2015 AL Wild Card Live Blog

7:50
Dave Cameron: Welcome to the postseason.

7:50
Dave Cameron: We’ll kick this thing off right before game time.

7:52
Dave Cameron: Astros

7:53
Dave Cameron: Astros

7:53
Dave Cameron: 1

8:01
Dave Cameron: He lost a bet

8:02
Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this party started.

8:02
Dave Cameron: Postseason baseball! Woo!

8:03
Comment From Hank
Kind of funny how “0” is not even an option in the first poll question.

8:03
Dave Cameron: The Astros went with 16 position players/9 pitchers, and one of those pitchers is Fiers, who they’re going to hold for extra innings. So it’s very unlikely they’re planning a bullpen game.

8:04
Comment From The Hamburglar
What would be the “most analytical” WS? In terms of front offices, coaches, overall organization philosophy?

8:04
Dave Cameron: Astros/Dodgers, by a good margin.

8:05
Comment From Catoblepas
Are you guys excited? I might not be a fan of the WC format were I a fan of these teams, but damn if a single-game playoff isn’t thrilling

8:05
Dave Cameron: Yeah, these games are awesome. I love this format.

8:05
Sean Dolinar: I really like the format. I like the emphasis on divisions and rivalries there. The games are a lot of fun to watch. I love them.

8:06
Dave Cameron: And sure, it’s unfair to base a whole team’s season on one game, but it’s more fair than not letting the second wild card get that one game at all.

8:06
Dave Cameron: Also, hi Sean.

8:06
Comment From Lyle
I love win or go home games, adds good drama.

8:06
Comment From Zack
NYY fan oh man do I suddenly hate this format when my team is in it

8:06
Sean Dolinar: The KC-OAK game last year and the PIT-CIN game in 2013 were something else.

8:06
Comment From Tucker
who wins?

8:06
Dave Cameron: I’m guessing Keuchel stays in too long, a RH takes him yard, and the Yankees win 4-3.

8:07
Comment From The Hamburglar
We, the viewers, win, Tucker.

8:07
Comment From Designated Bitter
Why is Keuchel still in there? He’s already thrown so many warm up pitches and it’s well known that pitcher numbers fall off once they start facing hitters

8:08
Comment From Blast Hardcheese
I like the format, I just wish the teams were re-seeded by record after this WC round. The Cards and winner of the Cubs/Pirates game should get to feast on the weaker Dodgers and Mets rather than having to play each other.

8:08
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say the Dodgers or Mets are weak at all.

8:08
Comment From Marty
AJ Hinch looks like the Astros’ DH

8:10
Comment From NathanLazarus
Television sports punditry is fun because you get to watch people express certainty about stochastic outcomes. Now time for an expected value of roughly half of the pundits to be proven wrong.

8:10
Sean Dolinar: I think you get bonus points for using ‘stochastic’ tonight.

8:10
Dave Cameron: Also, as a quick note to those new to live blogs; this is less Q&A and more just stream-of-consciousness/game reaction. So don’t get too mad if we aren’t answering your questions.

8:10
Dave Cameron: Let’s play baseball.

8:11
Comment From zkello
I was just about to ask how long it would take for them to mention his height… literally the first thing they said

8:11
Comment From The Hamburglar
Will Girardi have a quick hook on Tanaka?

8:11
Dave Cameron: I bet we see a decent amount of Adam Warren tonight.

8:13
Comment From kevinthecomic
altuve chased a couple that AB

8:13
Dave Cameron: He’s not a very patient hitter.

8:14
Dave Cameron: That was a pretty good cutter though.

8:15
Comment From Seanywack
Total strikeouts this game: over/under 15?

8:15
Dave Cameron: Way over.

8:15
Dave Cameron: I’ll guess 23.

8:16
Dave Cameron: If Astros keep chasing that cutter off the plate, he’s going to have a good night.

8:16
Comment From ralph
What are the thoughts on keeping the K-zone graphic on during real time pitches?

8:16
Sean Dolinar: It’s grown on me a lot.

8:17
Dave Cameron: Between innings adjustments; stop chasing outside cutter.

8:17
Comment From Terrible Ted
Why does Sportsnet insist on a ticker. Does ESPN continually run one? Currently annoyance level 3/10.

8:17
Sean Dolinar: ESPN always has a ticker.

8:18
Dave Cameron: All three outs on the outside cutter.

8:18
Comment From Tucker
Thanks for doing these chats, I don’t have any buddies in town that have my level of interest in baseball, so this is a great way to enjoy the games with others.

8:18
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out with us!

8:18
Comment From Owen S.
Gameday reports it as a slider, not a cutter.

8:18
Dave Cameron: The difference between the two for a lot of pitchers is pretty minor.

8:19
Sean Dolinar: They use a neural network (machine learning) to classify pitches based on speed, break, etc. It can/is wrong a lot.

8:19
Comment From Scott
Does Tanaka really have seven pitches? Are some just the same with minor changes to speed/horizontal movement?

8:19
8:20
Dave Cameron: I see four seam, two seam, splitter, cutter, curve, and slider. So six that seem distinct.

8:21
Comment From Kellen
Is comparing Correa to A-Rod’s career arc a bit extreme?

8:21
Dave Cameron: Yes.

8:21
Comment From big fan heh
jeff’s article got me wondering – besides knuckleballers, are there any pitchers who succeed without something resembling a fastball? Or is tanaka the closest we can get to that

8:21
Dave Cameron: There’s a ton of slider-heavy relievers.

8:21
Dave Cameron: But it’s pretty rare for a starter.

8:22
Comment From William
Hasn’t Tanaka used a changeup before?

8:22
Dave Cameron: His splitter is probably called a change-up by some. It’s the same pitch in most cases.

8:23
Dave Cameron: Pretty great location on that fastball.

8:23
Comment From james
splitter != changeup, just ask the arm

8:23
Dave Cameron: No, but from the perspective of what the pitch actually does, they serve the same purpose. Very few pitchers throw both.

8:24
Comment From Designated Bitter
The playoff beard is real

8:25
Comment From ralph
Did we already get your opinions on starting Chris Young and Gardner over Ellsbury?

8:25
Dave Cameron: Keuchel crushes lefties. It makes sense.

8:25
Dave Cameron: You can always sub in Ellsbury.

8:25
Comment From Sean
One of the first tv analysts i have heard say that stressful pitches are more important than # of pitches

8:25
Dave Cameron: Really? I heard that all the time.

8:26
Comment From Julian
If you could have anyone in the booth for the post season, who would it be?

8:26
Dave Cameron: Vin Scully and a mute person.

8:26
Comment From The Hamburglar
Seems cruel to include the mute person, he just said anyone, not any 2 people

8:26
Dave Cameron: I’m fulfilling a mute person’s dream of going to the World Series. Why not make them happy to?

8:28
Comment From MRod
% chance ARod juicing?

8:28
Dave Cameron: Depends on whether you think players have untestable stuff now. He’d be insane to take anything they can screen for. He probably gets tested every two hours.

8:28
Dave Cameron: (that’s hyperbole, but I guarantee you he got tested more than anyone else this year)

8:28
Comment From Jimbo
They should have a crowd noise only audio option. It would make it more like being there.

8:28
Sean Dolinar: Yes, I use that on video games all the time

8:28
Comment From Ben
There’s that Eric Cooper strike zone factoring in

8:28
Comment From james
it was a strike

8:29
Comment From Designated Bitter
k-zone liked it

8:29
Comment From Compton
Is there anywhere to find playoff WPA? I’m curious if, despite all of the narratives, A-rod is fairly close to someone like Jeter.

8:29
Dave Cameron: Player page, click “show postseason”

8:29
Comment From Brian
Gutsy pitch

8:29
Dave Cameron: He missed his spot by a few feet. That was fortunate more than anything, I think.

8:31
Comment From Guest
Why isn’t WAR calculated for postseason performance?

8:31
Dave Cameron: No defensive metrics.

8:31
Comment From Scott
Dave, both pitchers are throwing their fastballs up in the zone. If they really are missing their spots with their fastballs, what should a manager do??

8:32
Comment From Blast Hardcheese
Colby Rasmus with the boomstickin’

8:32
Comment From Excitement
And Rasmus cools Yankee stadium for a sec

8:32
Comment From Jimmy
There’s a Colby Jack

8:32
Sean Dolinar: #YouCantPredictBaseball

8:33
Dave Cameron: “You think it’s just a simple pop fly.” It was, in any other park.

8:33
Comment From Ben
3 straight 1st pitch swings

8:33
Dave Cameron: Astros probably want to try and get away from off-speed pitch counts.

8:34
Comment From HVC
Colby playoff bat flip game on point.

8:34
Dave Cameron: Speaking of bat flips, I really hope we see a Valbuena HR so we can see what he does. He’s got some flipping skills.

8:35
Comment From Keuchel Hernandez
Did Valbuena just bat flip on a single up the middle?

8:35
Dave Cameron: You are clearly not familiar with the Luis Valbuena experience.

8:35
Dave Cameron: I’m pretty sure he bat flips getting out of bed.

8:35
Sean Dolinar: Is that an album?

8:36
Comment From Keuchel Hernandez
To be fair how could anybody have experience with Valbuena hitting a ball in play for a hit?

8:36
Comment From Chad
Umpire hasn’t missed a pitch yet

8:37
Dave Cameron: He does a good job of not calling that outside crap that some umps give too much of.

8:37
Dave Cameron: And there’s the low strike.

8:38
Comment From Compton
This K-zone isn’t a perfect representation of the actual zone though, right? Like, it wouldn’t pick up backdoor strikes that a 3D zone would.

8:38
Dave Cameron: Correct.

8:39
Comment From Chad
What’s tanaka’ leash?

8:39
Dave Cameron: I’d bet he goes no more than 5. Maybe less.

8:41
Comment From Kelvin
What is the leverage index of this plate appearance?

8:41
8:41
Sean Dolinar: Leverage, win expectancy…all there!

8:43
Dave Cameron: And this is where Dave “Bullpen Game!” Cameron starts to suggest that you don’t want to let your starter bury you.

8:44
Dave Cameron: And that inning is a nice example of the power of sequencing: Tanaka gives up three walks and a HR and still only gives up 1 R.

8:45
Comment From Dodo Gregorius
So that inning was like a kamikaze pilot crashing into the ocean and surviving?

8:46
Comment From Compton
Dave I’m assuming you would have had the bullpen going and someone ready with the bases loaded in that situation. Would you have made a move for the Altuve at-bat, or would you have let Tanaka try to get out of it?

8:46
Dave Cameron: Well, I think the reality is that if you’re going to be as aggressive with the pen as I think teams should be in these games, you have to plan for it ahead of time. So you basically have someone ready every inning.

8:46
Comment From james
I think RE24 is much underappreciated

8:46
Sean Dolinar: It depends on what question you are trying to answer. RE24 doesn’t work well for talent evaluation.

8:47
Dave Cameron: I think by the time you react to a rally, it’s usually too late.

8:48
Comment From james
well, you mean it isn’t predictive

8:48
Sean Dolinar: also, yes.

8:48
Comment From Keuchel Hernandez
Would you eat Sushi from Yankee Stadium?

8:48
Dave Cameron: Sure. I eat sushi in Winston-Salem, NC. Can’t be worse.

8:48
Comment From Zack
Ive had YS sushi. Mediocre but acceptable

8:48
Dave Cameron: Eric Cooper has a tall strike zone; news at 11.

8:49
Comment From Crusty Juggler
McCann looked happy!

8:49
Comment From Catoblepas
Would you have started Murphy over McCann? Keuchel is soooo good against lefties

8:49
Dave Cameron: No, because McCann’s framing is valuable on defense, and Keuchel probably won’t pitch that deep.

8:50
Comment From Kelvin
You tip Buster off on that, Dave?

8:50
Dave Cameron: He tweeted out the link to the InstaGraphs post, so he definitely saw it.

8:50
Comment From The Hamburglar
That wasnt a strike either

8:51
Comment From The Hamburglar
You cant give Keuchel an inch off every corner of the plate

8:51
Comment From Hank
The Cooper zone is ridiculous. Consistently wrong = wrong.

8:51
Dave Cameron: These are close, to be fair. They aren’t insane calls. It’s just a big zone.

8:52
Comment From Will
How could someone this commonly known to have a wrong strikezone be allowed to be the HP ump in a win or go home game?

8:52
Dave Cameron: Lots of umpires have big strike zones.

8:52
Comment From Bonzo
Fangraphs spot on so far

8:52
Sean Dolinar: Blame Dave.

8:52
Dave Cameron: Cooper is actually a pretty good umpire.

8:54
Comment From Kris
Mendoza is infinitely better than Schilling

8:54
Comment From Bonzo
Won’t be up as late tonight at least with Cooper behind the plate

8:54
Dave Cameron: You don’t really want a small zone in a Yankee game.

8:55
Comment From Will
As a Yankee fan, I definitely do want a small zone.

8:55
Comment From Compton
Mendoza is great. She seems to only speak when she has something really insightful to say. Her good point per word ratio has to be the highest of anyone on ESPN.

8:55
Comment From xmx
% McCann calls a first pitch juuust off the plate to see if Cooper will be fair?

8:56
Comment From Angus
Jeff’s post about possession and the Yankees taking the most time on the mound was zero percent surprising.

8:56
Comment From The Hamburglar
At least the Yankees are working the count against Keuchel and getting him deep into counts

8:57
Dave Cameron: Yeah, so that he’ll have thrown too many pitches to stay in third time through the order and instead you get a bunch of better relievers instead.

8:58
Comment From Jason
HIgh bullpen ERA in september though…

8:58
Dave Cameron: Meaningless.

8:59
Comment From Rick
Keuchel actually allowed his lowest opponent OPS when he was facing batters for the third time. http://www.baseball-referen…

8:59
Dave Cameron: Yes, but that’s one of those things that is almost certainly a fluke.

9:00
Dave Cameron: Even the best pitchers don’t actually get better as the game goes on. They just get less worse.

9:00
Comment From Designated Bitter
Why do I imagine Dave Cameron as some batman-esque supervillain, watching the game from his underground lair. “Meaningless, you fools!”

9:01
Comment From Skore
@designated bitter, you thought batman was the villian?

9:01
Comment From Keuchel+Hernandez
Correa like Korea or Core-Eh-Yah? I hear both a lot

9:01
Dave Cameron: The latter.

9:02
Comment From Ben Kaspick
Tanaka over/under 4 innings

9:02
Dave Cameron: I’ll go under at this point.

9:02
Comment From Pierre
Dave are you getting somebody ready if you’re Girardi?

9:02
Dave Cameron: Yes.,

9:02
Comment From Chad
Whose up next?

9:02
Dave Cameron: Wilson, probably.

9:02
Dave Cameron: Or maybe Warren.

9:02
Comment From Will
Manager Cameron: Warren 3-4, Wilson 5, Betances 6-7, Miller 8-9?

9:02
Dave Cameron: Yeah, something like that.

9:03
Dave Cameron: Maybe Wilson to get out of the jam, then Warren to start an inning fresh.

9:03
Comment From Eric
Would you throw Severino for an inning?

9:04
Dave Cameron: I’d try not to.

9:04
Comment From Kris
Save Severino in case extras, no?

9:04
Dave Cameron: Yep.

9:05
Comment From Rick
Who’s in reserve for the Astros in extras?

9:05
Dave Cameron: Fiers.

9:05
Comment From Designated Bitter
Gattis could work an intentional walk to a 3-2 count

9:06
Dave Cameron: I’ve sometimes though a batter should swing at the 3-0 intentional walk pitch just to make them throw another one

9:06
Comment From Tom
So I watched Monday night football for the first time all season last night and absolutely loved ESPN’s broadcast. No bottom line, and the score bug disappears while plays are happening so literally the only thing to focus on is the action. Really disappointing they don’t do something similar for this game and just treat the broadcast as another Sunday night game

9:06
Sean Dolinar: ESPN only gets one Postseason broadcast. They won’t build a new graphics package for this game. Last year they used their MNF crew to shoot the game in PGH.

9:07
Comment From Keuchel+Hernandez
Sweet play by Headley there

9:08
Comment From Compton
Does Fangraphs have times through the order splits? I couldn’t see them on Keuchel’s splits page, but I thought I’ve seen them here before.

9:09
Dave Cameron: We don’t, yet. But there’s a big splits overhaul coming in the not too distant future.

9:09
Dave Cameron: You’ll like what we have when it’s up.

9:09
Comment From Yelp
Who is Sean Dolinar?

9:09
Dave Cameron: I feel like Sean should answer this one.

9:10
Dave Cameron: But apparently Sean doesn’t want to.

9:11
Dave Cameron: Sean joined the staff earlier this year, and has helped tremendously improve the graphics we use on the site. He also runs our Twitter account, and does pieces helping explain the foundations of the metrics we use.

9:12
Dave Cameron: Archer calls framing “presenting”

9:12
Dave Cameron: Wonder if that’s what the Rays call it internally

9:13
Dave Cameron: Archer is being really good here, by the way.

9:13
Sean Dolinar: I was checking Twitter! And tweeting about my Postseason hat. I have a background in video, design, chemistry and statistics. So somehow making graphics on FanGraphs makes sense.

9:13
Dave Cameron: Super useful commentary.

9:13
Comment From Phillies113
I’m really really enjoying listening to Chris Archer right now

9:14
Dave Cameron: That was not a very good swing.

9:16
Dave Cameron: Nasty change-up.

9:16
Dave Cameron: Okay, off to go say goodnight to the wife and dog. Back in a few.

9:17
Sean Dolinar: Boom!

9:17
Comment From kevinthecomic
KLOON!!!

9:17
Comment From Eric
first pitch

9:18
Comment From Tucker
That angle for that swing was sweet

9:19
Comment From filihok
All the homers

9:19
Sean Dolinar: Second behind Toronto this year. (230 HR)

9:19
Dave Cameron: Well that was crushed.

9:20
Comment From Compton
So Dave has the dog and the kid, Jeff has volcanoes, Eno has beer, and Kiley’s an asshole. Sean– what’s your thing?

9:20
Sean Dolinar: Computers, graphics, video production, stats, Twitter, 90s Music.

9:21
Comment From HVC
Unis may have changed but Carlos hitting a bomb & bat flipping in front of McCann was freakin awesome.

9:21
Comment From Hendrik
I am really enjoying this chat, but I’d probably enjoy it more if mlb.tv actually showed games live instead of a minute tape delay. God damnit

9:21
Sean Dolinar: International?

9:22
Dave Cameron: I don’t know if it’s intentional, but MLB.tv is always behind.

9:22
Dave Cameron: It’s not just for the postseason.

9:23
Comment From james
Tanaka can’t get outs in the strikezone

9:23
Dave Cameron: His entire game is getting out of zone chass.

9:23
Dave Cameron: chases.

9:24
Dave Cameron: out of zoine chass is something else entirely.

9:24
Comment From Barry
Like Archer, but, um, he needs to, um, stop saying um.

9:25
Dave Cameron: This isn’t his job. He isn’t trained for this. The insights are great. Ignore the ums.

9:25
Dave Cameron: What a meatball he just got away with.

9:27
Comment From Jimmy
Archer just invited himself to announce another half inning and everyone at home cheered.

9:28
Comment From Kris
He needs to do it after every half inning to see how long he can go haha

9:28
Comment From Luke
FanGraphs needs to get an interview with Archer now. Really enjoying his commentary.

9:28
Dave Cameron: For sure.

9:28
Comment From HVC
Screw the ums. Love the pitching insights and the “yes sir”s & “yes mam”s. MLB needs to be pushing smart, well spoken, über talented players like him as much as possible.

9:28
Dave Cameron: Agreed. I had no idea Archer was this insightful. MLB should absolutely be spotlighting guys like this.

9:29
Comment From Jenstrom
FanGraphs Audio with Archer?

9:30
Comment From Kris
Read this if you enjoy Archer. My first intro to him outside of baseball. http://www.sportsonearth.co…

9:32
Dave Cameron: Pretty great breaking ball there.

9:33
Comment From HVC
As much as Kruk sucks, overall booth has been good. Schulman & Mendoza solid. Archer awesome. No one talking over each other. No patronizing sermons from Uncle McCarver.

9:34
Dave Cameron: Yeah, this has been a very good broadcast.

9:34
Comment From Tim
Bullpen time for Yankees yet?

9:34
Dave Cameron: I’d probably hook him here.

9:35
Comment From Hank
Why does ESPN insist on that ridiculous behind the catcher angle every inning?

9:35
Dave Cameron: I have no idea.

9:35
Comment From Furious Onanist
It shows the ads all over the outfield

9:37
Dave Cameron: Gregorius has an arm.

9:37
Comment From Danny
Yankee defense has been outstanding.

9:37
Comment From Phillies113
Gregorius actually has TWO arms

9:38
Dave Cameron: Got away with one there.

9:38
Dave Cameron: Tanaka’s in-zone command has been lousy.

9:39
Comment From B
Girardi going to yank him after this inning?

9:39
Dave Cameron: No reason to keep pushing it.

9:39
Comment From Tim
It seems like a growing thing in sports broadcasts: on the field (or court) camera angles to make you feel like you’re there and at the same time giving you no idea what is going on.

9:39
Sean Dolinar: Cameras are becoming cheaper and broadcasts are becoming a better experience than being there. (Especially football.)

9:41
Comment From B
Honestly, I occasionally like seeing the field and fielders during a pitch. And I like seeing the ball out in play from behind the catcher, seeing players react, the path of the ball, etc. Not always, but sometimes.

9:41
Comment From Kevin
How much more do you want ideally out of Keuchel? Two more then hand it to the pen?

9:41
Comment From Phillies113
I think football is the only one where that’s true. The other major sports are so much more fun live.

9:41
Sean Dolinar: I love going to baseball games, but sometimes it’s so much easier to chill on the couch and watch the baseball game on TV.

9:41
Dave Cameron: Yeah, no way do you ask for more than six on three days rest in an elimination game.

9:42
Comment From bill
Any managers in this year’s post season have history of bad in-game decisions? (see Matt Williams last season)

9:42
Dave Cameron: Matheny is terrible in-game.

9:42
Dave Cameron: Ned Yost does weird things.

9:42
Comment From Yankee Fan
If Keuchel goes six up, six down next two innings, you can’t take him out though, can you?

9:42
Dave Cameron: Sure you can.

9:43
Comment From Compton
Do any teams have a strategic consultant or something similar to aid managers with in-game decisions?

9:43
Dave Cameron: He goes by the title “bench coach”

9:43
Dave Cameron: But they’re generally not statistically savvy.

9:44
Comment From Charles
calls for the institution of a “bench nerd.”

9:44
Dave Cameron: Teams have started to be allowed to have ipads (with wifi disabled), so that might be where they head first.

9:45
Comment From Compton
Do any teams have a stats guy in the dugout? I know from reading Big Data Baseball that Hurdle meets with the stats guys in between games, but has any team actually put them in the dugout?

9:46
Dave Cameron: No, no one has a pure stats guy as a coach.

9:46
Comment From DS
Astros win expectancy closing in on 75%- seems a little high at this point, no?

9:46
Dave Cameron: And non-uniformed personnel not allowed in the dugout.

9:46
Sean Dolinar: Teams fail to score runs in 70% of all innings, so not really. And 25% is a large chance to come back.

9:46
Comment From Chad
Kuech isn’t missing his spots. They aren’t pulling him

9:47
Dave Cameron: Refsnyder just missed one. The worm turns fast.

9:47
Comment From The Hamburglar
Ya whether you think they should pull him or not, theyre not going to until the Yankees make him pay

9:48
Dave Cameron: Which is the problem. In an elimination game, once you’ve waited until the pitcher has “paid”, you may have very well lost the game.

9:48
Dave Cameron: The biggest change that needs to happen in the dugout is proactive decision making versus reactive decision making.

9:49
Dave Cameron: The old “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” mentality is just not a good way to run a club.

9:49
Comment From Chad
This move is somewhat proactive

9:49
Dave Cameron: Yep.

9:50
Comment From The Hamburglar
Those are getting called for Keuchel

9:51
Comment From Will
But also win expectancy doesn’t account for the Yankees having Miller in Betances, so it’s probably a bit higher right?

9:51
Sean Dolinar: Yeah, Win Expectancy is generalized for all of MLB.

9:51
Dave Cameron: But most teams have good relievers, so the gap isn’t as huge as people make it out to be.

9:52
Comment From Nelson
Is Rasmus considered a bust or success based on his prospect status?

9:52
Dave Cameron: In between, leaning towards bust.

9:54
Comment From Catoblepas
Girardi one of the better managers, no?

9:54
Dave Cameron: I think so, yes.

9:55
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Gary Pettis is a man who likes clapping

9:55
Comment From Snarfle
Nice 1-6-3

9:56
Comment From Will
And now the only pitchers for the rest of the game should be Betances and Miller. On you offense.

9:56
Dave Cameron: I might try to get another inning from Wilson, so that you could cover 7-10 with Betances/Miller in case of extras.

9:56
Dave Cameron: But I can see the case for not worrying about 10th inning and just going to Betances now.

9:56
Comment From Pep
Is WAR calculated differently at each position? And if so, is WAR for relief pitchers different than WAR for starters?

9:56
Sean Dolinar: Yes, Position Player WAR, then SP and RP are both separate. RP WAR is weighted by leverage.

9:58
Comment From Pep
so 2.0 WAR for reliever is still average?

9:58
Dave Cameron: No, 2.0 WAR for a reliever is elite

9:58
Dave Cameron: Average is roughly 0.5 WAR per 60 innings for a reliever.

9:58
Sean Dolinar: 9 players with >= 2.0 WAR
http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:59
Comment From Chad
Pen better get moving

10:01
Comment From Matt
If you want to win a baseball game is Chad Qualls someone you want in the game?

10:01
Dave Cameron: Qualls is a good reliever, so yes.

10:02
Dave Cameron: Not a good swing from Gardner.

10:02
Comment From Luke
“Gets better as the game goes on.” This is wrong right?

10:02
Dave Cameron: He was this year, but it won’t last. No one has true talent improvement as they go deeper.

10:03
Comment From The Hamburglar
Yankees cant catch a break

10:03
Comment From Phillies113
WHOA

10:04
Dave Cameron: Pretty great play by Correa.

10:05
Comment From Crusty Juggler
Ban sliding?

10:05
Dave Cameron: Ban take out slides, yes.

10:05
Comment From Nelson
With catcher collisions now eliminated, will we ever see takeout slides illegal?

10:05
Dave Cameron: It’s inevitable, yes.

10:05
Comment From Dodo Gregorius
The motherf&%^ing NFL doesn’t even allow people to hit defenseless players below the knees. Wake the F up MLB.

10:06
Comment From Ben
hook?

10:06
Dave Cameron: For sure.

10:06
Comment From B
Not pulling him. Disagree?

10:06
Dave Cameron: Absolutely.

10:06
Dave Cameron: This is just a mistake.

10:07
Dave Cameron: And A-Rod missed a mistake.

10:07
Comment From Tucker
Jeff Luhnow exhales

10:07
Comment From Phillies113
Reminder: a positive outcome does not validate a bad strategic move

10:07
Comment From Henry
“A-Rod is not clutch” thing lives on

10:08
Comment From Designated Bitter
Does anyone miss catcher collisions?

10:08
Sean Dolinar: Not at all. I can watch 1970 All-Star Game highlights if I ever miss it.

10:08
Comment From Ben
if the astros don’t score, is keuchel done?

10:08
Dave Cameron: Keuchel shouldn’t throw another pitch.

10:08
Comment From Will
That was an inch away from radically changing the 2015 season.

10:08
Dave Cameron: Maybe more like a quarter inch.

10:10
Comment From Crusty Juggler
Does a move like that, or lack of a move, signify that managers have free reign during a game, even with “stats driven” organizations?

10:10
Dave Cameron: Yeah, no manager is going to accept being told what to do in-game by the front office.

10:11
Dave Cameron: Wilson out for a second inning. I like it.

10:11
Dave Cameron: Especially with the LH up.

10:12
Dave Cameron: Valbuena fouling off hittable pitches here.

10:13
Comment From Bip
Why haven’t any of my comments been chosen? I didn’t log in to this chat to look at other people talk!

10:14
Dave Cameron: If you’d like to host your own live blog and approve all your own comments, feel free.

10:14
Comment From Bip
Lol, i hope my sarcasm showed through, not sure if it did

10:15
Dave Cameron: Glad you were joking!

10:15
Comment From The Hamburglar
Seriously? Luis Valbuena?

10:15
Dave Cameron: He’s underrated.

10:15
Comment From zkello
How many people are on this chat? I want to know what the competition is. Maybe I’m just not funny…

10:15
Dave Cameron: Cover It Live says we have 1,000 people in here.

10:16
Comment From Yankee Fan
I know he didn’t do a full bullpen game like you would’ve wanted, but I’m pretty happy with Girardi’s bullpen use tonight.

10:16
Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is about as aggressive as you can realistically expect a manager to be, given that they have to deal with egos/media/etc…

10:17
Comment From Designated Bitter
It looks like the possibility of outcomes for this game (based on sequencing) ranged from ‘Astros win by a little’ to ‘Astros win by a lot’

10:17
Sean Dolinar: Embrace the uncertainty!

10:17
Comment From The Hamburglar
So if the game ends 2-0, it cant be blamed on giving Tanaka a long leash? It was simply 2 mistake pitches and the Yankees hitters doing nothing

10:18
Dave Cameron: Hard to blame the pitcher for losing when the other team throws a shutout, yes.

10:18
Comment From Chad
Things will get interesting with this Astros pen

10:18
Dave Cameron: Astros pen is fine. Don’t take September results too seriously.

10:19
Dave Cameron: Man that’s a great breaking ball.

10:20
Dave Cameron: And poor fastball command.

10:20
Comment From kevinthecomic
sabermetric thoughts on pinch runner in this situation?

10:20
Dave Cameron: Generally against PRs in non-one-run games, but Carter isn’t a good enough hitter to worry about losing later.

10:21
Comment From kevinthecomic
follow up question: should he attempt a steal here?

10:21
Dave Cameron: Yeah, you probably don’t want to count on getting two hits against betances.

10:22
Comment From Will
Which teams are most likely to embrace your wild card bullpen game? When’s the earliest that happens?

10:22
Dave Cameron: It will probably take a team qualifying without a frontline starter available to go in the WC game. So maybe a team who sneaks in on last day and chooses RPs over #3 starter.

10:23
Comment From Another+Draftkings+Commercial
and the pinch runner pays off

10:23
Sean Dolinar: The Dave Cameron Perfect Storm.

10:23
Dave Cameron: Just a classic “good pitch, bad result”

10:23
Dave Cameron: 99 times out of 100, that swing leads to an out.

10:24
Comment From DavisCornflower
Baseball, though.

10:24
Comment From Designated Bitter
Hunter Pence sees nothing wrong with that swing

10:25
Comment From Another+Draftkings+Commercial
Where else can you see a 6’9 behemoth taken down by a 5’6 guy? Only playoff baseball

10:26
Comment From Will
Wow he’s fast

10:26
Comment From Tucker
Jonathan Papelbon is very pleased with Springer’s hustle there.

10:26
Comment From Zack
provided the score doesnt change [ 🙁 ] this season was probably 95th percentile outcome for NYY, yes?

10:26
Dave Cameron: Yeah.

10:27
Comment From BDF
Hey, is Dolinar in Chicago?

10:27
Sean Dolinar: Pittsburgh, but I’ve lived in Chicago before.

10:27
Comment From William
Was this a bad performance on the part of Tanaka, or just a mediocre one?

10:28
Dave Cameron: I think he was pretty lucky to only give up two runs.

10:28
Dave Cameron: Lots of missed locations in the zone.

10:28
Comment From K-Man
What do you like/dislike most about playoff baseball?

10:28
Sean Dolinar: Like: How different it is from the regular season. Dislike: Afternoon games (If I have a 9-5 job).

10:29
Dave Cameron: Like: every play matters. Dislike: it can be a pretty grueling three weeks to cover.

10:29
Comment From Henry
Why does MLB actually play afternoon playoff games? Do they seriously not care that people can’t watch?

10:29
Dave Cameron: TV networks pay big money to have rights to broadcast only game going.

10:30
Comment From Jenstrom
You going to the game tomorrow, Sean?

10:30
Sean Dolinar: Yes, I’ll be there. Was there in 2013…best sporting event of my life.

10:31
Comment From Frank
Is there something to be said about the hot/cold nature of home run heavy offensives not working in the post season? Or at least riskier? It seems like if you’re relying on high value, low probability events, it’d be harder to consistently score runs like you need to to win postseason series. As opposed to the contact focused offense of the Royals, say.

10:31
Dave Cameron: No, there’s no evidence contact-oriented offenses do better in October, over a decent sample size anyway.

10:31
Dave Cameron: HRs are helpful in low run environments (like October) because they don’t require multiple good events in a row.

10:33
Comment From Kevin
feels like disadvantages of low contact/high power are evened out by the possibility that you hit a bunch of HR’s, no?

10:33
Dave Cameron: Yeah, any kind of offense can work in October as long as its the kind that scores runs.

10:33
Comment From B
For whom do you root, Sean?

10:33
Sean Dolinar: Pirates, but no one here believed me early in the season the Cubs were good, so there’s a bit of vindictiveness there. Also Wrigleyville will be insane for late round Postseason or WS. I’d like to experience that. Personally, it’s just nice to enjoy everything.

10:35
Comment From David Wiers
I think the Cubs can only play 46 night games per season, due to a local ordinance. Not sure if that includes the playoffs or not, though.

10:35
Sean Dolinar: They had to install lights to host Postseason games in 1988 otherwise they’d be played in another stadium.

10:38
Comment From kevinthecomic
i remember what a big deal it was in the 80s when they put the lights in at Wrigley — day games only prior to that

10:38
Dave Cameron: Really good breaking ball to start the AB.

10:38
Comment From Will
Will Tex and A-rod miss enough games next year to rotate in Bird for 400 at bats?

10:38
Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

10:39
Comment From Neil
Enough data to shift Bird?

10:40
Dave Cameron: Yeah, teams have minor league spray charts too, so it’s not just MLB data.

10:40
Comment From Another+Draftkings+Commercial
BIG pitch

10:40
Comment From Henry
Amazing fastball.

10:40
Comment From Charlie
Perfect pitch

10:41
Dave Cameron: Lots of breaking balls, then a perfectly located fastball.

10:41
Comment From Bip
Do you think that, for any big power hitter, particularly a LHB, you should shift until proven otherwise?

10:41
Dave Cameron: Pretty much, yes.

10:41
Dave Cameron: Don’t think I’d let Sipp face the RH here.

10:42
Comment From chuckb
Castro turned that pitch into a strike

10:42
Comment From Hank
Cooper is a joke – that one was 4-6″ off the plate!

10:42
Dave Cameron: I’m guessing Hank is a Yanks fan.

10:42
Comment From Q-Ball
Castro has stolen a couple strikes tonight, hasn’t he?

10:42
Dave Cameron: Yep.

10:43
Comment From Cb
Why is Sipp getting the benefit of the doubt on all these 3-ball count pitches on the edge?

10:43
Dave Cameron: The zone gets bigger when the pitcher is behind in the count, actually. That’s true for every pitcher.

10:44
Dave Cameron: The idea that umpires give more calls when pitchers are constantly throwing strikes isn’t true. The zone shrinks with two strikes, gets bigger with 2/3 balls.

10:45
Comment From B
Do elite pitchers get bigger zones? The Kershaws of the world.

10:45
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ve seen some research that better pitchers do get more calls, but it’s also about the type of pitcher; guys who throw crazy moving sliders don’t get calls as much as guys who throw fastballs.

10:45
Comment From exxrox
Is it all subconsious for umpires re: count? Are people aware/able to leverage that information at all?

10:46
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d imagine umpires are loathe to decide the outcome of the at-bat unless they have to, so when a walk is possible, they try to not call ball four, and when a strikeout is possible, they try to not call strike three.

10:46
Dave Cameron: Relative to their “normal” zones anyway.

10:47
Comment From Hank
Come on Dave, you seriously think this has been a well called game tonight?

10:47
Sean Dolinar: Decision aversion.

10:48
Dave Cameron: The zone has been fine. A little larger than normal, but that’s Cooper, and both teams knew that coming in.

10:50
Comment From Will
I don’t think it’s been atrociously bad, but saying “it’s fair because both teams knew about it” ignores the fact that walk-heavy teams will be more burned by a pitcher-friendly zone than a free-swinging team like the Astros.

10:51
Dave Cameron: Cooper’s zone has been exactly what you’d expect Cooper’s zone to have been. Hitters aren’t robots, and they have this data; it’s on them to adjust.

10:51
Dave Cameron: Also, Dellin Betances is good.

10:51
Comment From The Hamburglar
Cooper’s zone is notoriously high. Once again, this does not explain the constant outside pitches going the Astros way

10:51
Dave Cameron: This just isn’t true. http://www.brooksbaseball.n…

10:53
Comment From bill
Umpires should be trained to call a rule book zone. There shouldn’t be varieties. They are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars…

10:53
Dave Cameron: Maybe the fact that the best in the world at this still miss some pitches should tell you that this is really freaking hard?

10:53
Dave Cameron: This is like complaining that a player doesn’t hit 1.000.

10:54
Dave Cameron: My final comment on the zone for now: it has been a pitcher’s zone tonight, for both sides, which is totally consistent with what we expected based on Cooper’s track record, and any team that thinks they can go up their with “our approach” and not adjust to the umpire’s tendencies has no right to complain.

10:56
Comment From The Hamburglar
I think “pitch framing” and “presentation” sound pretty similar. Not sure why pitchers prefer one over the other

10:57
Dave Cameron: Framing sounds like you’re tricking the umpire, presenting sounds like you’re just helping them see what it actually is.

10:57
Dave Cameron: It’s more passive.

10:57
Comment From B
“Framing” is easy to say and slightly less ambiguous

10:57
Dave Cameron: Agreed.

10:58
Dave Cameron: Receiving is maybe the best option.

10:58
Comment From Brian
Ouch Yankee fans…I know Gardner has been bad the second half, but booing a guy in a playoff game? Seems a bit much.

10:59
Comment From Bip
I don’t get why people bother to distinguish between stealing strikes and preserving true strikes. Catchers want as many strikes as possible. End of story

10:59
Dave Cameron: Well, they’re different skills.

10:59
Comment From J.R.
Replacing home plate umpires with pitch f/x would help elite pitchers who can locate and elite hitters who can recognize borderline pitches. It’d be great for the game.

11:00
Dave Cameron: Yeah, until a server goes down in the World Series and everyone loses their minds because we don’t know what the call is.

11:01
Comment From Henry
Yankees fans and Eagles fans. So lovable.

11:02
Comment From chuckb
Serious question — do servers ever go down in pro tennis matches? They use sensors to detect in/out on serves.

11:02
Comment From Designated Bitter
pitch f/x isn’t there yet. It still gets stuff wrong too much

11:02
Sean Dolinar: PitchFX is great, but it’s limited. Technology is advancing. Same with Statcast.

11:02
Dave Cameron: The ball physically comes in contact with the ground. That’s a lot easier than detecting it passing through space.

11:04
Comment From drunken houston fan
i’m having more fun than you all

11:04
Comment From Real Houston Fan
If you were a true Houston fan you would have used Y’all

11:05
Sean Dolinar: You also have the variable vertical dimension of the strike zone.

11:05
Comment From Sun Tzu
One game, need a win starting pitcher: Kershaw, Arrieta, Greinke…KEUCHEL?

11:05
Dave Cameron: Kershaw is the right answer.

11:05
Dave Cameron: Everyone else is on a level below him.

11:06
Comment From Phillies113
What about if Kershaw pitched right handed? THEN who do you pick?

11:06
Dave Cameron: Price, maybe.

11:08
Comment From Fourchon
If you have to pick one hitter in a time game to hit, Trout, Bryce?

11:08
Dave Cameron: Assuming I didn’t just need a single? Harper.

11:09
Comment From preemptively sad yankees fan
i’m three outs away from washing away my sadness in dogfish head ipa and withering away into the night. hold me, fangraphs

11:09
Sean Dolinar: At least you have good beer. 60 min or 90 min?

11:10
Comment From Will
ReTrout v Harper: Wait really? That seems like a highly controversial opinion. It’s one year of an uber-elite performance vs 4…

11:10
Dave Cameron: Harper’s offensive season this year better than anything Trout has ever done at the plate. And it’s not like it was a surprise that Harper had this in him.

11:10
Dave Cameron: Trout’s a better player overall still, but I think Harper’s the best hitter in baseball right now.

11:11
Comment From The Hamburglar
Assuming the Astros win, rank the bullpens of the 4 AL teams

11:11
Dave Cameron: Royals, Jays, Astros, Rangers

11:13
Comment From John
How many super obnoxious CC Sabathia comments have you had to ignore in this chat, about?

11:13
Dave Cameron: 0, actually. Good folks showed up for the live blog.

11:13
Dave Cameron: A-Rod not looking for a 0-0 middle middle fastball.

11:13
Dave Cameron: Then chases the slider away.

11:14
Comment From B
Twice

11:14
Comment From kevinthecomic
yeesh, filthy

11:15
Comment From Tucker
Thanks again, really enjoyed this, but I must say I may be looking forward tomorrow more than any single baseball event in years. Two top 5 teams, Arrieta vs. Cole, with Jeff and Carson? Surely that was a mistake to schedule those two together, alone, to provide us content without supervision.

11:15
Dave Cameron: Tomorrow should be awesome.

11:15
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone. Congrats to the Astros.

11:15
Comment From Designated Bitter
Congrastros

11:15
Comment From Tom
Who we chatting with tomorrow?!?

11:15
Dave Cameron: Jeff/Carson

11:16
Comment From Evan
…in which we chat with Carson, insofar as he is available

11:16
Comment From Phillies113
Congratulations to Houston! Dave, Sean, thank you for the chat; this was great!

11:16
Sean Dolinar: No problem. It was fun!

11:16
Comment From preemptively sad yankees fan
see you guys tomorrow. if i get out of bed

11:16
Dave Cameron: Night all!





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

15 Comments
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Shane
8 years ago

I don’t know kw where to find this, or if I should ask it here but I’ve been wondering for a while.

Is there a state for 2 strike walks? Basically walk rate in counts that reach 2 strikes? Seems like this could be a good indicator of discipline, since a lot of walks are on 4 or 5 pitches with balls not close to the zone.

Hank
8 years ago
Reply to  Shane

There are splits here but it is only by specific count as far as I know, so you would need to blend the various strike counts.

Baseball reference has split data on all 2 strike counts (any 2 strike count combined). It’s on the player pages if you use the split tab, they also have league wide data

It’s raw walk counts and PA’s, so it’s not exactly what you are looking for (need to do some fancy division).