2015 LDS Live Game Blog Extravaganza
Today is one of the best (baseball) days of the year, and as such, we’ll be here to chat with you all day and all night long.
Here’s the lineup. Note that these things are constantly shifting, but this is the plan:
Texas vs. Toronto: Jeff Sullivan & David G. Temple
Houston vs. Kansas City: Craig Edwards
Chicago vs. St. Louis: August Fagerstrom
New York vs. Los Angeles: Paul Swydan & Neil Weinberg
There are rumors that Matthew Kory and Sean Dolinar may flit in and out as well. Either way, this is a murderer’s row of chatters. So stick with FanGraphs all day – we’ve got you covered like stink on a monkey!
| 11:52 |
: Hi everybody! Jeff and David will be with you post-haste. See above the chat window for the day’s schedule. I’ll see you tonight on the night shift!
|
| 12:24 |
: Hey Everybody. If I know Jeff, and I like to think I do, he’ll be late. But we’ll get rolling around 12:30 ET
|
| 12:25 |
: TOR
|
| 12:30 |
I’mma go with Cole Hamels here. It’s baseball. OF COURSE Toronto will go down 0-2 to a team nobody expected to be in the playoffs. |
| 12:31 |
To be fair no one expected Toronto to be in playoffs pre-trade deadline either. Even after the deadline they had their work cut out for them. They were what, 8 games back of the Yankees? |
| 12:32 |
: Organ should play every anthem at every game.
|
| 12:33 |
Blue Jays were hovering around 30-40% playoff odds before the trade deadline i believe |
| 12:35 |
: Hey guys + David/Jeff, I’ll be in and out of the chat throughout the day.
|
| 12:35 |
: Oh, hello.
|
| 12:36 |
: Hello friends!
|
| 12:36 |
: Hello friend!
|
| 12:36 |
: Sully!
|
| 12:36 |
: Fun fact: lots of people talk about the Blue Jays’ hitting prowess against lefties. They also led baseball in hitting against righties
|
| 12:37 |
: But now I’m fully aboard the Sam Dyson bandwagon. choo chooooooooooooo
|
| 12:37 |
: David, your keys to the game please
|
| 12:37 |
I see Fangaphs brought out the A team for the most important game |
| 12:37 |
: They sure did.
|
| 12:38 |
: My keys to the game: Ab, C#, and F minor.
|
| 12:38 |
: Just like all of my dreams, this morning finds me being talked at by Michael Keaton
|
| 12:39 |
: Honestly, it’s gotta be Stroman. Great story so far, but this is a very important game. DOES HE HAVE THE GUTS?!
|
| 12:39 |
: I hope he has all of his guts!
|
| 12:39 |
: Although he’s missing a little bit in his knees
|
| 12:40 |
Question: is it impossible to get MLB.tv playoff games with Comcast? |
| 12:40 |
: I would try the Fox Sports Go app.
|
| 12:40 |
: So we’re at 64/36 picking the Jays today. Probably a lot like yesterday!
|
| 12:41 |
Which will Texas miss more: Beltres bat or his glove? |
| 12:41 |
: bat
|
| 12:41 |
: I hope this reply technique doesn’t mess with the transcript software
|
| 12:42 |
I have a sinking feeling that the Rangers will win even though I picked Blue Jays |
| 12:42 |
: and still people will come to FanGraphs and think of us as experts!
|
| 12:43 |
Who at MLB keeps thinking it’s a good idea to have playoff games during the day on weekdays? Don’t they realize people have jobs? It’s not like playoff baseball is the best showcase of the game or anything, no reason to make it easier for fans to tune in. |
| 12:43 |
: I’ll be honest with you, I love these stacked days, but then I’m the rare person who does this as a job so what I think doesn’t and shouldn’t really matter to anybody
|
| 12:43 |
: Close-up of Banister spitting in the dugout
|
| 12:44 |
: I think some of it is so that the MLB playoffs don’t take as long as the NBA playoffs. Or the NHL for that matter.
|
| 12:44 |
: Dugout floors must be the most disgusting place in the world
|
| 12:44 |
Probably covered yesterday, but Arrieta hit the 2 pirates on purpose, right? |
| 12:44 |
: There’s no reason to think that. Pitchers usually don’t intentionally hit batters when they are winning a Postseason game/pitching a shutout. Watson, however, intentionally hit Arrieta.
|
| 12:45 |
: Another thing: MLB has been doing this day-time thing in the playoffs for a while. MLB also knows where its revenue is. If this were a real problem for them, this wouldn’t be the system
|
| 12:46 |
: Didn’t know DeShields has some semblance of opposite-field power
|
| 12:46 |
: God damn was he ever a smart pick
|
| 12:46 |
: If Colby Rasmus didn’t work out, Astros fans would be rioting over DeSheilds. Rule 5 pick.
|
| 12:46 |
: 0
|
| 12:48 |
Who has better hair: Kershaw-Greinke or deGrom-Syndergaard? |
| 12:49 |
: I think there’s a difference between long hair and good hair
|
| 12:49 |
The atmosphere… |
| 12:49 |
: Helps to have a roof, but I love the crowd. Almost like it’s better for the atmosphere for a team to have been not good for 20 years
|
| 12:49 |
: Two batters and a Rangers lead. Why not!
|
| 12:50 |
: Stroman already at 14 pitches without an out in the first
|
| 12:50 |
Dyson was a fairly rare mistake by Alex Anth. He called him up, a bit of desperation, referred to him as having one of the best arms in the organization. Pitched like 2 games, was sent down, and later DFA’d. Really didn’t need to put him on the 40 man in that situation. Like to have that one back. |
| 12:50 |
: but Mark DeRosa worked out so well
|
| 12:51 |
The Rangers always seem to defy expectations |
| 12:51 |
: Especially last year in the opposite direction
|
| 12:52 |
DeShields isn’t good, right? |
| 12:52 |
: he’s okay and will get better
|
| 12:52 |
: Wowza.
|
| 12:52 |
: Good god
|
| 12:52 |
: So Temple is a good 20 – 30 seconds ahead of me!
|
| 12:53 |
: I have regular, adult television.
|
| 12:53 |
: Like an adult
|
| 12:53 |
: Yes.
|
| 12:53 |
: Stroman has given up some hits and two premier Jays defenders have made mistakes. You could even say three premier defenders!
|
| 12:54 |
I feel like GB% should be a stat that can be easily introduced into the mainstream, but I never see it on broadcasts. |
| 12:54 |
ESPN gamecast or MLB Gameday? which is preferred for those without TV |
| 12:54 |
: Gameday does a pretty good job. Pretty up to date, too.
|
| 12:54 |
: They do at least talk about it sometimes. But yeah you’d think it would be simple
|
| 12:55 |
If Stroman hadn’t come back so strong, would the Jays still be the favorites in the AL? |
| 12:55 |
: I think so. Who’s better?
|
| 12:55 |
jeff was that gif of the guy on his ipad that you tweeted out actually shown on the broadcast? Just the guy standing there? |
| 12:55 |
: twice!
|
| 12:56 |
: That entire at-bat by Andrus was attempts for him to get himself out
|
| 12:56 |
: That was so weird! Why did that guy waste his money?
|
| 12:56 |
: What was he doing!
|
| 12:56 |
Hi boss. |
| 12:56 |
: Oh, hello.
|
| 12:57 |
: The 3 Unassisted DP.
|
| 12:57 |
: What in the god damn hell was that about
|
| 12:57 |
: What a huge play that was
|
| 12:57 |
What just happened? |
| 12:57 |
: Still trying to figure that out.
|
| 12:57 |
: Didn’t help that Hamilton didn’t exactly run down the line
|
| 12:58 |
: Stroman had 24 pitches with one out and runners on second and third. Now he has 25 pitches and the inning is over
|
| 12:59 |
Now that is a situation where diving into first makes sense |
| 12:59 |
: the Rangers should probably discourage Josh Hamilton from ever trying to do anything physically taxing
|
| 12:59 |
What happened to the clickety-clack sounds when a comment is posted? Someone didn’t like that or something? |
| 12:59 |
: it’s absolutely terrible
|
| 12:59 |
How often does a first baseman tag out a runner who was on third?!… and can you even look that up? |
| 12:59 |
: not easily. that’s a project for Retrosheet experts
|
| 1:00 |
: I could find that out if you gave me an hour.
|
| 1:00 |
: But mostly I don’t want to right now.
|
| 1:00 |
: Actually, I don’t even know if retrosheet would tell you.
|
| 1:01 |
For those of us “watching” on gameday from work…what happened? |
| 1:01 |
: Grounder to first. Colabello watched Fielder at third as he slowly inched toward first, and then when Colabello finally stepped on first for the out, Moreland had taken third behind Fielder, so Fielder was trapped and Colabello ran him down
|
| 1:02 |
: Yeah, Jeff!
|
| 1:02 |
colabello didn’t touch 1st. he tagged hamilton. |
| 1:02 |
: The win expectancy play log on FanGraphs hasn’t updated with the double play because I think it’s confused
|
| 1:02 |
: Oh right
|
| 1:02 |
: I meant to comment below. Anyway home run!
|
| 1:02 |
: You’re gonna ruin all the drama for me!
|
| 1:03 |
: Oh, sorry.
|
| 1:03 |
: No, it’s fine. It’s like I get to know the future
|
| 1:03 |
: Get real TV. It’s a tax writeoff for you!
|
| 1:04 |
: Off the bat Donaldson’s homer looked like a lineout to CF
|
| 1:04 |
: So the win-expectancy swing of the Rangers’ double play to end the first was 10%. Pretty big for something that early
|
| 1:04 |
: Josh Donaldson has a lot going on in his hair
|
| 1:05 |
: Jays and Rangers may have the two worst “thinks every fly ball is a HR” crowds.
|
| 1:05 |
: Though perhaps the Jays fans have been conditioned to think that.
|
| 1:05 |
: Yeah, I was gonna say
|
| 1:06 |
: After one, 2-1 Texas. Could be a lot worse than that
|
| 1:06 |
Every Jays fan is John Sterling |
| 1:06 |
: That’s just mean.
|
| 1:06 |
: Hamels this year, Phillies: .645 OPS against
Hamels this year, Rangers: .705 |
| 1:07 |
I really hate AL playoff baseball. Such mediocrity |
| 1:07 |
: I bet the Blue Jays are the best team in baseball
|
| 1:08 |
Don’t you have friends with TVs who you can leech off of for just this situation? That’s presumably what friends are for |
| 1:08 |
: friends have jobs. also I wouldn’t want to chat at a friend’s house
|
| 1:08 |
“Cord cutters” only talk about two things: 1) how smart they are for canceling cable 2) how they wish watching stuff without cable wasn’t so annoying. |
| 1:08 |
: we also talk about no longer seeing so many Viagra commercials
|
| 1:09 |
: Stinky is my new favorite nickname
|
| 1:09 |
It must be really hard to go without Viagra commercials |
| 1:09 |
: actually it’s not hard at all
|
| 1:10 |
: Four-pitch walk to Odor, three pitches borderline strikes
|
| 1:10 |
: Mark it – 1:09 PM ET. The first genitalia joke has been made.
|
| 1:10 |
:
|
| 1:11 |
: Nice play, Stinky.
|
| 1:11 |
If you didn’t see Viagra commercials then how do you know if your unit works. |
| 1:11 |
: watching Stroman’s pitches
|
| 1:11 |
: That was brilliant baserunning
|
| 1:12 |
: Or maybe that’s just fundamentals, who knows, but that was awesome
|
| 1:13 |
I cut the cord (when I was broke) and came back (when I started making more money). I may not love constant draftkings and cialis ads, but I hope I’m never broke again… |
| 1:13 |
: Cable is like a hundred dollars a month. Or more! It’s the worst
|
| 1:13 |
Why did Colabello double clutch that throw? It sure looked like he saw him rounding second |
| 1:13 |
: Nowhere to throw the ball
|
| 1:14 |
“Was the tag held during the 1/50th a second he was off the base?” is the “did the football move 1mm as he hit the ground?” of baseball plays. Absurd to call a guy out on this garbage. |
| 1:14 |
: rule’s a rule though, right? where do you draw the line?
|
| 1:14 |
Gameday watcher. Is the challenge legit? |
| 1:14 |
: close, but call upheld
|
| 1:15 |
: That entire run was scored by the margin of one hair
|
| 1:15 |
: Dang. That was a good throw, too.
|
| 1:15 |
: Odor draws borderline walk, safe by a borderline call at third, safe by a borderline call at home
|
| 1:16 |
Wouldn’t it be amazing if there was a Texas-St. Louis World Series rematch this year? |
| 1:16 |
: No. That would be the worst, actually.
|
| 1:16 |
: That would be the worst!
|
| 1:17 |
wtf happened at first there |
| 1:17 |
: isn’t this supposed to be new turf
|
| 1:17 |
Yankees/Cardinals or Yankees/Dodgers wouldn’t be the worst? |
| 1:17 |
: Probably Miami/San Diego would be the worst.
|
| 1:18 |
: Fernandez/Stanton in the playoffs? No, I’ll take that
|
| 1:18 |
: I wouldn’t have minded this year’s Yankees. And I like this year’s Dodgers.
|
| 1:18 |
: Dang it, good point.
|
| 1:19 |
Cubs/Miami would be the best for Back to the Future II truthers |
| 1:19 |
: Oh man, I just re-watched that movie this week. It does NOT hold up.
|
| 1:19 |
Why are there two win expectancy lines, ~8% apart? |
| 1:19 |
: one is raw average win expectancy, and the other factors in the team matchup with home-field advantage built in
|
| 1:20 |
Miami/Padres would also be really weird because they’re both in the NL. |
| 1:20 |
: I know. These are called jokes.
|
| 1:20 |
On effectively wild they were talking about one replay where the basemen’s glove lace touched the runner and called him out. I’m not sure if they were serious or not. |
| 1:20 |
: With replay review, you have to define where the lines are, because they have to exist. Where does the glove “end”? It’s not an easy thing to resolve
|
| 1:21 |
: Mistake by the Beltre replacement!
|
| 1:21 |
Since I can’t watch and make fun of MLB network announcers, how are they doing? |
| 1:21 |
: I’m always soft on announcers. At least those who aren’t Harold Reynolds. But I like Kaat.
|
| 1:21 |
: Don’t know if we can just blame the turf though
|
| 1:22 |
: I made a comment that just disappeared.
|
| 1:22 |
: let’s blame inanimate objects!
|
| 1:22 |
: Maybe your existence is flickering
|
| 1:22 |
This game is going to be a classic. Book it. |
| 1:22 |
: rooting for a brawl
|
| 1:22 |
: That’s what I get for crapping on BTTF 2.
|
| 1:23 |
Colabello MVP |
| 1:23 |
Colabello, the chosen one of the god of BABIP |
| 1:23 |
: Bob Costas having some trouble counting.
|
| 1:24 |
: Donaldson: 154 wRC+
Encarnacion: 150 Bautista: 147 Colabello: 142 |
| 1:24 |
: And we’re tied!
|
| 1:24 |
: Haha, Jeff is in the past.
|
| 1:24 |
: No we’re not!
|
| 1:24 |
: I like the way Choo watched that one go over his head. Great defense!
|
| 1:25 |
: Hamels just threw a couple pretty bad pitches
|
| 1:25 |
To be fair to Bob, I think most people assume someone will score from second on a ball of the wall |
| 1:25 |
: Truth.
|
| 1:25 |
: Matthew Kory is here now.
|
| 1:25 |
: Have I been fired?
|
| 1:26 |
: How many of us *are* there right now
|
| 1:26 |
: firing you isn’t my department
|
| 1:26 |
Do people actually get fired from Fangraphs? |
| 1:26 |
: yes!
|
| 1:26 |
: I’m not sure any of us are really here, man.
|
| 1:26 |
: and NOW we’re tied
|
| 1:27 |
: Isn’t coming home with that ball the right call? Keep the lead at all costs?
|
| 1:27 |
: I’m not quick enough with the win expectancy
|
| 1:28 |
are all comments posted, or is there edited happening? |
| 1:28 |
: We select what we can respond to.
|
| 1:29 |
: Now I’m going to try to be. Give me a minute
|
| 1:29 |
so far best game of the post season? |
| 1:29 |
: through two innings, it’s sure been exciting. lots of errors, and the pitching hasn’t been particularly great so depends what you want in a game
|
| 1:30 |
: And I think there are 4 FG staffers in the chat right now. Surprisingly no one shares the same first name.
|
| 1:31 |
As a 20 something year old jays fan that has no playoff rooting experience… this game is going to be the death of me! |
| 1:31 |
: the playoffs are painful. the whole experience is better when your team doesn’t make it. but if your team wins though
|
| 1:31 |
: I only respond to people named Matt
|
| 1:32 |
: So I did some math!
|
| 1:33 |
: With Alberto going for the double play, the Jays’ win expectancy wound up at 51%. Had Alberto gone for the one out at home, the Jays’ win expectancy would’ve been 48% (assuming the out)
|
| 1:33 |
Without doing any math…the Jays are the best offense in baseball. Fewer outs to get means fewer opportunities to score means take the sure double play. No? |
| 1:33 |
: Early in the game, you usually take outs over runs.
|
| 1:33 |
: So it actually would’ve been arguably smarter to go for the out at home to keep the lead for Texas
|
| 1:34 |
: But then, it wouldn’t have been a force, and if there had been a rundown…
|
| 1:34 |
: It was probably a coin-flip play
|
| 1:34 |
: That’s what I was thinking.
|
| 1:34 |
: About the rundown, I mean.
|
| 1:35 |
: In conclusion, it was fine
|
| 1:36 |
Please tell me where I find this win expectancy chart you are referring to |
| 1:36 |
: ftp://ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa/
|
| 1:36 |
You guys are mad about DraftKings ads but I have to see Canadian election ads |
| 1:36 |
: I don’t see any ads at all!
|
| 1:37 |
Thoughts on the Lloyd McClendon firing? |
| 1:37 |
: predictable
|
| 1:38 |
Hey guys, just got home to watch the game. Was hearing Rick Sutcliffe whining about a small zone basically my whole drive home. Has it been bad? |
| 1:38 |
| 1:38 |
Predictions/suggestions for M’s manager? |
| 1:38 |
: sounds like it’ll be Tim Bogar
|
| 1:40 |
Leash for Stroman/Hamels? |
| 1:40 |
: They’ll get the benefit of the doubt, but both teams like their bullpens. Day off tomorrow. 100 – 110 pitches
|
| 1:40 |
: I’ve never been a fan of how broadcasters make advance metrics sound mystical and mysterious.
|
| 1:40 |
: Ken Rosenthal talking about win probability added on national television
|
| 1:40 |
: Two announcers just basically saying that they are too dumb to understand advanced metrics.
|
| 1:41 |
: I don’t know the WAR or WPA formulas by heart, either. But I understand what they represent. And I trust that they’ve gone through enough peer review to be valid.
|
| 1:42 |
: There’s something about society today where it’s broadly accepted to admit mathematical ignorance
|
| 1:42 |
: Like it’s a feature, instead of a bug
|
| 1:42 |
: I don’t need to know the physics behind how the Earth revolves around the Sun to trust that it does.
|
| 1:42 |
: I think the announcers think it gives them credibility to talk down to analytics like that. (sorry to disappear, my computer crashed)
|
| 1:43 |
: wait, the Earth does what??
|
| 1:43 |
: It’s the “aw, shucks” approach, I suppose.
|
| 1:43 |
: Yeah, they’re not hurting anyone. We’re all going to keep watching. But it’s not a thing to celebrate, being dumb at math. math is important!
|
| 1:43 |
: We know from Twitter and his columns that Rosenthal isn’t some anti-stat neanderthal
|
| 1:44 |
: I kind of see former players doing it, as they do bring an alternate perspective. But pure broadcasters doing it is embarrassing.
|
| 1:44 |
: being dumb in general is celebrated in places far more important than sports, but I suppose that puts us on a course we don’t want to be on
|
| 1:44 |
: I’m done ranting now.
|
| 1:44 |
Math is really important! |
| 1:45 |
Pretending you’re dumb plays well with American viewing audiences, historically |
| 1:45 |
: and non-historically
|
| 1:45 |
: I read that as “Matt is really important”
|
| 1:45 |
Legitimate reason to gripe about the strike zone if you are a Toronto fan? Stroman getting squeezed and Hamels isn’t? |
| 1:45 |
: zone’s fine
|
| 1:45 |
: I know most of you aren’t watching TV, but I hate this GEICO commercial so much.
|
| 1:46 |
That can’t be right. “Most” aren’t watching on TV? |
| 1:46 |
: I figured most were watching via .TV or some sort of Gameday thing.
|
| 1:46 |
Mostly for Jeff, since he’s the one I read the most often, but others feel free to chime in…do you talk the way you write, or is your “writer’s voice” significantly different? |
| 1:46 |
: I don’t really know how to answer this because I don’t often talk about baseball out loud. But I don’t think I change the way I try to communicate when I write; everything is kind of a first draft
|
| 1:46 |
Which GEICO commercial is playing? |
| 1:46 |
: The stupid effing golf one.
|
| 1:47 |
: The analytics revolution in baseball goes way beyond WAR and WPA and ‘formulas’. Teams are collecting data and measuring players in much more detail than what’s available publicly. Much of that wouldn’t be looked down upon because of ‘math’.
|
| 1:47 |
Josh Hamilton has gone full Southern gentleman with his facial hair. |
| 1:47 |
: and with his sprinting speed
|
| 1:48 |
I had to google who Tim Bogar is. Any thoughts on him? |
| 1:48 |
: not even a single one
|
| 1:48 |
: but Sean, math is hard! ha ha?
|
| 1:48 |
: Every day, around this time, the old lady across the street comes out in her bathrobe and starts calling for someone named JJ
|
| 1:48 |
: I have yet to see JJ show up.
|
| 1:48 |
: Once more, here’s the day’s strike zone: http://www.brooksbaseball.n…
|
| 1:49 |
: Nothing real egregious
|
| 1:49 |
: Bogar was Boston’s third base coach for a few years. They called him “send ’em in” Bogar which A) tells you something and B) tells you nothing
|
| 1:49 |
: John Gibbons towering over Ken Rosenthal like a Seattle high-rise over the Up house
|
| 1:50 |
: Rosenthal: John’s Nipples, can you tell me about Stroman’s start?
|
| 1:50 |
Im an Astros fan. If we beat the Royals, I should be rooting for Toronto or Texas? (Silver Boot Rivalry aside) |
| 1:50 |
: Texas. easier to get through
|
| 1:51 |
: Stroman has really started to turn it on with that inside sinker against lefties
|
| 1:52 |
I don’t know what Jim Kaat was doing from 1984 until he was hired by the MLB Network (not looking it up), but he gives off a real cleaned-up-hobo vibe. |
| 1:52 |
: He always came off as and old prospector to me
|
| 1:53 |
: But that could be because I’m rewatching Deadwood for like the 15th time.
|
| 1:53 |
Did the Jays “fix” EE’s swing like they did Bautista’s, or is it just coincidence? |
| 1:53 |
: He was already talented and powerful. He didn’t need the Bautista overhaul; just needed some polishing
|
| 1:53 |
Is there any sinker in the game of baseball better than Stroman’s right now? Among starting pitchers? |
| 1:53 |
: This is a good question.
|
| 1:53 |
does baseball predate the action in deadwood? |
| 1:53 |
: Yes.
|
| 1:54 |
: I don’t know if there’s a better starting sinker than Stroman’s. If there is, it’s not by very much
|
| 1:54 |
: I’ll say again it compares well to Roy Halladay’s sinker
|
| 1:55 |
Was just gonna ask, based on gameday it looks like Stroman has found his stuff. How does he look on the broadcast? |
| 1:55 |
: The easy narrative is he’s gotten over his early jitters. Could be total bullshit but the timeline works
|
| 1:57 |
:
 I think my dog is bored with baseball. |
| 1:59 |
David does your wife still do Roller Derby? |
| 1:59 |
: Yes.
|
| 2:00 |
Do you know, or do you know where I could find out, specific player contract aav for the “luxury tax”? I’m thinking about Ryan Braun’s contract – if it’s 5/105 starting next year it’s easy, but if it’s 13/150 for an aav of $11.5 million, then I would think it becomes a more appealing contract to that special subset of teams that pay the tax. |
| 2:00 |
: After three minutes of research, I believe the newer CBA decided to treat such contracts as separate. So the second is independent of the first. Used to be, the timing mattered, but I don’t think it does anymore
|
| 2:01 |
Give me a break, Arrieta’s sinker? |
| 2:01 |
: I’m sorry, are you offended?
|
| 2:02 |
I’ve only seen a little Deadwood, but I’ll bet Kaat’s character didn’t live very long. |
| 2:02 |
: he wanted to get a hit! but I agree, I’d have taken a strike
|
| 2:02 |
: Great, we broke Matthew Kory.
|
| 2:02 |
: and now I’ve responded to the wrong comment. arg
|
| 2:03 |
This strike zone is nothing if not inconsistent. |
| 2:03 |
: this is the one I was trying to respond to!
|
| 2:03 |
: nope nope that wasn’t it either. oh good gosh
|
| 2:04 |
: see? being dumb about something (in this case chatting) is wonderful!
|
| 2:04 |
I just don’t understand, why FS1 and MLBNetwork don’t have strikezone graphic… |
| 2:04 |
: Different graphic packages or technology on their production trucks. The only broadcast I’ve been impressed with is ESPN. IMO, you’re better off with Gameday.
|
| 2:04 |
baseball twitter is pretty annoying after an announcer goes on an anti-saber rant. aren’t we all used to it by now? |
| 2:04 |
: the internet in general thrives on any provocation
|
| 2:05 |
FG needs a new Matthew it looks like. |
| 2:05 |
: am I responding to the right comment here? Let’s see!
|
| 2:06 |
Arrieta might throw a good hard two-seamer, doesn’t dip anywhere near Stroman’s. |
| 2:06 |
: Yeah, I think of Stroman as having a true sinker and Arrieta having more of an awesome two-seamer. I know that’s splitting hairs
|
| 2:07 |
Jeff, to your point about the strike zone, the point is not the egregious calls. Its the borderline ones, when the ump is not consistent. And if you look at all the strikes out of the zone in Brooks, they are all against Toronto |
| 2:07 |
: There’s no such thing as borderline consistency. Umpires can’t have borders defined that perfectly, so because they’re humans there *has* to be some area where calls are 50/50
|
| 2:07 |
: sweet shit Tulo
|
| 2:08 |
: Remember, the umpires cant’ see those yellow strikezone boxes that we can.
|
| 2:08 |
: justify your existence, Tulo
|
| 2:08 |
just want to say – you guys have made the viewing experience of this game about 100x better, you guys are the best |
| 2:09 |
: Let’s see if this works…
|
| 2:09 |
:
|
| 2:09 |
: Splendid!
|
| 2:11 |
If the Blue Jays could go back to the trade deadline, do you think they would or wouldnt trade for Tulo again? |
| 2:11 |
: I don’t think they’d undo anything they did
|
| 2:11 |
: that was what they call a hellovaplay
|
| 2:12 |
Jeff, can you please do this for every moment of the game going forward? Thanks in advance |
| 2:12 |
: I wonder if I can live-gif
|
| 2:12 |
slightly off-topic, but is Chris Young the pitcher ever going to be respected for his contact management? |
| 2:12 |
: he has a job, right?
|
| 2:13 |
: Pillar with a weak double. or, as they also call that, a double
|
| 2:13 |
After 22 years, I forgot how intense playoff ball is when you’re engaged in it. I’m already thinking Toronto has yet to lead in this series, but it’s just the middle of the second game. Every pitch counts now! |
| 2:13 |
: It’s so different. It’s a wonderful reminder for fans of bad teams that baseball is awesome when it matters
|
| 2:14 |
: I like that bunt by Goins against the lefty
|
| 2:14 |
Nice to sell Beltre getting some “HoF” chat by Costas and Co. |
| 2:14 |
: see, they’re not totally anti-stat
|
| 2:15 |
Kevin Pillar = underrated. Kevin Pillar = 2016 AJ Pollock? |
| 2:15 |
: Pillar just slugged .399 and Pollock just slugged .498
|
| 2:16 |
I HATE BUNTS. FREE OUTS. |
| 2:16 |
: it’s at least debatable b/c it brings up Revere with one out, not the ideal guy to drive in a run on a sac fly
|
| 2:16 |
: And the Jays are in front!
|
| 2:16 |
:
 Dog update. |
| 2:17 |
How much can a hitter actually place those off the end of the bat hits like Pillar’s? |
| 2:17 |
: they’re typically accidents after swings at bad pitches
|
| 2:17 |
: Uh, David, that’s a couch
|
| 2:18 |
Pillar as a good major league starter is already more than 99% Blue Jays fans predicted for him, let’s not be greedy |
| 2:18 |
That dog rules. Golden doodle? Can this be baseball and dog chat? |
| 2:18 |
: We think so? He was a rescue. I’m not bragging, I’m just saying that’s why we don’t know.
|
| 2:18 |
Has anyone studied the effect on slugging average of weak doubles down the line versus hard doubles to the gap? Does it all come out in the wash? Do some players have inflated SLG because they bloop doubles over the heads of corner infielders? |
| 2:18 |
: yeah, it’ll make some difference. same as triples instead of doubles, or hustle-doubles instead of singles. not easy to isolate but with some players you get an artificial SLG boost
|
| 2:19 |
should hamels still be in? |
| 2:19 |
: if I say yes he’ll give up more runs, but I think he’s better than anyone else the Rangers would put in so yeah [ducks]
|
| 2:19 |
: Wouldn’t be shocked if Hamels got another inning
|
| 2:20 |
: Hachi Machi that went a long way.
|
| 2:20 |
: Maybe not another inning
|
| 2:20 |
: Granted that pitch was almost impossible to hit fair
|
| 2:21 |
: if that goes past the pole foul but comes all the way around the world and lands fair in the left field stands is it a homer?
|
| 2:23 |
Compare 2013 Pollock (.269/.322/.409/ 98 wRC+) to 2015 Pillar. Pretty similar lines, at the same age. Pillar has growth room. |
| 2:23 |
: Pollock more of a hard-contact sort; Pillar less disciplined. not saying improvement isn’t possible, but Pollock is a super high bar
|
| 2:23 |
In terms of mid-career turnarounds, Bautista or Zobrist the bigger surprise? |
| 2:23 |
: Bautista was bad for 1500 plate appearances. Zobrist was bad for 300
|
| 2:24 |
Almost every out bautista has made this series has been a popup |
| 2:24 |
: Bautista’s career IFFB% has hovered right around 15%. This seems like a lot.
|
| 2:24 |
: He has a style and he sure as shit sticks with it
|
| 2:25 |
: He also just hits a lot of fly balls in general.
|
| 2:25 |
a guy with no TV, a guy with a rescue dog…. where is the vegan? |
| 2:25 |
: Kory is a vegetarian!
|
| 2:26 |
: this is true! I do not eat meat!
|
| 2:27 |
Spin Rate on the Teevee |
| 2:27 |
: and the craziest thing is we just accept it now
|
| 2:28 |
Jeff, can you GIF that Stroman strikeout of Choo? |
| 2:28 |
: Choo lined out?
|
| 2:28 |
: Might have to follow this chat with a little front-page Stroman post. We’ll see
|
| 2:29 |
since I can’t watch the game on tv, how does Stroman look now compared to the first two innings? obviously his results are promising |
| 2:29 |
: My sense is he’s sharper but my sense often leads me astray. He’s been much more economical
|
| 2:29 |
There should be a daily Stroman post. He’s so entertaining and loveable! |
| 2:29 |
: This is my argument
|
| 2:29 |
: I have to step away for a bit. six year olds are demanding I play Uno with them
|
| 2:30 |
: That totally could’ve been a strike
|
| 2:30 |
Kory got six different women preggers simultaneously? |
| 2:30 |
: hextuplets
|
| 2:31 |
Any Rangers fans in the house? |
| 2:31 |
: if so, they’re quiet
|
| 2:32 |
: Love Stroman’s emotion on the mound
|
| 2:32 |
: Stroman in slow motion is pleasing.
|
| 2:32 |
: Hitters don’t seem to mind. Pitchers are such sissies
|
| 2:33 |
: Hamilton now hitless in 27 consecutive postseason at-bats!
|
| 2:33 |
And you’d think the Canadians would be distracted by the start of the hockey season. |
| 2:33 |
: Leafs fans know who butters their bread
|
| 2:34 |
: Ottawa is your team, right Jeff?
|
| 2:35 |
: Last year, I met some Ottowans at a curling tournament. Some of the nicest people I’ve ever come across.
|
| 2:35 |
if both were free agents, would you give the bigger contract to Price or to Stroman? |
| 2:35 |
: Price by AAV, Stroman by length of commitment
|
| 2:36 |
Do you believe MLB is returning to Montreal anytime soon? And will it be expansion, or relocation (***cough***Tampa***cough***)? |
| 2:36 |
: I can’t see a team moving to Montreal anytime soon.
|
| 2:38 |
Watching Stroman pitch… did the Astros leave a lot of wins on the table moving similarly small statured Billy Wagner to the pen? (Or am I just getting greedy.) |
| 2:38 |
: I don’t remember their reasons for moving him. His minor-league numbers as a starter were strong, albeit with some control issues
|
| 2:39 |
Hamilton has to be the most prolific swinger-over-the-top-of-curveballs in history, doesn’t he? |
| 2:39 |
: it’s how I’ll remember him
|
| 2:40 |
As someone living an hour out of Ottawa…the Sens bandwagon is the worst pro sport. |
| 2:40 |
: didn’t even know one existed
|
| 2:40 |
Baseball looks like a game that is very hard to play for everyone involved |
| 2:40 |
How real is Price’s playoff futility? Will it drop his payoff this off season? |
| 2:40 |
: He’ll still get paid big money, but a strong start or two would earn him a few extra million
|
| 2:41 |
Think Colabello can have a similar season next year? |
| 2:41 |
: useful, yes, but not this useful
|
| 2:41 |
: Does anyone else think it’s funny that we can say “erection” in commercials, yet if someone said something like “labia” everyone would lose their shit?
|
| 2:42 |
: Or is this not the proper place for such discussions?
|
| 2:42 |
What are the odds for the rest of the series, depending on what happens today? Rangers win, TEX has ~80% odds? Jays win, TOR has ~55% odds? |
| 2:42 |
: I’d say that’s about exactly right
|
| 2:43 |
do we think Cole Hamels erred in not accepting trade to Astros? |
| 2:43 |
: No. He didn’t want to be there
|
| 2:44 |
: Stroman had 25 pitches in the first inning. 57 in 5 since
|
| 2:44 |
: Rouglas is an even better name than Rougned
|
| 2:44 |
: I wonder how Kory’s Uno game is going.
|
| 2:44 |
I bet he is crushing |
| 2:45 |
: I know his kids. It’ll be a while
|
| 2:45 |
On that note about Colabello, think he has any trade value? Controllable til 2020 |
| 2:45 |
: not much more than Danny Valencia
|
| 2:45 |
Well, that’s kind of a catch 22 isn’t it? Montreal won’t build a stadium unless MLB guarantees a team, while MLB won’t guarantee a team without a new stadium |
| 2:45 |
: Any Canadians, please chime in on this. The feeling I got from visiting Montreal, is that the city/Quebec won’t shell out money like US cities do. They just paid off Olympic Stadium.
|
| 2:46 |
: Duke is an expensive place to get a sociology degree
|
| 2:46 |
: That must sting like all hell on the turf
|
| 2:46 |
: Neat little seven-pitch inning. Stroman should probably be done, though
|
| 2:47 |
Canadian here. Quebec is a mess, economically and politically. They have tons of infrastructure to fix before even thinking of building a stadium. |
| 2:48 |
In a vacuum, if you could have any pitcher in the ALDS/ALCS going forward (excluding Kershaw because, duh), would who take? And does the answer change based on (likely) contract/AAV? |
| 2:48 |
: Probably Arrieta or Sale
|
| 2:48 |
RE: Montreal. I think its doubtful anyone there will shell out cash for a MLB stadium. Lots of money/effort already there to bring a NHL team back to Quebec City. |
| 2:48 |
: And they didn’t even get that yet.
|
| 2:50 |
if Cole were a robot sans human feelings, though, he would have been better off getting in with the Astros earlier on the bell curve of success |
| 2:50 |
: Can’t really say a guy made the wrong decision by going somewhere he preferred. It’s his life
|
| 2:50 |
: Slamming Coltrane reference from Costas
|
| 2:50 |
Does not seem right to sit Stroman now, but Cecil against those lefties coming next… |
| 2:50 |
: Three times through the order. It’s probably time; the bullpen is good
|
| 2:50 |
If 25% of the people who claimed to be expos fans actually went to the games they’d probably still have a team |
| 2:51 |
Quebec should also probably fix its “persecuting religious minorities” problem before it thinks about building a stadium. |
| 2:51 |
points for acknowledging infrastructure as a legitimate policy concern. |
| 2:51 |
The only way it would get done is if the city of Montreal stepped in and the province didn’t touch the project. Or if it was privately paid for. Location would be a mess too. Only real spot is where Olympic Stadium currently is. |
| 2:52 |
honestly not a bad outing for Hamels. Lefties usually get molested by this TOR team. 6 IP, 2 ER, 0 BB. I think Rangers’ fans will take it |
| 2:52 |
: He’s been all right. Can’t ask for a lot more
|
| 2:52 |
Another Canadian: Quebec City just built a beautiful new arena to attract an NHL team, which will come within two years, so perhaps Montreal could look at how well that goes to decide whether or not to build a stadium. |
| 2:52 |
: To pivot a little bit…Toronto isn’t even building a new stadium, but just renovating SkyDome to have grass, etc. (Actually, I’m assuming ROGERS is paying for renovations.)
|
| 2:53 |
should hamels really still be in this game? |
| 2:53 |
: he’s got Pillar/Goins/Revere next so it doesn’t really matter
|
| 2:54 |
Might be thinking ahead a bit, but doesn’t it make sense to go to Cecil for Choo through Hamilton in the order? Even if they pinch hit Napoli, he’s the only one that scares you. |
| 2:54 |
: maybe let Stroman get DeShields first
|
| 2:54 |
: Costas talking about the times-through-order penalty
|
| 2:55 |
: Kaat being annoying about it
|
| 2:56 |
pulling stroman now when he’s dealing and only at 89 pitches is a tough call. everything about stro’s career says he’s likely the kind of ace that doesn’t get pulled in this situation. |
| 2:56 |
: I don’t even know what that means
|
| 2:58 |
: I’m back/my browser is being less dumb
|
| 3:00 |
“He said he pitches with a chip on his shoulder. But what he really pitched with today…was heart.” ew |
| 3:00 |
: yes, ew
|
| 3:01 |
SkyDome’s actually not that bad of a stadium to be fair and can get by with a little love and renovations. Olympic Stadium is literally falling apart and has been since the Expos moved. |
| 3:01 |
: Well…anything is better than a stadium that is a huge cavern of glued together concrete. Not to say Olympic Stadium isn’t interesting; it’s a product of it’s time.
I like SkyDome. But it’s not like the in vogue retro parks that were built 1992 on. |
| 3:02 |
Someone said that? |
| 3:02 |
: Yes, Costas.
|
| 3:02 |
A lot of building projects, including Olympic Stadium, in Montreal (and Quebec) were given out (via corruption) to shady construction companies in the 70s and were built based as cheaply as possible. This has led to tons of problems that the province is dealing with now. |
| 3:04 |
: Like Temple, I also had browser problems and have now returned on a different one
|
| 3:05 |
: The fourth game today is going to be a chatting nightmare
|
| 3:05 |
: Also I remember a few years ago when I was hanging around Olympic Stadium it was open but there was signs everywhere to look out for falling rocks
|
| 3:05 |
: Full disclosure: I’m turning to the HOU game at 2:30 if this game goes over.
|
| 3:06 |
: 2:30 my time.
|
| 3:06 |
Think of Montreal as Olympic Stadium without the signs for falling rocks. Just the falling rocks |
| 3:06 |
: Which means we’ll have Craig Edwards in here before long
|
| 3:06 |
: Great, that effing guy
|
| 3:06 |
: Big pitch by Cecil, who has quietly been unbelievable
|
| 3:07 |
: I love pitchers that look like they may faceplant on any given pitch.
|
| 3:07 |
I live in Toronto and want to say one thing: Blue Jays “fans” are the most insufferable example of bandwagon fans I can ever remember. I say this only because I constantly hear about how great the crowds are here. As a Yankees fan living in Toronto, the crowds have been shit for the past two decades, and it’s hard to hear about how amazing they are. |
| 3:07 |
: Every single city bandwagons. Every single fan base bandwagons. It’s not something unique to any place. People everywhere will annoy you if you let them.
|
| 3:08 |
: Annnnnnnnnnnnd we’re tied
|
| 3:08 |
You just know the Rangers are going to bloop that run in |
| 3:08 |
: That sort of counts
|
| 3:09 |
Who watches first inning of any game when they can watch ninth inning of this game? |
| 3:09 |
: legit question
|
| 3:10 |
What a dumb, dumb, soooo dumb decision to keep Cecil in |
| 3:10 |
: Cecil allowed a .241 wOBA to lefties and a .245 wOBA to righties
|
| 3:11 |
: what the hell
|
| 3:11 |
: not sure what Napoli was doing
|
| 3:11 |
: Cecil lower-body injury. That’s not good news at all
|
| 3:12 |
Jeff, Napoli’s splits are also a factor. Napoli is not good against RHP |
| 3:12 |
: yes, but Cecil is outstanding against everyone. shit happens
|
| 3:13 |
Cecil had a 34.9% K-BB% against lefties and a 21.4 against righties. I don’t think the 70 points lower BABIP against righties was a skill. With an off-day tomorrow, should’ve gone to the pen’s infinite supply of good righties. |
| 3:13 |
: Not saying a perfect decision was made, but a defensible decision was made. Gibbons didn’t allow the single
|
| 3:14 |
: Now Sam Dyson really DOES look like an old prospector
|
| 3:15 |
Mike Napoli: .403 wOBA vs LHP ….271 vs RHP. |
| 3:15 |
: not representative of his true split
|
| 3:15 |
Lower body injury? This isn’t hockey Jeff |
| 3:15 |
: then why is there a goal horn?
|
| 3:16 |
: Love Sam Dyson
|
| 3:16 |
: If Cecil is injured for a few days, Napoli’s out was probably worth it for his team!
|
| 3:17 |
: SPEED DON’T SLUMP
|
| 3:17 |
Defensible? Sure. I think the worse move was letting Stroman pitch to Deshields. Fourth time through the order I’d rather have Cecil face him |
| 3:17 |
: Or one of the bullpen righties
|
| 3:17 |
: That’s what 80% of all hits against Sam Dyson look like
|
| 3:18 |
at what time is it okay for me to start drinking |
| 3:18 |
: any time if you’re not at work!
|
| 3:18 |
: Is Donaldson wearing Mardi Gras beads?
|
| 3:18 |
Try stealing Revere? |
| 3:18 |
: if the timing works out, for sure
|
| 3:19 |
: Mannnnn, that sinker
|
| 3:19 |
: 98, on the fists
|
| 3:20 |
That bat split in half length-wise. Crazy. |
| 3:20 |
: Like even the part where his hands were. Nuts.
|
| 3:20 |
: Steal! Huge steal.
|
| 3:20 |
: Can’t believe we’re watching a playoff game that Chris Gimenez started
|
| 3:21 |
Are you really more likely to hit a single than a home run? |
| 3:21 |
: yes?
|
| 3:21 |
Is Revere pretty much an older, better, Gose? |
| 3:21 |
: Gose strikes out all the time
|
| 3:22 |
: Dyson’s changeup is 90 miles per hour and it moves like his sinker
|
| 3:23 |
: I like that the outfield scoreboard is showing Bautista’s splits to Dyson whenever he looks back at the runner
|
| 3:24 |
How long do the Rangers use Dyson? Just one inning? |
| 3:24 |
: might give him Tulo and Colabello too if it comes to that
|
| 3:24 |
Why does it seem like EVERYONE has at least a pair of insanely dominant relief pitcher nowadays? |
| 3:24 |
: Because teams know to look for them now rather than letting them toil in the minors as crappy starters?
|
| 3:24 |
: THIS IS A GUESS
|
| 3:25 |
: Dyson throwing his intentional balls 83-84 miles per hour, making Mark Buehrle very sad
|
| 3:26 |
: I wonder if Dyson throws sinkers for his intentional balls
|
| 3:26 |
: Will look later
|
| 3:26 |
: What a great play by Odor
|
| 3:27 |
: What a typical Sam Dyson inning
|
| 3:27 |
Tulo has not been a good Blue Jay offensively |
| 3:27 |
: legitimate concern going forward. he’s on the decline
|
| 3:27 |
: So the other game is about to start which won’t make this super confusing at all
|
| 3:28 |
: Maybe there will be another rain delay?
|
| 3:28 |
: I’m on the clock, I don’t mind chatting Astros/Royals
|
| 3:28 |
: I feel bad for Swydan, staying up super late to chat with this window having like 11 hours of history in it
|
| 3:28 |
well, this game has the 50% chance of a walk-off, so I’m stiking here |
| 3:28 |
: Also a good point.
|
| 3:29 |
Or more realistically, just like Matt Holliday he’s initially struggling getting out of Coors. Dude’s also hurt. |
| 3:29 |
: Injuries probably aren’t going to go away and he was worse than usual even at Coors
|
| 3:30 |
Jeff, how long do you give Tulo next year before you definitively say decline and not just an off year? I believe you, just curious. |
| 3:30 |
: ASB. I still think he’s really good, just worse
|
| 3:30 |
You feel bad for Swydan? he gets to chat Kershaw vs. DeGrom?! |
| 3:30 |
: I’d rather watch Kershaw/deGrom without chatting!
|
| 3:31 |
tulo had a bad start to the year but really turned it on midseason prior to the trade. |
| 3:31 |
: you don’t just get to ignore bad starts though
|
| 3:31 |
That’s how much you appreciate us, Jeff? Bah! |
| 3:31 |
: chatting is fun but it’s also distracting me from the TV half the time. with Kershaw/deGrom, I want my eyes glued
|
| 3:32 |
What % of average fans had even heard of Sam Dyson before yesterday? 1-2%? |
| 3:32 |
: less
|
| 3:32 |
Why is Josh Hamilton getting ABs? |
| 3:32 |
: might get fewer in the next game
|
| 3:33 |
bad start came after major offseason surgery though. |
| 3:33 |
: Let’s simplify and put it this way: Tulowitzki is just about 31 years old. He is almost certainly declining
|
| 3:33 |
: Rookie inexperience just gave Roberto Osuna a nine-pitch 1-2-3
|
| 3:34 |
: Yes
|
| 3:34 |
: flash poll!
|
| 3:35 |
Re: Sam Dyson, every Blue Jay fan. “Best arm in the organization”. |
| 3:35 |
I voted with my heart |
| 3:35 |
Does Osuna come back out for the 10th after such a short outing? |
| 3:35 |
: Gimenez/Alberto/DeShields. might as well
|
| 3:35 |
: right now the voting is split just about 50/50!
|
| 3:36 |
I voted with my finger |
| 3:37 |
: Little surprised they didn’t leave Dyson in
|
| 3:38 |
HEY A ROYALS QUESTION: How worrisome is the Cueto slump: a) in short term, b) in longer term? |
| 3:38 |
: moderately worrisome in the short-term. there is no longer-term
|
| 3:38 |
: Craig Edwards has now arrived to make this chat confusing!
|
| 3:38 |
Is DiPoto’s first move to trade Trumbo? I mean… he DID already trade him away once. ;-p |
| 3:38 |
: firing McClendon
|
| 3:39 |
: There are now 5 FanGraph’ers in the chat.
|
| 3:39 |
How many non FanGraph’ers? |
| 3:39 |
: fewer than 300 actually. these weekday matinees…
|
| 3:41 |
: Diekman with the Phillies: 61% strikes
Diekman with the Rangers: 64% |
| 3:41 |
: but fewer whiffs and first-pitch strikes…
|
| 3:41 |
Prince Fielder looks like the Weeknd |
| 3:41 |
FanGraphites |
| 3:41 |
: Denizens of FanGraphs!
|
| 3:42 |
Does Diekman have deception to go with his 99? These guys are wayyyy behind. |
| 3:42 |
: hard to tell. he’s tall and might briefly hide the ball behind his head but the delivery doesn’t look exceptional
|
| 3:43 |
Did Diekman change much after coming from the Phillies? Or can a lot of his improvement be attributed to getting out of a losing atmosphere/poor clubhouse situation? |
| 3:43 |
: more fastballs, fewer breaking balls, similar to Dyson
|
| 3:43 |
: and we have extra innings
|
| 3:44 |
: I am here and ready to chat. Royals-Astros update: in a commercial break.
|
| 3:44 |
jesus since when does Diekman hit 100 |
| 3:44 |
: hello, playoff adrenaline!
|
| 3:44 |
Just curious, in a given at bat, whose platoon split is more predictive, hitter or pitcher? |
| 3:44 |
: if I recall it’s actually about 50/50 but let me check
|
| 3:47 |
: This is taking too long. assume it’s roughly 50/50
|
| 3:47 |
Anybody want to read my short story about FangRap HS, the high school for vampire emcees? |
| 3:47 |
Why were Lewis/Holland even warming up? |
| 3:47 |
: throw days?
|
| 3:48 |
Diekman actually hit 102 this year, according to Brooks Baseball, but they also use 55ft. for the pitcher release point. |
| 3:48 |
For the World Series, can EVERYONE at Fangraphs live blog? |
| 3:48 |
: good god
|
| 3:48 |
I really hope Beltre isn’t done for the year. I’m still a bit bummed the Red Sox let him go after 2010. |
| 3:48 |
: same, except for the Red Sox part. I think any franchise that has had him should feel lucky he was there, even briefly.
|
| 3:48 |
: Ever so casually, Osuna out here for a second inning…
|
| 3:49 |
Impressive play |
| 3:49 |
Cecil apparently in crutches |
| 3:49 |
: Very bad news
|
| 3:49 |
Any chance Osuna comes to pitch again? |
| 3:49 |
: not going to go to a third
|
| 3:50 |
: Yes
|
| 3:51 |
: Cueto with the “rocking chair” early on. Probably could have gotten called strike 3 on 0-2 to Springer. Ended up with a walk.
This is the game everyone is watching, right? |
| 3:52 |
Which 2 fangraphers would be most likely to get into an argument on a chat? |
| 3:52 |
: we’re all exceptionally nice
|
| 3:53 |
: according to Ken Rosenthal, Adrian Beltre is taking practice swings right now
|
| 3:53 |
: Playoff hero Colby Rasmus.
|
| 3:53 |
“left calf tightness” for Cecil |
| 3:54 |
If the Jays don’t win it in the 10th, I’m rather concerned about their bullpen holding against Choo/Fielder/etc. Loup is the only lefty remaining and he doesn’t inspire confidence… |
| 3:54 |
: and the Rangers still have Kela and Tolleson
|
| 3:54 |
I don’t care about results. Every pitcher should be required to throw as entertainingly as Johnny Cueto. |
| 3:54 |
: but what makes it entertaining is that it is unique.
|
| 3:55 |
Am I supposed to dislike Costas as a playoff announcer? Mercy, he’s miles better than what Fox trots out. |
| 3:55 |
: I think people dislike him for other reasons
|
| 3:55 |
: Diekman all over the edges in this at-bat
|
| 3:55 |
: I agree with Pierzynski. WIth 2 outs, even with Alex Gordon in left field, you should try to get the run in with Rasmus running.
|
| 3:56 |
: Revere just kept going after that inside pitch and he kept doing nothing with it
|
| 3:56 |
Other reasons? |
| 3:56 |
: perceived smugness. people will think what they think
|
| 3:56 |
Too much groupthink when it comes to announcers. If you like a guy, you like him. |
| 3:56 |
For the record, as a Rangers fan I do not like the idea of Diekman pitching to Donaldson. |
| 3:56 |
I have 0 faith in the Jays to win this now |
| 3:57 |
I’m watching the game, Craig! (I don’t have access to MLB Network. *sob*) |
| 3:57 |
: Glad to have you aboard. It’s okay to cry.
|
| 3:57 |
We need it to rain in KC again. Just until the Toronto game is over. Otherwise, this is gonna get REAL confusing |
| 3:57 |
: That was clutch yesterday, because I was still at work until 9PM EDT.
|
| 3:57 |
: Annnnnnnd we go to the 11th
|
| 3:58 |
Of course Fish wants it to rain |
| 3:58 |
Rangers |
| 3:59 |
I’m saltwater, though 🙁 |
| 4:00 |
: voting currently split 50/50…
|
| 4:00 |
the 2nd wildcard is really messing with America’s love of underdogs. Royals are old news already |
| 4:00 |
Start a different thread for astros/kc? |
| 4:00 |
: can’t really…do that, I’m afraid
|
| 4:00 |
: Rangers/Blue Jays
|
| 4:01 |
Is Rasmus hair sweaty, greasy, or wet? |
| 4:01 |
: yes
|
| 4:02 |
: Three-quarters of people say they’re watching Rangers/Jays
|
| 4:02 |
: Mark Lowe trying that inside sinker against Choo but Stroman’s was better
|
| 4:02 |
: That one worked
|
| 4:03 |
Do you think Rasmus’ dad wants him to cut/wash it? |
| 4:03 |
: Only if Tony LaRussa want him to leave it as is.
|
| 4:04 |
: Lowe with the backdoor slider, then the inside slider for a whiff
|
| 4:04 |
i never thought about the needing a passport when traded to the blue jays issue |
| 4:04 |
: Jim Kaat getting thrown off by Martin’s framing
|
| 4:05 |
: Venable running for Fielder; Fielder is finished
|
| 4:06 |
Do you think umpires are starting to resent catchers with the reputation of being “great framers”? |
| 4:06 |
: on the contrary, I think they like the catchers who give them the best views
|
| 4:06 |
: Adrian Beltre in the dugout holding a bat
|
| 4:08 |
Jeff, what does the strike zoone look like? Martin is not happy. |
| 4:08 |
: it’s been a little tight http://www.brooksbaseball.n…
|
| 4:08 |
Jeff – are you sure he’s holding a bat because he might hit, or is he just trying to protect himself in case the Rangers win and Andrus goes for a headrub? |
| 4:08 |
: Royals fans chanting get a hair cut, but between Rasmus and the fans, he is one of the only ones that can wear a jersey and hat to work.
|
| 4:09 |
: Consecutive walks for Lowe
|
| 4:09 |
: fittingly enough, now a visit from Walker
|
| 4:09 |
: Good joke!
|
| 4:10 |
Batflip on a full count Walk. I fully endorse this as a thing |
| 4:10 |
Mark Lowe. As a Rangers fan, the schadenfreude is SO real. |
| 4:10 |
: How has there not been fisticuffs between baserunner and second baseman by now?
|
| 4:11 |
: There probably has, I just don’t remember it.
|
| 4:11 |
Wasn’t there a famous one with Pete Rose many years ago? |
| 4:11 |
: Probably…
|
| 4:12 |
How could the umpire not call that an illegal slide? |
| 4:12 |
Also because Goins really doesn’t want to fight Napoli |
| 4:12 |
: Yeah, too many brawls involve the catcher. let’s see them germinate elsewhere
|
| 4:13 |
Here comes Loup for the typical weak grounder single or flare shot into the outfield. |
| 4:13 |
Shouldn’t the Rangers pinch hit here? No way you can let Hamilton up there against a lefty in this situatoin… |
| 4:13 |
: your options are Beltre or Stubbs
|
| 4:13 |
: Cueto has now given up two walks that started 0-2.
|
| 4:14 |
: Hamilton did well but not well enough. Inning’s over
|
| 4:14 |
: Wow, Moustakas’ hesitation was costly.
|
| 4:15 |
Bah. Jeff is like 1 minute ahead of my feed. |
| 4:15 |
: And I’m a minute behind everyone else!
|
| 4:15 |
: Cueto pointed to third, and Moustakos looking back there cost them an out. Bases loaded no outs for Altuve.
|
| 4:16 |
Astros have got something going. |
| 4:17 |
: I’ll be switching over to the KC-HOU game after the Jays get a walk-off HR.
|
| 4:18 |
Was the sarcastic applaud by the Kansas City crowd? |
| 4:18 |
: I don’t think so. Thought it was for getting an important out.
|
| 4:19 |
: Springer had a green light on 3-0. Can be a smart play.
|
| 4:19 |
If things keep going well, could the Astros be the only team to win both the NL pennant and the AL pennant? |
| 4:19 |
: Milwaukee could do it, too.
|
| 4:19 |
: Bloop single by Springer scores 2. 3-0 Houston in the 2nd.
|
| 4:19 |
: It was fisted, if you will.
|
| 4:19 |
: by the way, Napoli sliding into Goins:
|
| 4:20 |
:
|
| 4:20 |
: Encarnacion very much unhappy with this strike zone
|
| 4:21 |
: Cueto’s trademarked delivery hit Springer’s bat right in the trademark and Houston now has a 3-0 lead.
/Nailed it. |
| 4:22 |
: Very quiet in KC right now.
|
| 4:22 |
Is there someone who tracks pitchers “accuracy” by keeping track of how many times they miss their spot – catchers glove? How does that work and is that publically available? |
| 4:22 |
: It’s not that precise and resource intensive. I saw something (though I can’t find it now; it might have been at Saberseminar) where the researchers used video to do just this. It’s hard to measure because of different camera angles, framing, and the fuzziness of video.
|
| 4:22 |
: Inside Edge does it
|
| 4:23 |
: Don’t know how good it is
|
| 4:23 |
: Could be the newness of it, but A.J. Pierzynksi seems really good as an announcer. Would be happy to see him take somebody’s spot in the FOX WS booth.
|
| 4:23 |
Isn’t Paul supposed to be here too? |
| 4:23 |
: I think for the NYM/LAD game.
|
| 4:23 |
: Off to the 12th. won’t ever be able to leave my computer
|
| 4:25 |
I don’t trust my judgement on the strikezone but this seems kinda bad |
| 4:25 |
: Tolleson was painting the edges. That’s how you earn calls
|
| 4:25 |
: DP by Correa ends it in the 2nd. 3-0 HOU going into the bottom of 2nd.
|
| 4:26 |
: Extreme pull shift for Odor
|
| 4:27 |
: And he goes the other way! with a lazy fly out.
|
| 4:27 |
: Boy is this chat window ever non-responsive for me 🙁
|
| 4:27 |
Aren’t the Astros the team that strikes out all the time? How are they not striking out? |
| 4:27 |
: Yes, although the Cubs actually took the crown by a decent amount this season. Cueto has had trouble finishing hitters off so far.
|
| 4:27 |
: It’s been pretty dumb.
|
| 4:28 |
: (The chat window, that is)
|
| 4:28 |
: This software just does not hold up to volume
|
| 4:29 |
: Have you tried restarting it?
|
| 4:30 |
: Really great turn on the DP by Zobrist last inning. Will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets.
|
| 4:31 |
: Sal Perez with a solo shot makes it 3-1 HOU.
|
| 4:32 |
: Sanchez makes quick work of the Rangers. off to the bottom of the 12th! and I’m getting hungry and irritable
|
| 4:33 |
Who is most adversely affected personnel wise by this extra inning affair? |
| 4:33 |
: neither team should benefit. day off tomorrow. both bullpens are fairly deep
|
| 4:33 |
Are the Jays going for the professional record for longest game? They have awhile to go then. |
| 4:33 |
: I would kill myself
|
| 4:33 |
Sanchez highest legs/torso ratio in the MLB? |
| 4:33 |
The Royals scoring vit HRs. The Astros scoring by stringing hits together. Screw your team scouting reports! |
| 4:34 |
If the Jays fail, what are the chances of them winning the series? |
| 4:34 |
: around 20%
|
| 4:34 |
I didn’t know that entertaining baseball games made you irritable Jeff |
| 4:34 |
: the kitchen is downstairs and I am upstairs and I am committed to this live chat
|
| 4:34 |
Has anyone written a speculative post on what’s wrong with Cueto? He’s been hit-happy for what seems like months. |
| 4:34 |
| 4:35 |
: Base hit Colabello!
|
| 4:35 |
: 25% of the way to sandwich!
|
| 4:35 |
Pinch runner? |
| 4:35 |
: Dalton Pompey it is
|
| 4:36 |
Craig (or anyone) the win probability chart on the KC/HOU game thinks Houston only has 2 runs. http://www.fangraphs.com/li… |
| 4:36 |
: will notify Appelman
|
| 4:38 |
: Playoff hero Colby Rasmus
|
| 4:38 |
Conundrum: I devoted 12 hours today to watching baseball. So far, I am doing exactly that, but because of extra innings, I am still somehow missing baseball. |
| 4:39 |
Now I want some poutine. Thanks, Jays radio broadcast. |
| 4:39 |
: Now you got me wanting poutine!
|
| 4:39 |
: Colby Rasmus is a man on fire.
|
| 4:39 |
: Not literally, however.
|
| 4:39 |
A grease fire. |
| 4:39 |
: I picture Rasmus sprinting with his mane aflame
|
| 4:39 |
Does it seems fair that the 1b coach can have a stopwatch? I don’t like it, and seems weird they allow it |
| 4:39 |
: now that you mention it
|
| 4:40 |
: AJP quoting Major League 2.
|
| 4:41 |
: Poorly
|
| 4:41 |
What’s the anti-stopwatch argument? |
| 4:41 |
: device on the field of play
|
| 4:41 |
And? |
| 4:41 |
: that’s all
|
| 4:42 |
Rasmus 2016 |
| 4:42 |
: Close. His OPS in the playoffs is actually 2.250
|
| 4:42 |
: Another borderline strike call for the Rangers
|
| 4:42 |
Totally off topic, but what percentage of America knows that the Speaker of the House need not be an elected member of Congress (or a person who has been elected to any other office, for that matter)? |
| 4:42 |
: I knew that…but I guess most of the general public doesn’t. I can’t see the HR not electing one of their own.
|
| 4:42 |
: Pompey takes second with two outs…
|
| 4:43 |
: Pompey takes third!
|
| 4:43 |
Rasmus making a push for a postseason success FA bump. |
| 4:43 |
: Probably won’t have to settle for a one-year deal again this winter.
|
| 4:44 |
: Annnnnnnd Goins is out. I die slowly
|
| 4:45 |
: Jeff, there are like 90 FG people in here. You can get your sandwich if you want.
|
| 4:45 |
: I MADE A COMMITMENT
|
| 4:45 |
: What kind of sandwich?
|
| 4:45 |
: Folks, stop commenting with GIFs. We won’t post them, and they are annoying us in the comment stream.
|
| 4:46 |
With pennington on the bench how has gibbons not pinch hit for goins yet??? |
| 4:46 |
: seems like he really doesn’t want to use his second catcher
|
| 4:46 |
JEFF I HAVE AN IDEA. send a pizza emoji to dominos. ya. doesnt even involve callin’ |
| 4:46 |
: I support all emoji.
|
| 4:46 |
Is the postseason somewhat paradoxically the only part of the season Sal Perez gets semi-regular rest because of the schedule? |
| 4:46 |
: Probably!
|
| 4:47 |
Colby Rasmus reminds me of a much crappier Lenny Dykstra |
| 4:47 |
: Through 7 seasons-Dykstra-24 WAR, Rasmus-17. Not that far off.
|
| 4:47 |
But he needed Smoak for defense anyway |
| 4:47 |
: forgot about Smoak
|
| 4:47 |
: Naked eye-thought he was safe
|
| 4:48 |
: So Smoak is in the game now at first after Pompey pinch-ran for Colabello
|
| 4:49 |
: Instant replay says he was safe. Royals with 1st and 3rd, nobody out with Zobrist up.
|
| 4:49 |
: Strike zone in Toronto getting people pretty uppity
|
| 4:49 |
Odds Royals-Astros finishes before Blue Jays-Rangers? |
| 4:49 |
: annoying
|
| 4:50 |
so the announcers basically just said that their eye is better than the graphic that shows if it is a ball or a strike… |
| 4:51 |
In all fairness, there have been so many borderline pitches this game. |
| 4:51 |
: yeah, it’s just asking for controversy
|
| 4:51 |
Rasmus is encouraging a generation of young baseball players to forgo showering. Or getting their hair cut. |
| 4:51 |
: I hope there are a bunch of kids in Houston right now saying, “but Colby Rasmus does it”
|
| 4:51 |
Jeff, do you get overtime? |
| 4:51 |
: technically it’s not even 2pm my time
|
| 4:51 |
Dykstra 1993 world series, 4 HR. Rasmus, ?? |
| 4:52 |
: Sanchez really featuring the high-waisted pants
|
| 4:53 |
You have to wonder if Rasmus’ hair is like getting slapped by a wet towel when he’s running. |
| 4:53 |
sounds like the Royals crowd is trying to will them back into it |
| 4:53 |
: these fans are playoff veterans.
|
| 4:53 |
: DP scores the man from third. 4-2 HOU
|
| 4:53 |
: Man does Napoli ever have a terrifying swing
|
| 4:55 |
: And there’s Ryan Goins paying off
|
| 4:55 |
: Really good play behind the bag sends us to the bottom of the unluckiest inning!
|
| 4:55 |
PLEASE SCORE HERE I AM RUNNING OUT OF SWEAT |
| 4:56 |
I have started to boo great defensive plays. |
| 4:56 |
Rangers bringing in Keone Kela who they have a stated desire not to use on back to back days. This isn’t going to end well for Texas. |
| 4:57 |
Jeff, does Donaldson deserve mvp if he ends the game and sends you to the kitchen? |
| 4:57 |
: gets my vote
|
| 4:58 |
Do you think there is a psychological benefit to winning a long game like this, especially in a playoff series? |
| 4:58 |
: probably exaggerates the delight and disappointment on either side, but I don’t think it’s the sort of thing that materializes later in the series
|
| 4:59 |
: Ben Revere cannot help himself but go after inside fastballs
|
| 4:59 |
I still need to walk 5km today and work on my thesis. If Donaldson hits a home run and ends this I will literally walk to the polling place up the road and vote for him for Member of Parliament. |
| 4:59 |
: You haven’t done this already?
|
| 5:00 |
: Genuinely forgot that Cole Hamels pitched today
|
| 5:00 |
AJ Pierzynski is shockingly good as a broadcaster. |
| 5:00 |
: The broadcasters on his team probably love him, but rival broadcasters I’m not so sure about.
|
| 5:01 |
: KEEP THOSE FAIR DONALDSON GOD DAMMIT
|
| 5:01 |
: a bench-clearing conversation!
|
| 5:01 |
All I’m seeing is “onfield delay” |
| 5:01 |
Donaldson saying some pretty uplifting stuff |
| 5:02 |
You can’t let this pitcher-batter pairing continue now with Donaldson, right? How can you trust him not to beam him? |
| 5:02 |
: playoff game?
|
| 5:03 |
Seriously though, for us working stiffs. what is happening |
| 5:03 |
: Donaldson stood on home and observed his foul ball. The pitcher appeared to have taken offense.
|
| 5:03 |
MLB needs to do something about the pens emptying….this is getting stupid. Talk about pace of play and adding time to the game. Plus if they do fight it just adds to people getting hurt |
| 5:03 |
: I think MLB needs to police the players policing themselves. Especially with HBP.
|
| 5:03 |
Jays radio says Donaldson upset by quick-pitch |
| 5:03 |
: Perhaps that’s it?
|
| 5:04 |
: I bet Kela feels pretty good right now
|
| 5:06 |
God forbid someone try to speed up the game by “pitching quickly” |
| 5:06 |
It did appear Donaldson was griping before the exchange. How can he complain about a quick pitch that he missed homering by a few feet? |
| 5:06 |
So Jeff, David…. you guys doing the CHI/STL game too? |
| 5:06 |
: I’m outta here when this game is outta here
|
| 5:07 |
Umm gameday just showed ball one as middle-middle. For reals, or gameday error? |
| 5:07 |
: error
|
| 5:08 |
: JESUS GOD DAMN
|
| 5:08 |
: Encarnacion misses a home run by three feet
|
| 5:08 |
: Sooooooooooooo a 14th inning shall be allowed
|
| 5:09 |
: Royals-Astros seems to be settling down some. 8 pitches for Cueto last inning. 1-2-3 for Kazmir. Astros up 4-2 through 4.
|
| 5:09 |
The 0-1 was indeed a bit of a quick pitch. He didn’t come set (doesn’t have to with noone on) and he sped up his delivery. Not sure if that is what Donaldson was upset with – he said something to Kela before Kela yelled something back and started walking toward him. |
| 5:09 |
#LetJeffEat |
| 5:10 |
Funny to hear Kaat and Costas essentially blame Kela’s age and upbringing for that little exchange; and excuse Donaldson as “higher in the pecking order” |
| 5:10 |
go get a sandwich man! |
| 5:10 |
: I ran down to get a couple cheese sticks
|
| 5:11 |
The warning track is the Rangers best friend in this series. Tulo and EE have hit numerous warning track shots. |
| 5:11 |
Does the advantage the home team has in extra innings meaningfully diminish as the game goes later and later? Pitchers get lousier and benches are exhausted meaning the tactical advantage the home team has in manufacturing a single run becomes mitigated right? Has anyone studied this? |
| 5:11 |
: Can’t think of a study that’s been done
|
| 5:12 |
: Rasmus will bat this inning. He’s a triple and single short of the cycle.
|
| 5:12 |
That upbringing stuff is nonsense, but there is something a little pathetic about talking trash to the MVP when you’re a 22-year-old RP. |
| 5:12 |
: not if he starts it
|
| 5:13 |
I am 30 years old. LaTroy Hawkins was drafted when I was in kindergarten. |
| 5:13 |
: Dan Wilson reference
|
| 5:14 |
eek http://www.baseball-referen… re: the extra innings advantage: less than it is for a full game |
| 5:15 |
: Trainer out for Correa. Fouled it off his back thigh.
|
| 5:15 |
: Not a great pitch to Hamilton but he flicked it instead of swinging through it
|
| 5:15 |
: Rosenthal basically confirming that it was a quick-pitch attempt by Kela. Which is fine, of course
|
| 5:16 |
Depends on severity of “starting it,” I guess. But I mostly disagree with you. |
| 5:16 |
: if someone is yelling mean things at you, you are allowed to yell at him back
|
| 5:16 |
: Odors hits it against the shift on the ground!
|
| 5:17 |
: Correa steps back in the box, but Cueto gets a swing and a miss for a K. Cueto’s 5th on the day.
|
| 5:17 |
So I was driving back from work. Was Donaldson overreacting? |
| 5:17 |
: probably but he’s an emotional dude. they’re all just tired and annoyed
|
| 5:17 |
Sure, Jeff can’t have his sandwich yet, but think of the poor people at the game who haven’t been able to get a beer for 2+ hours |
| 5:18 |
: Sounds like you are projecting, Jeff.
|
| 5:19 |
: Lots of ballplayer swear words getting picked up by the mics in this one
|
| 5:20 |
: Rasmus walks. He’s now 4 for 8 with 3 homers, a double, and 3 walks.
|
| 5:20 |
: Another shot the other way by the Rangers. Bautista with a good idea to throw behind Odor rounding second, but he just missed
|
| 5:21 |
: Odor might be out…
|
| 5:22 |
: hey guys so is this game going to end before my chat starts? because i’m not sure i’m willing to turn it off
|
| 5:22 |
Cueto is scared of rasmus. 9 baserunners for the ‘stro already |
| 5:22 |
: have to wonder if the Astros won’t regret cashing in a few more runs. Royals still close.
|
| 5:22 |
Hes gonna be out |
| 5:22 |
That’s an out, homie |
| 5:22 |
Odor’s out. |
| 5:23 |
: I see 6 FanGraph’ers logged in now.
|
| 5:23 |
Just what replay was intended to do (I hate these type of reviews) |
| 5:23 |
: getting calls right?
|
| 5:23 |
Exactly the sort of play that never would’ve been an out before replay and is kinda dumb that it’s an out now. |
| 5:23 |
: he’s safe!
|
| 5:24 |
: Rangers take the lead!
|
| 5:25 |
Nothing more exciting than watching the umpires gather for 5 minutes and have a chat during the 14th inning! |
| 5:25 |
: seems kind of worth it
|
| 5:25 |
I guess Odor is a hero |
| 5:26 |
So, that replay is gonna be a hot discussion topic for the next few days, eh? |
| 5:26 |
: you think?
|
| 5:26 |
That was a very 2015 sequence. Replay upholds a call and a runner avoids the catcher on a throw home. I dig it. |
| 5:27 |
Can’t lie – I had no idea Hanser Alberto existed until today. |
| 5:28 |
What’s your take on it? I’m inclined to agree that it wasn’t quite conclusive that he was out. |
| 5:28 |
: I thought he was out, but it was too close to overturn.
|
| 5:28 |
Odor had a fairly close plays at 1st, 2nd, and home in that trip around the bases. Love how relevant small distances can be in this game that also includes 450-foot HRs and 100mph pitches. |
| 5:29 |
: Another run!
|
| 5:29 |
wtf that looked routine |
| 5:30 |
LUDICROUS SPEED |
| 5:30 |
Hanser. He’s so hot right now. |
| 5:30 |
Jesus. Are the Texas Rangers really going to make the ALCS? They are very mediocre |
| 5:30 |
: A 98-win team didn’t make the NLDS.
|
| 5:32 |
: the big play:
|
| 5:32 |
: Kazmir making a lot of pitches and Josh Fields is warming. Starting the third time through the order with Escobar.
|
| 5:32 |
:
|
| 5:34 |
Jeff Passan: |
| 5:34 |
Average top speed, home to 1B: Delino DeShields, 19.98 mph Paulo Orlando, 19.34 Rajai Davis, 19.28 Jake Marisnick, 19.22 Kiermaier, 19.19 |
| 5:34 |
I hate when replay is used to call a guy out because he lifted his foot a millimeter into the air while standing right on the base, or when a fielder pushes a guy’s foot off, or a fielder’s foot blocks the path to the base on a steal. Dumb dumb dumb. |
| 5:34 |
That is a MASSIVE gap |
| 5:34 |
What do you guys think about the idea of keeping the wild card but just making it about the best five records in the league, I.E. Pirates, Cubs, Cardinals all clinch spots with Dodgers and whoever the other team was as wildcards |
| 5:34 |
: If I were to make a change, I would guarantee the top two division leaders a spot in the LDS. Then, between the the 3rd division leader and the two Wild Cards, best record goes to LDS, other 2 go to play-in game.
|
| 5:35 |
: The call at second seems like one of those calls where if it had been called the other way on the field, replay would’ve resulted in the call also standing
|
| 5:36 |
: My sense is that was a bad strike call
|
| 5:36 |
: Boy howdy
|
| 5:37 |
: Awful call
|
| 5:37 |
Sean Dolinar has some dangerous ideas |
| 5:37 |
: Wait until you hear my 2-base HBP idea.
|
| 5:37 |
: Sarcastic cheer for the ball call to Smoak. love it
|
| 5:38 |
I would like: 2 divisions per league, 4 wild cards per league. 3 game wild card series – the two division winners get a bye into the division series. all else the same. It adds one more team to the post-season per league, and extends the post-season by 2 games. |
| 5:38 |
: I like the 2 division idea. Might work better if there were 2 more teams in MLB. Not sure about adding a sixth spot in the playoffs though. Could dilute things.
|
| 5:38 |
Two questions 1) Is MLBN missing an opportunity not broadcasting Ohlendorrf in black and white? 2) His back foot is coming off the rubber a couple of times – isn’t that technically a non-pitch? |
| 5:38 |
: every pitcher does that
|
| 5:38 |
Think a home team will win this postseason? |
| 5:39 |
: Jays down to the verge of being on the verge
|
| 5:40 |
Ohlendorf/Gimenez battery, playoffs are cool! |
| 5:40 |
: If Luis Valbuena and Dexter Fowler keep getting hits, we’ll never be able to figure out who won the trade.
|
| 5:40 |
: And we have a baserunner
|
| 5:41 |
: Martin clearly stuck his elbow out
|
| 5:41 |
: That should just be a ball
|
| 5:41 |
Okay, so DiPoto has already fired Lloyd. Is his NEXT move to move Trumbo? =p |
| 5:41 |
: Could happen sometime this winter.
|
| 5:42 |
Reminder that Ross Ohlendorf performed below replacement level in 2015. |
| 5:42 |
how egregious does putting yourself in the pitch’s way have to get before the ump won’t give the batter the HBP? |
| 5:42 |
: apparently extremely egregious
|
| 5:43 |
: And it’s over!
|
| 5:43 |
: Unbelievable. Well, not unbelievable, but very surprising
|
| 5:43 |
: Ross god damned Ohlendorf
|
| 5:43 |
RE: 2 Divisions: So much for rivalries, i guess? |
| 5:43 |
: You’d still get them. Rivalries end up being whoever you play the most with playoff implications.
|
| 5:43 |
“The Rangers played baseball ” – Jim Kaat sums it up well? |
| 5:44 |
Has anyone ever seen a HBP called a ball? |
| 5:44 |
: yes! once or twice
|
| 5:44 |
: I’m outta here you guys. Thanks for hanging around. Enjoy the rest of the afternoon and evening of baseball
|
| 5:45 |
: Jeff Sullivan sandwich watch is at a merciful end while the Astros lead the Royals 4-2 heading to the bottom of the sixth.
|
| 5:45 |
That actually made me feel better about Tabata, knowing what’s apparently allowed |
| 5:45 |
: That still was terrible. Tabata got DFA like a week later.
|
| 5:45 |
Thanks Jeff! |
| 5:45 |
: I still really want to know what type of sandwich Sullivan’s getting.
|
| 5:45 |
: delicious sandwich
|
| 5:46 |
Announcers (Pierzynski?) Just said that the Royals are going to try to win this game. |
| 5:46 |
: Sage advice.
|
| 5:48 |
So on a scale from one to Mariners, how depressing would it be for Blue Jays fans to go to the playoffs for the first time in 22 years and have them not win a single game at home? Get swept? |
| 5:48 |
: It’s pretty bad, but they are also bringing back a pretty good team next year.
|
| 5:49 |
: Also, Blue Jays season not done yet.
|
| 5:51 |
: Astros pressing their luck here with Kazmir, who just gave up a double to Cain.
|
| 5:52 |
On my 2 division plan – if concern is that 6 playoff teams is too diluted, would not mind stopping at 4. Either top two teams from each division advance, or the winners plus two best records. But I suspect the revenue generated by: 1. Wild card games, and (more importantly) 2. more teams being in the playoff hunt will outweigh dilution concerns. |
| 5:52 |
: I think baseball has hit a happy medium between too many teams making the playoffs and too few. This is evident in how the trade deadline changed, because there are so many buyers now.
|
| 5:53 |
: And Kazmir is out. Tying run on base. Oliver Perez-yes that Oliver Perez is coming in to face Hosmer.
|
| 5:54 |
Brett Cecil with a “significant tear in his calf” |
| 5:56 |
hey craig, enjoyed your article – have a take on the cubs v. cardinals lineups? |
| 5:56 |
: Thanks-Cubs lineup today is probably the one we expected against the Pirates-minus Ross. Cardinals are probably putting up their best lineup of the season. Question for them is health, especially Molina and then Grichuk making throws from right-they are worried about his ability to make throws from CF, but RF is no picnic.
|
| 5:57 |
Perez to face Hosmer who is 0-6 this post-season. |
| 5:57 |
: 1-7!. Hosmer equals Springer’s jam shot, scoring Cain. Now a one-run game. Cain was moving with the pitch. Risky, but paid off.
|
| 5:58 |
Much better games today so far! |
| 5:58 |
: a lot closer for sure.
|
| 5:58 |
The problem with 2 divisions is that MLB is looking for ways to increase the number of games that teams play that start at 7 PM in their home TV market, not decrease them. I don’t see them reducing divisions unless they completely realign the leagues by geography. |
| 5:58 |
: While bad for TV revenue…I love 10PM West Coast games.
|
| 5:59 |
Honestly, if you told me in 2010 that LaTroy Hawkins and Bartolo Colon were pitching in the playoffs, I might have believed you. But Oliver Perez? Never in my wildest nightmares. |
| 6:01 |
: Bases loaded for Salvador Perez, who already has a homer. Fields is coming in. Just one out.
|
| 6:02 |
Did Oliver Perez remember to pick up the empty gas can when he was pulled? |
| 6:02 |
: Kazmir, and arguably Hinch started it, but Perez got a bit of bad luck against Hosmer, and then wasn’t really close against Moustakas.
|
| 6:03 |
Royals WPA is positive for the first time all series. |
| 6:03 |
(exluding top half of both first innings before runs scored) |
| 6:04 |
jeff’s sandwich – dressed in blue jays’ tears… |
| 6:04 |
: that would taste awful and risk bird flu.
|
| 6:05 |
: Has to be tough for a reliever to come on with the bases loaded in this environment. FIelds didn’t come anywhere close to the strike zone. Overthrowing perhaps?
|
| 6:05 |
Is he really about to walk Salvador Perez? |
| 6:06 |
That’s awful. Walking Salvador Perez is pretty inexcusable |
| 6:06 |
: The K is LOUD.
|
| 6:07 |
So if you are a hitter – are you hacking at a first pitch fastball after that? Or do you have to take one strike? |
| 6:07 |
: Depends on how comfortable the hitter is. If he is the type to swing on 3-0, then swing.
|
| 6:08 |
wow Salvador perez had 13 walks…. all season |
| 6:08 |
: Perez had 7 4-0 walks all season-four were intentional.
|
| 6:11 |
: Fields came in with the bases loaded and one out and gave up just one run. It was a little ugly, but that is a decent outcome for the Astros given the situation.
|
| 6:12 |
He blew that one right by him. |
| 6:12 |
seeing this astros team more closely now (after following the cubs all season) i can’t help but feel they’re similar somehow, e.g., succeeding despite high team strikeout totals. is this just a function of both squads leveraging their youth? what might a math-type thingy looking at those strikeouts in the context of clutchness have to tell us? |
| 6:12 |
: They both stripped down their teams and got a bunch of young bats, and then brought them up at the same time. (or around the same time.) Striking out is OK when you hit for power. The Astros did that. The Cubs not quite as much.
|
| 6:12 |
okay, so how are all y’all on food? |
| 6:12 |
: I’m getting hungry.
|
| 6:13 |
The astros are thanking their lucky stars. that could have been a disaster. |
| 6:13 |
: And Royals should be kicking themselves. Wasted a big opportunity.
|
| 6:14 |
Chinese Sweet Pork jerky is the best. |
| 6:15 |
better get a plan together – learn from jeff |
| 6:15 |
: We can all learn things from Jeff. He’s the best.
|
| 6:16 |
: Pierzynski giving away the secret of loose pants. At least I think that is what he was doing.
|
| 6:17 |
He had a hotdog |
| 6:17 |
: Did he? That’s a let down.
|
| 6:17 |
A hot dog is not a sandwich |
| 6:17 |
: I’d kill for a Chicago dog now.
|
| 6:18 |
Has anyone mentioned Altuve is shorter than the average ballplayer yet today? That’s an important observation that should be made. |
| 6:18 |
: but his heart makes up for it.
|
| 6:18 |
: Herrera with the 360 spin on that K.
|
| 6:21 |
hot doug’s behind wrigley rightfield ftw |
| 6:21 |
: Did he open a place there? Last I remember he closed the California Ave shop last Oct.
|
| 6:24 |
Weird swing by Correa |
| 6:24 |
: thigh could still be hurting from earlier in the game. Foul hit him pretty hard.
|
| 6:24 |
anyone watching internationally? |
| 6:26 |
There is only one ump (per baseball Savant) , who calls more pitches out of the zone than Angel Hernandez. Rather than just having crews – do you think MLB should consider specialized umps during the playoffs (specific umps for HP, 1st base, etc….) |
| 6:26 |
: could be difficult as having one ump call multiple games in a row is likely more strenuous, and umps likely don’t want to give up HP assignments.
|
| 6:27 |
: I’m surprised how close those two got to the ball.
|
| 6:27 |
: here i am to chat about the cubs-cardinals game, people of the fangraphs chat!
|
| 6:27 |
: hello!
|
| 6:27 |
Obligatory Conan “Fagerstrom, I know youre in there!” |
| 6:27 |
: just get that out of the way early
|
| 6:28 |
: Ooo, I have to change over to that game.
|
| 6:28 |
Oh, good, time for a REAL playoff baseball (NL) game. ;-D |
| 6:28 |
Watching from Australia |
| 6:28 |
August: You have 5 seconds to name the sweetest swing we’ll see tonight in the Cubs-Cards game. GO! |
| 6:28 |
: a great jump-throw in the hole at SS by addison russell
|
| 6:28 |
Alright, I’m back. Did the Blue Jays game end yet? |
| 6:28 |
: should we tell em?
|
| 6:29 |
I think every game today should go to extras tied at 4. |
| 6:29 |
: My apologies.
|
| 6:30 |
How can his heart be that big when his body’s so small. |
| 6:30 |
: science
|
| 6:31 |
Why do we assume rookies panic and veterans don’t? |
| 6:31 |
: Same reason why ‘playoff experience’ matters. Though intuitively someone who has been through an experience before should be able to handle it better. (Stats just can’t prove that…yet.) But all people are different.
|
| 6:32 |
btw i think cubs win game 1 tonight, too hot at the moment |
| 6:32 |
: cubs, so hot right now. cubs
|
| 6:35 |
I think that depends on the guy mostly, I would rather have Correa than Russell on the field, guy just seems mentally tougher, readier for postseason maybe? |
| 6:35 |
: I think you would rather have Correa simply because he is the better player. I’m not sure I can judge toughness or being more ready, etc.
|
| 6:36 |
I think the Cards will win tonight because my hands are cold. |
| 6:36 |
Like after the 7-9 Seahawks made the postseason in 2010, I feel like a lot of this restructuring talk is shortsighted. It values the Cubs’/Pirates’ perspectives and wants to help them out. But wouldn’t the Cardinals, you know, the team with the best record, prefer to face a team that’s down an ace than a full-strength club? Or if the Dodgers and Mets faced off in a one game playoff and advanced to the NLDS down an ace and facing the Cardinals (which, if we’re pretending record is the basis for seeding, would have made for a much different end to the season, with the Dodgers and Mets resting less, and Pirates/Cubs potentially more[or not, and there’s your parity argument!]), would anyone think that too big of an advantage for the Cardinals? I don’t know, am I silly to think people are too focused on molding rules to meet this one season, instead of looking at this season as an outlier? Dare I say, sample size? |
| 6:36 |
: I don’t think a league had the three best teams records wise in the same division since 1975. MLB wanted to make winning the division important. They did that, and clearly winning the division has it’s advantages: the Pirates are at home and the Cubs have to wait to use Arrieta. If MLB wanted to seed the top 3 teams regardless of divisions they would have designed the postseason differently. Plus everything in the postseason is subject to so much randomness, so bickering about what’s fair really doesn’t make much difference.
|
| 6:38 |
: Royals will need two more innings from the bullpen. Who do they go with? Day off tomorrow.
|
| 6:38 |
re: “playoff experience” -supposedly a lotta the young rangers came up showcasing, i.e., used to bigtime crowds/environments |
| 6:38 |
: showcasing at lower levels?
|
| 6:38 |
I would go Davis for 2 innings, but I don’t think Yost does that |
| 6:40 |
I was thinking fielding specifically, where I would normally like Russell more, but I don’t know, Correa looks so confident out there |
| 6:40 |
: does Russell not getting that hot shot on Wednesday factor into it? Would you feel the same way without it? Judging somewhat based on that play might be unfair, I’m not sure. I just don’t have any reason to pick one over the other.
|
| 6:42 |
Three man booths remind me of the announcer introduction in the Naked Gun where they had like 12 |
| 6:42 |
How far away are we from a 4 man booth? |
| 6:42 |
: i just want more jessica mendoza-chris archer talk
|
| 6:42 |
: that was splendid.
|
| 6:43 |
Was that Yankees Red Sox and Orioles who had the 3 best records, right? |
| 6:43 |
: I was off a little bit…1978 http://www.foxsports.com/ml…
|
| 6:44 |
I’d like to see a booth where there’s two announcers calling it down the middle and one ‘Heel’ announcer like in professional wrestling. I have obscure and unpopular taste. |
| 6:44 |
: get hawk in there for the next white sox world series
|
| 6:46 |
So if the cubs make it to the WS, they ONLY start lester at AL parks right? |
| 6:46 |
: i mean, even with lester being the very worst pitcher hitter, he’s still not *that* much worse than most pitchers, because the bar is so low.
|
| 6:47 |
Hawk and Vin |
| 6:47 |
Hawk and Schilling |
| 6:47 |
I’d go Davis for two, but I assume Yost will go Madson/Davis? |
| 6:47 |
: You are correct and Ryan Madson, yes, that one, an incredible story, just shut them down.
|
| 6:47 |
I just realised I’m watching this game through British TV, but thank God commentary is American |
| 6:48 |
: dexter fowler didn’t get a hit
|
| 6:48 |
: that’s weird
|
| 6:48 |
Craig – Not thinking about that honestly, I was just thinking if I were forced to choose I would go with Correa, based mostly on nothing, but I get what you’re saying |
| 6:48 |
: No problem. I was just curious. It is difficult not to pick Correa for just about anything. He is fantastic.
|
| 6:48 |
Whats’ Wrong With Dexter Fowler coming up on the frontpage of fangraphs soon |
| 6:48 |
: i’m on it!
|
| 6:48 |
I saw that setup you described for an English soccer game. Two homers and a play by play guy. It was the most entertaining thing ever. They just made fun of the other teams players and their franchises. Baseball needs it |
| 6:49 |
Well, I suppose you didn’t need to ask 6 outs from Davis after all |
| 6:50 |
Would John Lackey be considered an ace? |
| 6:50 |
: what’s an ace?
|
| 6:51 |
Big fan of the August / Edwards chatmod tandem for what it’s worth. These chats improve my MLB experience |
| 6:51 |
: HEYYO
|
| 6:51 |
Why don’t refer to 2-5 pitchers as king, queen, jack, 10 |
| 6:51 |
: the mets have a really strong hand.
|
| 6:51 |
: Astros-Royals
|
| 6:53 |
Nobody wants to be known as the Queen of the staff I’m guessing. |
| 6:53 |
Because calling Mike Pelfrey a ’10’ seems misleading. |
| 6:53 |
: well that didn’t last long
|
| 6:53 |
Watching the end of each game p much |
| 6:54 |
: ooh! just noticed heyward is in center field. hadn’t looked at lineups yet. that’s a treat
|
| 6:55 |
TBS showing two borderline strike calls, fangraphs thinks there were easy strikes. Who do I trust? |
| 6:55 |
: you went to some coke den or something? i still haven’t quite pieced together that commercial, i just keep hearing it in the background
|
| 6:55 |
hey august, you wanna know how i got this gold ps4? its a p crazy story |
| 6:55 |
: that’s the coke den submission. we’re off the rails already. christ
|
| 6:55 |
Wow, that escalated quickly… |
| 6:56 |
: i’m gonna be fired here so fast
|
| 6:56 |
think the red sox could get jurgen klopp? |
| 6:56 |
: if they offered him enough. Not sure that would make sense for John Henry though.
|
| 6:57 |
Dunno about Heyward in center, I think they should have played him there more in September if the plan was to play him there come playoff time |
| 6:57 |
: wow, i guess i hadn’t realized he’s only play 230 career innings there. thought he’d gotten a lot more. something tells me he’ll be fine
|
| 6:57 |
Would it be against MLBAM rules to record a live podcast providing alternative commentary? Be cool to get some RiffTrax going. |
| 6:57 |
: Possibly. I think it would fall underneath ‘accounts and descriptions of the game’ Basically, if it takes away from revenue channels (which radio and TV audio provides), MLBAM probably doesn’t like it.
|
| 6:57 |
Btw what would you think is a realistic ceiling for Russell with the bat? And yes, Correa is awesome, I’m choosing good times to stay awake and watch baseball |
| 6:57 |
: might look a lot like Jhonny Peralta last season.
|
| 6:58 |
: first “oops kyle schwarber is in the outfield” moment of the 2015 cubs postseason!
|
| 6:58 |
Yeah, he definitely has the talent to play there, just thought he might be a bit uncomfortable calling flyballs or moving to his left |
| 6:58 |
: could be. an interesting minor storyline to look out for
|
| 6:58 |
Bourjos got left off the playoff roster this round 🙁 |
| 6:59 |
: matt holliday will never decline
|
| 6:59 |
Royals/Rangers would be lame |
| 6:59 |
: Royals are an exciting team to watch and Adrian Beltre deserves a title. Really hope he can get back in it.
|
| 7:00 |
Could you construct a competitive major league roster out of just guys with awesome facial hair? |
| 7:00 |
: might be harder to make a major league roster out of guys who don’t
|
| 7:01 |
Huge hit by Gordon, if the Royals score I think it’s over |
| 7:01 |
: struggles from Neshek continue. Could be a big story going forward, though Keuchel could solve a lot of that.
|
| 7:01 |
He’ll still get a ring |
| 7:01 |
: true, but it would still be good to see him play. One of the all-time greats.
|
| 7:03 |
: definitely more commercials should have ODB instrumentals in the background
|
| 7:04 |
True or false: Blue Jays only team from AL that could be favored in the WS? |
| 7:04 |
: Probably true, although they would probably be pretty close as long as it is not the Dodgers.
|
| 7:04 |
: Astros-Royals stays at one run. Wade Davis enters.
|
| 7:05 |
Beltre’s season was crazy |
| 7:05 |
Only to toronto and Houston fans. It would be an interesting series. |
| 7:05 |
Kansas City would be favored over the Mets |
| 7:05 |
: did that statcast graphic just say that piscotty had a negative seconds first step time?
|
| 7:06 |
no |
| 7:06 |
: just looked again, it definitely did. though i guess that could make sense if he was already in motion at time of contact?
|
| 7:07 |
What was the last bad cardinals fa acquisition? |
| 7:07 |
: They have had trouble with bench guys like Ty WIgginton, Mark Ellis. The one that always comes to mind is Tino Martinez, but that is ancient history at this point.
|
| 7:07 |
Whoa what is this fanduel thing? I’ve never seen a commercial before… |
| 7:07 |
You are doing pretty well if your bad signings are bench guys |
| 7:09 |
: no players like any umpires
|
| 7:09 |
: Astros-Royals is the sixth game of the playoffs and we have yet to see a home team win. Wade Davis is on the case. Strikes out Lowrie for out 1.
|
| 7:09 |
Who is the leader for 9 pitch innings? I bet Davis ranks pretty high |
| 7:09 |
: you could give up six runs in a nine-pitch inning
|
| 7:10 |
According to the internet, the Cardinals last bad FA signing was LaMarr Woodley, Outside linebacker from the Raiders. |
| 7:10 |
: never even got in an MLB game.
|
| 7:10 |
I love watching Davis getting to business |
| 7:11 |
Why do they keep playing the Vanilla Ice song? |
| 7:11 |
: David Bowie is an institution.
|
| 7:11 |
Fun exercise: Construct an entire lineup of former Athletics who are playing on postseason teams this year. |
| 7:12 |
yeah, I meant 9 pitch-3 ks innings, sorry about that |
| 7:12 |
: this actually happens less often than you maybe think. i wrote an article about justin masterson doing it last year (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…). it’s called an immaculate inning
|
| 7:12 |
: Instant replay could be Gomez out on a pickoff right after getting into the game as a pinch runner.
|
| 7:12 |
Out (on the pickoff play)? |
| 7:12 |
: i think so. We’ll see.
|
| 7:12 |
is it weird that Davis |
| 7:12 |
: * head explodes *
|
| 7:13 |
Ya busted. Gomez out at first on a pickoff |
| 7:13 |
: Indeed.
|
| 7:14 |
Josh Donaldson – 3B, Chris Carter – DH |
| 7:14 |
Ben Zobrist – 2B, Josh Donaldson – 3B, Chris Cater – 1B / DH (Damn, oakland… c’mon…) |
| 7:14 |
: i’ve decided to imbibe some alcoholic beverages this evening. who of you am i joining in this pursuit?
|
| 7:15 |
: Series tied. Big comeback win for the Royals.
|
| 7:15 |
August – Excellent article about Masterson’s inning, loved the reading. Also thanks for the info about the immaculate inning, didn’t know that thing had a name |
| 7:15 |
: hey, thanks! yeah, it was a pretty neat little occurrence, especially given what he did in the next couple innings
|
| 7:15 |
I already had a couple of beers, but I might be cheating it’s 1 am here |
| 7:15 |
Frosty beverage city – population: You, bro |
| 7:15 |
im only 20 can i join |
| 7:15 |
: this chat doesn’t check IDs at the door
|
| 7:16 |
: New Royals lose 🙁
|
| 7:16 |
Legal age to drink in this chat is ‘tall enough to put money on the counter’ |
| 7:17 |
: That is it for me on the chat. It was most enjoyable. I am now off to freak out watching the Cubs-Cardinals outside of this chat room. Treat August well.
|
| 7:17 |
: bye craig!
|
| 7:17 |
: sorry everyone. you only have me now.
|
| 7:17 |
*Turns towards August, creepily winks. |
| 7:18 |
Addison Russell can be the ex-A’s Shortstop. We’ve got an entire infield |
| 7:20 |
Matt Holliday, former A |
| 7:20 |
Cespedes in lf another ex A |
| 7:20 |
: this team is incredible
|
| 7:21 |
Isnt brandon moss on the cards too? |
| 7:21 |
I guess Bartolo Colon would be the starting pitcher |
| 7:21 |
Bartolo, Lester, Hammel, Brett Anderson … you could have an entire rotation |
| 7:21 |
: well there it is. well done.
|
| 7:22 |
: gregerson definitely in the bullpen. i’m sure the rest of the pen could be done easily.
|
| 7:22 |
we are a catcher short, aren’t we? |
| 7:22 |
: donaldson emergency catcher!
|
| 7:22 |
: yep. heyward looks fine in center
|
| 7:23 |
: he’s just incredible
|
| 7:23 |
Think anyone signs Heyward as a cf? |
| 7:23 |
: if he was on board, i’m sure they could.
|
| 7:24 |
: peralta has very quick hands on the exchange.
|
| 7:24 |
Ex-A’s catcher will be Stephen Vogt once Billy trades him to the Angels for two minor league arms and bus fare |
| 7:28 |
Why do the Red Sox and Athletics always seem to swap players? Crisp, Cespedes, Lester, and I’m sure there are others |
| 7:28 |
: i’d imagine there’s some strong pre-existing relationships between high-ranking front office execs
|
| 7:28 |
Why even show the K-zone on the Cubs-Cards broadcast? It’s so clearly not the zone that is being (or would ever be) called, so it makes every other pitch look way outside. |
| 7:28 |
: so broadcasters can talk about pitch framing
|
| 7:28 |
I also think that both sides like similar things. Thats why Cards trade with the Bosox and Cleveland. |
| 7:30 |
: that ball looked crushed off the bat. and surprisingly nice play by schwarber
|
| 7:31 |
Does anybody else think umpires sometimes don’t call borderline pitches on Carpenter because he seems to always know when to swing at the pitch? |
| 7:31 |
: this could a subconscious thing that affects guys with elite plate discipline. would imagine the effect, if any, would be very minor, though.
|
| 7:31 |
: hope i did affect/effect correctly there. it’s just a guessing game, really.
|
| 7:31 |
I see it with Votto. The zone gets tighter |
| 7:31 |
: he was the first guy that came to mind.
|
| 7:32 |
Nah check viva el birdos this year the umps have actually called balls for strikes a bit more than usual. |
| 7:32 |
Yeah, I see that with Votto Carpenter Mauer |
| 7:32 |
: you two: fight!
|
| 7:32 |
But it was more true last year that they trust his judgements its true he’s very selective. |
| 7:32 |
affect is a verb. effect is a noun…except when it’s a verb |
| 7:32 |
: nailed it
|
| 7:32 |
I think I saw a few weeks ago that Carpenter has had more balls called for strikes than any other player in MLB this year. |
| 7:33 |
Matt Carpenter has more wrong calls go against him than ANY player in baseball over the last 3 years (the data backs it up!) |
| 7:35 |
Reminds me of a story of a rookie pitcher getting frustrated at the umpire for calling 3 straight balls. The ump goes young man when you throw a strike Mr Hornsby will let you know. It was told by George Will probably apocryphal but still fun. |
| 7:35 |
: love old-timey anecdotes like this
|
| 7:35 |
: i feel like very few players beside matt holliday get thrown out on that.
|
| 7:36 |
Cool Brian. I couldn’t remember if it was just this year or the last 3 years. I think its also because Carp does take some balls for strikes. He just knows what he likes. One of the most selective hitters I seen. |
| 7:36 |
It could make sense that selective guys will have more calls go against them since they’re more likely to take a close pitch. Close pitches would be called wrong more often than not close pitches |
| 7:36 |
: this is an interesting argument. i like it.
|
| 7:37 |
It seems more like a polite discussion. |
| 7:37 |
: i like those too!
|
| 7:38 |
: this is playoff baseball right here baby. nice replays
|
| 7:38 |
: it’s over! holliday is out!
|
| 7:39 |
Fair point re: Holliday, but also the good thing about playing Castro at 2b is when (not if) he bobbles it, he still has a shot to make the play. |
| 7:40 |
Cubbies! |
| 7:41 |
: a wild poll!
|
| 7:41 |
: i mean, seriously, that thing is out of control.
|
| 7:41 |
I think it’s more accurate to say I’m rooting for “Not the Cards!” rather than the Cubbies |
| 7:42 |
Do you agree that Cards fans are the Best Fans in Baseball? It’s hard to be humble when you root for a superior team |
| 7:42 |
| 7:42 |
“Not the Cards” are a very popular team |
| 7:42 |
: appears so!
|
| 7:43 |
As a Cubs fan, thank you for linking that twitter account |
| 7:44 |
: so, strong cubs contingent in here, it appears. cubs fans- favorite cubs memory? thoughts on the wrigley renovations?
|
| 7:46 |
: left side of the st. louis infield gets the ball out quick. carpenter and peralta both showed real fast hands on their double plays. lackey is dealing
|
| 7:46 |
: ha! jeff wrote about the rougned odor slide, which i was planning to do for an instagraphs post later tonight
|
| 7:47 |
: that’s already twice now in three days that we’ve had the same idea for a topic
|
| 7:47 |
No need to have made Wrigley video boards so big. Ntotslly |
| 7:47 |
: that was my first thought upon seeing them, too. i’m all for renovations to modernize an old structure, but something about the integrity of the stadium feels compromised.
|
| 7:48 |
I’d rather the big screen not be there, but it isn’t overly intrusive like in some other stadiums *cough* Yankee Stadium *cough* |
| 7:48 |
The superficial renovations (new scoreboards etc) are way better than expected IMO. The video boards are big but they fit them into the style of the park as much as they could |
| 7:48 |
aw man, just this season i witnessed bryant’s debut @ wrigley as well as his first big league homer @ miller (should prolly mention jake’s 23rd W @ miller, too) – and i can’t complain about having hot doug’s behind the rightfield bleachers… |
| 7:49 |
: my favorite cubs memory, for anyone who cares, was being at wrigley for maddux’s 3000th strikeout
|
| 7:49 |
: that three-months-in-advance ticket purchase turned out to be quite timely.
|
| 7:49 |
August, have you considered that you and Jeff might be the same person, a la Fight Club? |
| 7:49 |
: this has been discussed, yes.
|
| 7:50 |
: i’d prefer neither of us suffer the fate of durden, though.
|
| 7:50 |
: does heyward run on lester here?
|
| 7:51 |
Are you quite tall as well? |
| 7:51 |
: this is the main difference. jeff towers over me. i’m like 5’9
|
| 7:53 |
: there’s the lester effect. heyward’s leads, per statcast: 13ft, 13ft, 14ft, 14ft
|
| 7:54 |
That might as well been a SB. |
| 7:55 |
maddux’s three thousandth is an epic thing to witness! standing O time, i reckon… |
| 7:55 |
: it was pretty fantastic. maddux, only partly because of that, is now my all-time favorite baseball player
|
| 7:55 |
Best memories: Sammy vs McGwire, Kerry Wood’s 20 Ks, the 2003 run up to the playoffs (let’s ignore what happened after) stick out for me but more recently, the Soler 2 HR game vs. STL last year was awesome and felt like the real end of their recent terrible-ness |
| 7:55 |
: have you read sam miller’s article where he walks through the entire kerry wood game? might be my all-time favorite piece of internet baseball writing.
|
| 7:57 |
I had not, will def check it out. My favorite recent Sam Miller Cubs thing is the Kris Bryant Homerun piece http://www.baseballprospect… |
| 7:57 |
: sam’s about as good as it gets
|
| 7:58 |
Astros are the New Royals mention on Cardinal’s radio! |
| 7:58 |
: ha, no shit! what was said?
|
| 7:58 |
: that looked way down the middle. not sure what that K box is seeing.
|
| 7:58 |
: maybe it’s the camera angle/parallax effect
|
| 7:59 |
They basically said the name of the piece haha. They might know more though |
| 7:59 |
: nice
|
| 7:59 |
TBS pitchtrax has been terrible all postseason |
| 8:00 |
: i actually kind of liked the ESPN K zone the other night *ducks*
|
| 8:00 |
http://www.brooksbaseball.n… I think it;s the off angle – those seemed off the corner |
| 8:02 |
PNC and Busch both have CF camera wells, but TBS refuses to use them. |
| 8:03 |
I’ve been okay with ESPN or really anybody else’s…for whatever reason though, it doesn’t seem right on TBS |
| 8:03 |
: you guys wanna just overthrow TBS?
|
| 8:03 |
: anthon rizzo bunt attempt!
|
| 8:04 |
Lots of pitches from Lester so far… looks like we’re gonna get a full serving of the Cubs meh bullpen tonight? |
| 8:04 |
: is the cubs bullpen really meh? top five FIP- and top-10 ERA-
|
| 8:05 |
: rondon, strop and grimm are all quite good, from what i understand
|
| 8:06 |
len kasper just mentioned on the radio call this being cubs/cardinals first meeting in the playoffs (!) – is this black swan ever to manifest again, or shall we look forward to this happening on the regular for years to come? |
| 8:06 |
: i’d imagine it happens again soon. cubs certainly aren’t going anywhere and doesn’t feel like the cardinals will ever not be good again
|
| 8:06 |
Grimm pretty shaky lately…Strop has been awful against the Cardinals, not that that necessarily means much |
| 8:06 |
: how long’s lately? i’m probably willing to side with his dominant season numbers, but relievers are so strange…
|
| 8:07 |
: weak contact all over the place for lackey.
|
| 8:08 |
: besides bryant’s lineout to LCF, has anything really been squared up?
|
| 8:08 |
: CiL is murdering my laptop
|
| 8:09 |
There was another hard hit ball to CF but blanking who it was |
| 8:09 |
Three bad outings for Grimm in the last month or so… I guess he’s still had quite a few good ones. i guess the bad ones just stick out in my mind. |
| 8:10 |
It was Russell I think, hit a rocket after a long at bat |
| 8:10 |
: yeah i think this is right. trying to look it up on gameday but CiL really appears to be doing a number on me
|
| 8:15 |
: batted balls vs. lackey tonight:
popout |
| 8:15 |
Very audible “SHIT” from Lackey on the telecast after that strikeout. |
| 8:15 |
: seems to be a lot of shits and fucks being picked up by the mics so far this postseason. really enjoying it
|
| 8:17 |
: could use more of that imo
|
| 8:17 |
: i got irrationally excited when the mics picked up everything tulo screamed at the umpire after his called third strike at the end of the jays game
|
| 8:17 |
: i always want to know what they’re yelling
|
| 8:18 |
Not to mention the two glorious middle fingers during the bench clearing wednesday |
| 8:18 |
: missed this!
|
| 8:18 |
: cubs hit!
|
| 8:19 |
The several Donaldson “Fuck you”s in a row to Kela today were p funny |
| 8:20 |
Does Statcast route efficiency seem pretty reliable? |
| 8:20 |
: yeah, it’s the timed things that have pretty large error bars.
|
| 8:22 |
You’re pretty cool, August. |
| 8:22 |
: hey thanks jenstrom.
|
| 8:22 |
This Ross-Lester combo at the bottom of the order is brutal. Wonder if Maddon’s wishing he had Addison at #9? |
| 8:22 |
: i’d bet joe maddon thought this over pretty well before writing the lineup down
|
| 8:23 |
What is the context for route efficiency? Letter-grade mentality? |
| 8:23 |
: the definition, as defined by MLB, is: “Divide the distance covered by the fielder by a straight-line distance between the players position at batted ball contact and where the ball was fielded.”
|
| 8:24 |
Is it irrational to be annoyed when pitchers have personal catchers? |
| 8:24 |
: i think it’s kinda cool! i’m actually writing about dickey/martin/thole for monday
|
| 8:24 |
: holy hell how was i not aware that kershaw-degrom is still happening tonight?
|
| 8:24 |
: and soon!
|
| 8:25 |
: how about jon lester moving the runner over like a real hitter
|
| 8:27 |
: gooooood lord.
|
| 8:27 |
I don’t believe in the Kershaw can’t pitch in the postseason thing but would there be any point where we would have enough info for that to be a real thing? |
| 8:27 |
: this is a great question
|
| 8:29 |
: 0-5
|
| 8:29 |
: did i go too small with the answers? should there have been a 50+ option?
|
| 8:30 |
there should be a “i don’t buy dat shizz” option |
| 8:30 |
: ok wait gonna re-do it
|
| 8:31 |
: 0-10
|
| 8:31 |
: ok i think that one’s better.
|
| 8:32 |
: ok so i’m already a little surprised that anyone voted “never,” though those could be in jest. if kershaw made 50 hypothetical postseason starts with a 5.00 ERA, then something is up. his arm wouldn’t be able to handle pitching for 6+ months maybe?
|
| 8:33 |
a mental block’s different from “not a postseason player” |
| 8:33 |
: that’s what i mean, though. that he’s just fundamentally _different_ in the postseason, for whatever reason
|
| 8:33 |
I think somewhere around a full season is right |
| 8:33 |
: this is around what i’d say. i think somewhere between 20-30 starts of a ~5.00 ERA and i start to think maybe he just doesn’t have it in october. depends on what his periphs are, though.
|
| 8:33 |
You can have a 5.00 era and an 2.50 FIP |
| 8:35 |
I’d be more willing to believe it if he also fell apart in the 9th inning of all his shutouts, no-hitters, etc. Or if he hadn’t thrown 200 innings so many times. |
| 8:35 |
: that’s different, though, right? you’re talking about pitches in the first example, and innings in the second example. maybe it’s just a time thing? physically this hypothetical person just can’t handle a six-month, once-every-five-days workload without wearing out
|
| 8:35 |
How many starts did it take for people to readjust expectations for Verlander? That answer is probably in the same ballpark as Kershaw. |
| 8:36 |
Is there a way to measure the carry on the ball in various stadiums and environmental conditions? Like right now it might take Schwaber v Cole type HR to get it out tonight |
| 8:36 |
: not sure, i’d love to know this though.
|
| 8:36 |
Every time they show Lackey close up, I see this gif in my head http://i925.photobucket.com… |
| 8:36 |
: HA! totally forgot about that. i always see the postgame photo of him with the cowboy hat in the clubhouse: http://www.survivinggrady.c…
|
| 8:37 |
: also, i talked to lackey in cleveland this year and he was wearing a similar hat. it wasn’t quite as tall.
|
| 8:38 |
I want to see another Schwarber-Cole HR for the bat flip alone. |
| 8:38 |
: i want to see it for that swing. good lord, that swing.
|
| 8:38 |
: wow! schwarber swinging bunt!
|
| 8:39 |
: not really even swinging. came off the bat like it was swinging, though.
|
| 8:39 |
: schwarber reached 20mph running to first there. he’s not totally slow.
|
| 8:41 |
How many 22 year old professional athletes are totally slow? |
| 8:41 |
: right.
|
| 8:42 |
You heard it here first: Lackey will pitch very well tonight. |
| 8:42 |
: going out on a limb there, Crusty Juggler
|
| 8:42 |
Do you get tired of people asking you if August Fagerstrom is a real name? |
| 8:42 |
: people i meet in real life don’t really ask me that
|
| 8:43 |
Where are you getting runner speed info from? |
| 8:43 |
: i’ve got statcast database access, though i’m not sure for how much longer
|
| 8:44 |
What is your middle name? |
| 8:44 |
: dylan
|
| 8:46 |
: Defensive Replacement Mark Reynolds worked pretty well
|
| 8:46 |
What’s the fastest recorded speed this year? Wanna see how I stack up |
| 8:46 |
: there are definitely some error bars on the numbers, but seems to be somewhere in the mid-20’s
|
| 8:49 |
could you please elaborate re: error bars? |
| 8:49 |
: sometimes the cameras screw up and give crazy times that mess up the data
|
| 8:49 |
What is the slowest top speed this year…? |
| 8:49 |
: slowest _average_ is victor martinez at around 13mph
|
| 8:49 |
Damn, I’m a competitive sprinter and 24ish is my top pace. These guys ain’t slow |
| 8:51 |
hmmm…interesting about the cameras – wonder if they just need more reps, or add’l training… |
| 8:51 |
: not sure. something is definitely up with the statcast systems for the mets and giants, too. their data is essentially unusable this year in it’s current state. don’t know if it could be corrected in the offseason or not. texas, maybe, too, if i recall correctly
|
| 8:51 |
Is route efficiency measured for every player on the field? |
| 8:51 |
: just the guy who caught the ball, i think
|
| 8:52 |
: that’s one way, lester
|
| 8:52 |
: his “not be able to throw overhand to bases” thing is just so, so strange.
|
| 8:52 |
: not that he really had a choice there, but, still.
|
| 8:52 |
Why don’t teams bunt on Lester? Seems like teams are starting to finally take advantage on the bases this year – but why does no one bunt and force him to throw? |
| 8:52 |
: seems like this should happen more, right?
|
| 8:54 |
you gonna be posting on fangraphs, august? |
| 8:54 |
: have for the last three days! i’m here full-time now
|
| 8:54 |
great to hear, man! |
| 8:54 |
: thanks! really happy to be back.
|
| 8:55 |
Time for me to leave FGs, I guess. |
| 8:55 |
: 🙁
|
| 8:56 |
August, were you away on PED suspension? |
| 8:56 |
: i was away on “being an intern for mlb.com” suspension
|
| 8:56 |
Why are gifs frowned upon in the chat feed? Just wondering. |
| 8:56 |
: are they?
|
| 8:58 |
: hell of an outing by lackey. funny that he faced schwarber/rizzo/bryant three times but russell/ross/pitcher spot
|
| 8:58 |
: which, probably would have been russell/montero/pinch-hitter?
|
| 8:58 |
Haha Sullivan and Temple were being GIF police in here earlier. |
| 8:59 |
They are frowned upon because they bog down an already obnoxiously slow application. |
| 8:59 |
Earlier, one of you guys asked people to stop trying to post .gifs, as they found it annoying. |
| 8:59 |
: there’s your answer
|
| 8:59 |
have you ever met pat hughes? i reckon he’s quite the gentleman… |
| 8:59 |
: not sure who pat hughes is
|
| 9:00 |
A general Q on pitcher defense – it’s been said somewhere this year (maybe Cameron on FG Audio?) that some of the best pitchers in baseball (Greinke, Arrieta) also have top 10-20 DRS stats. Do you think they really have above-avg fielding ability? Or do they gain some advantage from regularly inducing weak contact and giving themselves easy plays to make? |
| 9:00 |
: another fascinating idea! keuchel has led the league each of the last two seasons. he had like 13 DRS. totally writing about this
|
| 9:00 |
: keep giving me good topic ideas everyone please thanks ok
|
| 9:00 |
I’m surprised at Matheny yanking Lackey. 1st or 2nd season as a manager Matheny wouldn’t have made that move. Even awful managers can improve! |
| 9:01 |
: feisty joe maddon
|
| 9:02 |
Were there no righty options? 5 outs to go? |
| 9:02 |
: yeah, you’d think denorfia might make an appearance there, yeah?
|
| 9:02 |
Really missed you here. Your articles are top notch quality. Quick question: The strike zone displayed in the Live Game Graphs (WIn Probability) is a lot bigger than the actual strike zone, right? |
| 9:02 |
: not sure about “bigger.” definitely “not accurate” though. probably “misshapen” is the best way to phrase it
|
| 9:03 |
Soler, Baez…. |
| 9:03 |
: or austin jackson
|
| 9:04 |
No right-handed pinch hitter for Coghlan because Siegrist is a huge reverse-split guy. |
| 9:04 |
: this was my first thought but i didn’t look it up. lotta changeups i’m assuming?
|
| 9:05 |
: oh, yeah, wow. siegrist, career: .304 wOBA allowed vs. LHH, .257 wOBA allowed vs. RHH
|
| 9:07 |
What does that sample really mean, though? Is he “truly” worse against lefties? |
| 9:07 |
: right, this is a good question. i know for a fact that a lot of managers use them, though, including maddon, because i asked him about a lineup decision in cleveland, can’t remember who it was but it was against salazar, and he cited salazar’s reverse splits and his changeup as the reason why
|
| 9:08 |
Those splits suggest Matheny went with the “conventional wisdom” of lefty-lefty without actually paying attention to those numbers. |
| 9:08 |
: interesting flip-side to maddon’s rationale
|
| 9:08 |
could be to do w/ the plane |
| 9:09 |
So then PH for the righty then? |
| 9:09 |
: for russell? your only alternative is la stella, who just isn’t good of a hitter despite a (potential) reverse-platoon advantage, and then you take russell’s glove out of the game and have castro at SS
|
| 9:09 |
: tonight is the first time i’ve ever seen footage of tommy pham playing baseball by the way
|
| 9:10 |
: 110 mph off the bat for pham, 431 feet. goodness.
|
| 9:11 |
What is with reverse splits? Is it common? |
| 9:11 |
: seems to me that it’s usually with big changeup guys
|
| 9:12 |
How many games/day do you watch? how much do you watch vs look at numbers/stats? |
| 9:12 |
: was in the press box for all 81 home games this season, watched another assorted… ~40? games throughout the season maybe?
|
| 9:13 |
Why is Lester still in? |
| 9:13 |
: we’ll he’s not anymore! pham is a tough call because there’s no TTO penalty, except for however much fatigue factors into the TTO penalty in the first place
|
| 9:14 |
cool – so which indians pitcher had the best stuff? or would you hafta break it down by pitch? |
| 9:14 |
: i honestly think carrasco might be the best pitcher on the team.
|
| 9:14 |
“weird unscheduled rainout” |
| 9:14 |
: unREscheduled
|
| 9:15 |
what role were you in? what was your primary job(s) |
| 9:15 |
: i was an “associate” beat writer, AKA jordan bastian’s assistant. i either wrote the secondary story for the indians each day, or covered the road team for a series if their beat writer didn’t make the trip to cleveland
|
| 9:16 |
carlos’ #1 pitch? |
| 9:16 |
: that’s what makes him so good– on any given day it can be his fastball, change or slider. usually the change, though.
|
| 9:16 |
: stephen piscotty sure hits baseballs hard!
|
| 9:17 |
: where’s that “cubs’ meh bullpen” guy? ha. maybe you were right…
|
| 9:17 |
: August! Hi!
|
| 9:17 |
: hey there!
|
| 9:17 |
: Everyone else, also hi!
|
| 9:18 |
^ That because Carrasco is getting better or Kluber is getting worse? Both? |
| 9:18 |
: carrasco’s pretty much been their best pitcher since he returned from the bullpen in august last year
|
| 9:20 |
Quick Tribe question, TJ House has dropped off the map what’s his status right now? |
| 9:20 |
: he’s complicated. was bad early, was sent down, got hurt in the minors, then it was learned that he filed a grievance against the indians (and won) that he was already hurt when the optioned him. he’s rehabbing in AZ and is probably like 7th or 8th on their SP depth chart next season
|
| 9:20 |
damn, this playoffs has seen vast quantities of high value drives in est. feet and exit mph going fair… |
| 9:20 |
: i’ve noticed that. rougned odor hit a missile yesterday.
|
| 9:20 |
: This is apparently an Indians chat. August, can you tell me about Francisco Lindor?
|
| 9:21 |
August, opinion on shiny things? |
| 9:21 |
: pretty good chat commenters
|
| 9:21 |
b/c you just revealed yer CLE mole status! |
| 9:22 |
damn, wonder what CLE got in offers/inquiries regarding carlos during trade season… |
| 9:22 |
: i’m sure it was massive. his contract makes him one of the most valuable assets in baseball. the only way they were going to deal him is if they absolutely fleeced another team, which is possible
|
| 9:23 |
“Strop has had his troubles at Busch Stadium. That could be why Maddon brought him in right now, to get it out of his system.” LOLZ |
| 9:23 |
: probably it
|
| 9:23 |
Best pham in baseball!!! |
| 9:26 |
Are you all doing a live blog the rest of the playoffs? |
| 9:26 |
: believe that’s usually the case
|
| 9:26 |
RE Kershaw’s post season ‘struggles”. Why cant people just accept that sometimes shit just happens? Every oitcher has a bad start from time to time. People just don’t care when it happens in May. |
| 9:26 |
: It’s memorable because a bad start in the postseason is visible and important.
|
| 9:26 |
what’s the best thing to eat at Jacobs (or whatever CLE calls it) when i go see Cubs v. Carrasco next season? |
| 9:26 |
: barrio, chicken tacos.
|
| 9:28 |
Just one time we need an announcing crew that rips on the cardinals all game. Just constantly repeating the same crap about hacking, peraltas PED use and la russas DUI |
| 9:28 |
: tom hamilton (indians radio guy) basically does this every game about every team
|
| 9:29 |
: that looked inside
|
| 9:29 |
I should become an announcer just to flex my pun powers. For example, Sterling should just say: “There’s another TEXTbook home run for Texiara. By that I mean barely over the fence. |
| 9:29 |
: sounds like you’ve got a future
|
| 9:30 |
As I said before, Best Fans in Baseball, Best org in baseball, best team in baseball the end. It’s not arrogance when you are just better than everyone else |
| 9:30 |
: ooh boy.
|
| 9:31 |
: really pleased with the end of this game coinciding with the beginning of kershaw/degrom
|
| 9:31 |
: Wainwright!
|
| 9:31 |
Ump: “C’mon Rosie stop giving them something to hit. I’ve gotta get into the clubhouse to watch Kershaw/deGrom” |
| 9:31 |
Please ignore that last guy |
| 9:31 |
Whatever, Cubs have sucked for 100 years, and will for another 100 |
| 9:31 |
: yay
|
| 9:32 |
I’m convinced Cards Fan is a plant out to make us look bad |
| 9:32 |
: no, you think?
|
| 9:32 |
: matheny/molina meeting with rosenthal… hmm…
|
| 9:33 |
: that 2-0 pitch looked like something that kris bryant does a lot of damage to
|
| 9:33 |
: wooow
|
| 9:34 |
will vin be traveling to away games this playoffs? |
| 9:34 |
: Out for the playoffs. Had surgery.
|
| 9:34 |
: well, there it is! cardinals magic is alive and well! thanks for chatting everyone! have some neil and paul!
|
| 9:35 |
: Time to watch the most deserving choice for NL Cy Young.
|
| 9:35 |
DeGrom right |
| 9:35 |
: I think I had deGrom 7th. NL was nuts.
|
| 9:36 |
heh, yeah – staking some territory right off the bat – (grabs popcorn) |
| 9:36 |
: I’m often accused of not having any takes, so I opened with one.
|
| 9:39 |
: Hi everybody!
|
| 9:39 |
: Paul!
|
| 9:39 |
: I have an Autumn Ale Brew from Woodstock Inn Brewery, and I’m ready to do this damn thing.
|
| 9:39 |
: Hey Neil!
|
| 9:40 |
Who has the better hair, DeGrom or Grienke? |
| 9:40 |
: me
|
| 9:40 |
: How about Joe Maddon getting way too cute with his pitching staff, huh? I’ve never seen that. Oh wait, I’ve seen that in every game Joe Maddon has ever managed.
|
| 9:40 |
: ok that’s it for me here. signing off!
|
| 9:40 |
: Water FTW
|
| 9:40 |
: Bye August! Thanks!
|
| 9:40 |
: (I also have water.)
|
| 9:40 |
Bye August! |
| 9:40 |
Paul! What’s Neil wearing? |
| 9:41 |
: I’m guessing Tigers sweatpants and a Porcello shirsey.
|
| 9:41 |
Hi Dr. Nick |
| 9:41 |
: Seriously baby, I can prescribe anything I want!
|
| 9:42 |
: That poll is done. Time for a new one.
|
| 9:42 |
: Dodgers
|
| 9:43 |
Cuzzi leads the NLDS 1-0. |
| 9:43 |
That last game was one of the worst strike zones I’ve seen all year |
| 9:43 |
Hi! I’m Paul! |
| 9:43 |
: So many Pauls.
|
| 9:43 |
’sup paul! |
| 9:43 |
All my picks have been wrong, so Fangraphs is going to lose |
| 9:43 |
: we had a good run
|
| 9:44 |
: We did indeed.
|
| 9:44 |
Is it a take to not have a take? |
| 9:44 |
: Only if you live in Switzerland.
|
| 9:45 |
What makes you pick Kershaw? I argue that Dodger stadium is more of a pitchers park than we realize…which stats take park effects into consideration and do they adjust for park effects on the road and day/night? |
| 9:45 |
: If you don’t start from ERA/RA9, his body of work is more impressive. Don’t get me wrong, not a runaway.
|
| 9:45 |
: Neil is typing a long reply to this.
|
| 9:46 |
: At least, I think he is.
|
| 9:46 |
: It was more of a CIL slowly working reply
|
| 9:47 |
: Assuming that was a Cy Young question, I pick Kershaw because if you come at the king, you best not miss. And Arrieta and Greinke didn’t do enough to knock Kershaw from the throne.
|
| 9:47 |
: Granderson and Cespedes! Go Tigers!
|
| 9:47 |
paul – prescribe this perpetually postapocalyptic cubs supporter succor, pretty please? |
| 9:47 |
: 2010 and 2011 gold gloves, very important info right off the bat
|
| 9:48 |
: I can’t. I loved the Cubs until they dumped Renteria for Maddon, and now I can’t stand them. The only one I am really rooting for is Dexter Fowler.
|
| 9:48 |
The “year of the rookie” really is the year of the rookie! |
| 9:48 |
: Truly, truly I say to you.
|
| 9:48 |
Best hair: DeGrom, Thor, Grienke, or Kershaw? |
| 9:48 |
: Kershaw. deGrom looks like a poodle.
|
| 9:49 |
: Granderson swings at the first pitch, laces a line drive, but it’s right at Ethier.
|
| 9:49 |
i just caught my first foul ball @ miller! fowler leading off the game! any advice on getting him to sign it? |
| 9:49 |
: Hang onto it until you know he’s coming back to town would be my advice. Never mail the players stuff. I’ve seen their mailboxes before.
|
| 9:50 |
Wire quotes to start this off…well done |
| 9:50 |
: I’ve been waiting to scream at someone “come on man, be for real!” like Avon does to Prop Joe in s1
|
| 9:50 |
: All the pieces matter, DB.
|
| 9:50 |
My distaste of the cardinals is greater thanmy distaste for joe maddon. I am a Red Sox fan by the way. |
| 9:50 |
: I am too. There really is no wrong answer.
|
| 9:50 |
thanx paul! he really came through in the wildcard playin |
| 9:51 |
: He did indeed.
|
| 9:51 |
: Good at-bat here from Wright. This is really nice to see. Every time he gets hurt, I assume he’s played his last game.
|
| 9:51 |
Thankfully David Wright’s glutes have a clean medical history #infographics |
| 9:52 |
Life would be easier if Maddon managed the Cardinals |
| 9:52 |
: Totally!
|
| 9:52 |
I’m a Dodger fan, a Kershaw fan, a sabermetrically-inclined fan, and I myself can’t shake the idea that Kershaw somehow can’t get it done in the playoffs. Someone stroke my fears, please? |
| 9:52 |
: 80 career xFIP- in postseason
|
| 9:53 |
: Yeah, I’m confident in him.
|
| 9:53 |
What an at bat! |
| 9:53 |
Oh great. We get to stare at Larry King all night. |
| 9:53 |
This Wright at bat is doing more to convince me Kershaw can’t get it done than that 80 career xFIP- is convincing my otherwise. ughughugh |
| 9:53 |
Do any of the fielding independent stats account for pitches / batterfaced |
| 9:54 |
: Neil would know this better than I would. Partially because he’s the Librarian, and partially because he’s sober.
|
| 9:54 |
: Ours don’t
|
| 9:54 |
yesterday dontrelle compared clayton w/ david price – overburdening themselves w/ self-imposed pressure |
| 9:55 |
: I think Dontrelle is just excited to have a paying job again. He was all over the place yesterday.
|
| 9:55 |
That’s Larry King’s son. |
| 9:55 |
: Verlander was bad in October until he wasn’t. It’s a non issue
|
| 9:55 |
I played baseball with Larry King’s son. Not a nice guy. |
| 9:55 |
: Good to know!
|
| 9:56 |
Where is the line MLB is willing to go with the highlighter thing? Which is the first team with neon green jersey…Marlins |
| 9:56 |
: I’m just glad no one is wearing an alternate jersey tonight. I’ve had enough of them, to be honest. Which makes the marketer in me shudder, but still.
|
| 9:57 |
: Someone is going to have to explain to me why Murphy is hitting fourth and Duda sixth.
|
| 9:57 |
The last time I saw somebody called out on a pitch that low it was Leg Before Wicket |
| 9:58 |
Does everyone have the TBS broadcast? Does their pitch tracker adjust for batter height? So, in other words, could the vertical “zone” be inaccurate on their tracker? |
| 9:58 |
: Well, we don’t really know for sure, but I would assume that this is a basic element that they have taken into account.
|
| 9:58 |
Paul, Murphy is clutch. Get it together. |
| 9:58 |
: So clutch.
|
| 9:58 |
: I dont think it’s a good graphic.
|
| 9:59 |
The pitch actually looked totally fine and in the zone on Gameday |
| 9:59 |
Duda is 1-11, 7 K v Kershaw |
| 9:59 |
: The pitches outside the zone are not proportionally outside the zone
|
| 9:59 |
: That is totally and completely irrelevant. Sigh.
|
| 9:59 |
: Explain that, Neil.
|
| 10:00 |
7 K out of 11 is irrelevant? Its a little relevant |
| 10:00 |
: Inside the zone, the plot seems right, but pitches ouside the zone are not shown correctly, so the graphic makes it look 8 inches outside when it’s 1.5 inches out
|
| 10:00 |
: No, it isn’t. Sorry. It’s 11 plate appearances. That small a sample – especially when it’s spread out over a long time – is never relevant.
|
| 10:00 |
: OK, thanks Neil.
|
| 10:01 |
Oh, the irrationality of fandom. I know, in my head, exactly what is right, or at least what is most likely true, regarding pitching, small samples, and “clutch”. And yet, my heart, which yell louder than my brain, fills me with doubt. I need my team to win it all, so I can get that release, and pump the brakes on my fandom, knowing I’ve experience the highest high. |
| 10:02 |
: Being a sports fan is a really weird thing.
|
| 10:02 |
: Just checked – half of Duda’s PAs against Kershaw are from 2012 and 2013 when Duda was still a replacement player.
|
| 10:02 |
: It is really nice when you get that, Bip. Definitely worth it.
|
| 10:02 |
: If they were last week I still wouldn’t care
|
| 10:03 |
: I know, I’m just saying that line is especially irrelevant.
|
| 10:03 |
uh, sorry for being clueless (have had the telly muted to listen to the cubs radio call) – but who exactly are on the broadcast at the moment? |
| 10:04 |
: It’s Ernie Johnson, Ron Darling and Cal Ripken Jr.
|
| 10:04 |
Couple that w Duda’s overall split w L and Murph better v L I am not sure the argument that Duda should hit 4th |
| 10:04 |
: Johnson, Darling, and cal
|
| 10:04 |
: For their careers, Duda has a 91 wRC+ vs lefties and Murphy has an 88 wRC+ against them. This was a stupid decision by Collins, as was the decision to play Cuddyer.
|
| 10:05 |
When did the sideline reporter become a thing? |
| 10:06 |
: In the late 80s, I believe. The first was New England’s own Will McDonough. This was in football, not baseball, mind you.
|
| 10:06 |
: Probably not first one to say this, but Seager has some Utley in his swing.
|
| 10:06 |
not a bad thing to have in one’s swing |
| 10:07 |
I stand corrected on the splits….was looking at wrong column |
| 10:07 |
I think you’re right Neil – even though K’s mean more than, say, a BABIP-driven 0-for-11, 11 at bats is still nothing. However, do you think someone watching might see that Dude seems particularly helpless against Kershaw? Or is that always basically going to be covariant with the K’s? |
| 10:07 |
: No worries dude. Wasn’t attacking you personally, just the dumb decision by Collins. He ran out an “look I did stuff!” lineup. Nauseating.
|
| 10:07 |
: A player absolutely can be helpsless against a pitcher, you just can’t see it from the outside in those quantitites.
|
| 10:08 |
: deGrom staying away, away, away from Adrian Gonzalez.
|
| 10:08 |
How much do you want to cut the hair of the first four pitchers in this series? As a bald man, I go with muchly |
| 10:09 |
: Can’t say I really care all that much. None of their hair situations are as bad as Dallas Keuchel’s beard.
|
| 10:09 |
: Gonzalez finally got his pitch, and missed it.
|
| 10:09 |
: deGrom is super ugly though.
|
| 10:10 |
99 wow |
| 10:10 |
: 99 on the TBS gun. 98 on Gamedays. Either way, hella fast.
|
| 10:10 |
wow paul – so who’s a dish, ya reckon? |
| 10:11 |
: Kershaw, for starters.
|
| 10:11 |
Say that again. |
| 10:11 |
: YOUR BEARD IS TERRIBLE, KEUCHEL!
|
| 10:11 |
Scruffy beards are pretty popular in baseball |
| 10:11 |
: I know, but some people take it too far and ruin it for people with good beards everywhere, like myself.
|
| 10:11 |
Keuchel’s beard is amazing. Stop hating. |
| 10:12 |
: I am pro beard, but take some pride in it
|
| 10:12 |
: Your face should stop hating.
|
| 10:12 |
So in other words, Neil, you’re a beard elitist |
| 10:12 |
: Seems that way
|
| 10:13 |
If you had a job where you could have a scruffy beard, you would have one. Like, baseball players, or hipsters. All of our heroes have beards, is what I am saying. |
| 10:14 |
: Honestly, I wouldn’t. My beard can get super thick like Keuchel’s, but it becomes wicked itchy and irritating. I can only grow it out that thick from Dec-Feb when it is super cold out.
|
| 10:14 |
: And, I absolutely have a job like that. Obviously.
|
| 10:14 |
: Well that was weird.
|
| 10:15 |
: I wonder if the infield behind Kershaw would have got that.
|
| 10:15 |
I think he really did try to kick-save that to first |
| 10:15 |
Paul, how drunk are you? |
| 10:15 |
: I’ve only had the one. I’ll get another in a minute. Working up the will to stand.
|
| 10:16 |
Here comes K 8/12… |
| 10:16 |
just kidding hes gonna single |
| 10:16 |
Maybe he should hit higher in the order |
| 10:16 |
: DB is all over the place.
Cuddyer isn’t though – he’s playing right to type. He had NO CHANCE. |
| 10:17 |
I have seen Kershaw stick various extremities in the paths of batted balls for years, on purpose. I would think they would have put something in his contract about that. |
| 10:17 |
: Eh, he’d probably hurt himself trying to hold himself back from sticking his limbs out to bloc the ball.
|
| 10:17 |
Are there lefties who hit Kershaw well? |
| 10:19 |
: Here you go:
I did it for bats left or both. So it might not be 100% accurate. |
| 10:20 |
: When it’s just left, it looks like it is just Parra, Carpenter, Votto and Utley:
|
| 10:20 |
Kershaw looked bored with that part of the lineup. Almost offended. |
| 10:20 |
: I was too.
|
| 10:21 |
Including both in there probably not right, as they would all bat righty against him right? |
| 10:21 |
: Ya probably, that’s why I did both splits. Take from them what you may.
|
| 10:21 |
To ShinyThing: Kershaw has very very small platoon split, since he’s so over the top. Also: Adam Dunn has the most homers off Kershaw of any player |
| 10:21 |
: And he retired!
|
| 10:21 |
: Oof. CIL attacked me. Back.
|
| 10:22 |
Does Kershaw have a pitch count today, even unoffically? |
| 10:22 |
: I sincerely doubt it. 150, maybe?
|
| 10:22 |
If you bat an ‘rbi guy’ 9th is he stillan rbi guy? |
| 10:22 |
: Depends on how dumb your manager is.
|
| 10:23 |
Paul, do you like Turner’s beard? Bonus points for a color that pops? |
| 10:23 |
: It’s better than Keuchel’s. And it seems more natural.
|
| 10:23 |
: Not sure I have seen “shin guard removing” before realizing it’s a strike
|
| 10:24 |
: Well, that went about how you’d expect
|
| 10:24 |
: Hey Neil, I think the TBS box is off vertically as well. That 3-1 strike to Turner wasn’t as low on Gameday as it was on TBS.
|
| 10:24 |
: Makes sense
|
| 10:24 |
: And LOOKIE LOOKIE, Cuddyer screwed up in the field too.
|
| 10:24 |
: I know he is old and hurt, but WOW that was a really bad play
|
| 10:25 |
: Ethier bead game is strong
|
| 10:25 |
You’d think that after 13 years in the big leagues, he could catch a line drive right at him. |
| 10:25 |
: You WOULD think that. Unless the player is a cripple.
|
| 10:26 |
That Cuddyer miss might bring up positive memories for Dodger fans of Matt Holiday in the 2009 NLDS |
| 10:26 |
: The difference is that Holliday misjudged his miss. Cuddyer didn’t misjudge that ball – he’s just too old, fat and slow to get there.
|
| 10:27 |
: Ethier definitely swung though.
|
| 10:27 |
Old, fat, and slow is no way to go through life. |
| 10:28 |
You would think he’d be able to catch balls that hit his glove even if he was a cripple…. |
| 10:28 |
: Late time. Rough inning for the umpire
|
| 10:29 |
: Ya, well, he didn’t.
|
| 10:29 |
Oh, that’s not how I saw it, it looked to me like Cuddyer was going back, stopped because he thought he went far enough, but the ball was actually too far. Could be that I misread it at the time. |
| 10:29 |
: Fair enough.
|
| 10:30 |
please gif the cuddyer miss |
| 10:30 |
: Oh man, def not my forte. Sorry.
|
| 10:31 |
: Also, I’m really sorry. CiL is crawling right now. I’m debating ending this chat and starting a new one.
|
| 10:32 |
Interesting IBB to Pederson. I almost wonder if part of it is not that they’re scared of him, but that they don’t want to waste pitches on him, given his long at bats. |
| 10:33 |
: Maybe. But I’d never want to be turning over that lineup quicker.
|
| 10:33 |
: Pretty common to IBB the guy in front of the pitcher. Doubt they thought about it like that
|
| 10:34 |
: Pretty disciplined at-bat by Kershaw until he waved at strike three.
|
| 10:36 |
As a young person, that boner-drug ad is so f’in patronizing. Think it works on old guys? |
| 10:37 |
: Absolutely. If it didn’t, they wouldn’t be running them.
|
| 10:40 |
: Well that was a banner two minutes. My computer died, and then I spilled my beer on my shirt.
|
| 10:40 |
: There are now way too many comments in the queue about viagra
|
| 10:40 |
How does MLB select umpires for the postseason? Is it based on call accuracy during the season? Seniority? |
| 10:40 |
: I have no idea, actually?
|
| 10:41 |
: Via Ben http://grantland.com/the-tr…
|
| 10:41 |
: Probably a little of both, with a healthy dose of “who is actually healthy” mixed in.
|
| 10:43 |
Send Grandy here? |
| 10:43 |
: No. Kershaw is amazing at holding runners
|
| 10:44 |
Wasn’t there some FG article about umps supposedly squeezing the pitcher on 2 strike counts. |
| 10:44 |
: The zone definitely gets smaller with 2 strikes. I’m sure we’ve written about it
|
| 10:45 |
: OK everyone. If you refresh your web browser, you will see a second chat window. Go there, we’re moving this puppy.
|
| 10:45 |
: I’m going to end this chat window.
|
| 10:44 |
: Hi. Everyone come down here!
|
| 10:46 |
Do I need to repost my question? |
| 10:46 |
: Yeah, repost whatever. Can’t bring it with us
|
| 10:46 |
: Oh my goodness this is much better
|
| 10:47 |
TBS use showed Cespedes’s pretty balanced HR total for strike zone quartiles. Is that common? |
| 10:47 |
: If you only cut the zone into four parts, I think so.
|
| 10:47 |
: OK. So, pretty sure the problem was that there was just a ton of unapproved questions in the queue from earlier in the day. Hopefully this is better.
|
| 10:47 |
There are rules about what a pitcher can have on his arm, because it can be distracting. Justin Miller was forced to wear a sleeve to cover tattoos, for instance. Is there any equivalent rule that would spare us from the highlighter arm of Cespedes? |
| 10:47 |
: No. The pitcher thing is about being able to see the ball.
|
| 10:47 |
It’s kind of weird and arbitrary to do quartiles though, right? |
| 10:48 |
: Yes.
|
| 10:48 |
Are we in a Golden Age of starting pitching, or am I just underestimating how down hitting is? So many guys with more than 9 k/9 and less than 2 bb/9. |
| 10:48 |
: Sort of hard to separate. I think it’s a bit of both. Big strikezone and lots of guys training to throw 95+.
|
| 10:48 |
Fangraphs tends to split the zone into 9ths, right? |
| 10:49 |
: That’s sort of standard. Generally, the four part zone is bad just because most HR are coming from the middle and all four zones have a claim to that
|
| 10:49 |
Just got done working – is this zone as bad as TBS’s thing is making it look? |
| 10:49 |
: Not really. TBS graphic is not good
|
| 10:50 |
We’re in a golden age of Umpshow |
| 10:51 |
: Uhhhh….
|
| 10:51 |
: Seager’s reaction dot gif
|
| 10:51 |
: OK, so if you refresh again, you’ll see the entire day’s chat until I closed that window under the new window.
|
| 10:51 |
?????? Cuddy? |
| 10:52 |
: As Daniel Craig said in “Road To Perdition,” it’s all so fu****g hysterical.
|
| 10:52 |
When did the Mets trade for Hanley? |
| 10:52 |
deGrom is so angry |
| 10:52 |
Cuddyer still stinks awfully |
| 10:52 |
A rare play where the ground rule double may have actually given the batter an extra base. |
| 10:53 |
: I watched Torii Hunter play the outfield for two years but even I might have to look away
|
| 10:53 |
: Not sure about that. Say Cuddyer catches it on a hop. He’s running thr wrong way, and has no arm. I’d still try for second.
|
| 10:53 |
As long as deGrom doesn’t pull a Sean Rodriguez and break his hand, he’ll recover |
| 10:53 |
I mean this is not Cuddyer’s first time in the outfield….? |
| 10:54 |
: It’s definitely not his first time.
|
| 10:54 |
Cuddyer is hilarious |
| 10:54 |
Jacob deGrom is kneecapping Cuddyer in the dugout. |
| 10:54 |
And to think the Mets gave up a draft pick for him! |
| 10:54 |
: I can just picture Jeff Bridich watching this game tonight and thinking, “thank god, we dodged a bullet there.”
|
| 10:55 |
Watch Cuddyer become the MVP of the postseason after this moment. Hit 100’s of home runs. |
| 10:55 |
| 10:55 |
: Don’t hold your breath.
|
| 10:55 |
I’m shocked- SHOCKED- that a guy who turned down 1/15 and signed for 2/21 let himself go to complete crap in year 1. |
| 10:56 |
DeGrom’s high pitch count could be a factor pretty soon. Stupid Cuddyer. |
| 10:56 |
This game feels really slow compared to Cubs-Cardinals. |
| 10:58 |
: Pace this year:
Lackey – 22.0 Lester – 22.5 Kershaw – 22.5 The moral of the story – it’s all Cuddyer’s fault. |
| 10:58 |
Is Sonic telling me that I should eat there if I’m a moron? I don’t understand these ads. |
| 10:58 |
: They were cooler when I was 23. I’m not 23 anymore, but there are definitely people who are.
|
| 10:59 |
: Well then
|
| 10:59 |
: What a smart move to hit Daniel Murphy cleanup, just like I was saying all along.
|
| 10:59 |
DeGrom only 8 pitches ahead of Kershaw after 3. Very fascist game from both sides so far |
| 10:59 |
high-ish pitch counts for both even though nobody’s scoring |
| 11:00 |
Daniel murphy should do boner ads because that was a HUGE DONG |
| 11:00 |
: Paul, another network not showing the replay in favor of high fives!
|
| 11:00 |
: Stupid TBS.
|
| 11:00 |
: LOL did they just show his 4th inning ERA?
|
| 11:00 |
: Cool story.
|
| 11:00 |
“And Kershaw’s postseason woes continue!” |
| 11:01 |
: I wasn’t paying attention, did they really say that?
|
| 11:01 |
Not a good pitch. |
| 11:01 |
Why can’t Fangraphs have such in-depth analysis? |
| 11:01 |
: Trying. Trying.
|
| 11:01 |
: None of us played the game!
|
| 11:01 |
Just anticipating |
| 11:02 |
We should implant the part of Buhrle that makes him work so fast into every other pitcher |
| 11:02 |
: I think it’s called a brain.
|
| 11:02 |
: This is the beginning of a very niche horror movie
|
| 11:02 |
: Or Toy Story 3. Do you think the other pitchers have a Spanish Mode, too?
|
| 11:03 |
This is where the Dodgers score no runs in the game and we hear about Kershaw’s “woes.”… As he strikes out everybody. |
| 11:03 |
Trachsel’s brain would be a horror movie. |
| 11:03 |
There’s a fine line between baseball pace and 80s B-Horror films. |
| 11:04 |
Was Joc playing really shallow there, or is that how he normally plays? |
| 11:04 |
: Come on, I’m sort of your doctor.
|
| 11:04 |
: I’m not sure, any full time Dodger fans have a sense of how shallow he plays?
|
| 11:04 |
Okay I’m biased, but the buster posey assurance commercial is kind of the best. |
| 11:05 |
: I love that commercial
|
| 11:05 |
: There’s no kind of about it. It’s the best ad in a brilliant ad campaign.
|
| 11:05 |
: The substitute teacher one is also excellent.
|
| 11:05 |
Okay, Posey isn’t delivering any babies, but if you had to pick one major leaguer to do so, who would you select? |
| 11:06 |
: EIther someone super smart like Jeff Francis (he was a physics major) or someone with soft hands like – well, like Posey, or maybe Andrelton Simmons.
|
| 11:06 |
Certainly not Cuddyer because he’d drop it. |
| 11:06 |
AJ Ellis literally delivered his baby on the side of the road. |
| 11:06 |
: Wait, is that true?
|
| 11:06 |
My DirecTV went out earlier in a storm and I had that image of Buster Posey staring at me locked onscreen for 5 minutes |
| 11:07 |
: Could be worse.
|
| 11:07 |
So I have a gentlemen’s bet with a Dodger fan in LA. whichever team wins, if the Mets win he has to wear a Mets Jersey in an LA bar and vice-versa. Which player from each team do you think would be the one to make the other person wear? |
| 11:07 |
| 11:07 |
: Gotta be Turner for the sheer cruelty of it on the Dodgers side. On the Mets side, gotta be Cuddyer. Also for cruelty. But a different kind of cruelty.
|
| 11:08 |
: Mets – Colon
|
| 11:08 |
: Agree on Turner
|
| 11:08 |
Not that Joc is an elite CF, but good center fielders tend to play shallower right? It’s worse for a ball to go over your head than to drop in front of you, so bad fielders play deep to prevent that, right? As a Dodger fan, it’s never struck me that Joc plays very shallow. Definitely doesn’t play deep though. |
| 11:08 |
: Oh snap. That’s amazing. I went with my wife both times, and I wouldn’t have wanted to do that. Not saying I couldn’t have…just that I wouldn’t want to.
|
| 11:08 |
: Typically guys play shallow if they believe in their range
|
| 11:09 |
: Colon is a little too adorable though. People would just kind of chuckle and not give you a hard time.
|
| 11:09 |
Cuddyer and Kemp |
| 11:09 |
I’d vote for Frenchy to deliver a baby. You could easily prank him into doing it for real, after all. |
| 11:09 |
Definitely not Buckner. |
| 11:09 |
Will Conforto start from now on? |
| 11:09 |
: Apparently Cuddyer is starting against lefties.
|
| 11:09 |
“guys play shallow if they believe in their range” + a conversation about pregnancies… the obvious joke is left as an exercise for the reader. |
| 11:10 |
maybe Piazza in a mets jersey? |
| 11:10 |
Piazza |
| 11:10 |
I’m friends with a Mets fan who’s last name is actually “Colon” and he doesn’t own a Bartolo jersey. Should I stop hanging out with him? |
| 11:10 |
: Well you guys are going all historical on me now. I was using current season only.
|
| 11:10 |
: Does he own ANY jerseys? If yes, yes
|
| 11:11 |
: But in terms of bets such as this, I once made a bet with a friend that I’d wear his team’s hat – the Giants – if his team won the 2002 World Series. So I bought it in advance of Game 6. Needless to say, after Ortiz was pulled, and the Angels came back, I taunted him MERCILESSLY the rest of the night, and then all through Game 7.
|
| 11:11 |
: He was so mad that he flew in to watch Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS with me, and taunted the sh*t out of me in return when Aaron Boone happened. Karma is a b*tch.
|
| 11:12 |
John Rocker Braves jersey seems like the worst to wear to a Mets bar. |
| 11:12 |
I’m so rooting for a Dickey-Colon WS Matchup |
| 11:12 |
: Ohhh, what’s the worst combination possible?
|
| 11:13 |
: Maybe a Mets Strawberry shirsey? Well, no, I guess some sort of Giants shirsey…
|
| 11:13 |
Should challenge Granderson’s arm there. |
| 11:13 |
A Bonds shirt? |
| 11:13 |
Jeremy Guthrie started game 7 of the WS last year. Anything’s possible. |
| 11:14 |
Cespedes did his best to get there before Cuddyer on Joc’s pop-up. |
| 11:14 |
: Ha.
|
| 11:14 |
Cuddy didn’t screw up! |
| 11:14 |
Cuddyer catch! |
| 11:14 |
: Miracles do happen.
|
| 11:15 |
: Who would have pinch hit for Kershaw here? I wouldn’t have, but it definitely seems frustrating that the Dodgers can’t break through.
|
| 11:15 |
A youkilis jersey at the porcello family bbq |
| 11:15 |
Papelbon jersey in Washington. |
| 11:15 |
: Not with two outs
|
| 11:15 |
No way |
| 11:15 |
Best to force him to wear a jersey and have that jersey be of someone laughable. More probe to cruel and aggressive homer ridicule. |
| 11:16 |
I have never been clear on pinch-hitting rules for pitchers… can they keep playing? What happens to the hitter? |
| 11:16 |
: They cannot keep pitching, no. The pinch hitter is either double switched into the field, or he comes out of the game.
|
| 11:16 |
Don’t pinch hit here, but I fully expect to be upset when Mattingly gives Kershaw another at bat in the bottom of the 6th or 7th. |
| 11:16 |
A-rod jersey in Boston. |
| 11:16 |
Papelbon jersey in DC, Papelbon jersey in Philadelphia, Papelbon jersey anywhere. |
| 11:16 |
The hitter can stay in the game and pitch, though, right? |
| 11:17 |
: Kershaw is making him work. I like it.
|
| 11:17 |
: Yes, in theory
|
| 11:17 |
: Oh man, he barreled that!
|
| 11:17 |
Kershaw going to square up something. Maybe the air, but something. |
| 11:17 |
: He made that fun
|
| 11:17 |
: He did square it up! He did!
|
| 11:18 |
Both pitchers are good hitters. Could be fun. At what point do we put deGrom in the conversation of being an elite shut down pitcher – some people see it, others just can’t get their heads around it. Are we approaching the enough is enough scenario and he needs to be in the convo? |
| 11:18 |
LGM |
| 11:18 |
: Yeah, he’s there. Just so much top level pitching right now that he gets lost.
|
| 11:18 |
Cespedes’ center field ability increases his value, correct? Even if it is just that he can play center for two years of the contract. |
| 11:19 |
: He’s there now for me. I wanted to see year two, and he was just as good as the first year. The skepticism stems from him being old for a rookie last year.
|
| 11:19 |
: It should wash out for Yo in CF with the positional adjustment, but his perceived value is higher and it allows you to get better hitters in the lineup, so yes
|
| 11:20 |
: the funny thing is that cespedes was really bad in center previously. he looks slimmer this year though.
|
| 11:20 |
: He was awesome in LF in Detroit.
|
| 11:20 |
Currently a sad reflection of the Dodgers offense tonight, that the best heart-in-your-mouth-will-we-score-moment came from…Kershaw. Early days, but..this doesn’t help the narrative. |
| 11:20 |
Re: Cespedes, the A’s tried to play him in CF when they first got him, but as I recall, the problem at the time was more his communication / his ability to “be the captain outfielder” or whatever you want to call the CF’s role. Presumably he’s better at it now that he’s had more time in the league. |
| 11:20 |
I think I’m getting blocked. C’est la vie. |
| 11:21 |
: no blocking. queue is furious right now.
|
| 11:21 |
Mets at a disadvantage here just via team composition? Seems like they have a lot less run manufacturing ability than the Dodgers, if it’s still a one-run game late. |
| 11:21 |
Make sense that advanced metrics that rely on human inputs underrate CFs that play shallow because everyone looks worse having a ball go over their head than drop in front of them? |
| 11:21 |
: The Dodgers are the deepest team, but the Mets aren’t at a huge disadvantage right now, no.
|
| 11:22 |
: That’s not how the metrics work. Human stringers input data, not judgements
|
| 11:22 |
Kershaw only has 9 Ks? Talk about choking in the Post Season. |
| 11:22 |
Pop quiz for the chat moderators: where did the Giants and the Dodgers get their team colors of Orange and Blue, respectively? (answer coming in a few.) |
| 11:23 |
Mets fan checking in, this pitching match up is just too awesome. Then I remember tomorrow is grienke vs syndergaard and get too happy |
| 11:23 |
Do you see the “pitcher moves to the field for a batter to let a reliever pitch to current batter, then comes back into pitch” scenario ever becoming a thing? |
| 11:24 |
: I wrote about it like a year ago
|
| 11:24 |
: I do not, no. The Astros did it a couple times last season (this season?) and it worked, but it’s pretty nerve wracking.
|
| 11:24 |
What’s the over under on total strikeouts this game? 20? 25? |
| 11:24 |
: go higher
|
| 11:24 |
: It won’t be a thing, but it should be, mathematically
|
| 11:25 |
So Cards were first home team to win a postseason game. Also Cuddyer is awful. |
| 11:25 |
TBS isn’t telling me Kershaw’s ERA in the 5th inning! |
| 11:25 |
: no the royals were.
|
| 11:25 |
NM royals won… |
| 11:25 |
What’s the best (non-player) occupation in professional baseball? |
| 11:26 |
: bullpen catcher
|
| 11:26 |
Why is everyone hating on OFs playing deep? Isn’t it better to have a ball land in front of you for a single than have one go over your head for a double? |
| 11:27 |
: cutting down on singles is good, and playing shallow allows you to get to them, while balls hit far are usually ones with long hang times, so you can get back to them
|
| 11:27 |
Haha thanks for telling he whole story, Paul |
| 11:27 |
: np
|
| 11:27 |
Giants and Dodgers (and Yankees) got their colors from the NYC flag, Orange and Blue and Grey. Hence the Mets being Blue and Orange, though — I don’t have a reference for this, but — I heard that the Mets had to get permissions from LAD and SFG to use the blue and orange. |
| 11:27 |
: i actually do remember this now that youre saying it. but i couldnt remember it when you asked, so you win.
|
| 11:28 |
If Shohei Otani gets posted, we might see more of the “starting pitcher leaves to play the field briefly” scenario. See this article: http://ftw.usatoday.com/201… |
| 11:28 |
: cool!
|
| 11:28 |
Can i get a link Neal? I’d love to read about it. |
| 11:28 |
| 11:29 |
Kershaw/deGrom: Awesome! Greinke/Syndergaard: Incredible! Harvey/any other Dodgers’ pitcher: you know, I have laundry that I need to do. |
| 11:29 |
Considering that the shift has now been beaten a number of times tonight (Morales and Zobrist in KC, now Granderson), what are the mods’ opinions on the extreme shifts we’re starting to see? |
| 11:29 |
: Strongly in favor
|
| 11:30 |
: keep doing them
|
| 11:31 |
Does Scott Boras ever go see his players in person? I’d love to see some shots of him writhing in the stands as Harvey piles up pitches this post-season. |
| 11:31 |
: This would be a really fun tumblr
|
| 11:31 |
Not shifting just seems indefensible. How can you possibly think that the optimal positioning is identical for dramatically different hitters? |
| 11:32 |
: Boras is frequently behind the plate at Dodgers and Angels games, yes.
|
| 11:32 |
: Yeah, if you think about it, standard fielding spots make no logical sense.
|
| 11:32 |
: Having said that, Steve, it may get beat more often in the postseason, just because teams are better able to focus on the specific matchups in front of them.
|
| 11:32 |
: During the season you wouldn’t want to do that as much.
|
| 11:32 |
: IN the postseason, it’s anything to get an edge.
|
| 11:33 |
I think we’re in a different golden age of pitching. Now, there are a ton of really good pitchers. But, not that long ago, Randy, Pedro, Clemens, Maddux, were all pitching at the same time. Only Kershaw right now is on their level, and even that is arguable. |
| 11:33 |
: Very arguable. And i love Kershaw.
|
| 11:34 |
So, let’s say Kershaw goes 7, K’s 10, doesn’t allow any more walks or runs, and Dodgers lose 1-0. Is this game used as evidence Kershaw isn’t a postseason pitcher? |
| 11:34 |
: It will be in some corners, yes.
|
| 11:35 |
The combined salary of the Mets playoff starting pitchers is 1.6 million dollars. That has be to the least combined salary of a starting playoff pitching squad in modern day? |
| 11:35 |
: In modern day, it’s probably close. Well, unless Colon pitches at some point. Let’s see what shakes out.
|
| 11:36 |
Kershaw quietly working on a 21-K game |
| 11:37 |
Tell me everythings gonna be alright |
| 11:38 |
: I won’t, but Treach and Vinny will.
|
| 11:38 |
Already at 20 combined K’s before the end of the 5th. |
| 11:38 |
Well if this keeps going, by 2045 everybody will K 100% of the time, so the other 7 defenders can sit around playing duck-duck-goose |
| 11:39 |
What’s the record for most combined strikeouts in a 9-inning playoff game? |
| 11:39 |
: Good question. Anyone?
|
| 11:40 |
Dollar/WAR (inflation considered), is it unprecedented for a division winner? |
| 11:40 |
Has anyone looked at whether it’s harder for elite pitchers in a low run environment to put up the godly WAR numbers that guys like Randy Johnson did? If you allow 50% of league average runs in a 3.5 run environment, your WAR is going to be much lower than the guy who allows 50% of league average in a 5.0 run environment. I’m not sure if this is a thing, but it seems to make sense. |
| 11:41 |
: On the $/WAR, again let’s see how the postseason shakes out. I could see Colon getting a spot start.
On the WAR numbers, not sure, that would make for an interesting Neil Weinberg THT article! |
| 11:42 |
DeGrom is over 90 pitches. He gets more inning? Isn’t that kind of nuts? |
| 11:42 |
: That sounds like a hint.
|
| 11:43 |
: No, it’s the playoffs.
|
| 11:43 |
: Pitch until you think he’s not effective
|
| 11:43 |
: It feels like playoff announcers have never seen a fly ball sometimes
|
| 11:43 |
Do other agents complain about their pitchers’ innings and pitch counts? Is Boras the only one vocal about this or just the only one with the juice to get it into the press? |
| 11:44 |
Dunno about playoffs, but 31 K’s seems to be the answer I found. 1997 regular season game between Mariners and Rangers. |
| 11:44 |
: Other agents keep that kind of thing anonymous
|
| 11:44 |
To be fair TBS doesn’t have any baseball announcers |
| 11:44 |
: Ouch.
|
| 11:45 |
I think that’s the rub on Kershaw being able to be on the level of Johnson or Pedro. He’s doing what they did, essentially, but in a general lower run-scoring league so his FIP-, for example, is not as low. In isolation, he’s every bit as great, but adjusting for environment hurts him some. |
| 11:45 |
: This is a really hard question to answer, because you’re getting into the whole idea of Babe Ruth sucking if you put him in 1990
|
| 11:46 |
my no-doubt witty comment didn’t get posted, I must be getting blocked. auf wiedersehen |
| 11:46 |
: Nope, no one is getting blocked. We love all of you.
|
| 11:46 |
that earlier guess of 25 total Ks looking absurdly conservative |
| 11:46 |
: Yes. Yes it does.
|
| 11:46 |
Do you think it cuts a pitcher’s soul when the opposing pitcher get a hit? Or worse, a HR? |
| 11:47 |
Well that wasn’t really what was asked. The question was basically if the WAR distribution gets stretched in a high run environment. Guys who are 50% better than average (either pitching or hitting, really) are more runs better than average in a high run environment, so their WAR may be inflated relative to the same guys in a low run environment. |
| 11:47 |
: Probably.
|
| 11:47 |
: BUT is it the same guy? That’s what I’m saying
|
| 11:47 |
: Is a 1.50 ERA always a 1.50 ERA? You have to impose that assumption as an analyst.
|
| 11:47 |
: Burt, what you’re saying makes an intuitive sense, but I don’t know that it plays out that way.
|
| 11:48 |
0.22 xFIP for Kershaw tonight, and yet the stories tomorrow will doubtless use the phrase “post-season demons” |
| 11:48 |
Agreed that it may not play out that way. I think it’s an interesting hypothesis, though. |
| 11:48 |
: Yes. Absolutely.
|
| 11:48 |
: He’s up to a 1.20 xFIP now though.
|
| 11:48 |
: Yes, definitely, Burt.
|
| 11:48 |
Mike Epps teaming up with the Cavs makes me anticipate the basketball regular season |
| 11:49 |
: I don’t know what this means^
|
| 11:49 |
: As does the new projection system that 538 rolled out. I’m giddy about it, and I’m barely paying attention to basketball right now.
|
| 11:49 |
: (I don’t get the reference either, but I AM excited for basketball this year).
|
| 11:49 |
When the scoring environment is higher, doesn’t that make runs/win also higher |
| 11:49 |
: Yes.
|
| 11:49 |
Regular season record definitely isn’t 31. Last week during Scherzer’s no-no, he K’d 17 Mets and Mets staff K’d 18 Nats |
| 11:49 |
: Well OK then.
|
| 11:50 |
Paul, in a previous chat, you shared a link showing Kershaw’s sheer incredibleness. No there should be no debate that Kershaw is among the best . http://www.fangraphs.com/le… |
| 11:50 |
Do we use a static RAR/WAR? Or does it move with the run environment? |
| 11:51 |
: RAR divided by R/W = WAR, always. R/W changes with environment
|
| 11:51 |
Paul, when did you grow a beard? Pre-marriage, the dating game stopped me. Post-marriage, it’s the job. How did you handle the middle phase–the dilapidated period? Were you working in an office? |
| 11:51 |
: I mean, for now, The+Dude, but he will regress later in his career and won’t end up with an ERA- that good. It’s more a fun anecdote than anything.
|
| 11:52 |
: I grew my beard while writing my master’s thesis and just never shaved it
|
| 11:52 |
: So, I had a goatee for my wedding, but I vacillated between goatee and shaved for most of my 20s. I grew mine for good when I left the Rockies. That’s five years ago now. I haven’t fully shaved since.
|
| 11:52 |
top sixth: first half-inning without a K finally |
| 11:53 |
This should absolutely be the last half inning for Kershaw, even if he breezes through it. 9th spot due up 3rd. |
| 11:53 |
: Yeah, it’s gonna be tempting to leave him in.
|
| 11:53 |
: Yeah, agreed. Hopefully the Dodgers get a runner on in front of him and make it academic.
|
| 11:54 |
Give us an interesting story from your time at the Rockies! |
| 11:54 |
: Nah, nobody wants to hear that stuff.
|
| 11:54 |
To be fair to the dude, Kershaw ranks near the top of just about any “through 27” list as well. |
| 11:54 |
They said DeGrom on deck, if he actually bats and comes back out that’s batshit insane |
| 11:55 |
: Collins said before the game that his goal was to have deGrom go 8 and Familia 1. So he’s almost certainly going to hit.
|
| 11:55 |
Umm how about no Rockies stories… |
| 11:55 |
: See?
|
| 11:55 |
Makes sense. I might take the plunge this holiday season. Pray for me. Re Mike Epps and the Cavs, a commercial came on in which LeBron and Kyrie were basically in Mad Max, and then Mike Epps randomly showed up on a vehicle and cracked a joke or two. Weirdness. |
| 11:55 |
: LOL ok
|
| 11:55 |
Cleanup hitter Murphy with a jack. Duda reaches base twice. Collins is a genius of course. |
| 11:55 |
: But of course.
|
| 11:55 |
: Except…Cuddyer.
|
| 11:56 |
By “plunge” I mean beard-growing, not marriage. The former is more complicated. |
| 11:56 |
: I recommend both
|
| 11:56 |
Dodger Stadium, Rogers Center, Kauffman. Is this the year of the modernist, symmetrical ballpark re-appreciation? A lot of the faux-retro, amusement-parky 90s ballparks are suddenly not aging great. |
| 11:57 |
: It’s almost like a lot of them were rushed into production to take advantage of the boom of taxpayer funded stadia or something.
|
| 11:57 |
: But it’s also about how you take care of them. For instance, Coors Field has held up well, because even when the ballpark was brand new, the Rockies set aside $5 million or so every year for ballpark improvements, even if said improvements were just “paint that railing again.”
|
| 11:58 |
Tell us a Rockies World Series story! ;-D |
| 11:58 |
: It was short. I hung out on the field before a game with Joe Sheehan for an hour. I had to wear a suit. The end.
|
| 11:59 |
Uh-oh… it’s the dreaded 7th for Kershaw. |
| 11:59 |
: deGrom batting! With two on!
|
| 11:59 |
Somebody call in a wellness check on MGL.. He’s (rightfully) going to go apoplectic about this decision. |
| 11:59 |
Most of the 90s ballparks are gone, right? Isn’t Coors the 3rd oldest field in the NL? |
| 11:59 |
: Brad Ausmus nods approvingly
|
| 11:59 |
How is deGrom batting??????? |
| 11:59 |
: I’d call it 90s to early 00s. But yes, Coors Field is older than every NL ballpark except Dodger and Wrigley.
|
| 12:00 |
He’s gotta be sending DeGrom out there to keep “confidence momentum” going into Game 4. |
| 12:00 |
: Oh baby, it’s midnight.
|
| 12:00 |
Chris Singleton on ESPN Radio says he’s fully on board with decision to have DeGrom bat |
| 12:00 |
I get mad about Matheny sometimes, but man do I forget how bad some other managers are. |
| 12:00 |
that bunt was perfect |
| 12:01 |
: Still tho
|
| 12:01 |
: That was super weird.
|
| 12:01 |
: I love that Kershaw isn’t backing down and just walking Granderson btw.
|
| 12:01 |
: lefty with two outs, why would he?
|
| 12:01 |
granderson makes him pay |
| 12:01 |
: Bold prediction, that.
|
| 12:02 |
You don’t really choose to pitch to Wright. |
| 12:02 |
Well Wright is on deck… |
| 12:02 |
: Yeah I get that, but he could be doing the whole pitch to you but pitch around you thing, and he isn’t.
|
| 12:03 |
: Well, maybe he is. Though I think judging by Kershaw’s reaction, he missed location on that pitch.
|
| 12:03 |
Tomorrow’s headlines are dancing on the knife’s edge right now. If the inning is extended, we get 3 more days of Kershaw-playoffs narrative. If he gets a strike here, that dies. |
| 12:03 |
This chat is ahead of my video feed…… |
| 12:03 |
: Sorry, I hate when that happens.
|
| 12:03 |
deGrom is at 100+ pitches and his high this year is 117. He isn’t pitching much longer anyway so why not send a pinch hitter up there? |
| 12:03 |
: It’s the playoffs. Normal pitch counts are out the window.
|
| 12:03 |
: OHHHHHHH, can’t believe Kershaw didn’t get that call!
|
| 12:04 |
GREAT at bat |
| 12:04 |
Yeah but he’d only do that if he preferred to face Wright. I doubt he does |
| 12:04 |
: BASEBALL
|
| 12:04 |
: Well, he’s got to now…dum dum dum.
|
| 12:04 |
: WHAT? Mattingly is taking him out????
|
| 12:05 |
So how does pulling Kershaw at this point play into tomorrow’s narrative re Kershaw’s postseason clutch? |
| 12:05 |
: I don’t care what the percentages say, I want to see Kershaw face Wright there. Unreal.
|
| 12:05 |
: Depends on what the reliever does here because human beings are bad at logic
|
| 12:05 |
And now we get to the part where a reliever’s performance determines how this start affect’s Kershaw’s narrative |
| 12:05 |
Is a fresh Baez > 113 pitches Kershaw against a RHB? |
| 12:05 |
@Jessie, only if these runners score. If Baez gets out of it, nobody remembers. |
| 12:05 |
: Maybe, but I don’t care.
|
| 12:05 |
Truth: I don’t live in my mother’s basement. Fact: I have mlb pip on my iPad while chatting on fangraphs. Question: am I cool? |
| 12:06 |
He is not trusted with the game on the line in the playoffs |
| 12:06 |
: Sounds cool to me, but I am not the person you want to judge this
|
| 12:06 |
Wright saw the ball on Kershaw the best on the team today |
| 12:06 |
That’s a terrible decision. |
| 12:06 |
Absolutely yes, Jessie. |
| 12:06 |
You’re on a fangraphs chat on Friday night. You’re not cool. Sorry. |
| 12:07 |
If you are going to pull Kershaw, Jansen absolutely should be the guy here. But there might be save later I guess! |
| 12:07 |
: Preach
|
| 12:07 |
| 12:08 |
It’s technically Saturday morning for me now, so Friday night denigrations are totally invalid |
| 12:08 |
So-called “advanced stats” are too hard to understand and based on suspect logic. Now let me explain why its Kershaw’s fault if guys score after he’s been pulled from the game. |
| 12:08 |
Agree with Paul. You don’t pull a possible 3 time (including this year) CY Young award winner and the most dominant pitcher in the game over the past few years because a righty is coming up. This is the time your money pitcher makes his money. |
| 12:08 |
I’m a happily married, gainfully-employed thirty-something. And my wife went to sleep. This is what I choose to do. Who cares about “cool” as an adult? |
| 12:09 |
: This is me but I am not in my thirties
|
| 12:09 |
: That is what my link was saying.
|
| 12:09 |
: Take this pitch.
|
| 12:10 |
: Wright did him a favor.
|
| 12:10 |
Can we all agree that this has been an awesome game?? |
| 12:10 |
: So far.
|
| 12:10 |
The chances of a bigger spot coming up is remote. Jansen should be in there. These guys can’t shut regular season mode/mindset off. Just terrible. |
| 12:11 |
: Nauseating if you’re a Dodgers fan.
|
| 12:11 |
Love it |
| 12:11 |
Wooooooooooooo |
| 12:11 |
The Captain delivers!!!! |
| 12:11 |
Groundhog saw his shadow. 12 more months of Kershaw-can’t-pitch-in-October stories. |
| 12:11 |
SEE KERSHAW AIN’T A CLUTCH PLAYOFF PITCHER |
| 12:11 |
“Nauseating if you’re a Dodgers fan.” Luckily, I am a Giants fan. 😉 |
| 12:11 |
CAPTAIN WRIGHT! |
| 12:11 |
Welp, Kershaw is now officially totally worthless |
| 12:12 |
If you own the Dodgers do you fire Mattingly tomorrow for this? |
| 12:12 |
: No, I don’t. But if they lose the series, ya.
|
| 12:12 |
: I mean, the other manager let deGrom hit two batters ago
|
| 12:13 |
Wait why would you fire Mattingly? It was indefensible to pull Kershaw he had just walked the bases loaded |
| 12:13 |
: If I’m going to lose, I want it to be with Clayton Kershaw. Not Pedro Baez.
|
| 12:13 |
leave DeGrom in now or go to Reed? |
| 12:14 |
: Again, Collins said he wanted 8 from deGrom. So it’ll be deGrom.
|
| 12:14 |
: I think that’s a fine thought, Paul, but doesn’t rise to fireable
|
| 12:14 |
Because pulling Kershaw for anyone other than Jansen with the game on the line is a fire-able offense. |
| 12:14 |
: Although I have been watching Ausmus for two years so my sensitivity to bad managing is really dulled
|
| 12:15 |
People are joking but I actually now seriously don’t think Kershaw is the same guy in the postseason. I think he puts extra pressure on himself. I think he wears himself out too fast, whereas in the reg. season he can pace himself for 8 innings. Mattingly doesn’t adjust, leaves him in too long. |
| 12:15 |
: I mean, he struck out 11.
|
| 12:15 |
: He pitched really well
|
| 12:15 |
My mom just said she wasn’t sure how to pronounce Yoenis. I pronounced it very carefully for her. She said “uh, like ‘your anus?'” I said “no” and pronounced it very carefully again, and then I said “oh wait, yeah, pretty much.” (I do love how phonetic Spanish is though.) |
| 12:15 |
: The more you know…
|
| 12:16 |
ESPN’s old pronunciation guides on their site for Latin players were hilarious. Always clearly written by some 22 year old intern from Boston who had never met anyone that spoke Spanish. |
| 12:16 |
Fire Mattingly, hire the whole Fangraphs website |
| 12:17 |
: Don’t underrate the fact that Friedman and Co likely want their own guy in the managers chair, and this will be the perfect excuse to get him.
|
| 12:17 |
So, Neil, you’re a Tigs fan? From the metro-Detroit area? |
| 12:17 |
And he walked 4. He struck out more than normal early in the game, was overexerting himself, was worn out by the seventh. It just can’t be luck each time. |
| 12:18 |
: Well we’ll never know because Mattingly took him out at the worst time.
|
| 12:18 |
wait when did Lagares come into the game |
| 12:19 |
: At the start of the inning.
|
| 12:19 |
Greinke as player-manager for Dodgers next season? Crazy enough to try? |
| 12:19 |
: Definitely not crazy enough to try.
|
| 12:20 |
How would that work if he took himself out of the game? |
| 12:20 |
: I’m guessing he’d have to turn that responsibility over to his bench coach?
|
| 12:21 |
Would he be allowed to have a cell phone to call the bullpen to get someone warming up? |
| 12:22 |
: Haha. Well, the manager never really calls the bullpen himself, anyway.
|
| 12:22 |
Yes but Greinke couldn’t play DraftKings, he’d know too much inside information about himself lol |
| 12:23 |
: Not sure we’re going to have to worry about Draft Kings for much longer, anyway.
|
| 12:23 |
: CIL froze everything, but to answer the question from a while back. Grew up in Toledo, live outside Lansing now
|
| 12:23 |
Have Carl Crawford handle managing duties when Greinke is on the mound since he spends most of the season hanging out in the dugout anyways. |
| 12:23 |
: Oh snap.
|
| 12:23 |
: I thought you lived in North Carolina?
|
| 12:23 |
: I moved in February
|
| 12:24 |
Need to look to the US Constitution for ideas for player managers, with checks and balances. Like, pitching player manager can change defense, defense can change hitting, hitting can change pitching. |
| 12:24 |
: It’s all in the Constitution.
|
| 12:24 |
: I knew that!
|
| 12:24 |
: I like this idea. Stealing it.
|
| 12:24 |
In a FG chat earlie today. Question of a 1B coach having a stopwatch came up. Argument against was devices on the field and where you draw the line on tech on the field. Fine, I guess. But what’s the fear? |
| 12:25 |
: Well I suppose technically you could be tricking out a stopwatch to send and receive texts, etc.
|
| 12:25 |
The fact that we have physical, hard-wired phones in the dugout is one of those things that would be completely bizarre and inexplicable if we weren’t so used to it. |
| 12:25 |
: True.
|
| 12:25 |
Articles of Confederation contains little-known section outlining which transgressions you get plunked for. |
| 12:26 |
: Interesting.
|
| 12:26 |
Did… Yost I think it was? .. get any fines or anything for his Apple Watch? |
| 12:26 |
Is it fair to say DeGrom outpitched Kershaw at this point in the game? |
| 12:26 |
: MLB reminded him about the rules, but he assured that it wasn’t connected to a phone because his phone wasnt with him
|
| 12:26 |
Who really gives a crap if somebody sends texts to the field anyway? I mean we aren’t watching a game in a maximum security prison here. |
| 12:27 |
: Signs and stuff
|
| 12:27 |
Okay, so we can debate Kershaw all we want, but DeGrom clearly out pitched him |
| 12:28 |
: Yeah, he did. deGrom was money tonight.
|
| 12:28 |
Is it possible to call the bullpen from outside the park? Or are the phones closed circuit? |
| 12:28 |
: Almost positive they’re closed circuit.
|
| 12:28 |
Well, we don’t want Gibbons getting texts from the Man in White in CF at Rogers Centre with signs. ;-p |
| 12:28 |
Did Collins leave DeGrom on too long- got thru the inning but loaded some counts. |
| 12:29 |
: Nah, he was fine.
|
| 12:29 |
Seems awfully paranoid and unrealistic in the world of mass connectivity and ubiquitous, unobstrisuve high-powered cameras |
| 12:29 |
: I don’t disagree with you, I’m just playing devil’s advocate.
|
| 12:29 |
: On the other hand, I could also say this – why do we need the first base coach to time guys with a stopwatch?
|
| 12:29 |
: The whole idea is no tech on the field or in the dugout. Probably fine to retire the rules, but they are the rules
|
| 12:30 |
: It’s their job to time the pitcher!
|
| 12:30 |
: shrug. i think the players can tell on their own.
|
| 12:30 |
oh, timing the pitcher makes more sense… |
| 12:30 |
Doesn’t StatCast do a better job than a stopwatch? =p |
| 12:31 |
Lost in the Donnie is a tool/Kershaw choked/DeGrom is amazing chatter, is how poor the Dodgers offense has been tonight. Looks like they don’t really care out there. |
| 12:31 |
: Well, I don’t know, they mounted a few rallies, but they were all toward the bottom of the lineup, and they just couldnt get it done.
|
| 12:31 |
Guys having radios in their helmets in football sucks. Preventing baseball from going in that direction is great. Also looking forward to seeing Joe Girardi’s trapper keeper in Cooperstown in 20 years. |
| 12:32 |
: I tend to agree. We go ape when the helmet radios don’t work, but I don’t see why they need them to begin with.
|
| 12:32 |
Mets are the ones who swung-and-missed-by-a-foot like 15 times in the early innings, and here we are |
| 12:32 |
Francona/Antonetti had conversations when Antonetti was sitting front row at Fenway, who knows what they were talking about. |
| 12:33 |
: Probably what steakhouse to go to after the game.
|
| 12:33 |
Nothing about a baseball coaching staff makes sense. Why are they in uniforms? Why do we let Don Mattingly make day to day operational decisions for a multi-billion dollar corporation? |
| 12:33 |
I think Mets’ pitching is as much responsible for the Dodgers’ lack of offence tonight as some failing of the Dodgers. The Dodgers succeed when their pitching is better than the opposition’s, and fail when it is not. |
| 12:33 |
: I mean, don’t most teams?
|
| 12:34 |
All teams do. |
| 12:35 |
: yeah thats what i’m saying
|
| 12:35 |
We need helmets to communicate the BRILLIANT CHESS-LIKE PLAYS even tho majority of actual NFL players seem persistently befuddled by complexity of offensives they’re expected to run. |
| 12:35 |
So if that was Harvey out there tonight, in what inning would Boras have run onto the field in a Terry Collins disguise and signal for a pitching change on his own? |
| 12:35 |
Full immersion is the long-term goal! (Though, if that’s true, it’s absurd we don’t watch football in All-22 (and I don’t even like football)). |
| 12:35 |
That’s like saying everyone tall, short or somewhere in between |
| 12:35 |
: well, except for babies, and midgets. they’re super short.
|
| 12:35 |
What if a team had no manager? All decisions are voted on the players. Democracy! |
| 12:36 |
: “Raise your hand if Puig should pinch hit here!”
|
| 12:36 |
: I like this line of thinking. Could have committees
|
| 12:36 |
Football is complicated – just look at college where they hold up that cardboard sign with 4 pictures on it to call plays! |
| 12:36 |
It would take too long. One player would take control and order everything |
| 12:37 |
: OK, time to see if batting the kid third was justifiable, or a total overreaction by Mattingly.
|
| 12:37 |
Run team as anarcho-syndicalist commune, with each player assuming executive authority for an inning at a time on a rotating basis. |
| 12:37 |
: I like this idea.
|
| 12:37 |
What about direct democracy? Fans vote. Or more likely, people with season tickets. |
| 12:37 |
: That’s take too long.
|
| 12:38 |
: Nice idea, but too cumbersome
|
| 12:38 |
: And could be hacked. Hacked I tell you!
|
| 12:38 |
Having a committee of the starting pitchers not playing that day make the relief pitcher decisions is actually kind of a compelling idea, or would be if there were an odd number of them to break ties |
| 12:38 |
: By rogue Marlins fans!
|
| 12:38 |
: This is my next THT article, Paul
|
| 12:38 |
: Sweet
|
| 12:38 |
: Wow Seager really knocked the crap out of that one.
|
| 12:38 |
If it was fan vote, KC players would be the only ones playing |
| 12:39 |
Why not just hire competent managers |
| 12:39 |
: Now you’re just talking crazy talk.
|
| 12:39 |
You know, if you eliminate 2001, Randy Johnson was also fairly poor in the postseason. Must not have been clutch. |
| 12:40 |
: Is that true???
|
| 12:40 |
What if teams set up prediction markets, where people bet on whether or not a decision will increase win expectancy, and the role of the manager is to simply make the change if the odds reach a certain threshold. |
| 12:40 |
: I like where your head is at, but that’s not entirely true, sorry.
|
| 12:41 |
or offer hot dogs for each vote |
| 12:41 |
: I like hot dogs.
|
| 12:41 |
: When it was $1 Hot Dog Night at Coors Field, I would grab a stack of the $1 hot dog coupons and eat like 5 hot dogs on my way to the car. In a related story, I’m overweight.
|
| 12:42 |
Larry King got replaced by some blonde in the front row. |
| 12:42 |
: Not that you were staring at Larry King for 7 innings or anything…
|
| 12:42 |
The idea of people betting on managerial decisions in real time seems crazy but its not really that much crazier than DraftKings |
| 12:42 |
: Yes but that’s why Draft Kings is rolling in money/valuations right now.
|
| 12:42 |
Beer would get more votes. |
| 12:43 |
: I dont know…little kids would want to vote, and they can’t drink beer.
|
| 12:43 |
Dude he’s in every right handed hitter shot! |
| 12:43 |
: if Turner ties it, everyone rush to Mets Twitter
|
| 12:43 |
: I mean, so? I’m watching the game, not Larry King.
|
| 12:45 |
: CiL still having problems.
|
| 12:45 |
What does the fangraphs collective think of Ausmus as a manager. Not a fan. But I fear I’m scapegoating. But I do think he’s a bit too paint-by-number–like a Matt Williams lite. |
| 12:45 |
: Ha, come on man, Neil is in a good mood.
|
| 12:46 |
: He is incompetent.
|
| 12:46 |
: The only difference between Ausmus and Williams is that Ausmus doesnt have Papelbon on his team.
|
| 12:46 |
: Iglesias tried to fight McCann.
|
| 12:46 |
When I was in college, Pizza Hut had this deal where you had to take a long-ass phone survey and you’d get a code for a $2 medium. After a couple of tries, I cracked the code so i never had to take the survey and just chained $2 mediums together for months across locations. In related news, I’m overweight. |
| 12:46 |
: Now that’s a hell of a story. Way better than mine.
|
| 12:47 |
In the Cubs broadcast TBS said the team that wins game 1 in a DS wins 73% of the time in this broadcast it’s down to 72% |
| 12:47 |
: They’re evolving!
|
| 12:47 |
I want to see this game tied. More entertaining. (Just as long as it ends quickly afterwards.) |
| 12:47 |
What if the drunkest fan made the decisions? |
| 12:47 |
: I like where this is going.
|
| 12:48 |
: I just decided which player I would want to deliver my baby, ala Posey. Max Scherzer. Bet my wife would go for it.
|
| 12:48 |
72.5% we’ll call it a draw |
| 12:48 |
No no no. Familia end this thing |
| 12:49 |
: The New Yorkers want to go to bed, to rest their sleepy heads.
|
| 12:49 |
So do Coloradians |
| 12:50 |
: I think it’s just Coloradans.
|
| 12:50 |
My mom wants to know why your wife would go for Scherzer, Neil. |
| 12:50 |
: Because Neil loves Max Scherzer.
|
| 12:50 |
: Neil was in denial for a whole year about the Tigers re-signing him.
|
| 12:50 |
Which player would you LEAST trust to deliver a baby? I want to say Steve Pearce but can’t articulate why exactly. |
| 12:51 |
: Right now? Prob Hanley Ramirez. Somehow his helmet would fall off his head and the noise of it clanging on the floor would scare my wife.
|
| 12:51 |
Hanley Ramirez, obviously. |
| 12:51 |
: See, Phil knows what’s up.
|
| 12:51 |
Hanley Ramirez would miss the baby when it came out. |
| 12:51 |
How is that answer not Hanley Ramirez? |
| 12:52 |
: These f’n guys.
|
| 12:52 |
Oh! Least, Cuddyer |
| 12:52 |
Puig? Papelbon? Lawrie? |
| 12:52 |
Maybe Jeter |
| 12:52 |
Yordano Ventura |
| 12:52 |
Brian Wilson would be the worst obgyn in baseball |
| 12:52 |
jon papelbon |
| 12:52 |
Tanaka. I don’t want his split fingers anywhere near my wife. (I’m so sorry for this) |
| 12:52 |
Yasiel Puig. |
| 12:52 |
Retired player? Wouldn’t want Doc Gooden to deliver a baby. Did you know he wans’t a real doc? |
| 12:52 |
: Hahahahahaha. Just as long as Dr. Dre is a real doctor, I think we’re all safe.
|
| 12:53 |
: A lot of your answers I can’t post right now, but they’re funny.
|
| 12:53 |
: I’m laughing on the inside.
|
| 12:53 |
Doc Halladay? |
| 12:54 |
Coloradians? If that’s seriously what they call themselves, they should be expelled from the union. |
| 12:54 |
Why are there purple clouds full of athletes surrounding that poor jogging woman? |
| 12:54 |
: I was very confused until I realized you meant a commercial.
|
| 12:54 |
Arent Coloradians the things that determine if you can use the force? |
| 12:54 |
: Ha!
|
| 12:55 |
: Good time for CiL to freeze.
|
| 12:55 |
: We’re just talking about who you would LEAST like to deliver your baby. You know, just some normal baseball talk.
|
| 12:55 |
: Not weird at all.
|
| 12:55 |
: Max is very bright, but also has a good energy, like he could talk you through it if things got rough
|
| 12:56 |
Save notgraphs! |
| 12:56 |
: Hands down, the worst choice is Joe Nathan.
|
| 12:56 |
In this game, it’s definitely Puig. Or Duda. |
| 12:56 |
LA FAMIA LOOKS NASSSSTY |
| 12:56 |
Apparently Sam Fuld is an Eagle Scout so he has rudimentary medical knowledge |
| 12:57 |
: Ethier – https://www.youtube.com/wat…
|
| 12:57 |
: My wife would probably sign off on Sam Fuld too.
|
| 12:57 |
: I’m an Eagle Scout, and you wouldn’t want me delivering a baby.
|
| 12:57 |
Sam Fuld would be an Eagle Scout |
| 12:57 |
Joc, game tying homer. I feel it. |
| 12:57 |
: Well, we need a baserunner first.
|
| 12:58 |
: Greinke would deliver your baby perfectly and then tell you how ugly it was
|
| 12:58 |
I want LA to load the bases and then lose |
| 12:59 |
NICE PLAY |
| 12:59 |
I just want LA to lose, Sal. |
| 12:59 |
: Last chance, and it’s the guy who gets lots of Ks against the guy who Ks a lot. I think this might be advantage Mets, but don’t quote me.
|
| 1:00 |
My main rooting interest in this game is baseball and sleep |
| 1:00 |
Wait Murphy is playing 1st? Doubleswitch? (and it’s paying off?) |
| 1:00 |
why do I feel like Peterson is just thinking about hardboiled eggs right now |
| 1:00 |
: You’re projecting.
|
| 1:01 |
9 years is a long time – playoff baseball when your team is involved is super stressful!!! |
| 1:01 |
Joc’s stance is totally unrecognizable from what it was in the first half. |
| 1:01 |
Why no Puig? |
| 1:01 |
: Because Familia is a righty.
|
| 1:02 |
: Full. Count.
|
| 1:02 |
: Camera angle was bad but kinda seemed like he didn’t stop
|
| 1:03 |
: And now, we’ll bring Jeff Sullivan back for another 7 hour chat
|
| 1:03 |
: Well there it is. As an added bonus, that play can give you some comfort that the Mets aren’t going to LOLMETS this series, because if there was ever a time for that to rear its ugly head, it’s a big boy reliever trying to sprint to first base.
|
| 1:04 |
: Can you imagine if he tripped and fell, eating the ball, and Pederson reaching there, with Grandal on deck? Eep.
|
| 1:04 |
Silly Paul, LOLMETS won’t come into effect until the Mets have a lead so that it hurts more |
| 1:04 |
: Well, they had the lead there!
|
| 1:05 |
: In any case, I think we’re going to put a bow on this one. Thanks for hanging out, as always. You guys and gals are the best. We won’t be chatting the rest of the weekend, but we’ll probably be on Twitter. Get at us there.
Have a good night! |
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
August Fagerstrom- great name, but can he type?