2015 NL Wild Card Live Blog
| 5:01 |
: Hello friends
|
| 5:02 |
: Welcome to liveblog!
|
| 5:02 |
: Joining me at some point will be Carson, I bet
|
| 5:03 |
: For whatever it’s worth, this does not operate like a usual Q&A chat. There will be way too many people in here for us to put most comments though. Also I’m watching on MLB.tv which is always delayed by like 30 minutes so the chat will probably also be delayed in turn!
|
| 5:03 |
Hello Jeff, are you going to constantly yell about the managers not using their relievers? |
| 5:03 |
: I get bored of managerial criticism in the playoffs. As far as I’m concerned it’s mostly on the players to execute
|
| 5:03 |
Cal looks a bit thinner than usual |
| 5:03 |
: Nationals job stress
|
| 5:04 |
: 0
|
| 5:04 |
: 0
|
| 5:04 |
: Pirates!
|
| 5:05 |
Do you get to avoid Ernie Johnson on mlb.tv? |
| 5:05 |
: I sure do not!
|
| 5:05 |
Why wasn’t negative runs a choice? |
| 5:05 |
: Ran out of room
|
| 5:06 |
if you’re in the usa, how can you watch on mlb.tv? |
| 5:06 |
: It’s complicated!
|
| 5:06 |
How many outs does Clint give away to the Cubs tonight? |
| 5:06 |
: 70% of me expects Harrison to bunt in the bottom of the first
|
| 5:07 |
Yankee fan here, sensitive time for me. But I swear if I hear one comment out of anybody reminding me that Cole was drafted by the Yankees and didn’t sign…..I may lose it |
| 5:07 |
: They also drafted Mark Prior!
|
| 5:07 |
I still can’t believe they are letting you and Carson provide content unsupervised. |
| 5:07 |
: Hello. Sorry. I searched all the PBS channels and couldn’t find the game.
|
| 5:07 |
: Wait until we load up the webcams
|
| 5:08 |
: Jeff, hello.
|
| 5:09 |
: Carson, hi
|
| 5:09 |
: Fowler with an out-of-his-shoes swing
|
| 5:10 |
: Wonder how many center fielders make a catch on that sinking liner. Not easy, but McCutchen pulled up qiuck
|
| 5:10 |
: Jeff, please correct me if I’m wrong, but we’re expecting that Cole might have some success on the inside corner against LHBs, yes? With Nelson umping, I mean.
|
| 5:10 |
: Could get one or two extra strikes. Not that we’ll notice with this camera angle
|
| 5:11 |
This camera angle sucks |
| 5:11 |
: PNC has the best camera angle in baseball so why not mess it up for the playoffs?
|
| 5:11 |
What is the narrative if Jake gets roughed up early? |
| 5:11 |
: Right.
|
| 5:11 |
: Pittsburgh crowd or innings-related fatigue
|
| 5:12 |
Any obvious x factors tonight for either team? |
| 5:12 |
: The team that misses fewer mistakes by the good pitcher wins
|
| 5:12 |
Thoughts on the Cubs defense? |
| 5:13 |
: With regard to mistakes, August Fagerstrom did a good job this morning documenting how Keuchel makes, like, zero of them.
|
| 5:13 |
: Arrieta down the stretch generated basically only strikeouts and grounders so they get to take some outfield liberties
|
| 5:13 |
Game over, right? Or does Arrieta have to actually pitch? |
| 5:14 |
: Polling has Cole’s runs-allowed total centered around 2
|
| 5:14 |
: Cubs favored nearly 2-to-1
|
| 5:15 |
: Sean Rodriguez didn’t literally drop that throw to first base so already the defense is paying off for Pittsburgh
|
| 5:16 |
: Anthony Rizzo: only a 15.0% K rate this year.
|
| 5:16 |
Sounds like there are a lot of cubs fans there |
| 5:16 |
Am I the only one that likes the decision to start Sean Rodriguez? |
| 5:16 |
: They’re never not around
|
| 5:16 |
: Presumably Clint Hurdle likes it, too!
|
| 5:16 |
: Cubs fans are like parsley in the American salad bar
|
| 5:16 |
: And Sean Rodriguez. So no fewer than three people.
|
| 5:17 |
: Defense!
|
| 5:17 |
You were saying? |
| 5:17 |
: Whoopsadoodle
|
| 5:17 |
: Pedro Alvarez would’ve dropped that worse
|
| 5:17 |
: And we get to the delicious Italian meat of the order, Tommy La Stella
|
| 5:17 |
: Or, I guess that started with Anthony Rizzo.
|
| 5:17 |
It’s so funny to me that Tommy La Stella is batting 5th tonight |
| 5:18 |
He’s dedicating this at bat to you Carson |
| 5:18 |
: No one hasn’t *not* substantiated that.
|
| 5:18 |
: La Stella strikes out looking, like I assume he does 70% of the time
|
| 5:18 |
La Stella was setting up Cole for an at-bat later in the game!! |
| 5:19 |
: Love the way La Stella forced Cole to throw three pitches there.
|
| 5:19 |
: I was wrong. That was La Stella’s second called strikeout of the season
|
| 5:19 |
: Where the season was 75 plate appearances, and that plate appearance
|
| 5:20 |
How do the Cardinals compete with these two teams going forward? Their farm system is pretty bad, but they’ve got tens of millions of dollars available to spend. |
| 5:20 |
: How are you watching this, Sullivan? I assume you don’t have cable.
|
| 5:20 |
: The Cardinals’ farm system doesn’t matter. They’ll just polish a pile of garbage into a three-win starting pitcher
|
| 5:20 |
: MLB.tv, my friend
|
| 5:21 |
: This way the only commercials I see are for MLB.tv
|
| 5:21 |
Does tonight’s winner eventually reach the World Series? |
| 5:21 |
: Oh. I attempted to acquire the Postseason package and was informed there was a system error.
|
| 5:21 |
: I assume Jays/Dodgers but hoping Jays/Cubs
|
| 5:22 |
Which radio station should I be listening to on Gameday Audio? Cubs or Pirates? |
| 5:22 |
: Is there no way to get Kasper/Deshaies? Are they not working the game at all?
|
| 5:23 |
: 25% of Arrieta’s pitches tonight are for strikes three.
|
| 5:23 |
If you had asked me “how many of the starters in this game are hitting .300” beforehand, it might have taken me a few guesses to get to “0” |
| 5:24 |
Swinging at the first pitch against Arrieta…. doens’t seem smart. |
| 5:24 |
: Unfortunately, all the other pitches are difficult, too.
|
| 5:25 |
Can you find out how the chat feels about people saying “[name of pitcher] is DEALing”? |
| 5:25 |
: Took a few minutes to welcome my girlfriend back home and Arrieta already has two outs and two strikes
|
| 5:25 |
: #scripted
|
| 5:26 |
: Not a problem.
|
| 5:26 |
: A hit! Best Pirates game against Arrieta of the season
|
| 5:27 |
: Sure enough, three first-pitch fastballs so far from Arrieta
|
| 5:27 |
: Jeff, what would Arrieta produce in terms of run prevention if he threw only his cutter all the time?
|
| 5:27 |
does it usually only take you “a few minutes” to welcome your girlfriend home? |
| 5:27 |
: A non-fastball!
|
| 5:27 |
: Let’s go with a 3.50 FIP?
|
| 5:28 |
: It’s one of the least probable pitches any starter throws in the league. Roughly, what?, 90-92 with that gloveside break?
|
| 5:29 |
: deGrom and Harvey have something a little like that
|
| 5:29 |
: Challenge for everyone! Find the address in either Chicago or Pittsburgh with the highest Walk Score.
|
| 5:30 |
: But those with similar pitches don’t have similar command of it
|
| 5:30 |
: (I don’t know the answer, but I DO like passing too much of my day researching Walk Scores.)
|
| 5:30 |
WTF is a Walk Score? |
| 5:30 |
| 5:31 |
: The header picture on walkscore.com is the Portland west waterfront!
|
| 5:31 |
Pirates fan: I feel like cole often gives up early runs then settles in. any truth to that, or observation bias? |
| 5:31 |
801 N Wabash Ave, Chicago IL, 60611 |
| 5:31 |
: .675 OPS first time through the order, .557 second time
|
| 5:31 |
Its 100 |
| 5:31 |
: It is! Impressive.
|
| 5:32 |
I sincerely wish they would allow Cistulli to join the broadcast booth. |
| 5:32 |
: You are the only person!
|
| 5:32 |
: Cole this year gave up 18 first-inning runs. No other inning with more than 11
|
| 5:32 |
: Matt Garza wants to put that play in the Hall of Fame
|
| 5:33 |
: Cole’s phone buzzes. “how the shit did you do that”
|
| 5:33 |
Are there unlimited challenged in the Post Season? |
| 5:33 |
: Believe it’s the normal amount.
|
| 5:34 |
Which would you rather encounter: an actual pirate, or an actual bear cub? |
| 5:34 |
: How young is the bear cub?
|
| 5:34 |
: I take the bear up until about 6 – 10 months
|
| 5:34 |
: How young is the pirate?
|
| 5:35 |
How near is its mother? |
| 5:35 |
: I assume you can only be a pirate by choice
|
| 5:35 |
: If you’re old enough to choose to be a pirate, you’re old enough to be dangerous
|
| 5:35 |
: If both your parent are pirates, Jeff, you’re going to be a pirate.
|
| 5:35 |
more pertinent, black bear or brown bear? |
| 5:35 |
: let me check the Punnett squares
|
| 5:35 |
: Also a relevant distinction.
|
| 5:36 |
Imagine a dad being disappointed when his son doesnt wanna follow the family business of being a pirate |
| 5:37 |
: “I just always saw myself as a CPA, dad.”
|
| 5:37 |
: A pirate is essentially a misbehaving sailor
|
| 5:37 |
shame, so many young people today get shoehorned into piracy because that’s all they knew at home |
| 5:37 |
: This is why I always figured the Pirates and the Mariners should be league rivals
|
| 5:38 |
: Mariners are probably gross in their own way. Also, they’re always rhyming.
|
| 5:38 |
We have intergenerational determinism for Pirates as a subgroup for sure |
| 5:39 |
Carson, should I mute the game to listen to the latest edition of Fangraphs Audio with lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel? |
| 5:39 |
: Roughly the same length.
|
| 5:39 |
“I spent all these years plundering so YOU could get a college education!” |
| 5:39 |
: Big miss with that curveball. Montero wanted it in the dirt
|
| 5:39 |
: And he expressed as much with his body language!
|
| 5:40 |
: Without looking, is that a swing and miss pitch for Arrieta, Jeff? The curve?
|
| 5:40 |
: Fans cheering for a Francisco Cervelli time out
|
| 5:41 |
: Carson: I would assume it’s not a huge swing-and-miss pitch? Curveballs seldom are
|
| 5:42 |
: There’s a curveball swing and miss
|
| 5:42 |
:
|
| 5:43 |
Hi Carson. I’m the captain of my company’s terrible coed softball team, and this year I decided to end all of our weekly emails with a Cioran aphorism from The Trouble With Being Born (avoiding the suicide ones of course). We finished 1-10 on the year. I attribute the win to Cioran effect. Thank you for introducing me to him. |
| 5:43 |
: I was wrong. Arrieta’s curveball is a swing-and-miss pitch! All of his pitches are swing-and-miss pitches
|
| 5:44 |
: Nick, that’s everything I want from a world.
|
| 5:44 |
Jeff, I was pleasantly surprised by Jessica Mendoza last night. That’s the first time I heard her on a game and though she waited to inject her comments at the right time and they were insightful. Your thoughts? |
| 5:45 |
: I’m not a professional broadcast critic, so don’t go to me for expert input, but I liked last night’s booth overall. Obviously Archer was solid, but Mendoza timed her insights well and I thought fit in rather seamlessly.
|
| 5:46 |
: And what was most satisfying is how no member of the public resorted to foul or cruel language regarding the presence of a woman in a broadcast booth.
|
| 5:46 |
: I don’t know if the average person “buys” her as someone who knows the game well enough to discuss it, but if they don’t, that’s on them. She’s going to be hugely important for the next wave of women having a successful foundation in the industry
|
| 5:46 |
You’re missing Chevrolet throwing eggs at people though |
| 5:47 |
: I haven’t seen a commercial in like seven months. Far fewer people in my life telling me to purchase boner drugs
|
| 5:47 |
: I’m sure plenty of commenters here would be willing to tell you to purchase boner drugs, Sullivan.
|
| 5:47 |
: I wonder what percent of Cole wants to drill Arrieta in the neck right now
|
| 5:47 |
: I guess not 50+ %
|
| 5:48 |
I’m getting Viagra ads with excessive amounts of eye contact. |
| 5:48 |
: Who has time to use a boner during the playoffs
|
| 5:48 |
Last night’s game had the highest ESPN baseball viewership in over 10 years |
| 5:48 |
: Now imagine if they got this one
|
| 5:49 |
What is your best guess on how many WAR Maddon was worth this year? |
| 5:49 |
: 0 to 1
|
| 5:49 |
: Dexter Fowler hitting a ball to Gregory Polanco. Perhaps the two lankiest current ballplayers.
|
| 5:50 |
: Plus maybe Jason Heyward and/or Christian Yelich.
|
| 5:50 |
: Kyle Schwarber: not lanky.
|
| 5:50 |
: Oh my.
|
| 5:50 |
: Anyone on a delay is about to see something…
|
| 5:51 |
: Holy heavens
|
| 5:51 |
the suspense! |
| 5:51 |
Kyle Schwarber: Strong |
| 5:51 |
Well, that ball was hit reasonably well |
| 5:51 |
: That was not a very good pitch!
|
| 5:52 |
: Dexter Fowler was pretty sure about the final destination of that batted ball.
|
| 5:52 |
: Pirates!
|
| 5:52 |
Guesses on how far that traveled? |
| 5:52 |
: 450?
|
| 5:53 |
: The real numbers are always more underwhelming than the guesses. I’ll go 410
|
| 5:53 |
What would happen here if Hurdle came out and got Arrieta tossed for using pine tar? |
| 5:53 |
: This is from 30 minutes ago but it should be highly considered!
|
| 5:53 |
: Check the beard
|
| 5:53 |
I miss having the Zips/Steamer RoS projections. Is there a way to see what they would be? I use it as a true talent estimate, especially for a player with limited track record like Schwarber |
| 5:53 |
| 5:53 |
What do you think the Cubs post Arrieta plan will be tonight? |
| 5:53 |
: Not convinced they have one
|
| 5:54 |
Your guess on how many WAR Matt Williams was worth this year? |
| 5:54 |
Best guess on Matt Williams’ WAR. |
| 5:54 |
: -2
|
| 5:54 |
: Those were for you, Sullivan.
|
| 5:54 |
: I nearly made that a post!
|
| 5:54 |
: I wonder if Ray Searage can make Jake Arrieta worse
|
| 5:54 |
Statcast projects 449.83 feet, nice job cistulli |
| 5:54 |
: Snap.
|
| 5:55 |
wow, TOOTBLAN |
| 5:55 |
Ugh, a TOOTBLAN. |
| 5:55 |
: Tough play for Bryant, though. Mercer did NOT look certain about the play.
|
| 5:56 |
: That was mostly a good play by Mercer but Bryant strayed a bit too far. If that ball drops, he can still make it another 60 feet
|
| 5:56 |
Chris Sale is the league leader in lanky |
| 5:56 |
Re: lanky ballplayers: Uh, Chris Sale, people? |
| 5:56 |
: WILL THAT OPEN THE DOOR TO THE PIRATES’ ATTACK
|
| 5:57 |
: I neglected Chris Sale in consideration of MLB lank.
|
| 5:57 |
Henry Owens will lead MLB in lankiness (xLANK) by midway through next season. |
| 5:57 |
: And Henry Owens.
|
| 5:57 |
Sean Rodriguez is making first base look very hard |
| 5:58 |
: Henry Owens officially has 40 pounds on Chris Sale. They’re not even in the same galaxy of lank
|
| 5:58 |
: Perhaps he’s a plant, attempting to increase the positional adjustment on behalf of all the league’s real first basemen.
|
| 5:58 |
: Pertinent to nothing, the worst projected hitter in baseball now is Steve Baron (.220 wOBA). Jesus Sucre second-worst (.231)
|
| 5:58 |
: I’m not smart enough to know if a third-inning PH is the CORRECT decision, but it’s delightfully aggressive.
|
| 5:59 |
: Pinch-hitter in the third inning. This is awesome
|
| 5:59 |
Clint Hurdle pulling out the stops. Like the move to PH? |
| 5:59 |
: Answered pre-emptively!
|
| 5:59 |
Defensive substitution for previous innings |
| 6:00 |
: Retro-active defensive replacement?
|
| 6:00 |
: If Pedro Alvarez has the ability to shrink every ballpark, he should selectively also expand every ballpark when his team is pitching
|
| 6:00 |
: There’s roughly a third of the Pedro Alvarez experience right there
|
| 6:01 |
MARLINS GUY IS HERE! |
| 6:01 |
: And wasn’t he there yesterday?
|
| 6:01 |
: Does this guy work?
|
| 6:01 |
: Is this guy dying of something?
|
| 6:01 |
: Gerrit Cole didn’t look entirely confident in that last swing.
|
| 6:02 |
: Gregory Polanco to Dexter Fowler? Lank on lank, again?
|
| 6:02 |
: No. Strikeout, more like.
|
| 6:03 |
Jeff Sullivan |
| 6:04 |
: Can’t argue with that.
|
| 6:04 |
: The original narrative was that Arrieta would mow through the Pirates. The counter-narrative was that the Pirates were being underrated. Original narrative kicking counter-narrative’s lily ass at the moment
|
| 6:04 |
: I don’t know if lily ass is an expression but I listened to the offspring once
|
| 6:04 |
So what would an Arrieta extension look like this off-season? |
| 6:04 |
: Lily white ass?
|
| 6:04 |
: 7 years, ownership of Cubs
|
| 6:05 |
How does Marlins man always get a ticket? |
| 6:05 |
: He is the president of the country
|
| 6:05 |
: Jeff, any interest in some boner drugs?
|
| 6:06 |
: Increasingly yes
|
| 6:06 |
: La Stella!
|
| 6:06 |
Watching Jake Arrieta makes me wonder, which pitcher has the most in common with Orioles-era Arrieta and thus might be poached by a smart team? Is there anything about Arrieta that made this at all foreseeable other than his prospect pedigree? |
| 6:06 |
: The pedigree suggested the raw talent level. The rest is focus and development. This isn’t the kind of question that can be answered easily on the fly in a chat but it could be future post material!
|
| 6:07 |
Can we get a professional broadcast critic to host a chat then? |
| 6:07 |
: Media critics are annoying
|
| 6:07 |
: Blengino mentioned seeing Arrieta in the Cape Cod league and thinking that he offered more in the way of pitchability than stuff.
|
| 6:07 |
: Which, now Arrieta offers pitchability AND stuff.
|
| 6:08 |
: One note: MANY people in the queue are writing “Kevin Gausman.”
|
| 6:08 |
It’s gonna be Gausman next |
| 6:08 |
Kevin Gausmann? |
| 6:08 |
: Gausman will be next but not in an Arrieta way
|
| 6:08 |
So who is the next Cy Young contender Baltimore trades away (my money is on Gausman) |
| 6:09 |
: The Orioles are getting a pitcher rep the way the Mariners have a hitter rep
|
| 6:09 |
: Wonder how much of that is because of Arrieta alone
|
| 6:10 |
: Gausman, I think, is a name that’s constantly appearing on Sarris’s list of pitchers whose pitch-type peripherals (whiff rate, ground-ball rate) suggest greater success.
|
| 6:10 |
: Like Carlos Carrasco from alst year.
|
| 6:10 |
: *last
|
| 6:10 |
BREf says the most comparable pitchers for Arrieta at ages 25 and 26 were Bud Norris and Jason Hammel. So it looks like the Cubs have already poached one of the Arrieta-style pitchers. |
| 6:10 |
: I still think Gausman should be using his fastball differently
|
| 6:11 |
: Host challenge: discuss Kevin Gausman and Kevin Gausman only until the Pirates get a runner to second
|
| 6:11 |
By the way, thanks for doing these chats. Makes it even more difficult for me to get motivated to study for my clinical rotation exam. Baseball is just too much fun! |
| 6:11 |
: I worry for all your future patients.
|
| 6:12 |
Kevin Gausman spelled backwards is Namsuag Nivek. |
| 6:12 |
: Who, I believe, is a strike for Ajax. Right?
|
| 6:12 |
: *striker
|
| 6:13 |
Eduardo Rodriguez another promising pitcher traded by the Orioles. |
| 6:13 |
: That comment is Gausman-related, Jeff.
|
| 6:13 |
: I’ll allow it
|
| 6:13 |
Namsuag Nivek is an Indian cricketer |
| 6:13 |
: One of the things about Rodriguez is that his stuff immediately played up after he joined the Red Sox. Which is a problem for the Orioles!
|
| 6:14 |
: Game delayed for miniature hot-air balloon
|
| 6:14 |
: Maybe a prayer balloon
|
| 6:14 |
: Being piloted by miniature people, I think.
|
| 6:14 |
: Arrieta throws either (a) a 92 mph cutter or (b) 96 mph fastball.
|
| 6:16 |
: Welp, it’s been fun you guys
|
| 6:16 |
BABIP PLS |
| 6:16 |
: Arrieta doesn’t allow that either
|
| 6:17 |
You’re ditching us?! |
| 6:17 |
: No, the game is
|
| 6:17 |
Is what gameday is saying are 90 mph sliders cutters? |
| 6:17 |
: Indeed!
|
| 6:17 |
Well I guess they can’t all be great games |
| 6:17 |
: Sometimes they’re last year’s version of this game
|
| 6:18 |
: And sometimes they’re the year before’s version of this game
|
| 6:18 |
Did TBS go out for anyone else? |
| 6:18 |
: That was just the Pirates
|
| 6:19 |
man arrieta is awesome but I hate it when everyone says something is gonna happen then it does |
| 6:19 |
: If it *never* happened like that then we wouldn’t have jobs because baseball analysis would be a stupid waste of time
|
| 6:19 |
I looked at up the leverage index and it just says to watch Leverage reruns instead. |
| 6:19 |
What would need to happen in this game for it to end up on ESPN classic? |
| 6:20 |
: for that to be more than just a miniature candle lantern
|
| 6:20 |
: For Indian cricketer Namsuag Nivek to sign with the Pirates in the middle of a game and record a series of 6s.
|
| 6:20 |
: wouldn’t be their first Indian acquisition!
|
| 6:21 |
If Cole caught a comebacker in his mouth and then swallowed the ball, that might be Classic Moment. |
| 6:21 |
Kevin Gausman storms the field with a steel chair and lays the smack down |
| 6:21 |
: Question: how would the play be ruled if Cole ate the baseball?
|
| 6:21 |
: is that an out or a home run?
|
| 6:21 |
Are we ready to anoint the Cubs the team of destiny yet? |
| 6:21 |
: Would have to wait for him to digest it and evacuate his bowels.
|
| 6:21 |
: Yes, destiny is very clearly a Cubs fan
|
| 6:22 |
An actual band of pirates pillages PNC |
| 6:22 |
5 of 7 road teams have won these wild card games do you make anything of that? |
| 6:22 |
: not even a little bit
|
| 6:22 |
my roommate, a Pirates fan, keeps switching to hockey because of how dejected he is.. :/ |
| 6:22 |
: Oh my. An event!
|
| 6:22 |
: in fairness hockey is terrific!
|
| 6:22 |
Blamo! |
| 6:22 |
: aw jesus
|
| 6:23 |
: Cubs’ win expectancy presently 103%
|
| 6:23 |
: Pirates’ best hope is a fan with poison blow darts
|
| 6:23 |
Where is that over-lit Chicago location? Why is it so lit? |
| 6:23 |
: And what is it’s walk score?
|
| 6:23 |
Why is cole still in? |
| 6:24 |
: Yes, Jeff. Why?
|
| 6:24 |
: Because he hasn’t actually gotten in trouble? Just allowed homers?
|
| 6:24 |
: Cole isn’t pitching horribly and the Pirates know the homers aren’t predictive
|
| 6:25 |
: But he is just about finished
|
| 6:25 |
Wow, Cole looked he knew he made a mistake immediately. |
| 6:25 |
: Not the first bad pitch he’s ever thrown
|
| 6:25 |
That donger was jacked quite convincingly. |
| 6:25 |
: Unambiguously.
|
| 6:26 |
Jeff, if Cole eats the baseball I think runners are awarded one base. |
| 6:26 |
: Not counting the bases they advance while Cole tries to fit the baseball through his throat
|
| 6:26 |
: Are we just imagining a scenario, though, in which he EASILY swallows the ball?
|
| 6:26 |
: Because that’s how the scene is playing out in my dumb head.
|
| 6:27 |
: I don’t understand that
|
| 6:27 |
yeah, I was envisioning a Pac-Man type consumption of the ball |
| 6:27 |
: The only baseball players who could easily swallow a baseball are Mike Trout and Kyle Schwarber
|
| 6:27 |
so when would you have pulled gerritt cole? |
| 6:28 |
: This isn’t a Clint Hurdle problem game, this is a Jake Arrieta problem game
|
| 6:28 |
: Right. It requires no effort. He just has a different physiology under these circumstances.
|
| 6:28 |
: I think that got Cervelli in the hand?
|
| 6:28 |
: Indeed!
|
| 6:28 |
: At least now we get a little atmosphere for a few moments
|
| 6:29 |
Would you pull arrieta now? |
| 6:29 |
: If I were the Pirates dressed up as the Cubs, yes.
|
| 6:29 |
: Goodbye atmosphere
|
| 6:30 |
at which inning, with the game looking over-ish, do i run out of excuses to not be writing this paper? Can Carson write my paper? |
| 6:30 |
: In my experience, if you’re putting off work to watch a game, you don’t actually do the work until the game is complete
|
| 6:30 |
: It’s impossible to stop paying attention, just in case
|
| 6:31 |
at what point is this a blowout |
| 6:31 |
: 4 is cruising, 6 is blowout
|
| 6:31 |
So how do the Pirates claw their way back into this? Same wild and wacky homers as the cubbies? |
| 6:31 |
: Is the paper about the Great Gatsby? Because, if so, it’s a tale of the broken promises of the American dream. Start there.
|
| 6:31 |
: They need an extra-base hit and a run to know that it’s even possible to score
|
| 6:32 |
JD – Don’t worry about papers/or any other work related material. |
| 6:32 |
: Yeah, see? Listen to Mike.
|
| 6:33 |
: This is the best hope I can offer to Pirates fans http://www.baseball-referen…
|
| 6:33 |
Is nelsons zone somewhat reasonable so far? |
| 6:33 |
: 6-1, Kershaw over Cardinals, after 5
|
| 6:33 |
: Looks pretty good, the zone: http://www.fangraphs.com/li….
|
| 6:33 |
: A little conservative, actually, in some cases.
|
| 6:34 |
: Although, maybe a bit less conservative to Alvarez, who gets caught on a lefty strike.
|
| 6:34 |
: Literally ALL of Nelson’s called strikes until that point were at least brushing the strike zone.
|
| 6:34 |
: Interestingly, that cutter was supposed to be inside
|
| 6:35 |
: Missed away but still threw it around into the zone (ish)
|
| 6:35 |
: Of course the god damn stupid TBS camera angle makes it impossible to arrive at any reasonable conclusion in real time
|
| 6:36 |
How do we feel about this TV announcing crew? |
| 6:36 |
: Liked yesterday’s more
|
| 6:36 |
:
|
| 6:36 |
: But I don’t really listen to the announcers much, especially when I’m chatting
|
| 6:36 |
: Actually, our data shows that pitch ALSO grazed the zone (as noted above).
|
| 6:36 |
If you had the ability to put your fingers in the way of an Arrieta pitch, thinking it’d probably just graze you, would you? |
| 6:37 |
: 100% yes
|
| 6:37 |
: I am a professional baseball blogger
|
| 6:37 |
Jeff, keep up the good fight against everyone trying to make everything about the managers. |
| 6:37 |
: Swear to god October is the time when people most forget there are baseball players doing the playing
|
| 6:37 |
Why the disparity from TBS to your estimation of where that pitch is? |
| 6:37 |
: Jeff, answer this question.
|
| 6:38 |
: When in doubt, assume TBS is stupid
|
| 6:38 |
: Seems fair.
|
| 6:38 |
: Gameday had that pitch around the border. Fairy common lefty strike
|
| 6:38 |
: Fairy Common
|
| 6:38 |
: Don’t know if Gameday is properly calibrated tonight but it’s the best we’ve got
|
| 6:39 |
: By the way, Cubs’ win expectancy: 93%
|
| 6:39 |
: Down 10 points.
|
| 6:39 |
So… Kevin Gausman, am I right? |
| 6:40 |
: Here are the Brooks Baseball strike-zone plots http://www.brooksbaseball.n…
|
| 6:40 |
: the pitch to Alvarez wasn’t crazy bad
|
| 6:40 |
4 is cruising, 5 is dealing, 6 is wheeling, 7 is blowout, 8 is destroying |
| 6:41 |
: I think 6 is blowout under these circumstances
|
| 6:41 |
: runs go down in the playoffs, and all
|
| 6:41 |
: Jeff, is this your 30-30 post they’re citing without citing?
|
| 6:41 |
: Can we take a moment to appreciate that there is a player named Bastardo
|
| 6:42 |
: A lot of people wrote 30-30 posts, I think
|
| 6:42 |
I have 2 job interviews tomorrow. Will I regret turning off the game to prepare for them? |
| 6:42 |
: Don’t prepare! Be yourself
|
| 6:42 |
: Perhaps just organize all your comments around tonight’s Cubs-Pirates game.
|
| 6:42 |
: And ask questions. That’s a good strategy.
|
| 6:43 |
what are the cubs going to do for non-arrieta/lester starts? |
| 6:43 |
: Kyle Hendricks, Ace.
|
| 6:43 |
: use their bullpen
|
| 6:43 |
“I’d say my biggest weakness is blowing off interview preparation to watch baseball games.” |
| 6:43 |
: only a problem one month of the year!
|
| 6:44 |
Carson, please compare and contrast the following statements: “don’t hate me because I am beautiful.” And, “don’t hate me, because I am beautiful.” |
| 6:45 |
: waiting
|
| 6:46 |
: What you have there is an example of a coordination vs. subordination.
|
| 6:46 |
: That’s all I care to say on the matter.
|
| 6:46 |
: More wine!
|
| 6:47 |
Carson, I have recently begun attending an Ivy League school. Please rank them for me. |
| 6:48 |
: My favorite thing!
|
| 6:49 |
: Unfortunately, it’s hard to share opinions of that sort publicly without appearing to be some kind of COLOSSAL DICK. As a D+ celebrity, I don’t need that sort of trouble.
|
| 6:49 |
: At least you’re not going to Tufts.
|
| 6:49 |
: got that right
|
| 6:50 |
A hit! |
| 6:50 |
: boy is my mlb.tv increasingly behind
|
| 6:50 |
Carson, which superhero do you most identify with, and why? |
| 6:50 |
: I’m still seeing Jake Arrieta in Baltimore
|
| 6:51 |
: Is there a Thin-Wristed Communist Man?
|
| 6:51 |
: Bryant! Catching!
|
| 6:51 |
: TBS graphic showing one out instead of a baserunner
|
| 6:52 |
: I can’t tell if that was a good play or an ordinary play
|
| 6:52 |
The Fangraphs zone is wider than the zone on TBS or ESPN. |
| 6:52 |
: It was a good play, Jeff. Or at least an unusual one.
|
| 6:52 |
There’s both of those, Jeff! |
| 6:52 |
: I believe they show the rule-book zones, and we show the actual zones (or our estimates of which)
|
| 6:52 |
It was a very good play |
| 6:52 |
Yes. |
| 6:53 |
: Two hit batters. Throw him out! Make it interesting!
|
| 6:53 |
: Head-hunting breaking ball, obviously
|
| 6:53 |
: Arrieta’s in some trouble so here comes an old man
|
| 6:54 |
: Drinking game for teetotalers: drink whenever Arrieta concedes a run.
|
| 6:54 |
Nothing like a crowd of 30,000 middle-aged fans politely applauding “TURN DOWN FOR WHAT” |
| 6:54 |
How great would it be for an old man to show up every time we had stressful situations? |
| 6:55 |
: Another baserunner!
|
| 6:55 |
: That doesn’t happen for you?
|
| 6:55 |
: That’s how four footprints in the sand become just two.
|
| 6:55 |
: Uh oh. More trouble. Better bring out another old man
|
| 6:56 |
An older man? |
| 6:56 |
: It’s the playoffs. The oldest of men
|
| 6:56 |
Yep, hurt as much as I thought |
| 6:56 |
Welp |
| 6:56 |
: Oh my good god
|
| 6:57 |
: That was a long underhanded toss by Russell.
|
| 6:57 |
: I was very much hoping it would go awry
|
| 6:57 |
: Not that I have much of a rooting interest, but I would like to be rooting for a quality baseball game
|
| 6:57 |
No Country For Kevin Gausman |
| 6:57 |
: More Gausman content, Sullivan.
|
| 6:58 |
: A Gausman for All Seasons
|
| 6:58 |
: Gausman on Wire
|
| 6:58 |
The Gausman Who Wasn’t There |
| 6:59 |
Gausman of a Certain Age |
| 6:59 |
Arms and the Gausman |
| 6:59 |
: Hollow Gausman
|
| 6:59 |
Rain Gausman |
| 6:59 |
Gausman of La Mancha |
| 6:59 |
The Gausman rings twice |
| 6:59 |
: Gausman About Town
|
| 6:59 |
Gausmaneater |
| 6:59 |
Gausman On Fire |
| 6:59 |
The Gausmanchuhrian Candidate |
| 7:00 |
The Third Gausman |
| 7:00 |
Iron Gausman |
| 7:00 |
Three Gausman and a Little Baby |
| 7:01 |
: Alright. Alright. That last one ends it.
|
| 7:01 |
: win expectancy swing of the double play, by the way: -13%
|
| 7:01 |
: went from 18% to 5%
|
| 7:01 |
How many entries did you get on that tangent? Be honest. |
| 7:02 |
: At least 25 unpublished ones.
|
| 7:02 |
sometimes the camera catches arietta, and he looks like an insane person |
| 7:02 |
: it’s the slightly furrowed brow
|
| 7:03 |
: Getting closer to Classic status!
|
| 7:03 |
FISTICUFFS! |
| 7:03 |
: !!!!!
|
| 7:03 |
CLASSIC FUCKIN BRAWLS |
| 7:03 |
: an actual fight between actual cubs and actual pirates!
|
| 7:03 |
: None of the Cubs’ mothers appear to be anywhere in sight.
|
| 7:04 |
My monocle is popping out |
| 7:04 |
: every Pirates player should abandon the scrum and go after Arrieta who’s all by himself
|
| 7:04 |
: although he’s also accompanied by an old man come to think of it
|
| 7:04 |
Not quite a full-on donnybrook, more a donnystream. |
| 7:04 |
: Sean Rodriguez is Michael Morse who never took steroids
|
| 7:05 |
: That didn’t not look intentional.
|
| 7:05 |
It must be serious if Fernando Rodney woke up to participate. |
| 7:05 |
Travis Snider and Sean Rodriguez posing for prom pictures. |
| 7:06 |
That was bush league right? I’m not just being a homer, right? |
| 7:06 |
: TBS bar camera clearly showing a man flashing double birds
|
| 7:06 |
: It was certainly unwise. Unless Arrieta somehow is gone.
|
| 7:07 |
Can we agree that this is all very silly? |
| 7:07 |
: I’m prepared to do that. But not all silly things are un-entertaining.
|
| 7:08 |
As a Pirates fan, super bush league |
| 7:08 |
Yeah, bush league. But fun |
| 7:09 |
Praise Gausman, this has been a fun inning |
| 7:09 |
: PITCHER STEAL
|
| 7:09 |
: What could one say to Sean Rodriguez that would so enrage him? That he was being audited out of spite? I mean, that’s the worst thing, right?
|
| 7:10 |
that poor cooler didn’t stand a chance. because it’s a cooler. |
| 7:10 |
Rodriguez sure showed that Gatorade cooler who’s boss! |
| 7:10 |
SeanRod must like Powerade. |
| 7:10 |
|
| 7:11 |
Cistulli, what would it take for you to get upgraded to C- celebrity? A twitter scandal? Vaguely racist comments in a highly publicized interview? |
| 7:11 |
: Talent?
|
| 7:11 |
: when I did a quick google search for sean rodriguez steroids this was the first result http://www.raysindex.com/20…
|
| 7:12 |
: “Last week we learned that Sean Rodriguez had punched a locker during a verbal confrontation with a teammate on the Durham Bulls. The result was a broken right hand, a trip to the DL, and possibly the end of his season.”
|
| 7:13 |
I believe that he had just received his denial letter from Tufts. |
| 7:14 |
Why is it so bright there? Is that bar in an ER? |
| 7:14 |
As an auditor, I resent that Cistulli! We’re nice people too! |
| 7:14 |
: This year, there were two pitcher stolen bases. Kudos to Arrieta for capturing a third
|
| 7:15 |
:
 Let’s see Rodriguez try that on this cooler! |
| 7:15 |
Um. This quote from Rodriguez in that article is supposed to suggest that he was going to fight somebody. But it “So instead of me normally doing what I normally would have done in the past, which is basically just to go and do a lot of things to him, I tried to exert my energy and frustration elsewhere to try to let it go |
| 7:16 |
: As far as I can tell, Arrieta’s was the seventh-ever pitcher steal in the playoffs
|
| 7:16 |
: Cliff Lee had one in 2009. John Smoltz had three!
|
| 7:16 |
: “Do a lot of things to him”
|
| 7:16 |
“It’s like the best adrenaline rush ever!” says the fanduel/draft kings shrill. Try Russian Roulette, you incessant obnoxious cods. |
| 7:17 |
: Yeah, all you cods.
|
| 7:18 |
: Bien joue, Kris Bryant.
|
| 7:19 |
: That was a well executed baseball play
|
| 7:20 |
: He’s demonstrated excellent reflexes, is a boring and true observation I’m prepared to make.
|
| 7:20 |
I like how Rodriguez worked the jab on the cooler to keep it off balance so he could unload with the hook. Classic technique. |
| 7:20 |
I don’t believe in cod, and I don’t appreciate you all pushing your beliefs on me. |
| 7:20 |
i once, on a druken dare, russian rouletted myself with a butter knife. it hurt. |
| 7:21 |
: Am not sure there’s ever a chance of winning this particular affair.
|
| 7:21 |
: Bryant’s big question this year was supposed to be defense. +3 DRS, +5 UZR
|
| 7:21 |
: how many of us have done the thing where you jam a knife between all your fingers on a table top?
|
| 7:21 |
: Poll?
|
| 7:21 |
: You do it
|
| 7:22 |
: Gah.
|
| 7:22 |
: I have
|
| 7:23 |
: I wonder what percentage of all articles about this game will be written about Sean Rodriguez instead of about a player who made a difference
|
| 7:23 |
sullivan work ethic |
| 7:24 |
: I’ve written my articles today. I stopped working hours ago
|
| 7:24 |
Pirates radio linking it back to Jang Ho Kung |
| 7:24 |
: Next pitch is going for Coghlan in the dugout
|
| 7:24 |
it’s called “Five Finger Fillet,” i believe |
| 7:24 |
That poll suffers from self-selection bias. I question its scientific value |
| 7:25 |
Watching the Vancouver Canucks/Calgary Flames game. There was a fight off the opening faceoff. Take that MLB! |
| 7:26 |
think arrieta should be taken out now? |
| 7:27 |
: He really hasn’t looked sharp the last two or three innings. Not Arrieta-level sharp. And we’re third time through the order now. Wouldn’t be a bad choice.
|
| 7:28 |
: Vigorous punch out
|
| 7:28 |
: home plate umpire hasn’t given up on this
|
| 7:30 |
: I bet the Pirates would win more games if every loss had to be followed by a public execution of a team member
|
| 7:30 |
: Well on second thought the opposite of that
|
| 7:30 |
: Extremely the opposite of that
|
| 7:31 |
: In terms of relievers, a combination of Rodney, Rondon, and Strop would work well right now.
|
| 7:32 |
: And Wood.
|
| 7:32 |
: Rodney is seldom the solution
|
| 7:32 |
: The best thing about not having cable is not having literally any idea what Fan Duel or Draft Kings are
|
| 7:33 |
: Draft Kings is a rival gang to the Latin Kings.
|
| 7:33 |
: where are the territorial boundaries
|
| 7:34 |
: Fortunately, one of the two has an electronic presence exclusively. So there really aren’t a lot of opportunities for conflict.
|
| 7:34 |
so every win is followed by an execution?!? |
| 7:35 |
: sounds like Draft Kings is playing the long-term game. Eventually we’ll all be nothing but a collection of electronic presences
|
| 7:35 |
: Arrieta remains in the game.
|
| 7:36 |
: FanDuel is a site that facilitates virtual combat between offended parties and their offenders.
|
| 7:37 |
Fan Duel is what it sounds like. Two ceiling fans fight to the death for our entertainment |
| 7:37 |
Jeff, is that really true re daily fantasy? A rival site is a sponsor of the fangraphs podcasts… |
| 7:38 |
: Yes, you just perform a simple snake draft, select five players each, and those players accrue fantasy points. Nothing could be easier.
|
| 7:38 |
: Yes, it’s true. I’ve heard the names before but I don’t know anything about their businesses
|
| 7:39 |
Arrieta has missed nearly every spot for 2 innings |
| 7:39 |
: I have no obligation to be familiar with them. They have an obligation to give us money, and we have an obligation to mention them maybe
|
| 7:39 |
: Not at his sharpest, Arrieta, but with few consequences.
|
| 7:39 |
:
 Fan Duel |
| 7:40 |
: Now I get it!
|
| 7:40 |
does draft accept Yen as currency |
| 7:40 |
: Sounds like the right place to be would be in between the dueling fans on a hot afternoon
|
| 7:40 |
: No, strictly American currency.
|
| 7:41 |
complete game for arrieta? |
| 7:41 |
: Until he concedes a run, or gets into some sort of trouble, he appears likely to remain in the game.
|
| 7:41 |
: He did at least recently exceed 100 pitches
|
| 7:41 |
: But evidence suggests the Cubs don’t care much
|
| 7:43 |
: hey, a second Marlins guy
|
| 7:43 |
: those two might have to participate in a fan duel
|
| 7:44 |
I only wager in Swedish Krona |
| 7:44 |
Carson, if we wanted to, could we participate against you head-to-head in draft contests? |
| 7:44 |
: Interesting that you ask. Yes, if you just navigate to the post where this edition of the program is located, there’s a link that’ll allow you to do that.
|
| 7:45 |
cubs dont yet have mature and fully developed brains. they need to be at least 21 months old. should we really trust their judgement |
| 7:45 |
I specifically insulted FanDuel/Draft Kings and left out Draft because I appreciate the (presumably) incredibly full wheelbarrows of money they give to promote the program. And also because I haven’t read about any insider trading-style ruses involving them. Go Draft!! :-/ |
| 7:46 |
Carson, if I were to challenge you in a match on Draft could we wager wine or other delicious libations – such that Draft does not, presumably, take a cut? |
| 7:46 |
: As noted previously: ONLY AMERICAN CURRENCY.
|
| 7:47 |
: remember at the start of the year when Mark Melancon was throwing 89 – 90 and everybody freaked the shit out
|
| 7:48 |
:
 Is this showing left and right handed batters combined? If so, considering Nelson’s propensity for calling low and inside on lefties, why is that area of the zone fairly lacking in any activity? |
| 7:48 |
: Pitchers try to execute their own game plans, as opposed to executing in accordance with umpire tendencies
|
| 7:48 |
: down and in to lefties is a dangerous place to live
|
| 7:48 |
i like that kid in the 2nd row pretending to pitch and hit |
| 7:49 |
: Yes. There is a child up past his bedtime and also mirroring the pitchers.
|
| 7:49 |
: Can he do anything against Arrieta
|
| 7:49 |
: Sign that son of a bitch
|
| 7:49 |
: If he got hit, maybe even the Cubs would turn on their ace
|
| 7:50 |
: That swing looked like Jose Altuve’s swing last night
|
| 7:50 |
: Arrieta is ceremoniously donning his cap. He appears ready to return to the mound.
|
| 7:50 |
Kid? That’s Jameson Tailon |
| 7:50 |
“freaked the shit out” feels like its simultaneously unnecessary and ineffective censorship |
| 7:50 |
: these chats make me feel caught in between
|
| 7:51 |
Gosh fuck it |
| 7:52 |
: Bumgarner last year: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 K. Arrieta: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 11 K
|
| 7:52 |
: Mix in a couple hit batters and this has been almost identical
|
| 7:53 |
Joe Maddon is usually a very saber friendly manager. What gives on not taking Arrieta out? |
| 7:53 |
: Not his first time doing this
|
| 7:53 |
: He trusts Arrieta to stay healthy, and he wants to give him the moment.
|
| 7:54 |
This might be a stretch, but if Maddon is planning on using a bullpen prominently in Game 2 of the NLDS, could that be reason enough to ride Arrieta longer then expected? |
| 7:54 |
: Nah, if anything they could use the work
|
| 7:54 |
: Oh my. A triumvirate now of impressive reaction-type plays by Bryant.
|
| 7:55 |
Bryant has looked so smooth out there. |
| 7:55 |
Joe Maddon quote – “I never want to stand in the way of greatness” |
| 7:55 |
: Because of how big greatness is, probably. Would run Maddon right over.
|
| 7:55 |
Carson, re your sponsor, you recently said something like “you’re watching the games, why not lose money while doing it.” Did you receive a strongly worded email from said sponsor? |
| 7:55 |
: I think as long as I say the word Draft a lot, it’s okay.
|
| 7:56 |
I think it’s adorable that people think sponsors care what Carson says |
| 7:56 |
Can’t wait to read all the “Change the playoff format” articles tomorrow |
| 7:56 |
: Me, I think I’ll write about Jake Arrieta stealing a base
|
| 7:56 |
Arietta was getting high fives entering the dugout, not sure if that means he is done. |
| 7:56 |
: Wasn’t really ever close, was it?
|
| 7:57 |
: I think people just want to touch him
|
| 7:57 |
: So Jake Arrieta did what he was going to do
|
| 7:57 |
: And we’re all idiots for imagining otherwise
|
| 7:57 |
: We’re idiots for other reasons, too.
|
| 7:57 |
: Most of them
|
| 7:57 |
: Jeff. It was a pleasure!
|
| 7:57 |
: Likewise, friend!
|
| 7:58 |
: And friends.
|
| 7:58 |
: Everyone else: it was a pleasure!
|
| 7:58 |
: A timely playoff game is complete!
|
| 7:58 |
: You have to turn off the lights, Sullivan. I don’t completely know how.
|
| 7:58 |
: It would be my privilege.
|
| 7:59 |
: So long everybody!
|
| 7:59 |
: There will be more chats tomorrow and Friday. Maybe home teams will score runs, even.
|
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Lets go Bucs! Lets go Bucs! Lets go Bucs! Lets go Bucs! Lets go Bucs!
Lets go Cubs! Lets go Cubs! Lets go Cubs! Lets go Cubs! Lets go Cubs!
Partisanism!