2015 Positional Power Rankings: Relief Pitchers (#16-30)

What do we have here? For an explanation of this series, please read this introductory post. As noted in that introduction, the data below is a hybrid projection of the ZIPS and Steamer systems, with playing time determined through depth charts created by our team of authors. The rankings are based on aggregate projected WAR for each team at a given position.

Yes, we know WAR is imperfect and there is more to player value than is wrapped up in that single projection, but for the purposes of talking about a team’s strengths and weaknesses, it is a useful tool. Also, the author writing this post did not move your team down ten spots in order to make you angry. We don’t hate your team. I promise.

The rankings of power being conducted by this site have almost concluded. Today, we turn our attention to relief pitchers. We begin by turning our attention, specifically, to this graph:

Included here are the bullpens which feature the 16th to 30th most power in the major leagues. Jeff Sullivan will consider Nos. 1-15 later in the morning. Or, he probably will, at least. One oughtn’t get in the habit of assuming that everything will work out nicely. As Werner Herzog has almost certainly said at some point, disaster is inevitable.

Now, relief pitchers!

#16 Orioles

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Zach Britton	65.0	7.7	3.2	0.7	.293	74.5 %	3.24	3.54	0.5
Darren O’Day	65.0	9.1	2.5	1.0	.286	77.3 %	3.18	3.66	0.5
Tommy Hunter	55.0	7.5	1.9	1.0	.293	74.3 %	3.41	3.63	0.3
Brian Matusz	55.0	8.6	3.0	1.1	.296	75.4 %	3.61	3.85	0.3
Brad Brach	45.0	9.1	3.5	1.2	.291	75.6 %	3.75	4.06	0.0
Wesley Wright	40.0	7.7	3.3	0.9	.303	73.0 %	3.81	3.93	0.0
T.J. McFarland	35.0	6.1	2.8	0.7	.306	71.1 %	3.88	3.91	0.0
Ubaldo Jimenez	30.0	8.4	4.3	1.1	.297	72.5 %	4.21	4.32	-0.1
Oliver Drake	25.0	8.9	3.5	0.9	.301	74.6 %	3.61	3.81	0.0
Ryan Webb	20.0	6.5	2.8	0.9	.301	71.3 %	3.93	3.97	0.0
Dylan Bundy	15.0	6.8	3.6	1.1	.298	71.3 %	4.43	4.60	0.0
Evan Meek	10.0	6.0	3.6	1.0	.298	69.6 %	4.47	4.59	0.0
The Others	43.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	503.0	8.0	3.1	1.0	.298	73.6 %	3.72	3.91	1.5

It was originally the author’s intent to suggest that the current iteration of the Orioles’ bullpen differed substantially from that one which, in 2012, produced the highest Win Probability Added (WPA) figure in the recorded history of bullpens, contributing in no small part to the club’s first postseason berth since 1997. Playing off a theme originally established, it seems, by the now defunct auto manufacturer that this isn’t your father’s Oldsmobile, I was going to submit that this isn’t your slightly older brother’s Orioles bullpen. Mild amusement, is what would have ensued.

Except that amusement would have been founded in some combination both of lies and perfidy. Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, Brian Matusz, and Darren O’Day are expected to record the most relief innings for the Orioles this year: all four of them played roles of varying importance on that 2012 team, as well. Jim Johnson and Troy Patton and Pedro Strop have all departed, but it’s not as if there’s absolutely no continuity between the two groups.

Of some interest is Ubaldo Jimenez, who appears likely to assume a role in long relief. His next relief appearance will be only the fifth of his entire 10-year career. His ability to prevent runs has been tied pretty strongly to his velocity and he recorded the highest average fastball last year (by kinda a lot) in one of his three relief appearances. That’s somewhat promising.

Less promising were Oldsmobile’s sales after experimenting with this ad campaign:

#17 Indians

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Cody Allen	65.0	10.9	3.4	0.9	.308	77.3 %	3.14	3.19	0.9
Bryan Shaw	65.0	8.1	3.1	0.8	.305	72.1 %	3.71	3.64	0.2
Scott Atchison	55.0	6.6	2.2	0.8	.306	70.8 %	3.79	3.65	0.2
Marc Rzepczynski	55.0	7.8	3.5	0.8	.312	71.5 %	3.93	3.84	0.0
Nick Hagadone	45.0	10.0	4.1	1.0	.309	74.1 %	3.75	3.74	0.2
Josh Tomlin	40.0	7.2	1.7	1.2	.313	69.4 %	4.26	3.94	0.0
Kyle Crockett	35.0	8.3	2.7	0.8	.310	73.1 %	3.56	3.52	0.0
Anthony Swarzak	30.0	6.3	2.6	0.9	.311	70.0 %	4.13	3.89	0.0
Zach McAllister	25.0	7.3	2.6	0.9	.313	70.0 %	4.11	3.79	0.0
C.C. Lee	20.0	8.6	3.3	0.9	.311	71.8 %	3.88	3.77	0.0
Austin Adams	15.0	8.5	3.3	0.9	.312	71.4 %	3.97	3.74	0.0
Shawn Armstrong	10.0	9.5	4.1	1.0	.314	71.8 %	4.10	3.93	0.0
Charles Brewer	10.0	7.1	2.4	1.1	.313	69.9 %	4.30	4.09	0.0
The Others	26.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	496.0	8.3	3.0	0.9	.310	72.1 %	3.84	3.71	1.4

Cleveland’s pitching staff recorded the second-highest collective WAR in the league last year. That’s excellent, but it was also mostly a function of the team’s rotation — which produced whole months of Cy Young-level quality — and less because of the bullpen, which finished 16th overall by WAR.

More of the same, appears to be a reasonable expectation for the 2015 edition of the club. The rotation, addressed yesterday by Miles Wray, profiles as one of the league’s five best. The bullpen, meanwhile, is no great shakes — but not particularly bad shakes, either.

Key to its success is right-hander Cody Allen. Signed for $125,000 after having been selected in just the 23rd round of the 2011 draft, Allen became the second player of his draft year — after only current teammate Trevor Bauer — to debut in the majors. He’s been excellent since then, striking out nearly 30% of the 700 batters he’s faced since his promotion in 2012.

Right-hander Austin Adams continues to bear watching, as well. He recorded the highest average fastball velocity among all Cleveland pitchers in 2014 and has benefited, it would appear, from a full-time move to the bullpen at the beginning of 2013.

#18 Angels

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Huston Street	65.0	8.4	2.5	1.1	.290	76.2 %	3.40	3.68	0.3
Joe Smith	65.0	7.9	2.7	0.7	.295	74.8 %	3.17	3.43	0.5
Fernando Salas	55.0	8.2	2.6	1.0	.301	73.3 %	3.63	3.66	0.2
Vinnie Pestano	55.0	9.2	3.4	0.9	.300	76.2 %	3.43	3.65	0.3
Mike Morin	45.0	7.9	2.6	0.8	.302	72.5 %	3.54	3.55	0.2
Cory Rasmus	40.0	8.5	4.3	1.0	.298	73.9 %	3.97	4.17	-0.1
Cam Bedrosian	35.0	9.9	4.3	0.8	.305	74.0 %	3.62	3.63	0.0
Hector Santiago	30.0	7.5	3.6	1.0	.295	73.1 %	4.02	4.29	0.0
Nicholas Tropeano	25.0	7.6	2.8	0.9	.302	70.8 %	3.98	3.87	0.0
Cesar Ramos	20.0	7.3	3.3	1.0	.298	71.8 %	4.05	4.10	0.0
Drew Rucinski	15.0	7.1	2.5	0.9	.304	71.5 %	3.84	3.83	0.0
Jeremy Mcbryde	10.0	8.3	3.5	1.0	.302	73.1 %	3.86	4.01	0.0
Matt Lindstrom	10.0	6.3	2.9	0.7	.308	70.8 %	3.90	3.79	0.0
The Others	11.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	0.0
Total	481.0	8.2	3.1	0.9	.299	73.8 %	3.64	3.76	1.4

Much like a divorced father who’s always forgetting when it’s his day to pick up the kids from school, Angels reliever Huston Street has become accustomed to stranding people. In the case of Street, however, it’s not children suffering the baleful effects of their parents’ legal separation who he’s stranding, but rather major-league baseball runners. Between 2013 and -14, Street produced a left-on-base rate (LOB%) of 96.1% — the highest such mark among the nearly 500 pitchers to compile at least 50 innings during that interval.

Depending on how one looks at it, Street’s accomplishment is either good news or not-so-good news. It’s good in the sense that it has allowed Street to produce one of the top-20 park-adjusted ERAs over the last two seasons. It’s not so good in the sense that LOB% from one season is barely predictive of LOB% in the next — and rates above 80% are rarely (if ever) sustained. It won’t be surprising, in other words, if Street’s ERA skews decidedly closer to his FIP in 2015.

Unlike many modern bullpens, the Angels’ actually features a pretty even distribution of talent among its top-four or -five members. Vinnie Pestano, Fernando Salas, and Joe Smith are all roughly Street’s equal — in terms of product, if not necessarily process.

Of some interest towards the back of the pen is right-hander Drew Rucinski. Undrafted out of college, he was eventually signed out of the independent Frontier League in 2013. He averaged nearly a strikeout per inning as a starter with Double-A Arkansas last year and acquitted himself quite well in a brief September audition. He not not a candidate to start for the Angels, even.

#19 Red Sox

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Koji Uehara	65.0	10.5	1.6	1.0	.292	81.3 %	2.57	2.86	1.5
Junichi Tazawa	65.0	9.0	2.5	0.8	.307	74.5 %	3.28	3.23	0.7
Edward Mujica	55.0	6.5	2.1	1.1	.303	71.3 %	3.97	3.96	0.0
Craig Breslow	55.0	6.4	3.8	1.0	.303	71.2 %	4.42	4.55	-0.4
Anthony Varvaro	45.0	7.0	3.4	0.8	.303	71.7 %	3.98	4.01	-0.1
Alexi Ogando	40.0	7.8	3.4	1.0	.300	73.2 %	3.93	4.06	-0.1
Tom Layne	35.0	7.7	4.2	0.8	.302	72.4 %	3.95	4.10	-0.1
Robbie Ross	30.0	6.9	2.9	0.8	.308	73.0 %	3.68	3.81	0.0
Matt Barnes	25.0	7.6	3.1	0.9	.306	72.0 %	3.98	3.98	0.0
Brandon Workman	20.0	7.7	2.8	1.1	.304	72.1 %	4.07	4.08	0.0
The Others	66.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.2
Total	501.0	7.9	3.0	0.9	.305	72.8 %	3.83	3.86	1.3

One finds in the depth-chart image above that the Red Sox bullpen is projected to produce about 1.3 wins as a group in 2015 while Koji Uehara is projected to produce 1.5 (i.e. more) wins all by himself. Uehara, one is able to conclude while asking no more questions, is better than all the rest of Boston’s relief corps combined.

It’d be ideal for Boston if Uehara could throw roughly all their relief innings this year. At this point, unfortunately, it appears as though he’ll begin the season by throwing much closer to none of them. A strained hamstring suffered in mid-March has left Uehera unable to throw yet at 100%, and now it appears inevitable that he’ll begin the season on the disabled list.

The advantage of a top-heavy bullpen such as Boston’s is that it allows the manager to reserve his best relievers for the highest-leverage moments. If those best relievers are unable to pitch, however, the result is a vulnerable bullpen. In Uehara’s absence, Edward Mujica appears likely to fill the closer role. Given the projections, however, allowing Junichi Tazawa to pitch in high-leverage situations would also appear to have some benefits.

#20 Mets

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Jenrry Mejia	65.0	9.1	3.3	0.8	.312	73.8 %	3.55	3.47	0.4
Bobby Parnell	65.0	7.9	2.7	0.7	.306	72.8 %	3.41	3.33	0.6
Jeurys Familia	55.0	8.9	3.8	0.7	.302	74.4 %	3.37	3.50	0.3
Vic Black	55.0	9.6	4.8	0.8	.304	74.2 %	3.75	3.91	0.1
Jerry Blevins	45.0	9.1	3.2	0.8	.294	75.5 %	3.34	3.56	0.1
Alex Torres	40.0	9.4	5.0	0.7	.298	73.7 %	3.66	3.86	0.0
Carlos Torres	35.0	8.3	3.0	1.0	.301	73.7 %	3.71	3.83	0.0
Scott Rice	30.0	7.6	4.7	0.7	.305	72.0 %	4.09	4.18	-0.1
Rafael Montero	25.0	8.7	3.0	0.9	.301	73.8 %	3.62	3.68	0.0
Josh Edgin	20.0	8.8	3.8	0.8	.302	73.4 %	3.73	3.76	0.0
Steven Matz	15.0	7.9	2.9	0.8	.306	72.1 %	3.72	3.67	0.0
The Others	23.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	473.0	8.7	3.7	0.8	.304	73.5 %	3.64	3.69	1.2

If the current post were published last week and not this one, the Mets entry would look substantively different. Consider: left-handers Jerry Blevins and Alex Torres are currently projected to post the fifth- and sixth-highest innings totals, respectively, among Mets relievers. As recently as Monday morning, they were employed by other clubs.

The costs weren’t negligble. Outfielder Matt den Dekker, sent to Washington for Blevins, produced about a win last season in under 200 plate appearances. That performance probably overestimates his true-talent level, but he’s almost certainly a capable fourth outfielder. Right-hander Cory Mazzoni, meanwhile — traded to San Diego for Torres — was one of the Mets’ most major-league-ready prospects. He could be of some use to the Padres bullpen starting now.

Those moves by Sandy Alderson et al. suggest that the club regards itself as occupying some place on the win curve where the acquisition of one or another bullpen piece might separate them from the playoffs. Broadly speaking, the projected standings support this supposition. If they can dispatch with the Miami, the Mets will be contending with the Cubs, Giants, Padres and Pirates to qualify for the play-in game.

#21 Giants

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Santiago Casilla	65.0	7.6	3.2	0.7	.293	74.5 %	3.31	3.60	0.2
Sergio Romo	65.0	8.8	2.2	0.8	.295	76.1 %	3.02	3.24	0.7
Jeremy Affeldt	55.0	7.0	3.1	0.5	.301	72.6 %	3.31	3.42	0.2
Javier Lopez	55.0	6.7	3.5	0.6	.299	71.7 %	3.65	3.75	-0.1
Yusmeiro Petit	45.0	8.2	2.0	1.0	.300	73.2 %	3.47	3.45	0.2
Jean Machi	40.0	7.2	2.7	0.7	.294	72.8 %	3.38	3.55	0.0
George Kontos	35.0	8.3	2.7	0.8	.298	74.7 %	3.22	3.36	0.0
Erik Cordier	30.0	10.3	4.8	0.6	.302	74.3 %	3.39	3.54	0.0
Hunter Strickland	25.0	9.3	2.4	0.7	.303	75.9 %	2.89	2.95	0.1
Tim Lincecum	20.0	8.0	3.5	0.9	.305	70.7 %	4.14	3.96	0.0
Brett Bochy	15.0	7.8	3.7	0.9	.297	72.8 %	3.81	4.02	0.0
Ryan Vogelsong	10.0	6.9	2.9	0.9	.300	71.0 %	4.04	4.05	0.0
The Others	4.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	0.0
Total	464.0	7.9	3.0	0.7	.298	73.5 %	3.39	3.52	1.2

Sabermetric orthodoxy suggests that signing aging left-handed relievers to three-year contracts — such as the Giants have done in recent offseasons with both Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez — isn’t a particularly great use of resources. Regarding the wisdom of those decisions, however, San Francisco general manager Brian Sabean might take it upon himself to direct one’s attention to the nearest scoreboard.

Sabean’s Giants have claimed three of the last five World Series and, insofar as winning championships is mostly the point of competing in the majors leagues, these San Francisco teams have almost by definition been designed well.

The relief corps that helped San Francisco win its most recent Series returns almost wholly unchanged. In fact, all six of the club’s relievers who recorded positive WAR figures last year are expected to figure prominently in 2015, as well. The top reliever by that measure, Yusmeiro Petit, remains a mystery — but a mystery that’s really good at preventing runs out of the bullpen.

#22 Diamondbacks

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Addison Reed	65.0	9.3	2.6	1.0	.302	74.2 %	3.48	3.46	0.7
Brad Ziegler	65.0	6.6	3.1	0.6	.300	73.5 %	3.42	3.72	0.2
Oliver Perez	55.0	10.4	3.8	0.9	.307	75.9 %	3.37	3.55	0.4
Randall Delgado	55.0	8.4	3.3	1.1	.303	72.7 %	4.03	4.07	0.0
Evan Marshall	45.0	8.9	3.4	0.7	.309	73.5 %	3.43	3.41	0.2
Daniel Hudson	40.0	7.9	2.6	0.9	.306	69.9 %	3.88	3.62	0.1
Vidal Nuno	35.0	7.4	2.4	1.2	.298	72.2 %	4.04	4.15	0.0
Enrique Burgos	30.0	9.9	5.7	0.9	.308	71.9 %	4.31	4.26	-0.1
Andrew Chafin	25.0	7.2	3.6	0.9	.305	71.6 %	4.13	4.19	0.0
Matt Stites	20.0	7.9	3.1	1.1	.301	72.0 %	4.10	4.17	0.0
Robbie Ray	15.0	7.4	3.8	1.1	.305	70.7 %	4.53	4.54	0.0
Matt Reynolds	10.0	7.7	2.6	0.9	.304	73.0 %	3.61	3.60	0.0
David Hernandez	10.0	10.2	3.3	1.0	.297	77.3 %	3.26	3.53	0.0
A.J. Schugel	10.0	6.7	3.5	1.0	.306	70.1 %	4.37	4.33	0.0
The Others	41.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	521.0	8.4	3.3	0.9	.305	72.7 %	3.83	3.85	1.1

Right-hander Evan Marshall produced the best FIP mark among Arizona’s regular relievers in 2014. He’s projected to do the same thing in 2015, as well.

His resume is worthy of comment. Consider, for example, Marshall’s strikeout rates over three recent and consecutive seasons in the minors:

2012: 12.6%
2013: 21.6%
2014: 30.7%

Those numbers are from Double-A, Triple-A, and then Triple-A again — in that order. One notes that the trend is decidedly upward. “What happened?” is a question one is compelled to ask. It’s the literal question I was compelled to ask of the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro — and one Piecoro asked of Marshall himself last September.

Marshall’s success with the changeup appears to be key. Indeed, in terms of changeup usage, Marshall finished among the top-10% of all relievers last year. Despite throwing the pitch with some frequency, Marshall still produced a swinging-strike rate of about 19% with the changeup — about four points above league average.

#23 White Sox

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
David Robertson	65.0	11.7	3.1	0.8	.314	77.0 %	2.99	2.82	1.4
Zach Duke	65.0	9.0	2.9	0.9	.313	73.3 %	3.64	3.52	0.5
Zach Putnam	55.0	7.9	3.7	0.8	.304	71.9 %	3.94	3.92	0.0
Javy Guerra	55.0	7.1	4.0	1.0	.309	69.6 %	4.66	4.51	-0.3
Dan Jennings	45.0	8.5	3.8	0.9	.313	72.6 %	4.05	3.95	0.0
Jake Petricka	40.0	6.9	4.3	0.8	.307	71.7 %	4.16	4.19	-0.1
Matt Albers	35.0	6.7	3.5	0.9	.303	71.3 %	4.19	4.23	0.0
Daniel Webb	30.0	7.9	5.2	0.9	.307	70.8 %	4.57	4.47	-0.1
Eric Surkamp	25.0	7.8	3.1	1.3	.309	70.9 %	4.44	4.40	-0.1
Maikel Cleto	20.0	9.4	6.0	1.2	.309	71.0 %	5.06	5.03	-0.1
Onelki Garcia	15.0	8.5	6.1	1.0	.311	70.9 %	5.00	4.96	-0.1
Erik Johnson	10.0	6.1	4.2	1.3	.309	67.7 %	5.37	5.16	0.0
Michael Ynoa	10.0	7.5	5.5	1.2	.309	69.1 %	5.34	5.17	0.0
Kyle Drabek	10.0	6.5	3.3	1.4	.305	69.0 %	4.94	4.90	0.0
Raul Fernandez	10.0	6.8	6.0	1.3	.307	68.6 %	5.78	5.74	-0.1
Total	463.0	8.3	3.9	1.0	.308	72.0 %	4.12	4.06	1.0

The White Sox were one of three clubs in 2014 to produce a negative bullpen WAR. That’s not great, obviously. On the other hand, it’s almost a badge of honor for a team with little hope of contending for the playoffs. Relief pitchers are really the last area into which a team ought to be investing resources, and the White Sox invested hardly any of their resources in relievers last year, instead assembling a group of pitchers who either remained under team control or who were committed to just one-year deals.

After the acquisitions this offseason of Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, and Jeff Samardzija, however, the White Sox appear to regard themselves as contenders within the AL Central. Accordingly, they’ve upgraded their bullpen, committing seven years and $61 million to Zach Duke and David Robertson. Those two have immediately become the club’s strongest relief options, accounting for roughly 200% of Chicago’s projected bullpen WAR. If they remain healthy, the bullpen will be almost nearly average; if they don’t, it could very well transform into a carnival of miseries.

#24 Twins

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Glen Perkins	65.0	9.7	2.3	0.9	.310	74.7 %	3.22	3.12	1.2
Casey Fien	65.0	8.3	2.3	1.1	.307	73.1 %	3.76	3.68	0.5
Brian Duensing	55.0	6.9	3.1	0.9	.314	70.4 %	4.18	3.94	0.1
Tim Stauffer	55.0	7.3	3.2	0.9	.319	69.8 %	4.29	3.94	-0.1
Mike Pelfrey	45.0	5.6	3.2	1.1	.316	67.5 %	4.99	4.63	-0.3
J.R. Graham	40.0	6.2	3.1	0.9	.315	69.2 %	4.47	4.21	-0.1
Blaine Boyer	35.0	7.1	2.5	1.0	.310	70.3 %	4.13	3.91	0.0
Caleb Thielbar	30.0	7.2	3.3	0.9	.307	71.2 %	4.14	4.04	0.0
Alex Meyer	25.0	8.8	4.1	0.9	.315	71.5 %	4.16	3.97	0.0
Michael Tonkin	20.0	8.0	3.0	0.8	.316	71.0 %	3.97	3.71	0.0
Stephen Pryor	15.0	7.7	5.4	1.1	.311	69.6 %	5.09	4.93	-0.1
Ryan Pressly	10.0	6.7	3.1	0.8	.310	69.9 %	4.19	3.96	0.0
Logan Darnell	10.0	6.3	3.2	1.2	.315	68.1 %	4.98	4.68	0.0
A.J. Achter	10.0	7.4	3.4	1.0	.310	70.6 %	4.33	4.18	0.0
The Others	12.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	0.0
Total	492.0	7.6	3.0	1.0	.313	70.7 %	4.15	3.94	1.0

Too frequently, internet webloggers say of this or that player that he “sucks.” It’s an instinct, that, lacking seriously in generosity. Whatever the shortcomings of the player in question, he’s still revealed himself as an excellent ballplayer merely by virtue of finding his way to the majors. That alone renders him one of the thousand or so best in the world.

If we take for granted that no major leaguer really sucks, it’s also essential to note that some of them are better than others in a pretty conspicuous way. With regard to the Twins bullpen, for example, it’s manifestly correct to say that none of them suck. It’s also probably right to say that, outside of Perkins and (maybe) Fien, that none of them are particularly great, either.

On the plus side, the team is projected to win just 70 games, meaning that the bullpen is structured in proportion to the rest of the club.

#25 Tigers

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Joe Nathan	65.0	8.5	3.5	0.8	.306	73.0 %	3.80	3.71	0.3
Joakim Soria	65.0	8.8	2.6	0.8	.311	73.4 %	3.43	3.33	0.9
Al Alburquerque	55.0	10.4	3.9	0.9	.311	74.4 %	3.69	3.61	0.2
Joba Chamberlain	55.0	8.0	3.6	0.9	.312	70.1 %	4.17	3.91	0.0
Bruce Rondon	45.0	9.5	4.1	0.8	.311	73.0 %	3.82	3.65	0.1
Tom Gorzelanny	40.0	7.9	3.2	1.0	.311	72.2 %	4.01	3.96	0.0
Kyle Ryan	35.0	4.7	2.7	1.3	.308	66.8 %	5.20	5.00	-0.2
Angel Nesbitt	30.0	7.1	3.9	1.1	.308	69.4 %	4.74	4.65	-0.1
Blaine Hardy	25.0	7.9	3.3	0.9	.307	73.0 %	3.82	3.87	0.0
Ian Krol	20.0	8.0	3.0	1.1	.309	71.1 %	4.21	4.10	0.0
Buck Farmer	15.0	6.8	3.2	1.4	.310	68.2 %	5.06	4.85	-0.1
Kyle Lobstein	10.0	6.3	3.2	1.1	.312	68.4 %	4.76	4.47	0.0
Alex Wilson	10.0	6.7	3.6	1.0	.302	71.2 %	4.35	4.43	0.0
Josh Zeid	10.0	7.7	4.1	1.2	.312	70.1 %	4.77	4.62	0.0
Total	459.0	8.2	3.4	1.0	.309	71.7 %	4.04	3.93	1.0

It’s difficult to tell the story of the 2014 Tigers without citing the club’s bullpen woes. Both the hitters and starting pitchers finished among the majors’ top-10 clubs by WAR; the relievers, 30th. Unfortunately, their weakness was strongest in the postseason: in three ALDS games against Baltimore, the Detroit bullpen conceded 11 runs over just 4.2 innings — and, notably, two of those were scoreless innings recorded by usual starter Anibal Sanchez. Bleak, is the word for which you’re searching.

For all that unpleasantness, however, it wasn’t obvious that Detroit’s relief corps would so fabulously implode. Last year, in this same exercise, the bullpen was ranked 15th overall in the league. Which, that’s not ideal for a club very intent on winning the World Series, but it’s also not an invitation to disaster. Furthermore, Dombrowski et al. theoretically improved the bullpen at midseason by acquiring Joakim Soria.

The effects of regression alone render it unlikely that the Tigers bullpen will plumb last year’s awful depths. It’s probably unsettling for fans of the club, however, that most of last year’s key pieces are returning. A possible exception to that is Bruce Rondon, although some neck and shoulder problems this spring are marring his comeback, as well.

#26 Marlins

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Steve Cishek	65.0	10.1	3.1	0.6	.310	76.0 %	2.91	2.86	1.1
Bryan Morris	65.0	7.2	3.4	0.8	.304	72.3 %	3.81	3.92	-0.2
Mike Dunn	55.0	9.9	3.7	0.7	.307	75.2 %	3.23	3.27	0.6
A.J. Ramos	55.0	9.5	4.8	0.6	.299	73.9 %	3.56	3.66	0.0
Sam Dyson	45.0	6.9	3.3	0.6	.308	72.1 %	3.63	3.69	0.0
Brad Hand	40.0	7.3	3.8	0.9	.302	71.7 %	4.11	4.16	-0.2
Andre Rienzo	35.0	6.9	3.9	0.9	.309	69.9 %	4.45	4.30	-0.1
David Phelps	30.0	7.8	3.3	0.8	.303	72.1 %	3.77	3.80	0.0
Carter Capps	25.0	10.2	3.2	0.7	.314	75.1 %	3.27	3.16	0.0
Andrew Mckirahan	20.0	8.1	3.4	0.9	.303	72.6 %	3.76	3.83	0.0
The Others	59.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.2
Total	494.0	8.4	3.7	0.8	.308	72.8 %	3.73	3.71	1.0

Last year, only 11 relievers reached the two-win threshold. In part, that’s an illustration of the sort of value they provide (or don’t provide). Two wins — i.e. the production of an average hitter — is an elite level for a reliever (with certain obvious caveats about leverage, etc.) It’s also to note, however, that Marlins right-hander Steve Cishek was one of those 11 relievers.

Selected in the fifth round of the 2007 draft out of Carson-Newman College, Cishek’s signing was obscure enough that a French Wikipedia entry is one of the few sources that contains information about the bonus he received. Over the last three years, however, he’s been among the top relievers in the majors, ranking within the top-10 both by Shutdowns and Win Probability Added. It’s probable that, if he remains healthy in 2015, he’ll continue to perform like one of the league’s top relievers.

After Cishek and teammate Mike Dunn, unfortunately, there’s little substantive help. Which isn’t to say that there’s no possibility of help. (Right-hander Carter Capps, for example, throws quite hard and has produced excellent fielding-independent numbers.) It’s just that the source of that theoretically help isn’t immediately apparent.

#27 Brewers

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Francisco Rodriguez	65.0	9.6	3.1	1.2	.299	74.9 %	3.67	3.79	0.2
Jonathan Broxton	65.0	7.9	3.0	0.9	.297	74.0 %	3.64	3.83	0.3
Will Smith	55.0	10.7	3.2	0.9	.312	76.3 %	3.23	3.22	0.5
Brandon Kintzler	55.0	6.0	2.9	0.9	.305	71.3 %	4.02	4.06	-0.1
Jeremy Jeffress	45.0	8.6	4.1	0.7	.310	72.8 %	3.75	3.74	0.1
Jim Henderson	40.0	10.1	3.7	1.0	.307	74.3 %	3.74	3.67	0.2
Tyler Thornburg	35.0	8.5	4.0	1.0	.302	72.7 %	3.98	4.06	0.0
Rob Wooten	30.0	7.0	2.8	0.9	.308	70.7 %	4.05	3.93	0.0
Neal Cotts	25.0	9.3	3.3	0.8	.302	75.6 %	3.36	3.48	0.0
Corey Knebel	20.0	10.5	4.0	0.9	.305	75.4 %	3.46	3.54	0.0
Michael Blazek	15.0	7.9	4.3	1.1	.303	72.1 %	4.35	4.49	0.0
David Goforth	10.0	6.5	4.3	1.0	.304	70.5 %	4.59	4.65	0.0
Mike Strong	10.0	8.7	4.7	1.2	.304	71.6 %	4.52	4.59	0.0
The Others	28.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	498.0	8.6	3.4	0.9	.305	73.3 %	3.81	3.84	1.0

Right-hander Jim Henderson has been surprisingly effective for a player who made his major-league debut at the age of 29. One assumes that, given his extensive experience in the game — and his obvious desire to remain within it despite adversity — that he’s also considered how he’ll pass the time when he’s no longer able to play. This spring, he’s shown early signs that he might have some interest in management, having taken the initiative to decide the Mariners shortstop competition all by himself.

#28 Rockies

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
LaTroy Hawkins	65.0	6.3	2.2	1.0	.312	70.8 %	4.03	3.89	0.4
Rex Brothers	65.0	9.5	4.8	0.9	.316	73.2 %	4.15	4.05	0.1
Adam Ottavino	55.0	9.5	3.1	0.9	.316	74.1 %	3.57	3.44	0.6
John Axford	55.0	9.3	4.4	1.0	.315	71.8 %	4.24	4.02	0.0
David Hale	45.0	5.2	4.0	1.1	.314	68.7 %	5.13	5.02	-0.3
Boone Logan	40.0	9.7	3.6	1.0	.315	73.0 %	3.98	3.77	0.1
Chad Bettis	35.0	7.2	3.3	1.1	.318	69.7 %	4.63	4.34	-0.1
Gus Schlosser	30.0	5.9	3.4	1.1	.313	68.9 %	4.88	4.72	-0.1
Jairo Diaz	25.0	7.9	3.8	1.1	.314	70.3 %	4.51	4.34	0.0
Tommy Kahnle	20.0	8.8	4.7	1.0	.308	71.4 %	4.39	4.25	0.0
Brooks Brown	15.0	7.4	2.9	1.1	.309	71.5 %	4.20	4.17	0.0
Greg Burke	10.0	8.0	3.6	1.2	.312	71.1 %	4.47	4.35	0.0
Rafael Betancourt	10.0	7.0	3.3	1.3	.306	69.9 %	4.69	4.64	0.0
The Others	46.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	516.0	8.0	3.7	1.0	.315	71.2 %	4.33	4.16	0.5

As this site has gained a larger readership among the general public and in front offices, it’s also gained one within clubhouses. Which, that’s not to say — not at all — that the average major-league locker room is now occupied exclusively by giant and talented players buried in their laptops and exporting custom leaderboards to Excel so that they might better work with the data. What it does mean, however, is that more players read the words we write.

It’s always wise to be respectful in one’s analysis — there’s really no excuse for being flippant or dismissive or rude — but one feels an even greater responsibility when he’s aware that the player about whom he’s writing might be on the other side of the words he’s typing.

Right-hander Adam Ottavino is the sort of player who’s occassionally on the other side. Last season, he initiated a discussion with Eno Sarris — something even Sarris’s friends are loath to do — and wanted to talk about Steve Cishek’s success. More recently, he provided enough material for David Laurila to craft two posts about it.

The point of this entry, then, isn’t to dissect the Rockies bullpen. It’s to make this awkward statement about how Adam Ottavino is maybe right now reading about Adam Ottavino.

#29 Blue Jays

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Brett Cecil	65.0	10.4	3.5	0.8	.311	75.1 %	3.29	3.26	0.8
Aaron Loup	65.0	7.5	3.0	0.8	.300	73.4 %	3.57	3.82	0.4
Marco Estrada	55.0	8.0	2.3	1.5	.293	73.1 %	4.18	4.31	-0.1
Todd Redmond	55.0	7.8	2.9	1.0	.304	73.2 %	3.90	3.95	0.1
Miguel Castro	45.0	7.3	5.0	1.1	.302	70.0 %	4.85	4.83	-0.4
Roberto Osuna	40.0	7.8	4.8	1.0	.303	70.6 %	4.61	4.59	-0.2
Colt Hynes	35.0	7.5	2.1	1.1	.307	71.8 %	3.92	3.86	0.0
Liam Hendriks	30.0	7.0	1.6	1.2	.308	70.5 %	4.08	3.94	0.0
Steve Delabar	25.0	10.1	4.6	1.1	.304	73.5 %	4.12	4.18	0.0
Aaron Sanchez	20.0	7.3	4.7	1.0	.298	70.6 %	4.54	4.62	-0.1
The Others	52.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	-0.1
Total	487.0	8.1	3.4	1.0	.305	72.1 %	4.09	4.10	0.4

In the middle of last month, Dave Cameron wrote about the Reds and, specifically, about manager Bryan Price’s suggestion that he was inclined to install veterans Paul Maholm and Jason Marquis in the rotation instead of Tony Cingrani or Anthony DeSclafani or Raisel Iglesias. Maholm and Marquis have merit insofar as their likely performances are easier to project than those of their younger, less experienced teammates. The problem, of course, is that those performances will almost certainly be mediocre. The Reds, meanwhile, will likely require something better than mediocre from the back of their rotation in order to qualify for the postseason. The greater uncertainty provided by Cingrani and DeScalfani and Iglesias is actually a benefit in this case, while Maholm and Marquis are essentially human white flags.

This is perhaps somewhere at the root of Toronto’s decision to enter the season with both Miguel Castro and Roberto Osuna on the 25-man roster. Neither has been treated with particular warmth by the projections here — but, then again, neither has the Blue Jays bullpen as a whole. Remove Castro and Osuna, and the club’s relief ranking ascends up only to the 22-27 range. So, not much more excellent.

The Blue Jays are a team hoping to contend, though, and they’ll probably need something better than mediocre from their bullpen. While the most likely outcome from both Castro and Osuna is something slightly below replacement level, those two — like Cingrani and DeScalfani and Iglesias — also offer a greater range of possible outcomes than other possible options for the Jays’ pen. Some of those outcomes would render Toronto’s relief corps a more effective group overall.

#30 Rangers

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Neftali Feliz	65.0	8.1	3.6	1.0	.298	74.1 %	3.91	4.14	0.2
Shawn Tolleson	65.0	8.8	3.6	1.1	.299	74.0 %	3.93	4.09	0.0
Tanner Scheppers	55.0	7.4	2.9	1.0	.305	71.9 %	4.01	4.16	0.1
Roman Mendez	55.0	7.2	4.0	1.1	.300	70.8 %	4.44	4.54	-0.2
Alex Claudio	45.0	7.1	2.6	0.9	.309	71.2 %	3.93	3.86	0.0
Phil Klein	40.0	9.6	4.4	0.9	.300	73.9 %	3.85	4.04	0.0
Anthony Ranaudo	35.0	6.3	3.5	1.3	.299	71.0 %	4.74	4.92	-0.1
Kyuji Fujikawa	30.0	8.7	3.3	1.1	.313	71.8 %	4.11	4.04	0.0
Joe Beimel	25.0	5.9	3.6	1.0	.301	71.0 %	4.47	4.60	-0.1
Jonathan Edwards	20.0	8.4	6.3	1.0	.307	71.1 %	4.92	4.95	-0.1
Lisalverto Bonilla	15.0	9.3	3.9	1.0	.305	72.5 %	4.00	3.97	0.0
Juan Oviedo	10.0	7.8	3.7	1.0	.302	70.6 %	4.27	4.29	0.0
Jamey Wright	10.0	6.9	3.4	0.8	.311	70.4 %	4.15	4.06	0.0
Spencer Patton	10.0	8.9	3.7	1.2	.305	71.6 %	4.24	4.23	0.0
Matt Harrison	10.0	6.0	3.1	1.0	.304	70.7 %	4.37	4.35	0.0
Nick Tepesch	10.0	5.4	2.8	1.2	.304	69.0 %	4.71	4.70	0.0
The Others	5.0	7.9	4.0	1.0	.324	69.7 %	4.73	4.40	0.0
Total	505.0	7.8	3.6	1.1	.303	72.1 %	4.17	4.26	-0.3

At one point in the not very distant past, the discussion regarding Neftali Feliz was whether he would develop into a dominant starter or a dominant reliever, such was the quality of his arm speed and the ease with which he produced it. Entering the 2015 season, the expectations concerning Feliz are different. After working as a starter in 2012, Feliz tore his UCL and was compelled to undergo Tommy John surgery. Returning at the beginning of last July, he featured something less than his characteristic fastball velocity and his career-low strikeout rate of 17.2% was indicative of that.

If there’s a bright spot, it’s that Feliz threw harder in September (94.6 mph over 9.0 innings) than in July (92.0 mph over 13.1 innings) — and the reports from spring appear to skew closer to the latter number than the former. Still, it’s little consolation when one must resort to this sort of logical breakdancing in order to make positive comments about this team’s best reliever. The club’s other top two relievers, meanwhile — Tanner Scheppers and Shawn Tolleson — are dealing with non-negligible injury concerns.

Of some considerable interest in this bullpen — both for his aesthetic virtues and his ability, it would appear, to prevent runs — is left-hander Alex Claudio. Sitting at roughly 84 mph with his fastball, he throws a changeup roughly 20 mph slower than that. He was excellent, nonetheless, in a 12-inning audition with the parent club last September.