2015 World Series Game Four Live Weblog
October 31, 2015
| 7:49 |
: This is the World Series Game Four Live Weblog. Please don’t hesitate to begin saying whatever you’ve come here to say.
|
| 7:50 |
: Perhaps consider this: what the over/under on infield fly balls induced by Chris Young? That seems like a moderately interesting question to contemplate.
|
| 7:52 |
5. Or, one per inning pitched |
| 7:55 |
12 |
| 7:55 |
I’ll say 3. And aren’t we lucky to chat with sexy Carson Cistulli! |
| 7:57 |
: The price is also being required to chat with Owen and me.
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|
| 7:58 |
: Neil! Hello!
|
| 7:58 |
: Good evening esteemed chatters and fellow panelists!
|
| 7:58 |
: Hi, Carson!
|
| 7:58 |
: And hello, Watson.
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| 7:58 |
: Hello!
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| 7:58 |
: The reader might not know that Carson had the audacity to tell me yesterday that the world might not be interested in Joe Blanton until next week.
|
| 8:00 |
Good evening, is A Rod showing himself as a competent commentator thus far
|
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| 8:01 |
: “Evidence” seems to suggest that Young produced 1 IFFB per roughly every 4.0 IP this year.
|
| 8:02 |
DOES ESCOBAR SWING AT THE FIRST PITCH
|
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| 8:04 |
Escobar does not. Only because a batter finds it difficult to swing at pitches that are thrown behind them |
| 8:04 |
Joe Blanton would be more competent than certain members of the broadcast team |
| 8:05 |
: The best pitcher, no doubt.
|
| 8:08 |
The players should be required to play this game in costume |
| 8:08 |
: I mean…uniforms are a type of costume.
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| 8:09 |
: First pitch…
|
| 8:09 |
: Swing!
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| 8:09 |
: Second pitch…
|
| 8:09 |
: Sort of swing!
|
| 8:09 |
The first-pitch curve seems like a much better idea than up-and-in |
| 8:10 |
under/over 25 times “Halloween” said on the broadcast
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| 8:10 |
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| 8:11 |
: The lack of depth to the bear’s face is unsettling.
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| 8:11 |
Is it time to recognize that Alcides Escobar is a star player? |
| 8:12 |
: Among all adult humans? Yes.
|
| 8:12 |
If we power rank all the Long Island-*looking* people in sports, does Matz already fall in the top five? |
| 8:13 |
: My mother will be upset to learn that he isn’t Jewish.
|
| 8:13 |
Matz looks like he could be Joe DiMaggio’s grandson |
| 8:13 |
: Interference!
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| 8:14 |
Still shocked Conforto isn’t a Jersey boy. Washington state??
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| 8:15 |
Why do the royals act like any up and in pith is some sort of personal affront?
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| 8:16 |
Oops. Thought this was a WE blog. |
| 8:16 |
: Luckily everyone who would get this joke is here.
|
| 8:18 |
So the gray line that got added to the live WE graph is the WE without factoring in projections right? Just every game in that situation? While green is the normal one factoring in projections? |
| 8:18 |
: Gray line factors in pitcher/lineups. Green assumes average team
|
| 8:19 |
Do you set which way the conversation scrolls? |
| 8:19 |
: I have no idea!
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| 8:19 |
It scrolled the other (better) way last night |
| 8:19 |
Does Yost know that he’s a manager and not a spectator?
|
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| 8:20 |
Is Chris Young secretly a reptile? He does this thing with his tongue… |
| 8:20 |
: This is all I can see now
|
| 8:20 |
The gray line is new, right? I’ve only seen the green one before and thought it was the opposite, with green factoring in projctions |
| 8:20 |
: Gray line debuted last year I believe
|
| 8:21 |
any chance the broadcast team gets into a discussion vis-à-vis ‘perceived velocity’?
|
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| 8:21 |
Is the gray line not on mobile or something? I’ve had that live graph open for every game in the playoffs and this is the first time I’ve seen it, but I’m usually on my phone |
| 8:22 |
: I don’t know. It’s possible it wasn’t working briefly. But it’s not a new feature
|
| 8:23 |
Cistulli, say something witty about TV commercials |
| 8:24 |
: I have nothing witty to say, but I’ve just noted this: the gentleman following his eBay auction via Apple Watch while also playing piano ought to use a sniping program.
|
| 8:25 |
What gray line? |
| 8:25 |
| 8:25 |
: And should also learn to ignore technology while practicing his craft.
|
| 8:25 |
Thanks. And what is the gray line? |
| 8:26 |
: The gray line is WE factoring in our pregame odds (based on projections of the players in the starting lineup)
|
| 8:26 |
anyone notice how bad Hosmer has been? at least a handful of dubious plays in field |
| 8:27 |
: Granted, I only see him 25-35 games a year, but sometimes he tries to play things off to the side when it isn’t needed.
|
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| 8:27 |
It really seems like we’re discussing the most boring sort of public transit |
| 8:27 |
: Take the gray line to the beige line. Fall asleep. Never wake up again.
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| 8:28 |
Do you think Chris Young the outfielder dressed like Chris Young the pitcher for Halloween? |
| 8:29 |
: Lot of the plate on 0-2 there.
|
| 8:29 |
The amount of plate the Mets have hit all playoffs on 0-2 and 1-2 has been infuriating |
| 8:29 |
I feel like that has been happening a bunch on 0-2, 1-2, any way to measure that?
|
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| 8:30 |
: Yes! Tell August Fagerstrom to do it. That’s the easiest way.
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| 8:30 |
: Very doable with some PITCHf/x-ing.
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| 8:30 |
Re: 0-2: The Mets were 4th in the league in 0-2 hits allowed during the regular season, though they also had the most 0-2 counts of any team. So maybe we’re just seeing more 0-2 hits because they’re getting ahead of so many hitters! |
| 8:31 |
: Gabe has unwisely introduced both (a) facts and (b) reason into this conversation.
|
| 8:31 |
: Frigging Gabe.
|
| 8:32 |
facts and reason are highly overrated |
| 8:32 |
Cistulli, I’m out of beer. What can you do about it? |
| 8:32 |
: Drink the boxed wine from on top of your refrigerator.
|
| 8:32 |
:
0-2 counts for Mets pitchers over this whole postseason — this actually does strike me as a lot of plate! Especially up. |
| 8:33 |
Owen, I’m pretty sure that’s a rorschach card. Not the Mets heatmap
|
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| 8:33 |
what do the colors mean? How the pitches were hit or the frequency of the location?
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| 8:34 |
: I’ll tell you what I see in it: my father telling me I’m not good enough.
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| 8:34 |
pitching over the plate 0-2 seems especially curious, given the research that shows the ump is more likely than he ought to be to call it a strike anyway |
| 8:34 |
: And batters will swing at more stuff, so don’t throw it over the plate
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| 8:35 |
Why are those heatmaps always from the catchers perspective? I feel like his perspective will be biased towards the pitcher since it’s his teammate. I’d rather them be from some neutral affiliates perspective. |
| 8:35 |
Would it have made more sense for the Mets to start deGrom in game 1 and Harvey in game 2? Their pitching ability is roughly the same but starting deGrom in game 1 would mean he also gets the game 5 start which means he’s home and gets to hit and he’s a much better hitting pitcher than Harvey. |
| 8:35 |
: I think there was some desire to pitch Harvey at home?
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| 8:35 |
: Why, I am not clear.
|
| 8:36 |
deGrom I believe was just about etting him some more rest
|
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| 8:37 |
: Zero IFFBs for Chris Young.
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| 8:38 |
I love that Chris Young is starting in this series full of young flamethrowers. |
| 8:39 |
: He’s also old enough, biologically speaking, to be their dad’s.
|
| 8:39 |
I know we’re only in the second and all, but this chat is really hitting its stride. Genuine laughter over here! (We’re on the internet so I wouldn’t have to be polite and fake laugh anyway) |
| 8:40 |
: Or “dads,” plural.
Their *respective” dads, is I think what I mean. |
| 8:40 |
: Regarding laughter, does anyone else never laugh out loud when alone? Or is that a weird thing about me?
|
| 8:41 |
I do for sure but that doesn’t mean it isn’t weird |
| 8:41 |
I laugh out loud sometimes when I’m alone |
| 8:41 |
If I’m alone, I probably laugh audibly only 10% of the amount I normally would. |
| 8:41 |
It is weird about you |
| 8:42 |
I’ll laugh out loud, but nowhere near as much as when i’m with people. |
| 8:42 |
I think “their dad” would be enough. |
| 8:43 |
: Laughing does seem typically to be a social act. Those among us without friends, we laugh into the void.
|
| 8:43 |
Sad but true Carson |
| 8:45 |
Matz has both weird arm-side movement and late opposite movement. Seems like the kind of thing a) seems more impressive than it is, b) leads to injuries, or c) both. |
| 8:45 |
Did the Royals really prefer Rios to Aoki? Giants got Aoki for real cheap. |
| 8:46 |
: Whatever the Royals’ mysterious player-evaluation methods, they seem to work.
|
| 8:46 |
: But yeah, Rios is making more than 2x what Aoki did this year.
|
| 8:46 |
But Rios wasn’t good this year.
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| 8:46 |
: Perhaps he magically improved his teammates?
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| 8:47 |
: Rios is a very interesting player. Overall has been very average, but highs and lows.
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| 8:47 |
Sorry for the non-WS question, but it’s at least about stats! If I were to compare stats from one season to the next, looking for correlation, what would be a good r^2 value to look for? Is there a point that that the number has to cross to be considered “good”? |
| 8:48 |
: The rule of thumb is crossing an r^2 of 0.5, but it’s really more complicated than that.
|
| 8:48 |
Starting in a World Series as a left-hander with only eight career starts? Totally different from doing the same thing as a right-hander. |
| 8:48 |
Carson, what sort of download/listen numbers do Fangraph Audios generate? |
| 8:49 |
: I find R-squared involving baseball stats to be lower than other subjects, for what it’s worth.
|
| 8:49 |
: I’m not privy to this information — or any other sort what would be considered “important to running a business.”
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| 8:50 |
: Unrelated: do you know anyone who lives in a tiny house like one of these: http://www.countryliving.co…?
They’re frigging adorable. |
| 8:50 |
: Oh my.
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| 8:50 |
: Oh, also: home run, Conforto.
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| 8:51 |
: Well that’s a way to wake up Conforto’s bat!
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| 8:51 |
Im sorry that was terrible
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| 8:52 |
: Statcast says 395, traveling 107. Must not be a lot of carry tonight
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| 8:52 |
My unpublished pun i mean. The hr was great |
| 8:54 |
I know they’ll likely lose Murphy and Cespedes, but will the Mets offense next year actually be better by virtue of full years from Wright, Conforto, and d’Arnaud?
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| 8:55 |
Murder. |
| 8:55 |
: Strong addition, Machetko.
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| 8:55 |
I feel your should always bring the infield in in situations like this. You guys agree managers don’t bring infield in enough? |
| 8:55 |
: Huh. Rios was weirdly surprised.
|
| 8:55 |
: Did he really forget? That’s inopportune.
|
| 8:56 |
Brain fart |
| 8:56 |
RIOS HELD THE BALLL!!!!! |
| 8:56 |
what the hell was that lackadaisical throw? |
| 8:56 |
forgot the outs? |
| 8:56 |
: Lots of people would say yes, but I think the infield comes in too often. Would like to have access to more robust data on the subject
|
| 8:56 |
: Woah! Appeal might really save Rios.
|
| 8:57 |
: This is very close.
|
| 8:57 |
: This has the potential to be a comedy of no fewer than two errors.
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| 8:57 |
Is there a better place to get the more complicated explanation? I’m trying to essentially self-teach myself to play around with stats, so any help is appreciated! Thanks guys!
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| 8:57 |
: Which, “A Comedy of No Fewer Than Two Errors”: not Shakespeare’s best play.
|
| 8:58 |
too close to overturn |
| 8:58 |
: Ty, you can contact me directly on Twitter @neilweinberg44 if you want to talk more about that stuff. We can trade emails
|
| 8:58 |
Need a side angle of 3b |
| 8:59 |
: Safe! (For those who aren’t watching or listening.)
|
| 8:59 |
|
| 8:59 |
Has an outfielder ever tried to deke a runner on third into leaving early by switching from a normal catch (above his head) to a basket catch (below the waist) at the last moment?
|
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| 8:59 |
: I love this idea so much.
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| 9:00 |
Rick…..comeon man |
| 9:00 |
: It’s frigging Gabe, again!
|
| 9:01 |
: The basket catch idea would help if the relevant fielder were really tall.
|
| 9:01 |
No, that was an impostor Gabe! I am the real frigging Gabe! |
| 9:01 |
: Ah, frig. Frigging impostor Gabe.
|
| 9:01 |
I am not an imposter, Gabe. I am Gabe 2.0 |
| 9:01 |
: Beta Gabe?
|
| 9:02 |
: By the way, 83% of respondents guessed Escobar would swing at first pitch. Which he did. And which was a curveball.
|
| 9:03 |
: This would be a good place for Murphy to get his bat going this series. Been quiet
|
| 9:04 |
: A half-IFFB! Infielder catching it in the outfield.
|
| 9:04 |
: Put it on the board!
|
| 9:08 |
is Fox using a camera that’s actually centered on home plate? |
| 9:08 |
: It seems *very* close to straight-on. Offset by just a few degrees, I think.
|
| 9:09 |
: Remember when the NL wild card game was in PIT and they didn’t use the normal angle?!
|
| 9:09 |
Zobrist at 37 career WAR and project for 4 next year. Applying 0.5 reduction per year puts him at about 53 WAR for his career. Would that get him into the Hall? |
| 9:09 |
: Sadly, I doubt he gets anywhere close. Not clear enough for big saber push, and too WAR-y for non saber support
|
| 9:10 |
What are you wearing, Cistulli? |
| 9:10 |
:
Enough said |
| 9:11 |
: So a mid inning non seq: I have an outlet in my home linked to a switch. So you turn the switch on and the outlet begins working ( i have a lamp plugged in). This week, the on/off reversed position with no explanation. What could have caused this?
|
| 9:12 |
There’s another switch in the house that controls the same outlet? |
| 9:12 |
witchcraft |
| 9:12 |
: I see merit in both answers.
|
| 9:13 |
: Oh my god, there is a switch in my apartment I have never used. Could someone have flipped it? Checking.
|
| 9:13 |
It’s weird how Fox’s regular camera is straight on and K-zone camera is distorted
|
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| 9:13 |
: It worked! Thank you, internet stranger
|
| 9:14 |
If not Zobrist, which player on the Mets or Royals has the best chance at the hall? Wright? |
| 9:14 |
: Gotta be Wright.
|
| 9:15 |
: Wright only needs about 10 wins to hit the 50-50 threshold.
|
| 9:15 |
: Or thereabouts.
|
| 9:15 |
: And while he’s been around forever, he is pretty young. And could get a huge narrative boost if he comes back from a SPINE injury
|
| 9:15 |
Wright is already at 52.9 WAR, according to fangraphs. |
| 9:16 |
Does Zobrist sign as a second baseman this offseason, or as a super utility player? |
| 9:16 |
: Still deserves a starting job, I’d think.
|
| 9:16 |
: Someone will sign him to play COF primarily but he’ll get lots of 2B time to facilitate some other platoon
|
| 9:17 |
:
Ben Zobrist: fifth-highest WAR among position players since 2009. |
| 9:18 |
: Future Tiger Ben Zobrist
|
| 9:18 |
: Harold can’t believe pull hitters pull outside pitches.
|
| 9:18 |
It’s amazing to me that a man can strike out Major League hitters throwing 87. |
| 9:19 |
Browsing Facebook between innings laughing at the people who had to take their stupid infants out for Haloween |
| 9:19 |
: It also suggests how great it’d be to have something like “apparent velocity” readily available.
|
| 9:20 |
Someone on the community page had a neat article breaking out position players’ skills within their WAR. The only two guys above average in all categories: Zobrist and Wright. |
| 9:20 |
: My brother in law’s kids were mario and luigi.
|
| 9:21 |
why do people insist that yoenis c is good?
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| 9:22 |
Also the CespedesBBQ account |
| 9:22 |
: He is good?
|
| 9:24 |
he’s not 100m good |
| 9:24 |
95 looks nice and easy from Matz….that’s a pretty motion. |
| 9:24 |
: Cespedes kick!
|
| 9:25 |
bingo |
| 9:25 |
That is literally booting it! |
| 9:26 |
Yoenis showing he’s a 3-sport athlete. Baseball, golf and now Soccer |
| 9:26 |
: With regard to Matz, though, the velocity is interesting: he’s not a physical guy. But he also doesn’t exhibit much effort.
|
| 9:26 |
So now we know Escobar is literally twice as fast as Perez |
| 9:26 |
: Cespedes is 100M good. $100M doesn’t buy you a superstar, it buys you a really good player, which Yo is.
|
| 9:27 |
It may be impossible to prove, but it seems like Cespedes boots the ball more than any other outfielder. |
| 9:27 |
: He has the ability to play center, but it seems like he’s not quite used to reading the ball off the bat from that spot. Rarely did that stuff in LF for Detroit this year
|
| 9:29 |
: Credit to Verducci for invoking phrase “high-leverage.”
|
| 9:29 |
: They don’t really have another pinch hitter. So not sure what the alternative is
|
| 9:30 |
: Although, this is pretty close to the highest-leverage moment of the game thus far.
|
| 9:31 |
I briefly passed out in my kitchen–how did the Royals score? |
| 9:31 |
: Cespedes kicked ball again. Followed by Gordon hit.
|
| 9:32 |
his use of “not-exactly high leverage” made me wonder what the LI was- does the FG win probability chart show the LI of the plate appearance anywhere before it’s completed?
|
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| 9:33 |
: Wait, I was wrong. LI was 1.18 for Morales PA. Not very high, actually.
|
| 9:33 |
I know a few people who live in tiny houses, and I live in a yurt. Answered. |
| 9:34 |
: Any manufacturers you’ve heard of, in particular? There are a bunch of them out there, seems.
|
| 9:34 |
right, after the guy hits/strikes out/whatever the LI from his appearance shows up. but it’s not shown during the PA, correct? |
| 9:34 |
: I’d say Morales only hitting a single with no real repercussions is something the Mets will accept happily.
|
| 9:34 |
: Yeah. The LI shows up once the PA is complete, it seems. But you can find a simple LI table that will tell you the basic numbers. Let me find you one
|
| 9:35 |
: This will do the trick. A tad less precise, but serviceable http://www.insidethebook.co…
|
| 9:36 |
Seems weird not to use Gomes when you know he’s going to face a lefty since Morales is a SH |
| 9:37 |
: Gomes is not on the roster
|
| 9:37 |
: Conforto Redux.
|
| 9:38 |
: A series, we seem to have.
|
| 9:38 |
Morales’ goatee shaped like something that would accept a Tetris piece. |
| 9:39 |
: There will be a Jeff Sullivan article about that home run, I can almost guarantee it.
|
| 9:39 |
I caught up to the chat! Hello, everyone. |
| 9:39 |
: If you only saw the swing, and not the ball, you would think single to RCF
|
| 9:41 |
Conforto’s wRC+ this postseason (besides tonight): 2 |
| 9:44 |
Arod had a really good quote about broadcasting–like going to Europe, lots of fun, but eventually you just want to go home. Surprising wit. |
| 9:44 |
: Huh. Seemed like a weirdly poor jump for Granderson on CS.
|
| 9:44 |
: Or that perhaps he stopped midway somehow.
|
| 9:45 |
Would either or you pick Matz as having the highest ceiling of the Mets four pitchers? |
| 9:47 |
: I wouldn’t, but I do think Matz will be very good.
|
| 9:47 |
: Syndergaard seems like the most obvious pick because of the velocity and size and youth.
|
| 9:47 |
: I wouldn’t either. I’d go Syndergaard.
|
| 9:47 |
: But betting on pitchers is a fool’s errand.
|
| 9:48 |
So hey….when do the bullpens come in? |
| 9:48 |
: One of them already is!
|
| 9:48 |
How much money has Ben Zobrist made this post season? haha |
| 9:48 |
: Not much. He was getting paid well before. Doubt the needle moves
|
| 9:49 |
Continuing….what else does Wright need to do to make the Hall? Third base is tough. |
| 9:49 |
So is the trick to beating the Royals in the postseason just to have a lefty or two that are really tough on lefties. I mean, it’s hard to start Matz over the Big 3, but given the way he’s pitched tonight and the way de Grom and Harvey pitched, who would you rather have pitching in two starts? |
| 9:50 |
: Don’t know what JAWS says specifically, but Wright can’t be *that* far away from at least being considered. Esp considering he’ll be just 33. A few three-win seasons and he has a shot.
|
| 9:50 |
: I assume they want to get him through Hosmer and Moose? Then go to a RHP?
|
| 9:50 |
: wanted*
|
| 9:51 |
my cable must be on delay, because Carson’s post came up literally 3 seconds after Granderson was gunned down
|
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| 9:51 |
I’d love to have Matz available for a couple innings in Game 7, between Thor and Familia. Not a bad trio. |
| 9:52 |
Magic alive and well… or 3rd time through the order… |
| 9:53 |
They just said Matz’s FB is second only to Sale
|
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| 9:55 |
Has anyone made a win expectancy graph for a full series? Weighting the WPA for each at bat in context of the whole series? I would enjoy that. |
| 9:56 |
: I thought I saw some of those out there this year?
|
| 9:56 |
Man, Cain loves that delayed steal. I have no idea how it ever works but it does. |
| 9:56 |
Do you agree with the stated purpose of JAWS: to increase the standard of the Hall? I’d rather see a more inclusive Hall, so while JAWS adds consistency and maybe sets a threshold above which someone needs to be in, I’m not with Jaffe entirely. A player shouldn’t have to be above the median at his position to be a serious candidate.
|
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| 9:57 |
: So much of the catcher’s throw depends on him knowing the runner is going before he catches the ball. It’s unexpected.
|
| 9:57 |
: With regard to HOF talk, a version of reality in which Lorenzo Cain played baseball as a young person would be interesting. He turns 30 next year and has a long way to go, but he’s developed into a fantastic ballplayer.
|
| 9:57 |
Mets are still winning and I feel like the game is out of hand… |
| 9:58 |
: Were I to have a rooting interest in a team, I would be terrified of the Royals as an opponent.
|
| 9:58 |
: Speaking as someone who roots for one of their direct competitors, they are not fun.
|
| 9:59 |
: A member of the crowd appears to have been summoned from the bleachers to pitch for the Mets.
|
| 9:59 |
: As an Oakland A’s fan, I still suffer from a stress disorder as a result of last year’s wild card game.
|
| 10:00 |
BART! |
| 10:01 |
Can anybody (hosts or chatters) think of the best example of the greatest disparity between great baseball player, horrible human? |
| 10:01 |
: I mean, Ty Cobb seems like a gimme?
|
| 10:02 |
Ty Cobb |
| 10:02 |
Ty Cobb |
| 10:02 |
Ty Cobb? Duh? |
| 10:02 |
Ty Cobb is the pretty obvious one |
| 10:02 |
Yep Ty Cobb |
| 10:03 |
: That’s a bad throw, but the extra base is on Murphy to some extent
|
| 10:03 |
Ugueth Urbina literally murdered a man…. |
| 10:03 |
: But he was only okay at baseball
|
| 10:05 |
: Ed Delahanty, worth more than 70 wins, was kicked off a train for drunkenly threatening passengers with a razor and then jumped off a bridge into Niagara Falls.
|
| 10:06 |
Let’s say Colon faces Perez 100 times. Over/under 1 walk? How many 3 ball counts? |
| 10:06 |
Ugueth Urbina: Younger than Bartolo Colon. Somehow. |
| 10:07 |
Alex Anthonopolous: Younger than Bartolo Colon |
| 10:07 |
: Woah. Colon. Rare not-fastball. Strong, strong pitch.
|
| 10:07 |
: Some of you missed the spirit of the question. You’re naming players who aren’t good people but commenter asked for biggest gap between baseball ability and quality of human.
|
| 10:07 |
BARRRRRRRRT! |
| 10:08 |
Kevin Cash is like 8 years younger than Bart. |
| 10:08 |
What’s it take to successfully steal home?
|
||||||
| 10:08 |
I love Colon’s stoicism, never looks like anything rattles him
|
||||||
| 10:08 |
Bartolo is bae |
| 10:09 |
: 2.35 LI on that Colon K of Perez. Third-highest of game.
|
| 10:11 |
Cap Anson has a career WAR of 91.2 and pretty much single handedly kept baseball segregated. |
| 10:12 |
: David Wright…
|
| 10:12 |
: Almost.
|
| 10:12 |
: Ohhhhh a #pitchergifs that was a fly out
|
| 10:13 |
We need a ratio of Quality Baseball Player/Quality human to see who’s high. I’m thinking we’ll call it Skill-Altruism-Ratio (SkAR). Stalin ranks very high on the scale because, while he wasn’t much of a ballplayer, he was quite awful at humanity. |
| 10:13 |
: In about one minute there will be a Sullivan GIF here
|
| 10:13 |
: You can’t divide by zero
|
| 10:17 |
: Have we done a WS mascot cagematch poll yet?
|
| 10:18 |
: Slugger appears to be a lion, but Mr. Met is an anthropomorphic baseball which is oddly terrifying for a child’s attraction
|
| 10:19 |
: I’m just going to say this: only one gets out alive
|
| 10:19 |
: Mr. Met polling very strongly in the early going!
|
| 10:20 |
I think Mr. Met’s is a psycho killer. Creepiest mascot in baseball. |
| 10:20 |
Question that came up while watching the game: if a pitcher blows out his arm and needs surgery, does he pay for it or the team? |
| 10:20 |
I like to imagine Mr. Met as a sort of Frankenstein-monster composed of the deceased flesh of other, smaller baseballs. And human legs. |
| 10:20 |
: Combo of worker’s comp and team. Player won’t pay anything if he’s under contract.
|
| 10:21 |
So do you go Familia for more than a inning and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow? |
| 10:21 |
: Yes.
|
| 10:21 |
By ratio Cobb or Anson or other old rascists must have it, but if we go by difference do Bonds, Ruth, Arod, or Clemens get it just based on how good they were at baseball? |
| 10:21 |
Ok Bronn, I just laughed out loud. And I’m by myself. |
| 10:22 |
: I think you have to consider the individual’s level of racism relative to the era.
|
| 10:23 |
: And perhaps also adjust for region of birth.
|
| 10:23 |
Racism+ |
| 10:23 |
: I think it’d be Racism-?
|
| 10:23 |
: Yeah, not to make light of it, but racism has to be adjusted for era to determine how awful it is.
|
| 10:24 |
Wow, that joke totally got lost without a plus sign at the end |
| 10:24 |
Fox just caught a 10-year-old Mets’ fan yelling “What the f— was that” on camera.
|
||||||
| 10:25 |
Granderson is like a hard-hit baseball magnet tonight.
|
||||||
| 10:26 |
Baring no other runs scored….is Familia coming in for 6? |
| 10:26 |
Familia in the eighth? |
| 10:26 |
Familia in the eighth? |
| 10:26 |
: He should be.
|
| 10:26 |
I only posted that once! |
| 10:27 |
: Good luck convincing a jury, Ian.
|
| 10:28 |
How many people are here tonight? Usually it’s a trick to get a comment in just the once. |
| 10:28 |
: Appears to be a couple hundred at the moment.
|
| 10:29 |
The lack of Terrance Gore stealing bases pretty much standing up has been very disappointing this post season. |
| 10:30 |
Carson—Any idea when there might be an update to the broadcast rankings?
|
||||||
| 10:30 |
Is Gore even on the World Series roster? I thought they replaced him w Mondesi.
|
||||||
| 10:30 |
Does it feel as if the mets are walking a fine line right now? Their middle relief isn’t their strong suit..
|
||||||
| 10:31 |
: You guys are missing your chance to learn about having in-laws who live in rural Michigan, given that Carson and I *both* have knowledge of such things.
|
| 10:32 |
: The sense of regret among the readers is palpable.
|
| 10:32 |
It’s like having the chance to study under both Plato and Aristotle. |
| 10:32 |
: Can confirm my regret.
|
| 10:33 |
As a lurker, a couple hundred on here, while accurate, feels disappointingly low. By which I mean both the analysis and color commentary, and the goofiness, add a lot to the experience of watching the game for me. Thanks for it. |
| 10:33 |
As a lurker, a couple hundred on here, while accurate, feels disappointingly low. By which I mean both the analysis and color commentary, and the goofiness, add a lot to the experience of watching the game for me. Thanks for it. |
| 10:34 |
: It is Saturday night and Halloween. But thanks!
|
| 10:34 |
Hello from Michigan! You should really visit more … |
| 10:34 |
: Agreed, thanks! This is really fun for us.
|
| 10:34 |
: I live here. Objectively the best state.
|
| 10:35 |
: With regard to Matt Dillon (just spotted in the crowd), I one time was behind him in line at a Gap in New York. He asked the clerk for a scarf. She said they had none. Dillon said, “Get outta town. No scarves?” and then left.
|
| 10:36 |
: I apologize to myself and everyone for typing out that anecdote.
|
||||||
| 10:37 |
: That is a very good anecdote.
|
| 10:38 |
Quality anecdote Carson. |
| 10:39 |
: What makes it a good anecdote is that you are a witness, rather than a participant. Too many anecdotes are about how cool the speaker is for doing a thing.
|
| 10:40 |
I was in front of Gary Busey once in line at Golden Corral. He went home hungry. |
| 10:41 |
: Did he get inexplicably angry?
|
| 10:41 |
Conforto on roster = WS birth? |
| 10:42 |
: Currently no way to disprove this theory
|
| 10:42 |
the Amazon Echo commercial just seems to be about how they invented a woman that doesn’t mind being interupted |
| 10:43 |
: SNL has to do a sketch where she yells at him for being so rude
|
| 10:43 |
Who is Matt Dillon? |
| 10:43 |
Rummy: Should I drop the 8 or 5 |
| 10:43 |
: 8
|
| 10:43 |
The eternal struggle of trying to open a second bag of haloween chips after your hands are greasy from the first one |
| 10:43 |
: Yikes
|
| 10:44 |
: And by ‘yikes’ I mean we’re all pulling for you
|
| 10:44 |
: Scissors. Don’t be a hero
|
| 10:45 |
It’s interesting how the Mets have the weaker bullpen, and also have 3 pitchers who were closers of their respective teams at one point this season. |
| 10:46 |
I finally opened it through a combination of teeth and prayer |
| 10:47 |
I do not like the idea of a best of 5 with having to face Harvey, DeGromm and Thor. |
| 10:47 |
: Observation: Tyler Clippard has recorded an ERA- 30 points lower than his xFIP- for his career.
|
| 10:48 |
: I am honestly a little worried about Harvey and especially deGrom, to be honest. Showing real signs of fatigue.
|
| 10:48 |
: He is one of the lower BABIP guys there is.
|
| 10:48 |
: This year, the gap was 60 points.
|
| 10:48 |
Underrated in sports: Rec Specs |
| 10:49 |
: True.
|
| 10:50 |
Whatever happened to Chris Sabo? That guy was fun.
|
||||||
| 10:51 |
Can you see Matz coming out of the bullpen in games 6and 7 to help that bridge to Familia?
|
||||||
| 10:52 |
TC has already said that’s a no-go with Matz |
| 10:54 |
: I am not a major league manager, but that struck me as one batter too long for Clippard
|
| 10:54 |
: L E V E R A G E
|
| 10:54 |
Great at bat by Cain. He really is maturing into a strong player. |
| 10:55 |
Pivotal moment of this series right here. |
| 10:56 |
: Please enjoy a 93 mph splitter now.
|
| 10:57 |
: Or, nevermind. Infinite movement on a 96 mph two-seamer.
|
| 10:57 |
ROYALS NEVER SAY DIE!!! |
| 10:57 |
: A Very Royals Series of Events just occurred.
|
| 10:57 |
: Oh my.
|
| 10:58 |
: Unreal.
|
| 10:58 |
Murphy’s Law |
| 10:58 |
That might undermine the “Murphy for MVP” narrative. |
| 10:58 |
Oh, THERES Daniel Murphy |
| 10:58 |
Anti-Buckner? |
| 10:59 |
holy hell 4.9 LI on Murphy’s error |
| 10:59 |
Familia is Brad Lidge-ing right now. |
| 10:59 |
: Two weak grounders isn’t a *terrible* result, however.
|
| 11:01 |
: That error, given the LI and series situation, probably the biggest play of the entire season. That will eat at you.
|
| 11:01 |
Kid blew another save. This is why you need to have a proven closer in there. |
| 11:02 |
Familia only has 7 Ks in 12 innings this postseason. SSS caveats obviously, but anyhting worth looking into? Pitch usage, etc.?
|
||||||
| 11:02 |
: I have been interested in an article idea for a while that looks at which teams are best at capitalizing on other team’s mistakes. It strikes me the Royals are quite good at that, if a team can be.
|
| 11:03 |
Let’s agree on something… Not sure Murphy would have made the play at first even if he had made the scoop
|
||||||
| 11:03 |
: This is an unlikely series of events right now.
|
| 11:04 |
Royals are like…. |
| 11:04 |
Gotta agree. Putting the ball in play = more chances to get mistakes from the other team. |
| 11:04 |
: That was pretty cool. Weird. But cool
|
| 11:04 |
: Daniel Murphy! Le flip.
|
| 11:04 |
: Yeah, gotta think they probably do better against teams with poor infield defense than other teams.
|
| 11:07 |
I know I’ve been harping on this since yesterday, but.. It seems Flores is the most steady infielder for the Mets, which may be their downfall, especially against the teams like Royals. |
| 11:08 |
In fairness, Wright is half paralyzed. |
| 11:08 |
: The V on Davis’s back is bluer, seems, than the other letters.
|
| 11:09 |
: And we all reflect about how miserable catching is.
|
| 11:09 |
Ow. |
| 11:11 |
I have been wondering, what does guys like Wade Davis going from mediocre starter to unhittable reliever make say about “legendary” closers like Mariano Rivera, Hoffman, etc? I cant imagine its anything good.
|
||||||
| 11:13 |
There’s being unhittable and there’s being unhittable for 15 years. Let’s talk when Davis is still doing this in his late 30s..
|
||||||
| 11:13 |
Would it possible to find out how this Royals team has done historically as far as winning games in which their probability of winning was below a certain threshold, say 15%, at some point in the game? (Does that make sense?) It seems like they’ve won a lot of such games.
|
||||||
| 11:13 |
Glen Perkins |
| 11:14 |
: Hey Carson, it appears as if the people are very much interested in bad starter to good reliever conversions during the world series! You lied to me!
|
| 11:14 |
: That’s not the only thing about which I’ve lied, Weinberg.
|
| 11:14 |
I’ll reach out to Shirtless George Brett anytime. I’d even give him the shirt off my…you know what I mean. |
| 11:16 |
Davis is kind of an interesting case, though, bc unlike most closers, he has three excellent pitches. Maybe they weren’t all as good when he was a starter, but he doesn’t fit the failed-starter-turned-reliever-bc-he -only-had-two-pitches profile.
|
||||||
| 11:18 |
Best RP in 2016: W Davis, Kimbrel, Chapman, pick em or Field?
|
||||||
| 11:19 |
: Are all these Mets fans sad because of their baseball team, or are they all just thinking about the cost of their respective rents?
|
| 11:20 |
Despite the announcers preaching about the Royals “never quitting” hard to say that other teams didnt just gift wrap the Royals a title. From the Astros in the ALDS, to Familia in Game 1 and Murphy now. Really hard to see this Royals team as some powerhouse that changes baseball
|
||||||
| 11:21 |
: Using Hansel Robles isn’t like conceding the game in reality, but it’s symbolically important. Why concede now?
|
| 11:21 |
San Francisco checking in. It’s the rent. |
| 11:21 |
: I assume the idea is to make sure you have as much Familia as possible tomorrow
|
| 11:22 |
: It’s all in the Familia, is what we’re saying
|
| 11:22 |
: Apologies, my inner dad briefly appeared.
|
| 11:22 |
: Wade Davis batting!
|
| 11:23 |
: Anyone have any potato chips? There are too few potato chips in this dumb house.
|
| 11:23 |
: Yes, but I assume there are many hundreds of thousands of bags between you and me
|
| 11:25 |
Even if the Royals have some identifiable trait that leads them to success I’m not sure how you would go about replicating it. It seems like a convergence of a whole lot of specific and hard to replicate things. Or maybe I’m drunk.
|
||||||||||||
| 11:27 |
Youre not drunk, youre right. I’m sick of hearing people talk about how we need to figure out how the Royals do it. They rely on epic collapses and untimely errors. This isnt some replicable skill
|
||||||
| 11:27 |
I refuse to believe that Dayton Moore has somehow figured out baseball that much. The Royals are good, but theyre not so amazing that we need to rethink baseball “good”. Theyve been very fortunate with some epic collapses.
|
||||||
| 11:28 |
They’re just copying the Giants.. Contact + Defense |
| 11:28 |
Giants also make a lot of contact. And their infield defense is excellent, which could explain success against Royals. Or it was just Mad Bum. |
| 11:28 |
: I don’t mean to play to type, but the Royals aren’t special. They’re just a good team.
|
| 11:29 |
: The Mets are batting. They require 2+ runs!
|
| 11:30 |
If you just never strike out and have a league average BABIP, you’re going to be making outs at a below average rate. That should be how you win games, right?
|
||||||
| 11:31 |
: Scary-ass, masked father and son.
|
| 11:31 |
I definitely buy the idea that they are very well suited to the playoff format. Doesn’t explain the regular season success though. |
| 11:32 |
Royals really had no business winning Game 4 ALDS. Would they still have been built for the playoffs if they lost that game?
|
||||||
| 11:33 |
how much of a sample size would we need to conclude that maybe the royals have a replicable clutch skill?
|
||||||
| 11:33 |
So when can we get back to the topic of relatives in rural Michigan? |
| 11:33 |
: An important topic!
|
| 11:34 |
What is the correlation to velocity off the bat to BABP
|
||||||
| 11:35 |
As a Yankees fan, I can now apologize greatly to all the fans that had to deal with “Yankees are clutch” arguments in the late 90s. So so sorry. |
| 11:35 |
: Intrigue!
|
| 11:35 |
Every team that wins a world series is clutch to a degree |
| 11:35 |
: Now the Mets have two hits. Two runners on. I’m typing this as if the reader has access to no other form of media — including the internet form of media.
|
| 11:36 |
My grandfather once boxed the Prime Minister of Canada. Sadly he did not live in rural Michigan. |
| 11:36 |
: Yes. The team that wins delivered in big moments, and a team has to win by definition.
|
| 11:36 |
Mets are clutcherer? |
| 11:36 |
My prime minister once boxed the grandfather of Canada. You don’t see me bragging. |
| 11:37 |
If Duda does anything but strike out, I will be in utter shock |
| 11:37 |
: Welp.
|
| 11:37 |
: That was a very Royals way to end a game, turns out.
|
| 11:37 |
Oh Cespedes! |
| 11:37 |
Shit. |
| 11:37 |
I’ll count that as shock. |
| 11:37 |
well Duda didn’t K |
| 11:38 |
Tootblan to end the game |
| 11:38 |
: Well. Ok!
|
| 11:38 |
: Huh. Either the Royals are going to win the World Series (weird) or the Mets are going to come back from 3-1 down (also weird).
|
| 11:39 |
Thanks Astros. Thanks a lot for making this all happen |
| 11:39 |
: Frigging Astros.
|
| 11:39 |
Is the series effectively over at this point? |
| 11:39 |
: And while we’re at it: frigging Gabe, right?
|
| 11:40 |
: There might only be one more baseball game. The horror.
|
| 11:40 |
: I know. This fact upsets me.
|
| 11:41 |
: Okay. Neil, Owen: you guys satisfied?
|
| 11:41 |
: Quite.
|
| 11:41 |
: I am, Mr. Cistulli!
|
| 11:42 |
: Alright. Let’s go to all our beds.
|
| 11:42 |
extra hour of sleep at least |
| 11:42 |
: Thanks everyone! It was great fun.
|
| 11:42 |
: This comment represents the last one of the chat. Thank you for participating. Return tomorrow for some other unfortunate group of FanGraphs employees.
Farewell! |
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
The moment I saw the word “weblog” in the title of this post on Twitter, I knew who today’s host would be.