2015 World Series Game Four Live Weblog

7:49
Carson Cistulli: This is the World Series Game Four Live Weblog. Please don’t hesitate to begin saying whatever you’ve come here to say.

7:50
Carson Cistulli: Perhaps consider this: what the over/under on infield fly balls induced by Chris Young? That seems like a moderately interesting question to contemplate.

7:52
Comment From tz
5. Or, one per inning pitched

7:55
Comment From Mayor McCheese
12

7:55
Comment From Jenstrom
I’ll say 3. And aren’t we lucky to chat with sexy Carson Cistulli!

7:57
Neil Weinberg: The price is also being required to chat with Owen and me.

7:58
Carson Cistulli: Neil! Hello!

7:58
Owen Watson: Good evening esteemed chatters and fellow panelists!

7:58
Neil Weinberg: Hi, Carson!

7:58
Carson Cistulli: And hello, Watson.

7:58
Owen Watson: Hello!

7:58
Neil Weinberg: The reader might not know that Carson had the audacity to tell me yesterday that the world might not be interested in Joe Blanton until next week.

8:00
Comment From Brinks
Good evening, is A Rod showing himself as a competent commentator thus far

    Owen Watson: I believe we can all say that he has shown himself to be more competent than certain other members of the broadcast team 

8:01
Carson Cistulli: “Evidence” seems to suggest that Young produced 1 IFFB per roughly every 4.0 IP this year.

8:02
Comment From a
DOES ESCOBAR SWING AT THE FIRST PITCH

    Carson Cistulli: Also an important question. Let us source the crowds. 

8:04
Comment From Miller
Escobar does not. Only because a batter finds it difficult to swing at pitches that are thrown behind them

8:04
Comment From tz
Joe Blanton would be more competent than certain members of the broadcast team

8:05
Neil Weinberg: The best pitcher, no doubt.

8:08
Comment From Siegmeyer of Catarina
The players should be required to play this game in costume

8:08
Neil Weinberg: I mean…uniforms are a type of costume.

8:09
Carson Cistulli: First pitch…

8:09
Carson Cistulli: Swing!

8:09
Carson Cistulli: Second pitch…

8:09
Carson Cistulli: Sort of swing!

8:09
Comment From Gordon
The first-pitch curve seems like a much better idea than up-and-in

8:10
Comment From Ken Rosenthals Pajamas
under/over 25 times “Halloween” said on the broadcast

    Owen Watson: Does this include Halloween puns? 

8:10
Comment From Miller

    Carson Cistulli: This is a video still from indie horror film It Follows, I believe. 

8:11
Neil Weinberg: The lack of depth to the bear’s face is unsettling.

    Carson Cistulli: It’s like an even scarier valley next to the uncanny one. 

8:11
Comment From Matt
Is it time to recognize that Alcides Escobar is a star player?

8:12
Neil Weinberg: Among all adult humans? Yes.

8:12
Comment From David Murphys Trimmer
If we power rank all the Long Island-*looking* people in sports, does Matz already fall in the top five?

8:13
Neil Weinberg: My mother will be upset to learn that he isn’t Jewish.

8:13
Comment From kevinthecomic
Matz looks like he could be Joe DiMaggio’s grandson

8:13
Carson Cistulli: Interference!

8:14
Comment From tz
Still shocked Conforto isn’t a Jersey boy. Washington state??

    Carson Cistulli: I was always surprised that Andy Pettitte was Texan, as well. 

8:15
Comment From Frogger
Why do the royals act like any up and in pith is some sort of personal affront?

    Carson Cistulli: Because they JUST CANT STAND PITH. 

8:16
Comment From Tango
Oops. Thought this was a WE blog.

8:16
Neil Weinberg: Luckily everyone who would get this joke is here.

8:18
Comment From BabeRuthless3
So the gray line that got added to the live WE graph is the WE without factoring in projections right? Just every game in that situation? While green is the normal one factoring in projections?

8:18
Neil Weinberg: Gray line factors in pitcher/lineups. Green assumes average team

8:19
Comment From Nathan
Do you set which way the conversation scrolls?

8:19
Carson Cistulli: I have no idea!

8:19
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
It scrolled the other (better) way last night

8:19
Comment From Dread
Does Yost know that he’s a manager and not a spectator?

    Owen Watson: This could’ve been said of both managers last night! 

8:20
Comment From Dread
Is Chris Young secretly a reptile? He does this thing with his tongue…

8:20
Neil Weinberg: This is all I can see now

8:20
Comment From BabeRuthless3
The gray line is new, right? I’ve only seen the green one before and thought it was the opposite, with green factoring in projctions

8:20
Neil Weinberg: Gray line debuted last year I believe

8:21
Comment From kevinthecomic
any chance the broadcast team gets into a discussion vis-Ă -vis ‘perceived velocity’?

    Owen Watson: They’ve had a few discussions about it in Game 1, just in different, less specific terms. 

8:21
Comment From BabeRuthless3
Is the gray line not on mobile or something? I’ve had that live graph open for every game in the playoffs and this is the first time I’ve seen it, but I’m usually on my phone

8:22
Neil Weinberg: I don’t know. It’s possible it wasn’t working briefly. But it’s not a new feature

8:23
Comment From Hell
Cistulli, say something witty about TV commercials

8:24
Carson Cistulli: I have nothing witty to say, but I’ve just noted this: the gentleman following his eBay auction via Apple Watch while also playing piano ought to use a sniping program.

8:25
Comment From Ben Kaspick
What gray line?

8:25
8:25
Carson Cistulli: And should also learn to ignore technology while practicing his craft.

8:25
Comment From Ben Kaspick
Thanks. And what is the gray line?

8:26
Neil Weinberg: The gray line is WE factoring in our pregame odds (based on projections of the players in the starting lineup)

8:26
Comment From blecch
anyone notice how bad Hosmer has been? at least a handful of dubious plays in field

8:27
Neil Weinberg: Granted, I only see him 25-35 games a year, but sometimes he tries to play things off to the side when it isn’t needed.

    Owen Watson: The Game 1 error was a howler, and exactly how you describe it! 

8:27
Comment From Gordon
It really seems like we’re discussing the most boring sort of public transit

8:27
Carson Cistulli: Take the gray line to the beige line. Fall asleep. Never wake up again.

8:28
Comment From Kevin
Do you think Chris Young the outfielder dressed like Chris Young the pitcher for Halloween?

8:29
Carson Cistulli: Lot of the plate on 0-2 there.

8:29
Comment From BabeRuthless3
The amount of plate the Mets have hit all playoffs on 0-2 and 1-2 has been infuriating

8:29
Comment From Frogger
I feel like that has been happening a bunch on 0-2, 1-2, any way to measure that?

    Owen Watson: Baseball Savant heatmaps! 

8:30
Carson Cistulli: Yes! Tell August Fagerstrom to do it. That’s the easiest way.

8:30
Neil Weinberg: Very doable with some PITCHf/x-ing.

8:30
Comment From Gabe
Re: 0-2: The Mets were 4th in the league in 0-2 hits allowed during the regular season, though they also had the most 0-2 counts of any team. So maybe we’re just seeing more 0-2 hits because they’re getting ahead of so many hitters!

8:31
Carson Cistulli: Gabe has unwisely introduced both (a) facts and (b) reason into this conversation.

8:31
Carson Cistulli: Frigging Gabe.

8:32
Comment From Harold Reynolds
facts and reason are highly overrated

8:32
Comment From Aaron
Cistulli, I’m out of beer. What can you do about it?

8:32
Carson Cistulli: Drink the boxed wine from on top of your refrigerator.

8:32
:

0-2 counts for Mets pitchers over this whole postseason — this actually does strike me as a lot of plate! Especially up.

8:33
Comment From Miller
Owen, I’m pretty sure that’s a rorschach card. Not the Mets heatmap

    Owen Watson: But what DOES IT MEAN 

8:33
Comment From Ben Kaspick
what do the colors mean? How the pitches were hit or the frequency of the location?

    Owen Watson: Frequency 

8:34
Carson Cistulli: I’ll tell you what I see in it: my father telling me I’m not good enough.

8:34
Comment From kevinthecomic
pitching over the plate 0-2 seems especially curious, given the research that shows the ump is more likely than he ought to be to call it a strike anyway

8:34
Neil Weinberg: And batters will swing at more stuff, so don’t throw it over the plate

8:35
Comment From Doug
Why are those heatmaps always from the catchers perspective? I feel like his perspective will be biased towards the pitcher since it’s his teammate. I’d rather them be from some neutral affiliates perspective.

8:35
Comment From Matt
Would it have made more sense for the Mets to start deGrom in game 1 and Harvey in game 2? Their pitching ability is roughly the same but starting deGrom in game 1 would mean he also gets the game 5 start which means he’s home and gets to hit and he’s a much better hitting pitcher than Harvey.

8:35
Neil Weinberg: I think there was some desire to pitch Harvey at home?

8:35
Neil Weinberg: Why, I am not clear.

8:36
Comment From BabeRuthless3
deGrom I believe was just about etting him some more rest

    Owen Watson: Right you are, BabeRuthless 

8:37
Carson Cistulli: Zero IFFBs for Chris Young.

8:38
Comment From Kevin
I love that Chris Young is starting in this series full of young flamethrowers.

8:39
Carson Cistulli: He’s also old enough, biologically speaking, to be their dad’s.

8:39
Comment From Wood
I know we’re only in the second and all, but this chat is really hitting its stride. Genuine laughter over here! (We’re on the internet so I wouldn’t have to be polite and fake laugh anyway)

8:40
Carson Cistulli: Or “dads,” plural.

Their *respective” dads, is I think what I mean.

8:40
Neil Weinberg: Regarding laughter, does anyone else never laugh out loud when alone? Or is that a weird thing about me?

8:41
Comment From Nathan
I do for sure but that doesn’t mean it isn’t weird

8:41
Comment From Ben Kaspick
I laugh out loud sometimes when I’m alone

8:41
Comment From mapsamountainrange
If I’m alone, I probably laugh audibly only 10% of the amount I normally would.

8:41
Comment From Section329
It is weird about you

8:42
Comment From Druidiful
I’ll laugh out loud, but nowhere near as much as when i’m with people.

8:42
Comment From Boo Urns
I think “their dad” would be enough.

8:43
Carson Cistulli: Laughing does seem typically to be a social act. Those among us without friends, we laugh into the void.

8:43
Comment From Nathan
Sad but true Carson

8:45
Comment From machetko
Matz has both weird arm-side movement and late opposite movement. Seems like the kind of thing a) seems more impressive than it is, b) leads to injuries, or c) both.

8:45
Comment From Ben Kaspick
Did the Royals really prefer Rios to Aoki? Giants got Aoki for real cheap.

8:46
Carson Cistulli: Whatever the Royals’ mysterious player-evaluation methods, they seem to work.

8:46
Carson Cistulli: But yeah, Rios is making more than 2x what Aoki did this year.

8:46
Comment From Pontoons
But Rios wasn’t good this year.

    Owen Watson: But he’s been good this postseason, which is very Royals 

8:46
Carson Cistulli: Perhaps he magically improved his teammates?

8:47
Neil Weinberg: Rios is a very interesting player. Overall has been very average, but highs and lows.

8:47
Comment From Ty
Sorry for the non-WS question, but it’s at least about stats! If I were to compare stats from one season to the next, looking for correlation, what would be a good r^2 value to look for? Is there a point that that the number has to cross to be considered “good”?

8:48
Neil Weinberg: The rule of thumb is crossing an r^2 of 0.5, but it’s really more complicated than that.

8:48
Comment From Azzed
Starting in a World Series as a left-hander with only eight career starts? Totally different from doing the same thing as a right-hander.

8:48
Comment From mapsamountainrange
Carson, what sort of download/listen numbers do Fangraph Audios generate?

8:49
Owen Watson: I find R-squared involving baseball stats to be lower than other subjects, for what it’s worth.

8:49
Carson Cistulli: I’m not privy to this information — or any other sort what would be considered “important to running a business.”

8:50
Carson Cistulli: Unrelated: do you know anyone who lives in a tiny house like one of these: http://www.countryliving.co…?

They’re frigging adorable.

8:50
Neil Weinberg: Oh my.

8:50
Carson Cistulli: Oh, also: home run, Conforto.

8:51
Owen Watson: Well that’s a way to wake up Conforto’s bat!

8:51
Comment From Siegmeyer of Catarina
Im sorry that was terrible

    Carson Cistulli: For roughly half the fans, it was. 

8:52
Neil Weinberg: Statcast says 395, traveling 107. Must not be a lot of carry tonight

8:52
Comment From Siegmeyer of Catarina
My unpublished pun i mean. The hr was great

8:54
Comment From Ryan
I know they’ll likely lose Murphy and Cespedes, but will the Mets offense next year actually be better by virtue of full years from Wright, Conforto, and d’Arnaud?

    Carson Cistulli: It’s hard to project not-injuries, though. 

8:55
Comment From machetko
Murder.

8:55
Carson Cistulli: Strong addition, Machetko.

8:55
Comment From Ben Kaspick
I feel your should always bring the infield in in situations like this. You guys agree managers don’t bring infield in enough?

8:55
Carson Cistulli: Huh. Rios was weirdly surprised.

8:55
Carson Cistulli: Did he really forget? That’s inopportune.

8:56
Comment From Siegmeyer of Catarina
Brain fart

8:56
Comment From tz
RIOS HELD THE BALLL!!!!!

8:56
Comment From xx
what the hell was that lackadaisical throw?

8:56
Comment From blecch
forgot the outs?

8:56
Neil Weinberg: Lots of people would say yes, but I think the infield comes in too often. Would like to have access to more robust data on the subject

8:56
Carson Cistulli: Woah! Appeal might really save Rios.

8:57
Neil Weinberg: This is very close.

8:57
Carson Cistulli: This has the potential to be a comedy of no fewer than two errors.

8:57
Comment From Ty
Is there a better place to get the more complicated explanation? I’m trying to essentially self-teach myself to play around with stats, so any help is appreciated! Thanks guys!

    Owen Watson: I usually just google things I don’t understand, but a good understanding of the way r^2 and p values interact is a good start. Also read the FG glossary (which you might do already) — Neil keeps it up updated because he’s awesome and it’s awesome: http://www.fangraphs.com/li… 

    Owen Watson: You could get a stats textbook, too. Always good to have on hand. 

8:57
Carson Cistulli: Which, “A Comedy of No Fewer Than Two Errors”: not Shakespeare’s best play.

8:58
Comment From Frogger
too close to overturn

8:58
Neil Weinberg: Ty, you can contact me directly on Twitter @neilweinberg44 if you want to talk more about that stuff. We can trade emails

8:58
Comment From Alex Rios
Need a side angle of 3b

8:59
Carson Cistulli: Safe! (For those who aren’t watching or listening.)

8:59
Comment From Miller

8:59
Comment From Rick
Has an outfielder ever tried to deke a runner on third into leaving early by switching from a normal catch (above his head) to a basket catch (below the waist) at the last moment?

    Owen Watson: This is an awesome but insane idea. 

8:59
Neil Weinberg: I love this idea so much.

9:00
Comment From Gabe
Rick…..comeon man

9:00
Carson Cistulli: It’s frigging Gabe, again!

9:01
Carson Cistulli: The basket catch idea would help if the relevant fielder were really tall.

9:01
Comment From Gabe
No, that was an impostor Gabe! I am the real frigging Gabe!

9:01
Carson Cistulli: Ah, frig. Frigging impostor Gabe.

9:01
Comment From Gabe
I am not an imposter, Gabe. I am Gabe 2.0

9:01
Carson Cistulli: Beta Gabe?

9:02
Carson Cistulli: By the way, 83% of respondents guessed Escobar would swing at first pitch. Which he did. And which was a curveball.

9:03
Owen Watson: This would be a good place for Murphy to get his bat going this series. Been quiet

9:04
Carson Cistulli: A half-IFFB! Infielder catching it in the outfield.

9:04
Owen Watson: Put it on the board!

9:08
Comment From Ben Kaspick
is Fox using a camera that’s actually centered on home plate?

9:08
Carson Cistulli: It seems *very* close to straight-on. Offset by just a few degrees, I think.

9:09
Neil Weinberg: Remember when the NL wild card game was in PIT and they didn’t use the normal angle?!

9:09
Comment From machetko
Zobrist at 37 career WAR and project for 4 next year. Applying 0.5 reduction per year puts him at about 53 WAR for his career. Would that get him into the Hall?

9:09
Neil Weinberg: Sadly, I doubt he gets anywhere close. Not clear enough for big saber push, and too WAR-y for non saber support

9:10
Comment From The Ghost of Dayn Perry
What are you wearing, Cistulli?

9:10
:

Enough said

9:11
Neil Weinberg: So a mid inning non seq: I have an outlet in my home linked to a switch. So you turn the switch on and the outlet begins working ( i have a lamp plugged in). This week, the on/off reversed position with no explanation. What could have caused this?

9:12
Comment From George Brett Saberhagen
There’s another switch in the house that controls the same outlet?

9:12
Comment From xx
witchcraft

9:12
Carson Cistulli: I see merit in both answers.

9:13
Neil Weinberg: Oh my god, there is a switch in my apartment I have never used. Could someone have flipped it? Checking.

9:13
Comment From David Murphys Trimmer
It’s weird how Fox’s regular camera is straight on and K-zone camera is distorted

    Carson Cistulli: During the regular season, the Mets feature an offset regular camera and AWESOME centered slow-motion replay camera. 

9:13
Neil Weinberg: It worked! Thank you, internet stranger

9:14
Comment From Tom
If not Zobrist, which player on the Mets or Royals has the best chance at the hall? Wright?

9:14
Neil Weinberg: Gotta be Wright.

9:15
Carson Cistulli: Wright only needs about 10 wins to hit the 50-50 threshold.

9:15
Carson Cistulli: Or thereabouts.

9:15
Neil Weinberg: And while he’s been around forever, he is pretty young. And could get a huge narrative boost if he comes back from a SPINE injury

9:15
Comment From Tom
Wright is already at 52.9 WAR, according to fangraphs.

9:16
Comment From Reverse Gabe
Does Zobrist sign as a second baseman this offseason, or as a super utility player?

9:16
Carson Cistulli: Still deserves a starting job, I’d think.

9:16
Neil Weinberg: Someone will sign him to play COF primarily but he’ll get lots of 2B time to facilitate some other platoon

9:17
:

Ben Zobrist: fifth-highest WAR among position players since 2009.

9:18
Neil Weinberg: Future Tiger Ben Zobrist

9:18
Neil Weinberg: Harold can’t believe pull hitters pull outside pitches.

9:18
Comment From Ian
It’s amazing to me that a man can strike out Major League hitters throwing 87.

9:19
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Browsing Facebook between innings laughing at the people who had to take their stupid infants out for Haloween

9:19
Carson Cistulli: It also suggests how great it’d be to have something like “apparent velocity” readily available.

9:20
Comment From tz
Someone on the community page had a neat article breaking out position players’ skills within their WAR. The only two guys above average in all categories: Zobrist and Wright.

9:20
Neil Weinberg: My brother in law’s kids were mario and luigi.

9:21
Comment From blecch
why do people insist that yoenis c is good?

    Owen Watson: Because he’s streaky, and when he’s on, he’s really good. Also, he has “tools”. 

9:22
Comment From Kevin
Also the CespedesBBQ account

9:22
Neil Weinberg: He is good?

9:24
Comment From blecch
he’s not 100m good

9:24
Comment From Ian
95 looks nice and easy from Matz….that’s a pretty motion.

9:24
Carson Cistulli: Cespedes kick!

9:25
Comment From blecch
bingo

9:25
Comment From Pliny the Fielder
That is literally booting it!

9:26
Comment From Gabe
Yoenis showing he’s a 3-sport athlete. Baseball, golf and now Soccer

9:26
Carson Cistulli: With regard to Matz, though, the velocity is interesting: he’s not a physical guy. But he also doesn’t exhibit much effort.

9:26
Comment From Alex Rios
So now we know Escobar is literally twice as fast as Perez

9:26
Neil Weinberg: Cespedes is 100M good. $100M doesn’t buy you a superstar, it buys you a really good player, which Yo is.

9:27
Comment From Boo Urns
It may be impossible to prove, but it seems like Cespedes boots the ball more than any other outfielder.

9:27
Neil Weinberg: He has the ability to play center, but it seems like he’s not quite used to reading the ball off the bat from that spot. Rarely did that stuff in LF for Detroit this year

9:29
Carson Cistulli: Credit to Verducci for invoking phrase “high-leverage.”

9:29
Neil Weinberg: They don’t really have another pinch hitter. So not sure what the alternative is

9:30
Carson Cistulli: Although, this is pretty close to the highest-leverage moment of the game thus far.

9:31
Comment From machetko
I briefly passed out in my kitchen–how did the Royals score?

9:31
Carson Cistulli: Cespedes kicked ball again. Followed by Gordon hit.

9:32
Comment From xx
his use of “not-exactly high leverage” made me wonder what the LI was- does the FG win probability chart show the LI of the plate appearance anywhere before it’s completed?

    Owen Watson: Pretty sure the LI shown on the WE charts is the initial leverage, so the leverage before the PA starts. 

9:33
Carson Cistulli: Wait, I was wrong. LI was 1.18 for Morales PA. Not very high, actually.

9:33
Comment From Ian
I know a few people who live in tiny houses, and I live in a yurt. Answered.

9:34
Carson Cistulli: Any manufacturers you’ve heard of, in particular? There are a bunch of them out there, seems.

9:34
Comment From xx
right, after the guy hits/strikes out/whatever the LI from his appearance shows up. but it’s not shown during the PA, correct?

9:34
Owen Watson: I’d say Morales only hitting a single with no real repercussions is something the Mets will accept happily.

9:34
Neil Weinberg: Yeah. The LI shows up once the PA is complete, it seems. But you can find a simple LI table that will tell you the basic numbers. Let me find you one

9:35
Neil Weinberg: This will do the trick. A tad less precise, but serviceable http://www.insidethebook.co…

9:36
Comment From Alex Rios
Seems weird not to use Gomes when you know he’s going to face a lefty since Morales is a SH

9:37
Neil Weinberg: Gomes is not on the roster

9:37
Carson Cistulli: Conforto Redux.

9:38
Neil Weinberg: A series, we seem to have.

9:38
Comment From kevin
Morales’ goatee shaped like something that would accept a Tetris piece.

9:39
Owen Watson: There will be a Jeff Sullivan article about that home run, I can almost guarantee it.

9:39
Comment From Ian
I caught up to the chat! Hello, everyone.

9:39
Neil Weinberg: If you only saw the swing, and not the ball, you would think single to RCF

9:41
Comment From Miller
Conforto’s wRC+ this postseason (besides tonight): 2

9:44
Comment From machetko
Arod had a really good quote about broadcasting–like going to Europe, lots of fun, but eventually you just want to go home. Surprising wit.

9:44
Carson Cistulli: Huh. Seemed like a weirdly poor jump for Granderson on CS.

9:44
Carson Cistulli: Or that perhaps he stopped midway somehow.

9:45
Comment From kevin
Would either or you pick Matz as having the highest ceiling of the Mets four pitchers?

9:47
Neil Weinberg: I wouldn’t, but I do think Matz will be very good.

9:47
Carson Cistulli: Syndergaard seems like the most obvious pick because of the velocity and size and youth.

9:47
Owen Watson: I wouldn’t either. I’d go Syndergaard.

9:47
Carson Cistulli: But betting on pitchers is a fool’s errand.

9:48
Comment From Ian
So hey….when do the bullpens come in?

9:48
Neil Weinberg: One of them already is!

9:48
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
How much money has Ben Zobrist made this post season? haha

9:48
Neil Weinberg: Not much. He was getting paid well before. Doubt the needle moves

9:49
Comment From Ian
Continuing….what else does Wright need to do to make the Hall? Third base is tough.

9:49
Comment From Duh
So is the trick to beating the Royals in the postseason just to have a lefty or two that are really tough on lefties. I mean, it’s hard to start Matz over the Big 3, but given the way he’s pitched tonight and the way de Grom and Harvey pitched, who would you rather have pitching in two starts?

9:50
Carson Cistulli: Don’t know what JAWS says specifically, but Wright can’t be *that* far away from at least being considered. Esp considering he’ll be just 33. A few three-win seasons and he has a shot.

9:50
Neil Weinberg: I assume they want to get him through Hosmer and Moose? Then go to a RHP?

9:50
Neil Weinberg: wanted*

9:51
Comment From Indymets
my cable must be on delay, because Carson’s post came up literally 3 seconds after Granderson was gunned down

    Carson Cistulli: Or I’m a prophet! (I’m not a prophet.) 

9:51
Comment From tz
I’d love to have Matz available for a couple innings in Game 7, between Thor and Familia. Not a bad trio.

9:52
Comment From TWB
Magic alive and well… or 3rd time through the order…

9:53
Comment From Indymets
They just said Matz’s FB is second only to Sale

    Carson Cistulli: This appears to be a true fact: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:55
Comment From Reverse Gabe
Has anyone made a win expectancy graph for a full series? Weighting the WPA for each at bat in context of the whole series? I would enjoy that.

9:56
Neil Weinberg: I thought I saw some of those out there this year?

9:56
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
Man, Cain loves that delayed steal. I have no idea how it ever works but it does.

9:56
Comment From Ian
Do you agree with the stated purpose of JAWS: to increase the standard of the Hall? I’d rather see a more inclusive Hall, so while JAWS adds consistency and maybe sets a threshold above which someone needs to be in, I’m not with Jaffe entirely. A player shouldn’t have to be above the median at his position to be a serious candidate.

    Owen Watson: I think HoF candidacy should take historic performance comparisons into account in addition to current performance comparisons. Whether that argues for more or less inclusion I don’t know. Probably more. 

9:57
Neil Weinberg: So much of the catcher’s throw depends on him knowing the runner is going before he catches the ball. It’s unexpected.

9:57
Carson Cistulli: With regard to HOF talk, a version of reality in which Lorenzo Cain played baseball as a young person would be interesting. He turns 30 next year and has a long way to go, but he’s developed into a fantastic ballplayer.

9:57
Comment From Ian
Mets are still winning and I feel like the game is out of hand…

9:58
Carson Cistulli: Were I to have a rooting interest in a team, I would be terrified of the Royals as an opponent.

9:58
Neil Weinberg: Speaking as someone who roots for one of their direct competitors, they are not fun.

9:59
Carson Cistulli: A member of the crowd appears to have been summoned from the bleachers to pitch for the Mets.

9:59
Owen Watson: As an Oakland A’s fan, I still suffer from a stress disorder as a result of last year’s wild card game.

10:00
Comment From Ian
BART!

10:01
Comment From Miller
Can anybody (hosts or chatters) think of the best example of the greatest disparity between great baseball player, horrible human?

10:01
Neil Weinberg: I mean, Ty Cobb seems like a gimme?

10:02
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
Ty Cobb

10:02
Comment From Gabe
Ty Cobb

10:02
Comment From Yefferson
Ty Cobb? Duh?

10:02
Comment From Druidiful
Ty Cobb is the pretty obvious one

10:02
Comment From Nathan
Yep Ty Cobb

10:03
Neil Weinberg: That’s a bad throw, but the extra base is on Murphy to some extent

10:03
Comment From Bronn
Ugueth Urbina literally murdered a man….

10:03
Neil Weinberg: But he was only okay at baseball

10:05
Carson Cistulli: Ed Delahanty, worth more than 70 wins, was kicked off a train for drunkenly threatening passengers with a razor and then jumped off a bridge into Niagara Falls.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wi…

10:06
Comment From Dr Evil
Let’s say Colon faces Perez 100 times. Over/under 1 walk? How many 3 ball counts?

10:06
Comment From Gabe 1.0
Ugueth Urbina: Younger than Bartolo Colon. Somehow.

10:07
Comment From tz
Alex Anthonopolous: Younger than Bartolo Colon

10:07
Carson Cistulli: Woah. Colon. Rare not-fastball. Strong, strong pitch.

10:07
Neil Weinberg: Some of you missed the spirit of the question. You’re naming players who aren’t good people but commenter asked for biggest gap between baseball ability and quality of human.

10:07
Comment From Ian
BARRRRRRRRT!

10:08
Comment From Duh
Kevin Cash is like 8 years younger than Bart.

10:08
Comment From George Brett Saberhagen
What’s it take to successfully steal home?

    Owen Watson: The pitcher not paying attention, to some extent. 

10:08
Comment From TWB
I love Colon’s stoicism, never looks like anything rattles him

    Carson Cistulli: That’s a product of being middle-aged, probably. 

10:08
Comment From Gabe
Bartolo is bae

10:09
Carson Cistulli: 2.35 LI on that Colon K of Perez. Third-highest of game.

10:11
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
Cap Anson has a career WAR of 91.2 and pretty much single handedly kept baseball segregated.

10:12
Carson Cistulli: David Wright…

10:12
Carson Cistulli: Almost.

10:12
Neil Weinberg: Ohhhhh a #pitchergifs that was a fly out

10:13
Comment From Bronn
We need a ratio of Quality Baseball Player/Quality human to see who’s high. I’m thinking we’ll call it Skill-Altruism-Ratio (SkAR). Stalin ranks very high on the scale because, while he wasn’t much of a ballplayer, he was quite awful at humanity.

10:13
Owen Watson: In about one minute there will be a Sullivan GIF here

10:13
Neil Weinberg: You can’t divide by zero

10:17
Owen Watson: Have we done a WS mascot cagematch poll yet?

10:18
Neil Weinberg: Slugger appears to be a lion, but Mr. Met is an anthropomorphic baseball which is oddly terrifying for a child’s attraction

10:19
Owen Watson: I’m just going to say this: only one gets out alive

10:19
Owen Watson: Mr. Met polling very strongly in the early going!

10:20
Comment From Duh
I think Mr. Met’s is a psycho killer. Creepiest mascot in baseball.

10:20
Comment From mockawaffle
Question that came up while watching the game: if a pitcher blows out his arm and needs surgery, does he pay for it or the team?

10:20
Comment From Bronn
I like to imagine Mr. Met as a sort of Frankenstein-monster composed of the deceased flesh of other, smaller baseballs. And human legs.

10:20
Neil Weinberg: Combo of worker’s comp and team. Player won’t pay anything if he’s under contract.

10:21
Comment From Dr Evil
So do you go Familia for more than a inning and worry about tomorrow, tomorrow?

10:21
Neil Weinberg: Yes.

10:21
Comment From Gordon
By ratio Cobb or Anson or other old rascists must have it, but if we go by difference do Bonds, Ruth, Arod, or Clemens get it just based on how good they were at baseball?

10:21
Comment From tz
Ok Bronn, I just laughed out loud. And I’m by myself.

10:22
Carson Cistulli: I think you have to consider the individual’s level of racism relative to the era.

10:23
Carson Cistulli: And perhaps also adjust for region of birth.

10:23
Comment From Gordon
Racism+

10:23
Owen Watson: I think it’d be Racism-?

10:23
Neil Weinberg: Yeah, not to make light of it, but racism has to be adjusted for era to determine how awful it is.

10:24
Comment From Gordon
Wow, that joke totally got lost without a plus sign at the end

10:24
Comment From Duh
Fox just caught a 10-year-old Mets’ fan yelling “What the f— was that” on camera.

    Carson Cistulli: While the parents might not care for it, swearing children are a great pleasure for strangers. 

10:25
Comment From Duh
Granderson is like a hard-hit baseball magnet tonight.

    Carson Cistulli: Except when Flores is, it would seem. 

10:26
Comment From Gabe
Baring no other runs scored….is Familia coming in for 6?

10:26
Comment From Ian
Familia in the eighth?

10:26
Comment From Ian
Familia in the eighth?

10:26
Neil Weinberg: He should be.

10:26
Comment From Ian
I only posted that once!

10:27
Neil Weinberg: Good luck convincing a jury, Ian.

10:28
Comment From Ian
How many people are here tonight? Usually it’s a trick to get a comment in just the once.

10:28
Neil Weinberg: Appears to be a couple hundred at the moment.

10:29
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
The lack of Terrance Gore stealing bases pretty much standing up has been very disappointing this post season.

10:30
Comment From Gabe 1.0
Carson—Any idea when there might be an update to the broadcast rankings?

    Carson Cistulli: Probably about a month into the 2016 season. You’re right, though: the current numbers are getting outdated. 

10:30
Comment From Duh
Is Gore even on the World Series roster? I thought they replaced him w Mondesi.

    Carson Cistulli: You are correct, sir. (Or ma’am.) 

10:30
Comment From Xmx
Does it feel as if the mets are walking a fine line right now? Their middle relief isn’t their strong suit..

    Owen Watson: Yes, and I think this was always going to be the case. 

10:31
Neil Weinberg: You guys are missing your chance to learn about having in-laws who live in rural Michigan, given that Carson and I *both* have knowledge of such things.

10:32
Carson Cistulli: The sense of regret among the readers is palpable.

10:32
Comment From George Brett Saberhagen
It’s like having the chance to study under both Plato and Aristotle.

10:32
Owen Watson: Can confirm my regret.

10:33
Comment From howie
As a lurker, a couple hundred on here, while accurate, feels disappointingly low. By which I mean both the analysis and color commentary, and the goofiness, add a lot to the experience of watching the game for me. Thanks for it.

10:33
Comment From howie
As a lurker, a couple hundred on here, while accurate, feels disappointingly low. By which I mean both the analysis and color commentary, and the goofiness, add a lot to the experience of watching the game for me. Thanks for it.

10:34
Neil Weinberg: It is Saturday night and Halloween. But thanks!

10:34
Comment From Brett W
Hello from Michigan! You should really visit more …

10:34
Owen Watson: Agreed, thanks! This is really fun for us.

10:34
Neil Weinberg: I live here. Objectively the best state.

10:35
Carson Cistulli: With regard to Matt Dillon (just spotted in the crowd), I one time was behind him in line at a Gap in New York. He asked the clerk for a scarf. She said they had none. Dillon said, “Get outta town. No scarves?” and then left.

10:36
Carson Cistulli: I apologize to myself and everyone for typing out that anecdote.

    Owen Watson: If it makes you feel better, I read it out loud and everyone in the room loved it. 

10:37
Neil Weinberg: That is a very good anecdote.

10:38
Comment From Jenstrom
Quality anecdote Carson.

10:39
Neil Weinberg: What makes it a good anecdote is that you are a witness, rather than a participant. Too many anecdotes are about how cool the speaker is for doing a thing.

10:40
Comment From Shirtless Bartolo Colon
I was in front of Gary Busey once in line at Golden Corral. He went home hungry.

10:41
Owen Watson: Did he get inexplicably angry?

10:41
Comment From Gonny Jomes
Conforto on roster = WS birth?

10:42
Neil Weinberg: Currently no way to disprove this theory

10:42
Comment From TWB
the Amazon Echo commercial just seems to be about how they invented a woman that doesn’t mind being interupted

10:43
Neil Weinberg: SNL has to do a sketch where she yells at him for being so rude

10:43
Comment From Gabe
Who is Matt Dillon?

10:43
Comment From A eskpert
Rummy: Should I drop the 8 or 5

10:43
Neil Weinberg: 8

10:43
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
The eternal struggle of trying to open a second bag of haloween chips after your hands are greasy from the first one

10:43
Owen Watson: Yikes

10:44
Owen Watson: And by ‘yikes’ I mean we’re all pulling for you

10:44
Neil Weinberg: Scissors. Don’t be a hero

10:45
Comment From Reverse Gabe
It’s interesting how the Mets have the weaker bullpen, and also have 3 pitchers who were closers of their respective teams at one point this season.

10:46
Comment From Sgt. Pepper
I finally opened it through a combination of teeth and prayer

10:47
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
I do not like the idea of a best of 5 with having to face Harvey, DeGromm and Thor.

10:47
Carson Cistulli: Observation: Tyler Clippard has recorded an ERA- 30 points lower than his xFIP- for his career.

10:48
Owen Watson: I am honestly a little worried about Harvey and especially deGrom, to be honest. Showing real signs of fatigue.

10:48
Neil Weinberg: He is one of the lower BABIP guys there is.

10:48
Carson Cistulli: This year, the gap was 60 points.

10:48
Comment From Gonny Jomes
Underrated in sports: Rec Specs

10:49
Carson Cistulli: True.

10:50
Comment From Ian
Whatever happened to Chris Sabo? That guy was fun.

    Carson Cistulli: Injury, mostly.

Notable: Chris Sabo debuted in his age-26 season. Produced five wins that year. 

10:51
Comment From Xmx
Can you see Matz coming out of the bullpen in games 6and 7 to help that bridge to Familia?

    Carson Cistulli: Without my rec specs, I can’t see anything. 

10:52
Comment From Gabe
TC has already said that’s a no-go with Matz

10:54
Owen Watson: I am not a major league manager, but that struck me as one batter too long for Clippard

10:54
Neil Weinberg: L E V E R A G E

10:54
Comment From Gary Street
Great at bat by Cain. He really is maturing into a strong player.

10:55
Comment From Ben Kaspick
Pivotal moment of this series right here.

10:56
Carson Cistulli: Please enjoy a 93 mph splitter now.

10:57
Carson Cistulli: Or, nevermind. Infinite movement on a 96 mph two-seamer.

10:57
Comment From George Brett Saberhagen
ROYALS NEVER SAY DIE!!!

10:57
Carson Cistulli: A Very Royals Series of Events just occurred.

10:57
Neil Weinberg: Oh my.

10:58
Owen Watson: Unreal.

10:58
Comment From tz
Murphy’s Law

10:58
Comment From Ian
That might undermine the “Murphy for MVP” narrative.

10:58
Comment From Phillies113
Oh, THERES Daniel Murphy

10:58
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
Anti-Buckner?

10:59
Comment From xx
holy hell 4.9 LI on Murphy’s error

10:59
Comment From George Brett Saberhagen
Familia is Brad Lidge-ing right now.

10:59
Carson Cistulli: Two weak grounders isn’t a *terrible* result, however.

11:01
Neil Weinberg: That error, given the LI and series situation, probably the biggest play of the entire season. That will eat at you.

11:01
Comment From Matt Williams
Kid blew another save. This is why you need to have a proven closer in there.

11:02
Comment From Pablo Sandovals Negative WAR
Familia only has 7 Ks in 12 innings this postseason. SSS caveats obviously, but anyhting worth looking into? Pitch usage, etc.?

    Carson Cistulli: He seems to have traded in some whiffs for grounders. Can’t say at moment if it’s randomness or pitch usage. 

11:02
Owen Watson: I have been interested in an article idea for a while that looks at which teams are best at capitalizing on other team’s mistakes. It strikes me the Royals are quite good at that, if a team can be.

11:03
Comment From Bender
Let’s agree on something… Not sure Murphy would have made the play at first even if he had made the scoop

    Carson Cistulli: I refuse to agree! 

11:03
Carson Cistulli: This is an unlikely series of events right now.

11:04
Comment From Shirtless George Brett

Royals are like….

11:04
Comment From tz
Gotta agree. Putting the ball in play = more chances to get mistakes from the other team.

11:04
Neil Weinberg: That was pretty cool. Weird. But cool

11:04
Carson Cistulli: Daniel Murphy! Le flip.

11:04
Owen Watson: Yeah, gotta think they probably do better against teams with poor infield defense than other teams.

11:07
Comment From CJ
I know I’ve been harping on this since yesterday, but.. It seems Flores is the most steady infielder for the Mets, which may be their downfall, especially against the teams like Royals.

11:08
Comment From Ian
In fairness, Wright is half paralyzed.

11:08
Carson Cistulli: The V on Davis’s back is bluer, seems, than the other letters.

11:09
Carson Cistulli: And we all reflect about how miserable catching is.

11:09
Comment From Ian
Ow.

11:11
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
I have been wondering, what does guys like Wade Davis going from mediocre starter to unhittable reliever make say about “legendary” closers like Mariano Rivera, Hoffman, etc? I cant imagine its anything good.

    Carson Cistulli: Rivera began as a starter, wasn’t particularly great in that role. Joe Nathan, also Probably many other guys, also-also. 

11:13
Comment From Anus McGrundleburger
There’s being unhittable and there’s being unhittable for 15 years. Let’s talk when Davis is still doing this in his late 30s..

    Carson Cistulli: Are you really going to reach out to Shirtless George Brett in 10 years? Because, that’d be heartwarming, actually, if you followed through on it. 

11:13
Comment From Boo Urns
Would it possible to find out how this Royals team has done historically as far as winning games in which their probability of winning was below a certain threshold, say 15%, at some point in the game? (Does that make sense?) It seems like they’ve won a lot of such games.

    Owen Watson: It would indeed! And it would be a very interesting article idea. 

11:13
Comment From Reverse Gabe
Glen Perkins

11:14
Neil Weinberg: Hey Carson, it appears as if the people are very much interested in bad starter to good reliever conversions during the world series! You lied to me!

11:14
Carson Cistulli: That’s not the only thing about which I’ve lied, Weinberg.

11:14
Comment From Shirtless Bartolo Colon
I’ll reach out to Shirtless George Brett anytime. I’d even give him the shirt off my…you know what I mean.

11:16
Comment From Duh
Davis is kind of an interesting case, though, bc unlike most closers, he has three excellent pitches. Maybe they weren’t all as good when he was a starter, but he doesn’t fit the failed-starter-turned-reliever-bc-he -only-had-two-pitches profile.

    Carson Cistulli: Yeah, I think Davis benefits much more from the velo bump. His fastball increases by, like, 3 mph. That’s more robust than most starter-reliever converts. 

11:18
Comment From Mark+Wohlers+1996
Best RP in 2016: W Davis, Kimbrel, Chapman, pick em or Field?

    Carson Cistulli: Field. Although my level of conviction is quite low. 

11:19
Carson Cistulli: Are all these Mets fans sad because of their baseball team, or are they all just thinking about the cost of their respective rents?

11:20
Comment From The Hamburglar
Despite the announcers preaching about the Royals “never quitting” hard to say that other teams didnt just gift wrap the Royals a title. From the Astros in the ALDS, to Familia in Game 1 and Murphy now. Really hard to see this Royals team as some powerhouse that changes baseball

    Owen Watson: Though I agree two years is quite a small sample, the Royals have been consistently good in important playoff situations. There’s something to that, I think, and we’re trying to figure out what it is. Contact? Not striking out? Bullpen? Luck? There’s something there. 

11:21
Carson Cistulli: Using Hansel Robles isn’t like conceding the game in reality, but it’s symbolically important. Why concede now?

11:21
Comment From Ben Kaspick
San Francisco checking in. It’s the rent.

11:21
Neil Weinberg: I assume the idea is to make sure you have as much Familia as possible tomorrow

11:22
Owen Watson: It’s all in the Familia, is what we’re saying

11:22
Owen Watson: Apologies, my inner dad briefly appeared.

11:22
Neil Weinberg: Wade Davis batting!

11:23
Carson Cistulli: Anyone have any potato chips? There are too few potato chips in this dumb house.

11:23
Neil Weinberg: Yes, but I assume there are many hundreds of thousands of bags between you and me

11:25
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
Even if the Royals have some identifiable trait that leads them to success I’m not sure how you would go about replicating it. It seems like a convergence of a whole lot of specific and hard to replicate things. Or maybe I’m drunk.

    Carson Cistulli: Both things can be true. It can be hard to replicate and also you’re drunk. 

    Carson Cistulli: I’d guess that their ability to make contact is of some benefit. I don’t know *how* precisely, but it probably figures in. Maybe. Probably. 

11:27
Comment From The Hamburglar
Youre not drunk, youre right. I’m sick of hearing people talk about how we need to figure out how the Royals do it. They rely on epic collapses and untimely errors. This isnt some replicable skill

    Carson Cistulli: Dude. He’s definitely drunk. 

11:27
Comment From The Hamburglar
I refuse to believe that Dayton Moore has somehow figured out baseball that much. The Royals are good, but theyre not so amazing that we need to rethink baseball “good”. Theyve been very fortunate with some epic collapses.

    Owen Watson: I think you’re right, but I also think they are well suited to the format of the playoffs, and in both making teams make mistakes and capitalizing on them. 

11:28
Comment From Gonny Jomes
They’re just copying the Giants.. Contact + Defense

11:28
Comment From Ben Kaspick
Giants also make a lot of contact. And their infield defense is excellent, which could explain success against Royals. Or it was just Mad Bum.

11:28
Neil Weinberg: I don’t mean to play to type, but the Royals aren’t special. They’re just a good team.

11:29
Carson Cistulli: The Mets are batting. They require 2+ runs!

11:30
Comment From Reverse Gabe
If you just never strike out and have a league average BABIP, you’re going to be making outs at a below average rate. That should be how you win games, right?

    Carson Cistulli: That’s part of it. Sort of. But then there’s the question of power. Power and walk rate tend to be strongly correlated. 

11:31
Carson Cistulli: Scary-ass, masked father and son.

11:31
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
I definitely buy the idea that they are very well suited to the playoff format. Doesn’t explain the regular season success though.

11:32
Comment From Ben Kaspick
Royals really had no business winning Game 4 ALDS. Would they still have been built for the playoffs if they lost that game?

    Owen Watson: But they didn’t, which makes people believe that there’s something to them, and is the reason why we’re here. 

11:33
Comment From cruisinfm
how much of a sample size would we need to conclude that maybe the royals have a replicable clutch skill?

    Carson Cistulli: More than is possible. 

11:33
Comment From George Brett Saberhagen
So when can we get back to the topic of relatives in rural Michigan?

11:33
Neil Weinberg: An important topic!

11:34
Comment From Ready to play CF
What is the correlation to velocity off the bat to BABP

    Carson Cistulli: High! Batted-ball type matters, too. 

11:35
Comment From The Hamburglar
As a Yankees fan, I can now apologize greatly to all the fans that had to deal with “Yankees are clutch” arguments in the late 90s. So so sorry.

11:35
Neil Weinberg: Intrigue!

11:35
Comment From Siegmeyer of Catarina
Every team that wins a world series is clutch to a degree

11:35
Carson Cistulli: Now the Mets have two hits. Two runners on. I’m typing this as if the reader has access to no other form of media — including the internet form of media.

11:36
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
My grandfather once boxed the Prime Minister of Canada. Sadly he did not live in rural Michigan.

11:36
Neil Weinberg: Yes. The team that wins delivered in big moments, and a team has to win by definition.

11:36
Comment From Bronn
Mets are clutcherer?

11:36
Comment From machetko
My prime minister once boxed the grandfather of Canada. You don’t see me bragging.

11:37
Comment From The Hamburglar
If Duda does anything but strike out, I will be in utter shock

11:37
Neil Weinberg: Welp.

11:37
Carson Cistulli: That was a very Royals way to end a game, turns out.

11:37
Comment From Shirtless George Brett
Oh Cespedes!

11:37
Comment From Wilma Flowers
Shit.

11:37
Comment From Justin
I’ll count that as shock.

11:37
Comment From xx
well Duda didn’t K

11:38
Comment From Siegmeyer of Catarina
Tootblan to end the game

11:38
Owen Watson: Well. Ok!

11:38
Carson Cistulli: Huh. Either the Royals are going to win the World Series (weird) or the Mets are going to come back from 3-1 down (also weird).

11:39
Comment From The Hamburglar
Thanks Astros. Thanks a lot for making this all happen

11:39
Carson Cistulli: Frigging Astros.

11:39
Comment From Phillies113
Is the series effectively over at this point?

11:39
Carson Cistulli: And while we’re at it: frigging Gabe, right?

11:40
Neil Weinberg: There might only be one more baseball game. The horror.

11:40
Owen Watson: I know. This fact upsets me.

11:41
Carson Cistulli: Okay. Neil, Owen: you guys satisfied?

11:41
Neil Weinberg: Quite.

11:41
Owen Watson: I am, Mr. Cistulli!

11:42
Carson Cistulli: Alright. Let’s go to all our beds.

11:42
Comment From cruisinfm
extra hour of sleep at least

11:42
Owen Watson: Thanks everyone! It was great fun.

11:42
Carson Cistulli: This comment represents the last one of the chat. Thank you for participating. Return tomorrow for some other unfortunate group of FanGraphs employees.

Farewell!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Shyam
8 years ago

The moment I saw the word “weblog” in the title of this post on Twitter, I knew who today’s host would be.