2015 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
This is a strong and curiously diverse Dodgers team. Among even just the starting eight one finds young stars (Yasiel Puig) and older stars (Adrian Gonzalez); stars who’ve aged surprisingly well (Jimmy Rollins) and stars who’ve aged less well (Carl Crawford); veterans who probably merit greater acclaim (Howie Kendrick) and also whatever Juan Uribe is. While diverse, the starters are uniform by one standard — namely, the likelihood that they’ll produce wins at an average rate or better.

Of some interest is the (likely) platoon in left field of Crawford and Scott Van Slyke. The latter, despite a huge body, has produced slightly above-average fielding numbers in the corner outfield and is projected to do so again in 2015. It’s with some combination of great vengeance and furious anger, as well, that he has punished left-handed pitchers, recording a 151 wRC+ over about 200 career plate appearances against them. No player — in particular, no player who lost his rookie eligibility as a 26-year-old — ought really to be expected to continue hitting at a rate 50% better than league average. His success against lefties, however, at least helps to explain how ZiPS forecasts him to produce the second-highest wOBA on the club.

Pitchers
Many projections would prove difficult to calculate manually. One must account for changes in home park, minor-league data, partial seasons, whatever. Less difficult to calculate manually, one assumes, is Clayton Kershaw’s projection. Over the last four years — in each of which he’s recorded at least 198 innings — the lowest strikeout rate he’s produced is 25.0%; the highest walk rate, 7.0%. Those are essentially his baselines for the time being.

Of probably greater note is how ZiPS has contended both with Brett Anderson and Brandon McCarthy. In the case of the latter, it’s no surprise to find a conservative innings projection. The latter, meanwhile, is expected to retain almost all of the improvements featured in his strikeout rate. What else he’s expected to retain, however, is the large-ish difference between his FIP and ERA — which hurts his projected WAR total as a result.

Bench/Prospects
Joc Pederson has played 18 games ever in the majors. Joc Pederson is expected, also, to produce the third-most wins among Dodger batters. It’s not a typical arrangement, that, but also likely the product of the Dodgers’ outfield glut over the last couple years. Without it, Pederson almost certainly wouldn’t be entering the 2015 season with his rookie-eligibility intact. Also notable among Dodgers prospects is how two of them, Austin Barnes and Enrique Hernandez, both (a) are projected to produce a 2.0 WAR or better and also (b) were acquired in the deal that sent Dee Gordon and Dan Haren to Miami. No ZiPS projection exists for Gordon yet, but Steamer forecasts him to record merely a 1.0 WAR in 661 plate appearances.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yasiel Puig	R	24	RF	656	102	169	35	8	22	85	15	9
Howie Kendrick	R	31	2B	609	72	163	29	5	11	73	12	5
Joc Pederson	L	23	CF	573	80	120	17	4	22	73	20	8
Adrian Gonzalez	L	33	1B	642	76	161	34	1	22	111	1	0
Yasmani Grandal	B	26	C	381	51	80	17	1	13	55	1	0
Jimmy Rollins	B	36	SS	585	74	129	24	3	14	56	21	6
Scott Van Slyke	R	28	LF	388	49	89	20	1	14	52	6	3
Juan Uribe	R	36	3B	343	33	84	16	1	8	48	1	1
Austin Barnes	R	25	C	542	63	116	20	3	9	54	6	2
Enrique Hernandez	R	23	2B	552	63	130	24	5	12	60	5	4
Alex Guerrero	R	28	2B	527	64	122	19	3	15	69	2	3
A.J. Ellis	R	34	C	393	34	76	14	1	7	45	0	1
Justin Turner	R	30	3B	319	36	84	18	1	5	37	4	1
Corey Seager	L	21	SS	519	61	116	26	3	16	69	6	3
Darwin Barney	R	29	2B	456	46	98	21	2	6	44	4	1
Carl Crawford	L	33	LF	385	55	100	17	4	7	45	15	5
Andre Ethier	L	33	RF	472	50	109	23	3	9	61	2	2
Kyle Farmer	R	24	C	345	32	81	16	2	2	32	6	3
Miguel Olivo	R	36	C	228	25	49	9	2	10	31	2	2
Chris Heisey	R	30	LF	308	38	68	14	2	8	31	6	2
Daniel Mayora	R	29	3B	567	58	129	21	2	6	52	6	4
Scott Schebler	L	24	LF	567	68	120	21	8	17	71	9	5
Darnell Sweeney	B	24	2B	542	60	113	22	5	10	55	18	13
Chone Figgins	B	37	3B	164	15	30	5	1	0	6	6	3
Alex Liddi	R	26	3B	463	54	92	18	3	14	54	6	4
Brendan Harris	R	34	3B	221	22	45	9	1	4	19	0	1
Ryan Adams	R	28	2B	292	27	62	15	1	4	26	2	2
Angel Sanchez	R	31	SS	247	24	52	7	1	2	20	1	1
Jeremy Hazelbaker	L	27	RF	476	46	99	13	5	10	45	24	8
Mike Baxter	L	30	RF	375	41	76	16	5	4	31	7	4
O’Koyea Dickson	R	25	1B	518	58	114	24	2	13	61	5	5
J.C. Boscan	R	35	C	200	15	35	7	0	1	12	1	0
Brian Cavazos-Galvez	R	28	RF	352	36	80	14	2	7	37	7	4
Erisbel Arruebarrena	R	25	SS	336	28	57	9	2	6	30	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yasiel Puig	656	9.5%	20.3%	.203	.346	.293	.373	.496	.376
Howie Kendrick	609	5.9%	15.9%	.128	.333	.291	.337	.419	.328
Joc Pederson	573	11.0%	29.7%	.181	.314	.239	.327	.420	.333
Adrian Gonzalez	642	7.8%	16.5%	.175	.302	.278	.333	.453	.337
Yasmani Grandal	381	12.3%	24.7%	.177	.298	.244	.339	.421	.335
Jimmy Rollins	585	8.2%	14.7%	.136	.265	.243	.305	.379	.304
Scott Van Slyke	388	10.8%	26.3%	.188	.332	.263	.348	.451	.352
Juan Uribe	343	4.7%	20.1%	.130	.308	.261	.298	.391	.300
Austin Barnes	542	7.7%	17.2%	.109	.276	.238	.305	.347	.292
Enrique Hernandez	552	6.2%	12.7%	.138	.275	.256	.306	.394	.306
Alex Guerrero	527	6.6%	16.3%	.145	.279	.253	.312	.398	.314
A.J. Ellis	393	12.5%	18.6%	.111	.271	.230	.334	.341	.296
Justin Turner	319	6.6%	15.7%	.120	.333	.290	.346	.410	.335
Corey Seager	519	6.2%	27.7%	.166	.310	.242	.292	.408	.307
Darwin Barney	456	6.4%	12.3%	.104	.258	.236	.291	.340	.276
Carl Crawford	385	4.7%	15.6%	.128	.314	.278	.317	.406	.320
Andre Ethier	472	9.1%	19.1%	.133	.309	.259	.335	.392	.316
Kyle Farmer	345	3.8%	17.4%	.080	.298	.250	.285	.330	.274
Miguel Olivo	228	3.1%	31.6%	.197	.285	.225	.254	.422	.294
Chris Heisey	308	4.2%	21.4%	.147	.282	.239	.280	.386	.292
Daniel Mayora	567	5.1%	17.3%	.082	.289	.246	.290	.328	.274
Scott Schebler	567	4.9%	27.7%	.168	.294	.230	.285	.398	.299
Darnell Sweeney	542	7.0%	28.0%	.126	.310	.231	.289	.357	.282
Chone Figgins	164	13.4%	18.3%	.051	.275	.217	.327	.268	.273
Alex Liddi	463	5.8%	34.1%	.154	.301	.214	.265	.368	.278
Brendan Harris	221	7.7%	16.3%	.116	.255	.226	.291	.342	.281
Ryan Adams	292	5.8%	27.4%	.107	.310	.230	.282	.337	.275
Angel Sanchez	247	5.7%	14.2%	.066	.260	.229	.275	.295	.250
Jeremy Hazelbaker	476	5.5%	30.7%	.120	.311	.225	.270	.345	.273
Mike Baxter	375	7.7%	21.3%	.112	.282	.226	.297	.338	.283
O’Koyea Dickson	518	5.0%	18.5%	.141	.272	.239	.292	.380	.295
J.C. Boscan	200	5.0%	26.5%	.054	.256	.187	.236	.241	.215
Brian Cavazos-Galvez	352	2.3%	18.8%	.115	.274	.237	.262	.352	.269
Erisbel Arruebarrena	336	4.5%	42.0%	.099	.300	.183	.222	.282	.221

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Yasiel Puig	656	7.0	143	2	5.1	Al Kaline
Howie Kendrick	609	5.4	112	3	3.7	Julio Franco
Joc Pederson	573	5.0	109	2	3.3	Colby Rasmus
Adrian Gonzalez	642	5.7	120	8	3.1	Fred McGriff
Yasmani Grandal	381	5.1	113	-1	2.8	Mark Bailey
Jimmy Rollins	585	4.3	92	-1	2.3	Omar Vizquel
Scott Van Slyke	388	5.8	124	2	2.3	Ryan Church
Juan Uribe	343	4.2	93	12	2.2	Vern Stephens
Austin Barnes	542	3.8	84	0	2.2	Gregg Zaun
Enrique Hernandez	552	4.3	96	2	2.0	Pete Rose Jr.
Alex Guerrero	527	4.4	99	-2	1.8	Jose Castro
A.J. Ellis	393	3.9	92	-1	1.7	Chris Cannizzaro
Justin Turner	319	5.5	113	-2	1.7	Jeff Cirillo
Corey Seager	519	4.2	95	-6	1.6	Jeff Blauser
Darwin Barney	456	3.6	78	7	1.3	Stu Cole
Carl Crawford	385	5.0	102	2	1.2	Bake McBride
Andre Ethier	472	4.7	105	-1	1.1	Sam West
Kyle Farmer	345	3.4	73	-1	0.7	Pat Dempsey
Miguel Olivo	228	3.6	87	-2	0.6	Joe Oliver
Chris Heisey	308	3.9	86	4	0.5	Fletcher Bates
Daniel Mayora	567	3.4	74	0	0.4	Steve Springer
Scott Schebler	567	4.0	91	-2	0.4	Tyler Colvin
Darnell Sweeney	542	3.5	81	-5	0.2	Buddy Biancalana
Chone Figgins	164	3.0	71	0	0.1	Craig Counsell
Alex Liddi	463	3.3	76	-3	0.1	Blake Whealy
Brendan Harris	221	3.4	78	-2	0.0	Jason Wood
Ryan Adams	292	3.3	74	-2	-0.1	Frank Kremblas
Angel Sanchez	247	2.8	61	-2	-0.2	Gary Green
Jeremy Hazelbaker	476	3.4	72	1	-0.4	Jalal Leach
Mike Baxter	375	3.5	79	-2	-0.4	Jarvis Brown
O’Koyea Dickson	518	3.8	88	-3	-0.5	Bill Selby
J.C. Boscan	200	1.9	35	-2	-0.7	Frank Charles
Brian Cavazos-Galvez	352	3.2	72	-3	-0.8	Keith Johnson
Erisbel Arruebarrena	336	2.0	41	-2	-1.1	Norm Tonucci

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Clayton Kershaw	L	27	31	31	212.0	238	45	13	159	55	51
Zack Greinke	R	31	30	30	188.0	174	42	16	169	68	64
Hyun-Jin Ryu	L	28	27	27	168.3	151	39	14	157	65	61
Brandon McCarthy	R	31	27	27	166.7	146	29	19	172	76	71
Kenley Jansen	R	27	70	0	69.0	105	20	6	47	18	17
Julio Urias	L	18	22	22	90.7	93	45	8	79	41	38
Yimi Garcia	R	24	57	0	75.3	83	19	7	63	27	25
Brett Anderson	L	27	10	10	55.3	47	17	4	52	24	22
Mike Bolsinger	R	27	25	23	132.3	109	52	14	133	66	62
Josh Beckett	R	35	17	17	95.7	84	33	13	91	47	44
Jeff Bennett	R	35	23	19	115.0	72	36	12	120	58	54
Chris Hatcher	R	30	60	0	70.7	74	19	7	63	28	26
Adam Liberatore	L	28	50	0	59.7	57	20	5	53	24	22
Juan Nicasio	R	28	31	20	121.0	102	42	16	120	62	58
J.P. Howell	L	32	62	0	49.0	48	22	4	40	19	18
Paco Rodriguez	L	24	62	0	47.7	55	19	5	39	19	18
Chris Withrow	R	26	34	0	38.0	45	21	4	29	15	14
Joe Wieland	R	25	12	11	50.7	43	14	7	50	26	24
Carlos Frias	R	25	29	20	128.3	84	40	13	135	67	63
Paul Maholm	L	33	26	17	110.3	73	33	13	116	58	54
Joel Peralta	R	39	63	0	56.7	61	18	7	50	25	23
Brian Wilson	R	33	48	0	41.7	44	18	4	37	18	17
Chris Anderson	R	22	23	21	105.3	92	57	11	103	57	53
Jamey Wright	R	40	53	0	60.0	48	22	4	58	27	25
Juan Carlos Oviedo	R	33	19	0	19.0	17	7	2	18	9	8
Pedro Baez	R	27	62	0	66.0	56	20	8	61	30	28
Kevin Correia	R	34	27	24	144.7	80	35	19	160	79	74
Stephen Fife	R	28	20	18	97.3	63	36	11	104	54	50
Scott Elbert	L	29	28	0	21.7	19	8	3	21	11	10
Sergio Santos	R	31	31	0	28.0	29	13	3	25	14	13
Zach Lee	R	23	27	25	139.0	93	45	19	144	77	72
Fauxsto Carmona	R	34	23	20	115.3	74	40	16	119	64	60
Brandon League	R	32	61	0	60.0	40	23	4	61	29	27
Daniel Coulombe	L	25	48	0	58.7	64	37	6	51	29	27
Randy Fontanez	R	26	43	0	65.7	58	24	7	63	32	30
Anthony Slama	R	31	14	0	16.0	13	10	2	15	10	9
Chris Perez	R	29	56	0	55.0	51	22	8	51	28	26
Red Patterson	R	28	35	13	101.0	81	44	14	102	57	53
Sam Demel	R	29	34	3	53.0	47	23	8	52	30	28
Daniel Moskos	L	29	18	0	21.3	16	13	3	22	14	13
Drew Carpenter	R	30	20	14	82.7	49	30	13	92	51	48
Chris Reed	L	25	23	22	120.7	90	61	16	125	73	68
Josh Judy	R	29	31	0	38.3	28	18	6	41	25	23
Justin Souza	R	29	31	0	41.0	24	15	7	47	27	25
Javier Solano	R	25	40	6	80.0	55	32	13	87	49	46
Nick Struck	R	25	24	22	118.7	63	58	19	137	82	77
Barry Enright	R	29	27	24	130.3	68	45	29	159	98	92

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Clayton Kershaw	212.0	840	28.3%	5.4%	.270	2.17	2.36	60	66
Zack Greinke	188.0	775	22.5%	5.4%	.283	3.06	3.10	85	86
Hyun-Jin Ryu	168.3	701	21.5%	5.6%	.290	3.26	3.12	91	87
Brandon McCarthy	166.7	701	20.8%	4.1%	.304	3.83	3.43	106	95
Kenley Jansen	69.0	274	38.3%	7.3%	.291	2.22	2.16	62	60
Julio Urias	90.7	396	23.5%	11.4%	.291	3.77	3.94	105	110
Yimi Garcia	75.3	308	27.0%	6.2%	.286	2.99	3.04	83	84
Brett Anderson	55.3	235	20.0%	7.2%	.289	3.58	3.27	99	91
Mike Bolsinger	132.3	582	18.7%	8.9%	.297	4.22	4.18	117	116
Josh Beckett	95.7	411	20.4%	8.0%	.280	4.14	4.24	115	118
Jeff Bennett	115.0	501	14.4%	7.2%	.288	4.23	4.33	118	120
Chris Hatcher	70.7	294	25.2%	6.5%	.292	3.31	3.16	92	88
Adam Liberatore	59.7	252	22.6%	7.9%	.287	3.32	3.50	92	97
Juan Nicasio	121.0	525	19.4%	8.0%	.287	4.31	4.23	120	118
J.P. Howell	49.0	209	23.0%	10.5%	.271	3.31	3.61	92	100
Paco Rodriguez	47.7	201	27.3%	9.4%	.281	3.40	3.29	94	91
Chris Withrow	38.0	164	27.4%	12.8%	.269	3.32	3.90	92	108
Joe Wieland	50.7	216	19.9%	6.5%	.285	4.26	4.09	118	114
Carlos Frias	128.3	560	15.0%	7.1%	.293	4.42	4.22	123	117
Paul Maholm	110.3	480	15.2%	6.9%	.290	4.40	4.37	122	122
Joel Peralta	56.7	238	25.6%	7.6%	.285	3.65	3.57	101	99
Brian Wilson	41.7	180	24.4%	10.0%	.294	3.67	3.66	102	102
Chris Anderson	105.3	476	19.3%	12.0%	.298	4.53	4.59	126	128
Jamey Wright	60.0	260	18.5%	8.5%	.297	3.75	3.58	104	99
Juan Carlos Oviedo	19.0	82	20.7%	8.5%	.291	3.79	4.00	105	111
Pedro Baez	66.0	279	20.1%	7.2%	.275	3.82	3.95	106	110
Kevin Correia	144.7	629	12.7%	5.6%	.287	4.60	4.53	128	126
Stephen Fife	97.3	432	14.6%	8.3%	.294	4.62	4.60	128	128
Scott Elbert	21.7	94	20.2%	8.5%	.285	4.15	4.45	115	124
Sergio Santos	28.0	122	23.8%	10.7%	.286	4.18	3.66	116	102
Zach Lee	139.0	606	15.3%	7.4%	.283	4.66	4.72	129	131
Fauxsto Carmona	115.3	505	14.7%	7.9%	.281	4.68	4.80	130	133
Brandon League	60.0	264	15.2%	8.7%	.294	4.05	3.84	113	107
Daniel Coulombe	58.7	264	24.2%	14.0%	.292	4.14	4.25	115	118
Randy Fontanez	65.7	284	20.4%	8.4%	.293	4.11	4.01	114	111
Anthony Slama	16.0	73	17.8%	13.7%	.277	5.06	5.04	141	140
Chris Perez	55.0	238	21.4%	9.2%	.281	4.25	4.56	118	127
Red Patterson	101.0	449	18.0%	9.8%	.289	4.72	4.78	131	133
Sam Demel	53.0	234	20.1%	9.8%	.288	4.75	4.76	132	132
Daniel Moskos	21.3	99	16.2%	13.1%	.293	5.48	5.46	152	152
Drew Carpenter	82.7	370	13.2%	8.1%	.289	5.23	5.29	145	147
Chris Reed	120.7	548	16.4%	11.1%	.291	5.07	5.06	141	140
Josh Judy	38.3	174	16.1%	10.4%	.292	5.40	5.30	150	147
Justin Souza	41.0	185	13.0%	8.1%	.294	5.49	5.45	153	151
Javier Solano	80.0	359	15.3%	8.9%	.291	5.17	5.25	144	146
Nick Struck	118.7	551	11.4%	10.5%	.293	5.84	5.77	162	160
Barry Enright	130.3	595	11.4%	7.6%	.292	6.35	6.23	176	173

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Clayton Kershaw	212.0	10.10	1.91	0.55	166	6.7	Sandy Koufax
Zack Greinke	188.0	8.33	2.01	0.77	117	3.7	Kevin Millwood
Hyun-Jin Ryu	168.3	8.07	2.09	0.75	110	2.9	Bob Knepper
Brandon McCarthy	166.7	7.88	1.57	1.03	94	1.6	Esteban Loaiza
Kenley Jansen	69.0	13.70	2.61	0.78	162	1.4	Jose Valverde
Julio Urias	90.7	9.23	4.47	0.79	95	1.0	Randy Johnson
Yimi Garcia	75.3	9.92	2.27	0.84	120	0.8	Scott Strickland
Brett Anderson	55.3	7.65	2.77	0.65	100	0.7	David Williams
Mike Bolsinger	132.3	7.41	3.54	0.95	85	0.6	Lee Tunnell
Josh Beckett	95.7	7.90	3.10	1.22	87	0.6	Paul Abbott
Jeff Bennett	115.0	5.63	2.82	0.94	85	0.5	Spec Shea
Chris Hatcher	70.7	9.42	2.42	0.89	108	0.5	Joe Boever
Adam Liberatore	59.7	8.59	3.02	0.75	108	0.4	Tim Hamulack
Juan Nicasio	121.0	7.59	3.12	1.19	83	0.3	Russ Springer
J.P. Howell	49.0	8.82	4.04	0.73	109	0.3	Marshall Bridges
Paco Rodriguez	47.7	10.38	3.58	0.94	106	0.3	Buzz Oliver
Chris Withrow	38.0	10.66	4.97	0.95	108	0.2	Santiago Casilla
Joe Wieland	50.7	7.63	2.49	1.24	84	0.2	Luis Vasquez
Carlos Frias	128.3	5.89	2.81	0.91	81	0.2	Mark Cahill
Paul Maholm	110.3	5.96	2.69	1.06	81	0.2	Chris Michalak
Joel Peralta	56.7	9.68	2.86	1.11	98	0.1	Doug Bair
Brian Wilson	41.7	9.50	3.88	0.86	98	0.1	Toby Borland
Chris Anderson	105.3	7.86	4.87	0.94	79	0.1	Bill Mooneyham
Jamey Wright	60.0	7.20	3.30	0.60	96	0.0	Don McMahon
Juan Carlos Oviedo	19.0	8.05	3.32	0.95	95	0.0	Kirk Bullinger
Pedro Baez	66.0	7.64	2.73	1.09	94	0.0	Pete Young
Kevin Correia	144.7	4.98	2.18	1.18	78	-0.1	Jared Fernandez
Stephen Fife	97.3	5.83	3.33	1.02	78	-0.1	Landon Jacobsen
Scott Elbert	21.7	7.88	3.32	1.24	86	-0.1	Erik Plantenberg
Sergio Santos	28.0	9.32	4.18	0.96	86	-0.1	Bart Miadich
Zach Lee	139.0	6.02	2.91	1.23	77	-0.2	Byron Ballard
Fauxsto Carmona	115.3	5.78	3.12	1.25	77	-0.2	R.A. Dickey
Brandon League	60.0	6.00	3.45	0.60	89	-0.2	Jim Coates
Daniel Coulombe	58.7	9.81	5.67	0.92	87	-0.3	Kevin Lovingier
Randy Fontanez	65.7	7.95	3.29	0.96	87	-0.3	Steve Hoeme
Anthony Slama	16.0	7.31	5.63	1.13	71	-0.3	Mike Barlow
Chris Perez	55.0	8.35	3.60	1.31	84	-0.3	Doug Bochtler
Red Patterson	101.0	7.22	3.92	1.25	76	-0.4	Edwin Hurtado
Sam Demel	53.0	7.98	3.91	1.36	75	-0.5	Doug Gogolewski
Daniel Moskos	21.3	6.76	5.49	1.27	65	-0.5	Ted Wills
Drew Carpenter	82.7	5.33	3.26	1.41	69	-0.7	Mike Dunne
Chris Reed	120.7	6.71	4.55	1.19	71	-0.8	Neal Musser
Josh Judy	38.3	6.58	4.23	1.41	66	-0.8	Dick Selma
Justin Souza	41.0	5.27	3.29	1.54	65	-0.9	Sam Moore
Javier Solano	80.0	6.19	3.60	1.46	69	-1.0	Jeff Robinson
Nick Struck	118.7	4.78	4.40	1.44	61	-2.0	Dana Allison
Barry Enright	130.3	4.70	3.11	2.00	56	-3.0	Scott Nielsen

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.