2015 ZiPS Projections – Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
It isn’t sound practice merely to find the sum of all the WAR projections in the depth-chart image below, add those to the 48 or so wins which constitute a replacement-level team, and then regard the result as the club’s ZiPS win projection. That said, examining the forecasts for those players expected to begin the season on Minnesota’s opening-day roster, it’s difficult to conclude that this club is destined to win much more than 70 games.

Moderately heartbreaking is Joe Mauer’s very regular two-win projection. If it seems low, that’s not necessarily a novel sentiment. Multiple readers suggested last year, when ZiPS produced a 2.8 WAR figure for Mauer, that they’d take the over. It would have been a losing bet, that: even with a .342 BABIP, he recorded only a 106 wRC+. In the context of the first-base positional adjustment, that’s too little offense.

Pitchers
The star of the current iteration of the Twins, it would appear, is Phil Hughes, who receives the best projection on the club by nearly two wins. Hughes improved upon his previous career-best walk rate by roughly two-thirds last year, while also producing the best strikeout rate of his career as a starter. ZiPS’ computer math declares that he’ll retain almost all those gains.

Of some concern — in the context of the 2015 season, at least — is nearly every other pitcher employed by the club. Besides Hughes and reliever Glen Perkins, no other pitcher is projected to post either an ERA or FIP better than league average. Ervin Santana, for example, is forecast to produce a single win. That would not represent a strong return on Minnesota’s four-year, $54 million investment in him.

Bench/Prospects
The bad news for this next year’s Twins club, but good news for future editions of the team is that two of the most encouraging projections here belong to players unlikely to begin the season on the 25-man roster. Outfielder Byron Buxton (382 PA, 2.0 WAR) and right-hander Alex Meyer (112.2 IP, 1.0 WAR) would both represent improvements over the major-league starters at their respective position. The prospect of the Twins starting their arbitration clocks, however — especially in light of injuries with which both have had to contend — is an unlikely one.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Twins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Brian Dozier	R	28	2B	639	86	137	30	3	17	67	16	7
Trevor Plouffe	R	29	3B	552	63	127	30	2	17	71	2	2
Josmil Pinto	R	26	C	495	57	109	23	1	14	53	0	1
Byron Buxton	R	21	CF	382	48	87	10	5	9	38	22	12
Joe Mauer	L	32	1B	555	65	138	29	2	7	61	3	2
Danny Santana	B	24	CF	589	71	150	27	7	6	49	21	8
Eduardo Escobar	B	26	SS	443	49	106	24	3	6	37	4	3
Kurt Suzuki	R	31	C	442	36	104	24	0	5	50	1	1
Miguel Sano	R	22	3B	413	52	81	17	3	20	57	6	4
Jorge Polanco	B	21	SS	596	63	135	24	5	8	58	9	9
Oswaldo Arcia	L	24	RF	532	61	122	25	4	21	72	3	3
Stuart Turner	R	23	C	304	32	61	11	1	6	28	4	1
Shane Robinson	R	30	CF	259	28	56	9	1	3	21	4	2
Torii Hunter	R	39	RF	566	64	148	32	3	14	70	3	3
Chris Parmelee	L	27	1B	491	50	109	22	1	14	54	1	2
Jose Martinez	R	29	3B	487	49	111	18	1	7	46	2	2
Aaron Hicks	B	25	CF	500	57	96	19	4	8	44	12	7
Doug Bernier	R	35	SS	367	34	74	14	2	2	27	3	3
Eduardo Nunez	R	28	SS	318	35	75	12	3	5	29	15	4
Heiker Meneses	R	23	SS	446	42	97	13	3	3	32	12	9
Eddie Rosario	L	23	CF	473	50	107	22	3	9	47	8	8
Jordan Schafer	L	28	CF	322	36	62	10	2	3	22	27	7
Max Kepler	L	22	CF	407	42	87	17	3	8	42	4	2
James Beresford	L	26	2B	512	48	116	17	2	1	34	6	4
Jason Bartlett	R	35	SS	225	25	43	9	1	1	16	5	2
Argenis Diaz	R	28	SS	440	38	93	18	1	1	29	5	4
Kennys Vargas	B	24	1B	521	57	114	22	1	17	65	0	1
Brandon Waring	R	29	3B	443	42	71	19	0	14	43	1	0
Adam Walker	R	23	RF	568	65	118	19	2	22	72	7	4
Corey Wimberly	B	31	CF	256	22	55	9	2	0	16	9	4
Brock Peterson	R	31	1B	497	52	103	21	1	15	51	1	0
Jason Kubel	L	33	LF	303	27	60	11	1	8	36	1	1
Brad Nelson	L	32	1B	409	39	82	15	0	10	39	1	1
Eric Farris	R	29	CF	525	46	119	18	2	4	35	17	7
Chris Rahl	R	31	LF	384	35	85	15	2	6	35	11	6
Travis Harrison	R	22	LF	554	58	111	25	0	7	47	4	6
Chris Herrmann	L	27	RF	433	45	86	17	2	6	37	3	2
Tony Thomas	R	28	2B	440	39	80	19	3	8	36	11	2
Danny Ortiz	L	25	LF	509	49	112	24	3	10	50	3	4
Wilkin Ramirez	R	29	RF	353	32	76	16	2	6	30	6	3

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Brian Dozier	639	9.4%	18.9%	.155	.279	.244	.321	.399	.319
Trevor Plouffe	552	8.0%	19.6%	.171	.292	.255	.319	.426	.327
Josmil Pinto	495	9.1%	22.0%	.151	.293	.245	.317	.396	.317
Byron Buxton	382	7.9%	28.5%	.135	.339	.251	.315	.386	.312
Joe Mauer	555	12.1%	16.9%	.111	.339	.285	.371	.396	.332
Danny Santana	589	4.1%	21.7%	.106	.341	.271	.305	.377	.302
Eduardo Escobar	443	5.4%	20.1%	.117	.315	.259	.301	.376	.296
Kurt Suzuki	442	6.1%	12.2%	.098	.284	.259	.311	.357	.294
Miguel Sano	413	8.0%	34.6%	.223	.288	.218	.288	.441	.318
Jorge Polanco	596	6.5%	19.5%	.106	.296	.246	.295	.352	.283
Oswaldo Arcia	532	7.3%	28.6%	.198	.323	.252	.316	.450	.334
Stuart Turner	304	5.6%	20.7%	.111	.258	.218	.271	.329	.270
Shane Robinson	259	7.7%	14.7%	.085	.270	.238	.301	.323	.280
Torii Hunter	566	3.5%	16.6%	.150	.311	.279	.308	.429	.321
Chris Parmelee	491	8.6%	22.2%	.150	.295	.247	.316	.397	.313
Jose Martinez	487	5.1%	10.7%	.092	.264	.248	.292	.340	.278
Aaron Hicks	500	10.8%	25.8%	.117	.289	.219	.304	.336	.286
Doug Bernier	367	6.5%	22.3%	.073	.291	.225	.284	.298	.257
Eduardo Nunez	318	4.4%	15.1%	.111	.283	.253	.286	.364	.287
Heiker Meneses	446	4.3%	20.9%	.068	.295	.235	.277	.303	.256
Eddie Rosario	473	4.4%	22.6%	.123	.293	.239	.273	.362	.277
Jordan Schafer	322	9.3%	25.2%	.081	.295	.219	.295	.300	.271
Max Kepler	407	5.7%	20.9%	.124	.275	.230	.278	.354	.281
James Beresford	512	5.3%	15.6%	.051	.291	.245	.287	.296	.259
Jason Bartlett	225	8.9%	20.0%	.070	.271	.216	.288	.286	.260
Argenis Diaz	440	5.0%	21.8%	.056	.293	.227	.267	.283	.244
Kennys Vargas	521	7.1%	26.1%	.158	.297	.240	.298	.398	.305
Brandon Waring	443	7.0%	41.5%	.152	.278	.177	.249	.329	.261
Adam Walker	568	4.9%	32.4%	.167	.289	.221	.261	.388	.285
Corey Wimberly	256	3.9%	15.6%	.055	.278	.233	.274	.288	.251
Brock Peterson	497	6.2%	28.8%	.148	.291	.225	.282	.373	.291
Jason Kubel	303	10.2%	30.4%	.138	.304	.223	.304	.361	.289
Brad Nelson	409	8.1%	24.0%	.121	.270	.221	.284	.342	.277
Eric Farris	525	3.8%	12.8%	.069	.270	.242	.273	.311	.260
Chris Rahl	384	2.3%	29.9%	.101	.315	.230	.251	.331	.256
Travis Harrison	554	7.9%	25.6%	.092	.294	.223	.292	.315	.273
Chris Herrmann	433	7.9%	23.6%	.099	.279	.219	.283	.318	.267
Tony Thomas	440	5.0%	34.3%	.119	.281	.194	.239	.313	.249
Danny Ortiz	509	3.3%	22.6%	.124	.281	.231	.258	.355	.268
Wilkin Ramirez	353	3.7%	27.5%	.113	.299	.228	.261	.341	.267

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Brian Dozier	639	4.6	100	-1	2.4	Kelly Heath
Trevor Plouffe	552	4.9	106	-3	2.1	Steve Buechele
Josmil Pinto	495	4.5	98	-5	2.1	Jeremy Brown
Byron Buxton	382	4.3	95	7	2.0	Carlos Gomez
Joe Mauer	555	5.5	115	4	2.0	Joe Cunningham
Danny Santana	589	4.4	90	-2	1.2	Willie McGee
Eduardo Escobar	443	4.1	88	-1	1.1	Omar Quintanilla
Kurt Suzuki	442	4.0	86	-4	1.1	Scott Servais
Miguel Sano	413	4.3	100	-4	1.1	Jose Oliva
Jorge Polanco	596	3.6	80	1	1.1	Donnie Murphy
Oswaldo Arcia	532	5.1	111	-6	1.0	Jesse Barfield
Stuart Turner	304	3.1	67	2	0.6	Walt McKeel
Shane Robinson	259	3.5	75	3	0.5	Charles Thomas
Torii Hunter	566	4.9	104	-7	0.4	Steve Garvey
Chris Parmelee	491	4.4	98	0	0.3	Larry Broadway
Jose Martinez	487	3.5	76	1	0.3	Pete Rose Jr.
Aaron Hicks	500	3.5	79	-2	0.3	Aaron Guiel
Doug Bernier	367	2.9	63	2	0.1	Jeff Branson
Eduardo Nunez	318	4.0	80	-6	0.1	Cristian Guzman
Heiker Meneses	446	2.8	62	3	0.1	Danny Richar
Eddie Rosario	473	3.3	76	-1	-0.1	Marvell Wynne
Jordan Schafer	322	3.5	67	-2	-0.1	Jeff Duncan
Max Kepler	407	3.5	75	-3	-0.1	Mark Kramer
James Beresford	512	3.0	64	4	-0.1	Bien Figueroa
Jason Bartlett	225	2.9	62	-2	-0.2	Mark Belanger
Argenis Diaz	440	2.6	54	2	-0.4	Gary Green
Kennys Vargas	521	4.2	92	-4	-0.5	Mark Higgins
Brandon Waring	443	2.7	60	0	-0.5	Jared Sandberg
Adam Walker	568	3.5	78	0	-0.5	Derrick Gibson
Corey Wimberly	256	2.8	58	-2	-0.7	Doug Dascenzo
Brock Peterson	497	3.7	81	-1	-0.7	Tom Nevers
Jason Kubel	303	3.8	85	-6	-0.7	Mike Hegan
Brad Nelson	409	3.3	74	0	-0.9	Jody Davis
Eric Farris	525	3.1	63	-6	-1.2	Josh Tyler
Chris Rahl	384	2.9	61	1	-1.2	Tom Romano
Travis Harrison	554	3.0	70	-2	-1.3	Jake Blalock
Chris Herrmann	433	3.1	68	-4	-1.4	Matt Scanlon
Tony Thomas	440	2.7	53	-6	-1.5	Kody Kirkland
Danny Ortiz	509	3.1	69	-3	-1.6	Jason Friedman
Wilkin Ramirez	353	3.1	67	-8	-1.8	Travis Wilson

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Phil Hughes	R	29	31	31	201.3	177	17	16	209	85	79
Kyle Gibson	R	27	30	30	167.7	106	54	13	173	87	81
Alex Meyer	R	25	24	24	112.7	108	55	12	111	59	55
Ervin Santana	R	32	28	28	170.7	136	56	23	180	94	88
Ricky Nolasco	R	32	27	27	157.3	122	37	20	176	88	82
Glen Perkins	L	32	60	0	58.7	66	14	6	52	24	22
Anthony Swarzak	R	29	48	2	87.0	58	26	7	92	43	40
Taylor Rogers	L	24	24	24	132.3	78	45	13	151	77	72
Jose Berrios	R	21	23	23	117.7	90	47	14	128	68	64
Tim Stauffer	R	33	36	7	74.7	61	27	7	80	40	37
J.R. Graham	R	25	25	20	86.0	52	31	8	98	49	46
Tommy Milone	L	28	27	26	149.3	108	40	23	172	88	82
Jared Burton	R	34	63	0	57.7	48	20	6	56	28	26
Michael Tonkin	R	25	61	0	68.3	60	23	6	69	33	31
Caleb Thielbar	L	28	59	0	55.3	45	20	5	55	27	25
Casey Fien	R	31	69	0	61.7	57	15	8	61	30	28
Lester Oliveros	R	27	38	0	46.0	46	21	5	43	22	21
Ryan Pressly	R	26	55	0	82.3	60	28	7	84	41	38
Blaine Boyer	R	33	45	0	51.0	40	13	6	53	26	24
Trevor May	R	25	27	26	137.0	121	64	18	144	82	77
Brian Duensing	L	32	64	0	54.3	43	19	5	57	28	26
A.J. Achter	R	26	48	0	80.0	67	28	9	81	41	38
Matt Guerrier	R	36	32	0	30.3	20	12	3	33	17	16
Brayan Villarreal	R	28	33	0	34.0	37	27	3	31	19	18
Mike Pelfrey	R	31	13	13	65.3	39	25	8	77	42	39
Adrian Salcedo	R	24	38	4	66.7	52	26	9	73	40	37
Kris Johnson	L	30	27	20	113.3	73	58	14	127	72	67
Mark Hamburger	R	28	29	6	70.3	45	34	9	80	45	42
Aaron Thompson	L	28	42	3	63.0	41	25	8	72	40	37
Stephen Pryor	R	25	39	0	42.3	37	28	6	44	28	26
Mason Melotakis	L	24	33	8	77.7	52	41	10	88	51	48
Ryan O’Rourke	L	27	44	0	48.3	39	22	8	54	32	30
Tyler Duffey	R	24	25	22	128.3	78	35	23	154	88	82
Logan Darnell	L	26	27	24	131.7	85	52	23	157	93	87
Virgil Vasquez	R	33	24	20	115.7	65	36	22	142	83	78
Jason Wheeler	L	24	25	25	132.0	74	57	26	164	101	94

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Phil Hughes	201.3	830	21.3%	2.0%	.314	3.53	3.12	89	79
Kyle Gibson	167.7	730	14.5%	7.4%	.288	4.35	4.28	110	108
Alex Meyer	112.7	504	21.4%	10.9%	.306	4.39	4.63	111	117
Ervin Santana	170.7	748	18.2%	7.5%	.297	4.64	4.71	117	119
Ricky Nolasco	157.3	685	17.8%	5.4%	.313	4.69	4.46	118	112
Glen Perkins	58.7	242	27.3%	5.8%	.299	3.37	3.33	85	84
Anthony Swarzak	87.0	379	15.3%	6.9%	.296	4.14	4.08	104	103
Taylor Rogers	132.3	593	13.2%	7.6%	.307	4.90	4.84	123	122
Jose Berrios	117.7	528	17.0%	8.9%	.308	4.90	4.93	123	124
Tim Stauffer	74.7	331	18.4%	8.2%	.313	4.46	4.24	112	107
J.R. Graham	86.0	387	13.4%	8.0%	.309	4.81	4.79	121	121
Tommy Milone	149.3	660	16.4%	6.1%	.307	4.94	4.93	124	124
Jared Burton	57.7	249	19.3%	8.0%	.292	4.06	4.31	102	109
Michael Tonkin	68.3	297	20.2%	7.7%	.309	4.08	4.02	103	101
Caleb Thielbar	55.3	241	18.7%	8.3%	.294	4.07	4.11	103	104
Casey Fien	61.7	261	21.8%	5.7%	.294	4.09	4.05	103	102
Lester Oliveros	46.0	202	22.8%	10.4%	.299	4.11	4.38	104	110
Ryan Pressly	82.3	359	16.7%	7.8%	.294	4.15	4.20	105	106
Blaine Boyer	51.0	219	18.3%	5.9%	.296	4.24	4.32	107	109
Trevor May	137.0	619	19.5%	10.3%	.307	5.06	5.01	127	126
Brian Duensing	54.3	239	18.0%	8.0%	.304	4.31	4.09	109	103
A.J. Achter	80.0	349	19.2%	8.0%	.298	4.27	4.49	108	113
Matt Guerrier	30.3	136	14.7%	8.8%	.300	4.75	4.59	120	116
Brayan Villarreal	34.0	160	23.1%	16.9%	.308	4.76	4.98	120	125
Mike Pelfrey	65.3	298	13.1%	8.4%	.310	5.37	5.22	135	131
Adrian Salcedo	66.7	299	17.4%	8.7%	.308	4.99	5.08	126	128
Kris Johnson	113.3	525	13.9%	11.0%	.303	5.32	5.55	134	140
Mark Hamburger	70.3	325	13.9%	10.5%	.305	5.37	5.50	135	139
Aaron Thompson	63.0	286	14.3%	8.7%	.308	5.29	5.22	133	131
Stephen Pryor	42.3	199	18.6%	14.1%	.302	5.53	5.76	139	145
Mason Melotakis	77.7	362	14.4%	11.3%	.307	5.56	5.65	140	142
Ryan O’Rourke	48.3	221	17.7%	10.0%	.309	5.59	5.50	141	139
Tyler Duffey	128.3	574	13.6%	6.1%	.305	5.75	5.66	145	142
Logan Darnell	131.7	604	14.1%	8.6%	.307	5.95	5.84	150	147
Virgil Vasquez	115.7	525	12.4%	6.9%	.304	6.07	6.00	153	151
Jason Wheeler	132.0	617	12.0%	9.2%	.305	6.41	6.45	161	163

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Phil Hughes	201.3	7.91	0.76	0.72	112	4.0	John Burkett
Kyle Gibson	167.7	5.69	2.90	0.70	91	1.5	Steve Fireovid
Alex Meyer	112.7	8.62	4.39	0.96	90	1.0	Dustin Nippert
Ervin Santana	170.7	7.17	2.95	1.21	85	0.9	Ron Darling
Ricky Nolasco	157.3	6.98	2.12	1.14	84	0.7	Jeff Weaver
Glen Perkins	58.7	10.12	2.15	0.92	117	0.6	Bob Patterson
Anthony Swarzak	87.0	6.00	2.69	0.72	95	0.3	Jose Santiago
Taylor Rogers	132.3	5.31	3.06	0.88	81	0.3	Jake Chapman
Jose Berrios	117.7	6.88	3.59	1.07	81	0.2	J.D. Durbin
Tim Stauffer	74.7	7.35	3.25	0.84	89	0.2	Britt Reames
J.R. Graham	86.0	5.44	3.24	0.84	82	0.2	Joe Coleman
Tommy Milone	149.3	6.51	2.41	1.39	80	0.2	Rick Honeycutt
Jared Burton	57.7	7.49	3.12	0.94	97	0.1	Bryan Corey
Michael Tonkin	68.3	7.91	3.03	0.79	97	0.1	Juan Padilla
Caleb Thielbar	55.3	7.32	3.25	0.81	97	0.1	Javier Lopez
Casey Fien	61.7	8.31	2.19	1.17	97	0.1	Dan Giese
Lester Oliveros	46.0	9.00	4.11	0.98	96	0.1	Brian Bruney
Ryan Pressly	82.3	6.56	3.06	0.77	95	0.0	Robert Tenenini
Blaine Boyer	51.0	7.06	2.29	1.06	93	0.0	Kirk Bullinger
Trevor May	137.0	7.95	4.20	1.18	78	0.0	Greg Keagle
Brian Duensing	54.3	7.13	3.15	0.83	92	-0.1	Will Brunson
A.J. Achter	80.0	7.54	3.15	1.01	92	-0.1	Matt Stevens
Matt Guerrier	30.3	5.94	3.56	0.89	83	-0.2	Ernie Johnson
Brayan Villarreal	34.0	9.79	7.15	0.79	83	-0.3	Eric Cammack
Mike Pelfrey	65.3	5.38	3.45	1.10	74	-0.3	Evan Thomas
Adrian Salcedo	66.7	7.02	3.51	1.21	79	-0.4	Brad Moore
Kris Johnson	113.3	5.80	4.61	1.11	74	-0.5	Steve Davis
Mark Hamburger	70.3	5.76	4.35	1.15	74	-0.6	Marty McLeary
Aaron Thompson	63.0	5.86	3.57	1.14	75	-0.7	Chris Cumberland
Stephen Pryor	42.3	7.87	5.96	1.28	71	-0.7	Agustin Montero
Mason Melotakis	77.7	6.02	4.75	1.16	71	-0.8	Brian Holliday
Ryan O’Rourke	48.3	7.27	4.10	1.49	71	-0.9	John Hrusovsky
Tyler Duffey	128.3	5.47	2.46	1.61	69	-1.2	Dane Johnson
Logan Darnell	131.7	5.81	3.55	1.57	66	-1.6	Mike Prochaska
Virgil Vasquez	115.7	5.06	2.80	1.71	65	-1.6	R.A. Dickey
Jason Wheeler	132.0	5.05	3.89	1.77	62	-2.3	Buddy Groom

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.