2015 ZiPS Projections – Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta.

Batters
Ben Zobrist remains the very quietest superstar, probably, in baseball. Since 2009 — which is to say, over the last six years — only Miguel Cabrera (37.9) has produced a higher WAR than Zobrist (35.4). Just behind him: Robinson Cano (34.6), Evan Longoria (34.0), and Andrew McCutchen (33.9). Were he compensated according to this his actual value, Ben Zobrist wouldn’t be a Tampa Bay Ray. ZiPS calls for the Zobrist’s lowest WAR since 2008, but that’s unsurprising considering where he is on the age curve.

The club’s other underpaid — but probably more famous — star, Evan Longoria, had a difficult 2014 season by his standards, producing a batting line just above league average and a 3.4 WAR overall in a full complement of plate appearances. His WAR projection in this iteration of ZiPS is a win-and-a-half lower than last year’s.

Pitchers
Per ZiPS’ computer math, the Rays feature a strong triumvirate at the top of their rotation in Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, and Drew Smyly, the last of whom was acquired this previous season in the deal that sent David Price to Detroit. Should Smyly produce the three wins for which ZiPS calls at the league minimum, that would be a marginal value of something like $17 million. Important, that sort of thing, for a club with as little fiscal might as the Rays have.

Just after left-hander and relief ace Jake McGee, one finds Brad Boxberger, who’s emerged from anonymity with a relatively pedestrian fastball — for a reliever, at least — to become one of the league’s most dominant relief pitchers. In 2014, Boxberger recorded the third-highest strikeout rate (42.1%) among all pitchers with 50-plus innings — just ahead of the much harder throwing Dellin Betances, Wade Davis, and Craig Kimbrel.

Bench/Prospects
Two of Tampa Bay’s six most productive players according to ZiPS — outfielder Kevin Kiermaier and infielder Nick Franklin — actually don’t appear on the depth chart below. That’s not to say that they won’t record a significant number of plate appearances between them. What it is to say is that the Rays have customarily employed a number of platoons and other manner of timesharing situations and that attempting to account for their usage patterns in a traditional depth chart is difficult. It doesn’t alter the fact that Kiermaier and Franklin are useful pieces, of course. Elsewhere, one finds that ZiPS’ projection of infielder Ryan Brett (1.4 WAR in 457 PA) is encouraging. Brett spent all of 2014 at Double-A Montgomery.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Rays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Ben Zobrist	B	34	2B	633	81	143	32	3	14	59	11	5
Evan Longoria	R	29	3B	609	76	137	27	2	23	80	3	1
Desmond Jennings	R	28	CF	591	81	127	27	4	13	45	20	6
Kevin Kiermaier	L	25	CF	497	53	115	18	9	9	41	15	7
Wil Myers	R	24	RF	546	65	125	25	1	19	59	9	2
Nick Franklin	B	24	2B	565	64	118	23	3	11	53	10	3
Ryan Hanigan	R	34	C	286	20	58	9	0	4	27	0	0
Matt Joyce	L	30	LF	473	56	98	21	2	14	52	5	4
Ryan Brett	B	23	2B	457	50	109	18	4	7	36	20	7
Yunel Escobar	R	32	SS	552	48	126	21	1	8	42	3	2
Justin O’Conner	R	23	C	444	41	89	19	1	10	39	2	0
Curt Casali	R	26	C	360	38	67	15	0	5	27	1	0
David DeJesus	L	35	LF	391	44	81	18	3	7	29	4	4
James Loney	L	31	1B	584	52	148	26	0	9	60	3	1
Brandon Guyer	R	29	LF	336	43	77	15	3	4	28	9	2
Cole Figueroa	L	28	3B	458	49	104	16	3	3	36	5	2
Logan Forsythe	R	28	2B	357	41	71	12	2	7	30	6	1
Mikie Mahtook	R	25	CF	568	57	124	24	5	7	47	16	5
Hak-Ju Lee	L	24	SS	343	34	68	8	2	4	22	14	6
Tim Beckham	R	25	2B	346	38	76	12	2	4	25	7	3
Jose Molina	R	40	C	251	11	46	6	0	1	12	2	1
Andrew Toles	L	23	CF	420	41	100	17	3	2	28	30	16
Richie Shaffer	R	24	3B	443	43	81	19	2	10	39	3	0
Jake Hager	R	22	SS	534	45	112	19	3	2	32	6	6
Justin Christian	R	35	LF	449	49	96	19	3	5	30	14	4
Allan Dykstra	L	28	1B	423	48	69	13	1	11	41	1	0
Mike Fontenot	L	35	2B	359	31	75	14	1	2	23	3	1
Ali Solis	R	27	C	253	20	47	9	1	3	18	1	1
Jerry Sands	R	27	RF	393	42	71	13	1	11	39	1	1
Vince Belnome	L	27	1B	460	51	91	19	1	7	38	1	1
Ray Olmedo	B	34	3B	383	33	75	10	2	0	20	6	3
Jeremy Moore	L	28	LF	369	38	67	11	3	10	34	6	4
Wilson Betemit	B	33	1B	317	30	59	11	0	7	25	1	0

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Ben Zobrist	633	11.4%	15.0%	.145	.289	.260	.345	.405	.330
Evan Longoria	609	9.5%	20.0%	.186	.285	.255	.330	.441	.330
Desmond Jennings	591	9.1%	20.8%	.142	.294	.243	.320	.385	.314
Kevin Kiermaier	497	6.0%	20.7%	.139	.308	.253	.305	.392	.305
Wil Myers	546	9.0%	26.6%	.172	.320	.255	.322	.427	.328
Nick Franklin	565	9.0%	23.7%	.123	.295	.234	.305	.357	.294
Ryan Hanigan	286	11.2%	13.3%	.085	.262	.236	.331	.321	.286
Matt Joyce	473	11.8%	21.8%	.164	.284	.241	.334	.405	.324
Ryan Brett	457	3.9%	19.5%	.110	.304	.253	.289	.363	.289
Yunel Escobar	552	7.8%	12.0%	.094	.277	.254	.316	.348	.294
Justin O’Conner	444	3.6%	31.8%	.121	.289	.211	.245	.332	.257
Curt Casali	360	8.9%	24.2%	.094	.272	.210	.293	.304	.273
David DeJesus	391	9.5%	18.4%	.131	.277	.235	.321	.366	.305
James Loney	584	6.5%	12.5%	.098	.302	.275	.322	.373	.304
Brandon Guyer	336	5.4%	17.9%	.109	.305	.255	.317	.364	.305
Cole Figueroa	458	7.4%	9.2%	.076	.272	.252	.309	.328	.284
Logan Forsythe	357	8.7%	23.0%	.117	.277	.224	.301	.341	.289
Mikie Mahtook	568	5.6%	25.7%	.105	.312	.237	.289	.342	.282
Hak-Ju Lee	343	7.6%	25.7%	.077	.290	.217	.279	.294	.261
Tim Beckham	346	5.8%	23.7%	.088	.308	.240	.287	.328	.273
Jose Molina	251	6.0%	22.7%	.039	.260	.201	.254	.240	.225
Andrew Toles	420	2.9%	23.1%	.073	.323	.250	.278	.323	.266
Richie Shaffer	443	6.8%	31.8%	.131	.276	.200	.260	.331	.264
Jake Hager	534	4.7%	23.0%	.062	.292	.225	.263	.287	.242
Justin Christian	449	5.1%	15.1%	.096	.264	.231	.278	.327	.272
Allan Dykstra	423	13.5%	35.7%	.135	.293	.193	.312	.328	.294
Mike Fontenot	359	6.1%	20.6%	.067	.286	.228	.281	.295	.258
Ali Solis	253	2.4%	33.2%	.083	.282	.194	.219	.277	.219
Jerry Sands	393	9.2%	31.0%	.136	.270	.202	.277	.338	.277
Vince Belnome	460	11.1%	27.6%	.103	.307	.225	.311	.328	.289
Ray Olmedo	383	5.2%	19.3%	.040	.268	.212	.256	.252	.227
Jeremy Moore	369	4.9%	35.5%	.135	.275	.194	.236	.329	.250
Wilson Betemit	317	7.3%	33.1%	.111	.286	.203	.259	.314	.255

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Ben Zobrist	633	5.1	113	4	3.8	Ray Durham
Evan Longoria	609	5.3	117	3	3.7	Ken McMullen
Desmond Jennings	591	4.6	100	0	2.5	Eric Byrnes
Kevin Kiermaier	497	4.4	97	6	2.3	Steve Finley
Wil Myers	546	5.1	111	-2	1.6	Ron Swoboda
Nick Franklin	565	3.9	88	2	1.6	Glenn Hubbard
Ryan Hanigan	286	3.8	87	3	1.4	Gene Desautels
Matt Joyce	473	4.7	109	0	1.4	Josh Willingham
Ryan Brett	457	3.9	84	5	1.4	Tony Abreu
Yunel Escobar	552	4.0	89	-6	1.2	Chico Carrasquel
Justin O’Conner	444	2.8	62	6	1.1	Joe Ayrault
Curt Casali	360	3.1	70	0	0.8	Matt Treanor
David DeJesus	391	4.0	95	2	0.7	Bud Stewart
James Loney	584	4.5	97	2	0.6	Sean Casey
Brandon Guyer	336	4.4	93	0	0.6	Alex Ochoa
Cole Figueroa	458	3.7	81	-2	0.5	Alex Cora
Logan Forsythe	357	3.7	82	-3	0.3	Dave Edler
Mikie Mahtook	568	3.6	79	-4	0.3	Xavier Paul
Hak-Ju Lee	343	2.9	63	1	0.2	Edwin Rodriguez
Tim Beckham	346	3.4	74	0	0.2	Vance Law
Jose Molina	251	2.1	42	4	0.1	Tony Pena
Andrew Toles	420	3.2	70	1	0.0	Leo Garcia
Richie Shaffer	443	3.0	67	-1	-0.2	Greg Jelks
Jake Hager	534	2.5	56	3	-0.3	Yamaico Navarro
Justin Christian	449	3.3	71	3	-0.3	Gerald Williams
Allan Dykstra	423	3.5	82	-2	-0.4	Josh Whitesell
Mike Fontenot	359	2.9	64	-1	-0.4	Ron Oester
Ali Solis	253	2.0	40	1	-0.4	Pascual Matos
Jerry Sands	393	3.1	74	0	-0.5	Paul Torres
Vince Belnome	460	3.5	82	-1	-0.5	Todd Self
Ray Olmedo	383	2.2	45	-1	-1.3	Willy Miranda
Jeremy Moore	369	2.6	59	-1	-1.3	Jason Ross
Wilson Betemit	317	2.8	62	-4	-1.7	Alan Cockrell

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Alex Cobb	R	27	29	29	171.7	152	54	13	153	65	61
Chris Archer	R	26	31	30	170.0	150	65	14	154	71	66
Drew Smyly	L	26	27	26	145.7	139	40	16	125	57	53
Matt Moore	L	26	23	23	126.3	117	64	14	113	60	56
Jake McGee	L	28	71	0	63.7	81	17	5	47	18	17
Brad Boxberger	R	27	65	0	74.7	103	32	8	53	25	23
Jake Odorizzi	R	25	28	27	147.3	130	59	18	140	74	69
Nate Karns	R	27	26	24	133.0	125	59	18	124	67	63
Matt Andriese	R	25	26	24	138.3	93	44	16	142	72	67
Alex Colome	R	26	20	19	101.7	69	50	8	100	51	48
Merrill Kelly	R	26	28	16	111.0	79	46	11	112	58	54
Erik Bedard	L	36	20	18	97.7	85	44	12	96	51	48
Grant Balfour	R	37	60	0	56.7	58	28	5	46	24	22
Jeff Beliveau	L	28	55	0	56.3	60	28	5	48	24	22
Grayson Garvin	L	25	18	18	61.7	41	22	6	64	32	30
Jose Dominguez	R	24	38	0	41.0	46	22	3	34	17	16
Kirby Yates	R	28	54	0	59.3	63	33	6	51	27	25
Bryce Stowell	R	28	35	0	43.0	43	20	4	38	19	18
Enny Romero	L	24	25	25	123.7	93	62	16	126	71	66
Ernesto Frieri	R	29	61	0	58.3	75	25	9	48	27	25
Steve Geltz	R	27	44	0	55.0	56	28	7	49	27	25
Brandon Gomes	R	30	50	0	59.0	52	21	8	56	30	28
Mike Montgomery	L	25	24	23	119.7	71	55	15	126	71	66
Josh Lueke	R	30	54	0	69.3	54	23	8	71	35	33
Michael Kohn	R	29	61	0	55.0	54	37	7	48	29	27
C.J. Riefenhauser	L	25	51	0	64.3	48	30	7	64	34	32
Jake Thompson	R	25	49	0	61.3	40	27	6	63	33	31
Blake Snell	L	22	24	24	101.0	82	75	13	100	63	59
Doug Mathis	R	32	23	11	81.3	47	48	11	89	52	49

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Alex Cobb	171.7	722	21.0%	7.5%	.283	3.20	3.25	86	87
Chris Archer	170.0	729	20.6%	8.9%	.285	3.49	3.56	93	95
Drew Smyly	145.7	602	23.1%	6.6%	.269	3.27	3.31	88	89
Matt Moore	126.3	556	21.0%	11.5%	.277	3.99	4.13	107	111
Jake McGee	63.7	255	31.8%	6.7%	.278	2.40	2.15	64	58
Brad Boxberger	74.7	309	33.3%	10.4%	.278	2.77	3.01	74	81
Jake Odorizzi	147.3	641	20.3%	9.2%	.286	4.21	4.14	113	111
Nate Karns	133.0	582	21.5%	10.1%	.285	4.26	4.36	114	117
Matt Andriese	138.3	601	15.5%	7.3%	.286	4.36	4.24	117	113
Alex Colome	101.7	455	15.2%	11.0%	.286	4.25	4.29	114	115
Merrill Kelly	111.0	491	16.1%	9.4%	.290	4.38	4.27	117	114
Erik Bedard	97.7	433	19.6%	10.2%	.291	4.42	4.27	118	114
Grant Balfour	56.7	244	23.8%	11.5%	.270	3.49	3.50	93	94
Jeff Beliveau	56.3	245	24.5%	11.4%	.291	3.51	3.64	94	98
Grayson Garvin	61.7	271	15.1%	8.1%	.293	4.38	4.12	117	110
Jose Dominguez	41.0	179	25.7%	12.3%	.295	3.51	3.51	94	94
Kirby Yates	59.3	262	24.1%	12.6%	.289	3.79	3.93	102	105
Bryce Stowell	43.0	187	23.0%	10.7%	.288	3.77	3.64	101	98
Enny Romero	123.7	559	16.6%	11.1%	.289	4.80	4.82	129	129
Ernesto Frieri	58.3	248	30.3%	10.1%	.287	3.86	3.74	103	100
Steve Geltz	55.0	242	23.1%	11.6%	.286	4.09	4.33	110	116
Brandon Gomes	59.0	254	20.5%	8.3%	.282	4.27	4.04	114	108
Mike Montgomery	119.7	540	13.1%	10.2%	.283	4.96	4.97	133	133
Josh Lueke	69.3	302	17.9%	7.6%	.296	4.28	4.04	115	108
Michael Kohn	55.0	250	21.6%	14.8%	.277	4.42	4.79	118	128
C.J. Riefenhauser	64.3	287	16.7%	10.5%	.288	4.48	4.43	120	119
Jake Thompson	61.3	274	14.6%	9.9%	.289	4.55	4.41	122	118
Blake Snell	101.0	478	17.2%	15.7%	.288	5.26	5.43	141	145
Doug Mathis	81.3	381	12.3%	12.6%	.289	5.42	5.45	145	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Alex Cobb	171.7	7.97	2.83	0.68	119	3.7	Bob Walk
Chris Archer	170.0	7.94	3.44	0.74	108	3.0	Jason Jennings
Drew Smyly	145.7	8.59	2.47	0.99	116	3.0	Ted Lilly
Matt Moore	126.3	8.34	4.56	1.00	95	1.4	Tim Birtsas
Jake McGee	63.7	11.44	2.40	0.71	158	1.3	Rob Murphy
Brad Boxberger	74.7	12.41	3.86	0.96	137	1.2	Brad Lidge
Jake Odorizzi	147.3	7.94	3.60	1.10	90	1.2	Blake Stein
Nate Karns	133.0	8.46	3.99	1.22	89	1.0	Eric Hetzel
Matt Andriese	138.3	6.05	2.86	1.04	87	0.8	Greg Field
Alex Colome	101.7	6.11	4.42	0.71	89	0.8	Mike Torrez
Merrill Kelly	111.0	6.41	3.73	0.89	87	0.5	Sean White
Erik Bedard	97.7	7.83	4.05	1.11	86	0.5	Mark Langston
Grant Balfour	56.7	9.21	4.44	0.79	108	0.4	Ryne Duren
Jeff Beliveau	56.3	9.59	4.48	0.80	108	0.4	Armando Almanza
Grayson Garvin	61.7	5.98	3.21	0.88	87	0.4	Danny Borrell
Jose Dominguez	41.0	10.10	4.83	0.66	108	0.3	Santiago Casilla
Kirby Yates	59.3	9.56	5.01	0.91	100	0.2	Calvin Jones
Bryce Stowell	43.0	9.00	4.19	0.84	101	0.1	Franklyn German
Enny Romero	123.7	6.77	4.51	1.16	79	0.1	Mike Matthews
Ernesto Frieri	58.3	11.58	3.86	1.39	98	0.1	Mike Armstrong
Steve Geltz	55.0	9.16	4.58	1.15	93	0.0	Brian Mallette
Brandon Gomes	59.0	7.93	3.20	1.22	89	-0.2	Tom Niedenfuer
Mike Montgomery	119.7	5.34	4.14	1.13	76	-0.2	Chad Zerbe
Josh Lueke	69.3	7.01	2.99	1.04	88	-0.2	Rob Marquez
Michael Kohn	55.0	8.84	6.05	1.15	86	-0.3	Archie Corbin
C.J. Riefenhauser	64.3	6.72	4.20	0.98	85	-0.4	Anthony Rawson
Jake Thompson	61.3	5.87	3.96	0.88	83	-0.4	Joe Davenport
Blake Snell	101.0	7.31	6.68	1.16	72	-0.5	Nate Cromwell
Doug Mathis	81.3	5.20	5.31	1.22	70	-0.7	Ken Ray

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.