Archive for July, 2015

Front Office Ratings, By the Community

There is no good known method for rating all the front offices. Every team has a front office, consisting of a general manager and a bunch of other guys, and fans talk about those front offices, but critical evaluation is hard. One could, I suppose, just think about wins and losses, but that seems an over-simplification. So this is the second part of a project, a project that depended upon your participation. Just the other day, I posted polls for every team in baseball, and I asked for front-office ratings. It’s crowdsourced evaluation, and while there’s a difference between crowd evaluation and the actual truth, I’m no less interested in perception of the front offices. Presented below is how people think. Who isn’t interested in how people think?

How good is a front office? It’s a very simple question, that’s also an extremely complicated question. I tried to untangle the front office from ownership. I tried to untangle the front office from the player-development people. The question is, basically: if a front office were given average resources, how many championships would it win over a million season repetitions? More than average, fewer than average, or exactly average? That’s not a possible thing to know, but that doesn’t mean the community didn’t have opinions. Some of them were very strong.

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Carter Capps Has Become Baseball’s Most Unhittable Pitcher

Carter Capps allowed a three-run single on Tuesday. That’s both pretty bad and pretty weird. Three-run singles might be a post topic of their own, but the most interesting thing didn’t have anything to do with the play result. Before Xander Bogaerts ever swung the bat, Capps threw a fastball, and I’ll excerpt conveniently from an MLB.com entry by Ian Browne:

Bogaerts hung in on a pitch that had a perceived velocity of 105.55 mph, the highest number of any pitch in the Major Leagues this season, according to Statcast™. The pitch looked that fast to Bogaerts, thanks to an extension of 9.5 feet by Capps.

This sounds complicated, but it’s simple to understand. Not a whole lot of time passed between Capps releasing the ball and the ball arriving around home plate. That’s all perceived velocity is — a kind of measure of flight time. According to Statcast, this year, no pitch has had a smaller flight time than the one Bogaerts drilled for a hit. That’s remarkable, on Bogaerts’ part, and that’s remarkable, on Capps’ part. Capps’ part, we’re becoming more familiar with.

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The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing on any of McDaniel’s updated prospect lists or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

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A Case for Darren O’Day’s All-Stardom

As Craig Calcaterra correctly points out at Hardball Talk, Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost has somewhat joylessly brought ultra-utility types aboard the American League All-Star roster instead of selecting players with bigger reputations.

But can ya blame Yost? You might recall that he got wicked close to winning a World Series just nine months ago. In a Game 7 where every last doggone base was weighted with incomprehensible leverage, playing that game at home nudged forward the Royals’ chances at winning by precious, precious percentage points. With this year’s Royals actually plausible World Series contestants — as opposed to their then-implausible candidacy at this time last year — Yost has unique motivation to play the All-Star Game to win.

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J.D. Martinez: Right-Handed Lefty Power Hitter

If you’ve been paying attention to baseball during the past month, you probably know that J.D. Martinez has been on a pretty good run. That might be an understatement: he’s hit 15 home runs in the past 31 days, four more than the next-best mark (Albert Pujols). If home runs aren’t your thing, he’s also first in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO over that span. Martinez has been out of his mind recently, and he’s been out of his mind in an even more extreme way than we’re used to seeing from him.

Let’s start with a few names. Below is the complete list of right-handed hitters who have hit a home run to either center field or right field at Comerica Park this season:

It’s not an extensive list, because hitting home runs to those areas of Comerica Park is difficult if you’re right handed: the right-field fence is 11 feet tall once you get toward right center, and center field is, quite simply, where fly balls go to die. The names on this list have to possess a lot of raw power, obviously. Exhibit A, Martinez’ first hit of the season:


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Paul Sporer FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/15

11:59
Paul Sporer: Hey everybody, we’ll get going very shortly. I’m relieving Dave Cameron today, though it’ll be more the traditional 1-inning use (i.e. 60-90 minutes of chatting) as opposed to my normal multi-inning relief chats (multiple hours) just bc of scheduling.

12:00
Comment From Jon
Hey Paul! Do you like any of these RPs for save speculation? Will Smith, Tazawa, Soriano, Strop, Jim Johnson, Delabar, Cecil, Hudson, Burgos, Siegrist

12:00
Paul Sporer: Smith is very interesting if KRod is moved (and he should be). Otherwise, I’m looking at Tazawa for a similar reason and Hudson as a long-shot sleeper-type

12:00
Comment From Jon
Which side do you like in a keeper? Polanco+ AJ Ramos or Odor + McCullers

12:01
Paul Sporer: That’s not bad, but I’d lean the first side

12:01
Comment From AL Pitching Coach
It’s Paul!!! What an unexpected treat for Wednesday! I’m in an AL-only league looking to scoop up the next impact SP to be called up from the minors. Am I right in thinking the top 3 options are Jose Berrios, Brian Johnson and Luis Severino? If so, would you be so kind as to rank the three in terms of 2015 impact, as well as tell me anything you feel relevant in their regards? Your help is greatly appreciated.

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Should Billy Burns Stop Switch-Hitting?

As hard as it might be to believe right now, Oakland front office asked center fielder Billy Burns to consider ending the switch-hitter experiment and bat solely from the right side when they acquired him. “It was presented as an idea, and it wasn’t something they wanted to do during the season,” Burns admitted, but they did mention it. And it makes a little sense, since Burns came to switch-hitting in professional ball, and he slugged about 20% worse from the left side in the minors.

What’s the strangest about this revelation is that Burns has been so good from the left side in the major leagues so far. And though batting average on balls in play is complicated, and small-sample results aren’t any better when you’ve cut them in half, there might actually be some evidence that Burns is a better hitter from the left side. His approach from that side fits his tools better.

Maybe the Athletics were right. Maybe Burns should stop switch-hitting. Maybe he should only hit from the *left* side.

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NERD Game Scores: Ongoing Houston-Cleveland Series Event

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Cleveland | 19:10 ET
Straily (4.2 IP, 75 xFIP-) vs. Bauer (97.1 IP, 109 xFIP-)
This represents the third consecutive day on which the Houston-Cleveland game has been recognized as the day’s most compelling. Please note that it is not the author’s intention to endorse either club, specifically. Indeed, what one finds here isn’t the product of the author’s own judgment, at all, but rather of a series of algorithms designed to measure the likely aesthetic appeal of a game. And consider: have algorithms ever led people astray? Do algorithms harbor hurtful biases that hurt people? Was it an algorithm which bestowed upon Rob Carroll and not the present author the academic excellence award in fifth grade in Ms. Jones’ class, and then the author’s parents were like, “You let Rob beat you? Rob Carroll? Why do you even bother living?” No, is the answer in all three cases.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio.

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How to Bunt for a Double

Over the past several years — going back to 2010 — there have been seven bunt doubles in Major League Baseball. Had I written this story a day ago, I would’ve said there have been six. On Tuesday in Kansas City, Alcides Escobar put down a bunt for a double in the eighth inning of a game against Tampa Bay. Escobar didn’t end up scoring — and the game story was entirely about the ninth-inning hero — but this isn’t a page about game recaps. The Royals won, but I’m more interested in the hit.

What does a bunt double look like? I’ve written about these a couple times before, but I do that because they’re so curious. Just off the top of your head, a bunt double doesn’t seem like it ought to be possible. Infielders always have bunts surrounded. How does one end up with a bunt double instead of a bunt single and an error? Using what video is available, let’s break down what’s probably an incomplete list of the ways. I’m sure there are other ways, but this is what recently has happened.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1184: When Would You Want Your World Series?

Ben and Sam discuss the optimal distribution of World Series wins across an average lifespan.