2016 Positional Power Rankings: Relief Pitchers (#16-30)

We continue the 2016 Positional Power Rankings — finish them, in fact — by looking at the sometimes difficult-to-project bullpens of each of the 30 major-league franchises. Here, in this article, we will examine the bottom half of baseball’s relief-pitching corps, with Craig Edwards handling the better half of the bullpen marriage. If this is your first go around, here’s an introduction to help you out. Now here’s a graphic detailing where each of the bullpens stand:

Some really good teams on that graph. Some not-so-good teams on that graph. We turn our attention to the not-so-good ones, who, even though they may have vastly improved (hey, Rockies!), still find themselves performing the metaphorical mop-up duties of the 2016 bullpen power rankings.

Onto the relievers!

#16 Rockies

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Jake McGee	65.0	10.3	2.8	0.9	.310	76.8 %	3.15	3.14	1.5
Jason Motte	65.0	7.3	2.6	1.3	.307	72.5 %	4.33	4.33	0.2
Chad Qualls	55.0	7.5	2.1	0.9	.314	71.5 %	3.78	3.56	0.7
Justin Miller	55.0	8.7	3.2	1.0	.309	72.9 %	3.87	3.85	0.4
Boone Logan	45.0	9.9	3.6	1.0	.319	72.9 %	3.91	3.73	0.3
Miguel Castro	40.0	8.3	3.9	1.0	.315	71.3 %	4.38	4.19	0.1
Chris Rusin	35.0	5.4	2.6	1.2	.316	69.0 %	4.81	4.62	0.0
Jason Gurka	30.0	7.3	3.1	1.0	.312	71.2 %	4.27	4.19	0.0
Christian Bergman	25.0	5.3	2.1	1.5	.312	68.4 %	5.10	4.95	-0.1
Scott Oberg	20.0	7.5	4.0	1.1	.309	71.2 %	4.46	4.51	0.0
Adam Ottavino	15.0	9.5	3.1	0.9	.312	74.3 %	3.51	3.51	0.0
Jeff Hoffman	10.0	6.9	3.3	1.2	.312	71.2 %	4.57	4.57	0.0
Carlos Estevez	10.0	8.2	3.1	1.1	.314	71.8 %	4.13	4.01	0.0
The Others	55.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	525.0	8.1	3.0	1.1	.313	71.9 %	4.13	4.03	3.0

What a difference a year makes! Last March, we had this bullpen projected for 0.5 WAR and 28th place. This year, they’ve made it up to 3.0 and 16th. Team sports represent one of the few arenas in which an entity could make so drastic a transformation in one calendar year, and the process, dear readers, was quite simple: fire most everyone and hire new people! It seems primed to work, at least on paper, and before anything has actually happened. That is confidence.

As with anything that happens in relation to pitching half of a season’s games at Coors Field, however, the outcomes of this bullpen could be quite volatile. With a completely revamped back end of Jake McGee, Jason Motte, and Chad Qualls, the Rockies would appear to have three very solid end-of-game options. But that papers over the fact that only one of these pitchers (Qualls) is a solid ground-ball pitcher, and even he has always had his share of home-run issues (career 13.1% HR/FB rate). Even if the batted-ball outcomes might appear slightly scary on the surface in relation to homer-happy Coors Field, the Rockies should at least have a solid bullpen this coming season, and a vastly improved one from 2015.

None of this mentions the hopeful return of Adam Ottavino, one of the darlings of the first month of the 2015 season. Should he return to full health sometime around the All-Star break (he’s just started a throwing program on his way back from Tommy John surgery), he could provide a serious shot in the arm that could elevate the overall production of this bullpen.

#17 Pirates

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Mark Melancon	65.0	8.2	1.8	0.6	.302	76.3 %	2.69	2.84	1.4
Tony Watson	65.0	8.3	2.2	0.6	.299	75.3 %	2.93	3.11	1.0
Arquimedes Caminero	55.0	9.0	3.4	0.8	.300	74.3 %	3.43	3.63	0.3
Neftali Feliz	55.0	7.9	3.1	0.8	.303	73.8 %	3.58	3.67	0.2
Jared Hughes	45.0	5.8	2.9	0.6	.304	72.0 %	3.66	3.93	0.0
Cory Luebke	40.0	7.3	3.1	1.0	.301	69.3 %	4.15	4.06	0.0
Jeff Locke	35.0	7.0	3.2	0.8	.306	71.2 %	4.00	3.96	0.0
Kyle Lobstein	30.0	6.2	2.7	0.8	.310	70.6 %	4.03	3.91	0.0
Juan Nicasio	25.0	7.7	3.5	0.8	.306	71.9 %	3.94	3.88	0.0
Rob Scahill	20.0	7.0	3.3	0.8	.306	71.6 %	3.96	4.01	0.0
Trey Haley	15.0	8.4	5.0	0.8	.304	72.7 %	4.13	4.23	0.0
John Holdzkom	10.0	10.2	4.7	0.6	.307	74.9 %	3.37	3.45	0.0
Andrew Schugel	10.0	6.2	2.7	0.9	.311	70.2 %	4.19	4.08	0.0
Guido Knudson	10.0	7.9	3.8	0.9	.308	72.5 %	4.06	4.09	0.0
The Others	16.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	496.0	7.7	3.0	0.8	.304	72.9 %	3.57	3.65	2.9

I am fairly confident in stating that I am not the only baseball fan/analyst who thinks Mark Melancon is older than he is. I’m not sure whether he’s simply one of those players who looks older, or whether my internal baseball clock refuses to believe that he only broke into the majors in 2009. In truth, Melancon is just 31. In fact, at the time of this writing, it is his birthday, and a I’d like to extend sentiments for a happy birthday to the Pirates’ closer.

All of this has a point, of course, and it’s that there are a few indicators that Melancon might be slipping a little bit: there was the 2015 dip in velocity on his hard pitches, and a subsequent loss in strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate. Even though he has been one of the best relievers in the majors by ERA over the past three years, there are indicators that there might be a few cracks in the armor. Is this the reason the Pirates moved from the 11th spot in 2015’s power rankings to 17th in 2016? Not at all. The Pirates bullpen is actually projected to account for 0.7 greater WAR than at this point in 2015, but the best bullpens in baseball have simply gotten much, much better.

Regardless of their ranking, the Pirates are set to use their top two of Melancon and Tony Watson heavily in 2016, as they’ve done for the past three years: they rank second and first, respectively, in relief innings pitched in baseball over that time span. And, while they are some of the best relievers in the majors at run prevention, the bullpen after them has many question marks. Can Arquimedes Caminero finally match results with velocity? Will Neftali Feliz turn it around after a terrible 2015? Does Cory Luebke come back from his second Tommy John surgery and provide meaningful production? The returns from spring training are mostly positive so far, but the final answers to these questions will dictate where the Pirates bullpen finds itself on this list at the end of the season.

#18 Giants

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Santiago Casilla	65.0	8.0	3.2	0.6	.289	75.5 %	3.03	3.43	0.5
Sergio Romo	65.0	9.3	2.1	0.8	.298	77.5 %	2.81	3.01	1.0
Hunter Strickland	55.0	9.9	2.2	0.7	.296	78.0 %	2.55	2.71	1.0
Josh Osich	55.0	8.8	3.5	0.8	.299	75.2 %	3.29	3.54	0.2
George Kontos	45.0	7.2	2.4	0.9	.294	74.0 %	3.43	3.66	0.1
Chris Heston	40.0	6.9	3.1	0.8	.300	71.6 %	3.77	3.91	0.0
Javier Lopez	35.0	6.6	3.7	0.6	.288	72.7 %	3.48	3.82	0.0
Cory Gearrin	30.0	8.6	3.4	0.7	.300	73.4 %	3.41	3.54	0.0
Steven Okert	25.0	9.4	3.9	0.8	.302	74.4 %	3.51	3.64	0.0
Mike Broadway	20.0	9.6	2.7	0.8	.301	76.4 %	2.99	3.14	0.0
Kyle Crick	15.0	9.7	7.3	0.7	.304	72.7 %	4.44	4.61	-0.1
Derek Law	10.0	9.1	4.1	0.7	.301	74.7 %	3.37	3.56	0.0
Joan Gregorio	10.0	8.2	4.2	0.9	.301	72.5 %	3.98	4.11	0.0
Total	438.0	8.5	3.0	0.7	.294	75.3 %	3.12	3.38	2.9

The Giants won the World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014. That is not news. However, an interesting trend in those seasons — and one that pertains to our purposes today — is that the Giants had an above-average bullpen in only one of those campaigns, 2010. Their bullpen produced 5.4 WAR that season, as opposed to 1.5 WAR in 2012 and just 1.2 WAR in 2014. This is not to say that a strict causation exists between championships and bullpen strength, but that, in an era of increased faith in the power of talented bullpens to deliver overall club success, the Giants have not put much stock in it when building their teams.

In fact, we could find more evidence for that bullpen posture. That was the case in 2015, when their bullpen accounted for just 1.7 WAR, good for ninth-worst in baseball. They’re once again set up to be in the bottom half in 2016, relying on a somewhat aging pair of Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. Even so, Romo seems to have regained his dominant pre-2015 form, and Hunter Strickland’s step forward last season at least gives the Giants a young, fire-balling setup option and possible dark-horse closer should either of the aforementioned duo slip.

After those three, Josh Osich looks to be a potentially useful lefty, as he showed platoon-busting abilities in a small sample size during 2015. As such, he figures to operate in a wider capacity than say Javier Lopez, who will operate as the designated LOOGY.

#19 Brewers

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Jeremy Jeffress	65.0	8.8	3.3	0.6	.316	73.6 %	3.38	3.32	1.1
Tyler Thornburg	65.0	8.0	3.8	1.0	.305	72.3 %	4.22	4.27	0.1
Corey Knebel	55.0	10.9	3.5	0.9	.309	75.8 %	3.29	3.31	0.8
Michael Blazek	55.0	8.1	3.4	0.9	.304	73.1 %	3.78	3.87	0.3
Franklin Morales	45.0	7.1	3.1	1.0	.306	72.0 %	4.05	4.12	0.1
Blaine Boyer	40.0	6.7	2.6	0.9	.305	71.2 %	3.93	3.86	0.1
Will Smith	35.0	11.6	3.3	0.9	.316	77.7 %	3.01	3.00	0.1
Chris Capuano	30.0	8.4	3.0	1.0	.315	72.0 %	3.93	3.76	0.1
Tyler Cravy	25.0	7.5	3.2	1.1	.306	71.5 %	4.23	4.27	0.0
David Goforth	20.0	7.3	4.2	1.0	.307	71.5 %	4.44	4.46	0.0
Junior Guerra	15.0	10.6	3.8	1.0	.311	75.0 %	3.67	3.66	0.0
Yhonathan Barrios	10.0	7.1	3.6	1.0	.307	70.9 %	4.35	4.30	0.0
Zack Jones	10.0	10.1	5.1	1.0	.308	73.5 %	4.20	4.22	0.0
Jacob Barnes	10.0	8.3	3.5	0.9	.312	71.6 %	4.07	3.95	0.0
Damien Magnifico	10.0	7.1	3.8	1.1	.306	70.5 %	4.58	4.57	0.0
The Others	26.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	516.0	8.5	3.4	0.9	.309	72.9 %	3.86	3.84	2.6

After a season in which they cracked the top 10, the Brewers were once again poised to retain a spot in the top 15 of these hallowed rankings. Then tragedy struck: Will Smith, their best reliever from 2015 (1.4 WAR) and at least partial heir apparent to the closer role, tore a knee ligament taking his spikes off after a game last Thursday. Regardless of whether he needs surgery or not, he’ll miss significant time, throwing the back-end of the Milwaukee pen into an unexpected reconfiguration.

Jeremy Jeffress is now likely to claim sole possession of the closer role, relying on his mid- to high-90s sinker to induce elite ground-ball rates. Given his repertoire, there’s the potential for a very solid reliever and closer there. He’ll be backed up mainly by the huge and promising arm of Corey Knebel, whose combination of power curve and fastball reminds our own Eno Sarris of the dominant Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles. Knebel is the future here, but he’s also subject to greater team-control, contractually speaking, than Jeffress and Smith, so he’ll probably be the last of the bunch to get the shot at ninth inning duties.

After that, the situation becomes a little murkier. Tyler Thornburg profiles more as a middle reliever, Franlkin Morales will most likely be used more in situational roles, and Michael Blazek has yet to cement the idea that his minor-league control problems are behind him. Until Smith returns, this bullpen will probably be searching for their third great arm, in turn relegating them to the bottom half of a very strong class of 2016 bullpens.

#20 Twins

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Glen Perkins	65.0	9.1	2.2	1.0	.309	76.1 %	3.36	3.38	1.0
Kevin Jepsen	65.0	8.5	3.4	0.9	.306	73.7 %	3.69	3.73	0.6
Trevor May	55.0	8.5	2.8	1.0	.316	72.0 %	3.94	3.70	0.4
Casey Fien	55.0	7.4	1.9	1.1	.304	73.3 %	3.73	3.75	0.3
Michael Tonkin	45.0	8.2	2.7	0.9	.311	72.7 %	3.73	3.67	0.2
Fernando Abad	40.0	8.0	3.0	1.1	.303	73.1 %	3.92	4.06	0.1
Ryan Pressly	35.0	7.5	3.5	0.8	.311	71.6 %	4.00	3.86	0.0
Ryan O’Rourke	30.0	9.0	4.2	1.2	.307	73.3 %	4.29	4.34	0.0
Alex Meyer	25.0	8.9	4.2	1.0	.315	71.5 %	4.28	4.12	0.0
J.R. Graham	20.0	7.2	3.1	0.8	.315	70.5 %	4.08	3.94	0.0
Mike Strong	15.0	7.6	4.0	1.0	.305	72.0 %	4.22	4.31	0.0
Pat Dean	10.0	4.9	1.9	1.3	.311	67.2 %	4.90	4.68	0.0
Mason Melotakis	10.0	7.1	4.2	1.1	.313	70.1 %	4.73	4.68	0.0
J.T. Chargois	10.0	8.3	4.2	1.0	.311	72.0 %	4.25	4.19	0.0
The Others	24.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	504.0	8.2	3.1	1.0	.310	72.7 %	3.92	3.88	2.5

The Glen Perkins train keeps rolling on in Minnesota, as the solid but far from elite 33-year-old continues to ply his trade. Indeed, Perkins is most likely safe atop his throne — as he has been for years now — as the Twins once again field a largely unexciting supporting cast of characters behind him. Kevin Jepsen is likely to serve as the main setup man and next in line to Perkins for the closer role, even if the control issues continue to be somewhat worrisome.

There is some excitement to be had here, however: with confirmation a few weeks ago that Trevor May will be used out of the bullpen (at least to start the season), we might be getting a hint at who the Twins view as their long-term closing option. Team-controlled through 2020, May has a big arm and has already produced solid results as a reliever, posting over 10 strikeouts per nine and a sub-3.00 ERA when used in that role. Even though the team maintained that his long-term future is as a starter, another season of good results out of the pen might have them changing their tune.

Casey Fien, despite posting a bullpen-best 0.8 WAR in 2015, had a few scary indicators of what might possibly come in 2016: his strikeout rate was cut in half since a career-best 29.9% rate in 2013, and a balky shoulder is not exactly encouraging for a 32-year-old. He’ll likely assume a role in the middle to back-end, with the rest battling for situational/support roles.

#21 Braves

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Jason Grilli	65.0	10.5	3.0	0.8	.306	77.6 %	2.94	3.06	1.2
Arodys Vizcaino	65.0	10.0	3.5	0.8	.305	76.2 %	3.18	3.25	0.9
Jim Johnson	55.0	7.5	3.2	0.7	.314	71.2 %	3.80	3.70	0.3
Alexi Ogando	55.0	8.4	3.6	1.0	.300	73.5 %	3.79	3.96	0.0
Daniel Winkler	45.0	8.8	3.1	1.1	.300	73.0 %	3.82	3.91	0.0
Jose Ramirez	40.0	9.3	4.6	0.9	.302	72.9 %	3.89	3.96	0.0
Alex Torres	35.0	9.2	4.5	0.8	.302	73.3 %	3.69	3.78	0.0
Eric O’Flaherty	30.0	6.9	3.3	0.7	.310	70.8 %	3.90	3.78	0.0
Ian Krol	25.0	9.6	3.6	0.9	.306	74.4 %	3.50	3.56	0.0
Shae Simmons	20.0	10.1	4.0	0.6	.308	74.7 %	3.23	3.25	0.0
Chris Withrow	15.0	10.5	4.6	0.8	.297	75.1 %	3.49	3.64	0.0
Carlos Torres	10.0	8.5	3.1	0.9	.305	74.8 %	3.59	3.69	0.0
Matt Marksberry	10.0	8.0	4.7	1.1	.304	71.4 %	4.55	4.64	0.0
Daniel Burawa	10.0	8.8	4.6	0.9	.304	72.5 %	4.07	4.11	0.0
Mauricio Cabrera	10.0	8.5	6.0	0.9	.306	70.8 %	4.73	4.76	0.0
The Others	16.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	506.0	9.0	3.7	0.8	.305	73.6 %	3.63	3.69	2.4

The ageless wonder Jason Grilli continues to fly in the face of the slow march of time, proving once again that a select few are seemingly made to throw baseballs millions of times over with little physical repercussion to their arms. Even though an Achilles injury shortened his 2015, he’s poised to once again assume the role atop the Braves’ bullpen, providing the elite K-BB% he’s posted for three of the past four years. While it will be interesting to see how Grilli comes back from injury, there’s seemingly a lot left in the tank.

Backing him up will be Arodys Vizcaino, who has a fastball that flirts with triple digits and a devastating mid-80s curve. The dominating stuff is there for him if he can harness it, and he’s almost certainly the team’s closer of the future. Given the fact that Grilli will likely be traded before the deadline, Vizcaino is a candidate for a late-season closing role, though his coming arbitration could see the Braves try to shield him from racking up too many of them. In that case, Jim Johnson could see the late-inning work, and manager Fredi Gonzalez has already hinted that he might go with an early-season combination of Grilli, Vizcaino, and Johnson while Grilli fully works back from injury.

The final pieces of the bullpen are largely unexciting, as Alexi Ogando and the others figure to be around replacement-level. Daniel Winkler could be an intriguing and deceptive arm, as he posted great strikeout and walk rates in ~70 innings at Double-A in 2014 before requiring Tommy John surgery. As a Rule 5 pick, he must make the Opening Day roster or be sent back to Colorado.

#22 Angels

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Huston Street	65.0	8.1	2.7	1.1	.292	75.3 %	3.57	3.80	0.4
Joe Smith	65.0	7.7	2.6	0.7	.299	73.5 %	3.32	3.49	0.7
Fernando Salas	55.0	8.9	2.2	1.0	.303	74.3 %	3.36	3.39	0.6
Mike Morin	55.0	8.5	2.6	0.9	.302	73.9 %	3.49	3.57	0.3
Jose Alvarez	45.0	7.9	2.9	0.8	.301	72.9 %	3.59	3.72	0.2
Al Alburquerque	40.0	9.8	3.9	0.8	.304	74.4 %	3.51	3.58	0.2
Deolis Guerra	35.0	8.3	2.7	1.1	.303	73.3 %	3.74	3.85	0.0
Cam Bedrosian	30.0	9.9	4.2	0.8	.308	74.2 %	3.59	3.60	0.1
Cory Rasmus	25.0	9.6	3.8	0.9	.299	75.1 %	3.55	3.75	0.0
Matt Shoemaker	20.0	7.6	2.1	1.2	.298	72.9 %	3.81	3.90	0.0
Victor Alcantara	15.0	6.9	4.7	1.0	.295	71.3 %	4.46	4.71	0.0
Javy Guerra	10.0	6.9	3.3	1.0	.301	70.9 %	4.27	4.34	0.0
A.J. Achter	10.0	8.0	3.1	1.2	.296	73.5 %	3.99	4.20	0.0
The Others	21.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	491.0	8.4	3.0	0.9	.301	73.6 %	3.62	3.73	2.3

At this time last year, FanGraphs’ own bon vivant and huckster of college arms Carson Cistulli reflected on Huston Street’s propensity to post ridiculous left-on-base rates thusly:

“Much like a divorced father who’s always forgetting when it’s his day to pick up the kids from school, Angels reliever Huston Street has become accustomed to stranding people. In the case of Street, however, it’s not children suffering the baleful effects of their parents’ legal separation who he’s stranding, but rather major-league baseball runners.”

Mr. Cistulli was right: between 2013 and 2014, Street recorded a strand rate of 96.1%, by far the highest rate of any pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched. The question in 2015 was: had Street found some secret sauce? Did he have simple powers of focus and run prevention that kicked in only when runners reached base?

The answer, communicated in a savage and unsurprising manner, was resoundingly, catastrophically no. In 2015, Street’s LOB% plummeted to 80.4%, taking his ERA along for the ride. And, as he did last year, Street now finds himself as the leader of a bullpen full of arms that project on or better than his level. In this way, we can fondly think of the Angels’ bullpen as a bastion of parity, though one whose parity serves no great purpose. Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, and even Mike Morin could theoretically step into the closer role and produce close to Street’s level, though they will likely array themselves behind him in a configuration likely to change as the season goes on.

#23 Padres

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Fernando Rodney	65.0	9.1	3.9	0.8	.302	72.9 %	3.71	3.89	0.2
Brandon Maurer	65.0	8.2	2.9	0.8	.303	73.4 %	3.50	3.53	0.6
Drew Pomeranz	55.0	9.6	3.4	0.8	.301	75.8 %	3.27	3.45	0.5
Carlos Villanueva	55.0	8.0	2.7	0.9	.305	73.7 %	3.62	3.67	0.3
Kevin Quackenbush	45.0	9.1	3.4	0.8	.306	74.3 %	3.42	3.46	0.3
Nick Vincent	40.0	9.8	2.9	0.9	.308	75.4 %	3.25	3.24	0.3
Jon Edwards	35.0	10.8	5.1	0.8	.307	75.3 %	3.63	3.77	0.0
Josh Martin	30.0	8.9	3.4	1.0	.308	72.3 %	3.91	3.82	0.0
Luis Perdomo	25.0	6.8	3.7	1.2	.310	69.6 %	4.80	4.73	-0.1
Buddy Baumann	20.0	8.5	3.3	0.8	.307	73.3 %	3.63	3.65	0.0
Leonel Campos	15.0	11.3	4.4	0.7	.310	76.1 %	3.21	3.17	0.0
Tayron Guerrero	10.0	9.0	4.7	0.9	.307	72.6 %	4.12	4.16	0.0
Cory Mazzoni	10.0	9.2	2.9	0.8	.312	73.1 %	3.47	3.32	0.0
Ryan Buchter	10.0	10.3	5.5	0.7	.306	73.9 %	3.74	3.83	0.0
Blake Smith	10.0	8.8	4.6	0.8	.308	71.7 %	4.04	3.98	0.0
Cesar Vargas	10.0	8.4	3.1	0.9	.307	73.5 %	3.65	3.70	0.0
Total	489.0	9.0	3.5	0.8	.305	73.9 %	3.59	3.65	2.3

The other shoe finally dropped for Fernando Rodney in 2015, as his high-wire act finally caught up to him. All it took was a inflated HR/FB% to knock him from his role as the Mariners’ closer, who traded him to the Cubs to work in middle relief. Now 39 years old, he’ll most likely get one more shot at closing — this time for the Padres. His leash is likely to be very short, however, as seemingly better options wait in the wings.

Those options start with Brandon Maurer, who has struggled to find a consistent role over the past few years: after a few stints in the Mariners’ rotation, he found full-time work in the Padres bullpen in 2015. He discovered an incredible changeup there, but this spring he once again has been trying to nail down a rotation spot. With the news of the past week, it sounds like that experiment is over for the time being, and Maurer will move into a setup role to begin the season.

Another potential option is Drew Pomeranz, who showed a much-improved strikeout rate out of the Oakland bullpen in 2015 when compared to his starting statistics. At the time of this writing he’s also vying for a rotation spot, so he’s likely to at least split time between the bullpen and rotation. An interesting arm is Jon Edwards, who has shown incredible strikeout ability yet no small measure of wildness throughout his career.

#24 Diamondbacks

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Brad Ziegler	65.0	6.0	2.8	0.6	.296	73.0 %	3.40	3.74	0.5
Daniel Hudson	65.0	9.3	3.1	0.9	.300	75.8 %	3.34	3.49	0.7
Tyler Clippard	55.0	9.3	3.3	1.1	.281	77.8 %	3.29	3.87	0.2
Randall Delgado	55.0	9.1	3.6	0.9	.301	75.5 %	3.55	3.75	0.3
Josh Collmenter	45.0	6.0	2.1	1.2	.292	73.2 %	3.95	4.28	-0.1
Silvino Bracho	40.0	10.7	2.6	1.0	.302	78.3 %	3.02	3.19	0.3
Andrew Chafin	35.0	7.6	3.4	0.7	.298	73.7 %	3.43	3.62	0.0
Matt Reynolds	30.0	8.0	3.0	1.1	.298	74.4 %	3.85	4.12	0.0
Enrique Burgos	25.0	11.2	5.0	0.9	.309	74.5 %	3.73	3.74	0.0
Evan Marshall	20.0	7.8	3.3	0.8	.308	72.4 %	3.72	3.73	0.0
Sam LeCure	15.0	7.1	3.5	1.1	.299	71.7 %	4.23	4.35	0.0
Dominic Leone	10.0	8.4	3.8	0.8	.303	72.4 %	3.74	3.74	0.0
Keith Hessler	10.0	8.5	3.0	1.0	.304	73.9 %	3.69	3.80	0.0
Jake Barrett	10.0	8.0	3.7	0.9	.302	72.3 %	3.98	4.07	0.0
Cody Hall	10.0	7.7	3.2	1.0	.303	72.8 %	3.87	4.02	0.0
Matt Koch	10.0	5.6	2.2	1.2	.302	69.1 %	4.47	4.48	0.0
Total	493.0	8.3	3.1	0.9	.297	74.6 %	3.54	3.78	2.0

Brad Ziegler is certainly one of the most surprising closers of the past few years, simply based on the fact that he’s a submariner who throws in the mid-80s. Our own Jeff Zimmerman noted something even more unorthodox about his 2015 campaign:

“Brad Ziegler became the first pitcher since Todd Jones in 2007 to accumulate 30 or more Saves with a strikeout per nine rate under five.”

While we’re not ones to put too much stock in number of saves, we are ones to put stock in how teams view their players, and the fact that Ziegler was given the chance to accumulate that many saves speaks to how the Diamondbacks view him. And why not: his ground-ball rate of 72.8% was second only to Zach Britton among qualified relievers, and his ability to limit hard contact (and induce soft contact) is one of the reasons why he sports such a friendly batted-ball profile, despite his lack of strikeouts. He’ll get the first shot at closing, barring injury or performance issues.

Backing Ziegler is Daniel Hudson — who finally got on track in 2015 after two Tommy John surgeries put his career in jeopardy — and Tyler Clippard, who shows no signs of slowing down with his ridiculous and elite pop-up rate. The options thin after those three, though Silvino Bracho is one to watch, given the success of his stuff: he hasn’t posted a strikeout rate below 27.6% at any level of the minors while consistently keeping his walks below average. Even if he fails to make the bullpen out of camp, he’ll likely contribute — and possibly contribute surprisingly — at some point during the season.

#25 Tigers

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Francisco Rodriguez	65.0	8.5	2.4	1.1	.298	74.9 %	3.54	3.63	0.7
Mark Lowe	65.0	9.0	2.8	1.0	.307	73.6 %	3.57	3.56	0.8
Justin Wilson	55.0	8.9	3.6	0.8	.302	73.4 %	3.53	3.59	0.5
Drew VerHagen	55.0	5.8	3.4	0.8	.304	70.2 %	4.24	4.26	0.0
Bruce Rondon	45.0	9.4	4.2	0.9	.312	72.2 %	4.01	3.89	0.1
Kyle Ryan	40.0	5.2	2.7	1.1	.309	68.7 %	4.68	4.54	-0.1
Buck Farmer	35.0	6.7	3.1	1.4	.309	69.1 %	4.97	4.87	-0.1
Blaine Hardy	30.0	8.0	3.2	0.8	.307	73.1 %	3.71	3.74	0.1
Alex Wilson	25.0	5.9	2.5	0.9	.299	71.6 %	3.96	4.09	0.0
Shane Greene	20.0	6.0	2.8	1.2	.313	68.2 %	4.82	4.58	0.0
Bobby Parnell	15.0	6.1	4.6	1.0	.309	68.6 %	4.94	4.80	0.0
Angel Nesbitt	10.0	6.5	4.0	1.2	.307	68.9 %	4.93	4.87	0.0
Jose Valdez	10.0	7.4	4.8	1.1	.300	71.1 %	4.65	4.75	0.0
Jeff Ferrell	10.0	6.9	2.8	1.2	.311	70.6 %	4.54	4.47	0.0
Montreal Robertson	10.0	5.9	4.9	1.2	.309	68.7 %	5.35	5.26	0.0
Total	488.0	7.5	3.2	1.0	.305	71.5 %	4.09	4.08	1.9

By all accounts, Francisco Rodriguez should not be as successful as he is. His average fastball clocked in below 90 mph during 2015, his BABIP spent the second straight year dwelling in the low .200s, and his LOB% continued to be its usual, slightly-inflated self. But Rodriguez still struck out over 25% of batters he faced, he posted a career-low walk rate, and his changeup usage is now almost at the level of his fastball usage. He’s aged, yes, but he’s learned how to pitch better as he’s done so.

For that reason, and the fact that the Tigers don’t have anyone better except for Mark Lowe, Rodriguez will get a long leash atop the bullpen depth chart. We shouldn’t rule out Lowe getting a chance if circumstances arise, however: his 2015 seemed to represent a light bulb illuminating, as his strikeout rate doubled alongside a halving of his walk rate. He’s a a no-brainer setup option and closer in waiting, should the Tigers need it.

The big question mark for the Tigers is the eventual fate of Bruce Rondon: he was optioned to Triple-A yesterday and won’t break camp with the team. We have to expect him to contribute at some point during the season, but his raw talent hasn’t matched up with his on-field performance as of yet. Until he can figure things out, hard-throwing Justin Wilson could get seventh-inning duties, with sinker-balling righty Drew VerHagen likely filling the main middle relief/spot starter role.

#26 Rays

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Danny Farquhar	65.0	9.1	3.0	0.9	.301	74.5 %	3.46	3.53	0.8
Alex Colome	65.0	7.5	2.9	1.0	.301	72.3 %	3.85	3.94	0.2
Xavier Cedeno	55.0	9.3	3.0	0.9	.302	76.5 %	3.22	3.47	0.5
Enny Romero	55.0	8.0	3.9	1.0	.304	71.6 %	4.18	4.18	0.0
Brad Boxberger	45.0	11.1	3.8	1.0	.298	77.6 %	3.19	3.43	0.3
Ryan Webb	40.0	6.3	2.7	0.8	.299	71.3 %	3.76	3.85	0.1
Steve Geltz	35.0	9.2	3.6	1.1	.290	75.0 %	3.62	3.94	0.0
Matt Andriese	30.0	7.3	2.2	0.9	.303	72.9 %	3.56	3.65	0.1
Andrew Bellatti	25.0	7.8	3.2	1.4	.297	71.8 %	4.44	4.59	-0.1
David Carpenter	20.0	8.4	2.9	1.0	.296	74.9 %	3.54	3.77	0.0
Jacob Faria	15.0	8.0	3.5	1.0	.302	72.5 %	4.07	4.18	0.0
Chase Whitley	10.0	7.4	2.7	0.9	.304	72.3 %	3.83	3.90	0.0
Taylor Guerrieri	10.0	7.0	2.8	1.0	.299	71.7 %	4.03	4.16	0.0
The Others	43.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	-0.1
Total	513.0	8.4	3.2	1.0	.302	73.3 %	3.77	3.88	1.9

With the trade of closer Jake McGee to the Rockies and heir apparent Brad Boxberger to multi-month injury early in spring training, the Rays’ bullpen has taken a serious hit since last year’s projection as the second-best in baseball. They now find themselves thin, with Alex Colome the likeliest to see closing duties until Boxberger’s return. He profiles well given his mid- to high-90s fastball, but he has yet to find the strikeouts to match his arsenal, and his use up until now as a long relief option might make such a role change problematic.

Should manager Kevin Cash decide to go another route — or should Colome stumble in the early going — former Mariners reliever Danny Farquhar could step into the role. Though Farquhar’s velocity and peripherals have taken a dive since 2013’s breakout 1.8-WAR campaign, the Rays might be able to find and redirect the promise he showed a few years back, as they often do with reclamation projects. Regardless, Colome and Farquhar are likely to see meaningful innings even when Boxberger comes back, though Colome’s role is probably more malleable than Farquhar’s.

Rounding out the bullpen is main LOOGY Xavier Cedeno, who improved his platoon disadvantage remarkably in 2015. He could see a few more innings early in the season with Boxberger out, as could fellow lefty Enny Romero, of whom Kevin Cash has spoken highly during spring training.

#27 Mariners

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Steve Cishek	65.0	8.5	3.3	0.8	.311	73.2 %	3.67	3.60	0.6
Joaquin Benoit	65.0	9.1	3.1	1.0	.284	77.1 %	3.28	3.70	0.5
Tony Zych	55.0	8.7	2.4	0.9	.308	73.1 %	3.46	3.42	0.6
Cody Martin	55.0	8.1	3.5	1.2	.307	71.8 %	4.39	4.41	-0.2
Vidal Nuno	45.0	7.8	2.1	1.3	.299	72.9 %	3.96	4.07	0.0
Michael Montgomery	40.0	6.9	3.2	0.9	.304	70.2 %	4.19	4.15	0.0
Joel Peralta	35.0	8.3	2.6	1.3	.302	73.5 %	4.06	4.07	0.0
Evan Scribner	30.0	9.3	1.7	1.2	.304	74.7 %	3.44	3.42	0.1
Charlie Furbush	25.0	9.4	2.9	1.0	.300	75.8 %	3.31	3.51	0.0
Jonathan Aro	20.0	7.7	3.1	1.0	.304	72.6 %	4.01	4.06	0.0
Ryan Cook	15.0	8.2	3.7	1.0	.308	71.0 %	4.18	4.04	0.0
David Rollins	10.0	7.4	3.0	1.0	.307	70.9 %	4.18	4.14	0.0
Joe Wieland	10.0	7.0	2.3	1.2	.307	70.5 %	4.31	4.19	0.0
Mayckol Guaipe	10.0	7.2	2.7	1.0	.308	70.7 %	4.20	4.11	0.0
Donn Roach	10.0	4.1	2.7	1.0	.310	67.6 %	4.85	4.72	0.0
Total	478.0	8.2	2.8	1.0	.303	73.1 %	3.80	3.86	1.6

The Mariners bullpen looks almost completely different this March than it did at this point last season, when Fernando Rodney was shooting arrows at everything and nobody while leading the charge. Now Steve Cishek, whose incredible performance between 2011 and 2014 was undone in a 2015 conflagration of strikeout and walk rate explosions, will assume closing duties. The team is hoping that the elite strikeout rates are just waiting to resurface, which by all accounts could happen if Cishek is able to find his slider’s effectiveness again.

The team also signed depth in Evan Scribner and Ryan Cook this offseason, both of whom promptly went down with lat injuries early in camp. In truth, the M’s probably expected a little more out of Scribner  — who has posted one of the best K-BB rates in the majors the past two years despite crazy home run tendencies — than Cook, but nevertheless, the injuries were a blow to their available options.

Those options get extremely thin after Cishek and the ageless journeyman that is Joaquin Benoit, with an unproven — but potentially very good — Tony Zych and uneven Vidal Nuno as the only other reasonable options for important innings. Zych is one to watch, but things could get ugly if he doesn’t work out and the also-unproven Cody Martin has to pitch a lot of high-leverage innings.

#28 Marlins

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
A.J. Ramos	65.0	10.4	4.2	0.7	.296	77.3 %	3.07	3.36	0.8
Mike Dunn	65.0	10.2	3.8	0.8	.302	76.3 %	3.27	3.40	0.7
Bryan Morris	55.0	7.0	3.7	0.7	.305	72.7 %	3.72	3.88	0.1
David Phelps	55.0	7.2	2.9	0.9	.306	72.1 %	3.86	3.89	0.1
Edwin Jackson	45.0	6.7	3.1	0.8	.305	70.1 %	4.13	3.97	0.0
Brad Hand	40.0	7.1	3.3	0.8	.305	71.2 %	3.98	3.96	0.0
Nefi Ogando	35.0	7.3	4.4	0.8	.305	70.7 %	4.38	4.35	-0.1
Raudel Lazo	30.0	8.1	2.9	0.8	.307	72.5 %	3.54	3.51	0.1
Kyle Barraclough	25.0	9.9	5.8	0.6	.301	73.8 %	3.78	3.88	0.0
Brian Ellington	20.0	8.3	4.1	0.8	.302	73.5 %	3.71	3.92	0.0
Scott McGough	15.0	6.5	4.0	0.8	.306	70.7 %	4.30	4.34	0.0
Nick Wittgren	10.0	8.0	2.2	0.8	.307	72.9 %	3.42	3.37	0.0
Tim Berry	10.0	6.3	3.3	1.0	.305	70.1 %	4.38	4.39	0.0
The Others	38.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	-0.1
Total	508.0	8.2	3.7	0.8	.305	72.8 %	3.79	3.84	1.5

With the Marlins, we’ve officially entered the territory of potentially terrible bullpens that aren’t currently terrible because of a multitude of injuries. One injury, yes, to Carter Capps, who likely would have been the Marlins’ closer this year. Any team would drop in their projected ranks if their top option for closing games blew out his elbow, especially if that pitcher was one of the most effective relievers in the game.

But Capps’ injury exposes the limited depth the Marlins have: Miami is now facing the possibility of having only two useful options in A.J. Ramos and Mike Dunn, the latter of whom has always dealt with sometimes serious control issues. Those issues once again came to the forefront in 2015, and they don’t exactly bode well for a reliever who will likely be exposed to many important situations in the year to come.

And so the Marlins have to hope that Ramos dominates like he did last year, and Dunn is able to fix his control problems and succeed in a major setup role. But even if they do, really meaningful innings are going to have to be pitched by guys like ground-baller Bryan Morris, and a bevy of swing men in David Phelps, Edwin Jackson, and Brad Hand. There are quite simply a lot of holes in this bullpen, and not many great arms to fill them.

#29 Reds

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
J.J. Hoover	65.0	8.9	4.0	1.2	.287	75.8 %	3.82	4.29	0.0
Tony Cingrani	65.0	10.5	4.2	1.1	.296	77.1 %	3.57	3.89	0.4
Jumbo Diaz	55.0	9.7	3.0	0.9	.300	75.4 %	3.31	3.43	0.7
Ross Ohlendorf	55.0	9.1	3.0	0.9	.303	74.6 %	3.46	3.61	0.4
Keyvius Sampson	45.0	8.3	4.7	1.2	.300	72.1 %	4.57	4.74	-0.2
Blake Wood	40.0	10.2	4.7	0.9	.303	73.3 %	3.83	3.86	0.1
Chris O’Grady	35.0	8.3	3.0	1.0	.296	75.3 %	3.48	3.84	0.0
Caleb Cotham	30.0	8.9	2.7	1.1	.301	74.0 %	3.66	3.78	0.1
Brandon Finnegan	25.0	9.1	3.7	1.0	.298	74.0 %	3.72	3.92	0.0
Stephen Johnson	20.0	9.2	5.0	1.0	.304	72.8 %	4.23	4.33	0.0
Pedro Villarreal	15.0	7.0	2.4	1.1	.298	72.9 %	3.87	4.07	0.0
Ryan Mattheus	10.0	6.7	2.9	0.9	.307	70.6 %	4.13	4.05	0.0
Amir Garrett	10.0	7.9	4.9	1.1	.299	72.0 %	4.51	4.75	0.0
Rookie Davis	10.0	7.9	2.8	1.2	.305	70.9 %	4.24	4.21	0.0
The Others	22.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	502.0	9.1	3.7	1.1	.300	74.2 %	3.81	4.00	1.5

The Reds were always going to find themselves somewhere toward the bottom of this list, given the gravity of losing a reliever like Aroldis Chapman and the reality of the rebuild they’re undertaking. That’s fine, and given the team’s trajectory, it’s a chance to see if there are a few surprises in their system that can get some meaningful experience.

The back-end of the bullpen, however, doesn’t seem like it’s going to unfold in that manner. The 28-year-old J.J. Hoover, who will officially start the year as the Reds’ closer, quite simply looks like he lacks the stuff to keep the job. He’s always had problems with his walk rate, and his strikeouts have come at the expense of home runs, and vice versa: in 2014, he pitched higher in the zone, getting lots of swinging strikes but giving up a lot of homers in Great American Ballpark; in 2015, he pitched lower in the zone, reducing his home runs but drying up his strikeouts.

So, with that said, Tony Cingrani and/or Jumbo Diaz are likely to see closing duties sooner rather than later, even though they both have serious home run/platoon issues. Diaz has the better stuff, so he’s likely to come out on top should/when Hoover falters. After the carousel of those three, Ross Ohlendorf might be the only other potential arm that can provide some steadiness in the middle-relief role. After him, it gets awfully murky, and by late season we could be seeing some of those aforementioned surprises.

#30 Phillies

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Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
Andrew Bailey	65.0	9.8	3.4	1.4	.304	73.6 %	4.22	4.24	0.0
David Hernandez	65.0	9.6	3.3	1.1	.306	74.8 %	3.81	3.91	0.3
Dalier Hinojosa	55.0	8.8	3.9	1.0	.303	73.3 %	3.90	3.97	0.2
Jeanmar Gomez	55.0	6.5	2.9	0.9	.308	71.3 %	4.07	4.04	0.1
Daniel Stumpf	45.0	8.8	3.6	0.9	.301	74.2 %	3.64	3.83	0.2
Brett Oberholtzer	40.0	6.8	2.3	1.2	.308	69.8 %	4.39	4.22	0.0
James Russell	35.0	7.1	3.0	1.0	.303	72.0 %	4.01	4.09	0.0
Edward Mujica	30.0	7.3	1.9	1.2	.306	71.9 %	3.91	3.88	0.0
Luis Garcia	25.0	8.8	4.2	0.7	.313	73.1 %	3.72	3.65	0.0
Vincent Velasquez	20.0	10.2	3.6	1.0	.307	74.5 %	3.72	3.71	0.0
Elvis Araujo	15.0	9.3	4.5	0.8	.307	73.2 %	3.92	3.85	0.0
Hector Neris	10.0	8.4	3.6	1.2	.305	72.1 %	4.23	4.30	0.0
Michael Mariot	10.0	9.5	3.1	0.9	.308	74.1 %	3.53	3.51	0.0
Severino Gonzalez	10.0	6.4	2.0	1.4	.309	67.6 %	4.80	4.55	0.0
Colton Murray	10.0	8.7	4.0	1.0	.308	72.2 %	4.13	4.12	0.0
Mario Hollands	10.0	7.9	3.5	0.8	.309	72.2 %	3.92	3.86	0.0
The Others	18.0	8.2	4.0	1.2	.322	69.5 %	4.73	4.50	0.0
Total	518.0	8.4	3.3	1.1	.306	72.7 %	4.01	4.01	0.9

The state of the Phillies bullpen can be summed up as such: about a week ago, Andrew Bailey was seen as one of the favorites to claim the closer role for the team. Yesterday, one of the Philly writers speculated that he could be sent to Triple-A to open the season. This is the sort of open-ended, your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine environment of the 2016 Phillies that pertains to almost all positions, especially the bullpen. Should Bailey make the club and end up as the closer, it’d certainly be a feel good story; however, we have to think that there are probably better options at the back-end of the pen, right?

Perhaps not. David Hernandez hasn’t had meaningful success since his 2012 campaign with the Diamondbacks, Jeanmar Gomez doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, and almost everyone else is a completely unproven entity. Dalier Hinojosa might have the best arm out of the bunch, but he only has about 25 major-league innings under his belt. Edward Mujica may or may not make the team. At this point, the only thing we can say with confidence about the makeup of the Phillies bullpen is that we don’t have a lot of confidence in it.