2016 World Series Game 5 Live Blog
October 30, 2016
| 7:57 |
: This has begun! This largely one-sided conversation has begun!
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| 7:58 |
: And Eric Longenhagen, who’s far more likable, will arrive soon.
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| 7:58 |
: I’m totally here.
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| 7:59 |
: And ready to appear likable.
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| 7:59 |
: Over/under 12.5 outs for Bauer tonight?
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| 8:00 |
: I’d guess over. Francona will likely be a bu more patient tonight, is my idle speculation.
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| 8:00 |
: Prediction. Chapman comes into the game in sixth to face Napoli and Lindor. End of rally. Strop closes game to give Cubs 4 to 2 win. And Cowboy Joe wins stare-down with Heyward.
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| 8:00 |
: August Fagerbuns wrote about the Cubs’ pen earlier today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-difference-between-cleveland-and-chicagos-bullpen/.
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| 8:01 |
: He cites Maddon in that post, essentially making comments to the effect that there’s little change of Chapman entering early.
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| 8:01 |
: What are the odds that Jason Heyward willl be able to re-engineer his swing over the winter to at least be an average hitter again?
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| 8:01 |
: Which, of course, doesn’t mean Chapman WON’T enter earlu.
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| 8:01 |
: *Early.
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| 8:02 |
: I don’t know, Tom. Eric added that message. You here, Longenbuns?
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| 8:02 |
: what has surprised you guys the most this series?
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| 8:02 |
: I think they’re slim. Long levers + stiff wrists = long swing and I can’t think of a way that deals with Heywards issues that work around those two problems without totally castrating the power.
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| 8:03 |
: To CanIShowYouMySpitball: Josh Tomlin — and, in the postseason, Cleveland’s rotation, generally. They’ve been fantastic. Surprisingly fantastic.
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| 8:04 |
: Without regards to the specific teams at hand, which do you feel is more entertaining: A historic championship drought ending, or continuing?
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| 8:04 |
: I think that, after the Red Sox *ended* their drought, it renders the continuation of the Cubs drought more interesting.
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| 8:05 |
: I’d like to see it end like all other things.
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| 8:05 |
: Eric, have you seen Tyler Lawrence play (Murray St)? What do you think about him?
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| 8:06 |
: I have not.
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| 8:06 |
:
Over/under on Trevor Bauer’s outs tonight.
>12.5 (45.4% | 65 votes)
<12.5 (54.5% | 78 votes)
Total Votes: 143
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| 8:06 |
: Did home field advantage matter in this series?
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| 8:07 |
: It probably *existed* to some degree, yes. But it’s so slight in baseball relative to other sports. Just about 54%.
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| 8:07 |
: first use of castration in this chat?
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| 8:08 |
: I don’t know *when*. As for who, though: that will be Eric Longenhagen.
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| 8:08 |
: I’ve already used it.
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| 8:09 |
: So, I *do* know when: the past.
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| 8:10 |
: Eric, I’m confused. Why is that Heyward won’t be able to fix his swing? Just a year ago he was a well above average hitter. Why wouldn’t he be able to get back to that ability?
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| 8:12 |
: Heyward has made several adjustments during his career and each time opposing pitchers have responded. It’s promising that he’s done it in the past, but his hole right now is pretty clear and has been for a while and no adjustment has been made.
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| 8:12 |
: For reasons that needn’t be discussed, I’m watching the FOX 43 (Harrisburg, York, Lancaster, Lebanon) broadcast of this game even though I live in Maine. I am about to learn more about Pennsylvania’s capital region than I expected!
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| 8:13 |
: How about same survey for Lester >12.5 outs?
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| 8:13 |
: Fair enough.
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| 8:13 |
: I am watching the FOX Deportes broadcast online.
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| 8:13 |
:
Over/under on Jon Lester’s outs tonight.
>12.5 (94.8% | 111 votes)
<12.5 (5.1% | 6 votes)
Total Votes: 117
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| 8:13 |
: How’s your Spanish, Longenhagen?
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| 8:13 |
: Improving.
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| 8:13 |
: I hope you like Senate ads, Carson!
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| 8:14 |
: Yes. There appears to be an entirely civil, not-at-all-antagonistic senate race occurring in PA.
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| 8:14 |
: Commercials in a swing state sound like a great time.
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| 8:14 |
: We may need to discuss the people running for office here in AZ because the names are noteworthy.
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| 8:14 |
: Wait up. A recent photo of august showed no more bun
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| 8:15 |
: I don’t think I’m telling any tales out of school when I saw that August recently had a procedure on his shoulder. Or arm. Or something up there. Anyway, he wasn’t able to perform the necessary upkeep on the bun post-procedure. Hence, its absence now.
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| 8:16 |
: Davis is the wrong guy to lead off for the Indians, right?
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| 8:16 |
: Yes. Not ideal.
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| 8:16 |
: That said, I’d like to note that Davis has had much more of a career than it ever seemed he would. I admire him.
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| 8:17 |
: August mentioned his bum removal in a chat. It was sad.
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| 8:17 |
: You can take the bun out of the man, but can you take the man… out of… the bun?
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| 8:17 |
: I wait with anticipation for the attack ads both for and against Carson when he inevitably runs for thr Maine Legislature.
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| 8:18 |
: I don’t see many ground for a pro-Cistulli commercial at the moment.
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| 8:18 |
: Okay, wait… Baseball!
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| 8:18 |
: Bum removal?
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| 8:18 |
: Bum removal heh.
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| 8:18 |
: RIP August’s bum lol
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| 8:19 |
: Can they get called for interference in the pen?
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| 8:19 |
: This is a question of which I’ve never even bothered to conceive until that foul ball by Davis.
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| 8:19 |
: No one seemed too worried about it. But, yeah, weird.
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| 8:19 |
: Im just hear to discuss wildflower garden planning and upkeep. Is this still the correct chat?
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| 8:20 |
: Eff the damn yes it is.
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| 8:20 |
: To recap: the general sentiment is that Bauer will likely last for fewer than 12.5 out tonight.
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| 8:21 |
: There’s much less question about Lester, per the Crowd.
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| 8:22 |
: Lester: two strikeouts. So, decent outcome so far.
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| 8:22 |
: Already gotten swings and misses with the cutter and changeup, he has.
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| 8:23 |
: If anyone’s interested, here are the results on Lester’s pitches this year: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=452657&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&gFilt=regular&time=month&minmax=ci&var=po&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1.
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| 8:23 |
: Aaand now the curveball.
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| 8:23 |
: Eric clearly watched the back to the future/ star wars a thin today
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| 8:23 |
: And now three strikeouts. Which is the maximum possible number of strikeouts against three batters.
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| 8:24 |
: Nope, football, Padres film study
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| 8:24 |
: “Statement made.” What the frick does that mean?
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| 8:25 |
: It’s color commentary regarding witnesses to a crime.
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| 8:25 |
: Three K’s. Dayum.
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| 8:25 |
: And now curve ball too
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| 8:26 |
: Is there anything more tilting than my phone autocorrecting “Cistulli” to “Castillo”? No.
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| 8:26 |
: White-bordered lands
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| 8:26 |
: Willson’s in the high 90s on his round the horn throws to 3rd
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| 8:27 |
: Contreras is such a cool player. Can’t believe how engaged and intelligent he seems at his age. Hard not to compare him in that way to Baez.
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| 8:27 |
: 4ks to start the game
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| 8:27 |
: This reveals that my illicit feed is behind.
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| 8:27 |
: what does “intelligent” mean
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| 8:29 |
: Like, baseball intelligent. He seems open to any possibility. Just completely aware on the field, looking to exploit any weakness in opponent.
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| 8:29 |
: Should we count to 15 before revealing the game has begun with 5 straight Ks, so as to not spoil the action for you, Carson?
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| 8:29 |
: Banned!
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| 8:29 |
: 5ks to start the game
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| 8:29 |
: Banned!
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| 8:29 |
: …
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| 8:29 |
: What are the best restaurants in Harrisburg?
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| 8:29 |
: Hey: 5 Ks to start the game, looks like.
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| 8:30 |
: Congressman, like you don’t know.
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| 8:30 |
: I don’t know, Pat. Looks like you’re invited to roughly half of them.
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| 8:30 |
: Senator, whatever.
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| 8:30 |
: 7 Ks to start the game
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| 8:30 |
: Eric, have you seen Corbin Martin play (Texas AM)?
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| 8:30 |
: I have not.
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| 8:30 |
: 5ks
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| 8:30 |
: 5ks, this could be a fun game!
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| 8:30 |
: Five in a row
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| 8:31 |
: Wow I dont remember the last time I saw someone reach second on a dropped third strike, Carson.
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| 8:31 |
: I’m the furthest thing from a scout (speech language pathologist, to be exact), but Santana sure did look uneasy catching that can of corn.
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| 8:31 |
: Yes, that was an adventure.
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| 8:32 |
: Cleveland’s behind. Chicago’s only struck out twice.
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| 8:32 |
: I’m a magizoologist, too; I study Kyle Schwarber.
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| 8:33 |
: is intelligence a good thing? in baseball you have to make decisions really really quickly.
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| 8:34 |
: I’m working under the assumption — which I believe is supported by something like science — that there are multiples sorts of intelligence.
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| 8:34 |
: The 2004 Red Sox proved that intelligence is not that important.
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| 8:34 |
: Say hello to Czech Republic, guys! 1:30 AM here, go Cubs!
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| 8:35 |
: Hello!
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| 8:35 |
: Question for both of you, favorite World Series memory?
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| 8:35 |
: One time, my uncle (who lived in Alabama) got tickets to see Atlanta — versus Toronto, I guess — in Atlanta. I flew down that day.
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| 8:36 |
: That’s not the memory, though. The memory is…
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| 8:36 |
: Wait a sec. Rizzo did something crazy.
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| 8:36 |
: Well shit
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| 8:36 |
: That play is my new favorite
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| 8:36 |
: That was a neato catch
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| 8:36 |
: Score that PU 2-3
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| 8:37 |
: Little bag of flour goes deep!
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| 8:37 |
: Flour
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| 8:37 |
: That’s how bags of flour hit
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| 8:37 |
: Jose Ramirez home run.
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| 8:38 |
: Little bag of flour is a fun nickname
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| 8:38 |
: I didn’t even realize that I coined it, on account of I was drunk!
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| 8:38 |
:
Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez — one of my favorite players, I should note — has a body like a little bag of flour.
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| 8:39 |
: Hell of a play by Bryant.
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| 8:39 |
: No throwing error today
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| 8:39 |
: A dive. A throw. A dig. A man. A map. A plan….
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| 8:39 |
: And Rizzo
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| 8:39 |
: He’s been much better than I thought he’d be at 3B, pre-draft. Thought he’d be a corner OF by now.
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| 8:39 |
: rizzo seems to get questioned a lot if his foot is on the bag
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| 8:40 |
: Defense at 3B has become one of the tougher spots to project.
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| 8:40 |
: Eric, have you seen Brady Singer pitch?
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| 8:40 |
: I have not.
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| 8:41 |
: Why is 3B harder to project?
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| 8:41 |
: Rizzos foot comment is confirmation bias at work
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| 8:41 |
: Nort sure yet but I suspect it has more to do with the bodies that play there than the requirements of the position itself.
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| 8:42 |
: Well, it’s better than confirmation bias just sitting around collecting welfare.
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| 8:42 |
: Eric, how did Greg Bird look in the AFL?
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| 8:42 |
: Timing hasn’t been great, finally saw him destroy one Thursday night though.
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| 8:42 |
: Eric, who have you seen play?
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| 8:43 |
: Lots of guys, why are you persistently creepy?
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| 8:43 |
: I live in AZ dude and you’re asking me if I’ve seen SEC prospects. i don’t have a private jet.
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| 8:43 |
: Could we be being treated to the “not messing around” version of Trevor Bauer tonight?
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| 8:45 |
: That’s an interesting question. I wonder if there’s a way to objectively identify “messing around” versus not.
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| 8:45 |
: I mean, to see if he’s tinkering or not.
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| 8:45 |
: Eric do you have a public jet?
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| 8:45 |
: I have a 7″ pressing of the Wings single, “Jet”
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| 8:46 |
: Is Max Schrock looking like a great or the greatest player in AFL?
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| 8:46 |
: Eric? You seen Schrock?
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| 8:46 |
: I have, He’s a prospect but not the demigod of Carson’s dreams.
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| 8:47 |
: Eric, you can borrow the company jet if you need it, just have to ask.
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| 8:47 |
: Re Eric’s Schrock opinion: *Leans into keyboard* “Wrong.”
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| 8:48 |
: Eric, I’ll join the band of wagons and ask if you’ve seen any Royals guys in the AFL? Namely on such pitcher named Josh Staumont
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| 8:48 |
: My illicit feed just froze with audio in loop for a minute, like a video game.
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| 8:48 |
: I have and his curveball is dominant but the delivery and command are relieverish.
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| 8:48 |
: Saw him up to 101 in college, more 94-97, t98 this fall.
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| 8:48 |
: If Maddon comes out onto the field of play, he has to put a baseball cap on his head, right?
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| 8:49 |
: Any cap is fine. Newsie cap. Pilgrim bucklehat. Whatever.
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| 8:49 |
: I think Bauer is going to go more than 12.5 outs.
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| 8:50 |
: My hat, it has three corners
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| 8:51 |
: Which will happen first – the end of baseball or a manager in plainclothes?
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| 8:51 |
: End of baseball. Too much money in branding to put a guy in a suit.
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| 8:51 |
: Unless they can put an Under Armour logo on a lapel…
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| 8:51 |
: Oh, Javier
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| 8:52 |
: Francona story: http://www.espn.com/mlb/news/story?id=2997982
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| 8:53 |
: Connie Mack was the last manager allowed to wear street clothes. 1950s I think.
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| 8:54 |
: I believe that implicitly.
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| 8:54 |
: this game is moving!
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| 8:55 |
: Surprisingly! Although, we haven’t gotten to the Endless Bullpen portion of the program yet.
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| 8:55 |
: Bauer appears to have orders not to swing.
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| 8:56 |
: Did anyone honestly think Trevor would resist swinging
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| 8:56 |
: Or, apparently not.
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| 8:56 |
: guess not
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| 8:56 |
: Carson, you are so behind
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| 8:56 |
: By my count, Carson is approximately 4-5 pitches behind real time.
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| 8:57 |
: Well, that may be true.
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| 8:57 |
: To verify, I have no idea what this means yet:
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| 8:57 |
: I love Heyward
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| 8:57 |
: JASON HEYWARD
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| 8:57 |
: spider heyward
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| 8:57 |
: Heyward, wth, how do you overrun a ball there with the wind blowing in
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| 8:57 |
: Jay Hey!
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| 8:57 |
: Still no idea!
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| 8:57 |
: I just saw it.
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| 8:57 |
: Has Gavin Cecchini done anything of note in the AFL?
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| 8:57 |
: Wait for it
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| 8:58 |
: Okay. Got it.
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| 8:58 |
: Struggled to throw and generally had some frustrating times.
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| 8:58 |
: Heyward > Lonnie Chisenhall
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| 8:58 |
:
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| 8:58 |
: connie Mack in dugout
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| 8:58 |
: Plainclothes!
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| 8:59 |
: i need a rajai davis on base against jon lester moment in my life
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| 8:59 |
: That looks so much better. Coaches in baseball pants look absurd.
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| 9:00 |
: Happy mischief night everyone.
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| 9:00 |
: So,apparently this is just a thing people in the Northeast know about.
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| 9:01 |
: People in Arizona do not understand mischief night and, the first year Jill and I were out here, people thought we were crazy for cautiously preparing for it.
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| 9:01 |
: Remember when the NFL flirted with this about ten years ago, coaches could wear a suit or continue dressing like my uncle who runs book
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| 9:01 |
: Yes, Mike Nolan and Jack Del Rio wore suits with reebok logos in the lining.
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| 9:02 |
: There’s something extra humiliating, I think, about receiving a Mischief Night prank before you turn 30.
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| 9:02 |
: I feel like a suit is not really “plainclothes”…
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| 9:02 |
: In the 19th century, men WENT TO BED in a fancy vest and wingtips.
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| 9:03 |
: They should really let managers be eligible to play
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| 9:03 |
: and not count against the roster limit
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| 9:03 |
: I am from the Northeast. What is mischief night??
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| 9:03 |
: what the hell is mischief night
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| 9:03 |
: I have no idea what mischief night is
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| 9:03 |
: Mischief night poll time!
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| 9:04 |
: It’s the night before Halloween when children go egging, tic-tacking and generally run amok.
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| 9:04 |
: I was wrong it’s JUST Eastern PA and NJ that know what it is: http://gawker.com/these-eight-maps-prove-that-everyone-in-the-u-s-speaks-511622757
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| 9:04 |
:
Do you know what the hell Mischief Night is?
Yes (30.2% | 66 votes)
No (45.4% | 99 votes)
Um, excuse me, Dr. Jagoff. This is a BASEBALL chat. (24.3% | 53 votes)
Total Votes: 218
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| 9:05 |
: In my state it was called Devil’a Night. Mischief Night sounds corny and euphemistic.
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| 9:06 |
:
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| 9:06 |
: When you think about it it’s crazy that managers have to wear a uniform. Is this true for any other sport?
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| 9:06 |
: Darts.
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| 9:07 |
: Cubs hitters have been unable to punish anything inside.
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| 9:08 |
: We in Czech Republic have no idea what you’re talking about
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| 9:08 |
: I wish they would do it in football. It would be great to see Andy Reid in helmet and pads.
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| 9:09 |
:
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| 9:09 |
: Eric, how often to guys’ tools change once they hit the bigs?
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| 9:09 |
: Quite a bit. Run usually goes backwards, for instance.
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| 9:10 |
: Mischief night is the reason I pooped on all of your porches.
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| 9:10 |
: Yeah right, dad.
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| 9:11 |
: A large percentage of chatters have little to no knowledge of Eastern PA and NJ? Point Fangraphs readership.
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| 9:11 |
: 43 pitches through three innings, Bauer has exceeded Cleveland’s wildest dreams
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| 9:11 |
: Gotta bunt one straight at Lester to see how it goes right?
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| 9:12 |
: I would
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| 9:12 |
: Yeah, Bauer currently has a negative FIP for the game. Pretty excellent.
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| 9:13 |
: By the way, Bauer’s lowest single-game FIP for a start this year was 0.93 — on June 6 at Seattle.
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| 9:14 |
: Ross and Rizzo are like magnets tonight
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| 9:14 |
: How do Rizzo and Ross not talk right there
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| 9:15 |
: Rizzo and Ross collide on a catch. But get the out, nonetheless. Top 4 over.
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| 9:15 |
: How does one get a negative FIP?
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| 9:16 |
: The algorithm for FIP is just the product of regression, so it’s not really designed to accommodate the most extreme outcomes.
|
| 9:16 |
: Who was the highest ranked prospect pitcher on the 2 rosters? Bauer? (Carrasco?)
|
| 9:16 |
: Lester was highly rated as a prospect. Bauer probably the highest draft ranking.
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| 9:17 |
: Carrasco was Philly’s #1 before the Lee deal, though.
|
| 9:17 |
: Kris Bryant ain’t bad
|
| 9:17 |
: Bryant!
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| 9:17 |
: Well now he has a positive ERA.
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| 9:17 |
: Frigging A.
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| 9:18 |
: Bryant on a line to left-center. Impressive. Now 1-1.
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| 9:19 |
: And Rizzo for 2 right after.
|
| 9:19 |
: Rizzo
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| 9:19 |
: Lindor hidden ball trick!!!
|
| 9:19 |
: LOVED that attempted hidden ball trick by Lindor
|
| 9:19 |
: What percent of the time do the 2016 cubs win a 7 game series against the 2016 Indians?
|
| 9:20 |
: I think roughly two-thirds of them. I mean, starting at 0-0.
|
| 9:20 |
: And by “I think,” I mean “I think that’s what I remember the sophisticated model projecting.”
|
| 9:20 |
: what are they chanting at Bauer?
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| 9:21 |
: Merely reminding him of his name.
|
| 9:21 |
: Announcers keep talking about advancing the runner with productive outs. That’s pretty well-established to be bunk, right?
|
| 9:22 |
: Well, two things. One, just getting extra-base hits all the time is better. But two, it’s quite possible that so-called “productive outs” might be part of the mystery effect that allows teams to outperform their BaseRuns records.
|
| 9:22 |
: would Drone Strike be an inappropriate nickname for bauer
|
| 9:22 |
: Not precise enough for that.
|
| 9:22 |
: Is there a worse trend in baseball than the “Cueto” chant going mainstream
|
| 9:23 |
: It would actually be pretty great if all the Cubs fans were cheering “Cueto” instead.
|
| 9:23 |
: This inning is really droning on now
|
| 9:24 |
: Clevinger up in bullpen.
|
| 9:24 |
: Which everyone here probably knew five minutes ago.
|
| 9:24 |
: So the appearance of Andrew Miller is NOT imminent, appears.
|
| 9:25 |
: Addison Russell with a 60-foot single to third base.
|
| 9:25 |
: Rizzo scores.
|
| 9:25 |
: Cubs up.
|
| 9:25 |
: I had a very jailbroken 4.00 on Russell there.
|
| 9:26 |
: Productive outs > unproductive outs. Also, productive outs actually increase the “Clutch” stat, so they may help teams beat their base runs expectations.
|
| 9:27 |
: How many chatters would need to submit something ridiculous for you guys to believe it happens?
|
| 9:27 |
: It’s happened a lot already but this isn’t our first Slow-deo
|
| 9:27 |
: Why is Carson doing play by play?
|
| 9:27 |
: I have no idea what I’m doing?
|
| 9:28 |
: Did that swing look checked to you guys?
|
| 9:28 |
: I think he went
|
| 9:28 |
: He went
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| 9:29 |
: It did but on the slow-mo I thought it could go either way.
|
| 9:29 |
: A good outcome here would just be Baez swinging at only strikes.
|
| 9:29 |
: Or bunting perfectly down third-base line.
|
| 9:30 |
: Surprised Bauer’s still in the game?
|
| 9:30 |
: Miguel Montero is psyched about that bunt.
|
| 9:30 |
: Leverage is highest of game so far, I’d image. Bases loaded, only one out.
|
| 9:30 |
: Ross was just referred to as El Abuelito on my broadcast.
|
| 9:30 |
: Although, you can adjust leverage for batter, hypothetically. Ross makes it less dangersous.
|
| 9:31 |
: *dangerous.
|
| 9:31 |
: No one spoil Carson on this, but I heard that the Dodgers lost.
|
| 9:31 |
: Periodic reminder: In his rookie season (229 PAs) Javier Baez struck out at a higher rate than Jim Abbot did as a hitter over his career.
|
| 9:31 |
: “The Little Grandpa”?
|
| 9:33 |
: No one spoil Carson on this, but I heard that the Dodgers moved out of Brooklyn.
|
| 9:33 |
: If Ross gets on, do you send up Schwarber?
|
| 9:34 |
: I do. But I’m not qualified for that job, AT ALL.
|
| 9:34 |
: Actually, no. I don’t. Lester’s fine for the moment.
|
| 9:34 |
: el abuelito delivers
|
| 9:34 |
: “Lester can swing it” – Joe Buck. No, no he cannot. That is simply false.
|
| 9:35 |
: Actually, he *can* swing it. He just can’t *hit* it.
|
| 9:35 |
: Well, he is literally capable of swinging a baseball bat
|
| 9:36 |
: Pedants!
|
| 9:36 |
: Yeah: pedants!
|
| 9:36 |
: Joe Buck calling this AB like he has money on a Lester double
|
| 9:37 |
: Lester actually DOES look like he knows what he’s doing.
|
| 9:37 |
: The results suggest otherwise, of course.
|
| 9:37 |
: Lester has a good looking swing… the result however
|
| 9:37 |
: Untimely comment, Carson
|
| 9:39 |
: I think we’ve established that none of my comments will be timely this evening.
|
| 9:39 |
: The sequencing that inning was turrible. Cubs should have had Kris Bryant strike out looking and Lester hit the homer.
|
| 9:39 |
: Toomey commercial!
|
| 9:39 |
: Nice
|
| 9:39 |
: I am learning a lot about Pennsylvania.
|
| 9:39 |
: Carson’s entire existence is untimely
|
| 9:39 |
: Good?
|
| 9:40 |
: Hm. I’ll reflect on that after it’s over.
|
| 9:40 |
: Zobrist sounds like he belongs to the (made up) cult of Zobrism
|
| 9:40 |
:
|
| 9:42 |
: That slide was mesmerizing
|
| 9:42 |
: Santana slid for like 10 ft on that play
|
| 9:42 |
: that was a majestic clide
|
| 9:42 |
: Majestic Clide
|
| 9:43 |
: Carlos Santana 25th on active walk leaderboard
|
| 9:43 |
: He’s 30. Nobody ahead of him is under 32
|
| 9:44 |
: Next player on the list younger than Santana is Justin Upton at 28.
|
| 9:44 |
: The crowd behind the plate looks like a chapter meeting for the Alan Alda fan club.
|
| 9:45 |
: 4.25 on Ramirez. That’s a hair below average.
|
| 9:45 |
: Play-by-play: a great play by Addison Russell on a weakly hit grounder to short.
|
| 9:45 |
: Or above, sorry, he was hitting right-handed
|
| 9:45 |
: If Cleve tightens the score here, Miller 5th and 6th? Or still too early?
|
| 9:45 |
: I’d guess Cleveland would have to be tied/winning for Miller to pitch that early.
|
| 9:46 |
: Clevinger’s appearance in the bullpen seems to suggest that.
|
| 9:46 |
: Above average in quality (meaning lower time) or raw numbers (meaning higher)?
|
| 9:46 |
: faster than average (4.3 for RHH)
|
| 9:46 |
: That would be a tiny chapter, as those things go.
|
| 9:46 |
: A lot of their membership has died, unfortunately.
|
| 9:47 |
: Allen is coming in first today right?
|
| 9:47 |
: There are rumblings of that. Rumblings, I saw!
|
| 9:47 |
: *say.
|
| 9:48 |
: Can we have slo-mo for every day things? Have some awesome poops I’d love to have the video to analyze
|
| 9:49 |
: There’s a Chappelle’s Show sketch about exactly that.
|
| 9:49 |
: In which of Neruda’s publications does that appear? I can’t recall it.
|
| 9:49 |
: ^Evidence of the gap in the way Carson and I spend free time
|
| 9:50 |
: I’m behind, but: good AB so far buy Guyer.
|
| 9:50 |
: Does anyone have any predictions on tonight’s celebrity 7th inning stretch appearance? Bill Murray on night 1, Vince Vaughn night 2…
|
| 9:50 |
: Eddie Vedder?
|
| 9:50 |
: Well thats simply a ball
|
| 9:50 |
: that was a ball
|
| 9:50 |
: Uh, that’s badvumping.
|
| 9:50 |
: Yeah. Not great vumping.
|
| 9:51 |
: Works out for the Cubs, at leasy.
|
| 9:51 |
: *least.
|
| 9:51 |
: Which: it would be REALLY great if the Cubs won tonight, because I haven
|
| 9:51 |
: haven’t aggregated all the results from the free-agent crowdsourcing.
|
| 9:51 |
: It would be nice to have another day.
|
| 9:52 |
: Same and Padres list is going to take longer than just about all the others.
|
| 9:52 |
: I will recite a poem about some delicious plums I had this morning.
|
| 9:53 |
: #RoboVumps.
|
| 9:53 |
: Vumps these days.
|
| 9:53 |
: MGL absolutely losing his shit after Lester hit last inning. And not just because he’s old and that’s a thing that happens.
|
| 9:53 |
: He is an endless source of amusement. I’m either learning things or enjoying his useless fury.
|
| 9:54 |
: Eric, do you think you’ll have the prospects lists finished before March?
|
| 9:54 |
: If it kills me.
|
| 9:54 |
: Any hint on where Morejon might show up in Padres’ list? Top 5?
|
| 9:54 |
: Oh yes
|
| 9:57 |
: I can’t put a finger on it, but what does Bauer have to do to take that next step. His stuff is good, but he’s missing something?
|
| 9:57 |
: Command — which is, admittedly, pretty nebulous — seems to be the answer.
|
| 9:59 |
: Bauer has this… narrative surrounding him that moreso than others, once he gets hit, he has trouble getting it back together. Has anything quantifiable been done to see if this is true?
|
| 9:59 |
: Not to my knowledge. Community piece!
|
| 10:00 |
: Bryant to 3rd!
|
| 10:00 |
: wth was that throw
|
| 10:00 |
: Tailed on Perez pretty bad.
|
| 10:00 |
: I’ve had Clevenger around 1.6 from the stretch. Looks like Cubs are willing to run on him despite Perez’s arm strength.
|
| 10:01 |
: Eric, is there anything that causes a throw to tail like that? Like, anything systemic in a catcher?
|
| 10:01 |
: Reminder that Roberto Perez was the killjoy who threw out Terrance Gore: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/terrance-gore-is-human-after-all/
|
| 10:02 |
: If you hold the ball too deep in your palm it tails sometimes, at least for me
|
| 10:02 |
: Pronation I would think, just like throwing a two-seamer.
|
| 10:02 |
: Just release timing. At least that was the case on that throw. Sometimes catchers will stride open with the fron foot landing toward 3B and throws will tail but not Perez there.
|
| 10:03 |
: Yeah, the question of catcher release point seems like a whole different thing than for pitchers. Pitchers are basically in control of when they throw; catchers are reacting to different body positioning.
|
| 10:05 |
: can’t wait for coco to hit a 2 run homer with nobody on base
|
| 10:06 |
: ^
|
| 10:08 |
: We have gone 5 innings without a reference to “Lester has trouble throwing to first.”
|
| 10:08 |
: Hasn’t been necessary, has it? That’s one elegant solution to the problem.
|
| 10:09 |
: Actually, Cleveland has had zero runners at first base, is what “research” proves.
|
| 10:09 |
: Okay, third time thru the order for Lester here. Seequencing to Davis was FB/Cut/Cut
|
| 10:09 |
: probably b/c that’s the first runner who made it to first
|
| 10:09 |
: Steal steal steal
|
| 10:09 |
: Davis! Cue the circus!
|
| 10:10 |
: “it doesn’t even matter if he gets thrown out” interesting take john
|
| 10:10 |
: That lead is comical man
|
| 10:11 |
: That lead hahaha
|
| 10:11 |
: see, dodgers, that wasn’t too hard now, was it?
|
| 10:11 |
: To be fair, Davis is one of the fastest, best baserunners in league.
|
| 10:12 |
: according to Darren Willman on Twitter, it was an 18.6 foot lead for Davis.
|
| 10:12 |
: lmao according to Statcast he was 27 feet from 1st when Lester released the ball
|
| 10:14 |
: Cameraman doesn’t even know how to handle his lead off second
|
| 10:14 |
: A wide-angle lens would be of some benefit now.
|
| 10:14 |
: Of course, if Davis gets *too* far off, Lester can literally just run at him.
|
| 10:15 |
: I really thought Lester was saving a perfect pick off move he’s been secretly on for weeks for this game.
|
| 10:16 |
: Kevin Pillar would’ve caught that.
|
| 10:16 |
: Kevin Pillar would had that :^)
|
| 10:16 |
: Lindor is so effing good
|
| 10:17 |
: 80 tag
|
| 10:17 |
: 80-grade tagging
|
| 10:17 |
: Probably just good news for CHC that Fowler held Lindor to one base there.
|
| 10:17 |
: You people are jerks, but not I’m excited for what’s about to happen.
|
| 10:17 |
: The times you saw one set of footprints, that was David Ross carrying Jon Lester.
|
| 10:18 |
: holy hell
|
| 10:18 |
: The worlds greatest tagger strikes again
|
| 10:18 |
: Ross is fricking amazing.
|
| 10:18 |
: De facto pitchout there
|
| 10:18 |
: What was the pop, Eric?
|
| 10:19 |
: Oh, got it:
|
| 10:19 |
:
David Ross great throw!
Pop time: 1.92 seconds |
| 10:20 |
: I did not get it,
|
| 10:20 |
: For those asking about stealing off Lester, August Fagerbuns did the math on it: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jon-lesters-oddities-all-on-display/.
|
| 10:21 |
: The conclusion: Lester and Ross are really quick.
|
| 10:21 |
: And Ross is good at throwing behind guys at first.
|
| 10:21 |
: Do we have any benchmarks for that?
|
| 10:22 |
: For pop time, at least, I believe 2.0 sec is average. Longo would know better.
|
| 10:22 |
: Fagerbum*
|
| 10:22 |
: What baseball position would make the best pitchers? Transferable skills and all that. (Don’t say pitchers)
|
| 10:22 |
: Kenley Jansen was a catcher, so that seems like a pretty strong candidate.
|
| 10:23 |
: Matt Bush, meanwhile, was a shortstop. So that, too.
|
| 10:24 |
: Lots is SS and C do it, right?
|
| 10:24 |
: And Jacob DeGrom was a SS
|
| 10:25 |
: Pedro Baez was a 3B
Chris Hatcher was a C |
| 10:25 |
: montero?????????
|
| 10:25 |
: My answer would be athletes with arm strength, so often SS. I’d guess a lot of big league pitchers were SS at one point.
|
| 10:26 |
: Mychal Givens a SS at one point too
|
| 10:26 |
: Carlos Martinez was a SS. Dude’s like a cat on the mound fielding his position
|
| 10:27 |
: Obviously, if Aroldish Chapman were comfortable working earlier in the game, this would the ABSOLUTELY IDEAL time for that.
|
| 10:28 |
: I’ve missed this news story–Chapman has said he can’t come in earlier than the 9th, at the start of the inning?
|
| 10:28 |
: Maddon discusses it here:
|
| 10:29 |
: Chapman warming up now
|
| 10:29 |
: So there’s that, too.
|
| 10:30 |
: “Napoli will hold at second with a single.” A professional broadcaster.
|
| 10:30 |
: Napoli did a good job stretching that double into a single
|
| 10:32 |
: It remains a bit mysterious re: Chapman. If he’s fine to warm up right now, in the 7th, why couldn’t he have just started earlier?
|
| 10:33 |
: Am I the only person who thinks Maddon is crazy for not using Strop instead of Edwards?
|
| 10:33 |
: Or Rondon.
|
| 10:33 |
: Pinch runner for Napoli?
|
| 10:33 |
: Been thinking about this since the hit and still not sure what I’d do.
|
| 10:34 |
: wait, just noticed contreras is catching… why wouldn’t you pinch hit……contreras…..instead of montero?
|
| 10:34 |
: This is a strong postgame question for Maddon.
|
| 10:35 |
: Eric, what do you think of Contreras’ defense? He looks so fidgety to me. I find it unsettling.
|
| 10:35 |
: Chapman coming in.
|
| 10:35 |
: Chapman coming in
|
| 10:35 |
: Definitely a little manic but he’s like that all the time.
|
| 10:36 |
: Athleticism like that behind the plate is so rare, though.
|
| 10:37 |
: Would also like someone to ask Joe Maddon if he knows what mischief night is.
|
| 10:37 |
: Chapman o/u 45 pitches
|
| 10:37 |
:
How many pitches will Aroldis Chapman throw?
>45 (33.1% | 75 votes)
<45 (66.8% | 151 votes)
Total Votes: 226
|
| 10:39 |
: By the way, Trevor Bauer recorded 12 outs. So: 54.5% of respondents were correct. But also: that was a pretty good over/under figure.
|
| 10:39 |
: 8 out save?
|
| 10:39 |
: I’d guess not.
|
| 10:40 |
: Rondon’s still back there.
|
| 10:40 |
: As is Strop.
|
| 10:40 |
: You should be an oddsmaker, Carson
|
| 10:40 |
: No! It was a reader! Like I even care about that shit.
|
| 10:41 |
: Does Joe Maddon know what time it is in Czech Republic? Those pitching changes, man
|
| 10:41 |
: Guyer HBP, who’d have thunk it
|
| 10:41 |
: Brandon Guyer, professional hit by pitch-er
|
| 10:41 |
: Guyer!
|
| 10:42 |
: The #9 spot will lead off the bottom of the 7th. If Contreras bats in the 6th, that would be Chapman. By using Montero then double switching Chapman is instead due up 9th.
|
| 10:42 |
: Explanation for Contreras behind plate.
|
| 10:42 |
: Secret double-switch!
|
| 10:43 |
: Does Perez stand a long ways away from the plate?
|
| 10:43 |
: Perez stands a long ways away from the plate, or am I just be
|
| 10:44 |
: “Look what I found” – Willson Contreras
|
| 10:44 |
: Contreras potentially saving a run on that crazy pick if Perez gets a hit
|
| 10:44 |
: Haha, he picked 102. WTF?
|
| 10:45 |
: He also saved the umpire.
|
| 10:45 |
: Who picked Eddie Veddae earlier?
|
| 10:45 |
: Ahem.
|
| 10:45 |
: Carson, your celebrity 7th inning appearance guess was correct!
|
| 10:48 |
: Not really a “guess,” it was reported
|
| 10:48 |
: Cram it, Neruda!
|
| 10:49 |
: Brian Shaw’s 95 with cut is fun.
|
| 10:50 |
: There does seem to be an argument to him not throwing any other type of pitch.
|
| 10:51 |
: Got 4.2 down the line from Contreras
|
| 10:51 |
: Shaw threw the cutter 81% of the time this year: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=543766&p_hand=-1&ppos=-1&cn=200&gFilt=regular&time=month&minmax=ci&var=traj&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017&balls=-1&strikes=-1&b_hand=-1.
|
| 10:52 |
: Why allen before Miller today?
|
| 10:52 |
: To control usage, maybe? Quite a few pitches from Miller over past couple days/weeks.
|
| 10:53 |
: Besides Chapman FB any 80 grades in this game Eric?
|
| 10:53 |
: Did Mariano ever come into a WS game in the 7th after he became the closer?
|
| 10:53 |
: Probably Lindor’s defense
|
| 10:54 |
: Baez bat speed
|
| 10:54 |
: Looks like only 6 of Rivera’s 96 WS appearances were in 7th inning: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=riverma01&t=p&year=0&post=1.
|
| 10:54 |
: None after 1996.
|
| 10:54 |
: He became closer in 1997.
|
| 10:55 |
: Can Schwarber play CF?
|
| 10:55 |
: Based on what I saw from him in AFL he shouldn’t play anywhere
|
| 10:56 |
: Heyward could slider over to CF, if Fowler has to leave.
|
| 10:56 |
: Almora probably, too.
|
| 10:56 |
: Actually. Even Zobrist probably wouldn’t be a bad fit.
|
| 10:57 |
: Probably go Almora for D?
|
| 10:57 |
: Yeah. He and Heyward would have that area pretty well covered.
|
| 10:57 |
: Fowler got lucky on that steal
|
| 10:57 |
: Baez woulda had that tag on that steal ??
|
| 10:58 |
: i guess dexter’s toe is ok
|
| 10:58 |
: Interesting call on the SB after the seeming injury.
|
| 10:58 |
: I would like to see Schwarber in CF. It would allow the world to see that all human endeavor is folly.
|
| 10:58 |
: Schwarber’s facial hair is sufficient, no?
|
| 10:59 |
: Is it just me, or is Cody Allen a good pitcher?
|
| 10:59 |
: You crazy for this one, Stone.
|
| 11:00 |
: Good pitcher? These pitches aren’t even close to the plate.
|
| 11:02 |
: Schwarber coming up
|
| 11:02 |
: SCHWARBER ALERT SCHWARBER ALERT
|
| 11:03 |
: No. No Schwarber!
|
| 11:03 |
: SCHWARBER SITTING DOWN!
|
| 11:03 |
: Into the doctrine of which of the world’s major religions would swinging at a 3-0 pitch fit most comfortably? Please don’t answer this question.
|
| 11:04 |
: Wicca
|
| 11:05 |
: Unscientific poll results: almost precisely two-thirds of respondents believe Aroldis Chapman will throw fewer than 45 innings.
|
| 11:06 |
: What are you drinking tonight, Carson?
|
| 11:06 |
: Bota Box.
|
| 11:06 |
: 45 innings? We’d be here all night!
|
| 11:06 |
: I’d certainly hope that Chapman will throw fewer than 45 innings this game
|
| 11:06 |
: Is this game exciting enough for you, fangraphs?
|
| 11:07 |
: No IA draft, suit.
|
| 11:07 |
: So, yes: 45 pitches, is the idea.
|
| 11:07 |
: Well, there’s only, pirobably 20 innings left in the series max, it’ll be hard to get to 45.
|
| 11:08 |
: Which Bota?
|
| 11:08 |
: The one in the kitchen.
|
| 11:08 |
: Ohhhh, that’s not great by Chapman
|
| 11:08 |
: Gold glover Aroldis Chapman
|
| 11:09 |
: PFPs tomorrow, 9am
|
| 11:10 |
: I’ll assume that Chapman doesn’t have to do a lot of covering first in a game situation.
|
| 11:11 |
:
 photo/1 |
| 11:11 |
: Even so, this is the damn World Series. Cover the base!
|
| 11:12 |
: Well, it’s not a terrible counterargument. A bit moot at this point, however.
|
| 11:12 |
: that’s a zoinks face
|
| 11:12 |
: Wow Rajai stole that on the pitcher.
|
| 11:12 |
: Stole it right off Chapman
|
| 11:13 |
: Unbelievable jump
|
| 11:14 |
: Rajai Davis doesn’t care fore speed and aging curves
|
| 11:15 |
: Is Jason kipnis trying to get out because he’s secretly pulling for the cubs
|
| 11:15 |
: swung at balls three and four
|
| 11:17 |
: Four straight FBs away from Kipnis.
|
| 11:19 |
: How much do you think what we’ve seen from Contreras behind the place affected the decision to steal there?
|
| 11:19 |
: Ran on Chapman again
|
| 11:20 |
: Strike one in this PA was not an exercise in pitch-framing. Worked anyway, though.
|
| 11:21 |
: NOT A STRIKE
|
| 11:21 |
: That was low
|
| 11:21 |
: Looooowww
|
| 11:22 |
: Would love to see Chapman hit in the 9th. Or trying to, at least.
|
| 11:22 |
: Chapman’s at 31 pitches, looks like. Beginning the 9th wouldn’t be crazy at this point.
|
| 11:22 |
: You guys are nuts…perfect pitch
|
| 11:22 |
: Check pitch f/x, strike
|
| 11:22 |
:
|
| 11:23 |
: It would be fun if they stopped the game periodically and said, “This next one pitch will be an exercise in pitch-framing and nothing else.”
|
| 11:24 |
: So, probably multiple innings for Allen at this point.
|
| 11:26 |
: no one throwing in cubs pen
|
| 11:26 |
: i didn’t know Heyward could hit a ball that far.
|
| 11:26 |
: Holy shit I thought Heyward just broke through
|
| 11:27 |
: Miller not warming either
|
| 11:27 |
: Just saw the Heyward foul… which left the entire park.
|
| 11:28 |
: Noice
|
| 11:28 |
: heyward!
|
| 11:29 |
: Heyward had a lot of good swings that AB.
|
| 11:30 |
: A note about Heyward: his problem (typically) hasn’t been making hard contact, it’s been elevating it. This year, he seemed to address the latter concern, but mostly just effed with the former.
|
| 11:30 |
: So Chapman gets to hit….pumped. He had 107 mph exit velo on his last batted ball.
|
| 11:30 |
: Would baseball be better or worse if to retire a baserunner you could just throw the ball at them?
|
| 11:31 |
: Might be a tough sell at the youth level.
|
| 11:33 |
:
Jason Heyward hit three balls in that AB:
106.1 MPH 101.8 MPH 103.2 MPH |
| 11:33 |
: Pretty sure I’d be hitting Schwarber here
|
| 11:33 |
: And then… go to Rondon?
|
| 11:33 |
: Yeah
|
| 11:34 |
: Or Strop
|
| 11:35 |
: That was a better take from Chapman than Baez has had all night
|
| 11:35 |
: Aroldis Chapman with a better eye than Baez ??
|
| 11:35 |
: So is the legend of Baez over with now that he keeps striking out all the time?
|
| 11:36 |
: Well, he does a lot of damage on contact. So, for the moment, he’ll probably have very good and very bad stretches.
|
| 11:36 |
: dig stealing 3rd there, the chances of a wild pitch were far greater than the chances of a hit.
|
| 11:37 |
: What’s the difference between Heyward and Stanton that allows Stanton more power with roughly the same body type
|
| 11:37 |
: I see the point at which you’re driving, but I think Stanton is pretty singular, physically speaking.
|
| 11:38 |
: He looks like a panther with a human mask on it.
|
| 11:40 |
: Chapman pretty sure to go 45+
|
| 11:41 |
: Unless he’s particularly efficient, looks like. Just at 34 with two outs to go.
|
| 11:43 |
: Still hitting 100.
|
| 11:44 |
: Who made the o/u? Oddsmaker Cistulli?
|
| 11:44 |
: No. Once again, entirely stolen from reader.
|
| 11:44 |
: still 102 at 40 pitches!
|
| 11:45 |
: Tuesday
|
| 11:45 |
: Yes!!!!!
|
| 11:45 |
: Fuuerrrra, se ponche.
|
| 11:45 |
: Gentlemen, you have fulfilled your obligations
|
| 11:45 |
: I’m still in 7th inning. What happens?
|
| 11:46 |
: Good night, everyone. Thank you for coming. I’ll be chatting about prospects tomorrow at 2 ET.
|
| 11:46 |
: And, in theory, Eric’s second org list arrives tomorrow, as well.
|
| 11:46 |
: Roger Clemens just threw a broken bat at Mike Piazza.
|
| 11:46 |
: The Dodgers move to LA
|
| 11:46 |
: Happy Halloween, Carson.
|
| 11:46 |
: And then you will say you’re welcome
|
| 11:47 |
: Whatever, jerk.
|
| 11:47 |
: Alright.
|
| 11:47 |
: You’re all beautiful.
|
| 11:47 |
: On the inside, at least.
|
| 11:47 |
: I can’t help you with the rest of your body.
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.