Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/28/25

Dan Szymborski: And thus the chat began. Suspiciously, it began on time as well.

Philly Fan: How much of a hit did Phillies’ WS prospects take with Wheeler’s injury?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t do an article on the topic, but I did run the numbers and at the time, they dropped from 11.7 to 9.8 in ZiPS purely for the Wheeler injury

Ben: If/when expansion happens, which cities are you hoping get  team?  Which ones would you bet on getting a team?

Dan Szymborski: I hope Nashville gets one. That’s purely for selfish reasons – gives me yet another park five hours or less away!

Dan Szymborski: And I like excuses to visit Nashville. The state of hot chicken in SW Ohio, at least in the Dayton area, is truly sad.

Dan Szymborski: Around here, Popeye’s boneless wings with *signature* sauce is the closest to hot chicken I’ve found around here. Everything else is even moer wrong

Jay: How badly has Jackson Holliday’s 3 year ZiPS outlook been hurt by his struggles this year?

Dan Szymborski: Not horribly

Dan Szymborski: OH wait, there was more to the question

Dan Szymborski: I think Charlotte and Salt Lake City

Dan Szymborski: have good chances

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think Orlando has a good chance. They’d be better off buying the Rays or Marlins and moving them to Orlando, I doubt baseball wants to put a THIRD team in Florida

Dan Szymborski: Probably have to buy Marlins since the Rays were just sold

Sirras: What do you think the hardest organization to turn around would be if you were forcibly given leadership of a team in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Marlins

Guest: Any idea why Ryan Pepiot isn’t hitting his ceiling? Going by a few metrics he’s got 3 above average to plus pitches and a strong swinging strike rate, but for some reason he can’t get called strikes, and whenever he does get hit it’s a lot of hard contact

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually not sure what the real problem is with him. It certainly FEELS like his changeup SHOUDL be a more whiffy pitch than it is

Dan Szymborski: But I’ve never really dug deeply into Pepiot’s profile specifically

donkle: You know how baseball savant has the spread maps of a pitcher’s pitches? Do you think it’s better for a specific pitch’s spread to be tighter or more broad? Better control vs less predictability?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s situation dependent

Guest: Thanks for chatting! How do you (Dan) go about interpreting the ZiPS projections? What’s your process? You always seem to have good analysis beyond what the numbers say.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have a specific *process* I go through. I think of a story, and see if the evidence supports what I think the story is, and if not, what the story really is.

Dan Szymborski: I’m far less concerned with what numbers *are* than what numbers *mean* and generally, it flows from there.

Dan Szymborski: It may seem odd coming from me, but I rarely want to write a story about numbers, I just *use* numbers in what I *hope* are interesting ways

NPC: McLean: ace?

Dan Szymborski: Not the craziest thing I’ve heard at all!

Idle wonderings: Do teams that rely on home runs for offense underperform their run differential because of uneven run distribution? I’m thinking about how in a given game a team needs x runs to score. If scoring is uneven in distribution they will score x+6 runs one day, x-3 the next. It would be better just to score x+1 both days.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t really found that. One of the nice things about home runs is that even though they’re spotty, they’re also somewhat *consistent* in the medium term

Dan Szymborski: while BABIP is REALLY volatile

Phil: So Giolito sure seems likely to hit the 140 IP trigger for his mutual option. Would he take $19M? No, right? What kind of contract would you anticipate if not? I am hoping the Red Sox hang on to him–just don’t have a lot of faith that Houck, Crawford, and Sandoval are going to be rotation mainstays next year–but I suspect Breslow won’t want to give a lot of years to someone of his age and history of down years.

Dan Szymborski: I should note that I’m doing a piece sometime next week on the options/optouts

Guest: Could you pick a top 4 here: Carroll, Wood, Springer, Kurtz and Buxton. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Fantasy? Would probably keep order similar!

Captain ACAB: Who is the most unique player in MLB right now according to Szyps?  By that I mean which player has the least similar comps?

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, I don’t actually know that! I keep a ton of projection data, but I don’t keep the exact mahalanobis distances

Dan Szymborski: It’s likely one of the amazing players simply because there are fewer players to reasonably compare them too

Dan Szymborski: “Beavers’ Beleavers” or “The Beaver Dam”?

Dan Szymborski: oops

The Snuggler: “Beavers’ Beleavers” or “The Beaver Dam”?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure the context of the question, but since it seemed some kid drowned every year at Beaver Dam in Timonium, the former?

Dan Szymborski: Actually surprised more people don’t get killed there. Don’t know if it still does, but it had this massive rope swing that was really unsafe

Dan Szymborski: and poor supervision

Dan Szymborski: our friend Bob was always broke, so we used to smuggle him in with us in the trunk of my Ford Tempo

Dan Szymborski: The car sucked, but it had a big trunk

Dan Szymborski: Since I had a car and one of the few on-site parking spaces (sufficient extra-curricular activities which required a lot), coming home from school, we usually had five in the car and a sixth in the trunk

James: Small sample, but is Correa already a top level defensive 3B?

Dan Szymborski: that’s raelly really premature!

md: Dan, how does ZIPS take into account /adjust for nagging type injuries? Broadcast mentioned Elly has a quad injury he’s playing through which is why he’s been bad lately, but I would imagine it would not change the future projection that much?

Dan Szymborski: That unfortunately is something I haven’t figured out how to do in a systematic fashion

JJ: What type of contract does ZiPS give Arraez after this year? It’s been rough to watch the sequence of statue take, foul ball, chase —> can of corn play out countless times

Dan Szymborski: A hilarious one that will get fans over 60 angry at me.

Dan Szymborski: 2/23 😀

victoria: Who is the best MLB player who knows your name?

Dan Szymborski: weirdly enough, it might be schilling

Insert Witty Name Here: Is Bob still broke? What happened to Bob? We must know.

victoria: If you could make a change to any single current MLB stadium, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: he turned out OK!

Dan Szymborski: BRING BACK THE MARLINS HOME RUN FEATURE. And this time, have a small polka band that plays creepy minor key waltzes while the feature moves

Insert Witty Name Here: You into the US Open like Ben is?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

Bob Myrick: Pete Crow-Armstrong has really no comps this year ( and few in baseball history): sub-.300 OBP, brilliant defense, 30/30. Just outrageous.

Dan Szymborski: Andre Dawson 1976-1978   Carlos González 2007-2010   Andre Dawson 1976-1979   Raul Mondesi 1992-1995   Andre Dawson 1976-1977   Chili Davis 1981-1982   Dan Gladden 1979-1982   Tom Romano 1980-1983   Garry Maddox 1971-1972   Garry Maddox 1971-1974   Dave Parker 1972-1973   Raul Mondesi 1992-1994   Starling Marte 2010-2012   Pedro Guerrero 1977-1979   Garry Maddox 1971-1973   Chili Davis 1981-1984   Wally Moon 1951-1953   Willie Davis 1961-1963   Duke Snider 1948-1949   Tommie Agee 1964-1966   Shawn Green 1995-1998   Bobby Murcer 1967-1969   Joe Carter 1981-1984   Duke Snider 1948-1950   Walt Bond 1959-1962   Duke Snider 1948-1951   Corey Hart 2004-2007   Willie Davis 1961-1964   Tommie Agee 1964-1967   Wally Judnich 1937-1940   Willie Davis 1962-1965   Peter Bourjos 2008-2011   Cliff Heathcote 1919-1920   Lee Maye 1956-1959   Pedro Guerrero 1977-1980   Joe Carter 1983-1986   Ellis Burks 1986-1989   Mel Hall 1982-1983   Carlos Beltrán 1998-2001   Bill White 1956-1959   Carlos González 2008-2011   Mickey Riv

Dan Szymborski: those zips doesn’t comp defense

Dan Szymborski: and those are fairly low scores

Bloomin’ Imo’s: when/if your modeling seems off, do you call it the zips blips?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t really have a name for them!

Wally W: I have a pretty reliable starting ten (10 guys rated 1-80) with one all purpose reserve and O’Neal Cruz. He’s coming off a short stint on the IL. My pitching has carried me this season. In order to keep Cruz, which one of the following SP’s would you drop? (Average rankings based on ERA & Number of Starts) Robbie Ray – 88 Brandon Woodruff – 78 Edward Cabrera – 62 Max Fried – 39 Hunter Brown – 33 Hurston Waldrep – 26 Merrill Kelly – 20 Cam Schlitter – 6 Trevor Rogers – 4 Shane Bieber -2, or cut Cruz?

Dan Szymborski: Geez, are you past your trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Probably would drop waldrep

Too much time on my hands: Pick your preferred cringe Sterling-esque home run call for Ben Rice: “Rice Pilaf!!” or “Arroz con Power!!”

Dan Szymborski: Arroz con Power would be amazing

Bob Myrick: If the Mets don’t resign Alonso, would you move Soto to first (if he’s open to it)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly worth a try

Bob: A little late but I always miss your chats. Would the cubs have been in a better position by trading tucker at the deadline for Cease and a good reliever? Offense is strong and could have slotted in caissie.

Dan Szymborski: nobody should miss (as in regret) my chats

Dan Szymborski: everybody should miss (as in scheduling) my chats as I am the worst, I am told.

Dan Szymborski: Would’ve been fun trade, but teams rarely do a big double star rental swap at the deadline

Your Name: What do you and ZiPS think of Bubba Chandler thus far?

Dan Szymborski: Very highly!

paul: What happened to Matt Chapman?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s basically at the level of reasonable expectations

Dan Szymborski: 2024 is a bad projection system

Dan Szymborski: (as is any single year)

Paul: I’ll put my name on my Q this time.  Do you think Roman Anthony will swoop in and win Rookie of the Year?

Guest: Do you think Roman Anthony will swoop in and steal Rookie of the Year?

Dan Szymborski: He’s had some big moments, but I’m not sure how he’d pass Kurtz

Rivervillain: Does your upcoming piece on options include a section on mutual options, cause those still seem nuts to me

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I was intending to do the ones wiht a player decision

GA Blood: At one point my dad, my brother, and I were all driving different Ford Tempos. We didn’t seek them out, they just kept finding us.

Dan Szymborski: Q: What’s the way to have one working Ford Tempo? A: Have three Ford Tempos

Dan Szymborski: That sounds like the automotive version of It Follows

Phil: Ellis Burks was an underrated player. I’d believe a PCA comp.

Guest: Hi Dan, do you think rookie hitters (Basallo, Cags, Crews, etc) are overrated in fantasy baseball? Seems like it takes even the great ones way longer to figure things out or tweak things than it does rookie pitchers, some of whom even come out of the gate strong. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I think they tend to simply because there’s ALWAYS someone in a league excited about X rookie

Dan Szymborski: nto any systemic reason

Dan Szymborski: for every guy having an awful start to MLB career, you find a guy with crazy unsustainable performance

Dan Szymborski: because rookies have same sample size issues that everyone else has

Guest: do you think Paul skenes is a pirate this time 2 years from now

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Henry Jerry Narron: Are Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe still starting players?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but they’re pushing the edges of that

Idle wonderings: So when you see big spreads between record and run differential is there some consistent factor you have found or just luck?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found any useful. Even bullpen quality/closer quality is almost nothing

Dayton Ohio: Have you ever run ZIPS for Robert Pollard if he had chosen to pursue pitching w the same passion he put into crafting a million indie rock songs?

Dan Szymborski: No because by the time I finished running the numbers, there would be like three new Guided by Voices albums

Guest: How much has/will Stanton’s immediate outlook change based on this year? Is he now a lock for 500

Dan Szymborski: I have ap iece in the hopper!

Dan Szymborski:

Your Name: The AL MVP race and candidates look to be great, while the NL side stinks. When’s the last time one league’

Dan Szymborski: usually whenever Ohtani is ALSO pitching

Guest: many fans in the jays subreddit have been discussing the potential of yesavage being called up this September in a reliever role. Do you see this happening?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t *THINK* they’ll do it but it’s worth considering

Billy Butterbean: An aging Phillies core losing Zack Wheeler late in the season is brutal. How much does that one injury hurt their chances of winning the WS?

Dan Szymborski: Beginning of chat!

Brady: Does Sal Perez get your hall vote if he wins another ws mvp?

Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t be based on THAT, but whether I do depends on how long he lasts. I’m a no right now if hti by bus

Porcho Villa: With 0.7 WAR in three starts Nolan McLean looks poised to overtake The Only Nolan for second best pitcher named Nolan ever as early as next season. I don’t actually have a question.

Dan Szymborski: Fasle: There’s only The Only Nolan. ITS IN HIS NAME.

Tacoby Bellsbury: Are we getting any ZiPS Time Warps this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I’m thinking of doing a Dickie Thon one during the poastseason

Sean: Do you have a favorite team from the past you would like to see match up in today’s game? For me, the ’85 Blue Jays would be seem to be really dangerous.

Dan Szymborski: not a favorite as there are a LOT of temas you’d want to see

Dan Szymborski: like how would you not want to see the Yankees from the 20s play a game today?

Dan Szymborski: out of curiosity even though it’s a bit unfair to them as they developed without modern facilities/coaching

Guest: Are you disappointed that this year’s playoff races has been pretty uninteresting?

Dan Szymborski: To an extent. West has been fun

Jimmy Wynn: Dickie Thon! Wow that brings back memories. What, no Enos Cabell?

Dan Szymborski: Thon was terrific!

Guest: Never realized being hit by a bus was disqualifying for Hall votes

Guest: if you got hit by a bus i’m decently confident that you wouldn’t be able to vote for the hof 5 years later

Dan Szymborski: depends how hard I’m hit?

I am the Apple: What do you think will be the biggest rule changes or tweaks between the last expansion draft and the next one?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’ve already had it: the dumbfuckery we call extra innings

Jim: Looks like the red sox might promote Tolle or Kyle Harrison to join the rotation. Who do you think will be better down the stretch?

Dan Szymborski: Harrison’s probably a lot safer

Jimmy Wynn: Thon’s ’82 and ’83 seasons were remarkable. Loved watching him play.

Guest: I think Wheeler got overlooked in the DeGrom Litmus Test article from last week concerning active 100-win pitchers.  Can you share his likelihood of getting to 150 wins? 200? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: OH, did I cut him off?

Dan Szymborski: In any case, the probability now looks to be preetty low sadly

Dan Szymborski: it seems to not be the worst kind of the thoracic outlet syndrome that ended Strasburg’s career

Dan Szymborski: but still…

I am the Apple: I meant, like, rule changes to the expansion draft itself. Sorry that I wasn’t clear

Dan Szymborski: I imagine the rules would be fairly similar

Dan Szymborski: Though given the changes in how MLB teams have acted in 30 years, I think you’d see a push for more eprotected minor leaguers

Southern Buddhist: Do I really have to give up all material possessions to achieve enlightenment, or can I keep a couple, like my dog & my truck?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I don’t think you should give up on stuff

Dan Szymborski: have you seen teh economy without stuff?

Phil: What team do most Orlandians root for currently, if any? Rays are closer, right? Or are they just Braves fans by default?

Dan Szymborski: I would imagine Braves or Yankees

Dan Szymborski: I doubt there are enough Boomer/Gen X longtime fans to make Orlando love the Twins or something

Opifijikl: Related to my question about ZiPS interpreting – are there any crazy ZiPS outputs (not bugs) that really made you scratch your head?

Dan Szymborski: weirdly, a couple things that worked out well. Like ZiPS going nuts on Bieber before his breakout season (15th best projected pitcher that year) and it’s yearly obsession with Dean Kremer

Appa Yip Yip: What has George Springer’s season done to his ZiPS projections for next year? Should Mike Trout feast on his still beating heart to absorb the fountain of youth inside of him?

Guest: Is Arraez’s struggles a skill issue or an approach issue?

Dan Szymborski: A combination

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch? (is it a lunch day?)

Dan Szymborski: It is not a lunch day

matt w: What are the cats up to?

Dan Szymborski: Hiding. I took out one of the cages about 10 AM because I’m bringing Mercutio to the vet at 2 PM to get his monthly Solentsia injection (he’s 17 and has arthritis). So I haven’t seen a cat since then and nobody’s come down to visit me in my office, not even Justinian who is usually here this time of day

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, Mercutio is the easiest to find and catch since while he’s a very nice cat, he’s also my dumbest cat, and has like two hiding place in a 2500 square foot house, both of which I can bend over and pick him up from.

Dan Szymborski: While if Cassiopeia/Cassie hides, it’ll be HOURS to find her

Transmission: Catching up, just now seeing the Bob in Trunk story. We used to do that too until we heard that if it comes with the risk of suffocating on the exhaust from the car. I hope Bob is wealthy and health.

Dan Szymborski: We didn’t do it for long drives!

Dan Szymborski: wouldn’t that get you an O2 sensor code or something?

donkle: Have you played Expedition 33?

Dan Szymborski: Not yet. Weirdly enough, I already know the score well

Dan Szymborski: It seems the type of game I’m going to have sit and play the shit out of, so I’m saving it for our holiday vacation in late december

Dan Szymborski: I like playing games and stuff, but I never let it interfere with work!

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I have to go take Mercutio to the vet.

Dan Szymborski: So thanks for coming everyone!