A Glove Story in Minnesota

The Minnesota Twins remain among the season’s early surprises, as they still reside in first place in an AL Central Division that includes a heavy division favorite and reigning AL champion in the Cleveland Indians.

There are a number of reasons the Twins are where they are atop the division. They have improved offensively from a 95 wRC+ club a year ago, to a 101 mark this season. Miguel Sano is the loudest reason for that — literally, as a loquacious presence in the clubhouse and also as owner of the most violent contact in the league. A more selective Sano is mashing, and the public seems to recognize this: the 24-year-old leads All-Star balloting at third base. In a world with a lame Mike Trout, Sano is in the MVP discussion, as well. Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman are raking, and while Joe Mauer remains a shell of what he was, he has posted a .359 on-base mark.

The Twins’ rotation has been helped by the emergence of Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana’s sparkling if unsustainable run prevention (2.44 ERA, 4.64 FIP).

The Twins have the second-worst FIP among AL starting staffs (5.01), trailing only the White Sox, but they have the eight-best ERA (4.30), suggesting run-prevention capabilities beyond what the pitchers alone are providing. Run-prevention capabilities provided by the defense.

And it’s defense that has emerged as the strength of the Twins, and which is at the center of a remarkable turnaround for the club.

The Twins’ defensive acumen has already been addressed here at FanGraphs and other media outlets this season, but the club continues to use defense to fuel their first-place standing. After recording some of the worst defensive numbers — as measured by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) — in recent seasons, the Twins are now recording some of the best.

The Twins rate well above average according to most defensive metrics, and they rank second in baseball with 27 DRS, trailing only the Reds by that measure and on pace to surpass the Cubs’ mark of 82 DRS set last season — and even perhaps challenge the Royals’ mark of 92 DRS from 2013. The DRS record was set by the 2005 Phillies (95 DRS). Two of the top seven clubs by DRS on record, the 2016 Cubs and 2008 Phillies, won World Series titles.

After posting a -49 DRS mark last year, the Twins have enjoyed a multi-win improvement through defense alone. Using the standard of 10 runs equating to one win of value, the Twins, at their current pace, could enjoy a 10-win jump through defensive play alone.

The Twins began to embrace defensive shifts in 2015, when they doubled their usage rate and have generally maintained it.

But the success is not so much about scheme, but rather talent.

Some of that change has been a product of finding better fits for returning players. The Twins moved Sano from right field, where he was a poor defender by UZR and DRS measurements, to third base, where he has rated above average by UZR measures and not as poor as he was in the outfield by DRS. Dave Cameron suspected Sano would be better at third base, a more reactive position than right field.

Jorge Polanco has taken over at shortstop, where he’s better than league average. Max Kepler has been a plus defender in right. Overall, 16 Twins have been worth at least +1 DRS and only two Twins, Sano (-4) and Chris Gimenez (-3), have accounted for more than one negative DRS. And no Twins defender, arguably no outfielder defender, has been as spectacular as Byron Buxton in center field.

Buxton is tied for third in baseball overall — and first among outfielders, along with Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. — with 10 DRS.

Buxton has made 11 of 12 four-star catch opportunities, according to Statcast data, and 9 of 9 three-star opportunities. If we’re nit-picking, he’s 0-for-8 on five-star catch opportunities, but that also means that somehow the above catch doesn’t rate as a five-star opportunity. (Statcast perhaps should consider full-speed collisions with the wall into catch-rating criteria.)

While Buxton has produced highlight after highlight in center, the Twins have also upgraded in another key area: receiving.

Jeff Sullivan has expertly noted that the value derived from framing was doomed from the start, but the Twins had been so poor at framing they were one of the remaining clubs — similar to the Rockies and Diamondbacks — that would stand to gain considerable benefit by adding an adept framer.

One of the first major decisions made under Derek Falvey, who’s in his first season running the club’s baseball operations, was to sign catcher Jason Castro to a three-year, $24-million deal on Nov. 22. After years of poor receiving, the Twins had an above-average pitch presenter.

Castro’s glove is producing hidden value, hidden wins for the club.

In some ways, the Twins’ defensive improvement reminds me of the Pirates’ dramatic defensive turnaround that allowed the club to end a 20-year streak of consecutive losing seasons in 2013. What’s so appealing about turning around defensive performance is that it can often come at a relatively low cost.

The comparisons aren’t perfect. The Twins don’t have an elite bullpen like the Pirates did, for example. The Twins need bullpen help; they currently feature AL worsts in ERA (5.10), FIP (5.14), xFIP (4.86) and WAR (-0.6). And it’s unclear if their starting rotation will continue to suppress runs at better than expected levels.

But the Twins have some lineup punch and their staff has been backed by the best defense in the game to date, which is perhaps enough to make the Twins interesting late into the summer.