A Look at Some Compelling Minor League Free Agents
Every winter, hundreds of nondescript minor leaguers become minor league free agents. Minor league free agency is what happens to a player who’s not on a 40-man roster after spending at least six years in the minor leagues. In other words, these players weren’t good enough to merit a callup after several years in the minors, and their organizations didn’t think they had enough potential to be worthy of a 40-man spot.
Some of these players latch on with new organizations; some of them don’t. But regardless, the overwhelming majority never have much big league success. A couple of years ago, Carson Cistulli found that only about 1% of minor league free agents produce at least 0.5 WAR the following season. Minor league free agents are the absolute bottom of the barrel when it comes to player transactions.
But there’s an occasional gem at the bottom of that barrel. Its not at all unheard of for a minor league free agent to make a major league impact. In no particular order, Gregor Blanco, Jesus Guzman, Donovan Solano, Yangervis Solarte, Jake Smolinski, Jose Quintana and Al Alburquerque are some notable examples from the past few years. And there are certainly others that I neglected to mention. Each left his original organization via minor league free agency, but achieved some level of big league success with his new team.
Using my KATOH projection system, I identified a few players from this year’s minor league free agent class who showed glimmers of promise last season. Based on their minor league numbers, there’s reason to believe they might be able to help at the big league level sometime soon. Below, you’ll find the top three hitters and top three pitchers according to KATOH. For each player, I’ve also provided a projected win total through his age-28 season (denoted as WAR thru 28) based both on 2015 numbers and then also his 2014 season (denoted as 2014 KATOH).
*****
Hitters
Wilfredo Tovar, 2.0 WAR thru 28
2014 KATOH: 1.5 WAR
Former Team: New York Mets
Current Status: Unsigned
Tovar was an interesting prospect in the Mets system a few years back, but the infielder stalled out in the high minors after a couple of injury-plagued seasons. He spent 2015 with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, where he hit .283/.327/.356 with 30 steals. Tovar isn’t sexy — if he were, he wouldn’t be a minor league free agent — but he makes contact, runs well and plays up-the-middle defense. And most importantly, at 24, he’s still young enough that he could conceivably get a good deal better.
*****
Rafael Ortega, 1.8 WAR thru 28
2014 KATOH: 0.4 WAR
Former Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Current Status: Unsigned
Originally a Rockies prospect, Ortega debuted in the majors as a 21-year-old in 2012, but hasn’t made it back since. He spent the past couple of years in the Cardinals system, but didn’t hit enough to get any big league consideration. Ortega has minimal power, but he gets on base by way of above-average strikeout and walk numbers. Still just 24, Ortega will latch on with his third organization this winter, and might make for a useful reserve outfielder in the near future.
*****
Tyler Pastornicky, 1.3 WAR thru 28
2014 KATOH: Insufficient Data
Former Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Current Status: Unsigned
Many moons ago, Pastornicky was an intriguing prospect in the Braves’ system. However, he turned into a pumpkin upon reaching the majors and was replaced by Andrelton Simmons. Pastornicky only managed a 68 wRC+ over 168 big league plate appearances with Atlanta before he was exiled to the minors for good in July 2014. He played in the Rangers and Phillies organizations last year and compiled a .282/.331/.367 batting line, which isn’t bad at all for an infielder. Maybe he can stick on a big league roster if given another chance. Maybe.
*****
Pitchers:
Cesar Vargas, 2.2 WAR thru 28
2014 KATOH: 0.3 WAR
Former Team: New York Yankees
Current Status: Signed with San Diego
Vargas has already latched on with the Padres, where he’ll likely open the year in Triple-A. Prior to his signing with San Diego, Vargas played in the Yankees organization from 2010 through 2015 with a decent amount of success. He pitched mostly at the Double-A level in 2015, and posted an impressive 2.55 FIP and 24% strikeout rate out of the bullpen. As a reliever, Vargas’s upside is obviously limited, but he’s already succeeded in the high minors at 23. He seems like a pretty good bet to wind up as a useful reliever.
*****
James Needy, 1.4 WAR thru 28
2014 KATOH: 0.7 WAR
Former Team: San Diego Padres
Current Status: Unsigned
Needy comes from the Padres organization, where he pitched to an unsightly 5.59 ERA over 130 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year. However, his 4.58 FIP suggests he got a bit unlucky. Now, a 4.58 FIP still isn’t good, but its not terrible when you consider that Needy’s a 24-year-old starting pitcher in the high minors. His height (6-foot-6) is also a point in his favor, as tall pitchers are generally better bets than shorter ones. Needy’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but there are reasons to think he could help a big league team as soon as next year.
*****
Carlos Pimentel, 1.1 WAR thru 28
2014 KATOH: 0.6 WAR
Former Team: Chicago Cubs
Current Status: Unsigned
Pimentel pitched to a 2.95 ERA in the Cubs’ Triple-A rotation last year. Going by that statement alone, Pimentel sounds extremely interesting. However, that sparkling ERA came from a 25-year-old with a 4.51 FIP, which makes him a fringy prospect at best. Even so, Pimentel’s non-terrible showing as a Triple-A starter makes him one of the more intriguing minor league free agents. Guys like this have a knack for turning into big league relievers.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
yeesh, a pretty motley list…
Tovar’s numbers need a *major* asterisk about them being put up in the pitcher’s hell of Las Vegas. 84 wRC+, which is still too generous. Good defender, although not speedy, so it was interesting to see him put up impressive steal numbers after years of low numbers AND poor efficiency. Would probably have been on the Mets playoff roster post-Ruben Tejada injury if he hadn’t been injured himself to end the season. He’ll be a worthy add for some team lacking shortstop depth, although it won’t be with the Mets. With Cecchini and Reynolds both likely to be in AAA to start the year, he’d be wise to look elsewhere even if the Mets had interest in bringing him back.
for these fringe players it is all about opportunity, and he was hurt for his last shot. That should not diminish the fact that he is a very good organizational depth guy for a team that needs a Janish type of SS to toil in AAA and fill in for injury (if only 100-200 ab.. anything more and you are in trouble).
As a 6′ 6″ pitcher, James Needy might benefit from a switch to the bull pen. Almost strictly a starter in the minors, back in 2012 he pitched out of the pen and had an era of 1.79. His tools may play-up in the pen a la Hochevar.
many moons ago Pastornicky was an interesting prospect in the Blue Jays system
Actually, many moons ago pastronicky was just a prospect in the jays system. I don’t think many were ever really intrigued.
Great topic area! Really enjoyed the article. Been interested in this area of cheap goodies after the Giants picked up Blanco (5.8 bWAR/9.5 fWAR).
He looked pretty interesting when I looked up his numbers after the Giants signed him, and he has done nothing to change my feelings. He had always been a good OBP, good defense guy, and appeared to just need the right opportunity. And with all the injuries (mostly to Pagan, but also Melky shooting himself in the foot/butt), he’s gotten a lot of chances to show off what he could do in the lineup. A really nice super-utility OF so far for Giants.
Giants got another pretty good minor league free agent signing with Santiago Casilla (7.8 bWAR, 1.4 fWAR)
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl-west/san-francisco-giants/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santiago_Casilla
And really, the Giants have had a number of contributors from minor league free agents, though not as good as Blanco or Casilla, but still added some good value, at roughly $5-7M per WAR: Yusmeiro Petit (1.8 bWAR/2.7 fWAR) and Chris Stewart (who the Giants traded and got George Kontos; Kontos 2.0 bWAR/0.3 fWAR; Stewart 1.5 bWAR/1.2 fWAR), Hunter Strickland (1.7 bWAR/1.0 fWAR), Jean Machi (2.2 bWAR/0.8 fWAR), all minor league free agents.
Oh, and Juan Uribe could be added to Blanco, as he was signed as a minor league free agent (Juan had 5.0 bWAR/5.6 fWAR for the Giants in a couple of seasons, and plenty more after – eventually), though he was a starting major leaguer previously. But at the point where the Giants signed him, his career was in a death spiral. And it resumed after he left, until he figured something out a couple of years ago.
And that aligns with something Jay Jaffe noted in his analysis of managers, as he found that hitters who joined Bochy-led teams experience an strong uptick in performance (on average, added 1 WAR per season). And apparently it took Uribe a couple of years to figure out what it was, as he has started hitting like he did with the Giants, in the past few years.
Say, where would one go to find a complete list of these minor league free agents? I’m hoping the Giants could find a strong defensive CF, hitting optional because the rest of the lineup is pretty good overall (when healthy and not being injured by the other team: Pence HBP, Aoki HBP twice, Belt kneed in the head, concussion).
Going a few years back, Cy-Young-vote-getter Ryan Vogelsong and MVP-vote-deserver Andres Torres were both minor league free agents who played major roles in Giants World Serieses. Someone in San Francisco is really good at this particular process.
Cesar Vargas is not left handed.
Needy’s August Tommy John surgery would seem to provide a pretty good reason to believe he won’t help anybody in 2016. Not clear yet whether he’s attempting a comeback, but if he does, he’ll probably wind up back in his hometown Padres’ organization.
Ortega signed with the Angels today on what I read was a major league contract. Sounds like he will be their OF off the bench.
Former 1st round pick Jio Mier becomes a free agent as well this year. I know he was scouted pretty heavily last year at Corpus Christi. The Mets specifically were interested in him. Compared him to Marwin Gonzalez as someone who’s glove and versatility could make for a good bench spot on an NL team.