A Mexican League Pref List

Before beginning in earnest, it’s essential or nearly essential for the reader to know that this post for FanGraphs.com on the internet relies on an improbable set of assumptions. One of those assumptions is this: that you (the reader) are a member of a major-league front office. Another is this: that you’ve solicited me, the author — a person who lives in rural New Hampshire and possesses only a basic reading-level command of Spanish — that you’ve solicited me to recommend some Mexican League players who might find some success in the majors. A third assumption is this: that you’re entirely comfortable with the knowledge that I’ve seen only a couple of these players in person — and even then it was at a spring-training game in Mexico City’s new facility while consuming a number of tall beers with British illustrator/dipsomaniac Craig Robinson.

Weirder things have probably happened than the scenario I’ve laid out above, but almost all of them have been confined to parties hosted by Silvio Berlusconi. What, then, is the purpose of this post? Mostly just to become acquainted with the most interesting (and generally young) talents in the Mexican League (or LMB).

It’s probably best to address first this question — namely, what sort of talent the LMB has produced in the past that has gone on to success in the American major leagues. The answer, broadly speaking, is that it has produced notable talent. Joakim Soria and Fernando Valenzuela, for example, both pitched in the LMB before ever making an appearance in the majors. Baseball’s current top pitching prospect, Julio Urias, was employed by the Diablos Rojos of Mexico City before that club and the Dodgers reached an agreement for him to move to the latter team. In a lower profile but still relevant instance, Houston acquired two other players from Mexico City: Japhet Amador and Leo Heras. The former was compelled to return to Mexico when his wife became ill, but Heras remains in the Astros system at the Double-A level, where he’s exhibited promising plate discipline and speed. These examples skew decidedly anecdotal, but the idea with them isn’t to supply anything like an exhaustive study, but rather merely to illustrate that a player from the LMB has ever once succeeded in the majors.

Always it’s best to complement any sort of endeavor such as this one with observational evidence. Owing to the author’s geographical constraints and also the paucity of video available for the LMB, however, that’s not really an option. In any case, one can reach some basic assumptions about a player’s talent level by considering certain relevant information and weighting it responsibly.

This sort of information, for example:

Age
Younger players are obviously more likely to improve — or at least not decline. Also, with regard to the LMB, specifically, one finds that the average age is on the older side — nearly 31 for batters and 29 for pitchers. For the purposes of this post, I’ve considered only those players who are 27 or younger.

Statistical Indicators
Research by Chris Mitchell both on hitting and pitching prospects reveals some traits that are generally shared by all those which go on to have success in the majors. Generally, hitters are on the young side for their minor-league levels. They post above-average (which is to say, lower) strikeout rates. They record above-average isolated-power figures. Strong walk rates can be predictive of future success for batters in the high minors. With regard to pitchers, age relative to level is also a factor. Beyond that, strikeout rate is most important. Walk rate is something more than negligible, but (also again) mostly at the high minors. For both hitters and pitchers, I’ve utilized a similar methodology to the one used to identify the top college players by (maybe) predictive stats.

Position
Essential to the calculation of WAR is the positional adjustment included in same. One finds, for example, that — all things being equal — that a shortstop who produces the same park-adjusted offensive line as a first baseman over the course of a season is worth about 20 runs, or roughly two wins, more than that same first baseman. It’s not the case necessarily that an LMB fielder would be sufficiently talented to play the same position in the majors that he did in Mexico, but his LMB positions oughtn’t be ignored, either. And the principle applies to pitchers, as well: starters are more valuable than relievers, and those pitchers who have the greatest probability of continuing to pitch in a starting capacity are more valuable than those that won’t.

Using the criteria above, two of the top players in the 2014 edition of the LMB were right-handed reliever Jesus Pirela and catcher Arturo Rodriguez. The former produced the top regressed line among LMB pitchers, recording strikeout and walk rates of 30.8% and 9.1%, respectively, over 53.2 innings. The latter finished within the top 10 among all qualified batters both by isolated slugging and also BABIP while also striking out less often than average — promising, that, given his position (catcher, as mentioned) and age (just 22). Both players were acquired by MLB organizations after the season — Texas and Miami, respectively.

What follows are the top-five players, each listed with their current age (in years and days) and relevant 2015 stats. Please note the current LMB averages for those stats, as follows: 8.7% walk rate, 16.0% strikeout rate, .129 isolated power.

1. Jasson Atondo, 2B/3B, Campeche (Profile)
Age: 19.253   PA: 70   BB%: 4.3%   K%: 5.7%   ISO: .082

Summary
One of the youngest regulars in all the LMB, Atondo hasn’t produced much of a slash line (.262/.297/.344), but the combination of age, contact rate, and defensive ability is promising. Also, at 6-foot-0 and 165 pounds, Atondo offers physical projection in a way that many LMB players don’t.

*****

2. Carlos Figueroa, OF, Mexico City (Profile)
Age: 23.027   PA: 130   BB%: 10.0%   K%: 12.3%   ISO: .114

Summary
As a 22-year-old, Figueroa produced almost identical walk and strikeout rates (10.4% and 11.2%, respectively) over 473 plate appearances. He’s made roughly three-quarters of his career defensive starts at center field, with the most of the others at second base. Converted only two-thirds of his 42 stolen-base attempts last year, which is perhaps cause for some concern.

*****

3. Sergio Burruel, C, Tabasco (Profile)
Age: 23.289   PA: 90   BB%: 17.8%   K%: 14.4%   ISO: .137

Summary
Given age, position, and offensive ability, is closest thing in LMB currently to Arturo Rodriguez, the catcher who signed with Miami. Burruel is actually an American who was selected by the Cubs in the 19th round of the 2009 draft. Made it to High-A in age-20 season but was released. Has already reached highest single-season plate-appearance total during four years in LMB.

*****

4. Efren (Alejandro) Delgado, LHP, Mexico City (Profile)
Age: 20.187   IP: 9.2   TBF: 37   K%: 35.1%   BB%: 5.4%

Summary
As with Atondo above, is compelling not just for elements of performance, but that performance relative to his age. reports of Delgado’s stuff are non-extant — or at least non-extant for one searching by means of remedial Spanish. One assumes that, given his handedness, that he could serve as a LOOGY if he lacks the requisite arm speed to deal with opposite-handed batters.

*****

5. Armando Rodriguez, RHP, Tabasco (Profile)
Age: 27.099   IP: 22.2   TBF: 77   K%: 29.9%   BB%: 3.9%

Summary
Rodriguez finished with the third-best regressed line among all LMB pitchers last year, not far behind the aforementioned Jesus Pirela (who’s produced strikeout and walk rates of 39.1% and 8.7% through 8.2 innings at Rangers Double-A affiliate Frisco). Rodriguez was formerly part of the Rangers system himself, with whom he exhibited an 89 mph fastball and also slider during spring training in 2014. That’s less impressive than Pirela’s repertoire (which features a 95 mph fastball), although one finds that Rodriguez actually had success at points as a minor leaguer with the Mets, suggesting that the performance isn’t necessarily an illusion.