A Mostly Restrained Examination of Manny Margot’s Hot Start

Over the winter, Eric Longenhagen had very nice things to say about Padres outfield prospect Manny Margot. He ranked Margot and 23rd overall in baseball. He also gave four of Margot’s five tools a grade of 60 or higher. Margot’s power was the only tool that didn’t receive a plus grade. Eric assigned Margot’s game power a present grade of 30 (or three to five homers per year) and a future grade of 40 (10-12 homers per year). In sum, he projected Margot to do everything but hit for power.

Nine games into the season, Margot has not adhered to those power grades. He already has three dingers to his name, tying him for eighth in baseball. His .343/.396/.686 batting line works out to a 182 wRC+. The guy who was supposed to do everything but hit for power is hitting for power. Eric said the following in his write-up of Margot, which is starting to look prescient.

It’s possible Margot may learn to elevate the ball more regularly as he matures, and if he does he’ll become a star-level player.

Yes, it’s only nine games. And, yes, punchless hitters sometimes bunch a few homers together by pure chance. Noted bunt machine Mallex Smith hit two in one game, for example, but few noticed because it didn’t happen in the first week of the season. But Margot is doing something very different than what he’s done in the past, and if he keeps doing it, he could be a bonafide star.

We already knew that Margot was a top-notch defender. Eric Longenhagen gave his speed, fielding, and arm grades of 70, 60, and 60, respectively. Clay Davenport’s numbers had him as a +12 defender in center last year. That’s 12 runs better than the average Triple-A center fielder. In the grand scheme of things, the average Triple-A center fielder is pretty good at defense.

We also knew Margot could make contact. He’s posted a strikeout rate below 13% at every minor-league stop since he reached full-season ball in 2014. He hit .292 over that span as a direct result. For that reason, Eric slapped a 60 on his hit tool. Add power to everything Margot already does, and that’s the definition of a five-tool player.

Admittedly, Margot doesn’t seem like the type of prospect who would suddenly start hitting for power. At a listed 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, he isn’t a particularly big guy, and scouting reports don’t suggest he has much power locked inside of him. But, then again, we all thought the same about O.G. KATOH crush Mookie Betts, who belted 31 homers last year. Ditto Brian Dozier, who cleared the 40 mark.

I’ve been monitoring Margot for a couple of years now due to his extreme contact and youth. KATOH’s a sucker for players like that, even if the power is absent. Betts and Jose Ramirez were a couple of KATOH success stories from this phylum. Every so often, the power comes along and you have a star. And if not, there’s a relatively high floor centered around contact and defense — essentially how we viewed Margot 10 days ago.

Margot’s KATOH projections hinted he’d be a better hitter than he seemed at present. The stats-only version of KATOH pegged him for a stellar 13.5 WAR over the next six seasons, second only to the highly controversial placement Dylan Cozens. KATOH+, which also incorporates Baseball America’s prospect rankings, ranked Margot at sixth overall with 14.6 WAR.

To put some faces to Margot’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the rookie center fielder. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Margot’s Triple-A performance and every Triple-A season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

The numbers in the right-hand column get large in a hurry. This is because there have been relatively few Triple-A prospects as good as Margot in the ways he was good. The most similar player, though, is interesting, as Sizemore was one of the best players in baseball from 2005 to -08. His 2004 season at Triple-A wasn’t that much different than Margot’s 2016.

Let’s be real for a second: Manny Margot almost certainly won’t be Grady Sizemore. But if Sizemore can go from a .151 ISO guy in Triple-A to a .200-plus ISO guy in the big leagues, who’s to say Margot can’t climb from .122 to .160? Random power spikes like that sometimes happen to players who are young and toolsy.

The season is young, so we only have a small sample of batted balls for Margot, and an even smaller sample for which we have exit-velocity readings (just 23). But Margot’s exit velocity numbers aren’t exactly those of a power hitter. He’s averaging 86 mph, with a max of 107. Here’s a list of hitters who averaged between 85 and 87 in 2016 with a max of at least 107.

That isn’t exactly powerful company. But even if Margot settles in as a 15-ish-homer guy with decent on-base numbers like most of the names in the top half of the above list, that still makes him a very good player. League-average offense paired with elite defense and baserunning can run up a player’s WAR total in a hurry. Just ask Kevin Kiermaier.

Margot wasn’t supposed to hit much this year. He got to the majors by way of his legs and his glove, not his bat. Steamer and ZiPS pegged him for a paltry 82 wRC+ this season, and on a non-Padres team, he might be in Triple-A right now working on his hitting. Yet here we are on April 12th and Margot is raking. While my confirmation-bias bells are sounding on high, I’m kind of buying it. Margot isn’t going to continue playing like a great hitter this year, but he’s looking more and more like a good hitter every day.