A Very Current Statistical Report on the Arizona Fall League
The author has published each of the last four weeks (One, Two, Three, Four), in these pages, a statistical report on the Arizona Fall League not necessarily because such a thing is of great utility to prospect analysis, but more because, for those of us not currently present in the Greater Phoenix area, it’s one of the few ways to participate in that very compelling league.
What follows, for the pleasure of the readership, is the fifth edition of this site’s weekly AFL statistical report.
Very Current SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Hitters
Below is the very current SCOUT batting leaderboard for all Arizona Fall League hitters. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average and above 100 is above average. Note that xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.
| Player | MLB | Age | PA | HR | BB | K | xHR% | xBB% | xK% | SCOUT+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas La Stella | Braves | 24 | 66 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 1.7% | 15.8% | 6.1% | 143 |
| Matt Skole | Nationals | 23 | 48 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3.1% | 17.4% | 20.9% | 135 |
| Jared Mitchell | White Sox | 24 | 59 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 2.9% | 14.7% | 17.0% | 133 |
| Michael Ohlman | Orioles | 22 | 29 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 2.7% | 15.8% | 17.5% | 132 |
| Henry Urrutia | Orioles | 26 | 53 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 129 |
| Mitchell Haniger | Brewers | 22 | 81 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 2.7% | 11.9% | 14.8% | 126 |
| Dustin Garneau | Rockies | 25 | 41 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 3.1% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 124 |
| C.J. Cron | Angels | 23 | 57 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3.0% | 9.9% | 14.4% | 124 |
| Pratt Maynard | Dodgers | 23 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.2% | 12.9% | 15.7% | 122 |
| Andrew Susac | Giants | 23 | 42 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 1.9% | 15.5% | 18.0% | 121 |
Very Current SCOUT Leaderboard: AFL Pitchers
Below is the very current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the AFL. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than average. Note that xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.
| Player | MLB | Age | G | GS | IP | TBF | K | BB | xK% | xBB% | SCOUT- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Urlaub | Athletics | 26 | 8 | 0 | 9.0 | 32 | 13 | 1 | 29.9% | 9.5% | 71 |
| Nick Wittgren | Marlins | 22 | 9 | 0 | 9.2 | 36 | 13 | 2 | 28.7% | 9.8% | 76 |
| Angel Baez | Royals | 22 | 6 | 0 | 9.2 | 47 | 16 | 6 | 29.7% | 11.5% | 77 |
| Cam Bedrosian | Angels | 21 | 5 | 0 | 5.1 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 27.2% | 10.1% | 81 |
| Jonas Dufek | Astros | 25 | 6 | 0 | 8.1 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 26.5% | 9.9% | 82 |
| Dominic Leone | Mariners | 21 | 8 | 0 | 9.0 | 38 | 11 | 1 | 25.3% | 9.1% | 83 |
| Alex Meyer | Twins | 23 | 5 | 5 | 17.1 | 72 | 18 | 5 | 25.0% | 9.3% | 84 |
| Zachary Thornton | Pirates | 25 | 8 | 0 | 11.2 | 44 | 12 | 2 | 24.9% | 9.3% | 85 |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22 | 4 | 4 | 15.2 | 57 | 14 | 2 | 23.9% | 8.5% | 85 |
| Seth Frankoff | Athletics | 24 | 9 | 0 | 9.1 | 39 | 11 | 2 | 25.0% | 9.6% | 85 |
On the Absence of Kris Bryant from the Batting Leaderboard
After demonstrating considerable power this year as a collegiate player at the University of San Diego and then again, in his first season as a professional, with both Low-A Boise and High-A Daytona, Cubs third-base prospect Kris Bryant has continued to demonstrate considerable power with the Mesa Solar Sox in the AFL, hitting a league-best six home runs in just 64 plate appearances. Why he’s absent from the batting leaderboard is because home-run rate becomes reliable in a larger sample than do either walk or strikeout rate. As a result, regression acts more strongly upon it (i.e. home-run rate) by the methodology utilized here. Bryant ranks 13th among 106 AFL batters to have recorded a plate appearance, with a 117 SCOUT+ — just ahead of organizational colleague Albert Almora, actually.
Bo Schultz Watch
One could be excused for not considering Arizona right-hander Bo Schultz a prospect proper, on account of he (i.e. Schultz) was undrafted out of college, has been in the minors for six years already, and just turned 28 years old. That said, he’s spent the majority of the AFL season on the pitching leaderboard here and also, according to PITCHf/x data from Brooks Baseball, has been sitting at 94-95 mph with his fastball. His most recent start (on November 1st) wasn’t his most impressive, it appears. To wit: 5.0 IP, 21 TBF, 2 K, 3 BB, 5 H, 0, HR.
Other Starting Pitchers
The pitching leaderboard, as one can see here, is populated largely by relievers, owing to their naturally more impressive per-inning stats. After Alex Meyer (Minnesota) and Drew Hutchison (Toronto), who make the top 10 on their own merits, one finds the next three starters, in order: Samuel Solis (Washington, 88 SCOUT-), the aforementioned Bo Schultz (Arizona, 89 SCOUT-), and Brandon Maurer (Seattle, 89 SCOUT-).
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Matt Skole is currently hitting .184/.392/.447
Quite the stat line.
It’s possible that’s he’s a true-talent .160 BABIP hitter. One supposes otherwise, however.