A WPA Look at the Houdinis

Being a magician myself I am very familiar with the work of the legendary Harry Houdini. A masterful illusionist and escape artist, Houdini ruled the magic world from 1899 until his untimely 1926 death. His name continues to live on in magic lore but apparently has found its way into the game of baseball. At Bill James’s website a statistic is kept, titled “Houdinis.” Much more of a list than a stat, persay, it keeps track of every pitcher that finds himself in a bases loaded, no outs situation, and escapes unscathed. In terms of technicalities, the pitcher cannot be charged with a run at all in the inning, regardless of whether or not it scored as a result of the bases being loaded; if I give up a home run, then load the bases and escape the situation, it does not count.

This year, the following pitchers have recorded Houdinis:

• Rafael Betancourt, 3/31, Top 8
• Rich Harden, 4/2, Top 1
• Michael Wuertz, 4/2, Top 7
• Jamie Moyer, 4/3, Top 2
• Tony Pena, 4/5, Bot 8
• Dustin McGowan, 4/9, Top 5
• Jamey Wright, 4/14, Top 8
• Jesse Carlson, 4/16, Top 11
• Franklyn German, 4/21, Bot 6
• Nelson Figueroa, 4/22, Bot 2

Seeing as Fangraphs specializes in win probability data it seemed natural to look at the WPA of each situation. This will enable us to determine which Houdini act was the most magical. There is a potential problem right off the bat, though, in that a pitcher inheriting the bases loaded and escaping without damage will always have a higher WPA; they would not be debited at all for loading the bases. Due to this, Jesse Carlson’s performance of +.479 would completely dwarf everyone else; the other nine pitchers, who began their inning, came in at +.112 or below. We could revert to WPA/LI to get a context-neutral feel but, since Carlson is alone in terms of inheriting the bases loaded it is easier and just as WPA-effective to simply exclude him. Here are the results:

• Betancourt, .112
• McGowan, .072
• Figueroa, .052
• Harden, .049
• Moyer, .017
• Pena, .015
• Wuertz, .013
• Wright, .010
• German, .001

German got in and out of the jam while trailing 8-0 to the Red Sox; they were not very likely to win prior to his efforts and had not really increased their chances regardless of his magical escape act. Betancourt’s WPA leads primarily due to the fact that his Houdini occurred in the 8th inning of a 7-7 game and recorded three outs on a fielder’s choice (out at home) and double play to end the inning. Still, though, Carlson entered the top of the eleventh inning, in a tie game, with the bases loaded, and struck out the side to end the threat. Pretty darned impressive.