Adding Insult to Self-Inflicted Injury

Let’s face it: Khalil Greene stunk this year. He entered 2008 as a .253/.306/.446 true talent hitter, projected to hit 35 doubles and launch 20 home runs. These numbers may not be remarkable, but they look Ruthian compared to his .213/.260/.339 line in 105 games this season. You won’t find him on the leaderboards here but if you adjust the qualifier to those with 400+ plate appearances, Greene can be found second from the bottom—to just Michael Bourn—with his .599 OPS, and fifth from the bottom amongst senior circuit hitters in WPA/LI, with a -1.56. In about two-thirds of the season, Greene was one and a half win worse than an average hitter.

His strikeout rate, which was projected to be around 21% this year was actually 25.7%. His BABIP, which had ranged from .277 to .287 over the last three years, dropped to .262, which is not monumental given that he seemed like 15-25 points below .300 was his true talent level, but still a cause for his poor production. Khalil’s Marcel projection for Isolated Power was .192 and he finished sixty-six points below, at .126.

His fielding also took a hit. After recording a +13 in 2006 and a +7 last year, Greene lost range to his right, at which he had been quite good the last few years, and his ability to range left worsened as well, ultimately resulting in a -4. His frustration at poor production came to its boiling point on July 30, against the Diamondbacks.

After recording his one-hundredth strikeout of the season, Greene punched a storage cabinet at Petco Park, breaking a bone in his left hand. He missed the rest of the season, meaning there would be no opportunity to regress or improve. For reference, via WPA/LI, in the national league, only Jeff Franceour, Michael Bourn, Jeff Keppinger, and Cesar Izturis had worse seasons. As the title of this post suggests, however, there is more to this story. Because Greene’s injury was self-inflicted and not the byproduct of an on field incident, Sandy Alderson and the Padres are looking to get their hands on about 1.47 of the 4.5 million dollars Greene was set to make this year.

I’m curious to hear your thoughts on this. I understand baseball is a business and yadda yadda, but the team was not going anywhere this year, at least by July 30, and so Greene’s frustration-induced-injury didn’t necessarily prevent them from making the playoffs. If you’re in Alderson’s shoes, do you look to recollect some of the money too?