| 7:30 |
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, and welcome to our chat for Game 1 of the ALCS
|
| 7:31 |
Ben Clemens: David Laurila, Tony Wolfe, and I will be chatting with you all game.
|
| 7:31 |
Ben Clemens: If you’d like a preview of the game, Eric Longenhagen wrote one up this morning:
|
| 7:31 |
Ben Clemens: Additionally, ZiPS has game-by-game predictions for this series as well as the NLCS:
|
| 7:32 |
Derek: Let’s hope for no Dak-esque injuries this postseason
|
| 7:32 |
Ben Clemens: Fingers crossed!
|
| 7:32 |
Tony Wolfe: Hi everyone. Hope everyone got by okay during our one (1) day without playoff baseball
|
| 7:33 |
Ben Clemens: There are lots of worst parts of sports, but injuries that rob players of part of their prime are wayyyy up there
|
| 7:34 |
Guest: So, I’m on the bandwagon that expanded playoffs are a bad idea. OTOH, I’m enjoying having games every night and I like that teams actually need more than three starters. What’s the optimal solution here?
|
| 7:34 |
Ben Clemens: I am pretty sure I don’t like expanded playoffs, but like you, I’m much more on the fence in terms of the strategy that teams have had to deploy this year.
|
| 7:34 |
Ben Clemens: I loved Cole and Glasnow coming back on short rest, and the drama involved in making that choice.
|
| 7:35 |
Ben Clemens: I actually don’t think this is fixable, though. When teams play at home again, they’ll need a travel day.
|
| 7:36 |
Ben Clemens: The expanded playoffs aren’t what are making every team go 5 deep or come up with some patch, it’s the no off days. I simply don’t think there’s a playoff format with no off days, expanded playoffs or no, that can work when the Mariners could theoretically play the Yankees.
|
| 7:38 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I promise you, Carlos, winning will not stop the criticism. Winning this year is unrelated to the criticism and will, in fact, make it worse.
|
| 7:38 |
Derek: This a 3-man booth I can actually get behind!
|
| 7:38 |
Ben Clemens: Incredible opening gambit by the announcers. “The Astros were banging away against Oakland in the Divisional Series.”
|
| 7:38 |
Ben Clemens: I see what you did there
|
| 7:39 |
Guest: The reason you cite for this problem not being fixable assumes that teams must play in their home stadiums when possible. But could MLB go to an all-neutral-site playoff format, not unlike college bowl games are held at neutral sites?
|
| 7:40 |
Tony Wolfe: I couldn’t imagine owners would go for that. There’s a lot of gate revenue to be had that should incentivize a team getting home field advantage
|
| 7:40 |
 David Laurila: Hello all. Had some technical issues, but I’m here to talk baseball.
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: I’d add to Tony’s point that I like teams having home field advantage.
|
| 7:40 |
Ben Clemens: Playoff crowds are incredible
|
| 7:41 |
David Laurila: Of note, The Rays have gone 8-1-1 on their last 10 series with the Astros. The losing series was last year’s ALDS.
|
| 7:42 |
David Laurila: Also, the Rays have gone 13-1-4 in their last 18 series. This is since August 4 and against all teams.
|
| 7:42 |
Derek: Any lineup surprises for either team here?
|
| 7:43 |
Tony Wolfe: Altuve dingers in the second AB of the game. Houston up 1-0
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: The Rays are basically as expected; their bench is five lefties, which means they’re playing their most-right-handed lineups
|
| 7:43 |
Ben Clemens: I guessssss you could argue Aledmys Diaz at DH is a surprise, but they are light on righty bats
|
| 7:44 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: That legendary inning in Toronto with the errors and thrown beers does not happen at a neutral site.
|
| 7:44 |
Guest: What percentage of fans do you think is rooting for the Rays over the Astros?
|
| 7:44 |
Ben Clemens: Oh gosh, 80%?
|
| 7:44 |
Ben Clemens: It’s gonna be huge
|
| 7:44 |
David Laurila: I’ve tweeted a few times recently that Altuve’s poor season was an injury-related anomaly and that he’s still a top-notch hitter. He’s a top-notch hitter.
|
| 7:45 |
Tony Wolfe: The college bowl game doesn’t really work either because those ask fans to travel for just one game. Even just a neutral site World Series would be asking a LOT from fans
|
| 7:45 |
Kevinthecomic: Renfroe a bit of a surprise – no starts and only 1 ab in the alds
|
| 7:46 |
Guest: What are you guys rooting for this in series? Rays sweep? Astros in 7? Etc.?
|
| 7:46 |
Tony Wolfe: I think there are perfectly sensible reasons to root against either of these teams. I do, however, think the Astros winning a title this year after everything that’s happened would objectively be very funny
|
| 7:46 |
Ben Clemens: The Yankees aren’t a great matchup for Renfroe, who wants to bat against lefty starters. I’d argue that the real surprise was taking Brett Phillips off the roster, but they just have a ton of lefty bats.
|
| 7:47 |
Guest: This is worse than watching the Patriots win every year despite their history of cheating.
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: The worst part for me is how much we have to talk about it!
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: The Astros picked a thing to motivate themselves
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: It’s stupid, but it seems to work.
|
| 7:47 |
Ben Clemens: Can we just leave it like that instead of spending an hour of every broadcast talking about how they’re circling the wagons?
|
| 7:48 |
Also Ben: Right after Phillips lost the dance contest too
|
| 7:48 |
Guest: For Tony: What is the reason to root against the Rays?
|
| 7:50 |
Tony Wolfe: Their lack of spending reasonably bothers a lot of people. It’s not as big of a turn-off for me personally, but I totally understand people who can’t get behind it
|
| 7:50 |
Ben Clemens: I personally separate rooting for the Rays players and rooting for the Rays ownership
|
| 7:50 |
Ben Clemens: They’re really fun! The team is a ton of fun to watch, and it’s neat to see people work with constraints
|
| 7:51 |
Ben Clemens: Ownership group? Chumps! Spend more money.
|
| 7:51 |
Ben Clemens: But let’s be clear: every ownership group, more or less, would love to get to do what Tampa does, which is be great without spending money
|
| 7:51 |
Josh: would they consider giving home field advantage for the entire series to the team with the higher seed? it might help to encourage more competitiveness in the regular season too
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: That’s kind of interesting. I don’t think they’d do it because it would be such a big change from tradition
|
| 7:52 |
Guest: Re: Derek’s comment: What’s the most impactful injury that has occurred during the post-season in MLB’s history?
|
| 7:52 |
David Laurila: Not technically the answer you’re looking for, but in 1946 Ted Williams got hit on the elbow by a pitch in an exhibition game against an All-Star team a few days before the World Series. (Yes, that happened,) He played hurt and went 5 for 25 in the Series.
|
| 7:52 |
Ben Clemens: But that’s one way you could have everyday games
|
| 7:52 |
Mariners Fans: If they change the neutral site from year to year though (like the All Star games) I might actually get to see a post-season game in person though.
|
| 7:53 |
Ben Clemens: I think this was a big missed chance here for the announcers to talk about how you feel when you’re hot. Francoeur was talking about how Correa is the hottest hitter, and I’d be curious to see what he means by that
|
| 7:53 |
Tony Wolfe: I’m not so sure Seattle would be where you’d go out of your way to put October baseball
|
| 7:54 |
Ben Clemens: Francoeur has been excellent in this postseason, I think. I’d like to hear him expand on that one, though, rather than just saying “Correa is so hot right now” a la Zoolander
|
| 7:55 |
David Laurila: On other lead-into-the-series note: During the regular season the Astros went 4-13 versus teams that finished .500 or better.
|
| 7:56 |
Guest: Great story on Ted Williams. At least the NFL had the good sense to exempt players in the SB from the Pro Bowl when they decided to have the Pro Bowl before the SB a few years ago.
|
| 7:57 |
Derek: Wow. It’s wild that the Astros only played 17 games against teams w/ winning records (I know that doesn’t mean much in the context of this season’s schedule, but still!)
|
| 7:57 |
Ben Clemens: So I guess 10 against Oakland, then 7 against LA/SD
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: The rest of the teams in the west finished below .500
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: The A’s probably played only 7 games against teams over .500 all year
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| 7:58 |
ZiPS: Surprised that Zips gives the Rays a slightly higher chance vs. the Astros than it does Dodgers over Braves? Does that say more about 1) how good the Rays are, 2) how good the Braves are, or 3) how weak the Astros’ regular season was?
|
| 7:58 |
Ben Clemens: I’m wondering about this as well
|
| 7:59 |
Ben Clemens: I think it’s a mix of 2) and 3), but I think ZiPS is too low on the Astros
|
| 7:59 |
David Laurila: I’m of the opinion that a sub-.500 team reaching the World Series would be worse than a team that was involved in a cheating scandal reaching the World Series.
|
| 8:00 |
Ben Clemens: Why not both?!?
|
| 8:00 |
Ben Clemens: I’m not sure which is worse, but both are really bad looks
|
| 8:01 |
Ben Clemens: And the fact that the Astros weren’t punished enough will only make it look worse. I don’t think I’m exactly being conspiratorial when I say that I bet MLB asked the announcers covering Astros game to avoid talkin about scandals and punishments
|
| 8:01 |
Ben Clemens: But I’m not sure that will fly should they meet the Dodgers in the World Series
|
| 8:02 |
Derek: That was almost an immaculate inning!
|
| 8:03 |
Grant: re: ZiPS… Atlanta’s odds are boosted quite a bit by the model apparently liking their chances in the Fried/Buehler matchup
|
| 8:03 |
Ben Clemens: ZiPS loves* Fried too!
|
| 8:04 |
Guest: Which WS matchup would you prefer: Rays-Braves (because it means the Astros lost) or Astros-Dodgers (because the 2017 rematch would be great drama)?
|
| 8:04 |
David Laurila: I think any of the matchups would make for a good story line.
|
| 8:04 |
Wire Fan: Why do broadcasters keep perpetuating the myth that Jose Altuve is a good fielder? He isn’t even an average fielder. Is is just because he is short?
|
| 8:05 |
Ben Clemens: I think it’s largely because he’s short, but it also helps that his height makes the plays he does make look more impressive
|
| 8:06 |
S: Too many teams have powder blue uniforms.
|
| 8:06 |
Ben Clemens: I do not agree with this take at all
|
| 8:06 |
Ben Clemens: I think that some powder blue jerseys don’t work well, but I like the Rays’ implementation of it a lot
|
| 8:07 |
Derek: Rays-Dodgers would probably morph into a financial David vs. Goliath narrative
|
| 8:07 |
David Laurila: Yes. That would be a tired narrative, but it would be a narrative indeed.
|
| 8:07 |
Ben Clemens: Not a huge fan of Snell’s dark blue long sleeves, I’d rather see him with light blue sleeves, but that’s nit picking
|
| 8:07 |
Guest: Do you think the Rangers or Angels are a threat to the Astros/As at all next year?
|
| 8:08 |
Tony Wolfe: I think the Angels could get there theoretically, if they add more pitching (evergreen statement) and the other two regress a bit, which is certainly possible
|
| 8:08 |
Tony Wolfe: The Rangers seem to be in a lot of trouble
|
| 8:08 |
S: I agree that the Rays is among the best, but teams like the Mariners and Twins shouldn’t have them.
|
| 8:09 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t like the Twins’ blue uniforms, but I think many people do
|
| 8:09 |
Grant: I dislike the powder blue for the Rangers
|
| 8:09 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah the Rangers don’t need a blue jersey, agree
|
| 8:09 |
Ben Clemens: I think their star logo works really well in big bold red and blue
|
| 8:10 |
Ben Clemens: Although I guess they don’t use that very much anymore
|
| 8:11 |
Sam: After last year I would’ve been pretty shocked to know that Meadows wouldn’t be starting in a playoff game. Not a critique it’s just interesting, really seemed like he would be their *guy*
|
| 8:12 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah Meadows’ progression has to be concerning for the Rays
|
| 8:12 |
Ben Clemens: Or rather, career arc, since it’s hardly progression this year.
|
| 8:12 |
DresTheAce: Does TB’s unfamiliarity with HOU’s rookie relievers have any bearing?
|
| 8:12 |
David Laurila: Again not answering a question directly, but one of the charms of the pre-inter-league era was teams having little or no familiarity with each other during the World Series.
|
| 8:13 |
Ben Clemens: Meadows was hurt this year, so I’m willing to give him a mulligan
|
| 8:13 |
Ben Clemens: That said, I’d rather see him hitting than not
|
| 8:14 |
Guest: With Morton hitting free agency, do you think the Rays could bring in Bauer as a replacement for a short-term, high AAV starting pitcher contract
|
| 8:14 |
Josh: do the angels have the financial flexibility to add *good* pitching this offseason? bauer would be a nice add, but very expensive if he goes through with only doing 1 year contracts
|
| 8:14 |
Ben Clemens: I’m curious to see if Bauer is going to go through with his string of 1-year deals plan. The market for contracts is going to be AWFUL this offseason
|
| 8:15 |
Ben Clemens: I’ve seen people put 40-50 million numbers on what people would pay for a year of Bauer and uh, no
|
| 8:15 |
Ben Clemens: In this economy?!?
|
| 8:15 |
Ben Clemens: To overuse a meme
|
| 8:16 |
Wire Fan: Chances MLB sticks with 8 playoff teams next year? Players should fight it tooth and nail, no? Seems like you would have massive salary stagnation or depression as teams can just build mid 80 win teams
|
| 8:16 |
David Laurila: I think it’s pretty clear that 16 is too many. That said, the powers that be don’t necessarily have the best interests of the game in mind.
|
| 8:16 |
Ben Clemens: That said I think that the Rays are probably not in the Bauer market, even if it’s 2/60 or whatever
|
| 8:17 |
Josh: seems like his willingness to do 1 year deals would hinge on convincing teams to let him pitch every 4th day instead of every 5th. money matters, but he’s a weirdo who love a chance to buck convention
|
| 8:18 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah… I really don’t get that. Rebuild your whole rotation around my quirk in exchange for a little extra value that I’m sure I have, though you might not agree with me on that
|
| 8:18 |
Ben Clemens: Oh and by the way, if it works, I’m leaving after this year
|
| 8:19 |
Grant: Are the Angels a good candidate to let Bauer go every 4 days? Between potentially having to work around Ohtani go only once a week, and an unconventional manager in Maddon, I think you can squint and see it working.
|
| 8:20 |
Ben Clemens: As good as anyone, I suppose, I just think it’s a really pricey experiment if he isn’t bringing a ton of data showing his performance in max-effort starts on 3 days of rest
|
| 8:20 |
Ben Clemens: Now, if he’s bringing that, instead of it just being a theory of his, I’m more interested I suppose?
|
| 8:21 |
David Laurila: I think Bauer has set himself up to play for only a win-now-mode team — this assumes he gets a qualifying offer — as it’s tough to give up draft picks for only one guaranteed year of his services.
|
| 8:21 |
Ben Clemens: Very good point! And I think he’ll definitely get a QO
|
| 8:21 |
Ben Clemens: The Reds would be happy to bring him back for one year at $19 million
|
| 8:22 |
Guest: The only way Bauer does not get a QO is if Dick Williams left the office locked and forgot to leave the keys behind when he resigned.
|
| 8:22 |
Lzfreak: He wouldn’t accept the QO would he? Hard to gauge the market but still
|
| 8:23 |
Ben Clemens: Nah, I think there’s a near-zero chance he’d accept it
|
| 8:24 |
Kevinthecomic: Who u got 4 most surprising performance this year, good or bad? — Solano? Pederson?
|
| 8:24 |
Ben Clemens: For the good side, I’m actually going to go with another Giant, Mike Yastrzemski
|
| 8:24 |
Ben Clemens: He was one of the best players in the league this year and did it in a way that looks sustainable
|
| 8:24 |
Ben Clemens: I did NOT see that coming
|
| 8:25 |
Ben Clemens: To be clear, I don’t think he’s this good, but I don’t think it was a complete mirage either, and that’s really impressive for a guy I had pegged as a quad-A type
|
| 8:25 |
Tony Wolfe: He cooled off a bit as the season went on, but I was really surprised by Dylan Bundy turning into an ace
|
| 8:25 |
Ben Clemens: Praising Francoeur was a great way to get him talking about pitcher-vs-batter splits 🙁
|
| 8:26 |
Derek: A postseason pickoff!
|
| 8:26 |
Ben Clemens: Springer not even bothering to get into a pickle was kinda funny
|
| 8:26 |
Ben Clemens: He was just like okay fine you got me
|
| 8:27 |
David Laurila: Regarding surprising performances, I don’t think anyone expected Jose Iglesias to have a 160 wRC+. (Same as Yaz 2.0.)
|
| 8:27 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: TOOTBLAN is harsh when you’re running on first movement against the lefty.
|
| 8:28 |
Ben Clemens: Perhaps going on first motion against Snell is the nincompoop part of it
|
| 8:28 |
Ben Clemens: It’s not like Springer is a base-stealing savant or anything. 48 SB and 31 CS in his career, that is BAD
|
| 8:29 |
Grant: What’s the statistical ‘break-even’ on SB%? Like 75ish%?
|
| 8:29 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, 75% is a great rule of thumb
|
| 8:29 |
Sam: Anything noticeable up with Snell? This one is obviously still early, but he seemed to get hit pretty hard in his start against the Yankees too
|
| 8:30 |
Tony Wolfe: His velocity is normal. One thing noticeable is that he’s not fooling anyone with his fastball
|
| 8:30 |
Tony Wolfe: He’s gotten just two whiffs on his four-seamer across his last two starts
|
| 8:30 |
Ben Clemens: That seems bad!
|
| 8:30 |
Derek: It’s almost exactly 75%, no? I remember an article someone wrote here that broke it down by situation
|
| 8:30 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah there are situations where it’s better. Stealing second with two outs in the inning is good, that kinda thing
|
| 8:30 |
Ben Clemens: Stealing second with no one out is worse
|
| 8:31 |
Ben Clemens: But the aggregate is almost exaclty 75%
|
| 8:31 |
David Laurila: Altuve is 33 for his last 98 in the postseason.
|
| 8:32 |
Guest: Do you think any of Springer, Brantley, or Reddick ends up back with the Astros?
|
| 8:33 |
Ben Clemens: Reddick really shouldn’t considering they have Tucker and presumably Yordan
|
| 8:33 |
Ben Clemens: I have just no idea at all on Correa
|
| 8:34 |
Ben Clemens: I think the team might use the forfeited draft picks as an excuse to go cheap this offseason
|
| 8:34 |
Ben Clemens: Springer*, not Correa
|
| 8:34 |
Tony Wolfe: Correa’s also gonna be a “who the heck knows” situation though
|
| 8:34 |
Derek: I’ve resigned myself to never actually knowing if Jose Iglesias is good or not
|
| 8:34 |
David Laurila: He’s definitely good with the glove! Would have been viewed far more favorably back in the days when shortstops were defense-first and batting average was bigger than OBP.
|
| 8:35 |
Ben Clemens: Iglesias turning out to be excellent on defense after scuffling at first is very satisfying
|
| 8:36 |
Ben Clemens: Because I defy you to watch him play defense and not come away thinking “Wow that guy is excellent”
|
| 8:37 |
Kevinthecomic: So, did the Dodgers “know something” when they tried to trade Pederson for Rengifo?
|
| 8:37 |
Tony Wolfe: Iglesias going from a .296 xwOBA in 2019 to .372 this year is absolutely wild considering he still never really hit anything hard
|
| 8:38 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s any secret that the Dodgers were down on Joc, they keep not making him a full-time player despite opportunities to do so
|
| 8:38 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is the dumb in-the-base angle allowed for replay review?
|
| 8:39 |
Ben Clemens: I’m not a big fan of the base cam
|
| 8:39 |
Ben Clemens: Dirt’s not that interesting
|
| 8:39 |
Tony Wolfe: It doesn’t really show anything
|
| 8:39 |
Kevinthecomic: That was a dart by Maldonado
|
| 8:39 |
Guest: Commercial Break Trivia: Who was the first MLB player to earn 10MM or more in a season?
|
| 8:39 |
David Laurila: The base cam is a gimmick, and that’s about it.
|
| 8:40 |
Ben Clemens: Without any real idea of whether this is the right era, I’ll say Rickey Henderson
|
| 8:40 |
Sam: I think it is of utmost importance to know that Mike Zunino had 3 singles this year
|
| 8:41 |
Derek: I think it’s mid-’90s… Pedro maybe?
|
| 8:41 |
Ben Clemens: Answer to come at the end of commercials
|
| 8:42 |
Kevinthecomic: Damn, I remember the hoopla when the Jay’s signed Bill Caudill to be their closer for a million per — ’85 I think
|
| 8:42 |
Lzfreak: That seems like a bad challenge
|
| 8:42 |
Guest: Trivia Answer: Albert Belle
|
| 8:42 |
Ben Clemens: I was not even close!
|
| 8:43 |
Guest: I might be inviting the pitchforks, but I won’t be *super* upset if the Astros advance. Yeah, they have some arrogant trash humans on their team, but they’re also good baseball players and it feels weird to get so worked up over sports in the fire that is 2020.
|
| 8:43 |
David Laurila: I agree with this from the cheating angle. That said, the sub-.500 thing is a big negative.
|
| 8:43 |
Guest: Correa, Lindor, Seager, Story, Baez: Who hits free agency, who gets traded, who gets extended?
|
| 8:44 |
Tony Wolfe: My hunch is Story gets extended, just because the Rockies are weird and tend to do things I don’t expect them to
|
| 8:45 |
Ben Clemens: Trying to go inside to Bregman is a mistake
|
| 8:45 |
Ben Clemens: I assume that it was, literally, a mistake pitch
|
| 8:45 |
Tony Wolfe: Kevin Cash looks a lot like Bill Burr to me
|
| 8:46 |
David Laurila: Re the Bill Caudill comment, the Red Sox signed Bill Campbell to a five-year contract worth $200,000 annually in the mid-70s. That was a big-money signing for a closer.
|
| 8:47 |
Guest: Do you guys do fantasy at all? Where are you looking at Valdez in 2021 drafts?
|
| 8:47 |
Ben Clemens: I do play fantasy, but I would not consider myself a fantasy expert, unlike the fine people at RotoGraphs
|
| 8:48 |
Ben Clemens: So I’ll defer to Paul Sporer’s early 2021 rankings:
|
| 8:48 |
Ben Clemens: Which have Framber as the 39th SP off the board
|
| 8:49 |
Josh: is a snell 5 inning outing really that big of a deal if he only allows 1? he hasn’t gone deep in his outings this year (or in his career, really); it’s just kind of who he is or has been
|
| 8:49 |
Tony Wolfe: I think five is more or less all the Rays expect from him right now
|
| 8:49 |
Ben Clemens: I think the seven games in seven days aspect makes it matter a little more
|
| 8:50 |
Ben Clemens: But also, Ron Darling is the one talking about going deep the most, and he spends most of his time watching the Mets
|
| 8:50 |
Ben Clemens: It’s an easy way to get the wrong conception of how deep into games starters should go
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: Okay look Jeff Francoeur. I said you were great. And now you’re bringing “Kyle Tucker is 5-6 with RISP this postseason”?
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: At least use the whole regular season split
|
| 8:51 |
Derek: Mound visit drew up that play I’m pretty sure
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: The Rays have the best plays out of timeouts
|
| 8:51 |
Ben Clemens: Popovich-esque
|
| 8:53 |
Ben Clemens: Speaking of basketball, hoo boy
|
| 8:53 |
Ben Clemens: Looks like the Finals are all but over
|
| 8:54 |
David Laurila: Jeff Sullivan is probably watching this game.
|
| 8:54 |
Derek: Yeah let’s hope we don’t get a 30-point blowout in this one
|
| 8:55 |
Ben Clemens: I think at 30 you can call them points
|
| 8:56 |
Tony Wolfe: At 30 the trailing team should get deploy the ol’ blue shell
|
| 8:56 |
Tony Wolfe: To take from Ben’s Mario Kart idea
|
| 8:56 |
Tony Wolfe: What would the blue shell be? The team in the lead loses their chance to bat for an inning?
|
| 8:57 |
Ben Clemens: I’d like to see an actual Blue Shell chase runners around the bases
|
| 8:57 |
Tony Wolfe: blue shell… blake snell….. is there anything there
|
| 8:57 |
Ben Clemens: But failing that… either skipping a turn at bat or starting 0-2 or something like that
|
| 8:58 |
Guest: So are the Rays named after sunshine or the marine animal? I thought the former after their name change, but the hats tonight suggest the latter.
|
| 8:58 |
Ben Clemens: I believe that the official answer now is a Ray of light, as can be seen in their main logo
|
| 8:58 |
Ben Clemens: These throwback hats sure do make it confusing though
|
| 8:59 |
Sam: Pitchers get to pitch from 30 feet for the blue shell
|
| 9:00 |
Derek: Wait I thought it was always the sea animal. Don’t they still have a tank of actual real-life rays in their stadium?
|
| 9:00 |
Ben Clemens: It initially was but they changed to the Ray of Light look at some point post name change
|
| 9:00 |
Lzfreak: Thought it was a guy named Ray
|
| 9:00 |
David Laurila: Trivia time: Who hit the first home run in Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays history?
|
| 9:01 |
Ben Clemens: Hm… Wade Boggs?
|
| 9:01 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: McCracken?
|
| 9:02 |
David Laurila: Boggs is the right answer.
|
| 9:02 |
Ben Clemens: I just only think of him when I think “early Tampa Bay years”
|
| 9:02 |
BLAB: High Five, Mr. Clemens.
|
| 9:04 |
Derek: Do all outfielders talk to themselves like that? It’s actually fantastic
|
| 9:04 |
Ben Clemens: Here’s a little Inside FanGraphs tidbit: I talk to myself like that all the time
|
| 9:04 |
Ben Clemens: My wife, who is currently also working at home, doesn’t really appreciate it
|
| 9:04 |
David Laurila: Wade Boggs had a five-year stretch where his OBP was .454. He was truly something.
|
| 9:05 |
Tony Wolfe: I pace when I’m working on stories and my fiance HATES it
|
| 9:05 |
Chamaco: They were supposed to originally be the Tampa Bay Sting Rays, but didn’t want to pay the Maui Sting Rays $35k for the naming rights, and went with the Devil Rays instead
|
| 9:06 |
Guest: Is there a wY to see career WAR on fangraphs ?
|
| 9:06 |
Ben Clemens: There sure is. Do you want a leaderboard or just for an individual player?
|
| 9:06 |
Tony Wolfe: Arozarena ties it with a homer to center. 1-1 now in the bottom of four
|
| 9:06 |
David Laurila: The postseason’s most-fun player.
|
| 9:06 |
Bill: List /leaderboard please
|
| 9:07 |
Derek: Arozarena continues his ascent to greatest baseball player in history
|
| 9:07 |
Josh: pacing is infinitely more stressful/annoying for a third party observer
|
| 9:07 |
Ben Clemens: Up on the dropdown bars at hte top, under “Leaders”, there’s an option for career under both pitching and hitting
|
| 9:07 |
Ben Clemens: Here, for example, are the career leaders in batting:
|
| 9:07 |
Tony Wolfe: oh its awful. I’ve gained the sense to leave the room
|
| 9:07 |
Ben Clemens: If you’d prefer to go over a specific set of years, there’s that option as well
|
| 9:08 |
Bill: So I see it for leaders…but not all ?
|
| 9:08 |
Ben Clemens: Ah, they’re all available
|
| 9:08 |
Ben Clemens: What I’d do is select the years you want, let’s say 1969-1989
|
| 9:09 |
Ben Clemens: Submit that part under ‘multiple seasons’
|
| 9:09 |
Ben Clemens: and then if you want to look at them all at once, there’s a little ‘export data’ button that will turn it into a spreadsheet
|
| 9:09 |
Ben Clemens: Meanwhile…. Randy
|
| 9:09 |
Guest: I was just gonna ask how real Arozarena’s power boost was. I guess its pretty real!
|
| 9:09 |
Ben Clemens: He has bulked up noticeably, and he already had more raw power than his numbers showed in the minors
|
| 9:10 |
Ben Clemens: He’s a bat speed god, basically?
|
| 9:10 |
Derek: Next up for Trout to pass in fWAR is Bill Dahlen, who played for teams named the Orphans, Doves, and Superbas
|
| 9:11 |
Chamaco: Power boost from chicken, rice and push-ups during quarantine
|
| 9:11 |
sadtrombone: The technical term for what Arozarena is doing this offseason is “seeing the ball well.”
|
| 9:11 |
Sam: Seems like he just destroys pitches in the upper half, fun stuff!
|
| 9:11 |
Josh: ben, how good does it feel to write about a player in a positive manner, and then to watch them deliver?
|
| 9:11 |
Ben Clemens: It’s not the worst
|
| 9:11 |
Ben Clemens: On the other hand, remember when I wrote about Miguel Castro? Me neither until just now!
|
| 9:11 |
Ben Clemens: He did not actually deliver 🙁
|
| 9:12 |
DresTheAce: Whichever team gets more IP out of its SPs will win the series. What say you all?
|
| 9:12 |
David Laurila: This seems like it should be true, although I don’t know what recent postseason history suggests should happen.
|
| 9:13 |
Sad Yankees Fan: Glad Randy isn’t just a Yankees problem. What a postseason.
|
| 9:13 |
Kevinthecomic: How many players are allowed on post season roster? Same as usual or more due to covid?
|
| 9:13 |
Ben Clemens: 28 with no limit on the number of pitchers
|
| 9:14 |
Kevinthecomic: Then maybe SPs going deep not such a difference maker?
|
| 9:15 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m not convinced in this series. I think that if the Astros don’t win that battle, they’ll have a really hard time winning
|
| 9:15 |
Ben Clemens: Because their bullpen is half killer half filler
|
| 9:15 |
Ben Clemens: But the Rays are probably set up to not win the SP IP battle but still win the series a decent amount of the time
|
| 9:16 |
BLAB: Will Snell be in the fifth? (Third time through the lineup, and the top of the order has feasted.)
|
| 9:16 |
Ben Clemens: I think he will be, I would probably let him go too. First of seven games in seven days
|
| 9:16 |
Ben Clemens: I’d have a shoooort leash though
|
| 9:17 |
Chamaco: Has the three batter minimum rule been an issue at all this postseason or season?
|
| 9:17 |
David Laurila: Som people thought it was an issue when Darren O’Day had to face a lefty after allowing two baserunners. That said, O’Day’s numbers versus LHH are good, so it really wasn’t.
|
| 9:17 |
Ben Clemens: The White Sox IBB’ed a pitcher to get Carlos Rodon up to three batters faced so they could pull him
|
| 9:18 |
Ben Clemens: And the pitcher they brought in then walked in a run (the IBB loaded the bases)
|
| 9:18 |
Sam: Just to back up the Arozarena killing stuff up in the zone point: 8 for 16 with 6 bombs on high and away fastballs via Inside Edge
|
| 9:18 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah Arozarena has generally been a groundball hitter in the minors because his attack angle is pretty flat
|
| 9:18 |
Ben Clemens: But that means that he has an easier time getting to stuff up
|
| 9:19 |
Ben Clemens: And yeah he’s strong
|
| 9:19 |
Ben Clemens: So if you go high, you better not let him get the bat on the ball
|
| 9:20 |
Bang Bang: Reference the 3-batter rule mattering, Brooks Raley had to face Nelson Cruz in the WC round because he didn’t get the third out of the inning. Cruz doubled and drove in a run. Didn’t wind up mattering in the end, but it could have been big.
|
| 9:20 |
sadtrombone: So pretty much teams just need to throw low and hope he can’t adjust? That sounds too simple, like someone would have tried that.
|
| 9:20 |
Ben Clemens: Well he’s not a BAD hitter low
|
| 9:20 |
Ben Clemens: He just hits more grounders there
|
| 9:20 |
Ben Clemens: And a lot of pitchers aren’t really comfortable throwing low in the zone with their 4-seamers
|
| 9:21 |
Ben Clemens: Trout, for exmaple, was famously not much of a high-ball hitter for the first 5 years of his career
|
| 9:21 |
Ben Clemens: And yet, he was still Mike Trout
|
| 9:21 |
David Laurila: George Springer has 17 postseason home runs in 263 plate appearances. David Ortiz had 17 postseason home runs in 369 plate appearances
|
| 9:21 |
Ben Clemens: That’s an excellent statistic, I never would have guessed it
|
| 9:22 |
Derek: Yeah but Ortiz didn’t need a trash can!
|
| 9:23 |
Mike: High/low ball hitting reflects a certain pitching meta, too: early in Trout’s career, it was sinker/2 seamer time, recently its been high 4 seamer time, and now the Rays/Dodgers are going much heavier into 2 seam/sinkers again, as few guys are good at both at the same time.
|
| 9:24 |
Ben Clemens: This is a good way of putting it
|
| 9:24 |
Ben Clemens: Swings aren’t context-neutral
|
| 9:25 |
sadtrombone: Ortiz had that bonkers 2004 playoffs performance. That’s what everyone remembers him for.
|
| 9:25 |
Tony Wolfe: I think of 2013 more than 2004 when it comes to Ortiz playoff tears
|
| 9:25 |
Tony Wolfe: But I was also 9 years old for the first one and a freshman in college for the second, so
|
| 9:26 |
Ben Clemens: Tilt story time
|
| 9:26 |
Ben Clemens: I’m a Cardinals fan, I was a much bigger one in 2004
|
| 9:27 |
Ben Clemens: My dad and I drove the 12 hours from Virginia to St. Louis for game 4
|
| 9:27 |
sadtrombone: I mean, Ortiz *only* had three walk off home runs in a curse-breaking, drama-filled playoff runs
|
| 9:28 |
staz: Site question: The player ages listed… assume they are the players’ age-season? (cutoff=6/30/XX)
|
| 9:28 |
Ben Clemens: They are not, they’re the player’s actual age
|
| 9:28 |
Ben Clemens: Take a look at DJ LeMahieu, for exmaple
|
| 9:28 |
David Laurila: Jon Morosi just tweeted that Ronald Acuña Jr. thinks his 18-year-old brother, Luisangel Acuña — a Rangers prospect — has the potential to be better than he is.
|
| 9:30 |
Ben Clemens: Merry CRasmus to all!
|
| 9:30 |
Mike: My fav Ortiz fun fact is that the all-time WPA leaders for each round of the playoffs are different people, and none of them are the career total playoffs WPA leader: that person is David Ortiz
(the individual round career leaders are Gehrig, Pujols, and Justin Turner)
|
| 9:31 |
Ben Clemens: 1/10 judge scoring
|
| 9:31 |
BLAB: I went to St. Louis once, and there was this billboard between the airport and the stadium that read “Busch Stadium: a great place for everyone but Cubs fans.”
|
| 9:32 |
Ben Clemens: I could FEEL that going into center
|
| 9:32 |
Ben Clemens: I mean, it didn’t
|
| 9:32 |
Ben Clemens: But I thought it was goin to
|
| 9:33 |
Tony Wolfe: I’m also curious to know how that conversation played out leading up to that Acuna quote. If someone asked him directly whether his brother was as good as him, what’s he supposed to say?
|
| 9:33 |
Tony Wolfe: “lol no of course not are you serious”
|
| 9:34 |
Guest: 0-2 on two balls, lol
|
| 9:34 |
Ben Clemens: Makes me think of that anonymous scout who said Luis Robert was the current best player in the world
|
| 9:34 |
Ben Clemens: When he was still playing in Cuba
|
| 9:34 |
Tony Wolfe: Love that story
|
| 9:35 |
Ben Clemens: That’s some And 1 stuff right there
|
| 9:35 |
Ben Clemens: Wait til you see him play defense!
|
| 9:35 |
Mike: I understand Mike Zunino sometimes gets hits but I swear I’ve never seen it happen
|
| 9:35 |
Lzfreak: A single for Zunino!
|
| 9:35 |
Tony Wolfe: he should be the new inspiration for that weird tire commerical where the girl says “who says pitchers can’t play defense”
|
| 9:36 |
Sam: A single for Zunino! He showed me!
|
| 9:36 |
Derek: Hey a non-dinger run scored!
|
| 9:36 |
Kevinthecomic: Ray’s 1st lead!
|
| 9:37 |
Mike: I remember the Dodgers talking a couple days ago about how vs the Padres their plan from game 1 was to see as many pitches as possible, as even if Clevinger pitched, the Padres would have to rely on their bullpen the way they did at some point in the series, and the sooner they got relievers into the game and started getting them throwing pitches and getting to see them, the better their results would be as the series went on
It feels like the Rays should be attempting that kind of strategy given the Astros G4-5 starter situation, and that they’ve let Valdez be way too efficient.
|
| 9:37 |
staz: re: player ages: I should have been more specific: referring to age listed in Leaderboard tables (and data export). Thanks!
|
| 9:37 |
Ben Clemens: Oh totally misunderstood you. Then yes
|
| 9:37 |
Guest: What the heck was Correa doing?
|
| 9:37 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah Mike I see your point but it feels like that’s getting a little too cute
|
| 9:37 |
David Laurila: Zunino now has five singles this year. (and 10 extra-base hits.)
|
| 9:37 |
Ben Clemens: If you have hitters whose approach meshes with that, sure
|
| 9:37 |
Tony Wolfe: Just seems like a lapse of concentration thing
|
| 9:38 |
Ben Clemens: Otherwise, just hit
|
| 9:38 |
Wraith: A run that didn’t come from a dinger? I think I’d like to submit a bug report
|
| 9:38 |
Ben Clemens: He was just thinking SO HARD about all the people who don’t believe in him
|
| 9:38 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: As someone who never played above middle school and is skeptical of old men calling young players lazy, was that actually a careless play?
|
| 9:38 |
Ben Clemens: I would say careless but not lazy
|
| 9:40 |
sadtrombone: So, uh, Framber probably should not throw high heat to Arozarena here?
|
| 9:40 |
Lzfreak: They keep mentioning the Betts comp with Arozarena, but is he as fast as Betts actually?
|
| 9:40 |
Ben Clemens: Nah, Betts is not a good comp I don’t think
|
| 9:40 |
Ben Clemens: He’s not the kind of freakish natural athlete that Mookie is
|
| 9:41 |
Derek: “He’s not the kind of freakish natural athlete that Mookie is” – evidenced by the fact he is DH-ing rather than playing an 80-grade right field
|
| 9:41 |
Kevinthecomic: I love it when random guys win the WS MVP — Pat Borders, Steve Pearce…
|
| 9:41 |
David Laurila: Marty Barrett was going to be named WS MVP in 1986 before John McNamara opted not bring in Dave Stapleton as a defensive replacement at first base in the ninth inning.
|
| 9:41 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah exactly
|
| 9:41 |
Hugh Duffy: Mookie Betts sprint speed: 28.1Arozarena’s sprint speed is higher
|
| 9:42 |
Ben Clemens: That’s interesting, but I don’t think that’s really why a Mookie/Randy comparison fails
|
| 9:42 |
Derek: Does it make me a bad person to have felt a brief moment of joy when Correa f’ed that up?
|
| 9:42 |
David Laurila: Probably.
|
| 9:43 |
Mike: Sprint Speed and athleticism are not 1/1
|
| 9:43 |
Ben Clemens: The way I think about it is that if you picked a totally random sport they’d never played
|
| 9:43 |
Ben Clemens: and they each trained for two weeks
|
| 9:43 |
Ben Clemens: I’d take Mookie in pretty much anything?
|
| 9:43 |
sadtrombone: Betts has either a 70 or 80 grade hit tool. He gets to his power in a totally different way that Arozarena.
|
| 9:44 |
Ben Clemens: The reason for the comp is just height, right?
|
| 9:44 |
Ben Clemens: Arozarena is short but strong for an outfielder without being super bulky
|
| 9:45 |
Guest: Which player has the biggest disparity (either positive or negative) between his sprint speed and his baserunning skill?
|
| 9:46 |
Tony Wolfe: I know Goldschmidt’s baserunning was always viewed as shockingly good, but that was more because of his position than his foot speed. He was a comfortably above average runner according to Statcast until the last couple years
|
| 9:47 |
Ben Clemens: By UBR, which measures your skill on the bases alone, Albert Pujols has been worth 12 runs below average for his entire career
|
| 9:47 |
Ben Clemens: I think I could beat him in a footrace
|
| 9:47 |
Ben Clemens: He’s a FAR better baserunner than his speed would suggest
|
| 9:48 |
Ben Clemens: As a comp, Nelson Cruz is at about -30
|
| 9:48 |
Ben Clemens: In a much shorter career
|
| 9:48 |
Derek: There was an Effectively Wild segment where Sam had Ben try to guess players’ sprint speeds, and some of them are incredibly unintuitive, in both directions
|
| 9:48 |
sadtrombone: Albert Pujols, as far as I can tell, is at the moment the slowest runner in the history of baseball. I am not sure if his foot is even attached.
|
| 9:49 |
Mike: Miguel Cabrera is like Pujols speed these days, where teams play their shortstops shifted onto the outfield grass because they have so much time.
|
| 9:49 |
Ben Clemens: And Cabrera is at -37 UBR
|
| 9:49 |
Ben Clemens: It’s just wild to me that Pujols continues to be an okay baserunner
|
| 9:49 |
Ben Clemens: He must just have perfect reads
|
| 9:50 |
bosoxforlife: Have you seen Wilson Ramos run?
|
| 9:50 |
Mike: IDK, with the 7 consecutive games it seems like depth and the amount that key relievers are forced to pitch is likely to be the decisive factor in these series. Guys are not going to pitch effectively in 3 consecutive days or 4 out of 5 scenarios, and the sooner you start logging pitches on meaningful arms, the closer you get to the guys people don’t want pitching, and the Astros bullpen has a number of those guys
|
| 9:50 |
David Laurila: I think both teams need a few starters to go deep into games.
|
| 9:50 |
Ben Clemens: Another strong contender
|
| 9:51 |
Mike: There is a clip of Pujols tagging from 1st to 2nd on a flyout to Yasiel Puig
|
| 9:51 |
Ben Clemens: This is just robbery
|
| 9:51 |
Tony Wolfe: that is outstanding
|
| 9:52 |
Derek: Francisco Lindor was the 6th-least valuable baserunner this year!
|
| 9:54 |
sadtrombone: Yeah, I feel like guys like Lindor are probably the more likely candidates. The fast guys who for some reason cannot run the bases properly. I think Altuve may fit in that category? Put up a lot of SBs, but somehow just isn’t good at the rest of it.
|
| 9:54 |
Ben Clemens: Altuve is an excellent example
|
| 9:54 |
Ben Clemens: 15 runs above average in his career on stolen bases
|
| 9:54 |
Ben Clemens: 2 above average in other baserunning
|
| 9:55 |
Lzfreak: Kiermaier seems like he should steal more bases given his speed. Not sure if that counts
|
| 9:56 |
Mike: theres plenty of fast guys who don’t steal because their teams don’t want them to steal
And this game has demonstrated why, actually.
|
| 9:56 |
Ben Clemens: Fast and being a good base stealer are not the same, that’s for sure
|
| 9:58 |
David Laurila: While it’s obvious that two-run homers are better than one-run singles, is more of the latter — and less of the former — aesthetically preferable going forward this postseason? Is this something fans would like to see?
|
| 9:58 |
Ben Clemens: I think so, David
|
| 9:59 |
Ben Clemens: If you specify that a game will finish 5-4
|
| 9:59 |
Ben Clemens: I’d rather have 8 runs off of base hits and 1 off of a dinger than vice versa
|
| 9:59 |
Derek: Re David’s question: for me, yes!
|
| 10:00 |
Sam: This is very off topic so I apologize, but is there any one or two defensive stats that should be looked at with the most weight?
|
| 10:00 |
Ben Clemens: This is silly but, the best stat to look at is where teams play a player
|
| 10:00 |
Ben Clemens: Failing that, I really like Statcast’s Outs Above Average
|
| 10:00 |
Ben Clemens: Which you can find here:
|
| 10:01 |
Tony Wolfe: OAA is my answer, with my one hang-up being that the technology is still so new
|
| 10:01 |
bosoxforlife: David. At age 78 I have watched the game transform and, while I still love the game, it was better with more hits, fewer strikeouts and a lot of hit and run plays. That play has disappeared with theswing and miss.
|
| 10:02 |
Kevinthecomic: I gotta chat with Laurila whenever u guys are allowed to have meet ups again so we can swap old timey Red Sox and Blue Jay’s stories
|
| 10:02 |
David Laurila: Happy to talk about the Jeff Stone game any time!
|
| 10:02 |
Guest: That seems like a dubious metric Ben; almost like judging a hitter based on where a manager puts him in the lineup, even though we know managers don’t construct lineups optimally.
|
| 10:02 |
Ben Clemens: Eh, it’s not really the same at all
|
| 10:03 |
Ben Clemens: You can bat Albert Pujols fifth even when he can’t hit that well anymore
|
| 10:03 |
Ben Clemens: You can’t play him at short
|
| 10:03 |
Mike: I think you’re going to get the one-run singles if for no other reason than that 2 of the 3 remaining series are being played in a Costco warehouse. Statcast barreled balls in the Dodgers/padres series went like 4 for 23 with 3 dingers and a double.
|
| 10:03 |
Lzfreak: You can play Jeter at short though
|
| 10:04 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s not foolproof. But it’s a really good first cut
|
| 10:04 |
Guest: Yeah, but you can still play Moustakas at second, or Harper in CF…
|
| 10:04 |
Ben Clemens: Moustakas looks fine at second!
|
| 10:04 |
Ben Clemens: Which is admittedly insane
|
| 10:05 |
Tony Wolfe: The tech used for OAA may have actually been what led the Reds to believe they could play him there
|
| 10:05 |
Tony Wolfe: If you looked at where he graded best in 2019 with the Brewers, it was when he was shifted into the second base area
|
| 10:05 |
Tony Wolfe: It wasn’t an enormous sample, but certainly more encouraging than you would have expected
|
| 10:06 |
Derek: Is Moustakas an actual second baseman or just a shift-enabled second baseman?
|
| 10:06 |
Tony Wolfe: if they don’t implement rules restricting the shift, does it matter?
|
| 10:06 |
sadtrombone: Who says you can’t play Pujols at shortstop? It’s a free country. Manager can do whatever he likes until he gets fired.
|
| 10:07 |
Ben Clemens: Sure, and when teams start playing guys who are 40 runs below average or whatever, then I take back my metric
|
| 10:07 |
staz: Gotta pull Framber here
|
| 10:07 |
Ben Clemens: It’s fun watching Framber pitch
|
| 10:07 |
Ben Clemens: But I’d probably try to get him here
|
| 10:07 |
Ben Clemens: I guess they can’t, though!
|
| 10:08 |
Kevinthecomic: Smells like 1 batter too many
|
| 10:09 |
Ben Clemens: I’m curious what the thinking was in not having someone in the bullpen hot
|
| 10:09 |
David Laurila: This game is enjoyable, but man, think how much better it would be with fans, and not in a neutral ballpark.
|
| 10:09 |
Ben Clemens: SO much better
|
| 10:10 |
Mike: I mean the other side of the coin is this game would have been played in Tampa Bay
|
| 10:10 |
bosoxforlife: Those hooks still had some bite.
|
| 10:11 |
Guest: Now going from Dodger Stadium to the Costco warehouse is a problem
|
| 10:11 |
Mike: The thing that bothers me about the neutral sites is that teams are often built to leverage their home parks and even if the visiting park goes against them, they get a largely neutral result over a series
if your team is built in a way that’s advantageous or disadvantageous to your neutral site park, you’re playing all the games in it and just losing out.
|
| 10:11 |
Lzfreak: Who is the worst fielder in mlb right now who doesn’t generally DH?
|
| 10:11 |
Tony Wolfe: well it depends what range of time you care about
|
| 10:12 |
Tony Wolfe: because the worst defender in baseball this year by DRS was….
|
| 10:12 |
Sam: Sometimes I could get away with not noticing it in the regular season. But I really realized it on the back to back homers from Machado and Tatis in the WC, that would have been so much more fun with fans (still amazing though)
|
| 10:13 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah, totally agree
|
| 10:14 |
Guest: I hate the neutral park thing, but Petco is objectively better than Tropicana so *shurg*
|
| 10:14 |
David Laurila: Tropicana is probably my least favorite park, and Petco is on my short list of best parks, so you make a good point.
|
| 10:15 |
Also Ben: I love how well weird bullpen angles seem to work
|
| 10:17 |
Mike: This game and the NBA Finals game started at the exact same time. The NBA game is over and this game is in the 7th inning.
|
| 10:17 |
Guest: Over the last 3 years, DRS really hates Devers and Bogaerts; UZR hates Castellanos and Bell.
|
| 10:17 |
David Laurila: Devers has been wildly inconsistent. Makes some really good plays, but is prone to careless errors. One would think he’ll become more consistent as ages. Time will tell.
|
| 10:18 |
Derek: Given Tampa’s lineup today, it seems weird that Blake Taylor (a lefty) is apparently the next one up for the Astros, no?
|
| 10:18 |
Ben Clemens: Given that the entire TB bench is lefties, I don’t really know what you’re supposed to do instead
|
| 10:19 |
Ben Clemens: If they platoon Zunino with Perez, it’s only Arozarena, Adames, and perhaps Margot as righty/righty matchups
|
| 10:20 |
Ben Clemens: And it’s not like they’re downgrading in hitter quality on many of those
|
| 10:20 |
Ben Clemens: They get Meadows, Choi, and Wendle
|
| 10:20 |
Derek: That’s true, but at least bringing a righty in now might create a better opportunity later for Taylor, rather. Though I guess it’s just a matter of do you want your righties to have platoon advantage or Taylor. So yeah, never mind. I guess Taylor here is fine!
|
| 10:20 |
Ben Clemens: Tampa is just really rough on pitchers with big platoon splits
|
| 10:20 |
Ben Clemens: I actually think Valdez is a good option given that, b/c sinkers and 12/6 curves aren’t all that weak to opposite-handed batters
|
| 10:21 |
David Laurila: The Rays, per Jayson Stark on Twitter: Leading after 6 innings, 32-1; leading after 7 innings, 29-0; leading after 8 innings,36-0.
|
| 10:21 |
Ben Clemens: And he pitched incredibly well
|
| 10:22 |
Guest: Miguel Andujar is never getting back to 3B, either. Man, he was bad. He was the worst. But now I think it’s Torres.
|
| 10:22 |
Guest: It’s hard because most of the guys who have really, really bad numbers on defense are people who have been moved down the defensive spectrum or are out of the game. Colin Moran is no longer at 3B. Scott Kingery, hopefully, is no longer at SS. Matt Kemp’s career is likely over. One guy who is surprisingly bad is Gleyber Torres.
|
| 10:22 |
Ben Clemens: Those are out of order because I’m bad at clicking
|
| 10:22 |
Ben Clemens: But those are great examples
|
| 10:23 |
Derek: So of course the one left-on-left Taylor gets hits a double!
|
| 10:24 |
Mike: Valdez was incredible, and the Astros still look like they’re going to burn 3 innings worth of their relievers in a game they’ll still probably lose, and anyone who pitches today is not gonna pitch in both G2 and G3. So do you use one of your best guys and know you will miss them for a future game, to keep it close, or go with someone worse and hope the lead doesn’t get wider?
|
| 10:24 |
Ben Clemens: I think you have to go good reliever here
|
| 10:24 |
sadtrombone: To be fair, the game is really close. “Probably” losing is a bit unfair to the Astros chances.
|
| 10:24 |
Mike: I think you do, too, fwiw, but it really illustrates the costs down the road, you have a finite number of appearances from your good relievers in this series, and it’s less than the series length.
|
| 10:25 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: A-Rod rejoices.
|
| 10:25 |
sadtrombone: Although personally I’d love for them to burn all their good relievers now and lose.
|
| 10:25 |
Chamaco: Don’t miss A-Rod calling for a bunt right now
|
| 10:25 |
Mike: The Rays are 78.9% favorites to win the game by win probability right now; “probably” adequately describes their chances.
|
| 10:25 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I don’t think that means you can punt though
|
| 10:27 |
A-ROD: ThEy NeEd An OdD lEaD!!!
|
| 10:27 |
Ben Clemens: Pretty sure you mean they need an even lead, right?
|
| 10:28 |
Ben Clemens: According to A-Rod — a 14-time All-Star and three-team MVP who played 22 seasons in the league — an even lead is always better than an odd lead. “You always want even leads versus odd leads. Why? The solo home run doesn’t tie it, and the grand slam does not beat you,” Rodriguez said during the game.
|
| 10:28 |
Guest: By decrying the rising three true outcomes and the lack of ball being put in play, are we no different from cranky “old man yells at cloud” types, or are we lamenting the watering down of a critical, objectively important aesthetic of baseball? Wow, that phrasing is pretentious. I say this because I’m kinda getting sick of all the strikeouts.
|
| 10:28 |
Ben Clemens: Little bit of both
|
| 10:29 |
Ben Clemens: So long as you’re self-critical about it I think you’re fine
|
| 10:30 |
Guest: So tonight was Lebron’s title with the third different team in his career; any idea how many MLB players have won titles with three different teams?
|
| 10:31 |
Mike: Old-man-yells-at-cloud thought contact hitting, etc, were more effective ways to win. Those people were wrong.
Asking if we like the aesthetic and think the rules should be changed so that that kind of baseball IS a better way to win is a separate question.
One is resistant to or denying available information and optimization, the other is asking whether we should change things so that optimized behavior changes.
|
| 10:32 |
Derek: Honestly all of A-Rod’s nonsense we all have to listen to is worth it for the existence of the Even Runs Theorem
|
| 10:36 |
Ben Clemens: Wow good find!
|
| 10:36 |
David Laurila: Randy Arozarena is from La Habana. Many Cuban players have hailed from there, including Minnie Minoso, who belongs in the Hall of Fame.
|
| 10:37 |
Bb: Re: three true outcomes, games are 40% longer than when I was a kid, with fewer balls in play. Isn’t that close to being objectively bad?
|
| 10:38 |
Tony Wolfe: lol that link
|
| 10:38 |
Tony Wolfe: being a yankees fan must be a bummer
|
| 10:39 |
Mike: In our own lifetimes, John Lackey won his 3 rings with 3 different teams.
|
| 10:39 |
Jordan: Yogi Berra. One ring for each finger. Eat your heart out Tom Brady.
|
| 10:39 |
Chamaco: Does Lowe always struggle with the high fastball or just this year in the playoffs?
|
| 10:40 |
Ben Clemens: This is a lazy way of looking at it
|
| 10:40 |
Ben Clemens: But slugging percentage per ball in play by zone:
|
| 10:41 |
Mike: Most baseball players struggle with 98 at the top of the strike zone when the guy has any secondary pitch that might look remotely similar, really.
|
| 10:41 |
David Laurila: One thing fitting the script tonight is Astros batters striking out just three times thus far. They had the lowest K rate in MLB this year.
|
| 10:41 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah I think Lowe is a fine high ball hitter. No one in the world is a good Enoli Paredes hitter
|
| 10:41 |
Ben Clemens: When he’s on
|
| 10:44 |
Ben Clemens: Tony and David, I’m curious what you think about batters who have never faced pitchers before
|
| 10:44 |
Ben Clemens: Does it matter? Would you consider it as a manager?
|
| 10:46 |
David Laurila: When Aaron Loup was in high-A, he was told to try dropping down to the side because a conventional delivery wasn’t getting it done. He threw a ton of pitches in the bullpen during a game — first time throwing sidearm — and late in that same game he was brought in to pitch.
|
| 10:47 |
Ben Clemens: Let me also interject that goodness gracious, saying Loup is better against righties than lefties is WILDLY misleading
|
| 10:47 |
Ben Clemens: That was for batting average, for 2020 only
|
| 10:47 |
Tony Wolfe: I don’t think it would give me pause? I might make sure he doesn’t have terrible splits overall against arms who match the style of the guy on the mound, but for the most part I don’t think it would cross my mind
|
| 10:47 |
Jordan: I think there’s a lot to be said for the pitcher advantage first time facing a hitter. Especially with an unorthodox arm slot and an above average secondary pitch
|
| 10:47 |
Ben Clemens: Loup is MUCH worse against righties than lefties for his career
|
| 10:48 |
Ben Clemens: By wOBA, he’s 16% worse against righties than lefties
|
| 10:48 |
Tony Wolfe: Yeah there are certain circumstances where I might consider it more but I don’t think they’d come up much
|
| 10:48 |
David Laurila: I don’t think not having faced a pitcher is nearly as important as the relative strengths and weaknesses.
|
| 10:48 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah David I agree with the way you phrased it exactly
|
| 10:48 |
Ben Clemens: If a guy is a good hitter against sidearmers, say
|
| 10:49 |
TKDC: Eric Hinske played in the WS three straight years, for three teams, Red Sox, Rays, Yankees (07-09)
|
| 10:49 |
Ben Clemens: (not sure if that’s actually a hting, but let’s say it is)
|
| 10:49 |
Lzfreak: Is Nick Anderson available?
|
| 10:49 |
Mike: It seems to me that the ‘has never faced’ thing only really matters for pitchers who have deceptive deliveries, especially if it’s not deceptive in a common-ish way (ie a weird armslot but one you see in other players, etc)
|
| 10:50 |
Ben Clemens: I’d love to hear about various batters’ first time facing Johnny Cueto
|
| 10:51 |
Derek: Maybe every time facing Johnny Cueto feels like the first time
|
| 10:52 |
Guest: We all agree facing the same batter multiple times in the same game leads to diminishing returns. How far does that extend? Multiple days in a row?
|
| 10:52 |
Ben Clemens: Ben Lindbergh wrote about this
|
| 10:52 |
Ben Clemens: let me see if I can find it
|
| 10:53 |
David Laurila: I was at PNC for the Cueto-Cueto chant playoff game. The place was bedlam all night. Sucks that PNC is mostly empty a great majority of the time these days.
|
| 10:53 |
Ben Clemens: That was my pick for my favorite game to watch of the last 10 years when we picked YouTube clips earlier this year
|
| 10:53 |
Tony Wolfe: woah, diego castillo gets out of the bases loaded jam with a double play
|
| 10:54 |
Ben Clemens: Those chants were amazing
|
| 10:54 |
Tony Wolfe: that game will haunt me until I am dead
|
| 10:54 |
Derek: Well Castillo’s appearance went juuuuust a bit more smoothly than Loup’s!
|
| 10:54 |
4-3!: Who says baseball isn’t fun?
|
| 10:54 |
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Send Castillo back out for the 9th then?
|
| 10:54 |
Tony Wolfe: I would imagine Castillo gets the ninth, yeah
|
| 10:54 |
David Laurila: In all likelihood, that will be the biggest play of the game.
|
| 10:55 |
Mike: At least Castillo actually has a high ground ball rate, the other day when Anderson did that with his 27% GB rate was really hilarious
|
| 10:55 |
Ben Clemens: Yeah do you know how hard it is to be ON TOP of an Anderson fastball?
|
| 10:56 |
David Laurila: I remember being in the PNC press box wishing I was in the stands with a beer to really and truly feel the atmosphere.
|
| 10:56 |
Ben Clemens: Being at a really great playoff game, whether home team win or home team loss, is a truly great experience
|
| 10:56 |
Ben Clemens: It’s hard to relay to people who have not been there
|
| 10:56 |
BLAB: I loved PNC park, and Petco. I’m glad you mentioned both, David.
|
| 10:57 |
Ben Clemens: Something about the entirety of the audience caring so much really resonates
|
| 10:57 |
Mike: I think the multiple days thing is an interesting question because while Ben wrote about it, we’ve never had a situation like this one, with 7 consecutive games vs the same team and no off-days, so you’ll likely see repeat performances to degrees that are normally impossible in baseball.
|
| 10:57 |
Tony Wolfe: I have never been to a playoff baseball game, both because of money and because the team I always cheered for pretty much never goes
|
| 10:57 |
Lzfreak: As a Twins fan who has attended 5 playoff games against the Yankees in 3 different stadiums in 2 different cities across 4 different seasons
|
| 10:57 |
Lzfreak: It’s not always great
|
| 10:58 |
Sam: Massive play, -34.7 win probability
|
| 10:58 |
Ben Clemens: And a whopping 5.8 leverage index
|
| 10:58 |
Ben Clemens: Which is, uh, hard to think about
|
| 10:58 |
bosoxforlife: I will vouch for that. I was lucky enough to be at Game 6 in 1967. Red Sox- 8 Cardinals- 4. I still have every photo.
|
| 10:59 |
David Laurila: Was ’67 Game 6 Gary Waslewski’s start?
|
| 10:59 |
Ben Clemens: Nike might sue
|
| 10:59 |
Ben Clemens: For copyright infringement
|
| 11:00 |
Rally Monkey: Every home game at Angel Stadium during the 2002 World Series was unbelievable
|
| 11:00 |
Ben Clemens: ThunderStix series
|
| 11:00 |
Ben Clemens: I hated those things watching at home!
|
| 11:00 |
Jordan: Was at the 2008 ALCS game 7 Red Sox vs. Rays. Garza throws the gem. Rookie David Price with the save. One of the most memorable moments of my life
|
| 11:00 |
Kevinthecomic: I was at ’92 ALCS game 6 when Blue Jays eliminated A’s to go to their 1st WS — 1st inning Rickey Henderson drops a lazy fly ball for an error — the rest of the night was RICKEY RICKEY RICKEY
|
| 11:00 |
Sam: I was that ALDS game between the Yankees and Indians in 17 where the only run was a Greg Bird HR off of Andrew Miller. An experience that’s truly hard to beat.
|
| 11:00 |
Ben Clemens: What I love about playoff baseball is that all of you remember these games so well
|
| 11:00 |
Ben Clemens: It just sticks
|
| 11:01 |
Ben Clemens: I was at the Nats/Cards comeback game in 2012, in DC
|
| 11:01 |
Ben Clemens: I remember, very vividly, sneaking my David Freese jersey off and back into my backpack (I took the train down from NYC after work) in the 9th
|
| 11:01 |
Dodger Fan: I’ll never forget 2017 WS game 1. Ever.
|
| 11:01 |
TKDC: The only playoff game I’ve ever been to was the Jayson Werth walk off homer game and it was awesome even though I don’t even like the Nats.
|
| 11:02 |
Mike: Ive only seen my team play 4 games live, ever, and so I have the distinct pleasure of being able to say that I’ve seen Clayton Kershaw pitch and it was, in some ways, the worst game of his career.
|
| 11:02 |
Ben Clemens: Haha well that last one is u nlucky!
|
| 11:02 |
bosoxforlife: Yes. He is from Meriden, CT which is the next town over.
|
| 11:02 |
David Laurila: We might be the only people in this chat who have heard of Waslewski, let alone know that he made a surprise start in the World Series.
|
| 11:02 |
Bat: No one wants to talk about the Rays-Astros currently ongoing? Only talk about past playoff games?
|
| 11:02 |
Ben Clemens: I think if a runner gets in scoring position or for the top of the 9th, that will come up again
|
| 11:02 |
Ben Clemens: These current AB’s are not particularly high leverage
|
| 11:03 |
Dodger Fan: Mike, which NLCS game was this?
|
| 11:03 |
Dodger Fan: @Bat (ha) none of us are at that game!
|
| 11:03 |
Steve Bartman: I have a pretty vivid memory of the one Cubs playoff game I attended.
|
| 11:04 |
Ben Clemens: I think pitching Raley here makes sense for the Astros
|
| 11:04 |
Ben Clemens: If a runner gets in scoring position I wouldn’t be surprised if they yank him quickly
|
| 11:04 |
David Laurila: Ben is right. I’m watching every pitch, but there is only so much to say. “Should he bunt?!”
|
| 11:05 |
Mike: the only Kershaw game I saw was not a playoff game, but rather a regular season start against a 100 loss Marlins team when, for the only time in his career, Kershaw walked 6 AAA baseball players in a single game!
|
| 11:05 |
Lzfreak: Has there ever been a World Series without a stolen base? If that happened would Taco Bell go out of business?
|
| 11:05 |
David Laurila: This is a question that something needs to research and answer.
|
| 11:06 |
bosoxforlife: There is a time to follow the game and a time to remember why we love this game so much.
|
| 11:06 |
Ben Clemens: One of my favorite things about baseball is the institutional memory, as it were
|
| 11:06 |
Fangraph’s Lurker: it’s all fun and games until a solo homer turns this into a 14 inning nightmare
|
| 11:06 |
David Laurila: That wouldn’t be a nightmare. It would be a classic.
|
| 11:07 |
Derek: Whoa. Margot mashed that foul ball
|
| 11:07 |
Ben Clemens: I have spent hours upon hours talking to my wife’s great-uncle about the White Sox games he’s been to
|
| 11:07 |
Ben Clemens: And I honestly enjoy it quite a lot
|
| 11:07 |
Bat: Has MLB considered abandoning this 3 batter minimum rule in the POs? Or is the thought process that the PO game rules must be (as close as possibly) identical to the regular season?
|
| 11:07 |
Ben Clemens: They haven’t said anything publicly but I think it was actually meant for the playoffs
|
| 11:07 |
GraphFans: I saw Brooks Raley pitch in the KBO on a trip to South Korea last summer. Lotte Giants against the LG Twins. Pretty cool to see him in MLB so soon afterwards.
|
| 11:08 |
Ben Clemens: How many foul balls can Margot hit
|
| 11:08 |
Manuel Margot: My average exit velo would be a lot higher if they counted my foul balls
|
| 11:09 |
Kevinthecomic: Margot seems to be seeing the ball well
|
| 11:09 |
Ben Clemens: Juuuuuust short of well
|
| 11:09 |
MM: Manny’s late-season and playoffs should bump him up in drafts, even as a platoon guy. Yay or nay?
|
| 11:09 |
Ben Clemens: Eh I’d wait to see the Rays’ offseason before thinking about it too much
|
| 11:09 |
Mike: I am a Dodger fan which is my way of saying that it feels like every playoff series since the 2017 NLCS has been more stress and worry and sometimes relief than anything, like, positive
|
| 11:09 |
Ben Clemens: Treat it like any other 50 pa stretch
|
| 11:10 |
Guest: In all seriousness, I wonder if exit velo on foul balls could tell us anything
|
| 11:10 |
Ben Clemens: I don’t really think so, honestly. I’ve messed around iwth this
|
| 11:10 |
Ben Clemens: I think the problem is that they are necessarily mishits
|
| 11:10 |
Ben Clemens: In large part
|
| 11:10 |
Tony Wolfe: damn. what an AB
|
| 11:12 |
Ben Clemens: Brooks Raley’s face right now is stressing me out
|
| 11:14 |
Dodger Fan: What the hell is Dusty Baker doing with that mask?
|
| 11:15 |
David Laurila: If there are no strikeouts in the bottom of the ninth, and the Rays hang on, the winning team will have fanned 13 times, the losing team four times.
|
| 11:15 |
Tony Wolfe: Welp. Three more outs and the Rays can take Game 1
|
| 11:15 |
Derek: I like him avoiding the (deserved) criticism people get for only wearing the mask over the mouth without covering the nose by only covering his nose instead
|
| 11:15 |
bosoxforlife: Where was Raley playing between 2014 and 2019?
|
| 11:15 |
David Laurila: In the KBO.
|
| 11:16 |
Mike: insert notable commentary about the Rays mimicking the Dodgers in focusing on a 2-seam oriented staff, generating higher GB rates (Dodgers lowest 4 seam FB rate, highest sinker rate, Rays 2nd lowest 4 seam, 2nd highest sinker).
Wanna make contact? Lets make the contact worse.
|
| 11:16 |
Ben Clemens: Well until Nick Anderson comes in
|
| 11:16 |
Ben Clemens: But yes excellent point
|
| 11:17 |
Bat: Apologies but I started watching this TB-Hou game late due to work obligations – are any fans permitted in this round?
|
| 11:17 |
Ben Clemens: I’m not sure about the NLCS, to be honest. In the ALCS, no fans will be allowed.
|
| 11:18 |
Dodger Fan: I believe there will be fans at NLCS and WS games.
|
| 11:18 |
Kevinthecomic: ‘Stros dont have a better hitter than Diaz here?
|
| 11:19 |
Ben Clemens: I guess the thinking is you’re going to PH for Maldonado
|
| 11:19 |
Ben Clemens: So if Reddick is taking that one, it’s Abraham Toro or Aledmys?
|
| 11:21 |
Ben Clemens: Honestly, the fact that Diaz got that much on the ball is outrageous
|
| 11:21 |
Tony Wolfe: One of the more subtly amazing things about watching baseball for me is when you see a hitter look like he barely got a piece of the ball with like, the very end of his bat, and the ball still travels like 300 feet
|
| 11:21 |
Mike: High Leverage Hitter Josh Reddick.
|
| 11:22 |
Ben Clemens: I still believe that this split (if you don’t know, Reddick is one of the worst “clutch” hitters as measured by the ratio btw. hi-lev and lo-lev PA’s)
|
| 11:22 |
Ben Clemens: is due to the fact that historically, he would just only get lefties in high-leverage spots
|
| 11:22 |
Ben Clemens: So it was a stealth platoon split
|
| 11:22 |
Dodger Fan: I am not allowed to like Josh Reddick
|
| 11:23 |
TKDC: Does Castillo have an advantage because of the city they are playing in?
|
| 11:23 |
Bat: Well, Reddick was clutch there!
|
| 11:23 |
Ben Clemens: San Diego Castillo
|
| 11:24 |
Dodger Fan: Castillo’s pitches are very aesthetically pleasing
|
| 11:24 |
Ben Clemens: The camera angle helps too
|
| 11:24 |
Ben Clemens: I find that from this offset angle, righty sinkers are awesome-looking
|
| 11:24 |
Derek: Did I miss them go over substitutions? Who is at 3rd for TB right now?
|
| 11:25 |
Tony Wolfe: Brosseau with the fast pitch softball delivery to Castillo
|
| 11:25 |
David Laurila: PFPs are important.
|
| 11:26 |
Mike: I miss the Dodgers changing 6 guys positions twice a game, but man did the postseason broadcasts struggle with that.
|
| 11:26 |
Ben Clemens: The game where Travis d’Arnaud played the field is one of my favorites
|
| 11:26 |
Kevinthecomic: What do we know about Straw as a baserunner?
|
| 11:26 |
David Laurila: That he can fly.
|
| 11:27 |
David Laurila: This is good drama.
|
| 11:27 |
Ben Clemens: Look at this
|
| 11:27 |
Ben Clemens: After the game
|
| 11:27 |
Ben Clemens: You’ll like it
|
| 11:27 |
Ben Clemens: I love that Straw is in scoring position here
|
| 11:29 |
Ben Clemens: What a great game
|
| 11:29 |
Tony Wolfe: Rays win, 2-1
|
| 11:29 |
Tony Wolfe: Thanks for hanging out, everybody!
|
| 11:29 |
Ben Clemens: I’ll leave you with this statline, by notable Ray Travis d’Arnaud
|
| 11:29 |
Ben Clemens: Travis d’Arnaud 3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B
|
| 11:30 |
Sam: Awesome stuff. Thanks for doing this guys, always a pleasure
|
| 11:30 |
Ben Clemens: Have a great night, everyone, and thanks for hanging out with us
|
| 11:30 |
Jordan: The stable strikes again! Rays up baby!
|
| 11:30 |
Bat: Exciting end of Game 1!
|
| 11:31 |
Derek: Thanks for chatting guys! (and for working on a weekend)
|
| 11:31 |
Lzfreak: Thanks for the chat!
|
| 11:31 |
Kevinthecomic: Good game — thanks 4 the chat fellas!
|
| 11:31 |
bosoxforlife: Thank you gentlemen for another most enjoyable evening at Fangraphs.
|
| 11:31 |
Dodger Fan: Love these chats
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
