FanGraphs 2026 Wild Card Chat
It's baseball time!
I'm very excited for today. These 4-game blocks are great as a way to hype up the start of the playoffs
Gotta get used to the whole new chat interface; I'm so used to Jotcast
I imagine they'll be careful with the situations they bring him in.
when are the steamer 2027 projections out…
Dunno, gotta ask Jared on that one. Meg, if you're still lurking around, are you aware?
I'd certainly want to. He seems to really want to go back to normal quickly, and it feels like the Phillies are trying to push back on that
And I'm sorry, but he's not as threatening as Max Scherzer so it's not as scary to tell him no
I get why the Yankees are giving him a shot. Obviously incredibly high vol here, but I can see why. Without Judge, this is not a fun lineup against a bunch of lefty pitchers.
Scherzer's blue eye sees the day you die.
They say baseball is the American pastime, but ball games have been played in the Americas for more than 3,500 years. Today, like the mythical Maya heroes Hunahpu and Xbalanque, we stand on the precipice of Xibalba, the Underworld, the Place of Fright, and present ourselves for divine judgment.
The victors will receive immortality. The defeated will envy the dead.
Hi, I’m Matt Vasgersian for NBC Sports, alongside C.J. Nitkowski, John Kruk and Joey Votto, and it is our pleasure to welcome you to the concrete Xibalba of unincorporated Cobb County, Georgia, for the National League Wild Card Series.
Other pitchers have survived this way. It wouldn't be the craziest thing ever if Corbin hung on
I have some theories about why the other sports don't get the same kind of boost, though not a strong one about baseball specifically.
Basketball doesn't get a boost because be honest, have you ever watched a first round NBA playoff game? There are too many teams in the playoffs, the games don't get good for a month
Football doesn't get a boost because interest is already very high. There are always playoff implications in the last game of the year and it flows smoothly into the playoffs with the same interest. Whereas in baseball, many teams are just kinda getting ready for October for the last two weeks to one month tahnks to how long the season is
It's true, I wouldn't mind two sets of two instead of four sets of one. But I do love having all four games on the same day.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-whos-maybe-going-to-win-th…
I've got Tampa Bay over Milwaukee. A shocking number of my colleagues (6) agree with you though
Afternoon Bau-Bau chick chicka-chicka!
Honestly…I'm not sure. Anything that can't last forever won't. If I knew the answer, I'd have figured out the Brewers, and I haven't figured out the Brewers!
"The Philadelphia Phillies have to attack right away" is the kind of meaningless, non-falsifiable thing I'd expect to open a baseball series
I haven't actually! Mainly because I had to update everything Sunday night *and* write a piece, so I didn't do any extra stuff. The current ZiPS probs are him NOT being in the games
I hope that if the Phillies don't score in teh first but win the game, we'll get a lengthy mea culpa
TV start time, but they certainly didn't make it obvious if you didn't look closely
I'm marveling at the thinness of the needle the Phillies had to thread to 1) make the playoffs while 2) fielding a lineup with Derek Hill hitting fifth in Game 1
The whole Phillies bench except Sosa is guys I wouldn't be quite sure were still in baseball if you demanded an answer at gunpoint
I think the most damning thing about this roster is they've carried two backup catchers who can't hit for most of the year and their triple-A depth is such that yeah I don't know if it's hurt them that much
Since it's four straight games, I have leftovers from last night's takeout. October is a time for simple food that I don't have to cook, basically 🙂
Quick start
Trea Turner was very aggressive early. Three straight swings for a strikeout. I assume that will earn him plenty of praise from the announcers.
Oh man, Votto's into it too! Love it
That's about the most gentle way you can push back on your colleague. "Well, it's Philly's job to be aggressive by taking bad pitches". It's true!
I wonder if the Phillies will ever get the notion that maybe you don't want Turner getting the most or second-most PAs in every game.
I thought the season a couple years ago was a blip. but this has been a BLUMP
Feels weird to see Luke Williams on a playoff roster, though at least he's faster
I wish Rowdy Tellez were better, but he LOOKS like a guy who can hit, but isn't actually one
This is going to sound weird because the game has changed so much, but I looked for players with similar K%+'s, so era-adjusted strikeout rates, and I have some comps for you. Jack Clark. Bob Allison. Troy Glaus. Harmon Killebrew. Ralph Kiner.But when you combine how many strikeouts the league just has overall now and the fact that he's a walks-whiffs-homers guy, the raw numbers get crazy.
I think there's too much Other Stuff to worry about that
Yeah I'm with Dan. Like, they're going to be arguing about billions of dollars, and re-seeding is not really a monetary edge for anyone. Who will push for it?
If you think of the CBA negotiations as a way to make baseball better, you'll get misled. Because while in many cases that does happen, it's an adversarial bargaining for money between two parties.
What Ben said a million times
Yeah, that's the problem. It's something that's just better, but it doesn't matter for either of the parties
I think it's probably still like 11. Because having a full bullpen is pretty important. I think you'll see like 2 starters and even more bullpen before 3 starters and not much bullpen.
yeah. Great one. Loving Votto so far.
White Sox Astros?
Hot take: Yankees Red Sox
Not because it's not inherently interesting, because of the 'narrative'
I don't think we're close to solving pitcher usage and roster construction for a best-of-three series. Everyone's too afraid to buck roster norms because if you lose you look like an idiot
I'm kinda pumped for the White Sox honestly. I want to see 20k, 5hr games and whatnot
Yeah you can get from Temple's campus in North Philly to CBP in like 15 minutes on the subway, whereas Truist is…OK, for people in Marietta and Cumberland, there's this thing called a "subway"…
Wow nice
That's a new low.
We could probably add a custom delay to chat. Might have that ready for later today.
The counter to this would be that the 17th position player is probably not adding much either. But teams seem to carry more long relievers than they need, I think I agree.
I used to get angrier. I've moved beyond thinking of the playoffs as tryign to determine the best team. Now I focus on the chaos and drama and sadness and triumph
edited
The NHL made a big deal about filling out brackets when they went to division-based playoffs a few years ago and no one cares about the brackets and the NHL playoff format suuuuuuucks.
That said, I'm OK with no reseeding in baseball. We just lucked into a really lopsided bracket this year because there are 2 1/3 good teams in the entire AL. The most tiresome thing about the MLB playoffs is every year everyone wants to change the whole system to fix idiosyncratic one-year problems.
They won't. We'll have eight four-team divisions.
This is germane to my favorite playoff fun fact, which I just posted on Bluesky: The Phillies are 15-7 all-time in playoff series after winning Game 1 but 0-9 after losing Game 1. So really, both teams have to win today. In fact, whoever wins let's call the rest of the series off and go to the bar
I think this too. I would actually say that the bset way to make the playoffs feel more fair is to make the regular season title feel more impactful. Celebrate it more, that kind of thing. Soccer does a good job of clearly delineating between playoff stuff (Champions League, very importnat, people really care) and regular season (people still really care). Baseball just makes the playoffs the only thing that matter to such an extent that these things like 'short series mean bad teams can win' feel bad to people. If you acknowledge that this is a tournament, feels different to me.
2:38 isn't too early to drink!
Edmundo Sosa asking for the appeal himself and then being disappointed, hilarious
Playoffs = Eagle Rare 12
I feel similarly. The all-time greatest at this is Bill Walton, I believe.
Or during!
There's never been a mechanism for all three of these guys to work together but: Jason Benetti, Kyle Peterson and (don't kill kill me, I think he's great on TV) AJ Pierzynski
Dallas Braden is up there for me. Not always a big fan of his opinions, but man, for whatever reason he's a fun listen for me. And while I often think Keith Hernandez's takes are antiquated, he's just SO delightful to listen to
Yup, so the major choice become accepting MLB playoffs are just a really damn fun bonus or getting constantly annoyed. At least as I see it.
Great challenge by Albies, respect.
I think if you have a three-person booth you need a pitcher and a hitter. That's part of why Ron and Keith (or KP and either Eduardo Perez, Jess Mendoza or Chris Burke; or Pierzynski and Wainwright) works
short guys getting those high strikes called on them must LOVE abs
Totally agree, Mike. Hitter/pitcher/pbp is great
Same. I think Wainwright's terrific in the booth, and he's a good straight man for Pierzynski
Yep, concur with you guys. I think that Pierzynski needs a foil, too.
What a play by Luzardo there. Having the presence of mind to not just chuck it to first but stop and make sure no run scores? Marvelous
Oh the fan casualties
Bunting is pretty good if it's not intended to be a sacrifice.
I haven't figured it out. There have been so injuries, but none to cause this
Yeah, sometimes people just get worse, I guess
"How much pine tar would you need to hang on to a bat without a knob?" would've been a great Mythbusters episode
Probably.
Not me, I'm 48 and am still kinda waking up at 10!
J.T. Realmuto might've ended his oh-fer, Matty, but I'm afraid that "real rough stretch" is still ongoing
If this is the Realmuto in 2026, I'd hate to see the generic knockoff <rimshot>
"He's having a tough mid 2020s"
Realmuto is a great poster boy for how hard catching is. It has just worn him down.
a literal back-foot slider!
Had a damn good peak. Hope he gets a few stray Hall votes
'who knows anymore?' John Kruk says about check swings. Aside from 'anymore' I totally agree with him
Yeah I really agree with both the system and the fact that the line needs to change from what they're testing. It's not fair to ask umpires to do this. It's an impossible ask.
No idea, though I'm gonna spend the next couple innings looking it up. I love this question because getting to the majors early is such a massive determining factor for a player's career, and it goes unnoticed by a lot of people
Yeah, for sure. They can still be villains without literally punching the other guys. (I don't think the Phillies are the bad guys, to be clear, but I respect your decision to do so)
Like, that is a very normal slide, Kim's head was in kind of an unexpected spot
I don't, tbc
Socks Seybold and Ed Charles had more WAR than Yaz
Interesting! I had not noticed this.
10 PM still kinda early for me! I keep the hours of a club kid without the partying
Ah, but I was only counting debut age. The M's screwed around with him for a few years, he debuted younger
I think for this one, you probably need to blame whoever made the earth so dang big that time zones were necessary. Like eh, they have march madness games this late, it's the only first-round game on the west coast, that kinda thing. That said, why not let them overlap A LITTLE? Like, this should start at 9:30 ET, not 10ET, imo
Gunther042, if MLB cared about complaints, then you probably wouldn't be in a state that has six blackout teams.
I think someone that would get exasperated with Kruk constantly. Like Doolittle or maybe Paul O'Neill?
if you lower the age threshold to 26 or 27 you get some fun answers. Earl Averill is the U.S.-born late debut king but before that he was playing the PCL, which was basically a major league at the time. Eddie Stanky debuted at 26 and had 37.0 WAR in the next nine seasons. Don Buford had a cup of coffee in his age-26 season and had 33.4 WAR over the next 8 years
How about Kruk/Maddux?
1) Nope, that's not how labor unions work and 2) There absolutely should be an independent regulation for all industries, especially a legal monopoly like pro sports, but unfortunately the U.S. gave up on government regulation forever in 1981
"First ever bullpen game in a game one in postseason history"
ehhhhhhh, that doesn't really sound interesting enough to me
I shudder to think what a federal Ministry of Sport would look like now, anyway
to get a mention. Like, there are plenty of glorified bullpen games in g1's. burning the whole team on the last day to make the playoffs is a time honored tradition
The ump cam/pitch trajectory overlay rocks, wow
OOTP Perfect Team legend Socks Seybold! I have an irrational liking for that guy because there was a good version of him in the game one year.
Not all old-timey baseball nicknames were PC, but the fact that there's no one in the majors named Socks tells me we threw the baby out with the bathwater
I'll level with you: If I were Don Mattingly, I would've taken 3 innings, 44 pitches and one earned run from Luzardo if you'd offered it before the game
Gotta get balls and strikes fully out first! This is a much harder one
I *think* I understand why the Phillies ran out Nola on short rest in their pursuit of the playoffs. But uh…. 'Aaron Nola on short rest' also sounds like a cautionary tale to scare rookie managers with. I'm sure they'd be happy to give Nola as few innings as possible this series.
Oh man, Votto with the truth bomb. "Don't you think that excuse-me swing jam job might have had some luck to it?"
Probably not. It's not going to be as big a deal for baseball as for other sports and I'm not knowledgeable enough on the particulars to try to write about it freelance somewhere else. If you're interested in money and (especially college) sports and have a couple bucks a month to spend, Matt Brown's Extra Points newsletter is where you want to go for this.
I'm surprised they're throwing Luzardo this much and not even sweating it now
I don't think 4 innings from Luzardo was that crazy coming in, but given all the traffic the past couple innings I wouldn't push it any further
My prior is that they won't change much aside from more aggressively spending the last of them in the eighth/ninth
Like, if you go home with a challenge in your pocket in the playoffs, that feels worse than in an 8-1 August game.
I'm just going to assume the Phillies have at least two relievers warming up right now, because this is a baseball game being managed by Don Mattingly
I think the tricky part is how lastingly good Yaz has been. If one swing change can salvage your career in a lasting way, you might have found it earlier. I think of a poker saying: "If you start with a worse hand, even when you improve, you're likely to improve to second-best"
That was more than 10 years ago! Mattingly's evolved! He's finding completely new ways to mismanage his pitching staff now!
Gotta think that was the plan if you had a dead bullpen with two guys on, even with two outs
Teams are way better than they used to be. Ken Phelps All-Stars aren't really a thing anymore. Pretty much anyone will eventually get a chance now
Just testing if it shows images https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTRdgKAWQAAxpdL?format=png&name=…
To finish out the Yaz discussion from earlier, I guess my point is just that it's really rare for you to hang around THAT long without ever happening upon something that spikes you up to the majors. And then have this one thing lastingly make it work. People have one-off good seasons, sure, but Yaz has been good for a very long time after a late start, and that combo (unproductive/unexciting enough that even with natural tinkering you don't hit the majors until 28, then lastingly good after) is just really unlikely. It's like a population or sampling bias or something.
It does not
Oh, just projected wins vs. actual
So, by convention (I guess?) 'sweeper' is about the induced break. Sale's pitch moves left to right a lot, but that's because of his arm slot. It doesn't really have much horizontal break to it, if that makes sense. He just throws it sideways. Whereas a 'sweeper' is one that diverges a lot from the flight path. It's kind of a distinction without a difference thing, though.
I find slurves still quite effective in MLB the Show at least!
Yeah for sure. And to Dan's point, I do think there were more Ken Phelps type guys avialable in the past. I don't think a hitter like Yaz would stick around until 28 without a debut anymore, either. It's kind of striking that the O's never gave him even a cup of coffee.
OOps, i responded in teh chat window lol
I'm not sure – some of the guys who were on the precipice were axed in season
I actually thought John Schneider might get fired
Weird, now I haven't seen *anyone's* answer in this window since Ben at 3:19
This is probably an unsatisfying answer, but without knowing anything about you, you're less of a crazy person than Chris Sale. Less than almost any pro athlete, really. I haven't met Chris Sale, and yet I feel very confident that he is basically maxing himself out trying to get better at baseball at all times. I agree it's kinda nuts to see him throwing this hard, but on the other hand, he's a 1-of-1 outlier guy in his physical mechanics and whatnot, and baseball as a whole is getting much better at throwing harder over time. Pretty cool that he's improving by enough to offest aging.
I would assume so.
Also if you are more of a crazy person than Chris Sale, please get out of this chat
actually yeah! I PR'ed in the half marathon at 37 38 and 39 (didn't run one at 40, but honestly I probably have topped out now)
Happy playoffs!
Okay, so Votto just said "Kyle is not thinking 'I'm gonna homer you.'"
I totally believe that hitters are being sincere when they talk about just trying to take a good at-bat and if the homers come they come. But um, I'm sorry, do people say "I'm gonna homer you?" Like, homer as a verb that way?
Kruk's been on his best behavior all day and I was so delighted he couldn't keep that one in
Oh man, I misjudged that one. Thought it was out for sure.
Hmm, closing my browser completely and reconnecting still leaves everything frozen at 3:19
There's no rooting in the press box, of course. But I'm not in the press box, and I will definitely be rooting for all the underdogs in the segmented part of my brain that isn't neutral for objective coverage.
You have to make them more special, which they won't do
I root in order: Orioles->Chaos->Underdogs->Non-Yankees->Yankees
Yeah, I double taked there too and am alreayd checking
I thought it was foul off the bat and he immediately went Full "THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT" and startled the hell out of me. Man got so hyped to do his big home run call he couldn't hold it in
Dan I'm pretty similar overall. I also root for all the teams that have never won a WS in general.
How quickly everyone forgets the near-Kershaw-level Sale Playoff Discourse of 2018
But it's true. Sale's longest start was 5 1/3 innings. Probably because his ERA is 6.35
Actually Sale's first playoff appearance since 2021
Good reminder that postseason reputations aren't a straight accounting of how you did. Matters a lot what people remember. We're all so surprised by Sale's lack of postseason pedigree because he seems like such a bulldog.
No no, now we just call that "a reliever". Throwing 99 is redundant these days
My pet theory is that 95% of Clutch Discourse is nothing but phrenology. People decide whether an athlete's clutch based on what his face look like
Harris's hit there was a great example of why hard fastballs away are generally not adored. It's easier to be late on them and yet punch it through.
I totally agree with you, Baumann
phrenology would at least be a consistent bad approach. clutch is typically used just as an excuse to say whatever you want to say about a guy anyway without a mean old stathead standing in your way
Derek Hill slid like it was a wet bathroom floor
Hi everyone! Couldn't be here for the full game, but I am here now and should be able to stick around for the start of the next game, as well. Got the TV on just in time to see that Albies triple. Sorry, Phils fans. Might be my fault.
I understand that play's hard, but a lot of big league center fielders make it. I don't think he knocked it back in, I think if it hit his glove he would have, but his arm didn't appaer to be over the wall.
I bet Sale goes in with a Braves cap
Is Riley just deciding to swing or not before the pitch is even thrown?
BREAKING: Riley isn't comfortable against pitches.
Well now I'll take Sale :). No, I would have probably taken Sale anyway.
Shout out to Ozzie Albies for crushing a ball off a righthander, I didn't know he could do that
Man, I've gotten almost ALL local commercials on this one. MLB having trouble selling the national ones? Remember that year it was Lowe's/Home Depot (forget which) every single break?
Thought the Phillies were home free once Albies was done facing lefties for the day
OH wait, this is peacock, not mlb.tv
I'm with Drew. Nothing I love more than a wall-to-wall Sports On TV day, and the first week of MLB playoffs is up there with the first weekend of March Madness, the Olympics, the group stage of the World Cup…
Interesting, and surely part of it. That's part of a lot of platoon splits, though. Like, in general, you get tougher matchups of your own handedness as a pitcher. It's also a small sample size thing. And also I kind of think Tolle might be a neutral-platoon guy b/c he's weird and throws fastballs.
So kind of a little of column a, little of column b
There are dozens of us!
"I get why Bryson is bunting here" wait I don't!
This is not a bunt spot! They're down and they need to not sacrifice outs. Pinch hit for him if you must.
Kruk needs to flame Stott for not bunting there to be consistent.
Hit for butters
I like to think the baseball gods rewarded De La Cruz for making an actual effort to get out of the way of that slider.
PA's got a gubernatorial election this year. I've gotten a couple ads but the density is nowhere near what I've seen in other years. I guess no one credible wants to run against Josh Shapiro after he [REDACTED]
I think this would be a VERY poor decision given that Yordan crushes everyone about the same
See the lack of fear a manager has pulling Sale? Scherzer makes a manager wonder if he's risking his life
they have eight trillion lefty relievers, too, if they just MUST have a lefty against him
That said I might bring in Grant Taylor for the second time through, lol
At FanGraphs, we're not allowed to quote 74-PA platoon splits.
They've platooned Stott quite a bit in the past and both Hill and De La Cruz have hit lefties well this season. I don't know if I'd write the same lineup but it's less crazy than it looks just based on the names
or at least, I hope we're not.
Don't need a crazy bunt hit rate to make a bunt worthwhile. Just not sure Stott is that guy
Yeah, woof
Yeah, I'm not saying it's a bad decision. It just feels bad that it's their best option.
OH MY GOD REALMUTO GOT A HIT!
He stole 21 bases this year but was caught 8 times, which is a really low success rate by his standard, but 21 steals is the 4th most in his career, even with only 107 games played. Given the decreased success rate and the need to keep him healthy, I wouldn't be surprised if he runs a bit less, maybe? But I don't think he is going to stop. I would bet on 20-25 steals in a full season. 70 isn't happening again.
Acuña did his own vaudeville skit there
We're teaming up to do them this year. Last year Dan grabbed some of them, but we're now going to break them up even more
It's not like the PHillies have an exciting bench
haha yeah, I agree that that's what is going on here. I'd just say focus on giving your pitchers the best matchups for them. Yordan is a force of nature. He happens to you, you don't happen to him.
BTW – in ZiPS, a Braves win put them up 70/30, Phillies win puts them up 80/20
Better lucky than good when it comes to predictions
If Duran's getting nine outs I'm probably going to be dead by the time the game ends, in which case, it's been a pleasure chatting with you guys
Ooh, this is a good question (and one many are asking). I am expected value pilled, and I would probably only want Duran for one inning to preserve optionality for the future but I'm pretty sure that's not going to be a popular take
edited
Triples were up across MLB this year vs. last, but XBH were down. 7,493 doubles is 252 fewer than last year and those are the two lowest doubles totals since the COVID year. Triples were up to 671 from 628. Is that why we got two triples today? Yes, definitely, that is why.
Hello everyone, I'm not "supposed" to be here until CHW/HOU but Duran in the seventh has me pumped
Yeah, exactly haha. I do think I am right. I do not think that what I would prefer will happen.
I wouldn't mind Duran for the top of the order and then a low-lev guy at the end
like, I really do want him for Baldwin and co
I like going to Duran here – he is supposed to be available for more than an inning, and maybe you have to figure out the ninth, but if he is efficient…who knows?
My guess is Mattingly's going to try to get through the top half of the order at least, maybe as far as Albies if he gets through quickly. After that, Painter if it's a clean inning, Bowlan if not
If he can get you 7 and 8 and leave the bottom of the order for someone else, that's not a bad outcome. If he gets a couple of quick innings and the pitch count stays low, maybe he can get another?
Atlanta's lineup drops off very quickly after the top three, IMO, so he's certainly getting four batters and to Baumann's point, getting through the sixth spot is in play if he's efficient enough
yeah. although they have to play tomorrow. and they'd probably want Jhoan Duran for that
You run the risk of him being absolutely gassed tomorrow but a bird in the hand and all that
I really do like using him against the top though
Just putting you on the record so you can say you called it if it happens.
Agreed with that, Jon – get the win now and worry about tomorrow tomorrow. You might be up 8 tomorrow, who knows.
Consider the lilies of the field, Becks
Want to take the opportunity to call out Duran expanding his pitch mix even more this year, adding a sweeper to give him some east-west
Hey Jon, Chad (sorry was in bathroom)
I would be curious what others think about this, but I will say I kinda HOPE they go less balanced. I find the divisional rivalries fun and I think it makes post-season series more special. It also sets them up well for expansion, because the schedule will almost have to get less balanced at that point, I think.
I hear you guys saying you have to play like there's no tomorrow. My counter is that you're not adding that much win probability by having tired Duran go against the Braves' bad hitters compared to someone else. It's not liek if you take Duran out, you lose the game.
Yeah. For sure. But like, okay, why not use Wheeler and Painter and Nola and have Duran throw the first 4 innings then? Like, it's all a tradeoff somewhere
Totally fair, Ben. And I am not saying he has to pitch the 9th. But by going to him now, you get him through the top of the order and potentially have the option to let him finish it out.
I'm old enough to know how to look on YouTube for highlights
I do miss crazy closers
I think I'm just differently placed on the 'how much should we slam the closer' spectrum, and believe that extending guys this long has more carryover effects. But yeah, I think we're basically mostly in agreement here.
Every playoffs I forget how close the field mics are, on average, compared to the regular season
Dylan Lee is one of my favorite random major leaguers. He's great! And has been for a while. And you might not know who he is
Dylan Lee changed either his hair or beard but for a while he looked exactly like Leon Draisaitl
this booth has been quite good today imo
For sure. The calculus changes a lot with another run, let alone if they are somehow able to break it open.
Maybe then he manage too! Which would be highly entertaining
Took a while for the booth to gel — I think three guys up in the booth and one on the field is REALLY hard to coordinate and cue Votto in, but it's been awesome since the middle innings
Actually, Votto/Kruk already would be a good Planes, Trains and Automobiles pair or a Road to… pari
hahahaha "Somebody smart, wasn't Francoeur, was it?" and then someone in the booth even said "frenchy catching strays". Delightful to me.
CJ's been good too! Just not as ridiculous as Kruk, because nobody is. When you have 17 guys on the mic you gotta get a pitcher in there
AJ Blubaugh led relievers in innings this year without a single start and he's starting G1 for the Astros. In the playoffs, up is down and right is left and red is blue
I have to admit, what's fun broadcasting for me these days isn't what is best for most fans. I mostly like nonsense. Unless you're going to break down mechanics, I don't get much out of the playcall or the analysis
You can see they're coming in almost parallel with the first base line instead of straight over the backstop. I love how they always play afternoon postseason games at the ballpark that's facing the wrong direction
The Phillies' ideal defensive lineup is still… not great, so I get prioritizing offense in that moment
OH WOW what a catch
Reminds me of that Jose Fernandez/Troy Tulowitzki play
"ball caught him" applies here
Just defending himself…wow
Okay we're now reaching the "Duran has thrown few enough pitches to get five outs where you start thinking about the ninth" territory
I also thought that hit him in the chest. Man, that scared him to death
That throw looks like something I'd do (derogatory)
That baserunner is interesting for the Duran question. If that chopper ends the inning, it's a 6 pitch inning and 19 total pitches through 2 IP. Makes a third seem less risky. Instead, we're still going.
For all of the "players have great internal clocks" talk (and they absolutely do) I'm amazed by how many times you see throws made where the infielder is looking right at the runner he has no shot of getting
We're also one step closer to Baldwin getting another PA, likely against not-Duran
I'd be pretty interseted in running on Duran here
But eh, it's not really Atlanta's thing, so I get it.
Our interests are correlated
Good pickup by Kruk and Votto that Harper doesn't konw where to stand and is trying to get the dugout's attention. Probably won't matter, but those are the kind of observations that I would not pick up otherwise.
Yeah, I think that Harris grounder made it hard and the long Albies PA ended it.
"I guarantee you if it was bad to win the challenge, Atlanta wouldn't have challenged" well yeah….
Duran gassed in a multi-inning stint against the Dodgers last year, this is gonna be touch-and-go
I see at least a few a year when a wild pitch would've scored a run
Oh wow
Hey guys, I don't think Duran is going nine.
Man, now I feel bad for ragging on Riley earlier
What a swing.
Riley has never been a good fastball hitter and has been especially bad against them this year, but when you put it there…
To be fair, Duran is beyond gassed and threw him a mid-mid spinner
Well, they may have solved the Duran three inning problem.
Well, I gotta go start my recap. It's been something, folks.
ehhhhh…. baseball's pretty random. he easily could have not had that happen. All I'll say is that sometimes good pitchers get got, and sometimes bad pitchers excel. so I like not pushing my guys too much
At that point, it's down 2 with bases empty
And if Matt or Meg is reading this, I didn't mean "start" my recap, I've been writing for at least four innings now
Hindsight and all that, but Duran looked gassed during the Albies PA and after the Olson liner plus the total lack of control vs. Albies…maybe was time to make a change?
I mean, what a disaster for the PHillies now, though. Now Duran is either unavailable or sketchily available tomorrow
but obviously they'll have to run him out there, playing with no net. and then that SURELY means he's out for g3
I thought it was the correct move at the time and didn't even mind him staying in against Riley but in the playoffs the ends have to justify the means or nobody cares, and, well
'sometimes you just get got' is the truest baseball thing
100%. Has to be.
Yeah. I mean, has to be. It's never ideal to go into an elimination game with your closer already gassed. But like…. they're here now. No other options. Play it as it lies.
I think having him face the top of the order in the 7th and start the 8th was the right call, though maybe he McFarlane could have gotten Smith? But I have no issue with that. The question was always "how long can you wait before pulling him?" and there is a good case to be made that the Albies PA should have been the signal to make that call. But I dunno, I think I probably would have stuck with him, too.
Cody Bellinger, much to his own chagrin
The Phillies not having a better option than De La Cruz to hit against Iglesias there really encapsulates their lack of offensive depth and how much they surely miss Arraez
Okay, seems like challenge behavior won't chnage. Stott just let one on the corner go, with two challenges left, down two, two outs, top 9
The camera having no clue where the ball was at the end there was fun.
Postseason pressure gets to everyone, even the camera people
And there's time to regroup before White Sox/Astros. Pop some popcorn and get ready to dissect bullpens, everyone
Honestly the shadows are probably BRUTAL if you're looking through a camera for a ball
See, Duran DID finish out the game.
what if we did all the bad things.
haha Chad, touche
I want to give the broadcast booth some props for the fact that they were discussing the possibility of Duran's workload being 1/2/3 innings and how it might work or not work. I feel like that'd be an easy one to just gloss over and focus on "the mental intensity of the playoffs" and whatnot, kudos to them for spending some time talking about the decision beforehand rather than just evaluating it after.
As good as Mahle was down the stretch for ATL, if I am a Phillies fan, I am feeling good about my chances to force a third game. But probably need Sanchez to give them some real length just to avoid the pen.
I'm recapping this one and oh man, I'm dreading how many pitchers I'll have to write about already.
That was such a shocking trade. Like, they salary dumped him right after giving him a free agent deal that he was living up to.
Yeah, but then you're likely getting an Aaron Nola elimination game start
He's been downgraded to Deuce Turner
Yeah that is the rough part. Had they gotten rocked and saved Duran as a result, this would feel much better.
Dan they basically ran a Nola elimination game start on short rest down the stretch. I'm not saying I'd do that. But they seem surprisingly okay with the possibility.
Oh yeah. I mean, that's the reasoning for it. Big credit to the Braves for not fumbling the bag though. If someone hands you free money, take it.
Agreed. Good performances + drama + stuff we can argue about = what playoff baseball should be
yeah. wonderful start to the playoffs.
And only 7-8 more hours to go tonight
Anyone know what channel NBCSN is?
NBCSN doesn't seem to exist for me, Peacock only. I don't even know if my cable package offers it.
Compass, sextant, astrolabe, and a Peacock subscription
I agre. It feels similar to top of the ninth. Chance to counter for the team that gave up the lead is fun too.
Nah he had no shot
I don't think even Masyn Winn has the arm to get him there
I guess what I'd say is that the Estevez trade was pretty much market rate, as I remember from the time. And eh, everyone got what they wanted out of that. The Iglesias trade was just shocking right on the face of it, right away. To the point where I wonder whether this was an Arte-mandated salary dump or something? IT was just…. an all star closer…. for nothing. Right when the Braves could use one too.
Um, "they play small ball, they run the bases" Eric Hosmer have you watched the White Sox?
I think when one player is very unique in that sense (Sam Antonacci, hello) it gets extrapolated to the whole team, and, uh…
I like watching the White Sox, I'd put them high on my subjective viewing list this year. I cannot think of a worse way to describe them.
Did Hosmer just say Riley should be hitting 4th?
Okay I have to go and start getting ready to recap this game but first I have to say this. These FanDuel ads SUCK. They're so bad. I hope baseball and NBC are embarrassed to play them. I hope they face consequences for their ridiculous, craven embrace of these bad actors. Happy playoffs!
Sox are 10th in sac bunts, but they're among a bunch of other teams there, not like a big bunting team. They are T-18th in stolen bases, but 12th in CS.
Absolutely, though going with Hagen Smith to start makes me think they're pitching to him in the first, which I endorse
I'll say there is at least a chance of the former, but no way on the latter. I just can't really see the scenario for that. Bases loaded, up 4, two outs?
Tom McCarthy announcing something besides a Phillies game or the worst NFL matchup on CBS is a new one, I think
edited
Steve Stone's tie is pretty cool (these are the insights you get from a Jon Becker live chat when I slept five hours last night)
Even on the bases empty IBB, I struggle to think of a situation in which it makes sense, especially with Paredes behind him and the Crawford boxes beckoning.
Okay, I've screamed into a pillow and cried in the shower so now I am ready to chat.
Was more than a little surprised by the Astros going with Blubaugh to start over a lefty; this lets the White Sox deploy Grichuk exactly when they want to and creates a pocket of lefties 9-1-2 where Espada could be baited into bringing a lefty in only to face Grichuk
I think my biggest question in this series is what we see from Murakami. He was so bad for a stretch there, and I was wondering if the league had just adjusted to him, but he finished strong. What does he look like when an org can be just laser focused on how to pitch him?
Sammy is a spikey, intense guy who will jaw with others and stir things up.
Over
Pham is the second or maybe even third choice RH bat off the bench for the Sox, but the Sox will PH aggressively in the OF.
LaRussa was at WPBL Opening Day and looks like a Halloween decoration. He's done so much for animal wellness, but yeah toward the end he seemed regressive just to prove a point.
White Sox were third in MLB in PH PA with 218. Only Texas (220) and Detroit (224) had more.
Not sure how many first baseman even attempt that throw from that angle, Walker being really good (and surely knowing he is) bit him there
Bryan King, the reverse splits lefty, is warming in the bullpen for the Astros already, per reporters there. O/U 6.5 pitchers for Houston in today's game?
I can think of just two…
1) Foam Density – Less dense foam better absorbs and muffles the sounds so the neighbors don't call the authorities.
2) Drool Rings – The rings created by your sleepytime spittle give your screaming pillow character, like Craig Biggio's helmet.
Looks like Miguel Ullola is also getting loose in the bullpen, he can give 2-3 innings no problem
No issue working around Vargas there, but worth noting Murakami has all of three GIDP this season. You can get him to K, but the ball is never on the ground.
And there's the fly ball
Once Antonacci got to third with one out, I still think being cautious with Vargas and going after Murakami was the best path forward, but that sac fly was so likely. Though, given what we have seen since, maybe he wasn't being cautious with Vargas, maybe he just can't throw strikes?
Came up through the minors as a starter and started three games last year, I don't really think that factored. He just didn't have it
King looked pretty sharp, would guess the plan is to get him through Teel at least knowing that Venable probably wouldn't pull the trigger on Grichuk unless it's a RISP situation
I also think it's worth noting that this was his inning:
8 pitch walk
Weak GO after getting ahead 0-2
5 pitch walk to a guy you can accept a 5 pitch walk
Lazy fly ball after getting ahead 0-1
5 pitch walk
Other than the Benitendi walk, it's not super clear he didn't have it today.
If any of you want to delay the chat to match your streaming situation. If you 1.) refresh the page and 2.) look for the cog icon in the top right corner of the chat, you can delay the chats messages up to 3 minutes.
I think walk, move up on a FC, advance on an error, score on a sac fly is definitely small ball
Sean, this is really cool.
Thanks! Someone in the chat this afternoon came up with the idea.
Teel has been hitting second against RHSP pretty consistently since coming off the IL. First few games he hit 9th, but moved up and stuck there the last three weeks or so.
Believe it's the first time in a game, let alone to start a series
As a Guardians fan I am torn between wanting a .500 team out as quickly as possible and wanting these teams to have to play three 15-inning games so whoever shows up to Progressive Field this weekend is too exhausted to put up a fight.
I'll be back if they canonize Jerry Krause, patron saint of sauce on the front of your shirt
I agreed with when they brought him in but not how long he was left in. Make a pitching change and let those shadows creep a little more.
Mark Reynolds' name has now appeared on the broadcast, for anyone with an overly-specific drinking game
White Sox team makeup is so weird with the extreme K/Launch guys like 'Kami and Colson, and then the Meidroth/Antonacci line-movers.
I've been thinking about Jack Cust lately because of Andrew Fischer
That's a dagger of a HBP, King had the right idea to keep spamming high fastballs but missed horribly
I just added Fischer in an Ottoneu league and I am not sure how to feel about that last post, Eric!
We can start making stuff up, if you'd like
Lovely left-on-left knock for Sam Antagonacci
This is getting close to "how many innings can Tatsuya Imai eat?" already
I wonder if this lineup construction of extremes allows the White Sox to punch above their weight? You are forcing pitchers to constantly change approaches.
Two pitchers to get three outs so far for Houston
Two mid-inning pitching changes already, gonna be a lot of Liberty Biberty ads today
very midwest of you!
3-0 is probably too soon, but at what point do the Astros just have to go to someone who can go a few innings and eat it? Winning today matters, but you need 2 of 3, and today doesn't have to be one of those two.
(Do not post the meme at me) 6-7 runs maybe?
We're definitely going to see Lower Case Logan today
We might be at 6-7 runs in like three minutes.
This is Tom McCarthy's second Houston sports call in three days, he did Colts/Texans on Sunday.
And there is the in-zone whiff for Murakami
That was a huge, huge inning for Ullola. And only 9 pitches.
Did everyone get a Dutch Bros commercial, or just me?
YouTube TV showed me zebras. Just like…standing there.
Def a locally targeted ad then. Dutch Bros is our locally popular coffee/liquified sheet cake drive thru spot
Your four seamers from that slot tend to tail because of the spin axis created by the slot, but are still uphill because of how low your arm angle is. The cutter gives you something that can still ride uphill but move glove-side, or have closer to neutral movement.
Smith this year is 48% FS, 19% cutter, 30% slider. Exactly one pitcher went 100+ IP this year with 40%+ FS, 15%+ cutters, 25%+ sliders and that was Robert Gasser.
Another guy with a slot like that
as if the playoffs weren't exciting enough, my smoke alarm is going off from a dead battery, be back in a few after I call maintenance
I am almost out of time here, folks. Wish I could stay longer but in about 15 or so, I have to get to a middle school soccer match. Astros-Sox will be fun, but need to prioritize the 6th grade Cardinals vs…..uh….I actually have no idea who they are playing against?
My wife just asked me about this! We didn't notice it at all.
The Yodeler is carving
Looks like it was centered in Kitsap, which isn't so far from me, but I missed it. You'd think with my midwest roots, I'd be panicked by any small movement.
This is also good, Espada is gonna come take him out too soon and Dave Chappelle is going to throw a fit about it.
Lewis going from a 128 wRC+ in his debut in 2019 to 127 in his rookie year in 2020, to 107 in 2021…and then 58 and 21 in '22 and '23 is just a wild fall.
Knees, man.
Though Luis Gil is working on that path after winning in 2024
Bob Hamelin won in 1994 and last appeared in MLB in 1998, so not too different. Something about those shortened seasons, I guess.
Berroa was still getting MLB PA as late as 2009. Only 55 of them but still.
He and Jason Jennings were the first names that came to mind for me but they both played like 7 years. Jose Fernandez is technically an answer, as well.
I haven't tried it in 12 years living here. The Cartel in Tempe and Coffee 48 are my spots.
Pizzicletta is a thing to pine for
I thought of Jennings, as well, and was surprised he lasted as long as he did. The thing with Lewis is not just that he struggled, but he barely played. Jennings kept pitching (poorly; thanks Coors) for a while.
Montgomery had gone ice cold and getting hit with that pitch woke him up.
The White Sox got so much less scary for a while there with Montgomery and Murakami not hitting. Munetaka seemed to be heating up again at the end of the year and if that gets Colson going, this is a different team.
Stood on my kitchen table to pull out my smoke alarm (don't worry, my apartment has another one) and missed Colson's homer to do it. Never address any of your problems or you'll miss baseball, kids
I have no idea what that means but I felt like it needed to be shared.
Oh we have a shift challenge!
Altuve moved onto the dirt but you need to see it synced up to the pitch, right?
Oh man, was Altuve cavalier with a rule?
I don't see how this can get overturned
He's absolutely on the grass there, I think, but can't overturn it
I also don't know WHEN he was on the grass
that wide angle it is hard to see, but it looks like he moves after the windup and before the pitch and I have no idea what the rule is lol
(shakes head fervently)
I have seen a review for a fielder being too far up the middle, but not the grass.
so the key moment is when the pitch is released? if so, I think he was back on the dirt for that.
I'm surprised more fielders don't start on the grass and sprint in as the pitch is being thrown to annoy the hitter
Feels like motioning the defense is underutilized, and by underutilized I mean not at all
All the infielders should start together on 2B and when the pitcher comes set, they break
This is where two challenges in a game really comes into play
The odds that you burn two and really wish you had the third prior to extra innings have to be extremely low, I would think
I can see the argument that this was the wrong moment to use that intel, but maybe they wanted to do it early to get in his head? Have him focused on that aspect of his positioning instead of playing his position, which he is already bad at.
Alright, time for me to head out. Enjoy the rest of the game!
Bye Chad!
Adios Chad!
I've never seen a manager ask the crew chief to review something and them not look at, though it has probably happened. I also wish the umps would tell managers they take too long to ask for replay review. They take too long!
Also, hi all, figured I'd hang out for a bit until I have a gamer to edit.
Meg is here, time to be on your best behaviour
I think they wanted him to face the righty-hitting chunk of the middle of the order regardless off the inning.
I also don't believe in "so early" as a construct in the playoffs, really
Rather be "so early" than "too late," as it were.
Sending the pope and william friedkin to your house for IT purposes.
Continues to mess me up to hear the pope speak in a Chicagoland accent.
Sometimes it takes them a minute to get the MiLB headshot over there when a guy is recently called up. You have to be in the majors for a while before they just merge the pages, I think.
A lotta good opposite field hitting today, huh
Texting Smigel. "What if the Archbishop of the Philadelphia Diocese is a tavern-style pizza?"
I'd have been tempted to hit Pham for Colson here
Gimme a ball in play, Acuna can play MIF rest of game
Well, there's the ball in play
The Phanatic is the best, the Swinging Friar and the Barrel Man are good (Bernie Brewer is fine), Clark the Cub should put on pants, and Blooper is evidence of the decline of civilization.
Ulamog would be a great mascot
Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey is actually just about Blooper.
We have forgotten how to write, because of Blooper. Only songs for us now.
That's right, he requires children slaughter a sheep so he can drink of its blood before he signs autographs for you, kid.
"What if it's flesh colored, but has the texture of a t-shirt that has come into contact with velcro for 15 years?
They could have other mascots with names for balls in play. Screamer, Dribbler, Roller, Chopper. How is it not named Chopper?
The fleshy color is the biggest issue imo.
edited
Too Big Bird like. Though now he just looks like unwell Phanatic. Have the creative courage to differentiate yourself from your rival.
Honestly, I'm surprised that wasn't seen as a plus for them. Not like the team is bashful about it!
Ah man, so many guys. All the Giants arms, the recently-injured guys (Aidan Miller and Sebastian Walcott) playing shortstop, Angiebel Gomez, Tai Peete, Bryce Rainer, Jarlin Susana…. it's a long list. I'll have a preview up Friday with a Board tab like last year's.
Well, sure glad I didn't put a bunch of Velázquez's crummy numbers in here to question this choice.
Nelly Velasquez two-run shot makes it a game again, Astros top of the order looming.
We're suddenly in "figure out how the White Sox get through the game" mode even though they're still up three. Not sure if they want to use Newcomb past Alvarez — maybe Taylor for the next eight hitters and then give it to Hudson?
Sanford I think has to do with equipment change. Francisca idk yet. It's funny to look at bat size/shape/brand on old film now to see if that's all that's changed.
Antonacci HBP, drink
as you wish (lime polar seltzer)
Those two double plays feel like a huge deal if only because of how deep they helped Hendrickson to go
Oh god, it's VanWey.
lowercase logan
I HATE the typesetting on his jersey
me too! it's like they ran out of regular letters
I generally support camelcasing, but come on.
From a Houston Chronicle article last year (https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/astros/article/logan…)
"“It’s kind of been a thing growing up,” VanWey said. “Every time like in college or the minor leagues, it’s been pronounced ‘VanWay’ or it’s spelled different with a space and I’ve just kind of like not corrected anybody but now my mom (Brittany) hears it and she’s the biggest one (saying) ‘It’s VanWey, it’s a capital W and there’s no space.’ It’s just kind of been a mess sometimes.”
The opportunity to clean up that mess came a couple months ago. During spring training, Astros clubhouse personnel inquired if VanWey wanted his jersey to match the correct spelling of his Dutch surname, as opposed to the all-caps format for the vast majority of names on the backs of MLB jerseys. And unlike last year’s new Nike-designed uniforms that were roundly criticized, in part for names and numbers that were too small, VanWey’s name can be easily seen."
By this logic, everyone's all-caps jersey are misspelled!
Right. I totally get wanting it to be correct on the roster and your player page, but it's not misspelling it; there isn't an extra letter in there!
Adding a space where there isn't one, sure. But they aren't doing that.
There are some details particular to the way WAR is calc'd that make it impossible. What constitutes replacement level for the playoffs? Also, there are only so many shares of wins that go around during the regular season but it's a pretty set, big number of games and everyone plays the same, and not a knockout style ladder. WAR is zero sum, it's not like "He went 2-for-4 with a walk and a double, that's .7 WAR", the context of the rest of the league sets baselines and they matter.
I get the pronunciation is harder to nail when there's caps in the middle and it's harder to parse VANWEY than VanWey but… how much harder?
Sean being careful there, wanted to make sure that when it comes to his pitches, Yordan couldn't Newcomb
Well this is not Grant Taylor in this spot, it's David Sandlin time
Unfortunately no.
Six pitches, man. Things have really stacked nicely for Venable so far today.
Remember how that guy debuted. If he looks good during Live BPs or whatever setting, I'd feel comfortable with it. You're trying to *win* the damn thing, and having Crochet get rolling and being mostly himself raises the ceiling on your squad. I'm pro Musgrove, too.
Bloop bloop bloop.
A rare bunt that I really don't mind there, Peters isn't good against lefties. Though I'd have considered just hitting Doyle there instead
No, I think when you're merged with technology, in this case the electronic pages of fangraphs.com, you're technically a cyborg.
Oh goodness
This inning is not going to make it on any fielding or baserunning highlight reels
Want to keep Peters' glove, I'd imagine? (re: not pinch-hitting with Doyle)
That's a good point, Doyle probably comes in defensively for Antonacci's spot and not Peters'
Yeah, you definitely want the bunt to go toward third base to force the third baseman (who'd otherwise be able to cover third and tag the runner) to come in and be the one who fields the baseball. But you don't want to *try* to make it a room service play for Isaac.
Really terrible trio of whiffs there for sure.
Man, those teams are so talented. This year's AL was like last year's AFC.
These double plays are brutal, man.
Yo, we still have two more games to watch after this. This rules.
October is busy, and stressful, and really the freakin' best.
And it's not even October yet!
Putting Aces/Fever on the JV TV (sorry hockey, see you tomorrow)
How crowded do the bases need to be before Taylor comes in?
I'd think one more runner
Would be hilarious to show up to the big league clubhouse with a giant fish.
Apologies if this was talked about earlier in the chat, but I really like this booth format for the WC round.
I love the four-person crew, they've really made it work in both games so far
I get that you'd rather regret bringing Taylor in too early than too late but this feels a liiiiiiittle like over-managing to me
It's just really nice to have the local booth represented as a complement to the national guys.
Yeah I think this would be Brazoban for me with Taylor lined up more squarely to face the top of the lineup. I imagine Grant will go 1.2
Not really comparable imo, Taylor has gone multiple innings a ton and is used to the up-downs. Duran is a one-inning guy (and as I said during that game, bringing Duran in then was correct to me)
Meh, some of us want time to get up and stare into the fridge.
Yeah, I didn't mind that choice at all (Duran in when he was). Maybe you don't like leaving him in that long, but he hadn't thrown that many pitches, and I get thinking the rest of the group is shaky.
It's just Hader, Imai, Brown, Lambert and Wesneski left, right?
His swing tendencies went in the wrong direction. Was taking more pitches in the heart of the zone, chasing a little more
edited
"Bounced one off his anatomy" is a hell of a phrase.
If we can have commercials about shaving your balls we can just say he took a pitch to the scrotum, it's ok
Not that I can recall, it's a good idea.
I agree with the general sentiment that Abreu's usage will be likely be frivolous. Though it feels less so now than when I began typing this sentence before Yordan's single.
Small sample but players have been really locked in on not making silly challenges in these first couple games
Agreed, very discerning. I wonder with a pitch like that, how much is him going off game state, and how much is him really thinking it's a strike.
Another good one!
Hello, baseball people!
Yoooooo
Hi Davy!
Hi Davy!
So many friends! How has everyone enjoyed the baseball today?
Davy, my eyes are glazing over
I can't believe we're not even halfway done.
Now I do think you're at risk of falling prey to what Donny Baseball did earlier.
He sure looked off the bag…
I think Murakami had the bag but I don't think enough to overturn there
The dirt on the bag and the dirt on his cleats make it hard to tell
My gut says yes, but we'll find out soon! And if we don't find out conclusively, maybe I will write an article Zaprudering it like I did last year.
Well, my gut is 0-1 on the night. And these Pumpkin Spice Milanos I bought as a chat snack are very likely to run the score up even higher.
Yeah, Altuve was bookin' it.
I'm fine with Taylor staying in here but you can't potentially burn his availability for tomorrow by keeping him in for the ninth
Yeah, he's already at 30…
I don't think it'll be that hard. Hope Brown gets you pretty deep, get it to Hader with Abreu somewhere in the middle and Lambert probably available
I believe the official position here is Team Asteroid.
I don't love the standard as is; it's overly deferential to the call on the field imo.
I wrote a whole article arguing that they should ignore the call on the field, so I've got to be on that team too.
I understand deferring if you think it's a 50/50 call, so maybe it just ends up in the same place, but I wonder what the overturn rate would be if there was a way to obscure what the call on the field was.
I think that's true for bangbang plays at the bases where the tie is supposed to go to the runner, but now it's "the tie goes to the call on the field"
100%.
Hey y'all!
Paul!
[Cheers voice] Paul!
This guy gets it.
Publishing this just because this is not something I have ever even thought about. Anybody?
First basemen should wear clown shoes for maximum bag-covering ability
LOL amazing idea, Jon!
Yeah, I get wanting to hold it at 3 but it's not a choice I love!
Taylor is coming back out for the ninth, not a fan
Hey Paul!
edited
Yeah, I'm also not super stoked on 40-plus pitch Taylor usage here
I am going to dip now that the rest of the gang's here – catch you all later!
I'm OK bringing him out for the 9th and seeing where it goes. He's at 36 pitches and has only eclipsed that total thrice this year, but I'm of the mind that the playoffs is where you push things like that. And obviously taking game 1 is so massive for them.
Bye, Meg!
Bye Meg!! Hi Eric!!
Playoffs are a different animal, yada yada, but why are you rostering other pitchers if there aren't other guys you can trust up three runs against 6-7-8
I think 6-7-8 is a particularly strong point in not bringing him out, well said.
is someone at least up in case things get hot?
There was stretching last inning but I haven't seen anyone up this inning, no
And by "seen" I mean "on television"
Leadoff BB is a total nightmare, great take by Walk
Same! Fully in the bag for Tolle and as such, behind the Sox a bit since my Tigers gagged the season
I'm not aware of it, but I can't imagine there's much there.
Oh yeah, Red Sox/Yankees has started, as we are over three hours here
For me it's less about concern that he'd falter this inning (and it looks like he's not!) and more about impacting availability/sharpness tomorrow and Thursday
Hey, bosoxforlife is here. Now it's a chat.
Nasty punchies there by Taylor
He's obv done for the series after this I'd imagine. Seems Venable felt locking game 1 (if he gets this last out) was worth more than a potential 2nd appearance
Oh thank goodness Ctrl+Enter sends msgs, I thought I was going to have mouse it every time, lol
I have no idea what Venable thought he saw there
What was Venable on about?
Can't challenge a check swing
Ya that might be what it was bc I saw nothing to go out there for
54 pitches for Taylor, gutsy
Boom! Got it!
Hey, they won
And with that I'm out of here, enjoy the last two games everyone!
Benetti on the Yanks gm, woo I can pretend my stupid Tigers are still alive in spirit!
Bye, Jon!
Peace, Jon!
I suspect that even if this were to catch on for awhile, at some point a prominent pitcher would get hurt doing this and everyone would back off.
Who's ready for the Mass Pike?
Here comes baseball's Ron Swanson!
Hey, Jason took my line!!
Weird, I was just about to call it a slobberknocker. Maybe he hacked us.
Ya the bullpen day being in-game is more of a playoff thing. Wonder if those 3 Sandy SVs won anybody their fantasy league
Ok fam, I need to cook dinner and do some work with Brendan. There is a non-zero chance Brendan and I pop in to chat during Cubs/Padres depending on how much progress we make on the other stuff. See ya, enjoy this sensational pitching matchup.
Bye, Eric! See you later, hopefully. Also, what's for dinner?
Peace, Eric!!
What a whippy swing from Rice. I love it.
Yeah he can't lay an egg like we saw a few times down the stretch, though mostly in August to be fair
Just testing this because I'm not really seeing questions come in.
B-
It works!
LOL i was going to joke that it's 2 small fanbases
Taylor-esque, so fireman essentially
I know we're a full inning late, but this is true.
Let's open this one up to the group. I'll say Lombard.
Wilyer bomb
I like it.
Ain't that the truth.
Nate Eaton? The guy who batted .400 in the postseason last year?
Yaaaa this has all the makings of a 1-0, 2-1 type game
Yep, that feels right!
Ooh my pizza's here, brb!
I was cleaning up baby barf when this happened.
Ya it'll be forgotten since Riley went boomtown
Lombard making me look smart. What a rocket.
The value of winning game 1 is massive, but I'm w/you that these weren't all great moves. I'm fine pushing Duran for more than 1, but 3 seems crazy. Hader one made ZERO sense to me. Taylor I'm prob the most on board with of the 3 given how frequently they've pushed him >1 IP (though only 3 times more than the 36 pitches he had after 8).
My friend shared a stat w/me that 15 of 16 gm 1 winners have won the 3-gm set, so I get pushing, but there can be overkill (like I said, I wasn't seeing the vision on Hader at all).
I mean, Girardi had a much better view of the play than we did, but I certainly understand having your first instinct be that anything to center is catchable for him.
Would've been a big swing.
it would be classic baseball for the game that screams 1-0 to be a high scoring affair
Volpe being the hero would be very funny.
Just went w/Italian Sausage on this one
career .188 off lefties…
Dang that is a massive one!!! I can't recall seeing a discrepancy that large, either
He makes a lot of high effort plays that might not necessarily impress a computer.
Quite a bit I'd presume. Jazz, Garcia, McMahon in
Wow, back to back swords for Anthony.
Nothing prettier than a curveball then 99 top of the zone
🫂
I think everyone kinda already knows that, though. Some channel it out, but it's pretty rare. And I find the more a celeb/athlete swears they don't check the comments, the more they're deep into them (see also: Swift, Taylor)
Seriously, Rob Friedman must be so psyched with all these checked swing strikeouts.
I really enjoyed how flatly he delivered that last ad read.
me from August on as a Tigers fan……
I'm not sure that I agree, but Statcast is on it.
Already something implemented in the minors and headed MLB in the future, yeah?
Yup. The thing I'm most excited about is that I think the system is going to take us back to a time when the bar for a swing was a lot higher.
I love watching old highlights and seeing check swings from back then. They'd make folks today apoplectic with some that weren't called swings
Willson: Frozen pizza
Didn't think it was a K?
or critiquing Willson for taking it?
Cam dialed!
Ya I lowkey realized that *as* I was sending my first response, my b
Ya I'm a giant pitching nerd, but they have way too large an advantage. I'd like to see more balanced brought back to the hitters.
Maybe lower the mound some if we're not gonna move it back?
I love the looping curves away to righties from Tolle
Hear me out: Make the ball heavier.
I can help with that! (Anyone who knows me IRL knows I've always got my chapstick holstered… can't stand dry lips)
I too always have chapstick in my pocket.
It's more the "how", though. Just too many Ks. I don't find the 3 true outcomes game terribly compelling. The pitch clock and SB changes have helped pace and excitement, but I'd still like to see more
Yup. Balls in play. I just want to see more web gems.
Agreed! We know players get better, faster, stronger, let them flex the defensive prowess more!!!
Thanks T-Mobile.
While 2011-now isn't too disparate, we're a good bit away from the early 2000s: .329 wOBA 2000-10 | .315 since
And yes, as someone who loved the ABS from day-1, I was really excited for it in the playoffs as it was just going to dial the intensity up 10-fold
I assume this is part of the calculus in the minor league testing.
That foul out is giganticcccc
Got to get Tolle into the 5th I think…
Groundball here would be massive. K more likely v. Jones, of course
OR THATTTT!!!
No spoilers!
Stupid Roku delays.
Sorry I'm streaming so I assumed I'm way behind. I'll wait a few beats on big plays
That inning was a microcosm of Durbin's season – terrible start, electric finish
No, no, don't worry about it.
My sister still has cable so she's always a play, play-and-a-half (or multiple pitches in baseball terms) ahead of me
Hey, it's mailbag my pen pal!
Did that McDonald's ad just acknowledge how spicy their Sprite is??? #iykyk
What?!
I asked about pitcher wRC+. No dice.
We takin Tolle out at 75 pitches?
Is the music still playing on the broadcast for anyone else?? This is annoying af
Yeah, what is happening here?
Director is asleep at the wheel
Only a playoff game b/w 2 of the most famous teams in the sport….
This is a long time for it to be going on.
Someone in the truck couldn't find the off button
like SOOO long
Finallyyyy
Someone spilled their Diet Coke on the button
Yes.
It was going for a good 2 batters into the inning
They paid for Epidemic Sound and they're gonna get their use out of it!
Faded it out quickly that time
Great info.
I would love to write about that, but I wouldn't want to get the sound person in trouble. Stuff happens.
I'm sure Twitter is goin bananas over it lol
Nah, I heard things are normal over there.
lol always so chill and neat and cool
Man, it just looks impossible not to chase anything from Schlittler.
Sorry, that was an ugly sentence.
There you go. SUCCESSFUL check swing.
That's progress.
Hiiiiigh stakes move.
Duran has the skillset to erase the ugliness of his regular season with a big post
Similar to Riley with his HR today
That's a tall order.
I see what you did there and I approve, Davy
Nice
every time they do this ad for The Voice, i think they're randomly talking about Riley Greene, especially when Benetti reads 'em
Can we talk about the T-Mobile ad where they say that T-Mobile designed the ABS system? What the absolute what is that?
They designed the baseball on *annnd* and anti-locking braking systems. T-Mobile out here doin big things, who knew?!
Oh man, can still hear that sound effect.
Great effort, Tolle!!! ❤️
spidey senses telling me they should've left in tolle
Dude, you're going to blow your cover.
The Mass Pike was cruising.
Erik Miller had tamped down his BB% issues right before the trade and immediately after (7% BB in Aug) but they came roaring back in September w/a nasty 23% BB
don't like bringing in a lefty reliever for a lefty starter
what planet were the Monstars from?
Only 2 BB-free outings in 8 Sept. app. for Miller
yep…
Ruh roh….
BEN AROZ!!!!
You might have been on to something, Jack.
Jack with the immediate dub
Sorry to the Sox fans
I just had flashbacks to Rich Hill getting pulled for Scott Alexander in 2018…
Marlins Man is… somethin
I'm not sure lovable is one of them.
Anyone watch The Paper? I've seen 98437932748 ads for it today, but never seen an ep
I watched the first episode or two. It was bad.
He's better than Hample, but it's a vomit v. poop type sitch
Yaaaa, tough for a Jays fan
The queen!
Yeah hard not to see it that way
Yeah, the ads are NOT doing what you want for that kind of show.
How are Buster and college coach goin?
Of The Paper?
And on cue they twist the knife on y'all
The broadcast is speculating that maybe Anthony's hand isn't feeling great.
Amazing. Monasterio goes down exactly like Anthony did both times.
Place will explode with a punchie here
I'd go the other way. Every check swing is a take.
This would be my lean. I want fewer Ks!
Without the elite seasons, though… at least not yet
It feels really early for that to me.
Cam too lit!
Yeah, I liked it when he gave up fewer than zero runs.
Tough crowd!
Yeah, I've seen the sun five days in a row. It's not bright anymore and I can stare right at it.
He also wouldn't have drained his tank in 6 nor would he have faced 9 guys who can go bridge. Just a much different game. If they were trained to 8-9 consistently, they'd be able to, but they're told go full bore from pitch 1
Maybe they should check and see if Schlittler can hit too.
Red Rolfe sounds like it could be a variety of rice.
Or a KIng punchie!
Rolfe was a G! He's got some banger seasons. I make a card for him each year in Out of the Park Baseball and that 1939 was really sharp!
edited
Honestly, I think it depends on the pitcher. The biomechanics involved are so individualized.
I'd generally think velo but don't know for sure
Think it was the same guy.
Ya I think Davy nailed it that's pitcher-specific
who's going to go deeper into games than Schlittler these yoffs?
More Schlitt!
Well there's your leadoff HR…..
Wow Girardi called it with Schlitt. I dunno about this
And PCA was very involved.
It's just for Willson, ya?
What is wrong with the BOS-NYY broadcast right now? It's like zoomed in to the top left of the screen.
Nevermind…
Are other people seeing this?
Yes I see your msg, Davy
My screen is fine
So weird. On my TV, like they cropped off the bottom and right-most quarter of the screen. The score bug takes up nearly half the screen horizontally.
Oh I'm an idiot, thought you meant you msg
What's the over-under on first inning homers for the Pads?
117 for Schlitt
Meanwhile B2B HRs for SD and Petco is hoppin!
He had a 130 wRC+ this season. Just don't look at the peripherals.
I think that's less about Boston and more about Schlittler.
I'd say you're getting a bit too cute.
I'm not going to look it up at this time of night, but I would imagine so!
Word.
Now you're thinking.
@cynaocitta – Repeating a stat I mentioned earlier, but game 1 winners are 15-1 in the 3-game series era. Just start your best. Wayyyy too cute to "save" 'em IMO
Yeah, I think they've been doing this all year.
Uh oh Sox
Thought for a second we might see someone challenge Abreu's arm.
Looks like he's back down?
It'd be more than a little crazy
Ya akin to Houston going to Hader, just not worth it IMO
6 of 8*
Rice is a problem
No, looks the sale was earlier, in May. And then final MLB approval came later, in August.
Honestly, I watch a lot of Peacock and I generally think it works really well.
They tried to tell us.
This is a fair point.
edited
Oh man, I don't know. Paul? Jack?
Feel like I'd want a bit more of a sure thing
How cute do you want to get considering the stakes?
As good as he's been, just feels like I don't want to allow a rally or any momentum at all
If it backfires, you will never fall asleep again.
On the other hand, if they knock in one of these runs right now, why not put in a position player?
It was gorgeous.
Man, I worry about Bello's control right now.
I had the sound on the other game. What'd they say?
not getting helped by the offense
Excellent choice.
Ohh, that's really interesting. Where'd you hear that?
I appreciate you all.
BEN MF'N AROZ!!!
Ok, I'm officially only watching Cubs-Padres at this point.
Ya this got super-sideways
Yep, BOS-NYY is muted on the iPad w/CHC-SDP taking over the computer
This is a good question, and I am absolutely not the right person to answer it, but I will take a guess and say that the answer is "Yes, but it would take a TON of work from our dev team, who already do a TON of work."
I'm so sorry. We've all been there.
Friends, we are going to close out the chat now, both because the eight o'clock game is over and because the baby monitor is telling me that any minute I'm going to have to spend some time bouncing a six-month-old on a yoga ball.
Thanks for coming out, y'all, I had a great time!!
Thank you all for spending this time with us. I don't have my own chat, and I look forward to this one every year.
Sponsor Us on Patreon
Give a Gift Subscription
Effectively Wild Subreddit
Effectively Wild Wiki
Apple Podcasts Feed
Spotify Feed
YouTube Playlist
Facebook Group
Bluesky Account
Twitter Account
Get Our Merch!
Dan Szymborski
Jay Jaffe
