The FanGraphs 2025 Staff Predictions
After an offseason marked by big free agent deals, ballpark and RSN uncertainty, and a whole lot of handwringing concerning the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 2025 season is almost upon us; we made it. And on this, the morning of Opening Day, we engage in our annual tradition of asking our staff to open themselves up to public ridicule by trying to predict the year in baseball. Some of these predictions will prove to be prescient; others will make their forecaster feel a little silly. Such is the prognostication business.
I asked the staff to predict the playoff field, as well as the pennant and World Series winners, and the individual award recipients. Folks from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs weighed in. Here are the results. Please note that the tables at the end showing the full writer ballots are sortable.
American League
American League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 12 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 |
| Seattle Mariners | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| Houston Astros | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 15 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Athletics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 |
| Minnesota Twins | 8 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Kansas City Royals | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Chicago White Sox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
American League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| New York Yankees | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
American League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 12 |
| Texas Rangers | 5 |
| Houston Astros | 2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 |
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American League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 7 |
| Seattle Mariners | 6 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Boston Red Sox | 2 |
| Kansas City Royals | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League
National League West
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 22 |
| San Diego Padres | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| San Francisco Giants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League Central
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League East
| Team | Division | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Wild Card 3 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 12 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 26 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 11 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 26 |
| New York Mets | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 23 |
| Washington Nationals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Miami Marlins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
National League One Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
National League Two Seed
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 12 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 11 |
| New York Mets | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
Pennant and World Series Winners
American League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox | 9 |
| Texas Rangers | 4 |
| Seattle Mariners | 3 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 2 |
| Minnesota Twins | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Houston Astros | 1 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers | 1 |
National League Pennant Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 15 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 4 |
| Atlanta Braves | 3 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
World Series Matchups
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
World Series Winner
| Team | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 13 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 3 |
| Boston Red Sox | 3 |
| Atlanta Braves | 2 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 2 |
| New York Mets | 1 |
| Texas Rangers | 1 |
| New York Yankees | 1 |
Individual Awards
American League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 9 |
| Aaron Judge | 3 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 2 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 2 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 2 |
| Alex Bregman | 1 |
| Junior Caminero | 1 |
| Rafael Devers | 1 |
| Riley Greene | 1 |
| Wyatt Langford | 1 |
| Cal Raleigh | 1 |
| José Ramírez | 1 |
| Mike Trout | 1 |
American League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet | 7 |
| Jacob deGrom | 4 |
| Logan Gilbert | 4 |
| Cole Ragans | 4 |
| Tarik Skubal | 4 |
| Hunter Brown | 1 |
| Bryan Woo | 1 |
| Framber Valdez | 1 |
American League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Kristian Campbell | 5 |
| Jackson Jobe | 5 |
| Jasson Domínguez | 4 |
| Jacob Wilson | 4 |
| Roman Anthony | 2 |
| Cam Smith | 2 |
| Jac Caglianone | 1 |
| Jack Leiter | 1 |
| Kumar Rocker | 1 |
| Alan Roden | 1 |
National League MVP
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | 8 |
| Juan Soto | 6 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 5 |
| William Contreras | 2 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2 |
| Corbin Carroll | 1 |
| Jackson Chourio | 1 |
| Kyle Tucker | 1 |
National League Cy Young
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 13 |
| Zack Wheeler | 6 |
| Cristopher Sánchez | 2 |
| Logan Webb | 2 |
| Corbin Burnes | 1 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 1 |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 1 |
National League RoY
| Player | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dylan Crews | 9 |
| Roki Sasaki | 9 |
| Matt Shaw | 3 |
| Drake Baldwin | 2 |
| Chase Dollander | 1 |
| Logan Henderson | 1 |
| Rhett Lowder | 1 |
Staff Predictions – Full Ballots
American League Full Writer Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | SEA | KCR | BOS | NYY | HOU | MIN | BOS | KCR |
| Ben Clemens | SEA | DET | BOS | BAL | MIN | TEX | BOS | SEA |
| Chad Young | SEA | MIN | BOS | TEX | BAL | KCR | BOS | SEA |
| Dan Szymborski | HOU | DET | BAL | NYY | BOS | SEA | HOU | BAL |
| David Gerth | HOU | KCR | BOS | TEX | BAL | DET | BOS | HOU |
| David Laurila | HOU | DET | BAL | KCR | BOS | MIN | DET | BAL |
| Davy Andrews | TEX | MIN | BOS | BAL | HOU | SEA | BOS | TEX |
| Eric Longenhagen | TEX | DET | TBR | BOS | MIN | KCR | DET | TEX |
| Esteban Rivera | TEX | DET | NYY | SEA | BAL | BOS | NYY | TEX |
| Jake Mailhot | SEA | DET | BOS | BAL | TEX | HOU | BOS | SEA |
| James Fegan | TEX | DET | BOS | BAL | KCR | SEA | BOS | TEX |
| Jason Martinez | LAA | KCR | BOS | TOR | SEA | MIN | BOS | KCR |
| Jay Jaffe | TEX | DET | BOS | BAL | SEA | HOU | BOS | TEX |
| Jeff Zimmerman | HOU | KCR | TOR | TEX | MIN | NYY | HOU | TOR |
| Joe Orrico | TEX | MIN | TBR | BOS | HOU | KCR | TEX | TBR |
| Jon Becker | TEX | CLE | BOS | NYY | BAL | HOU | BOS | TEX |
| Jordan Rosenblum | SEA | MIN | NYY | HOU | TBR | BOS | SEA | NYY |
| Justin Mason | TEX | MIN | NYY | BOS | KCR | HOU | NYY | TEX |
| Kiri Oler | TEX | KCR | BOS | BAL | SEA | CLE | TEX | BOS |
| Leo Morgenstern | SEA | MIN | BAL | TEX | HOU | NYY | BAL | MIN |
| Matt Martell | TEX | DET | NYY | BOS | SEA | KCR | TEX | NYY |
| Meg Rowley | SEA | MIN | BOS | NYY | KCR | TEX | BOS | SEA |
| Michael Baumann | TEX | DET | BOS | SEA | HOU | BAL | TEX | BOS |
| Michael Rosen | SEA | CLE | BAL | TEX | BOS | LAA | BAL | SEA |
| Mike Podhorzer | SEA | DET | BOS | NYY | TEX | BAL | BOS | SEA |
| Paul Sporer | TEX | MIN | TBR | HOU | BOS | DET | TEX | TBR |
American League Individual Awards
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Aaron Judge | Garrett Crochet | Jasson Domínguez |
| Ben Clemens | Rafael Devers | Tarik Skubal | Roman Anthony |
| Chad Young | Alex Bregman | Garrett Crochet | Cam Smith |
| Dan Szymborski | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jacob Wilson |
| David Gerth | Junior Caminero | Hunter Brown | Jasson Domínguez |
| David Laurila | Riley Greene | Logan Gilbert | Jackson Jobe |
| Davy Andrews | Bobby Witt Jr. | Cole Ragans | Kristian Campbell |
| Eric Longenhagen | Bobby Witt Jr. | Framber Valdez | Kristian Campbell |
| Esteban Rivera | Aaron Judge | Jacob deGrom | Jac Caglianone |
| Jake Mailhot | Bobby Witt Jr. | Logan Gilbert | Jacob Wilson |
| James Fegan | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jackson Jobe |
| Jason Martinez | Mike Trout | Garrett Crochet | Kristian Campbell |
| Jay Jaffe | Bobby Witt Jr. | Cole Ragans | Kristian Campbell |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Logan Gilbert | Alan Roden |
| Joe Orrico | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Jacob deGrom | Cam Smith |
| Jon Becker | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jacob Wilson |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Aaron Judge | Tarik Skubal | Kumar Rocker |
| Justin Mason | Bobby Witt Jr. | Tarik Skubal | Roman Anthony |
| Kiri Oler | Gunnar Henderson | Jacob deGrom | Jacob Wilson |
| Leo Morgenstern | Gunnar Henderson | Jacob deGrom | Jackson Jobe |
| Matt Martell | Cal Raleigh | Logan Gilbert | Jasson Domínguez |
| Meg Rowley | José Ramírez | Cole Ragans | Kristian Campbell |
| Michael Baumann | Yordan Alvarez | Tarik Skubal | Jackson Jobe |
| Michael Rosen | Wyatt Langford | Bryan Woo | Jack Leiter |
| Mike Podhorzer | Bobby Witt Jr. | Garrett Crochet | Jasson Domínguez |
| Paul Sporer | Yordan Alvarez | Cole Ragans | Jackson Jobe |
National League Full Writer Ballots
| Writer | West | Central | East | WC1 | WC2 | WC3 | 1 Seed | 2 Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Ben Clemens | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | NYM | SFG | LAD | ATL |
| Chad Young | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | PHI | MIL | LAD | ATL |
| Dan Szymborski | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | ATL | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| David Gerth | LAD | MIL | NYM | ARI | ATL | PHI | LAD | NYM |
| David Laurila | LAD | CIN | PHI | ATL | ARI | MIL | LAD | PHI |
| Davy Andrews | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL |
| Eric Longenhagen | LAD | CIN | PHI | ATL | ARI | MIL | LAD | PHI |
| Esteban Rivera | LAD | MIL | ATL | PHI | ARI | NYM | LAD | ATL |
| Jake Mailhot | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | ARI | NYM | LAD | ATL |
| James Fegan | LAD | MIL | NYM | PHI | ATL | ARI | LAD | NYM |
| Jason Martinez | ARI | CIN | NYM | LAD | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI |
| Jay Jaffe | LAD | MIL | ATL | NYM | ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAD | STL | PHI | ATL | NYM | SDP | LAD | PHI |
| Joe Orrico | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | ARI | PHI | LAD | ATL |
| Jon Becker | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | NYM | ATL | LAD | PHI |
| Jordan Rosenblum | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Justin Mason | LAD | CHC | PHI | ATL | ARI | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Kiri Oler | LAD | MIL | PHI | ATL | ARI | SDP | LAD | PHI |
| Leo Morgenstern | LAD | CHC | ATL | NYM | PHI | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Matt Martell | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | ATL | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Meg Rowley | LAD | CHC | PHI | ATL | ARI | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Michael Baumann | LAD | CHC | PHI | ARI | ATL | NYM | LAD | PHI |
| Michael Rosen | LAD | MIL | PHI | NYM | ATL | SDP | LAD | PHI |
| Mike Podhorzer | LAD | CHC | ATL | PHI | NYM | ARI | LAD | ATL |
| Paul Sporer | LAD | CHC | ATL | ARI | NYM | PHI | LAD | ATL |
National League Individual Awards
| Writer | MVP | Cy Young | RoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Ben Clemens | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Chad Young | Kyle Tucker | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Dan Szymborski | Shohei Ohtani | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
| David Gerth | Elly De La Cruz | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| David Laurila | Jackson Chourio | Logan Webb | Chase Dollander |
| Davy Andrews | Elly De La Cruz | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Eric Longenhagen | William Contreras | Cristopher Sánchez | Drake Baldwin |
| Esteban Rivera | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Jake Mailhot | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| James Fegan | William Contreras | Logan Webb | Rhett Lowder |
| Jason Martinez | Elly De La Cruz | Corbin Burnes | Dylan Crews |
| Jay Jaffe | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Cristopher Sánchez | Logan Henderson |
| Joe Orrico | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Matt Shaw |
| Jon Becker | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Roki Sasaki |
| Justin Mason | Shohei Ohtani | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
| Kiri Oler | Juan Soto | Zack Wheeler | Roki Sasaki |
| Leo Morgenstern | Juan Soto | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Matt Shaw |
| Matt Martell | Corbin Carroll | Zack Wheeler | Drake Baldwin |
| Meg Rowley | Elly De La Cruz | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
| Michael Baumann | Shohei Ohtani | Paul Skenes | Matt Shaw |
| Michael Rosen | Juan Soto | Paul Skenes | Dylan Crews |
| Mike Podhorzer | Elly De La Cruz | Tyler Glasnow | Roki Sasaki |
| Paul Sporer | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Zack Wheeler | Dylan Crews |
Pennant and World Series Winners
| Writer | AL Pennant Winner | NL Pennant Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ariel Cohen | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Ben Clemens | Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Chad Young | Baltimore Orioles | Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves |
| Dan Szymborski | Houston Astros | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| David Gerth | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox |
| David Laurila | Baltimore Orioles | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Davy Andrews | Minnesota Twins | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Eric Longenhagen | Detroit Tigers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Esteban Rivera | New York Yankees | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jake Mailhot | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| James Fegan | Boston Red Sox | Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox |
| Jason Martinez | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox |
| Jay Jaffe | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jeff Zimmerman | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Joe Orrico | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Jon Becker | Boston Red Sox | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Jordan Rosenblum | Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Justin Mason | Texas Rangers | Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies |
| Kiri Oler | Texas Rangers | Atlanta Braves | Texas Rangers |
| Leo Morgenstern | Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Matt Martell | New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees |
| Meg Rowley | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Michael Baumann | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Michael Rosen | Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | New York Mets |
| Mike Podhorzer | Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Paul Sporer | Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Well, now we know what everyone is asking Jason Martinez about in his next RosterResource chat.
Hell yeah, Jason! Love some bold predictions.
There’s bold and then there’s “I picked the Angels to win the division when no one else picked them to make the playoffs”…
Michael Rosen has the Angels as the 3rd wild-card. But Martinez is also the only one to not pick the Dodgers to win the division, but he does have the Dodgers winning the NL pennant.
Something about Martinez and LA?
No I missed one. One other playoff prediction…
Heck yeah. Next Friday. I’m ready.
Michael Rosen: Ball Knower
Some of these MVP picks are really something. I don’t see a path to Cal Raleigh (playing time as a C, also not an elite hitter), or Alex Bregman (declining bat and defense) to even get remotely close to MVP status in an AL that includes Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt, and Gunnar Henderson. The NL field is Shohei and everyone else.
Also kind of shocked only 11 people picked the Yankees to make the playoffs. Sure they’ve had some substantial injuries, but in a 6 playoff format with no elite teams, I think they get in. I’m also shocked about 60% picked the Red Sox to win the AL East. Granted the AL East doesn’t have a favorite. But I feel that the Red Sox have legit concerns in their rotation (Fitts can’t miss bats, Sean Newcomb), a very questionable bullpen and 5-9 in their lineup has a ton of question marks (does Story/Rafaela hit, Campbell growing pains, etc.). I have Baltimore winning.
Also I like the Alan Roden pick for RoY even though I think he basically has zero chance to win.
I can squint and see the case for Raleigh, but yeah, it would be surprising if it actually happened.
There’s a lot less/very different “narrative voting” that happens now — writers aren’t necessarily starting from “who won their division, now let’s pick the guy who we think is responsible”. But I think if Bregman puts up a great year, and Boston takes the division, you might see some of that, viewing him as the difference maker.
The one that I really don’t see is Raffy Devers as an everyday DH unless he puts up Shohei numbers and Boston wins AND Bregman is only OK to good. I’m pretty comfortable saying that’s highly unlikely.
The DH problem, to an extent, also applies to Yordan, but he actually could very well put up the massive numbers necessary at the plate.
There’s pretty clearly a top three in the AL (the three you mentioned) and there’s a gap before you get to second tier guys (who I’d put as Ramirez, Vlad Jr., Yordan, Julio, Greene). Then you’re wishcasting on health (Trout, Correa, Buxton, Seager, etc.) or youth (Caminero, Langford, Butler, etc.)
Wait, the Red Sox are counting on Sean Newcomb to start games for them? Sean Newcomb of the career 4.93 BB/9?
Yes, but seems like the plan is for him to take 2-3 starts until Bello is ready. Giolito and Crawford are further behind, it seems. Yankees are using Carlos Carrasco as their #5 until Schmidt is back, but seems like they may skip him for a start or use him as a long man until they need a 5th starter.
All I can say is that Newcomb is lucky that the three-batter minimum applies to batters faced rather than batters retired. If not for that, I genuinely believe he would someday record an inning in which he walks nine hitters in a row.
I think the Red Sox are the best AL team but I am slightly disappointed that this is now a majority opinion rather than an edgy call.
I guess the Gerrit Cole injury got people’s attention.
Maybe my edgy call is that the Orioles will win the division, but I think the Red Sox are better built for the playoffs.
The AL looks pretty flat in terms of the best teams. No super teams here, and most of the better ones (Orioles, Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, Astros) have at least one massive hole.
Red Sox even being considered the best team in the AL is probably a result of the 6 team playoff tbh. No team went for the jugular this year in the AL. I still think the Orioles are better. I think they bludgeon teams and their pitching holds up just enough to win 90ish games.
I also think the Red Sox have very real questions in each group (SP, RP, lineup) that people are overlooking because they have potential to be quite good and just seem to be trendy to pick. I can see them winning 94 games because everything clicks, but I can also see them looking to buy *and* sell at the deadline because things went wrong. High variance team. Meanwhile the Yankees just continue to chug along. The Yankees get counted out quite a lot but there always in the thick of things. The ALC is the ALC and the ALW is the ALW. Low variance teams that get a bit of luck will make the playoffs.
I think the AL contenders all have way more variance than the NL contenders do. It’s pretty easy to see scenarios that break either way. I think that’s because even the front end contenders are relying pretty heavily on dudes with short-to-no-track-records in the majors and/or guys with spotty health records.
The NL field feels more or less already decided — the three NL East contenders in some order, the Dodgers and D-backs, and whoever emerges from the scuffle in the NL Central. There’s one vote total for a NL Central wild card among all of the voters. And those East/West teams are largely populated with proven performers.
I don’t think it’s a given the Mets make the playoffs. The rotation has too many question marks. Clay Holmes is their #1 starter. If Clay Holmes were the Yankees #1 starter we’d say they’d win like 70 games. Edwin Diaz looks shaky (compared to vintage Edwin Diaz) and the rest of the bullpen is just OK. I also think Juan Soto just had a career year. He got to play in a tiny RF in Yankee Stadium hiding his poor defense, hit behind the best RHH season we’ve seen in like 100 years, and he played in a stadium that is friendly to LHB. I don’t think he’s a true talent 180 wRC+. Probably 150-160 and 5-6 win player. I’d be shocked if he were a 8 win player or whatever going forward.
Holmes may be the opening day starter, but is really their 3rd or 4th starter when (if) starters are healthy. (behind Senga, Manaea, maybe Montas)
Holmes is only starting opening day because of Manaea being injured and them taking it slow with Senga. I think this should be the best bullpen they’ve had in a while.
Same on the Red Sox. I love much of their current construction and the fact that they’ve got some monster reinforcement potential
Yeah, picking Bregman to be AL MVP is pretty out there. Even at his peak you would have a tough argument with guys like Trout being in his prime as well. And pretty much no one thinks Bregman is still at his peak.
But I guess its more fun than everyone just picking Judge and Witt Jr.
Whoever had Alan Roden winning AL RoY, I love you
it’s Jeff Zimmerman.
I love you, too.
Call me a homer but I have the Mets beating the Red Sox in the World Series.
I love this, and hope the series turns on a wild pitch and error in game 6!
I understand the concerns about the Guardians. But holy smokes, I think they’re being undervalued here.
I think the Twins are clearly better. Better offense, better SP. Bullpens probably similar? I think they’re just kind of boring. Also the rotation outside of the top 2 is meh. It’s a real shame that Triston McKenzie couldn’t take that next step.. or continue his prior success for that matter..
The Twins have the most talented roster in the division IMO. The problem is that their whole team is made of glass.
Season just started and Royce Lewis is already on the IL.
I also think it’s the Twins. Obvious downside risk because of injury to Buxton and others, but the pitching is great.
Lots of people trying to pick a breakout from the Tigers before it happens. I don’t think they get worse but I also don’t think they’re likely to be much better.
Last year only 2 of 25 writers had the Guardians making the playoffs. This year it’s 3 of 26. Progress!!!
Seriosuly, it does seem weird. Yeah they have holes but they seem at least as good as any other team in the division not named White Sox.
Leo and I are hanging hardcore (I have the same WS matchup and result) but also Jeff Z. is invited to the party (for picking my lowly Jays to advance to the WS). We will decide amongst us who is bringing wine and babka (or ring dings and Pepsi for a more upscale affair)
Wow, feels like everybody just turned up the pressure on the Red Sox all of the sudden! Now it feels like there is a chance for them to disappoint us instead of surprising us.
Man, all this Red Sox love this past week (many on FG, MLB, and ESPN all calling on them to win the league) is making me nervously optimistic.
For the first time in a long time these picks are interesting which is great for baseball. Pick against the Dodgers in the NL West at your own risk, but every other division has 3 or 4 legitimate contenders.
I don’t think the gap between the Rays and Jays is as large as the playoff picks seem to imply. I expect a 4-team race, if only because ONE team is likely to have bad luck and or injuries and be out of it. By the same logic, one of the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds is likely to be in the playoff chase.
So basically start the clock on Witt Jr missing the season due to injury….
(sorry, I have been a Bills and Expos fan my whole life. Disappointment is all I know)
OK, I don’t know what one member of your staff was smoking when they said the Angels will win the AL West, but I want some of that stuff. Or, alternatively, I didn’t know that Roger Lodge was on your staff (I know, most non-Angels’ fans won’t understand the reference).
EDIT: I didn’t scroll thru the entire article to see that it was someone named Jason Martinez who picked the Angels. And also picked TOR as the #1 WC! And the Dbacks to win the division over the Dodgers! Ok, the last one may have a very, very slim chance of happening. But the others? No way.
He probably regretted making that pick as soon as he saw zombie Tim Anderson hitting fifth poor, poor Mike Trout.
Buccos in 7 over the Tigers in the Rust Belt Classic Series. Chandler vs. Jobe in Game 7. You heard it here (and will only hear it here) first.
I think there is a decent chance the Pirates make the playoffs. Not a great chance since the Dodgers, D-Backs, Phillies, Braves, Mets, Padres, Cubs, and Brewers all look better than them on paper. But they are a young team so improvement is possible and if they do get into the playoffs the rotation will be super dangerous.
My optimism wavers. And especially given the utter failure of the organization to do anything of substance in the offseason beyond (checks notes) Spencer Horwitz.
On the right day, they can look like a playoff outfit. But they need a lot of young players to take a sizable leap to make the playoffs. They’re in the right division though.
I’m picking the D-Backs to win it all, baby!
Good to know Fangraphs membership money is being spent on cocaine for the staffers, with some of these absurd predictions.