2025 Positional Power Rankings: Starting Rotation (No. 16-30)

A frontliner and a pack of no. 4 starters. Peralta hasn’t quite been a top-of-the-scale arm, with several good-not-great seasons to this point. His 3.49 ERA is 17th since 2021 (minimum 500 innings), and his 1.10 WHIP is even better, ranking 11th. He is a strikeout force but he deals with bouts of inconsistency with his command and control.

Until Woodruff returns to form – assuming he does – there is a substantial drop-off after Peralta. Woodruff is still building up innings as of this writing, so he likely won’t be ready to start the season. Will he return to being an ace immediately, or will he need time to round into form? Myers’ oblique injury shouldn’t cost him a ton of time, as he’s already working his way back and might only miss a couple weeks of April. He rode an 81% LOB rate to a surprisingly strong rookie campaign (3.00 ERA, 2.2 WAR), as his core skills look more fit for a low-to-mid 4.00s guy in the middle of the rotation. He was missing more bats in spring, so if that’s something he can bring into the regular season, maybe he can work another sub-4.00 ERA campaign.

Quintana, Civale, and Cortes are essentially a good-better-best version of the same core pitcher: a quality mid-rotation guy who can reliably go five to six innings for 25-30 starts. Over the last three seasons, their SIERA totals are 4.38, 4.04, and 3.85. Cortes has shown the most upside of the group, while Quintana has the lengthiest track record. Both Cortes and Civale miss more bats but have some long ball issues, while Q needs his 0.77 HR/9 to counterbalance his sub-20% strikeout rates.

Hall and Ashby, once premier prospects with lofty expectations, both suffered lat injuries this spring, derailing them yet again. The 26-year-old lefties have somewhat incomplete grades as major leaguers because of their persistent health problems, but it’s looking more and more like the bullpen will be their home if and when they are healthy again.

McClanahan suffered a triceps injury on March 22, and while the immediate fear was that it would result in him missing significant time, testing indicates that it is a nerve issue in the triceps area, which will only result in a minimal IL stay. McClanahan is expected to have about 150 innings in the tank this year, and this injury shouldn’t impact that too much. While their backfill isn’t nearly as good as McClanahan, the Rays will still bring a competent starting five to the table on Opening Day, with the injury now securing Littell’s spot. He’s a classic innings-eating fifth starter. If he can come anywhere close to replicating last year’s 3.63 ERA/1.25 WHIP in 156.1 innings, it’ll be a resounding win for the Rays.

It’s an open question about how difficult it will be to pitch in Steinbrenner Field — a minor league version of Yankee Stadium plopped down in the sweltering Florida heat — compared to the Trop, which is an unquestioned pitcher-friendly venue. That uncertainty aside, there is still upper crust talent here, with Pepiot, Bradley, and Baz having all carried substantial prospect hype and all showing some success at the big league level already. Bradley has the widest range of outcomes of the group and that includes legitimate frontline upside. Just a quick look at his Pitching+ components underscores that volatility; he has a 108 Stuff+ (tied for sixth highest in baseball) and a 93 Location+ (95th of 96 starters with 130-plus innings). He was a different guy home and away, with a 24% K-BB in 72 innings at the Trop and just a 13% mark in 66 innings on the road. This new park could be a hurdle for Bradley. Pepiot has similarly excellent stuff (107 Stuff+) with quite a bit better control than Bradley (101 Location+), which no doubt helped him when he took his show on the road, as he only dropped from 19% to 15% K-BB home vs. road, while his ERA was actually better. He will get the Opening Day start in McClanahan’s stead.

Baz leveraged a .229 BABIP to outrun his modest 13% K-BB rate en route to a 3.06 ERA and 4.07 FIP. Injuries have slowed Baz’s ascent since he was the 11th-ranked prospect our 2022 Top 100. Now ready for his first full season as a big leaguer, he surely hopes to recapture the electric stuff we saw throughout his minor league career and during his first 40 big league innings (28.9% K rate). Rasmussen stood out in a bullpen role last season, running a 25% K-BB and allowing no home runs in 28.2 innings. He’s excellent on a per-inning basis, but how many will he get? Perhaps his previous high of 146 innings is reachable this year if he stays healthy. Boyle is your classic live arm with no control who the Rays take a chance on in the hopes of finding a gem. Rock and Seymour are classic 45-FV Rays prospects who you can easily see the team maximizing before they rip off 80 innings with a 3.00 ERA out of nowhere.

Can I just run back last year’s preview here? The Cardinals literally didn’t add anyone. I guess they are replacing Kyle Gibson with Erick Fedde from last year’s Opening Day rotation, but that’s functionally the same. St. Louis was fine last year, ranking 14th in starter ERA.

Gray’s 5.2% HR/FB rate from 2023 seemed primed to regress and push his major league-best 0.4 HR/9 back up toward his 0.9 career mark, and that’s exactly what happened, as those rates jumped to 14.3% and 1.1, respectively. Still, he mitigated the damage of those extra homers with the league’s third-best K-BB rate at 24.4%. More quality work over about 28 starts is expected again this year. There is a jump down in talent from Gray to the rest of the group, but they all kind of cluster together: low-strikeout arms leaning on the benefits of Busch Stadium and a solid defense behind them (ninth in OAA at 15).

Fedde returned from the KBO and enjoyed the best season of his career, including getting off the White Sox with a midseason trade. He fits this rotation’s aesthetic perfectly and he immediately meshed with St. Louis’ vibe, posting a 4.05 FIP after the trade. Is it time for the full season of Pallante? He took 20 turns in the rotation last year and did his best work in that role, posting a 3.56 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 111 innings. He’s a groundball artist who keeps the homers at bay, so he’s able to find success despite a meager 9% K-BB. It’s been two tough seasons in a row for Mikolas, as the ball has lived in play or over the fence. If you aren’t going to strike any one out (16.4% since 2023), you have to suppress hits very well (which is of course harder to do the more contact you allow) or keep the ball in the park. Mikolas didn’t excel at either during his successful run, but he had a 19% strikeout rate, and those extra points are crucial when the margins are this small.

Liberatore beat out Matz for the fifth starter’s role, though he may just be the younger version of Matz, a low-to-mid 4.00s ERA with hot streaks interrupted by multi-home run meltdown starts. McGreevy and Mathews both garnered attention this spring, eventually falling short of making the team. They should have all of the non-Gray pitchers in this rotation on notice, but I’m not sure St. Louis will necessarily get them into the rotation as soon as they’re ready. McGreevy impressed in a 23-inning stint at the end of last season, flexing the premium command and control that will be his signature. Mathews carries much more upside as someone who can put up Gray-level impact. He ranked 32nd on our Top 100 Prospects list as a kitchen sink lefty who improved his velocity as a pro and now projects to have mid-rotation upside.

If we had run these articles in February, the Mets would almost certainly have been on Ben’s side of the rankings as a top 15 club, but injuries to Manaea (oblique) and Montas (lat) took a chunk out of both of their projections. If Manaea can recapture the mechanics that fueled his second-half surge last year, he will smash this forecast, but we can’t just ignore the 1,000-plus innings of low-4.00s ERA on his ledger prior to 2024. Senga essentially missed all of 2024 (he threw 5.1 innings), so there are still some questions about who he is as a major leaguer. The talent is there to headline the rotation, especially if he keeps the walks in check.

Holmes’ transition from reliever to starter has been the talk of spring training, as his newly developed kick changeup helped him to a 31.9% strikeout rate in 19.1 innings, earning him the Opening Day nod. Will this be the year that Peterson works as a full-time starter? He has slowly added volume in the last couple years, with innings totals of 106, 111, and 121. He has a 3.88 FIP in that time, and if he pitches like that this year, there’s no reason he can’t exceed the projections on his innings total. Canning flashed tantalizing stuff throughout his time with the Angels, but his career 1.6 HR/9 has always made finding consistent success an uphill climb. A sharp spring has generated some excitement around him, though it will always come back to the long ball. An 0.9 HR/9 in 10 innings in the Grapefruit League isn’t enough to convince me he has fixed anything, but I love the 37.8% K-BB and 63.2% groundball rates that have come with it, and he’s definitely back on my radar.

The early-season injuries give Megill an early shot in the rotation, as he, Canning, and Peterson will essentially be showcasing to stay there once Manaea returns. I’m not so sure Montas has enough to push any of the three if they are all succeeding. This depth does mean that the Mets haven’t had to tap Sproat, their top prospect, to backfill the injuries, which is good — he could use more seasoning at Triple-A and can then position himself as a summer reinforcement.

This is a rotation with staying power, and if the Blue Jays can avoid the injury bug, they can get 28-plus starts from each of their top five. And they’ll need it, too, as the depth is sparse. They have four bankable vets and a 29-year-old who threw 133 innings last season. Berríos is now two full seasons clear of his weird 2022, which started with him finishing just a third of an inning on Opening Day and never got on track, as he posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 172 innings. He immediately snapped back to form with a pair of Berríosian seasons: mid-to-high 3.00s ERA, sub-1.20s WHIP. This is a pivotal year for Gausman. His 21% strikeout rate last year was far and away his lowest since 2019; regaining the effectiveness of his splitter could help it recover into the 31% range he showed the year before. He still brute force volumed his way to a 3-WAR campaign, but that’s still a significant dip from the 5-WAR level he lived at from 2021-23.

Bassitt is also looking to regain his stuff (perhaps former Mets teammate Scherzer can help him find that form). An uncharacteristic 9% walk rate and .333 BABIP saddled Bassitt with a terrible 1.46 WHIP last year, but he was able to consistently dodge too much trouble and netted a 4.16 ERA in 171 innings. His stuff has looked sharper this spring, though it will be about holding it start-to-start, rather than just flashing quality. It’s hard not to chalk up Francis’ success almost exclusively to his microscopic .211 BABIP. I’m not saying he did nothing to earn it, just that it’s likely unrepeatable, and thus we’re left with a solid-but-unspectacular 17% K-BB and 1.5 HR/9. That screams a low-to-mid 4.00s ERA to me, which is right where the projections have it unless he’s got another sub-.230 BABIP in the chamber.

Scherzer’s health is waning at 40, but he’s still good when he’s upright. He is committed to playing through a thumb issue that seems to crop up as he gets deeper into his starts, though you’d never know he was dealing with anything by looking at this spring numbers (37% K-BB, 1.38 ERA, 0.46 WHIP in 13 innings). It seems like that’s just going to be how it is as he finishes out his career: quality work with inconsistent availability. Rodríguez is straddling the starter/reliever line and I’m worried things are starting to teeter toward the latter. The problem is that Toronto lacks depth, so even if they want to move him there, he’s their sixth man. Meanwhile, Bloss ranked 66th on our Top 100 and should eventually find his way into the backend of this rotation. While they may turn to Rodríguez for one-off starts when needed, Bloss is a better fit to take over if a long-term spot opens up.

Imanaga’s second stateside season will be very interesting. He opened his MLB career with an 0.84 ERA in his first nine starts, allowing just three home runs, which ran counter to the expectations from his career in Japan. Turns out, it was more of a hot run than a fundamental change, as the homers eventually came in droves; Imanaga posted a 1.8 HR/9 in his last 20 starts. He still had a 3.84 ERA during those 120 innings, as a 1.07 WHIP helped him avoid crushing multi-run homers. Imanaga joins Robbie Ray (2021) and Justin Verlander (2019) as the only three pitchers with a 1.4-plus HR/9 and sub-3.00 ERA in 150-plus innings since 2000; only six others managed a 3.50 or better ERA in that same timeframe.

A hamstring strain on Opening Day felled Steele for a month before he could get going last year. He put together four excellent months, but elbow tendinitis cost him another three weeks in September. Injury has really been the only roadblock to success in his last three seasons, as his 3.14 FIP sits seventh among 55 pitchers with at least 400 IP.

Taillon has lived in a relatively tight range of outcomes over the last four seasons and is a bankable mid-rotation arm; he has averaged 160 innings with a 4.06 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over that stretch. The projections are throwing in a little extra age-related decline for the 33-year-old, tabbing him for a 4.31 ERA in 165 innings. If he can run a .269 BABIP like he did last year, a sub-4.00 ERA isn’t hard to envision. Boyd has battled persistent health problems since 2020, totaling just 263 innings in that time. There is playing time upside here, because while the Cubs won’t tax the 34-year-old southpaw, they will likely let him push his volume as long as he’s healthy.

Assad will open the season on the IL with a strained oblique, so Rea, the older version of him, will fill in as the fifth starter. Assad has a 4.49 FIP in 294 innings since 2022 compared to Rea’s 4.82 mark in 292.1 innings during that same time. Brown has the flashiest upside of the guys not already in the rotation, but his best value to the Cubs might be in a multi-inning stopper role as the bridge to Porter Hodge and Ryan Pressly in the late innings.

With an average age of 31 years old, the Giants rotation might seem like it’s past its prime, but there are still some reasons for excitement. Webb is one of the game’s few true workhorses, pacing the league with 613 innings since 2022. He made 30-plus starts in all three seasons and comfortably reached 4 WAR each time, too. Perhaps pairing Willy Adames with Matt Chapman on the left side of the infield will help Webb bring his BABIP back below .300 after last year’s four-year high of .315 (fourth-highest in the majors). Webb consistently churning out six-plus inning starts takes some of the burden off his rotation mates, both young and old. Ray is ready for his first full season after a 2023 Tommy John surgery and comes equipped with a new changeup, courtesy of Tarik Skubal. If he’s fully healthy, he could be Webb’s sidekick for volume and push back up to 180-plus innings. At 42 years old, the expectations for Verlander are modest, especially coming off shoulder and neck injuries. Still, if he does stay upright and brings that 1.5 HR/9 back to Earth, I wouldn’t rule out an ERA-qualifying season of solid work.

Roupp and Birdsong did so well this spring that it was hard for the Giants to send either to Triple-A. Roupp was a solid swingman in 50 innings for the Giants last year, and his unexpectedly strong spring effort took him all the way to the fifth starter’s role. He has a gaudy 30.4% strikeout rate in the Cactus League, but his swinging strike rate is up just a point to 11%. I’m more interested in his 2.2% walk rate; if he can hold some of those gains in the regular season and shave down the 12% mark we saw in 2024, it will be notable.

Birdsong has consistently dealt with control issues in his short pro career, including a rough 14.3% walk rate in his 72-inning debut last year, so for him to come to spring training and drop 12 walk-free innings with 18 strikeouts is impressive. That doesn’t mean he has completely figured out his control, but it is a step forward and helped him secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.

It looks like the Giants are running it back with Hicks as a starter, and I just don’t see the vision. After a brilliant April (1.59 ERA) last season, he came unglued, with a 5.29 ERA over his last 14 starts before being moved to the bullpen. Even that April run only came with a 13% K-BB, so the sharp regression wasn’t that surprising (11% K-BB in those last 14 starts). Maybe they will let Birdsong essentially follow Hicks and see them as a seven to eight inning tandem. Hicks averaged fewer than five innings in his 20 starts last year, going deeper just four times, three of which came in that big April.

Harrison got knocked around this spring, with a wild .524 BABIP and 2.7 HR/9 despite an excellent 24.2% K-BB. Birdsong is the sixth starter and will almost certainly fill in the first vacancy, while Harrison should be the no. 7. Coming up, Harrison had plenty of swing-and-miss but no control. He’s reversed course in the majors, with a palatable 7.8% walk rate but just a 22.5% strikeout rate. Pair that with some homer proneness and you get a 4.47 ERA through 159 big league innings. He’s still just 23 years old, though, so let’s not forget this three-time Top 100 prospect.

Those guys give the Giants some depth should Hicks flop again or age catches up to the others. Winn and top pitching prospect Whisenhunt also represent some capable depth, with Winn having pitched in the majors each of the last two years and Whisenhunt knocking on the door at Triple-A. His elite changeup gives him a good foundation to build on, but he has to throw strikes more consistently to sustain a starter’s workload (11.3% BB in 109.2 IP last year).

Not bringing Corbin Burnes back and losing Rodriguez to yet another injury exposes Baltimore’s lack of depth, to the point where they’ve re-signed Gibson to Pac-Man up a triple-digit inning total. Eflin will lead the charge in the meantime, as he hopes to complete a third straight season of at least 28 starts after struggling to stay healthy throughout his 20s. Morton keeps churning out the innings and the Orioles will take every single one they can get if he remains a solid-average arm. How many different ways can I describe an innings-eater? Let’s see what else I’ve got in the bag. Kremer has a kitchen sink five-pitch arsenal that has propelled him to a capable output, slowed only by oblique and knee injuries in 2022 and 2024, respectively.

Sugano comes over from NPB as a command-and-control finesse arm at age 35. He rides a nasty two-seamer to the bulk of his success. It was a heavy groundball pitch in Japan, as he could get away with fewer strikeouts. This spring, we saw a more neutral groundball/fly ball lean paired with a 25.4% strikeout rate in his five outings (15 IP). It’s unlikely he’s going to take the league by storm, but he’ll consistently keep the team in the game for five to six innings at a time. Gibson’s arrival helps mitigate the lost volume of Rodriguez while also taking some pressure off Povich, though I think the Orioles be better served giving him a bigger opportunity. Maybe they will let the veterans handle the front-end of the season and then open up a role for Povich in the summer.

I guess there’s a world where this aging group does enough to keep the Orioles in a position to win games for a couple month as they await the returns of Rodriguez (assuming this elbow injury doesn’t blossom into something worse), Bradish (returning from a summer 2024 TJ), and Rogers (working back from a right knee subluxation), but this doesn’t feel like a rotation befitting an AL East Division winner. For this team to be great, there will be a lottttt of pressure on the bullpen to hold every lead they get.

Alcantara is already working his way back from an elbow injury and is now in grave danger of suffering a massive back injury carrying this rotation! His WAR accounts for 37% of the Marlins’ total, as the projections assume both that he will throw 190 innings and spend the season with Miami, neither of which I see happening.

Meyer is set to begin his first full season in the majors and has a real chance to exceed his projection. Cabrera will start the season on the IL with a blister, but he still flashes electric stuff despite having very little idea where it’s going. Weathers suffered a forearm strain in spring training, undercutting the excitement he had generated this March. Quantrill will definitely be asked to eat up as many innings as possible as the team waits on the injured arms to return.

Pérez is returning from Tommy John surgery and the Marlins will no doubt take their time with him. There is no need to rush a potentially elite soon-to-be-22-year-old, particularly in a season that is unlikely to go anywhere. The sixth- and seventh-ranked prospects from the 2023 Padres list could make a dent for the club if either Mazur or Snelling show enough at Triple-A to earn an opportunity.

The Angels secured their pitching reinforcements right away this offseason, signing both Kikuchi and Hendricks in November to headline and bookend their rotation, respectively. After the trade deadline, Houston had Kikuchi amp up his slider usage 20 points to 37%, which fueled a 10-start surge that saw him post a 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 25.9% K-BB in 60 innings. That made the Angels comfortable giving the 33-year-old southpaw a three-year deal worth $64 million. Was the slider usage behind the 99-point drop in Kikuchi’s BABIP from Toronto to Houston, or was it some deserved regression setting in that happened to coincide with the arsenal change? Guess we’ll find out soon enough!

Even at his best, Hendricks seemed to live on a tightrope, as he thrived with a command-and-control profile that is out of place in today’s velo- and spin-heavy environment. Despite possessing a fastball that would struggle to break a pane of glass, Hendricks consistently beat the odds from 2015-20, finessing his way to the ninth-lowest ERA (3.17) and 11th-best WAR (19.3) in the league (min. 500 IP). Cracks began to show in 2021 (in his game — the glass pane remained intact), as his strikeout rate plummeted and his home run rate surged. Since then, he has the fourth-highest ERA in baseball at 4.80, with more of the same projected in 2025.

After a huge 2022 with the crosstown rival Dodgers, Anderson completely cratered in his first year as an Angel, but he was able to rebound last season, dropping his ERA 1.62 runs to 3.81 to go along with a 20-point dip in WHIP (to a more palatable 1.29) in 179.1 innings. Projections are essentially splitting the difference between the two seasons, making him more of a classic innings-eater than an impact arm this year.

The upside of this group is primarily found in the arm of Soriano, with a glint of hope still lingering around Detmers. Soriano enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, unleashing 100-mph sinkers on the league en route to a 1.7-WAR season in 113 innings. Arm fatigue slowed him in the second half, limiting him to just five starts, so adding volume and taking 30 turns in the rotation will be just as important as improving his performance in 2025. Detmers’ slider has a stranglehold on me; I just can’t quit this dude. His 6.70 ERA is deceptively high when we look at his 18.2% K-BB rate and 3.77 SIERA. Content warning, but I must bring up his vomit-inducing 1.9 HR/9, which was the second highest in baseball (min. 80 innings). Throw in a league-worst .357 BABIP and the ERA starts to make sense. The projections acknowledge the tangible upside if he can get the rest of his arsenal back in line. He’ll have to showcase his stuff in shorter stints out of the bullpen and earn his way back into the rotation. Truthfully, he could be an instant hit in the ‘pen and stay there all year if things go well.

Freshly named fifth starter Kochanowicz pulled off quite the magic trick last year, netting a 9.4% strikeout rate in 65.1 innings work, the lowest such rate in at least that many innings since Scott Diamond ripped off a 9% mark in 131 innings in 2013. His 96-mph sinker doesn’t miss bats, but it does keep the ball down (57% groundball rate), so as long as the defense is turning the grounders into outs consistently, he can string some success together in waves. The bill will eventually come due on allowing that much contact, though; it always does. More of the same groundball goodness in spring was enough to secure Kochanowicz a rotation spot in an upset over Detmers.

Silseth has shown the occasional flash, though his inability to keep the ball in the park with any consistency has limited his upside. Eric’s middle reliever tag for him on the 2023 Angels prospect list is looking more prescient by the day. Dana, the team’s top prospect, will get some more seasoning in the high minors after debuting directly from Double-A last year and should be the first man up if a long-term opportunity opens up in the rotation.

I’ll admit it: I’m a sucker for this Nats rotation. I understand why they’re ranked here, I just think they can exceed expectations. Gore enjoyed his best season yet (3.2 WAR) despite a 1.42 WHIP, so just imagine if he can actually cut into his base runner volume. As a flamethrowing lefty, it’ll likely come via cutting into his BABIP as opposed to his walk rate; he has improved the latter each of the last two seasons, but barring a substantial change to the way he pitches, 8-9% feels like the ceiling there. His BABIP, however, hasn’t seen the south side of .300 in his three seasons and was all the way up at .340 last year! Part of that is the infield defenders behind him, but part of it is his penchant for allowing line drives. Among the 74 pitchers with at least 350 IP during his career, he has a major league-worst 24% line drive rate despite an arsenal that’s too good to keep getting pieced up like that. Gore is still figuring it out, but when he does, there is a 4-plus-WAR season in this arm.

Irvin showed he can stand up to the rigors of 30-plus starts last year, though he may have maxed out his skills if he can’t find a way to shave down that 1.39 HR/9. Parker and Herz are two young lefties who combined for 240 innings of 4.1 WAR in 2024. Parker fell just 11 innings short of qualifying for the ERA title, while Herz made the most of his 88.2 innings, as his 18.3% K-BB rate led the team among the nine pitchers with at least 60 IP. Parker displayed a four-pitch arsenal that cooked lefties and capably handled righties. Even just pushing what he did last year over a greater volume would give Parker a chance at a 3.0 WAR campaign. Meanwhile, Herz had a horrendous spring that got him sent out early; he’ll have to iron out his control issues (18.4% BB%, -10.2% K-BB in 9.2 spring innings) to work his way back to Washington. Consistent control will be the deciding factor in his success. His 9.4% walk rate in the majors was a bit of a shock after he posted double-digit rates all the way up the ladder.

Soroka is the one to watch here. He broke out in his rookie year back in 2019, posting a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the back of an NL-best 0.7 HR/9 in 174.2 innings, but he has thrown all of 126 innings since then. Yes, in four-plus seasons (stupid 2020 is relegated to “plus” status), he’s averaging about 25 IP/year, as injuries have completely ravaged his career; he missed all of 2021 and 2022. Nothing jumps off the page from his 2023-24 stints, just that he finally got some innings again, including 79.2 last season. If his ugly spring starts aren’t a harbinger of another injury, he has some intrigue with elevated velocity and more swing-and-miss in his game.

A forearm strain undercut the beginnings of a career year for Williams, though that assumes both his 4.2% HR/FB and 80.2% LOB rates would’ve held throughout the season despite no substantive changes to his arsenal. Without at least one of those factors returning in 2025, he is a near-certainty to return to an ERA in the 4.00s. Cavalli still has a tinge of prospect sheen at age 26, though he’s working back from a Tommy John surgery back in 2023, so it’s hard to be terribly confident in what he can offer this year. Gray got the internal brace version of Tommy John in late July of 2024, so the quicker timeline to return might allow him to squeeze in a few September innings before his 2026 return.

If the Guardians want another 92-win season, they have to get more juice out of their rotation, as there’s almost no way they can get another 2.57 ERA out of their bullpen while running their top four arms out there for 70-plus appearances apiece. The projections are dubious on this happening, though. They’ve got Bibee running it back with another capable season atop the rotation, though Cleveland will no doubt want him to add to his 173.2 innings from 2024. Williams has been one of the buzziest fantasy players this spring, and while this projection would be a marked improvement on 2024, there is upside for a good bit more if he can stay healthy, to the point where he could challenge Bibee for the top spot.

The Guardians are known as a strong development org when it comes to pitching, and they will have to flex that muscle for the rest of the group, as only Lively projects to exceed 100 innings — and he’s not pulling another 3.81 ERA rabbit out of his hat. There is discernible talent in the McKenzie-Ortiz-Allen-Cantillo group, though all of those guys come with at least one major question mark, either around their health or their lack of track record. We saw how great McKenzie can be when he got a reprieve from the barrage of injuries that has plagued his career and posted a sparkling 2.96 ERA/0.95 WHIP combo in 2022, but he has 92 innings pitched since then. He’ll start the year in the bullpen.

While we rarely put too much stock into spring numbers, Ortiz currently can’t find the plate with a GPS, running a 16.2% walk rate in five starts. When he has gotten one over, it has gone over the fence (1.8 HR/9) or safely into play (11.1 H/9), resulting in an eye-popping 11.66 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. I’ll remind you that it’s still just 14.2 innings, but work this bad in the Cactus League is usually indicative of an issue that could take time to figure out. Allen was part of the three-headed rookie monster with Bibee and Williams that gave the team a 3.35 ERA in 349 innings in 2023, but his 1.40 WHIP made it clear that his 3.81 contribution in 125.1 innings would be tough to bet on going forward. A -0.7 WAR in 2024 proved that true, though a sharp spring (19% K-BB, 1.05 WHIP) has him back in the rotation with a glint of optimism.

Cantillo is one of my favorite prospects, and if the young lefty can harness his command and control issues, he has the strikeout upside to be the Guardians’ key breakout arm of the year. Cecconi came over in the Josh Naylor trade and is nursing an oblique injury as of this writing, but he could be a summer X-factor if they can tap into some of the swing-and-miss he flashed in the minors; the 18.7% strikeout rate we’ve seen in his 104 big league innings just won’t cut it.

Junis is my guy to watch, though. The 32-year-old righty has a 3.66 SIERA over the last four seasons, good for 35th among the 156 starting pitchers with at least 300 IP. He’ll likely max out around 80-90 innings if they have to turn to him, but he’s a sneaky solid swingman. If this group can hold down the fort and keep the team in contention, Cleveland will get Bieber back at some point in the summer. It’d be wise to keep expectations low as he returns from Tommy John surgery, but studs do studly things, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he carves out 10-12 quality starts.

Look at the Rockies checking in at 28!!! OK, maybe that doesn’t deserve three exclamation points, but it is their highest spot in three seasons. Márquez is returning after essentially missing two full seasons (24 combined IP in 2023-24) and projects to re-assume the ace role. Freeland had things figured out – insofar as any Rockies pitcher can – during a nice three-year run of 4.43 ERA-ball in 366 innings from 2020-22. Since then, he has the fourth-worst ERA (5.12) among 79 starters with at least 250 innings, but in a Shyamalanian plot twist, it’s actually his road work doing the damage, with a 5.51 ERA in 133 innings.

Feltner, my favorite of the group, narrowly edges Márquez for the team’s K-BB% crown, but a few more homers are enough to push the WAR projection toward Márquez. The selfish fantasy player in me wishes we could see a full year of Feltner is any other venue, where he could perhaps put up something near his 2024 road rates of 3.93 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Senzatela had a 3.5 WAR campaign back in 2021, but that feels like a lifetime ago looking at the 5.21 ERA in 112.1 innings since, which includes a pair of washout seasons (20 combined innings in 2023-24). Just pushing the innings column back into triple digits would be a win for him almost regardless of the results.

Dollander is the next great pitching hope for this organization, checking in at no. 12 on our Top 100 as the lone Rockies entrant. The ninth overall pick from the 2023 draft has all the tools for success and put them on display during a season spent at High- and Double-A, posting a 2.59 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 24.4% K-BB in 118 innings. The question, as it has always been with Colorado’s pitching prospects, is whether he can survive Coors and then excel on the road. It might take some time, but I’m eager to see him debut.

The White Sox will be better this year. I know, I know, that is an absolutely wild prediction for the team coming off the worst season in major league history. Their fortunes aren’t going to turn on a dime such that they’re all of a sudden a contender this season, but they are bringing some solid young arms north and their quality farm system should funnel more talent to the big league club as the season wears on. Burke caught my eye with a cup of coffee in September that saw him post a 1.42 ERA/1.00 WHIP combo in 19 innings. He isn’t that good — basically nobody is — but his 19.7% K-BB and mid-3.00s ERA estimators suggest he could headline this rotation in 2025.

Smith is the other guy who is projected for at least half a season of work and has my attention. The top Rule 5 pick this past winter out of Milwaukee did enough in spring to secure his spot, though the role is undetermined as of this writing. Perhaps the best course of action for a team in rebuilding mode is to start him off as a multi-inning reliever and eventually move him into the rotation during the summer if things are going well. That way they can slowly escalate his innings from last year’s 94.1 while also easing his transition into the majors.

Cannon, Martin, and Pérez are birds of a feather as contact-oriented soft-ish tossers – crazy that 93-94 mph fits that category, but that’s where we are these days – who can soak up some innings as they await the arrival of guys like Schultz, Nastrini, Iriarte, Gonzalez, Jake Eder, and maaaybe Hagen Smith, though he was drafted just last year and there’s no need for Chicago to rush him.

I’m just as stunned as you are that the Rockies aren’t in the 30th slot here. The Athletics 4.37 ERA last year was decent enough for the 24th spot in the league, but that was completely spurred by their bullpen’s 3.83, as the starters managed just a 4.76 mark. Their two additions – Severino and Springs – are far and away slated to be their best starters by WAR, but the drop-off is severe, as no one else springs past a 1.0 WAR. Sutter Health Park, the minor league stadium they will play in this year, isn’t going to do much to aid the projected 1.3 HR/9 for the group, either.

If you’re scanning for some upside, turn to Bido, who shone brightly in a 63.1-inning sample last year (1.4 WAR), and has locked up a rotation spot heading into the season. I did have some love for Sears in his prospect days, but he simply doesn’t miss enough bats to confidently project a breakthrough season. He’s shown himself capable of eating up some innings these last two seasons, but just 1.7 WAR in 353 innings indicates how well those innings have gone. Of the 21 pitchers with at least 350 IP since 2023, that is the lowest WAR, behind even Patrick Corbin (2.6) and well behind the pack once you get past Corbin, as José Berríos and Kyle Gibson are sitting at four wins. Meanwhile, Estes feels like a righty Sears in the making, with decent control but little else (12% K-BB, 1.6 HR/9).

There isn’t much on the way for the Athletics, as Luis Morales was the team’s only pitching prospect in the Top 100 and he only has 81 innings at High-A.