2025 Positional Power Rankings: First Base

I’ll be watching Guerrero’s 2025 season very carefully. With contract extension talks seemingly off the table, this season will exert tremendous leverage on his future earnings. Is he the hitter he was in 2021 and 2024, 60% better than league average with spectacular contact skills and elite power? If 2025 looks the same, he’ll break the bank. He just turned 26 on March 16, and five-win players don’t hit free agency that young very often. The closest comparison might actually the guy below him on the list, Bryce Harper: a generational star who signed a huge deal with a new team after reaching free agency.

If Guerrero instead reprises his 2022 and 2023 seasons, the picture gets more muddled. He’s defensively limited, so it’s all about the bat. And he’s particularly vulnerable to a power outage because his game focuses so heavily on balls in play; he doesn’t strike out much, doesn’t walk a ton, and makes hay on line drives to all fields, so the difference between an 11.1% barrel rate (2023) and a 13.7% mark (2024) is hugely impactful, even more so for him than for many of his superstar counterparts. I don’t think this is the base case – and our projections agree – but the gap in future pay between the good and bad outcomes might be as high for Guerrero this year as it’s ever been for any player.

As for Toronto, they need Guerrero to be at least as good as projected, and possibly better, to have a real shot at returning to the playoffs. The team has been built around getting top-shelf production out of first base and finding complementary help elsewhere. This is the last guaranteed year of the Guerrero/Bichette core, and the pressure is rising. Simply put, Toronto has a ton riding on this season, and Guerrero does too.

Want to get better at first base? Take one of the brightest stars in the game and move him there. Philadelphia cycled through first base options for years when Harper was a right fielder, but he moved to the dirt thanks to an elbow injury and the inexorable passage of time. It has worked out about as well as the Phillies could have hoped for; Harper looks awesome at first, he’s hitting as well as ever, and their roster flexibility actually increased given a glut of outfield options.

This blurb is about first base and not the outfield, though, so let’s focus on Harper. He’s a prototypical slugging first baseman, capable of 40-homer power if everything breaks right and blessed with a batting eye that gets him on base at a healthy clip despite his aggressive, smash-everything-to-constituent-atoms swing. First base also seems to agree with him health-wise; 2024 was the first time he topped 600 plate appearances in a season since 2019.

Truthfully, that makes this blurb hard to write. Harper is great, and the ways that he’s great are self-evident. If he gets injured, we’ll probably see some of Bohm and some of Wilson, but it won’t matter. Those guys just can’t deliver the same performance. This spot in the rankings is all about having one of the superstars of the game at a position where true difference-makers are increasingly rare.

First base lends itself, at least among its stars, to long careers and high plate appearance totals, with Freeman a perfect example. If availability is a skill, he surely has it. Last season marked the most games he’s missed since 2017 – he was away from the team while his son dealt with a scary bout of Guillain-Barré syndrome, and also suffered a fractured finger – and he still only missed 15. He was clearly compromised during the Dodgers’ playoff run, playing through broken ribs and a bad ankle sprain that would eventually require offseason surgery, and he hit a walk-off grand slam in Game 1 of the World Series anyway. Freeman is just built differently.

Last year, he wasn’t quite as good as he’s been in recent years, but he was still spectacular, and in the way we’re accustomed to seeing from Freeman. He has a marvelous sense of the strike zone and a beautifully honed swing, and he combines those two skills to scald extra-base hits all over the park.

At 35, he probably can’t keep this up forever. But would you bet on that changing this year? I wouldn’t. Freeman just posted his lowest BABIP since 2012 and still contributed mightily on the offensive side of things. A bounce back there would be enough to offset skill decline elsewhere, which is why we’re projecting him for a better offensive line this year.

In some peripheral aspects, we’re already seeing Freeman slow down. He’s slower afoot, and his defense appears to be a bit worse than it was at peak. But those things don’t matter particularly much at first, and even then, the best baserunning season of his career was all of two seasons ago, so I wouldn’t expect those skills to completely vanish. He’s just an excellent baseball player, and the smart money is on excellent baseball players continuing to excel.

In true Dodger fashion, even the backups here are elite. Muncy is faking third base, but his natural position is first. Plenty of multi-positional backups could cover for him at the hot corner. The Dodgers have an elite top choice at first base, and their contingency plans are pretty impressive too.

Here’s the first team where the first base production doesn’t look exactly the way you’d expect. Díaz isn’t quite as big of a star as the three guys ahead of him on this list, and he also succeeds in about the strangest way you can imagine, keeping the ball on the ground instead of launching dingers.

We’re expecting a significant bounce back for him this year, a season more like his 2022 than his 2024, when pitchers absolutely flooded the zone and dared him to make them regret it. The result was his worst OBP in half a decade, and he didn’t slug enough to make up for it, posting one of the highest groundball rates of his grounder-heavy career. In previous campaigns, Díaz was able to lift enough contact to rack up piles of extra-base hits when pitchers challenged him, and he’ll have to make a similar adjustment again.

This being the Rays, there are plenty of contingency plans if Díaz can’t get back to his peak form. Aranda has nothing left to prove in the minors and actually projects to be nearly as good as Díaz. Lowe’s natural defensive home might be first base at this point in his career, and he also projects for similar offensive output. That doesn’t even get into top prospects Tre’ Morgan and Xavier Isaacs, both of whom are tearing through the minors, or Mead, who we expect to play all over the diamond. It’s classic Tampa Bay – the starter at the position has some red flags, but the depth behind him is downright drool-worthy.

The Braves probably expected to be neck and neck with the “teams with star first basemen” group on this list. After all, they have a star first baseman. But Olson had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad 2024. Even worse, it wasn’t a matter of availability; he played every single game. But he looked worse last season than he had before in every facet of his game, and the trend is inarguably scary.

Chase rate? Up. In-zone swing rate? Down. His bat speed declined, as did his barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and expected production on contact. He struck out more, walked less often, and saw his slugging percentage decline by 150 points compared to 2023. Just about the only thing that went right is that he made a bit more contact, but that’s less exciting when the contact is poor.

It’s not like the Braves have alternatives to playing Olson. He’s under contract through at least 2029, and there’s really no one behind him on the depth chart, whether we’re talking the major league roster or the upper minors. He’s going to get the lion’s share of the playing time again – he hasn’t missed a single game in his three years in Atlanta. The question is this: Was 2024 a fluke, or was it a preview of the new normal? Our models have split the difference, but expect some panicky Braves fans and execs if an early-season bounce back doesn’t materialize.

Boy, what a difference a year makes. The Astros made the playoffs again last year – what else is new? – but they did so with horrid production out of first base. The only teams that did worse were the Rockies and Reds, not exactly illustrious company. So Houston went out and signed a top first baseman in free agency.

Walker doesn’t get it done the way your average first baseman does. His offense is above average, not elite, but his defense is literally off the charts. He makes plays at a clip that no one else approaches, covers huge ground, and displays the deft hands and wide reach that are so important at the position.

That makes me nervous, because I’m a nervous person. Walker’s offense is enough for the position now, particularly with all the value he’s adding elsewhere. But far more so than the other starters who dot the top of the list, a decline would put him in worrisome territory. He’s only been 20% above average offensively in the past handful of years (granted, he dealt with a strained oblique last season), and he’s 33. Move that down to 10% above average, and the dead zone will rear its ugly head. And first base defense is a weird thing to hang your hat on – if Walker is good rather than singular, the whole package is meaningfully less valuable. The Astros brought out the wallet to shore up a position of need, and Walker is an obvious upgrade, but their solution still has me skeptical about how things will pan out.

Meet the new Mets first baseman, same as the old Mets first baseman. After a winter that makes me hope I never see Alonso’s name and “contract negotiation” in the same sentence ever again, he and the team are running back a successful partnership with a two-year, $54 million deal. That’s great news for the negotiation weary, even if the total was probably a bit disappointing for Alonso – the minute the games start counting, it matters much less what you’re getting paid and much more how you’re producing.

So how will Alonso produce? Probably about the same as he always seems to, with 40-ish homers and a solid, walk-driven on-base percentage. At this point, Alonso’s game is well-known. He makes great contact for a slugger. He tries to lift the ball whenever he can, and while he has power to all fields, he’s aiming to pull when he gets a pitch to hit. It’s hard to make as much contact as Alonso does – more than league average! – while hitting for power like that. It once led me to speculate, only half-joking, whether he might be the best pure home run hitter of all time.

Concerns about whether Alonso’s dip in production in 2024 will persist are natural, but both of our projection systems expect improvement. That makes perfect sense to me – his underlying raw skills didn’t change at all. Money was a hot topic this winter, but when the season starts, the Mets will be in a familiar position, getting high-end everyday value at first base.

This is a tricky one! Boston’s projection here relies on Devers splitting time between first, third, and DH. That seems like a good mean projection to me. The path of least resistance would have him DHing after missing most of the spring, but if there’s an injury or Alex Bregman has to play second for one reason or another, the pieces could move around the chess board quickly.

Don’t let all that uncertainty distract you from the story here: both are solid options at first. Casas hasn’t lived up to expectations in the majors, but that has more to do with his availability than his per-PA production. He’s always going to strike out a lot, but his keen batting eye allows him to hunt smashable pitches and lay off bad ones, tapping into his excellent power. As for Devers – well, he’s Rafael Devers. He’s a career 125 wRC+ hitter and still only 28. He’s always been a force, but he’s boosted his career line in each of the last four years, which suggests to me that he’s still learning more ways to harness his aggressive, powerful style.

I don’t know if the split will end up looking quite like this, but I do think that the projections for each player are telling. Both of these guys are good hitters, even for first base. Either would be a top-10 first baseman if they played the whole year. Boston will have a good option at first base. We just don’t know who it’ll be yet.

It’s amusing to me that the Cards let Paul Goldschmidt leave in free agency, only to slip to… two spots ahead of his new team on the rankings. But that’s because Contreras is moving to the position from catcher, and also because St. Louis’ customary position player depth is on display. Between Burleson, Baker, Donovan, and possibly Nolan Gorman in a pinch, the Cards have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to defensively challenged boppers who need playing time.

I’m very interested in seeing how Contreras performs in his first year away from catcher. He’s shown a first-base-caliber bat throughout his career, and done so while getting beat up day in and day out. I’m not ready to project improvement in his age-33 season, but I believe the change will allow him to keep his body at peak physical condition for a larger portion of the year. It’s not like he needs to improve on offense, anyway: His batting line is a rough match for Matt Olson’s over the past three years, and better than both Goldschmidt’s and Pete Alonso’s.

That must be frustrating for Burleson, a natural first baseman who looked like he might finally get to play his best position after Goldschmidt departed. But hey, DH is available too, and he’ll get plenty of time at first anyway. Donovan is going to be busy in other roles and I don’t think Baker is as good as Burleson, but both are solid emergency options in case of injury.

The Nats are caught in a weird spot. They’re not quite ready to compete, despite an intriguing and fast-arriving young core. But Lowe fell into their laps this winter – the Rangers wanted relief pitching, hardly something Washington should be hoarding at the moment, and Lowe was expendable after a trade for Jake Burger. So Washington played the accumulation game by swapping a reliever for a first baseman, climbing the value ladder a rung at a time.

Lowe is the kind of guy who championship clubs need, but he’s not the kind of guy who makes you a championship club. He’s in the prime of his career and has been cranking out above-average seasons like clockwork since becoming a big league regular in 2021. If he’s your best hitter, that’s bad, but guys like him lengthen lineups. He isn’t as much of a bopper as his first base peers, but he doesn’t have a career .356 OBP on accident. He’s patient, makes good contact, and has enough power that opponents can’t just flood the strike zone to neutralize him.

If the Nats contend for the playoffs this year, Lowe will be a nice contributor. If they don’t, though, I think he might be on the move again. There are plenty of teams with championship aspirations and uncertain first base solutions. Combine that with Washington’s general willingness to deal – Mike Rizzo is an active and successful trader – and I think that Lowe is going to make an impact somewhere this year. The question is where.

First base has been a problem for the Bronx Bombers in recent years, a rare hole in an offense that consistently scores a ton of runs. Their solution? Bring in an aging slugger to patch the hole for a year. That’s a very Yankees solution, and it’s had mixed results in the past, but it’s hard to argue with the thought process this time.

Goldschmidt is 37, and he’s coming off his worst year as a professional. But even that worst year wasn’t abysmal, and his batted ball data looked a lot better than the results on the field. As an all-fields righty hitter, he’ll also benefit from the snug confines of Yankee Stadium; even though he was excellent during his tenure in St. Louis, the ballpark was never a great fit for his game. I wouldn’t count on years of production from him, but I like the risk on a one-year deal.

It would behoove the Yankees to have a Plan B, though. Just because I like their first choice doesn’t mean there’s no chance of failure. That Plan B looks to be a mix of guys, the most interesting of whom is probably Rice. Even after a rough first season, we think he’ll be almost as good of a hitter as Goldschmidt. The minor league numbers are gaudy, to say the least. Rice is no sure thing, but as backup plans go, he’s a pretty good one.

This is a small part of the team’s Juan Soto replacement plan – but every little bit helps.

We’re squarely into the first base dead zone at this point. The Royals have the highest upside of that group, in my eyes, because a fully operational Pasquantino doesn’t belong in this tier. The biggest knock on him has been health, but when he’s right, I think he’s more 30-40% above average as a hitter than 15-20%, and that extra offense is very valuable when it comes to standing out from the pack.

Of course, Pasquantino has rarely been healthy, which makes counting on him trickier. Nagging injuries cost him time and weighed on his production throughout the 2024 season, and that’s after missing the majority of 2023 thanks to a shoulder injury. The promise is there – scalding contact quality, great bat control, and a good sense of the strike zone – but putting all three together while keeping his body intact has proven difficult.

The Royals almost have to plan around an absence, and luckily for them, Perez can fill in the gap. As he enters his age-35 season, he’s handling less of the team’s catching duties than ever, and he filled in for Pasquantino several times last year. He’s not a transcendent first base bat, but he’s a luxury option as a backup. Oh, and don’t pay too much attention to that Caglianone projection. If he earns playing time in the majors in 2025, it’ll be because he tore up the minors. If he plays like someone who would have a .254 OBP, he’s not going to reach the big leagues this year.

If one Ryan is good, two is better. That’s Baltimore’s thinking, at least, in deploying a Ryan/Ryan platoon rather than handing first to a single contributor. Mountcastle projects for more work despite being the natural short side of the platoon, and his track record has dead zone written all over it. There are plenty of guys who can produce a 112 wRC+, Mountcastle’s career mark. That makes him extremely replaceable, but the Orioles haven’t found a better option.

O’Hearn flashed a higher ceiling at the start of last year, but he slowed down massively as the year went on. The O’s hide him from lefties, and that seems wise to me: he has a career .190/.245/.301 slash line against them, albeit in a small sample because he so rarely gets a chance to hit without the platoon advantage. We’re projecting him for a 120 wRC+, which should keep him in the lineup against righties, but quite frankly, that’s not an inspiring mark for a guy who can really only play first base and can’t face lefties.

The O’s are ripe for improvement here, in other words. But that dang first base dead zone makes it hard! The few stars who play first base rarely hit the trade market. The guys who you can acquire for a song aren’t an improvement on the Ryans. It’s a tough spot for Baltimore, but one they can live with as long as the rest of their offense continues to mash. The good news is that between the young guys listed here and Samuel Basallo, a catching prospect who might hit enough to force his way to first base, the O’s have some potential reinforcements bubbling up to the majors.

It says something about how teams value first base that the offensively challenged Guardians gave up one of their best everyday hitters in Naylor, but well, that’s the dead zone for you. Naylor played a full season for the first time in his major league career and delivered 31 homers combined with an impressively low strikeout rate for a bopper. Those are his two best skills by a mile – he doesn’t take a ton of walks, he doesn’t hit for average, and he runs a low BABIP thanks to his speed and batted ball tendencies. But those are pretty much the two best skills you can have as a hitter, which explains why he was 18% above average anyway.

Here’s an interesting comparison for you: Naylor and departed D-backs first baseman Christian Walker have been dead ringers offensively for the past three years. Walker racked up four more wins, though, thanks to his availability and his fielding. In other words, if you don’t put much stock into those two things, the situation is about the same as before. But the difference between Walker’s otherworldly defense and Naylor’s average glove is large, and I’m not enamored with Arizona’s backup options. There’s a big opportunity for Naylor here – he could replace a franchise cornerstone – but there’s pressure, too, because if he doesn’t hit, the defensive gap will loom even larger. There’s also the ever-present risk of injury; we have Smith, to this point a career backup, penciled in for a meaningful share of playing time, even though Arizona would surely prefer to have Naylor get nearly every rep.

You’re tired of hearing about the first base dead zone by now, I’m sure. But what can I say? The Cubs like the idea so much that they have two players who fit the bill. Busch needs to either strike out less or hit for more power to ascend to a higher level of production. He’s capable of both adjustments – he’s shown the skills in the minors – but I’m skeptical that he’ll ever be a 35-homer guy. That means he’ll just need to make more contact to take things to the next level. He managed a 119 wRC+ last year, but the underlying data was middling, and we’re projecting a slight downtick in 2025.

His platoon partner, Turner, is a good example of how Busch might look at his best. He has never topped 30 homers in a season, but he doesn’t have to; he posted a 136 wRC+ in nine years with the Dodgers by stroking doubles and avoiding strikeouts. At 40, those days are far behind him, but even with massively diminished power, he’s a smart enough hitter to get by on guile and contact.

You could certainly do worse at first base. You could do better, too; we project 14 teams to, for example. This is about as middle of the road as it gets, though with fun trajectories. Instead of one guy treading water, we’ve got one hoping to ascend and one on the downswing. Even if the overall output ends up average, it’ll be an entertaining way of getting there.

Keith had never played a professional inning at first base before this spring – he’s a bat-first second baseman. But when Detroit signed Gleyber Torres, they shifted Keith over to first, where he was likely headed in the long run anyway. He’s got the body type for it, and 23-year-olds with his speed and reaction times get pushed to first base or the outfield corners quite frequently.

There’s potential for disaster here. Keith showed flashes, but he finished the year with a 97 wRC+ thanks to a second-half power outage. It’s difficult to contribute at first without power, and you certainly can’t do it with a 6.5% walk rate. At second base, the question was whether he’d be able to handle the position defensively. At first, the risk comes from the offensive side.

Thanks to his excellent minor league career, we project Keith to improve markedly in 2025. But a marked improvement from his 2024 offensive output still only gets him to a 115 wRC+. It would behoove the Tigers to have a backup plan. Unfortunately, Torkelson is about three years ahead of Keith on the “exciting prospect who hasn’t figured out how to hit in the majors” path. The guys behind that duo are utility players who own first baseman’s mitts. If Keith doesn’t develop, the Tigers are going to have a major weakness in their lineup as they scrap for a contested AL Central title.

If I were making my own rankings instead of relying on the projections, I’d have the Mariners higher. I’m a big Raley fan. I love the bunts, the versatility, the weird strikeouts-and-line-drives way he gets to his production. Our projection systems see his 30% strikeout rate and tough-to-sustain HR/FB ratio and call for regression. I see a raft of free base hits and a good enough approach that I’m expecting him to either walk more or strike out less going forward. The systems are good, obviously, but I think this is a reasonable spot to fade them.

That said, he is a Mariner, and counting on a Mariner to exceed offensive expectations hasn’t been a great move in recent years. The risks with Raley are pretty clear. He doesn’t slug enough to move the needle at first base, so if the base hits and walks slow down at all, the overall package won’t really work. I’d feel a lot better about Raley as a Plan A if there were more behind him than Locklear, a speculative option at best, and a pile of lottery tickets. If things work out well, first base will be just fine in Seattle, but if I’m wrong and Raley disappoints, the alternatives leave a lot to be desired. For some teams, that’d be fine, but with Seattle desperate for offense, I’m not enamored with the situation despite liking Raley. If you don’t have a top-tier option at first base, the least you can do is minimize your risk of ruin.

If the first two times were both charms, can the third be as well? Santana was a stalwart in Cleveland over the first eight years of his career, then again for a two-year stint after briefly decamping in free agency. This time, he’s coming back as the capstone of a lengthy, accomplished career. Last season was his best in half a decade, and he played great defense to boot. We’re projecting him for more of the same this year – sure, not a ton of power, but enough (given his batting eye and defense) to turn in a respectable season.

Still, “respectable season” is a bummer for a team that traded away one of their best hitters, Josh Naylor, this winter. It’s a bummer for a team that needs more offense in a tight divisional race. And it’s really a bummer for Manzardo, who we’re projecting for 427 plate appearances across a few positions instead of a full-time role. One of two things will happen here: Either Santana is going to make a lot of people smile with a swan song that echoes his best years with the team, or the whole thing will feel like more of the Guardians taking half measures offensively when full measures were merited.

We’ll cover this one in two parts. First, Horwitz: His breakthrough 2024 looked something like a lefty Justin Turner, and now he even gets to play his natural position. He doesn’t swing hard and doesn’t have big power, but he has elite bat control, a great approach, and a swing geared to rip line drives. This isn’t a case of projection systems liking hitters who produce in the minors despite a lack of high-end tools; Horwitz has already done it in the majors, and with promising underlying data to boot.

The only problem? Horwitz had wrist surgery in February. He’s only now building back up, which means the Pirates need to give 200 or so plate appearances to other first basemen to start the year. And the options are not pretty. We’re throwing a ton of names at the wall on this depth chart because Pittsburgh is doing the same. Stewart had the best 2024 wRC+ of any of the seven – at a dispiriting 88. Forget the first base dead zone – that’s the first base replacement-level zone.

Yorke is my favorite of the group. He’s shown a wide variety of offensive skills in the minors and can handle a few infield spots, which means he’ll end up as a utility option later in the season if he hits enough to stay in the big leagues. The Pirates don’t have a ton of depth, so incorporating Yorke into the offense early would be a best-case outcome for them. But just because I like him more than most of these options doesn’t mean I feel good about the situation.

Any time you can trade away a first baseman for a reliever after trading for a different first baseman who underperformed your incumbent the season before, you have to do it, right? The Rangers sure thought so, swapping in Burger for Nathaniel Lowe. Burger is power incarnate and not much else. He strikes out a good amount, rarely walks, and thanks to below-average footspeed and high-angle contact, he doesn’t turn many batted balls into hits. It’s home runs or nothing, and over the past two years, he’s cracked 63 of them, enough to power a 113 wRC+.

Burger started the switch from third base, where he was a very poor fielder, last season. Perhaps a full-time role that doesn’t overly strain him on the defensive side will unlock some more offense. The Rangers seem to have made this move because they want power more than on-base out of the position, and Burger will certainly give them that.

The most notable option behind Burger is Smith, who is almost the reverse of Burger, a smooth-fielding infielder with below-average power but good on-base skills. When he plays first, it’ll be because the team is getting his bat into the lineup however it can. Given that his best season involved a BABIP-aided 111 wRC+, that probably won’t happen too often. I like Smith a ton at other infield spots. Here, he’s a reminder that lots of names doesn’t always mean good depth.

Neither Arraez nor Cronenworth contributes in the “normal” first base way. Arraez hit only four homers last year on his way to a third consecutive batting average crown. I think he should bat third instead of first, but wherever he hits in the lineup, he’ll provide balls in play first, OBP second, and hopefully enough doubles to cash in the runners on base and keep the line moving for San Diego’s power threats. You can quibble with exactly how valuable that skill set is, but “it’s not valuable” isn’t a reasonable argument. The endless pile of singles might flatter his batting average more than his overall run production, but it’s still great for overall run production. Given a full season of playing time at first base, Arraez projects as better than average.

Given that the Padres don’t have a full-time DH, Arraez will flex to that position quite often. That’s because Cronenworth is the superior defender at first base when he’s not busy playing second. His offense is lackluster for first, but given that San Diego is going to be playing him every day anyway, they might as well optimize who stands where. He’s a slightly above-average hitter with more OBP than slug, a profile that looks boring at first but enticing at second. But never mind that; the point is that he’s a capable major leaguer, and thanks to the Padres’ roster construction, some of that competence comes at a position where WAR makes him look a little worse than his talent level.

Vive le France? The Twins sure hope so, because like many of their divisional opponents, they waved vaguely at first base solutions this winter instead of coming up with a good Plan A. France absolutely bopped for two years in Seattle, but he’s fallen on hard times of late. How hard of times? He got DFA’ed by the Mariners and then cut by the Reds in 2024. The dream here would be a rebound to his glory days, a doubles-and-dingers party with few strikeouts to weigh him down. More realistically, 20 homers and an average OBP would get France in the realm of average first base production. How likely is that? Here’s one data point: France signed for $1 million this winter.

I like the backup options on this list more, particularly from a roster-building perspective. Miranda played plenty of third base last year, but in an ideal world, he’d spend most of his time at first. In that world, he’d also develop a little more power, with the upside being peak Ty France. That might sound bad, but I like his odds of reaching peak-France production in 2025 more than I like France’s.

That leaves Julien, who is the highest-upside option. He had a nightmare 2024 season, but when he’s at his best, he gets on base at a gaudy clip and hits enough homers to offset his high strikeout rate. He’s only 26, under team control for quite a while, and can handle second base in a pinch, albeit not particularly well. The Twins are surely hoping he’ll take this job and run with it. Signing France implies they’re not sold on that outcome, though.

The Giants of recent vintage love their platoons, and they particularly love trying to assemble average first base production out of them. Wade has settled into his role as the big half of that first-base pairing quite nicely. He draws tons of walks and is good for the occasional extra-base pop when pitchers fall behind and challenge him. So long as the team keeps hiding him against lefties – he’s been helpless against them – he’s a good offensive building block and a fine leadoff hitter.

The weak part is the other side of the platoon. Flores was a good pairing with Wade for years, but he slumped miserably in 2024 amid a knee injury that required surgery. At 33 and coming off of a .206/.277/.318 clunker, our projection systems aren’t optimistic that he’ll regain his earlier form. If he hits like he did from 2021-23 (116 wRC+), great, the team has constructed a good first baseman in the aggregate. If he struggles like this projection suggests, they’ll be forced to find someone else to fill this role. Encarnacion is auditioning for that part, so he provides some nice insurance. Eldridge is probably the future rather than the present, and a lefty to boot. But somehow, some way, the Giants need to find someone to pair with Wade for this to work.

If Schanuel can figure out how to hit 20-25 homers a season, he’s going to be the Angels’ anchor at first base for a long time. His contact and on-base skills are already impeccable. He walks a ton, rarely chases, and sprays line drives to all fields when he swings. But that power might be hard to find, thanks to Schanuel’s second-percentile bat speed. He might be getting the most out of his swing, but without more thump, I don’t see a path to stardom. The dream scenario here is that Schanuel has Freddie Freeman-level feel to hit. But while Freeman prioritizes ball striking over bat speed, he swings meaningfully harder than Schanuel, nearly 5 mph on average. Ten percent of Freeman’s swings are 75 mph or harder; Schanuel’s rate is more like 1.5%.

Whether Schanuel can make a change or not, he’s the team’s only real option here. The guys behind him are a mixed bag of out-of-position utility infielders and waiver wire dart throws. If the Angels are able to, they’ll give Schanuel closer to 650 PA than 550, so keep an eye on his health. Sure, he needs to make a difficult physical adjustment to find a new gear, but that feels a lot more likely than Davis, Newman, and Noda turning into difference makers. The Angels aren’t going to contend this year – but maybe they can do some building for the future at first base.

A shrug emoji would provide similar clarity on Cincinnati’s plans here. The Reds have assembled a pile of multi-positional infielders, but are they first basemen? Plenty of Steer’s value comes from his versatility, as he plays blah defense all over the diamond with above-average offense. That’s very interesting at third base or in an outfield corner, but less so at first, where tons of players can do just that. Truthfully, I think he’s on this list because he’s nursing a shoulder injury that limits his arm strength, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s not maxing out his potential when he plays first.

Candelario is in a similar spot. When things go right, he’s slightly above average with the bat and can play a solid third base. At first, his defensive value is wasted. The same is true of Lux, but at least we have him getting most of his reps at second and third. That just leaves Encarnacion-Strand, and unlike the other options, he truly is a first baseman. The issue here is that he might not hit enough to stick in the big leagues. After a strikeouts-and-dingers-laden debut season, he broke his wrist early in 2024 and never got things going. The potential is there; he has huge raw power and a swing that taps into it efficiently. If he can refine his approach, he might be great. But, uh, he chases a ton and can’t draw a walk to save his life. That’s why the Reds will give tons of players a chance here. Sure, CES is the top choice in a perfect world, but if he’s struggling, there are too many solid hitters on this team to let him keep flailing away.

I’m bullish on Soderstrom, at least relative to where he finds himself in these power rankings. Sure, he was atrocious in 2023, but he was still trying to play catcher then, despite looking overmatched defensively. It’s reasonable to assume that being in so far over your head at the toughest position on the diamond could affect your swing. He rebounded with much better numbers despite missing time with a wrist injury last year, and he’s still only 23. He boasts massive raw power and a solid sense of the strike zone. His swing is so big that he’s always going to come up empty fairly often, but I have no problem with big swings taken judiciously. The patience-and-power profile has a high ceiling, and Soderstrom has already displayed both parts of it at times.

The other side of the coin? You can’t erase that rough 2023, and Soderstrom has looked out of sorts this spring. Most of the other names here are poor alternatives, however, save for one. Kurtz, the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft, is a year younger and has done nothing but rake since turning pro. He has plenty of power himself, and makes a ton of contact to boot. With Brent Rooker already locked in as a DH, Kurtz could force the A’s into a tough decision in short order. This isn’t a problem, really – oh, too many promising young hitters, what a shame – but it’s an interesting subplot to watch this year. I could be talked into either Soderstrom or Kurtz turning into a mainstay, but getting both playing time could prove tricky.

Let’s be honest: We’ve seen enough to know that Vaughn isn’t a long-term solution at first base. For four straight years, he’s delivered a batting line within shouting distance of league average, with his lackluster power holding him back from doing any better than that. He’s also been one of the worst first base defenders in the league, at a position where very few players are far from average in either direction. This is a classic case of defense only mattering if you aren’t good at offense – no one would care about how Vaughn looks with a glove on if he was hitting 35 homers a year instead of 20. But with his offense looking fully formed and at a fairly low level, the defense adds insult to injury.

That sounds pretty dire. It is pretty dire! But what are the Sox supposed to do? Drury is 32 and coming off a gruesome .169/.242/.228 season (over 360 plate appearances, somehow), plus we’re already penciling him in as a platoon DH. Vargas is their starting third baseman. The upper minors don’t have a ton of options. Maybe the White Sox can catch lightning in a bottle with Thaiss. Maybe they’ll make an interesting waiver pickup or give a hot hand in the minors a shot. But mostly, this is a bad team, and they’re just not bothering to try to improve at first because they have so many holes elsewhere.

There are two ways to think about Milwaukee’s spot on this list. One is that they really should try harder. The defending NL Central champions, 28th on a list where plenty of teams project to outproduce them with waiver wire pickups and minor leaguers? It’s a bad look. But I subscribe to a different view: The Brewers are doing a great job, and the ranking is silly.

Hoskins wasn’t very good in 2024. He’s 32. He missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL. Could that trajectory continue? Sure. But in the first six years of his career, he was 26% above average offensively and had the underlying data to back it up. He has top-shelf power and walks a ton. It’s easy to imagine Hoskins being a difference maker on offense; he did it for a long time. And for what it’s worth, he’s been superb this spring.

Maybe he’ll flame out. Maybe this projection, a 106 wRC+ with bad defense, is accurate. If that’s the case, the backups are unexciting. Black might never hit for enough power to stick at first. Canha is 36 and trending down. Bauers has played five big league seasons and never compiled even a league average batting line; he’s probably not the answer at an offense-friendly position. But so what? The rival Cubs are 15th on this list, but less than a win better than the Brewers. So few teams are great at first base that being bad doesn’t hurt you too much on a relative basis, unless you’re really bad. I like the upside gamble with Hoskins, so long as they move on quickly if things don’t pan out.

Hey, if you’re bad, you might as well try to find players who can make you good again. The Marlins traded for Mervis, who wore out his welcome in the Cubs organization with an abysmal major league cup of coffee and a bad 2024 in the minors, so that they could give him a chance to play every day. He probably won’t pan out. He has a ton of swing-and-miss in his game and so-so plate discipline, a combination that even massive sluggers struggle to overcome. The odds of him putting it together are slim, though they aren’t zero.

Bride was on a similar trajectory last offseason – DFA’ed by the woeful A’s in February after two failed cracks at the big leagues – but he hit well at all levels in 2024 and rejuvenated his career. He’ll split time between DH and first; Mervis will get plenty of rest against lefties. At 29, Bride probably won’t be a part of the next good Marlins team, but maybe he can fetch a return at the trade deadline at least.

De Los Santos is the most interesting of this group to me. Can he make contact in the major leagues? I’m skeptical. But if he can, or even if he can replicate his not-so-hot Triple-A strikeout and walk numbers, he’s going to hit a ton of homers. He clocked 40 in the minors last year. Maybe he’s just a Quad-A guy in the end, but there’s no time like the present to find out.

Toglia is regarded as an excellent first base defender. He’s enormous (6-foot-5 with a pterodactyl wingspan) and has great footwork around the bag. Infielders and coaches alike praise his ability to corral errant throws, either with a dexterous scoop or a prodigious stretch. I’ve never watched Keith Hernandez call a Rockies game, but I feel confident that he’d come away impressed by Toglia’s defensive game.

But can he hit? Probably not, if we’re being honest. Even in the minors, Toglia ran enormous strikeout rates. Major league breaking balls eat him alive; he chases sliders and curveballs at an unconscionable rate, coming up empty on more than half of his swings against them., and he’s nearly as bad against changeups and splitters. That huge frame produces plus raw power, but power isn’t enough when you strike out a third of the time and hardly ever walk.

Toglia wouldn’t be the first hitter undone by an inability to deal with secondary pitches. But he also wouldn’t be the first power hitter to figure it out in the majors and turn into a star. At the moment, the former looks much more likely than the latter, but the Rockies will never find out whether Toglia can adjust if they don’t give him the opportunity to do so, and it’s not like they’re blocking anyone of consequence at the position by letting him play.