ALDS Game One Preview: Minnesota
For the fourth time this millennium, the American League Division Series will feature the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees. The last three times, this matchup has resulted in a Yankees win. The Yankees are largely considered the favorites, with a -180 moneyline to win the series according to BoDog as of this writing. However, the talent spread between these two teams is nowhere near this large, and we should expect a tightly contested series from game one.
This first game will feature my personal selection for the American League Cy Young on the mound for the Twins and the winner of the 2010 AL Comeback Player of the Year Award: Francisco Liriano. Liriano has turned into a bonafide ace for the Twins staff, posting a 3.62 ERA and even better peripheral numbers, including a 2.66 FIP and a 3.06 xFIP. Basically, Liriano excels in every controllable aspect of pitching, striking out over a batter per inning, walking less than three per nine innings, and allowing one home run only about every two full games. He keeps the ball on the ground (53.6% GB rate) and induces swings and misses at a lofty 12.6% rate.
The left handed Liriano will face a powerful Yankees lineup that is deep from 1-9. Liriano will have the platoon advantage against the Yankees emergent second baseman Robinson Cano as well as the bottom end of their order in center fielder Curtis Granderson and left fielder Brett Gardner. The best hitters in the Yankees lineups, at least according to CHONE projections, are Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. The switch hitting Teixeira and the right-handed Rodriguez will both own the platoon edge over Liriano. Even if he can get past that duo, however, he won’t be out of the woods – CHONE projects every single starter in the Yankees lineup as an above average hitter.
The Twins lineup, quite formidable as well. Ron Gardenhire “hinted strongly” that he wouldn’t stray from his game 162 lineup in the playoffs, a lineup which looked like this:
CF Denard Span
2B Orlando Hudson
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
DH Jim Thome
1B Michael Cuddyer
RF Jason Kubel
3B Danny Valencia
SS J.J. Hardy
There’s no Justin Morneau here, but this lineup is still good top to bottom. The only below average hitters by CHONE here are Hardy, who makes up for it with top-tier defense at shortstop, and Valencia, who may not maintain a .345 BABIP but has put up an excellent 122 wRC+ so far as a MLB player. Mauer is possibly the best hitter in this whole series, and even without the pop that made his magical 2009 MVP season, he still managed a 136 wRC+ in 2010. Thome, of course, has been one of the league’s best stories, and his massive power makes him a threat every time up. Delmon Young still never walks but is another legitimate power threat, and Jason Kubel functions as a kind of Thome-lite at the plate. Denard Span and Orlando Hudson set the table well for the middle of the order and have a bit of pop by themselves as well.
Thome, Kubel, Mauer, and Span will all give up the platoon advantage to New York starting pitcher CC Sabathia. Of that quartet, only Span has exhibited reverse platoon splits. Sabathia should be able to attack the other three, a trio which comprises much of the power of the Twins lineup. However, should the first three hitters manage to find their way on, it will be in front of right handers Young and Cuddyer, who will have the platoon advantage and thus may be key for the Twins in game 1.
This game marks the inaugural postseason game at Minnesota’s Target Field. In order to bring home a win, the equation for the Twins is simple: get some support for Francisco Liriano and let the ace go to work. Liriano will be the real story on Wednesday night – he’s the ace of the staff making his first postseason start against the mighty Yankees. If he can get it done with just a little support from his hitters, the Twins should be looking at a series lead heading into game two.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
I am really, really hoping for a good season. I don’t know if I can handle the Twins curling up in the fetal position against the Yankees again.
This author seems to be too enthusiastic in assigning the Twins a clear cut advantage in game one starters.
… and no mention of the Yankees significant bullpen advantage.
But i guess writing why the yankees will win is boring so…
For what it’s worth, the Twins bullpen FIP is .15 lower than that of the Yankees.
Yeah, looking at the FIP of an entire bullpen in a short 5 game series with 2 offdays….
And you gave someone a hard time for looking at ERA+… pot meet kettle.
Yankees bullpen advantage? I don’t see it.
yeah, liriano’s 115 era+ has to look pretty imposing to those yankee bats, i bet they’re shaking in their footie pajamas right now
Using ERA+ as your preferred metric.
Convenient.
Do you also open bottles with your teeth and rub sticks together to make fire?
It’s actually kind of refreshing, considering today I turned on ESPN and heard two of three “analysts” claim they would take CC Sabathia over any pitcher in baseball in a game 5 situation. That’s just funny.
using ad hominem attacks, and representing the ridiculous hubris of your kind.
convenient.
do you also vote republican, and hate kittens?
but no, i’ll bite: how about a hr/9 half his career average, an hr/fb just over half his career average, and a bb/9 better than his career average by almost half a walk, and a 5% better gb rate than his career average? and not one start all year with more than 8 IP, and what i am to understand is a very good twins infield defense behind him
Yes, but you’re forgetting Liriano’s career spanned just 357.1 IP coming into this season. Liriano had also pitched just one and a half seasons off of Tommy John surgery coming into the year. I think his performance this season is a better indicator of his true ability.
And I’m not sure how ERA+ can be completely accurate based on one season of games in Target Field.
true, i hadnt realized how short his past few seasons had really been… but still, why doesnt the ‘due for regression’ meme of fangraphs apply to their golden boy liriano when it does for everyone else on the planet?
Fredsbank: If Liriano is due for “regression” he should improve. An unnatural hr/fb rate is countered by a very high BABIB. You cannot deny a pitcher with such a high K/9 rate as well as such a strong GB/FB rate is a rare talent. To say Liriano isn’t significantly better than his ERA or ERA+ suggests is nonsensical. Now an argument about the stamina of Liriano esp vs Sabathia is very relevant. Liriano could certainly be breaking down while Sabathia seems like he could pitch 8 innings on 3 days rest for 3 months and be ok
Here’s your playoff preview: http://thebeenstew.com/2010/10/05/stirring-the-pot-2010-playoff-predictions/
Regression works both ways Fredsbank.
Jack,
Since you brought up the issue of L/R splits, it would behoove you to note that A-Rod has extreme reverse splits this year. And no, this is likely not just an issue of SSS. Through much of the year, lefties (and, less effectively, righties) have been pitching him inside as his hip condition has had him been unable to turn on those pitches.
I like Liriano and I’m happy to see him back to the kind of form he had before the injury but he seems unable to go deep into the games and tonight he faces a lineup whose best ability is working the count and kicking opposing starters out of the game early. Everything can happen in a single game but it is hard to imagine Liriano doing what he usually doesn’t – going deep – and the Yankees not doing what they usually do – kicking opposing starters out of the game. I expect Liriano will go 5 innings, maybe 6, but even 6.1 would be a huge surprise. He went 7 IP at Target field against the Yankees in May but October is not May so I guess he will face tougher hitters than Russo and Cervelli.
I’m glad the twins drew the Yankees for the ALDS – getting the Yankee monkey off their backs will be great for momentum through the ALCS and WS.
Also, Sabathia is overrated. I bet Punto gets put in the lineup for no reason and hits a home run off of him. It would be even better if he slid headfirst into home plate.
Be careful what you ask for. the yankees are more than happy to be playing the powerless twins.
Yes, Sabathia is “overrated”.
230+ innings every year with ERA’s in the low 3’s. 5 straight 5+ WAR seasons. 49.5 WAR already at age 30.
So overrated. Hall of Famers are overrated.
Winning and Consistency are not important, Steve.
Only FIP is important.
Dunno, liriano’s been gawd awful in his last few starts (albeit, in one he came out due to a “stomach ailment”) as in 13.3IP/12ER; and the yankees have taken their last 14 of 16 from twins… guess this is why they’ll play the games
So I’m glad to learn I can’t control innings pitched
So what exactly is the argument for Liriano over King Felix for the Cy Young?
his FIP, because as matt notes above, FIP is all that matters
I would rather have CC pitching for me than Liriano tonight. Experience in these high pressure situations is a huge plus.
RobCan brought up very good points. A guy with IP concerns is pitching against a very good and patient lineup.
I’ll only be surprised if this series results in a Twins advancement. The Twins were in the position to do damage in last years series but couldn’t hold leads.
Season pitching stats versus all teams and performance against the NYY are two different things.
All that matters in games is runs allowed versus runs scored. Liriano is not facing the NYY in a batting cage. We’re not trying to figure true talent, we’re trying to predict which team will win the game.
If FIP is so important, why hasn’t FIB been created? Shouldn’t a hitter’s performance be adjusted for the defense he’s hitting into? Translate that into expected batting runs and it would be a better measure to use in the WAR than the actual performance.