Amid the Collapse of Their Pitching, the Mets Are Barely Hanging On

Once upon a time — as of June 12, to be exact — the Mets had the best record in the majors (45-24) and a 5 1/2-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. That afternoon, however, their rotation took a major hit when Kodai Senga strained his right hamstring. He hasn’t fully recovered his form, and it’s been mostly downhill for the Mets since then, even with their attempts to fortify their bullpen at the trade deadline, the arrival of some impressive rookie starters, and an MVP-caliber stretch by Juan Soto. The team entered Sunday on an eight-game losing streak that pushed them to the brink of elimination from the NL East race, and in danger of falling out of the third NL Wild Card spot.

The combination of Pete Alonso’s walk-off three-run homer off the Rangers’ Luis Curvelo, and losses by both the division-leading Phillies and the Giants (who now trail the Mets by 1 1/2 games in the Wild Card race) helped the Mets stave off those ignominious scenarios for the moment. Even so, the Phillies’ magic number to clinch is one, as they lead the NL East by 12 games with 12 to play. Not only are the Giants (75-74) on the Mets’ tail, but the Diamondbacks (75-75) are just two games behind, with the Reds (74-75) 2 1/2 behind.

Up through June 12, the Mets were playing at a 106-win pace. They’ve played 81 games since then — half a season — doing so at a 98-loss pace. Their Playoff Odds are still fairly robust given that dismal stretch, but you’d have a hard time convincing any Mets fan of that forecast:

You don’t need a guy in a hot dog suit emerging from a wrecked hot dog-shaped car to identify the primary culprit of this mess: it’s the pitching.

Up until mid-June, both the Mets’ rotation and their bullpen had posted ERAs below 3.00, with that of the starters leading the majors and that of the relievers second only to the Giants. For the starters, who collectively ranked 19th in our preseason Positional Power Rankings, that was quite an overachievement, in part because even before the Grapefruit League opener, the team lost Sean Manaea to a lat strain and Frankie Montas to an oblique strain. Despite those injuries, the makeshift starting five — holdovers Senga, Tylor Megill and David Peterson, plus newcomers Griffin Canning and Clay Holmes — all had ERAs of 3.76 or lower, with all but Canning having a FIP of 3.90 or lower as well.

But literally as they reached that high-water mark, things started going awry. In that June 12 start at Citi Field, Senga limited the Nationals to one first-inning single through 5 1/3 innings. With one out in the sixth, he ran to cover first base after CJ Abrams hit a sharp grounder to Alonso. His throw to the pitcher was high, and while leaping to catch the ball, Senga extended his right leg far enough for his toe to graze the corner of the bag in time to beat Abrams — but immediately grabbed his right hamstring upon landing, then tumbled to the ground. Diagnosed with a Grade 1 right hamstring strain, he missed a month and hasn’t been right since. Through June 12, he’d posted a 1.47 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 73.2 innings, with six quality starts out of 13. Since then, the 32-year-old righty has been rocked for a 5.90 ERA and 5.77 FIP in 39.2 innings while going 0-for-9 in terms of quality starts, struggling so mightily that he agreed to be optioned to Triple-A Syracuse on September 5. The Mets believe that his problems, which include significant spikes in his walk and home run rates as well as a drop in strikeout rate, are traceable to the injury. From MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo:

Mets officials believe Senga’s leg injury may have caused him to overcompensate in other parts of his delivery. Meticulous with his mechanics, Senga has often admitted to feeling uncomfortable when some part of his kinetic chain feels out of whack. Last summer, he cited his mechanics multiple times as the reason for his slow return from a left calf injury.

After a couple of bullpen sessions, Senga made a strong start on Friday against the Red Sox’s Triple-A Worcester affiliate, striking out eight in six innings while allowing just three hits and one run. He isn’t eligible to be recalled until September 20 unless the Mets make an IL move, in which case he would be on track to return on September 17 or 18 against the Padres, slotting into the rotation spots of either Jonah Tong or Brandon Sproat (more on whom below).

Two days after Senga went down, Megill left his start against the Rays after 3 2/3 innings, having allowed seven hits and six runs. He described feeling “some pulling” in his elbow, and was diagnosed with an elbow sprain, though the Mets never clarified which ligament was damaged. He began a rehab assignment on August 12 with Double-A Binghamton, making two starts there and four for Syracuse. Unfortunately, his results soon deteriorated; after allowing just one run (unearned) and walking two in 10 innings over his first three starts, he allowed 11 runs and walked eight in 10 innings over his last three, then was shut down after experiencing tightness in his elbow. The Mets sent him for another MRI, and at last word, he was getting second and third opinions. That isn’t good, and at this juncture, it’s reasonable to assume that he’s done for the season.

Just a couple of weeks after Senga and Megill went down, Canning ruptured his left Achilles tendon in his June 26 start, ending his season after a promising start with a new team. While he pitched only 76.1 innings, his 3.77 ERA and 4.05 FIP were better than his marks in any of his five seasons with the Angels, two of which included even fewer innings.

The only thing that prevented the Mets from suddenly being down five of their top seven starting pitchers in terms of expected innings was the return of Montas on June 24 against the Braves, but after delivering five shutout innings in his season debut, he was torched for 26 earned runs over his next 31.2 innings, then exiled to the bullpen; late last month, he was discovered to have a torn ulnar collateral ligament and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Manaea, who in late June was diagnosed with a loose body (bone chip) in his elbow, returned with a 3 1/3-inning relief appearance on July 13, then joined the rotation after the All-Star break, but he’s been rocked for a 5.76 ERA and 1.8 homers per nine in 50 innings without registering a quality start. Unfortunately, his performance fits right in with the rest of the starters since Senga’s injury:

Since losing Senga, the Mets have gotten just 14 quality starts — six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs — in 81 games, a rate that’s about half the NL average (34.6%) and lower than the full-season rate of any team in either league. Half of those quality starts have been by Peterson, who made the NL All-Star team but has struggled in the second half due to higher walk and hard-hit rates. Over that 81-game span, Mets starters have thrown the second-fewest innings of any team (381.2); they overtook the White Sox (381) on Sunday. That’s an average of just 4.71 innings per start, placing an inordinate burden on the bullpen.

In the table above, I’ve excluded the seven pitchers (including Megill) who have made exactly one start since June 12 while lasting fewer than five innings, some of whom (like Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán) were intended as openers. The only two starters who have produced ERAs below 4.50 in that span are the aforementioned pair of late-season call-ups, who together account for six of the staff’s seven quality starts besides those of Peterson. In late June, Eric Longenhagen ranked Sproat, Tong, and McLean 1-2-3 atop the Mets’ prospect list. Without them, the Mets might be in even worse shape.

The 24-year-old McLean, a third-round 2023 pick out of Oklahoma State, began the season with five starts at Binghamton (where he spent most of last year) before moving up to Syracuse in early May; in 113.2 innings between the two levels, he posted a 2.46 ERA and 3.67 FIP with a 27.2% strikeout rate. “He’s commanding six different pitches with exciting precision for a guy who hasn’t been focused on pitching for very long,” wrote Longenhagen in June, referring to McLean having done double duty as a designated hitter in 2023 and ’24 before the Mets abandoned the experiment (he was a two-way player in college). “His curveball and changeup project to be viable weapons against left-handed hitters (though both are underused right now), while his sweeper/sinker combo is tailor-made to thwart righties… He has the stuff of a no. 4/5 starter right now and only needs to improve either his breaking ball quality or command to be a firmer mid-rotation starter.”

With Sunday’s six shutout innings — his third scoreless start out of six, and his fifth of at least six innings — McLean has now thrown 151.2 between Binghamton, Syracuse, and the majors, up from last year’s 109.2; at some point, he’ll likely face an innings limit. Sproat, who will turn 25 on Wednesday, was the team’s second-round pick out of the University of Florida. He had something of a disappointing season at Syracuse, with a 4.24 ERA, 4.20 FIP, and 22.1% strikeout rate in 121 innings. “Sproat’s ability to miss bats with any of his pitches has taken a huge nose dive,” wrote Longenhagen in June. “He was generating plus miss across his entire repertoire in 2024 but doesn’t have a single offering playing to that level of quality now. It isn’t as if Sproat has lost three ticks on his fastball; he’s still touching 100 and sitting 96 and the movement profile of his pitches haven’t changed. He has simply lost feel for locating his stuff in spots that generate whiffs…”

Thankfully Sproat did start to miss bats after that was written; in July and August, he struck out 30% of hitters. He turned in six shutout innings against the Rangers on Saturday, and has totaled 133 innings for the season, up from 116.1 last year.

The 22-year-old Tong, a seventh-round 2022 pick out of Georgia Premier Academy, spent most of this season absolutely overmatching hitters at Binghamton before making two starts at Syracuse. He put up an eye-opening 1.43 ERA and 1.72 FIP with a 40.5% strikeout rate in 113.2 innings at those two stops, but has found rougher sledding in the majors; his ERA doesn’t even reflect three additional unearned runs from his debut in a 19-9 slugfest against the Marlins on August 29. He didn’t even make it out of the first inning on Friday night against the Rangers opposite old friend Jacob deGrom, getting shellacked for six runs while walking three and surrendering four hits. He’s now at 125.1 innings between the minors or majors, which — you guessed it — is a career high.

On that note, beyond the walk and strikeout rates that have generally moved in the wrong direction over the past three months, and the failure to chalk up quality starts, what stands out among the Mets starters is their innings counts. Peterson’s 162.1 innings is a career high, surpassing his 148 from 2023 and 157 from last year (including the majors, minors, and postseason). Holmes’ 151 innings is a career high as well, up from 75 last year (including the postseason) and a high of 136.1 in 2016, set when he pitched for the Pirates’ Double-A Altoona affiliate; he hadn’t been above 100 innings since 2018, the year he debuted in the majors. Senga, who’s thrown 113.1 innings, threw 166.1 in 2023, his first season with the Mets, but shoulder capsule and calf strains limited him to just 10.1 last year including the playoffs. And as noted, the rookies are now in uncharted territory.

As for the bullpen, though closer Edwin Díaz has pitched exceptionally well, the Mets’ other higher-leverage guys have fallen apart:

President of baseball operations David Stearns traded for Rogers, Helsley, and Soto ahead of the July 31 deadline, but only the first of those three relievers has pitched well since the trade. Helsley has been absolutely brutal, allowing far too many walks and homers to be useful, and meanwhile among the top holdovers, Brazobán, Garrett, and Stanek have followed suit. Raley — who returned from Tommy John surgery right after the All-Star break — has pitched well enough to bump some of the struggling guys down the pecking order, but it hasn’t been enough.

With no games scheduled either today or next Monday, the Mets have sent Manaea to the bullpen, with plans for him to piggyback in relief of Holmes on Tuesday against the Padres. Perhaps he can help, given that despite his home run issues, his 29.2% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate have been career bests, albeit in a comparatively small sample.

Long story short, this is an organization that is running out of arms at the wrong time. Some of it comes down to bad luck in the injury department. Garrett spent 15 days on the IL in late August and early September due to elbow inflammation and has been wobbly since returning, and I haven’t even mentioned the losses of relievers such as Max Kranick, A.J. Minter, Dedniel Núñez, and Danny Young — not that any were difference-makers, but just other options. The team tried to fortify that unit, but it just hasn’t worked out, because relievers are fickle, particularly when overused. In retrospect, Stearns probably should have sprung for a starter at the trade deadline as well. Now he and manager Carlos Mendoza will have to hope that the team can make it to the finish line.