Andruw’s Best Case Scenario

Over the weekend, Andruw Jones signed a minor league contract with the Texas Rangers that will pay him $500,000 if he makes the opening day roster and has incentives that could push his total compensation up to just over $1 million. This is, obviously, a huge fall from last winter, when he coaxed an $18 million per year salary out of the Dodgers based on his strong performance history.

However, as we all know, Jones’ career track has been on a noticeable downward trend. Let me show you four seasons of performance:

Age 26: .321/.390/.561, .403 wOBA, 679 PA
Age 27: .282/.346/.467, .348 wOBA, 675 PA
Age 28: .252/.333/.449, .344 wOBA, 555 PA
Age 29: .172/.261/.253, .235 wOBA, 253 PA

That’s a pretty nasty downward trend in what should be the prime of a career. From superstar at 26 to worst hitter in baseball at 29… that’s quite the fall from grace. Except, you may have noticed, those numbers don’t belong to Andruw Jones. Those numbers come from the career log of Jermaine Dye.

It has seemingly passed the memory of some, but it wasn’t too long ago that we saw a prominant right-handed power hitting outfielder collapse entirely at a young age. In what should have been the best years of his career, Dye posted one of the worst seasons in recent baseball history.

And then he came back.

Since that awful 2003 season, Dye has posted seasonal wOBAs of .338, .417, .343, and .346. In fact, his five seasons since his disaster season are actually better than the five seasons that led up to his collapse. Not only did he return to previous form, but he raised game even beyond previously established levels.

Now, in Dye’s case, there was obviously extenuating circumstances – he fouled a ball off his leg in the 2001 playoffs, fracturing his tibia, and faced significant knee problems for the next few years. There is no doubt that Dye’s health was a significant issue during his collapse. Once Dye’s knee regained full health, so did the thunder in his bat.

Should we consider Andruw’s weight problems to be similar to Dye’s knee problems? Well, we might have a lot less sympathy for Jones, who caused his own physical issues, when Dye was the recipient of some bad luck. However, whatever caused them, the underlying fact is that both had significant physical problems that limited their ability to hit a baseball, and that Jones’ problems are no less fixable than Dye’s were, given he puts in the effort to get himself back into shape.

Make no mistake – I am not saying that Andruw Jones, heading into his age 32 season, is about to rip off five seasons that match what Jermaine Dye has done since 2004. However, I think we should all keep Dye in mind when we jump to conclusions about what 250 terrible plate appearances mean in the context of a player losing all abilities to hit a baseball.

For the Rangers, this is a pretty terrific move. The Ballpark in Arlington is a great place to hit, and a little confidence goes a pretty long way when you’re trying to convince someone that their hard work has a payoff. If Jones really does commit himself to getting back in baseball shape to try and save his career, the Rangers could easily find themselves with a guy who reminds everyone that he can still hit a baseball.

Just like we shouldn’t have written Dye’s eulogy in 2003, neither should we kill off the career of Andruw Jones prematurely. He’s going to have to work his tail off, but there’s upside here.