Angels On the Rubber

Though the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim sport a pythagorean record nine games worse than their actual mark, they have outdone this run-based estimator each year since 2004. Credit Mike Scioscia as a tremendous manager, or the makeup of the team, but the fact remains they currently own the best record in baseball. On top of that they hold an 11.5 game lead over the second place Rangers; quite honestly, barring some drastic, unforeseen event, this division is all but locked up.

One of the reasons the Halos have been so effective to date is their starting rotation. With that in mind, let’s take a look at its members and see if we can get to know these pitchers a little better.

John Lackey
9-2, 3.10 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 80.1% LOB, 3.40 K/BB
HR/FB between 5.7% and 9.0% from 2004-07; currently 12.4%

Ervin Santana
12-5, 3.38 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, .294 BABIP, 74.5% LOB, 3.67 K/BB
2007: 150.0 IP, 174 H, 96 ER, 26 HR, 58 BB, 126 K
2008: 149.1 IP, 130 H, 59 ER, 14 HR, 39 BB, 143 K

Joe Saunders
14-5, 3.09 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, .244 BABIP, 77.4% LOB, 1.74 K/BB
6th lowest K/9 at 4.38, 4th lowest BABIP, 1st lowest LD rate at 13.5%

Jered Weaver
9-9, 4.37 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, .266 BABIP, 71.7% LOB, 2.59 K/BB
Most numbers better than 2007 but less flyballs with an increase in HR/FB

Jon Garland
10-6, 4.30 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, .299 BABIP, 72.4% LOB, 1.40 K/BB
5th lowest K/9 at 4.11, FIP 4.24-4.36 from 2005-07
47.9% GB (from 39.4% in 07), 28.4% FB (from 37.7% in 07), but 11.9% HR/FB (from 7.1% in 07)

Of these five pitchers, based on their BABIPs and strand rates, it appears that Santana and Garland are the most “for real.” Weaver’s strand rate is right around league average but his BABIP has been well below average. Lackey’s strand rate is likely unsustainable, regardless of how talented he may be, and given his BABIPs in the .300+ range over the last few years, a .266 mark is quite low.

Saunders and Santana seem to be on opposite ends of the luck/skills spectrum. Lefty Joe has built his seasonal line upon an unsustainably low BABIP, a high 77.4% strand rate, one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, and one of the lowest rates of line drives in the last twenty years. Could he defy the odds and prove to be regression-proof? Sure, it happens time to time. I just wouldn’t bet on him being as effective from here on out. Santana, on the other hand, has more earthbound numbers and, as surprising as it may be that he is the same guy that looked lucky to have a job last year, he has not benefited from too much luck this year.

When Saunders, Lackey, and Weaver experience their likely regressions it won’t hurt the Angels chances of making the playoffs but it does call into question who may start in that division series against the Rays/Red Sox/Yankees. Lackey is going to be the #1, and based on performance to date, Santana should be #2, but who would you start in that series? Do you trust Saunders enough to sustain these ridiculous rates? Or would you throw him in regardless given the fact that he is a lefty?