Ethier vs Pierre

When the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez last week, many assumed it was to replace the pair of busted free agents signed the last couple of winters, Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones. They were only half right – while Jones takes his rightful seat on the bench, Joe Torre remains enamored with Juan Pierre, who has been anointed as the team’s center fielder for the remainder of the year. To make room for Ramirez, Andre Ethier heads to the bench.

From an offensive perspective, this is ridiculous. Pierre is hitting .281/.326/.318 compared to Ethier’s .274/.339/.442 mark. Pierre’s abilities on the base paths are canceled out – and then some – by Ethier’s ability to hit the ball out of the infield. In fact, thanks to the Hardball Times newly published rest-of-season Marcel projections and Tom Tango’s Wins Above Replacement calculations, we can quantify the win value differences between the two.

Offensively, Ethier’s expected performance in August and September will be worth about six runs above a replacement level corner outfielder. Not bad for two months. Pierre, on the other hand, pretty much defines replacement level. He’s projected at a whopping half a run over a replacement level center fielder over the next two months. Not impressive, Juan.

So, by giving Pierre a couple hundred at-bats that would have otherwise gone to Ethier, the Dodgers are punting about five runs of offense, which translates to about half a win. Considering how tight most people expect the race to be down the stretch, you don’t just punt several runs for the heck of it.

However, we haven’t taken defense entirely into account yet. Ethier’s five run advantage would only hold if both he and Pierre were average defenders for their respective positions, but the Dodgers clearly believe this isn’t the case, putting Pierre in the line-up for his fly catching ability. John Dewan’s +/- system supports this assertion, having Pierre at +12 plays in CF in 2006 and +9 plays in CF last year. He’s +4 plays in limited time in LF this year. The conclusion for Pierre seems relatively obvious – he’s a better than average defensive CF, probably something like +1.7 runs over the remaining 1/3 of the season.

The picture on Ethier isn’t as clear. Dewan’s +/- loved him in RF last year (+16) but hates him this year (-7), though it has him basically average in each of the last three years in LF. The RF numbers are probably sample size noise, as it’s highly unlikely that Ethier is either good or terrible as a corner OF, given what scouting data and other defensive systems tell us about his abilities. The best assumption is that he’s about average, though we have to make that conclusion with less confidence than with Pierre.

The defensive difference closes the gap, but only partially so. In fact, to balance out the offensive differences over the remaining two months, we’d have to accept that Pierre is both a +10 run defender over a full season in CF and that Ethier is a -13 run defender in RF/LF over a full season. If both of those opinions about their relative defensive abilities were true, they’d be pretty much equal in talent – about 2.5 runs above a replacement level outfielder for the final two months.

The Dodgers obviously believe the defensive difference is large enough to justify giving Pierre at-bats at Ethier’s expense. I doubt they’re right, however. Most likely, they’e punting a couple of runs the rest of the year by choosing the wrong player. But I do think there’s enough vagueness in our ability to evaluate defensive abilities to admit that the Dodgers may not be making the worst decision ever. If they’re right about the defensive difference, it’s not a big deal which one starts.

If they’re not, however, it could cost them the division. Sounds like a high risk, no reward decision to me.