August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 10/18/16

august fagerstrom: hello!

august fagerstrom: I now have bagels, so I am ready to begin the chat

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: hello, Bork!

Bork: Is Bauer done for the off-season? That finger looked naaaaaaaaasty.

august fagerstrom: well, if the Indians advance, they wouldn’t *need* Bauer until Game 3 of the World Series, which is on October 28

august fagerstrom: That’s 10 days from now

august fagerstrom: Gut tells me it’d have sealed up enough by then to go?

august fagerstrom: But, yeah

august fagerstrom: The way that finger looked is not what you want

Wazzup: Dave mentioned the other day about Front Offices having advanced stats that we don’t have access to yet. Like for example, HITF/X that was made public a few years back. Is that true? We see so many of these saber metrics these days and some are very very weird/creative. Can you think of any type of saber metric/advanced stat we don’t know of yet? Or even “create” one?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I’m sure teams have all sorts of proprietary measures, particularly with things like fielding

august fagerstrom: But I’d bet most teams have their own WAR/FIP models that, while they may not look too different from what’s in the public sphere, have little tweaks based on what the organization values

Otis Redding: Do the Blue Jays have any chance of making the comeback?

august fagerstrom: Sure! Our playoff odds page has them at 7%, and the 3-0 comeback has happened before (albeit, once in 35 tries)

august fagerstrom: So, somewhere between a 3-7% chance

august fagerstrom: Seems about right

Slew: Would you start Kluber on short rest? The history isn’t good, and if they do get to game 7 (Tito’s stated reason) he’d be doing it again. Why not sacrifice Clevinger and Meritt to the ‘everyone needs rest gods, punt game 4, and go after 5 fully rested?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think there’s another option, really. Kluber on short rest is still probably their best option in this series, so you’ve gotta get that guy on the mound twice is needed

Jesse: What type of production do you see from Swanson in 2017?

august fagerstrom: Similar to this year, probably. League-average or slightly better bat, plus baserunning and defensive value, 3-4 WAR player

Minty: I don’t want to extrapolate SSS, so what do you expect from Benintendi next year?

august fagerstrom: The same things I just said for Swanson but with a better bat, so more like a 4-5 WAR player

Benjamin Dover: Is baseball ever going to see mic’d up umpires explain certain calls/decisions? From what I’ve been reading, no one at the game last night could see the blood.

august fagerstrom: The ump was mic’d up last night and told Bauer as soon as he got to the mound that it was too much blood

august fagerstrom: Unless I’m misunderstanding the question

Michael: What would be your solution to some of the Angels large holes? Wait for Jahmai Jones for left field? Go ofter someone like Justin Turner for 2B/3B?

august fagerstrom: Honestly? I would trade Mike Trout

august fagerstrom: Which is much easier said than done when you aren’t the one who runs the team that *has* Mike Trout

august fagerstrom: But I have a really hard time seeing any option that doesn’t result in “Mike Trout leaves in free agency and we have nothing to show for it”

Greg: If Andrew Miller was a free agent would he be worth #2 starter money, say 3 years 60m, if only for postseason value?

august fagerstrom: Maybe a bit high on the AAV but honestly don’t think that’s too far off

august fagerstrom: It’s funny, his contract looked big for a reliever at the time, and now at $9M per, it looks like an absolute bargain

Hannah Hochevar: For real, though: how many innings can Andrew Miller pitch this post-season? Seems like it’s ‘all of them.’

august fagerstrom: They’re not gonna start using him any differently than they have been

august fagerstrom: So, like, 1.5 innings per game, on average

august fagerstrom: Usage might even ramp up as they get closer to finish line

Youngman: Do you agree with Keith Law’s assessment on Tim Tebow?

august fagerstrom: I mean, I’m not a scout, so I have no idea

august fagerstrom: But, yeah, he’s probably not very good

august fagerstrom: I *want* him to be good, but alas

Kristen: Which SP has the largest repertoire of pitches? Darvish?

august fagerstrom: Darvish or Bauer in how many they *can* throw, those guys plus Cueto and Stroman and I’m sure some others in how many they *do* throw

Lure of the Animal: Great observation in your article about how Bauer would probably be a decent reliever. Is there a market efficiency to exploit by acquiring mediocre starters and grooming them into relievers, rather than paying the rising premium for an established reliever?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think we saw the Royals do this for several seasons before/during their championship runs

Dock Ellis: Important question: what kind of bagel? Everything? Onion? Soggy?

august fagerstrom: Just boring, plain bagels I cooked in my toaster. One cream cheese, one peanut butter, and a tall glass of water. Hadn’t eaten yet today so needed something quick

Zach: Terry Francona a HOFer? 1381 W, a .533 WP, 2x WS Champ as a manager. Or does he need to break Cleveland’s curse too?

august fagerstrom: WS win in Cleveland gets him in, I think

august fagerstrom: He’s also the MVP of this series, if the Indians wind up winning, IMO. Not sure if that can happen, but he deserves it

Dr. Frank Jobe: I’m enjoying the temporary transformation of Fangraphs into www.andrewmillersslider.com

august fagerstrom: Dave Cameron stopped me last night from writing another Miller article this afternoon

august fagerstrom: I’ll get it in in the next couple days, rest assured

EvanC: As pitchers pitch less innings (assuming the bullpen revolution continues), will we have to lower WAR standards for HOF pitchers? Currently, no SP has a WAR north of 65.

august fagerstrom: I think this is a problem already

august fagerstrom: On a related note, Sam Miller made a very compelling case earlier this year that the minimum-innings requirement for a qualified starter needs to be changed: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29533

august fagerstrom: I think it’s really hard to argue with that piece. MLB really should be on that.

Zach: Miller this postseason: 9IP, 20K, 0R, 4H, 2BB. What do you even say at this point? Gotta be ALCS MVP right?

august fagerstrom: He’ll win it, if the Indians do, for sure. I think Tito deserves it for leveraging him in a way that allowed him to rack up those numbers, in conjunction with the rest of the moves he made

Mason: If the Indians make Miller available in the offseason do they get more than, less than, or an equal package to what they gave up? And should make him available?

august fagerstrom: They get more, and that will be one of the fascinating storylines of the offseason

E: Last night during the broadcast it was mentioned that Zach Mcallister was traded to the Indians for Austin Kearns.

Austin Kearns is a guy who played in the MLB!

august fagerstrom: Yeah, that was a good deal. McAllister was a PTBNL. Then the Indians re-signed Kearns like four months later

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: Why has Cleveland’s pitching been so successful against Toronto? Is it just Andrew Miller and friends being dominant, or are they exploiting some weakness?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I covered a lot of this in my Tomlin piece from Sunday: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-josh-tomlin-beat-two-of-baseballs-best/

august fagerstrom: They’ve got a great gameplan against the Blue Jays, throwing tons of breaking balls (career-highs from Kluber and Tomlin) and when they do throw hard stuff, they’ve kept it almost exclusively on the outer-half

august fagerstrom: That’s playoff scouting 101, with great execution by the pitching staff

august fagerstrom: Relievers have been following it, too. They’ve just given Toronto a steady diet of breaking balls and outside fastballs and they haven’t been able to adjust bak

august fagerstrom: back*

Web: What defenses in the past years have been as good as these Cubbies?

august fagerstrom: none?

august fagerstrom: It’s tricky now, the distinction between *defense* and *run prevention unit*

august fagerstrom: I think of a defense as the individual collection of defensive talents, in which case I might take the recent Royals teams over this year’s Cubs

august fagerstrom: But I think you consider the positioning and the flexibility and how well everything the Cubs do works together, and they might be the best of all-time

Q-Ball: Rizzo and Russell are a combined 2 for 49 in the playoffs, with 9Ks. Would you move them around the batting order? Or is this just batted ball/SSS luck?

august fagerstrom: the latter

august fagerstrom: “luck” isn’t the word I’d use, but I don’t think moving around guys in the batting order would do anything. Rizzo and Russell are still mostly Rizzo and Russell moving forward

Kristen: What does/should TEX do in the offseason about their rotation? Beyond the top 2 guys it’s horrible, but there’s going to be nothing good on the market. Should they reunite with FA C. J. Wilson? Jaime Garcia if STL declines his option?

august fagerstrom: they need guys to fill out the rotation and eat innings, as much as I don’t love using that word. Wilson and Garcia are the opposite of the guys I’d target in Texas’ situation

august fagerstrom: they need to set themselves up so they aren’t in a situation where Derek Holland and Martin Perez are getting crucial starts down the stretch again

Cody: What’s the thought process behind starting Merritt over Cleavinger in Game 5?

august fagerstrom: I really don’t know, to be honest. I guess Merritt is more stretched out than Clevinger, but it probably would’ve been a bullpen game anyway, so not sure how much value there is in that. Now that the bullpen game happened *yesterday* it makes sense, but the decision was made before it was clear that yesterday would turn into a bullpen game

Big Joe Mufferaw: Do the yankees have enough to trade for Trout without including Sanchez?

august fagerstrom: Doubtful

august fagerstrom: Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox could get it done. Tough to picture that many other realistic scenarios

python-r: Does Miller pitch tonight, or do they try to stay away from him, given his recent workload?

august fagerstrom: If they’ve got the lead when Kluber leaves the game Miller will pitch

Chet: Kluber better go 6 or that bullpen is going to be gassed.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, it’s a tricky situation, too, because on the one hand, you take this line of thinking and figure Kluber’s pitch count is probably like 120 tonight. But then you’ve also got to consider that they probably can’t do that, knowing the possibility still exists they’ll need him for Game 7 on three day’s rest

august fagerstrom: Will be fascinating to see how Tito uses him if he runs up the pitch count early

Larry A: Extrapolating from what Ive seen this postseason, do 50% of base stealers come off the bag while standing up?

august fagerstrom: Way too many do for the rule to remain what it is, in my opinion

august fagerstrom: You can’t change physics. You can change the rule

Jeremy: Do you believe some umpires could be more susceptible to pitch framing? It felt like perez had the home plate ump on a string last night

august fagerstrom: Some umpires are better than others, yes

MATT: Sale for JBJ and Devers. Makes sense for the Red Sox does it for the White Sox?

august fagerstrom: No

Web: Do Cubs fans panic if we lose tonight?

august fagerstrom: Don’t know who “we” is but no, nobody should be panicking down 2-1 in the NLCS with those rosters

Zonk: Screw pitching depth, just mortgage the farm for a couple studs like Kershaw or Miller, and who cares about guys 7 through 12. Is this thought valid? Looks that way in the playoffs.

august fagerstrom: Gotta get to the playoffs with everyone in tact, first, which is really, really hard

Cody: As an NE Ohio native, how do you feel about potentially moving on from Chief Wahoo?

august fagerstrom: I think it’s long overdue

Ronnie: Recently re-enjoyed your piece on Estrada from last offseason. Does it feel good to be right, especially considering all the FIP obedient naysayers in the comments following said article?

august fagerstrom: Nope! Just like FIP-oriented pitchers, writing articles is about process, not results. I believe everything I write, what happens afterward to reinforce/disprove what I wrote at the time is out of my control

august fagerstrom: Plus I’m wrong often enough that it would be silly to gloat about articles that make me look good

august fagerstrom: Though that won’t stop me from linking to them on Twitter when they become relevant again 🙂

Matt: I need a soundtrack for the chat!

august fagerstrom: oh, shit

august fagerstrom: I’m listening to Beach House – Teen Dream, which I’ve probably linked to before in here, so apologies for a likely repeat

Zonk: Is Javy Baez’s approach really different in the playoffs, or is this just SSS? He wasn’t that great a hitter in the regular season

august fagerstrom: Jeff’s written twice about swings I took note of when I saw them this postseason — he’s definitely improving his approach, doing a better job of staying back on pitches that he would’ve flailed wildly at a year ago

august fagerstrom: Doubtful that a switch flipped between the regular season and now, but he’s certainly maturing as a hitter

Zonk: Javy Baez and Andrew Miller are all you guys write about lately

august fagerstrom: They’ve been, I think pretty easily, the two most compelling stories of the postseason

august fagerstrom: We can write more about Andre Ethier if you want

Baller Status: I am incredibly nervous everytime Chapman pitches, and I think it is more than its just late in the game. Why? Cure this for me!!!

august fagerstrom: recency bias

Craig: Do you think Coppy and co truly don’t care about Matt Kemp’s defense? They just desperately needed power, they’ll be happy if he continues to slug close to 500 right?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think a single front office in baseball thinks in terms of “needing power”

august fagerstrom: Teams need production, period

august fagerstrom: Production is the sum of what a player provides, and power is just one sliver of that

Scott: Between Kershaw and Miller, who would you take to get you three outs? Throw 2 innings? 3?

august fagerstrom: If Kershaw knows he’s only going the 1/2/3 innings and can pitch like a reliever? Kershaw

Graham: someone should make a pitching metric like ERA but instead of having earned runs given to the starting pitcher (or reliever) after they leave the game if the next reliever allows their men on base in, it credits them with an expected runs scored based on the base-out state they left

august fagerstrom: I kinda like this idea

Baller Status: Move Zobrist up to 2 to put another guy who get on in front of Bryant since he is one of the only guys hitting?

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t move the only guy who’s hitting down in the order

august fagerstrom: The reason he hits second is because he is their best hitter

Nelson: Naquin was a 15th overall pick. So far can you say hes outperformed draft day expectations, or hes on-target?

august fagerstrom: Average 6year WAR of the 15th overall pick is in the ~4-5 WAR range, per these (http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/) articles (http://www.hardballtimes.com/how-much-is-a-draft-pick-worth-in-2014/)

august fagerstrom: Naquin was a 2.5 WAR player this year, probably profiles as something like a ~1.5 WAR player next year

august fagerstrom: I’d say he’s more likely than not to break 4.5 WAR by the time he hits free agency

august fagerstrom: Could do it with another good season as soon as next year

Cody Thomas: Who is the most valuable position player so far in the ALCS?

august fagerstrom: Lindor?

august fagerstrom: Chisenhall?

august fagerstrom: Kipnis?

august fagerstrom: IDK, been a pretty even team effort outside of the pitching

Cubbies: What does the Cubs offense need to do in LA to get their bats woken up? Kershaw looming as a Game 5 starter and RP in game 7 brings on memories of Bumgarner in the 2014 WS against KC. Seems to me they need to win 2 in LA.

august fagerstrom: They just need to hit. I don’t know. A lot of people have asked similar questions. I don’t think the Cubs need to do anything radical in changing their lineup around or anything. They have the best team in baseball. They just need to keep being that and beat the other team

august fagerstrom: It’s a boring answer, but I mean, there’s not much they can do other than try their hardest, which is what they’ve been doing all along

Zac: I have a feeling that Kris Bryant is going to hit a Rich Hill curveball 500 ft tonight. Is there a way to bet on that?

august fagerstrom: sure bet me a buck

Mike M: Where do you see Fowler playing next year, and to that point, who is in CF for the Cubs? Bryant?

august fagerstrom: No Kris Bryant will not be the Cubs center fielder next year

t: Doesn’t it seem like there should be something in our marvelous 21st century medical toolbox that would close up a wound like Bauer’s in a few days? Enough to pitch at least? I remember a scene in this documentary called Boondock Saints where they cauterized bullet wounds with a hot iron and that seemed to work out pretty well. Didn’t really matter for Schilling.

august fagerstrom: Read Jeff Passan’s column last night. He wanted to cauterize it and was dead serious about it

GSon: Augie.. Merritt is a command curve/slider/change up guy.. Clevinger works off his poorly commanded fastball. Fastball hitting teams like the Jays.. CRUSH Clevinger.. Junk balling command artists like Merritt give the Jays fits..

august fagerstrom: Yeah, there’s this, too. Merritt is also a lefty pitching against the Blue Jays

JKD: I put Justin Turner down for 6/$150 in the projections, which seemed crazy! Justin Turner! Them I looked at his production the last three years, and projection for next year, and did depreciation from there, and… that’s exactly where it ends up. Maybe he only gets 5 years? But he really is that good, isn’t he? And especially in this market, he’s *got* to get safely over six figures, right?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, Justin Turner is probably one of the leaders for the new “most underrated player in baseball” title

Cubs Fan: Looking at that Miller line from the playoffs (9IP, 20K, 0R, 4H, 2BB) and knowing how crazy it looks, it reminds to marvel at the Kerry Wood 20K game (9IP, 20K, 0R, 1H, 2BB) and wonder at how he did it in considerably harder circumstances.

august fagerstrom: https://twitter.com/AugustFG_/status/788221407515770880

august fagerstrom: Sent that tweet right after the game ended last night

august fagerstrom: “Andrew Miller has 20 strikeouts over his last nine innings, which actually might say more about Kerry Wood, Max Scherzer, and Roger Clemens.”

Andrew: How many times have you watched “Major League” in the past two weeks?

august fagerstrom: none in the last decade

Eduardo: Thoughts on Mike Hazen taking over in Arizona? As a Diamondbacks fan, I’m thrilled they finally hired somebody competent.

august fagerstrom: Seems like a step in the right direction

Marty : Does Duda have positive trade value at ~7million?

august fagerstrom: yes, easily

Big Joe Mufferaw: Would you rather have a Kiermaier or a Nelson Cruz? (Regardless of Age or Money).

august fagerstrom: Kiermaier

Ed: Could Salazar or Carrasco be available in the World Series if the NLCS goes seven games?

august fagerstrom: Salazar still sounds like a possibility out of the bullpen. Carrasco is done

Q-Ball: Should MLB contracts include a “no screwing around with drones” clause?

august fagerstrom: A “no hobbies outside of baseball” clause? No

t: HOLY NUTS. “I even had a soldering iron in my hotel room,” Bauer said. “Instead of going to the ER, I probably should’ve sealed it closed myself.” Bauer is pretty hardcore, gotta give him that. I wonder, if it doesn’t heal up quickly enough, if he goes for it.

august fagerstrom: Knowing Bauer, I’d wager he was totally serious in saying he regrets not sealing it himself too

MATT: Is Javier Baez the most talked about/overrated career .289 OBP player of all time?

august fagerstrom: His value goes far beyond his OBP

august fagerstrom: Also he’s no longer a .289 OBP guy

august fagerstrom: But yeah, the hype’s probably a *bit* overblown. He’s not a regular season MVP candidate or anything

august fagerstrom: But a big part of the reason he’s commanded so much attention lately isn’t just how well he’s been playing, but how *exciting* he is

august fagerstrom: He’s so unique and plays with such a fantastic energy

Ryan Beano: Baez’s defense has been electric this postseason but he’s the second best glove in that middle infield, right?

august fagerstrom: I’m not so sure

Sonny: I got $5 on a KB500 off Hill

Cubbies: In answer to the question who plays CF in Chicago next year…..if the Cubs don’t resign Folwer I look for Almora to at least platoon with Heyward in CF next year. Schwarber in LF. Zobrist plays all over, Baez mostly at 2B and Soler traded. Too bad Soler’s trade value is so low vs last year at this time.

august fagerstrom: A possibility

august fagerstrom: With their flexibility, depth, and ability to spend, the Cubs have an almost infinite number of options, though

august fagerstrom: Be very difficult to predict with any level of accuracy, even relative to normal, inaccurate predictions, what they’re going to do

BlueBird: Why is Joey bats leading off today? I get trying to shake up the lineup but he’s struggling.

august fagerstrom: Because he is still one of their three best hitters

august fagerstrom: People tend to get way too wrapped up in recency bias in the postseason, it seems

august fagerstrom: If Rizzo or Russell had a bad five-game stretch during the regular season, people wouldn’t suddenly be calling for the Cubs’ lineup to shift, or questioning the Blue Jays doing the smart thing by leading off one of their best OBP hitters because he’d gone 1-for-his-last-9

Maverik312: Re: “No hobbies outside of baseball” clause

I recall that Joel Zumaya had a contract clause prohibiting him from playing Guitar Hero because he sprained his wrist playing it.

august fagerstrom: amazing

august fagerstrom: well there you have it

august fagerstrom: thanks for chatting everyone. enjoy baseball. talk to you all a week from an hour ago