August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 10/25/16
| 11:53 |
: hello!
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| 11:53 |
: World Series chat!
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| 11:53 |
: I went to bed at 5AM last night!
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| 11:54 |
: get those questions in and I’ll kick things off about 5 after
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| 11:55 |
: Chat soundtrack: Grizzly Bear – Veckatimest
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| 12:02 |
: alright, let’s just get it going now
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| 12:02 |
: Hello, friend!
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| 12:02 |
: Hi, Bork!
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| 12:02 |
: Credentialed for the first 2 games?
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| 12:03 |
: Credentialed for all games! Will be driving to Chicago on Thursday and crashing at a buddy’s apartment downtown
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| 12:03 |
: Think Salazar can be useful out of the ‘pen? More than useful? Good, even?
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| 12:04 |
: Impossible to say without seeing him throw in-game. Considering he was only bumping Cody Anderson, who in a perfect world would never appear in a WS game, from the roster, I think the bar was set pretty low for how good he’d need to look to be added
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| 12:04 |
: That being said, the fact that Mickey came out and said he could go 65-70 pitches is, I think, an indication of where he’s at, as long as Mickey was being truthful
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| 12:05 |
: Can’t imagine they’d push him that far if they didn’t think he was feeling good
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| 12:05 |
: If MLB was a beer league, which of Chicago or Cleveland would gain an advantage in the WS?
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| 12:05 |
: Cubs, 100%. More balls in play means defense matters more, and their guys who create loft with their swings — Bryant and Schwarber specifically — would be beer league monsters
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| 12:05 |
: Assuming by beer league you mean softball?
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| 12:06 |
: Is there an Indians’ player you’re expecting to play a bigger role than he has to this point? Someone who has flown under the radar?
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| 12:06 |
: Taking this to mean “bigger role than he’s played in the postseason,” because pretty much everyone’s played a big role to get to the World Series, overall. If I’m interpreting that correctly, I’ll say Jose Ramirez
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| 12:06 |
: He was arguably the heartbeat of this team in the regular season, and he’s been pretty AWOL in the playoffs
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| 12:06 |
: Are you ready for the Game 6 series-clinching walk-off Schwarber HR in Wrigley?
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| 12:07 |
: If that’s what’s going to happen, yeah, I am more than ready for that
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| 12:07 |
: So, the Cubs announced the roster and Schwarber is in. Your thoughts? Where does he bat in that lineup?
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| 12:08 |
: Are we certain he’s starting? Or is he going to pinch-hit? Assuming he starts… fifth? Behind Zobrist and ahead of Baez?
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| 12:08 |
: Go, Cubs, go
Go, Cubs, go Hey, Chicago, what do you say The Cubs are gonna win today |
| 12:08 |
: Cleveland Rocks!!
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| 12:08 |
: all sides represented!
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| 12:09 |
: O/U on stolen base attempts off Lester tonight?
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| 12:09 |
: Season-high was six, average was 1.3
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| 12:10 |
: I’ll set it at 2.5
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| 12:10 |
: O/U on bunts against Lester tonight?
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| 12:10 |
: 0.5
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| 12:10 |
: how is the city right now?
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| 12:10 |
: Not sure, to be honest. I have been so, so swamped with work and other personal responsibilities that I’ve pretty much been cooped up in my apartment since Friday
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| 12:11 |
: I imagine it’s going to be lit, though. Particularly with Cavs opener and banner celebration
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| 12:11 |
: Is there going to be a live blog for game 1 tonight? If so, do you know who will be hosting?
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| 12:11 |
: Yeah, Cameron and Swydan are on that tonight
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| 12:11 |
: Ryan Merritt. Does he start in the WS, and if so, what is your projection for him?
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| 12:11 |
: Doubtful. Feels like it either goes Kluber-Bauer-Tomlin with Kluber again on short rest in G4, or if not Kluber, they set Salazar go as long as he can with the backup plan of it being a pen game
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| 12:11 |
: And my projection would not be good, despite how he looked against the Blue Jays
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| 12:12 |
: A friend and I were running through the list of other handsome actor types from the late 80s who would be running Cleveland right now if they’d gotten the Wild Thing Vaughn role instead of Charlie Sheen. Rob Lowe or Tom Cruise someone like that would be the Cleveland Bill Murray today right? the first pitch by wild thing would be amazing
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| 12:12 |
: Tom Hanks is apparently a big Tribe fan
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| 12:12 |
: With both teams having traded for elite relievers from the Yankees, who of those three teams won the trade deadline with those deals? Indians with dominant Miller? Cubs with Chapman (albeit a struggling one)? Or Yankees with three elite, blue-chip prospects?
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| 12:13 |
: I would say that right now, all three teams absolutely love their side(s) of the deal(s)
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| 12:13 |
: So, you and other writers have said all year that covering baseball regularly saps some of your fandom, and you get pretty good at being unemotional and impartial. That all goes out the window now, right?
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| 12:14 |
: I actually wrote a 5,000 word essay on this very topic last night (!) for the upcoming Hardball Times Annual, for which I interviewed Shi Davidi, Jordan Bastian, Pedro Moura, Zack Meisel, and Grant Brisbee. I’m more proud of it than anything I’ve ever written
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| 12:14 |
: And, no, this postseason run has only proven to me what I’ve already known for years, that my true, rooting Indians fandom is long gone
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| 12:15 |
: Of course, I’d prefer them to see them win, as I’d experience a great deal of joy in seeing my dad happy, and my friends happy, and my city happy, and the people I know in that clubhouse and organization happy, and to see a celebration on the field that made me fall in love with baseball, but none of the joy I’d experience be because it was *the Indians* who won, if that makes sense
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| 12:16 |
: And the Cubs winning at Wrigley would be really freaking cool too
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| 12:16 |
: It’s going to be a great story, either way, and that’s what I enjoy most about baseball these days
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| 12:16 |
: Also – please buy the Hardball Times annual and read my piece and also all the other pieces in there.
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| 12:17 |
: We all know how dominant Andrew Miller’s been, but don’t the Cubs have enough bullpen fire to potentially match his effect if Maddon plays matchups?
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| 12:17 |
: Potentially, yeah, but I think a lot of it rests on how healthy/effective Strop and Rondon are. But, yeah, the difference between the two pens probably isn’t as wide as the Andrew Miller narratives might make it out to be. Jeff wrote a post about this yesterday
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| 12:17 |
: Any guesses on how Napoli and Santana are played?
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| 12:18 |
: In NL parks, would guess Santana would get Hendricks/Lackey/Arrieta making Napoli a pinch-hitter for someone like Crisp/Naquin/Chisenhall, and Napoli would start in Chicago with Lester on the mound
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| 12:18 |
: If cubs win, would Theo’s vanquishing of 2 “curses” be a factor in whether he gets into the HOF or not?
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| 12:18 |
: 100%
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| 12:19 |
: Theo or Tito cements their Hall of Fame legacy within the week, I’d imagine
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| 12:19 |
: Sanatana led off the CS with a bunt single into the shift. Seems like he can do that every at bat, am I wrong?
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| 12:19 |
: Probably. Bunting is hard
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| 12:19 |
: Aaand Rosenthal just tweeted that the Indians are considering Santana in LF at Wrigley
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| 12:19 |
: so
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| 12:20 |
: He worked out there yesterday, so we all knew they were “considering” it in heavy quotation marks, but when Rosenthal runs with something like it makes me think he knows more than the rest of us do
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| 12:20 |
: That would be fascinating. He hasn’t played the outfield in professional baseball, ever, if I recall correctly
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| 12:21 |
: Certainly not in the majors, and he caught in the minors, so I doubt he played out there then, either
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| 12:21 |
: Never *started* in LF, my mistake
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| 12:21 |
: Played 4 innings of LF in 2012
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| 12:21 |
: Who has a bigger effect on the World Series: Salazar, or Schwarber?
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| 12:21 |
: Salazar has the potential to have a bigger effect, because he has the potential to be involved in more plate appearances
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| 12:21 |
: Why are you never invited to participate in a FG chat? You and Carson have beef?
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| 12:22 |
: I am! I chatted earlier this year in the playoffs, and did so all throughout last year’s postseason. No WS live chats for me because I’ll be working all the games
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| 12:22 |
: unless you mean FanGraphs audio? In which case I’ve been on a couple times
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| 12:23 |
: Jose Ramirez has the second-highest wRC+ (among qualified hitters) on a team that just made the World Series. Is he actually good? Or is that proof that the Indians making the World Series is a real surprise?
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| 12:23 |
: little bit of both? He’s probably not quite as good a hitter as he was this year, but I think he’s better than people thought
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| 12:23 |
: Ever consider that maybe Andrew Miller’s legs go all the way up to his collarbones, and the appearance of a crotch is just deceptive uniforming?
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| 12:23 |
: Yes.
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| 12:24 |
: I think it would be weirder if I *hadn’t* thought that by now
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| 12:24 |
: If it makes to game 7, how many goats will be sacrificed in Chicago the night before the game?
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| 12:24 |
: 7, as per custom, right?
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| 12:24 |
: If the Indians win, it’ll be the biggest World Series upset since ____?
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| 12:24 |
: This is a good question, actually, one which I’m sure can be answered at least somewhat objectively using playoff odds or at the very least, betting lines
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| 12:25 |
: The 2:1 favorite by the projection systems seems remarkably one-sided
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| 12:25 |
: I live in CHI – right by the stadium – and have to travel for business Tuesday night. Can you do what you can to make sure the series goes to either 4, 5, or 7 games?
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| 12:25 |
: I’m willing it to go 7 as hard as I can
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| 12:25 |
: What do you think about Shohei Otani?
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| 12:25 |
: I think he is the most exciting thing about baseball
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| 12:26 |
: And I can’t wait to (hopefully) see him playing both ways in the bigs
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| 12:26 |
: It would definitely be a crazy series if anyone is hitting a game 6 homer in Wrigley…
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| 12:26 |
: good point!
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| 12:26 |
: I assume Tito is gonna run on Lester. Does Joe tell Lester to forget all runners?
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| 12:27 |
: No, he still has to do what he can to hold them at bay, in terms of varying his delivery and stepping off the mound occasionally
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| 12:27 |
: The thing about Lester is, him and Ross were actually fine at controlling the run game, in terms of efficiency
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| 12:27 |
: Runners only stole at a 68% clip against them this year. That’s advantage: Cubs
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| 12:27 |
: What they’ve been doing is, in a sense, working. They’re not going to change that before the Indians make them
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| 12:28 |
: I go to school at OSU and my building is filled to the brim with Cleveland shirts today.
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| 12:28 |
: Pretty cool.
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| 12:28 |
: How is Bauer’s finger recovering? What happens if they decide he isn’t ready to pitch in Game 3? Merritt again (assuming Salazar in Game 4)?
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| 12:28 |
: I would guess this would be the case, but I’d be shocked if he would suddenly be declared not able to start
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| 12:28 |
: I’d imagine worst-case scenario for Cleveland is what happened in Toronto
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| 12:29 |
: I just don’t get why Lester can’t throw to first. So weird.
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| 12:29 |
: The yips are a really hard thing to fathom
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| 12:29 |
: Have you been to World Series games?
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| 12:29 |
: Nope. This will be my first one
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| 12:29 |
: do you have any level of nerves?
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| 12:29 |
: Yeah, I’m mostly just anxious for the atmosphere
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| 12:30 |
: At this point, are the Cubs the favorites for the next five World Series? Who is in second?
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| 12:30 |
: The Dodgers?
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| 12:30 |
: Congrats on saying “lit.” You’re officially hip.
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| 12:30 |
: Thank you, Andrew
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| 12:31 |
: Baseball isn’t my job like yours, but after seeing my Phillies win the World Series in 08, 5 minutes after the last out, my true fandom went out the window. It’s fun to watch and root, but I felt that the emotional attachment to a baseball team wasn’t worthwhile to my success in life. Strange how winning a championship actually decreased my interest in a team.
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| 12:31 |
: This is a part of my THT piece, with regards to the Cavs. I haven’t been able to drum up an ounce of excitement for their upcoming season after they won. And it was because I realized I wasn’t actually rooting for the Cavs themselves anymore, I was rooting for all those things I listed above
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| 12:32 |
: Why don’t you have a Men’s Wearhouse profile pic like Jonah Keri
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| 12:32 |
: Because I do not own a suit
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| 12:32 |
: Nor a chiseled jawline
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| 12:32 |
: Havent the past few years taught us that outfield is actually pretty hard and you shouldn’t just stick guys out there arbitrarily?
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| 12:32 |
: Probably
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| 12:32 |
: I still doubt the Indians actually do that
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| 12:32 |
: How do I emotionally prepare for a bunch of people in their 20s pretending that they’ve actually cared about the Cubs their whole lives and this is the greatest thing that ever happened? Should I just ignore them, or maybe try to be less bitter?
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| 12:33 |
: To each their own, but, yeah, I would probably let people manufacture joy in whatever way they choose
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| 12:33 |
: What is the most boring World Series you covered in recent memory?
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| 12:33 |
: I’ve never covered one!
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| 12:33 |
: Which situation more likely results in Chicago burning down – Chicago winning the World Series, or Chicago losing the World Series?
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| 12:33 |
: This is actually a great question
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| 12:33 |
: Winning, I guess, because fans are weird
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| 12:34 |
: If they lose, I think they’ll just be begrudgingly complacent with how far they made it, and how good the future looks. If they win, people will go so far out of their mind that they won’t know what to do withthemselves
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| 12:34 |
: I thought it was incredibly interesting what A-Rod said after the Cubs clinched. That making it to the world series is a win in and of itself, and that both teams can loosen up and have more fun. Win or lose, you made it. Is that true? I feel like the players can’t feel that way, but he would certainly know better than I.
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| 12:34 |
: Yeah, I’ll trust Rod’s viewpoint on that matter over my own
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| 12:35 |
: Also, Rod is seriously the best
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| 12:35 |
: Has Miller done enough for Clint Frazier to turn into Jeff Bagwell and no one has any regrets?
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| 12:35 |
: I don’t think you can look at it this way. Nobody expects Clint Frazier to turn into Jeff Bagwell, so that ends up being the reality, it’s hard to fault the Indians. They traded Clint Frazier with the expectation that he’d turn into what everyone expects Clint Frazier to currently turn into
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| 12:35 |
: It’s a process vs. result thing
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| 12:36 |
: I think Miller’s done enough already to justify them trading the expected outcome of Frazier and Sheffield
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| 12:36 |
: I think Miller added enough to the team’s championship odds, at the time, to trade the expected outcomes of Frazier and Sheffield
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| 12:36 |
: whether both guys bust or turn into starts doesn’t change that it looked like sound process at the time
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| 12:37 |
: stars*
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| 12:37 |
: Santana has -12 on defensive value this year by FG. Has he been that bad in limited time at 1B, or is most of that a positional adjustment penalizing DH?
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| 12:37 |
: The latter
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| 12:37 |
: He actually has +2.2 fielding runs
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| 12:37 |
: And then -14.7 positional runs
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| 12:37 |
: He’s roughly an average first baseman, maybe a touch worse, from what I’ve seen over the last couple years
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| 12:38 |
: Someone tell Bork that the Curse of the Billy Goat was a curse on the Cubs never making another WS, not winning it. The curse is OVER, billy goats all over the Chicagoland area can be thankful that they are spared.
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| 12:38 |
: you can tell him right now!
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| 12:38 |
: How funny would it be if Lester was running the long con on his pick-off throws and he whips out perfect darts to first tonight? Even as an Indians’ fan I think that would be hilarious.
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| 12:38 |
: If you were a bookie, what would you put the odds of Lester throwing over to first at least once?
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| 12:38 |
: Yeah, I’m rooting for this to happen so hard
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| 12:39 |
: Might instantly become my favorite thing about the 2016 season
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| 12:39 |
: And we would learn it was all a part of some brilliant Theo Epstein scheme
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| 12:40 |
: Would you take Lindor over any shortstop in baseball?
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| 12:40 |
: I don’t think there can be a wrong choice between him, Correa, and Seager
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| 12:41 |
: Do teams ever have the goal to make it to the NLCS/ALCS? Or is the goal always either “Win the World Series” or “get to the playoffs” or something like that? At the end of the day, are the Dodgers/Blue Jays noticeably happier with their seasons than the Red Sox/Rangers/Nationals/Giants?
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| 12:41 |
: Front office types probably wouldn’t admit it on record, but my guess is that the baseline goal of any non-rebuilding club is to make the playoffs
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| 12:42 |
: It probably gets a little different when you factor in things like how much money the Dodgers spent or how much talent the Cubs gave up to acquire Chapman, but, to your point, no, I don’t think the Red Sox view the success of their season any differently than the Blue Jays
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| 12:42 |
: Observance: Michael Martinez, Real World Series Player.
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| 12:42 |
: It’s unbelievable
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| 12:42 |
: He has a 35 career wRC+!
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| 12:42 |
: In 578 plate appearances!
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| 12:42 |
: THIRTY FIVE!
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| 12:42 |
: FIVE HUNDRED SEVENTY EIEGHT
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| 12:43 |
: Any chance Santana can fill in at 3B? Moving Ramirez back to LF where he was serviceable.
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| 12:43 |
: I actually think Jose at 3B and Santana in LF would be the better defensive alignment
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| 12:43 |
: Jose is fantastic at 3B and mediocre in LF
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| 12:43 |
: at least with Santana in LF, you’ve got one guy who’s plus at his position
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| 12:43 |
: Santana at 3B and Jose in LF you have a disaster in the infield and mediocre in the outfield
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| 12:44 |
: It might not be your job that ruined your fandom. The same thing that happened to me, and I don’t work in baseball. Some people have a hard time investing emotionally in things they have no control over.
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| 12:44 |
: This is discussed in the piece as well!
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| 12:44 |
: Also, breaking news: Hoynsie actually jumped in the lake
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| 12:44 |
: God I love that guy
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| 12:44 |
:
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| 12:45 |
: Also it was god damn freezing this morning. What a legend
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| 12:46 |
: Surprised he didn’t have a heart attack
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| 12:47 |
: OK, sorry, had to take two minutes to watch that video
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| 12:47 |
: I just googled August Fagerstrom and a picture of a man in a suit came up. Have you lied to us?
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| 12:47 |
: Borrowed that suit for TV appearance, if you’re referring to the picture I think you are!
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| 12:48 |
: Why do they call it the yips?
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| 12:48 |
: per Wikipedia: “The term yips is said to have been popularized by Tommy Armour—a golf champion and later golf teacher—to explain the difficulties that led him to abandon tournament play.”
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| 12:48 |
: citation: Barkow, A. and Barrett, D. (1997) Golf Legends of All Time. Publications International.
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| 12:48 |
: How often do you interact with the players when you’re covering them, and as a follow up question, if so, does anyone look like they’ve been rattled this postseason?
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| 12:49 |
: Interact with them on a daily basis when you’re at the games, and no, nobody has looked rattled, though that’s something you might honestly have a better time trying to find on the field than in the clubhouse
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| 12:49 |
: I think it’s a fool’s errand either way
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| 12:49 |
: Has anything related to baseball ever made you cry?
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| 12:49 |
: I wept like a baby when Dee Gordon hit that leadoff home run the game after Jose passed
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| 12:50 |
: IT’s kinda gross that Chief Wahoo is going to be on jerseys for a team named after a race of people in a World Series game in 2016.
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| 12:50 |
: I agree with you 100%
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| 12:50 |
: It’s funny how up until recently A-Ror was hated, and now people almost love him. Why the sudden turnaround?
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| 12:50 |
: I’m on the record as always loving Rod, for what it’s worth
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| 12:50 |
: But, Rod the player and Rod the broadcaster are just two totally different things. It’s apples and oranges, I guess
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| 12:51 |
: If you could pick a WS matchup at the beginning of the playoffs, is this the one you would pick?
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| 12:51 |
: Yep. Hard to say this isn’t the best story for baseball
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| 12:51 |
: To piggyback on that Michael Martinez comment…why not have Gonzalez on the roster instead? I get Martinez can play more positions, but…who cares?
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| 12:51 |
: Center field
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| 12:52 |
: The Indians view Martinez as their best defensive center fielder
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| 12:52 |
: It’s the entire reason he’s on the roster. He’ll get innings out there with a short lead in the WS
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| 12:52 |
: Martinez doesn’t have CF experience
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| 12:52 |
: Jake Arrieta has a 35 wRC+ in 232 PA, though he was buoyed by an inflatable BABIP luck dragon smh
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| 12:52 |
: Francona may or may not be just attempting to sever his earthly attachments to the DH
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| 12:52 |
: My wife hates watching baseball, but she can’t wait to watch the World Series after I told her how long it’s been since either team won a WS. She said “Well who always wins it then?” I love baseball.
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| 12:52 |
: That’s great
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| 12:53 |
: “Cubs-Indians World Series”: Given the history of the two teams, how weird is it to type/say/think that phrase?
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| 12:53 |
: so
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| 12:53 |
: Any chance Andrew Miller gets a start?
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| 12:53 |
: no
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| 12:53 |
: Favorite hitter pitcher matchup for series?
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| 12:53 |
: Miller-Bryant?
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| 12:53 |
: best vs. the best?
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| 12:54 |
: Chapman-Napoli would be cool too
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| 12:54 |
: Oh god the whole game after José’s death was so emotional. I was sobbing.
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| 12:54 |
: Yeah, Dee’s homer was certainly not the only time I cried that game. Really rough.
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| 12:54 |
: How long does Hendricks have to keep it up to earn Maddux comparisons? He has the third-lowest career ERA among active starters (min. 50 starts). Also, are there any other soft-tossing aces who would make better comparisons, or are we stuck comparing every pitcher with a sub-90 fastball to Maddux forever?
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| 12:55 |
: well for one, he has to be quite a bit better than he was this year to actually earn them, IMO
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| 12:55 |
: and then, like, 3 more years of being better than this year?
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| 12:56 |
: Maddux had arguably the greatest 7-year pitcher peak in modern baseball history. You cant throw comps like that around loosely
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| 12:56 |
: If Rajai hits a leadoff single tonight, over/under on number of pitches it takes him to be standing on 3rd?
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| 12:57 |
: I’m, like, 99% sure that if Rajai leads off with a single he runs first pitch to second
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| 12:57 |
: Taking third wouldn’t shock me either, but might just be satisfied with second given he’s scoring on a single from second with no outs and 2-3-4 coming up
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| 12:58 |
: The weirdest thing about the two droughts is that the two teams are original MLB teams and play in moderately big or bigger cities. It’s roughly the equivalent of the Yankees and Cardinals having 60+ year droughts.
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| 12:58 |
: I wouldn’t go that far. The Indians are at a pretty big geographical disadvantage
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| 12:58 |
: That holds up for the Cubs, I think — that a team that plays in Chicago hasn’t won a World Series in more than a century is baffling — but Cleveland is a different story, I think
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| 12:58 |
: Looking at the weather forecast, does either team get an advantage if tomorrow night gets rained out?
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| 12:59 |
: Off the top of my head, I’d guess any advantage would go to Cleveland, given how banged up they are
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| 12:59 |
: Also it may allow them to squeeze more out of Kluber?
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| 12:59 |
: Alright, guys, I need to eat and be over at the ballpark in an hour. Nice chatting with you all. Enjoy baseball!
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
What is really gross is when ignorant liberals (pardon the redundancy) poison a baseball chat with their pathetic white guilt. Just shut up and go away billy boy – take august with you.