August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 10/4/16

august fagerstrom: Pre-playoff chat!

august fagerstrom: We’ll get started at noon

august fagerstrom: Soundtrack is the new Bon Iver record, which might be my AOTY so far:

Bork: Hello, friend! I actually made it to a chat!

august fagerstrom: Hello, friend!

Pie: Do you think Mike Trout is good at baseball?

august fagerstrom: He is, at the very least, decent.

Bork: How short is Stroman’s leash tonight? Dude’s been ass against the O’s this year.

august fagerstrom: Every playoff leash ought to be short, *particularly* in a Wild Card game. I am fairly certain four starts against Baltimore has little to do with tonight’s decision making.

JT: So uh, Trevor Bauer : Game 1 starter?

august fagerstrom: Has everything to do with the Indians feeling more comfortable with Bauer throwing on three day’s rest (dude’s got a rubber arm) if necessary, and giving Kluber an extra day

EvanC: Please forgive me for fist-pumping the air when you admitted in your article today that Robinson Cano has a leg-up on Kinsler and Pedroia, and is well on his way to being a HOFer. Feeling vindicated!

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think where I’m at is: Cano being the guy who makes it an easy yes, Kinsler being the guy who makes it an easy no, and Pedroia being the one we all go back and forth on

august fagerstrom: Of course, not to say all 3 couldn’t make it (or miss it), but that’s the likelihood in which I’d rank them, I think.

Ronnie: Is Beane’s chair warm at all? Kinda gave away Donaldson & Russell plus the MLB roster is both bad & mostly uninteresting.

august fagerstrom: He’s got to be on watch, for sure.

Corey Kluber: Will I win the Cy Young?

august fagerstrom: If a starting pitcher does, yes.

august fagerstrom: Think it’s either Britton, Kluber, or Porcello, in that order

august fagerstrom: With JV in fourth

august fagerstrom: That’s not how *I’d* vote, but that’s what I expect.

Grim Rice: August: I’m a Red Sox fan and my GF is from Cleveland. Any advice for surviving the ALDS?

august fagerstrom: Remember that it’s just sports

Q-Ball: Javy Baez finished 1st in the NL in Defensive Runs Saved at 2B, with 11, despite only starting 38 games at 2B. Is that amazingly good, or am I reading that number wrong?

august fagerstrom: It’s pretty damn good. More coming on this later today in my NL Gold Gloves piece.

Erik: 22, A Million is Kid A, isn’t it?

august fagerstrom: Yeezus is the comp I’ve made, but Kid A has crossed my mind too.

Zonk: Walt Weiss is gone in Colorado, and scuttlebutt is that there was real friction between him and Bridich. Are further changes afoot there? Do you buy the Rockies as a team on the upswing?

august fagerstrom: Their core is more exciting than it’s been in some years

Dock Ellis: First off, how’s the shoulder? Secondly, will Bonds get another job as a hitting coach or even, gasp, a manager job?

august fagerstrom: Shoulder is doing better! Thanks for asking. Have my post-op meeting with surgeon tomorrow and then hopefully going back home to Cleveland! (Been staying at my Mom’s in Kent since the surgery for assistance on this damn cryotherapy machine). Bonds working in baseball again seems doubtful

august fagerstrom: At least having that hands-on of a role.

natsfan: Who do you think loses the most time in the Indians OF next season with Brantley’s return?

august fagerstrom: Brantley has to return first.

Justin: Porcello,Happ,Sanchez,Price,Estrada

Justin: Please rank those in order of who you’d want starting a playoff game

august fagerstrom: Price, Happ, Porcello, Sanchez, Estrada?

august fagerstrom: The first and the last ones are the only two about which I’m confident. Middle 3 can go in any order you like, probably depending on which handedness the opposing lineup leans toward.

Sirras: MadBum v. Thor – Odds of a shutout and pitcher-hit homer?

august fagerstrom: Ha. Hadn’t even thought of the fact that they’re two of the best-hitting pitchers, too.

august fagerstrom: What an awesome matchup.

Nick: Whoaaaa, I just threw on the new Bon Iver right before coming here for the chat! Great minds, and all that. Do you have any music recommendations for someone who loves the new Bon Iver and is trying to find some similar jams?

august fagerstrom: Francis and the Lights has a very similar sound. Justin Vernon is on their new record and I think Francis contributed to 22, A Million some

august fagerstrom: It’s such a unique sound, though. Hard to come up with any real sonic comps.

J: AL and NL WC game picks?

Erich: Thoughts on the wild card games?

august fagerstrom: Blue Jays and Mets, I guess

Randy: If WPA was calculated for all players at the end of the PostSeason, who would you expect to have the highest WPA?

august fagerstrom: Closer on the winning team

J: Jean Segura literally doubled his wRC+ from last year. I’m baffled.

august fagerstrom: Somehow I don’t think anyone ever wrote about him here, either.

august fagerstrom: Apparently you’re not the only one who’s baffled

botchatheny : who’s going to win the world series? (pay no attention i owe the mob $50,000)

august fagerstrom: I don’t think it makes much sense to pick anyone but the Cubs unless you’re just looking for a debate

Dock Ellis: We all know (or should know) the playoffs are a crapshoot. But the Cubbies are the best equippped team in recent memory to bet on the favorite this year right?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, because they’re one of the best teams in recent memory

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Brad Hawpe, Josh Fogg, Tony Graffanino, Josh Barfield, Boof Bonser

august fagerstrom: Booooooooofffffff

g: Are there plans for big bags o livechat over the playoffs? (apologies if i’ve missed the announcement)

august fagerstrom: Yep, I think we’re having one for each of the WC games and the first games of the DS

J: Percentage of fangraphs readers that could out GM Dave Stewart? % of total baseball fans?

august fagerstrom: Slim. There’s so much more to running a team than just knowing which players are good and bad

Fire Kevin Cash: Kiermaier still has a slight lead in defensive metrics over Pillar but missed a lot of time due to injury. If this were an MVP/Cy Young award, you give it to Pillar for staying healthy, which has value. But it’s just for the best fielder. Does Kiermaier deserve it, and/or does he actually get the votes?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure I agree with your first statement. The value is measured by the runs saved, and so if Kiermaier has the edge in runs saved, I give it to Kiermaier

august fagerstrom: Regardless of innings

The Lure of the Animal: Do you think Utley’s reputation as an old-school player who hustles and “plays the game the right way” will endear him to older HOF voters?

august fagerstrom: Sure. But it shouldn’t have to. He should be a slam-dunk.

JT: why are the Indians pitching anyone on short rest in game 1 didn’t they clinch like a week early?

august fagerstrom: They’re not

Erik: Which wild card team has a roster best tailored for wild card baseball? And what does that look like? A deep bullpen, some defensive specialists/pinch runners on the bench, etc.?

august fagerstrom: The Mets, because they have Noah Syndergaard

Alan: I generally trust the Cards’ front office to make good decisions, but I don’t get the impression that Matheny’s seat is even remotely warm. What do they see that we don’t?

august fagerstrom: What happens behind closed doors. I’m of the belief that like 90% of a manager’s value comes off the field

Bork: I REALLY hope Thor hits a HR off of MadBum. Just for MadBum to find some reason to get angry like seeing Puig in the stands.

august fagerstrom: I’m on board with this

august fagerstrom: Hope he bat flips too

Slothrop: Yo August. So I was looking through the player pages yesterday and checked out Jimmy Rollins’ and noticed something weird. Apparently Jimmy Rollins never had a single season of BABIP luck. He consistently posted a sub .300 BABIP for his entire career. I thought it was odd for a player of his caliber and speed/athleticism to post such low BABIP numbers, especially considering the kind of success he had in his career. Is this surprising to you as well or does it just happen sometimes

august fagerstrom: I suppose it is a bit peculiar, but we really shouldn’t be surprised to *not* see large swings of variance

Trainman: Carlos correa: met, fell short of or exceeded expectations?

august fagerstrom: 5-win season at 21

august fagerstrom: I’d say met, though the hype was so high that some probably think he fell short with a 122 wRC+

jon: 80 grade tools: John Lackey jawing at umpires in the first 3 innings to get calls in the last 6

august fagerstrom: Ha, this one is great. Am now paying attention to this moving forward

JT: My favorite FG chat was when carson was forced to do one for the playoffs last year and he just left during the middle of it

august fagerstrom: Second-half of the chat was probably Carson’s favorite, too

august fagerstrom: He probably fell asleep

Dock Ellis: Thoughts on Ryan Howard’s legacy? As a Phils fan, sure the last years were awful, but when he was in his prime, he was the preeminent power hitter in baseball. Not a HOFer, but I’d say he was in the Hall of Very Good and deservedly should be remembered as that.

august fagerstrom: I don’t think he’s anywhere near the Hall of Very Good

august fagerstrom: Hall of Very Good, to me, is career 40-50 WAR types who also had 25+ WAR five-year or so peaks. Classic example of a guy like this is Dan Haren or what I suspect someone like Ian Kinsler might wind up being

august fagerstrom: Howard’s entire career was worth 20 WAR

august fagerstrom: He was a great power hitter for a few years

Dock Ellis: Did you watch/listen to Vin Scully’s last game? Is there anyone who didn’t cry?

august fagerstrom: I misted up

Zonk: Do you think MLB sees the HR spike as a problem? Or, do you think they see it as a plus, because hey, who doesn’t love dingers?

august fagerstrom: i bet they love it

Erik: Jimmy Rollins was famous among Phillies fans as popping up way way way too much. Probably explains the low BABIP.

august fagerstrom: ta-da

Zonk: Keith Law admits he was wrong on Kyle Hendricks. Were you?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure I ever really put a strong enough take forward to be proven wrong

august fagerstrom: I’m certainly surprised, as are the rest of us

august fagerstrom: I’m also still not at all convinced that he’s actually a No. 1 or even all that convinced that he’s a No. 2 and that he’s not just a solid pitcher throwing in front of one of the best defenses / run prevention units in major league history

CamdenWarehouse: Who’s chatting for the wild cards?

august fagerstrom: Sullivan and someone else tonight, myself and Cameron tomorrow

Jaime: Is Clayton Kershaw a better pitcher than Trout is a position player?

august fagerstrom: He’s close, but no

botchatheny : i remember last years playoffs and carson was upset i was calling him a “mod” of the room. he strikes me as emulating jason schwartzman

august fagerstrom: I fully encourage everyone to continue telling Carson chat stories

Jedidiah: I want to believe that Andrew Triggs can be a good starter going forward. Are you with me?

august fagerstrom: sure! and I know Jeff certainly is

The Lure of the Animal: Is Lester’s league-leading LOB% despite his inability to control the running game further evidence of the Cubs BABIP magic? Or something else entirely?

august fagerstrom: the latter mixed with some noise

J: Britton the best RP in baseball? Or does Miller or someone else with more Ks get that title?

august fagerstrom: Miller is the best RP in baseball, Britton had the best season, is the way I choose to look at it

senpaisanto:

august fagerstrom: leave

jon: Kris Bryant is half way to a top 100 5 year peak in slightly less than 2 years

august fagerstrom: Yeah, he’ll probably be on that table in Year 4, the way Donaldson (basically) is now

Billy Beane: My seat isn’t warm. I’m a part owner who just got promoted and extended last year after the JD trade. My moves since then have been good, especially my trade deadline deals. Don’t worry about me.

august fagerstrom: I don’t think it’s warm, either, but I’m also having a hard time looking past Donaldson, Russell, Butler, etc

Tim: Regardless of who you think *should* win, who do you think *will* win AL Rookie of the Year?

august fagerstrom: Think Fulmer will, kinda think Sanchez should

august fagerstrom: Though both are excellent picks

Enlightening Round: Ryan Howard’s legacy, great home run hitter, that’s it

august fagerstrom: He’s Adam Dunn with 80 fewer career homers. Or Joe Carter without a WS-winning walk-off

Walt: where does chapman fit in “best closer”?

august fagerstrom: Right there with Miller. And Jansen/Betances

Q-Ball: Overall, how did Addison Russell perform this year relative to your expectations?

august fagerstrom: I think mostly I’m a little surprised how good he’s been at shortstop. Not that anyone expected him not to stick, but he’s been incredible defensively

Dock Ellis: Thanks for correcting me on Ryan Howard. But an MVP, – World Series ring (should have been two), and a bunch of dongs makes him Hall of Very Good Phillies for me at least. I pretend the other years are like Rocky V, Pablo Honey, and Lion King 2. They never happened.

Erik: Which playoff teams are most likely in the last year of their window?

august fagerstrom: I guess the Orioles, because I’m not convinced they’re actually all that good. They’ve gotta get pitching soon

Erik: The best MLB player in the year 2023 will be….

august fagerstrom: Trout will be 31. I’ll take him.

Dave P: Can we please not call home runs “dongs”

august fagerstrom: reject

E: Did you have Franklin Square Deli for lunch today?

august fagerstrom: No, but I have the past two days and may very well head down there after this chat!

Q-Ball: Russell, Baez, and Bryant have generally exceeded expectations defensively, vs. what scouts projected as they came up through Cubs system. Are the Cubs doing something different in terms of defensive development, or is this just luck?

august fagerstrom: I’d guess it’s partly Cubs’ scoutings seeing something in them, defensively, that the public didn’t, and part development

E: 12″ destroyer?

august fagerstrom: I had the breakfast bagel on Sunday, the special yesterday (turkey, lettuce, tomato, onion with cajun cream cheese on ciabatta) and today is up in the air

august fagerstrom: You’ve also just made me incredibly hungry, and ensured that I will be going to Franklin Square Deli again

Billy Haywood: Carson chatted with Jeff during the Cubs-Pirates wild card game last year. His contributions included a lengthy commentary on how the game would proceed should the Pirates have been genuine, swash buckling pirates, and which players would best represent various deli meats

august fagerstrom: yesssss

JT: Did you lurk on FG while you worked for the Indians?

august fagerstrom: I never worked *for* the Indians, I covered them. So, yeah, I was all over FG every day

Tony: I’m sick of seeing all the articles pointing out how great the Cubs were this year and on the same note pointing out the best team doesn’t win in October. It’s like they are already trying to brace Cubs fans for a postseason flameout. Even though the postseason is a random weighted crapshoot and doesn’t measure how good a team is, as a Cubs fan I am not going to be arguing the Cubs as an all-time great team if they get swept in the NLDS. Am I wrong to feel this way?

august fagerstrom: I think so, yeah

august fagerstrom: Guess it depends on what your measure of a “successful” or “historic” season is. In my eyes, they’ve already had both, so I suppose how some wouldn’t see it that way.

g: Speaking of pitching, can the Mets actually achieve anything this postseason given all their pitching injuries?

august fagerstrom: Sure they can. Everyone who’s still alive has a very real shot at winning it all.

Q-Ball: What WS matchup do you most want to see, and why?

august fagerstrom: Cubs-Indians would have to be the best storty

august fagerstrom: story*

britishcub: 12″ destroyer sounds like a porn name

The Lure of the Animal: Would you marry Kevin Kiermaier if he had a 12″ destroyer?

august fagerstrom: I don’t like the way this is going

Q-Ball: What WS matchup do Fox Television executives most want to see? Would that be Cubs-Red Sox?

august fagerstrom: Probably?

august fagerstrom: Cubs would be better than Mets, right?

Erik: Which WS matchup would be the worst for neutral fans? Two teams totally lacking in storyline and with as little star power as a playoff team can have.

august fagerstrom: Giants-Orioles would be fucking awful

august fagerstrom: nobody wants to see the Giants back in the WS again, and the Orioles are by far the most boring playoff team

CamdenWarehouse: Boooo

august fagerstrom: sorry

Sonny: Cubs fans worried about not winning WS, do Mariners fans hang banners for the ’01 team? Can’t tell them it’s still a success if Seattle still recoils when you say ‘2001’

august fagerstrom: suppose this is true

august fagerstrom: guess it boils down to being a fan of that particular club or not

CarrotJuice: Re Trout: According to ZiPS, Correa will be as valuable in 2018 as Trout, and will outproduce him 2019 onwards. We may be nearing the end of the “Trout is the best player in baseball” era. Enjoy it while it lasts!

august fagerstrom: Wonder how much Trout putting up another 9-win season and Correa (I think?) underperforming his preseason projection changes this

Rick: I tune into this chat and the first thing I see is discussion of Kiermaier’s dong? I guess I’m in the right place

august fagerstrom: lol

Jim: Is there any playoff result that would seriously make you rethink your baseball fandom? I honestly might give it up if the Dodgers lost to the Giants in the NLCS.

august fagerstrom: If there were a playoff result that included the Reds advancing to the NLCS, I’d probably give up my fandom, on account of the entire thing being a fraud

Sonny: Can we take a moment to appreciate the Mets’ pennant winning rotation from last year? The chances of that group being 1. healthy, and 2. still that effective at the same time is almost zero.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, this is why building teams around starting pitching is scary, as both the Mets and Indians have learned the hard way this year

august fagerstrom: Though to be fair, Carrasco’s injury couldn’t have been much flukire

august fagerstrom: flukier*

jon: Royals 2014-2015 Defense vs Cubs 2016?

august fagerstrom: it’s definitely close

august fagerstrom: Difference is the Royals defense covered up very mediocre pitching. The Cubs paired historic defense with great pitching, which is how they wound up with the all-time BABIP

JT: People love baseball funfacts. The Cincinnati Reds, MLB’s oldest franchise, have never had a pitcher win the Cy Young Award. I find that to be mind boggling

august fagerstrom: good one!

senpaisanto: any thoughts on the tigers going into next year? seems like it’ll be tough for them to improve, given the FA market?

august fagerstrom: they’ll find a way

Zonk: There’s one area where the Cubs have had unbelievable, dumb luck: Pitcher health. Other than a 15-day Lackey DL stint, no starter injuries at all. That is very unusual, isn’t it?

august fagerstrom: Yep

CarrotJuice: Wouldn’t MLB want a Cubs-Blue Jays series? The Blue Jays have a market of an entire country!

august fagerstrom: Yeah, actually the Blue Jays are probably the best choice. Their fans are nuts

Dock Ellis: 2016 Cubs rotation or 2009 Phillies rotation?

august fagerstrom: 2009 Phillies rotation, 2016 Cubs run prevention unit

Sonny: 2016 Regular Season Memories: Joey Bats v Odor

Sonny: 2016 Regular Season Memories: Trevor Story hitting so many dongs his hand exploded

Justin: Giants-Orioles WS would also feature the worst possible matchup of uniforms.

august fagerstrom: yeah, there’s something that really bothers me about that too

august fagerstrom: Can’t have similar hues duking it out

Dominik: Does hotness/coldness in the last 10-15 games correlate with postseason success?

august fagerstrom: No

Spencer K: Any urge at FG for an “I told you so” on the d-backs FO?

august fagerstrom: No, that’d be silly. For one, what Dave Stewart was arguing with at the start of the year was a computer projection, and there’s no point in taking credit for the work a projection system did. As for any human *predictions*, I think there’s no point in showboating when those come true, either, because human predictions are going to be wrong more often than they’re right

Billy Haywood: Here’s a part of last year’s chat that you’ll have to live up to this year:
5:34
Comment From Phillies113
Which would you rather encounter: an actual pirate, or an actual bear cub?
5:34
Jeff Sullivan: How young is the bear cub?
5:34
Jeff Sullivan: I take the bear up until about 6 – 10 months
5:34
Carson Cistulli: How young is the pirate?
5:35
Jeff Sullivan: I assume you can only be a pirate by choice
5:35
Jeff Sullivan: If you’re old enough to choose to be a pirate, you’re old enough to be dangerous
5:35
Carson Cistulli: If both your parent are pirates, Jeff, you’re going to be a pirate.

august fagerstrom: I lol’d

Sonny: minor story line but Bauer in a WS would be entertaining as hell. seems like he’d have some fun on the big stage

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I have a feeling that playoff Bauer is going to be entertaining

Zonk: Because their bullpen coughed up a 3-run lead on the season’s final day of the year, the Reds moved from 7th to 2nd in the 2017 draft. That’s a huge move! Thank you Reds bullpen!

august fagerstrom: Trust the process.

august fagerstrom: Alright y’all, I’ve gotta bounce to make way for Longenhagen’s prospect chat. Take care, thanks for chatting, and enjoy playoff baseball tonight!