August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 11/24/15
| 11:53 |
: hello, people!
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| 11:53 |
: start getting those questions in. i’ll be back in ~15 to get things started
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| 11:54 |
: today’s chat soundtrack: Deltron 3030 – Deltron 3030
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| 12:07 |
: ok!
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| 12:07 |
Del the Funky Homosapien is 100x better with Dan the Automator. |
| 12:08 |
: all things are better with Dan the Automator. really wish the Damon Albarn/Dan the Automator collab would make a return for a Gorillaz album. nothing tops that first record
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| 12:09 |
: i have a couple buddies who have an uncle that’s worked with Dan in the past. he says Dan is notoriously difficult to work with
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| 12:09 |
Could Pedro Alvarez make sense as an A’s target? They could use cheap LHH power. Actually, a Brandon Moss reunion could work too? |
| 12:10 |
: seems kind of redundant with Ike Davis on the roster, no? and it sounds like there’s mutual interest between Moss and the Cardinals, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return
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| 12:10 |
Would Zobrist be a fit for the Mariners? He could play a corner OF spot, and they don’t have anyone to back up 2B/3B/SS. |
| 12:11 |
: Zobrist is a fit for basically 30 teams. Don’t see the Mariners though. Your Ben Zobrist destination checklist should be: 1) Contender? 2) Team with money?
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| 12:11 |
: Mariners don’t overwhelm in either category
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| 12:12 |
Gardner to the Angels make sense? What kind of arm would they be hoping to get back? Richards is too rich, but someone like Skaggs doesn’t seem like enough. |
| 12:13 |
: It definitely makes some sense. Between Santiago, Shoemaker, Skaggs, perhaps Tropeano or even CJ Wilson in the last year of his deal, I’m sure there’s something the Yankees like
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| 12:14 |
: I’d imagine one of those guys gets dealt this offseason, regardless of whether it’s for Gardner
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| 12:14 |
: Angels have a surplus of intriguing starters and way too many holes elsewhere to keep them all
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| 12:15 |
With reports about a possible CLE-LAD SP for OF trade, is Joc Pederson even a possibility? And if so, is Salazar enough as return? Carrasco seems too much. Maybe DeLeon and Pederson for Carrasco, who’d hang up first? |
| 12:15 |
: I doubt Pederson goes anywhere. If Carrasco or Salazar is pitching in LA next year, it’ll be Yasiel Puig in Cleveland, would be my guess
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| 12:16 |
Eno has beer, Dave has personal finance, what non-baseball things are you the guru of? |
| 12:16 |
: I’m a music nut. I’m also really into poker
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| 12:16 |
: Texas Hold Em, that is
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| 12:17 |
Lets get the normal questions out of the way to save time: Who are the Mets signing to play CF, where is David Price signing, are the Dodgers trading Puig, is Mike Trout good? |
| 12:17 |
: I only know the answer to one of these questions
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| 12:18 |
Hey August, what are the odds that Price returns to Toronto and Grienke returns to the Dodgers? |
| 12:18 |
: Price to Toronto seems to be gaining traction. Last week, I’d have said like 10%. Now, maybe 30%? I still feel pretty confident in Greinke to LAD. 65%?
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| 12:19 |
Do you like the numbers more for what they tell us about what has already happened or for what they tell us about what might happen in the future? |
| 12:19 |
: Past
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| 12:19 |
: Though projections are endlessly helpful in writing offseason analysis posts
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| 12:20 |
Does adding Kenta Maeda and Scott Kazmir do enough to the Dbacks to make them #legit wild card contenders? Corbing, Maeda, Kazmir, Ray, Bradley/Blair. |
| 12:20 |
: I’m pretty high on the Dbacks
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| 12:20 |
: Of course, it all depends on how Maeda translates to the MLB. But with a #legit front half of the rotation, yeah, I think if things go their way (health, sequencing) they could be in the mix down the stretch
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| 12:22 |
White Sox fans are adamant that Quintana is worth a dumptruck worth of a haul. Some believe that the Sox must get MLB-ready talent rather than prospects. Some suggest 2 FV 60 prospects and 45-5- FV prospect would not be enough? What’s your assessment? Is something like Swihart, Devers, and Benintendi too much or a fair deal? |
| 12:23 |
: wrote about this last week. The Cole Hamels package is close
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| 12:23 |
Is there any way the Dbacks can trade Yasmany Tomas? Pollock and Peralta are keys to success, Inciarte doesn’t net a big return. Could Tomas be packaged with prospects to actually get something exciting back (SP)? |
| 12:23 |
: would be selling low, wouldn’t it?
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| 12:24 |
Is Carlos Santana a good clubhouse guy? Can you see the Indians shopping him? |
| 12:24 |
: he’s pretty quiet. keeps to himself a lot. I thought it made some sense, but from what I’ve heard it’s pretty likely he’ll be back next year
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| 12:24 |
Going down a decidedly not-baseball path, but would love to hear how Dan the Automator can be tricky to work with. That guy is incredible. |
| 12:25 |
: he’s just kind of a pain from what I’ve heard. stories I’ve heard don’t paint him as a very friendly guy
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| 12:26 |
Earth people! I was born on Jupiter! |
| 12:26 |
: I remember the first time I heard Dr. Octagonecologyst I was pretty young and didn’t get it. I thought it was terrible. Then years later I heard it again and realized how absolutely genius it was
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| 12:27 |
When do the Indians call up Clint Frazier? Second half of AFL was kind of disappointing for him. |
| 12:27 |
: I doubt they’re too worried about that. Frazier looks like a stud in the making
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| 12:27 |
: I’d guess he’s up July 2017
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| 12:27 |
What do you mean the Mariners aren’t a contender?! They won 87 games last year! Jesus Montero! Smoak! |
| 12:28 |
: why don’t you take a seat over there… I’ve got some news for you
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| 12:29 |
so if I have a 2-7 off suit, I should fold every time? |
| 12:29 |
: not if you’re playing deuce-seven in a home game!
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| 12:29 |
: when we have big games, everyone at the table pays a buck to anyone who can win a hand and show down 27
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| 12:30 |
What would it take for the Mariners to pry Puig away? Any chance they get it done without giving up Walker? |
| 12:30 |
: probably not
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| 12:30 |
August, you are straight KILLING IT with your articles. No question. Just thanks |
| 12:30 |
: thank you very much
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| 12:30 |
While the Orioles are stuck in the awful space between contender and not quite ready for a rebuild, wouldn’t Zach Britton be there best asset (not including Manny – heaven forbid) regardless of which path they choose? Yes, he is now arb eligible so no longer dirt cheap but he is, arguably, a top 5 reliever with 3 years of team control. Would seem he could fetch a couple low ceiling, almost ready guys for 2016-17 or a handful of high upside, low A guys for a long term rebuild. |
| 12:31 |
: depends on how the O’s offseason goes. they still talk like they’re in the mix for a Davis/Cespedes/Upton type
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| 12:31 |
: if that’s true, they still view themselves as a contender
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| 12:32 |
: I don’t see any of those guys winding up in Baltimore, though, and I don’t see them as a contender. if that’s how the offseason plays out, yeah, Britton is something that hasn’t been discussed much but makes some sense. he’s definitely got value, than he’d have to a non-contending team
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| 12:32 |
Who could the Reds possibly trade Frazier to? I just don’t see many fits that would have a good return. |
| 12:33 |
: I’ve heard Indians as a possibility. Angels could desperately use a third baseman but then you run into the return issue. Astros could use am everyday 3B too.
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| 12:33 |
Whither Dalton Pompey in 2016? |
| 12:34 |
: solid fourth outfielder
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| 12:34 |
Online or live? Cash games or tournaments? |
| 12:34 |
: i play online and live. online on Bovada (miss you Stars 🙁 ) then I’ve hosted a .25/.50 cash game at my house every sunday for the last ~5 years
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| 12:35 |
: will soon live about a block away from the Horseshoe in Cleveland too so wooooooo 1/2
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| 12:35 |
: might get dangerous
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| 12:35 |
I see a lot of Indians twitter talking up Mike Cleveinger. What are your thoughts on him? How does he impact the Indians 2016 season? |
| 12:35 |
: here was a fun tweet I had yesterday
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| 12:35 |
: Corey Kluber: 4th-rd pick (#134), 3.45 ERA, 2.94 FIP in AA at age 24
Mike Clevinger: 4th-rd pick (#135), 2.73 ERA, 3.02 FIP in AA at age 24 |
| 12:36 |
: OBVIOUSLY not implying Clevinger is Kluber. Kluber experienced unprecedented development in the majors
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| 12:36 |
: but Clevinger was pretty filthy last year by all accounts. Antonetti seems to have a knack for identifying fixable pitchers in other team’s systems and acquiring them for cheap.
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| 12:36 |
Will brett Gardner and/or Andrew Miller be traded? |
| 12:36 |
: I’d say one of them is, yeah
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| 12:37 |
: Yankees need to shore up the rotation and they don’t project to be big spenders in FA. trade seems likely
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| 12:37 |
How soon will I be seeing semi-regular time at first base? Ryan Howard is on the way out, Darin Ruf…who is Darin Ruf? I’m the first baseman of the future sooner rather than later, right? |
| 12:38 |
: so I just published a question asking about Maikel Franco moving to 1B eventually and “who is Darin Ruf” don’t know where it went but I’ll answer it now
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| 12:39 |
: Darin Ruf has a career 158 wRC+ against lefties! So that’s helpful! But yeah, Franco is probably a first baseman before too long
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| 12:39 |
Do you answer us? If so, what kind of context info do you prefer to have before offering an opinion? |
| 12:39 |
: not really, no
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| 12:40 |
: also not a huge fan of “who says no” questions so that’s why there’s 100 of those sitting in the queue unanswered each chat
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| 12:40 |
Can we get a roundtable of you, Eno, and Dave along with myself to help me figure out how I can afford concerts, pre-concert drinking, while being able to afford rent? Also, have you looked at any rule 5 picks? Anyone decent the Phils could take? |
| 12:41 |
: Go to a music festival to get your concert fix in! Expensive but you get an insane bang for your buck
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| 12:41 |
: I’d see ~25 shows a year at Bonnaroo for ~$275 and that includes shows like Stevie Wonder and Jay-Z and Paul McCartney. that’s like $10 a show plus the good times
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| 12:42 |
: pre-concert drinking: beers in the parking lot before you go in. buy as few as possible at the venue
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| 12:43 |
: rule 5: gonna be honest I haven’t looked into it and probably wouldn’t know (m)any of the names anyway. so I’ll stick to answering the concert and drinking questions
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| 12:43 |
Ignoring money/contract situation, who do you like more as a pitcher/stuff: Boxberger 2nd half of 2015 or McGee (after coming off the injury)? |
| 12:43 |
: probably Boxberger
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| 12:44 |
: I always get really nervous about pitchers with shoulder injuries
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| 12:44 |
In what city do you live? |
| 12:44 |
: Kent for now. Downtown Cleveland in the spring
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| 12:45 |
I know you can’t name names, but have you met any gay baseball players? They exist, don’t they? (besides David Denson) |
| 12:45 |
: not that I’m aware of
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| 12:45 |
Order these guys a) for 2016, and b) for they careers: Urias, Gausman, Berrios, Eduaro Rodriguez, Nola |
| 12:45 |
: hmmm
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| 12:46 |
: 2016- Rodriguez, Nola, Gausman, Berrios, Urias
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| 12:47 |
: career- Urias, Rodriguez, Berrios, Nola, Gausman
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| 12:47 |
As far as the next 3 years look, are there many teams better positioned than the Indians? Red Sox, Dodgers, Texas, maybe the Mets? |
| 12:47 |
: wrote this a couple times last year while the fanbase was freaking out. The Indians are in great shape. those Kluber/Carrasco/Brantley/Kipnis/Gomes contracts are insane
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| 12:48 |
: plus Salazar and Lindor still making league min. they’re set up really well for the next handful of years
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| 12:48 |
Is your dad’s name Nelson? |
| 12:48 |
: it is not.
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| 12:48 |
Have you heard any rumors about Timmy suiters? What do you think he gets — 5mm/1 year pillow post hip surgery? |
| 12:49 |
: I have not. I think a lot of people assumed he’d return to the Giants for cheap until Passan’s article yesterday. All hinges on how that showcase looks now
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| 12:49 |
: I’m skeptical, for what it’s worth, though I couldn’t be rooting for the guy more
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| 12:49 |
Does Ah-Seop Son not getting interest have more to do with teams wanting Jae-gyun Hwang more than not wanting Son? |
| 12:49 |
: I think so
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| 12:50 |
: I’d heard Son described as a “Nori Aoki-type” with worse K/BB numbers, too, so it’s not like he was being viewed as a prized commodity
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| 12:50 |
: but, yeah, KBO teams can only post one player if I understand correctly, so that would seem to indicate teams would prefer to bid on Hwang
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| 12:51 |
Seems like more and more guys from FanGraphs, BP, Hardball Times are getting jobs in front offices. Is that something you try and pursue? |
| 12:51 |
: no way. I’m not nearly smart enough to work in a front office
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| 12:52 |
: I don’t know SQL/R anything like that and I’d offer no value on the business side
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| 12:52 |
: Plus I really love writing
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| 12:52 |
: That’s the main reason I do this
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| 12:53 |
is neil walker going to get moved? wheres his best fit? |
| 12:53 |
: seems like the Pirates are shopping him pretty hard
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| 12:54 |
: Orioles I know have been linked. Lot of contending teams could use a 2B, actually. Angels, Mets, maybe even Nats or Yankees as longshots
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| 12:54 |
Tool is touring to hype up their new album next year. How much would you spend to see them near the front row? |
| 12:55 |
: I definitely want to get to one of these shows. the last time they toured (2008 or so?) it was a really tiny leg, like seven days, and the only place they played near me was in some tiny venue in freaking Dayton that sat like 2,000 people. sold out in seconds and we had like seven friends online at sale time trying to get tickets
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| 12:55 |
: we were so furious
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| 12:56 |
: no dates near me this time 🙁 hope they extend
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| 12:56 |
: i wouldn’t pay a ton to be front row. I’d rather just be there in some capacity for less
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| 12:56 |
Do the Indians believe in Gio Urshela to hit enough or do they sign or trade for a 3B? |
| 12:57 |
: this is a good question. he was dealing with a number of injuries throughout last year so I dont think the organization is putting too much stock in his ML numbers from last year. that said, he wasn’t supposed to be much of an impact bat to begin with
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| 12:57 |
: my gut kind of tells me they go with a Jose Ramirez/Urshela platoon at third for now, unless one of those guys gets traded which is also very possible
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| 12:57 |
Sad phillies Q: More career ABs left, Howard , Rollins or Utley? |
| 12:57 |
: oh man. Rollins?
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| 12:58 |
: maybe Howard actually because I could see him hanging on with an AL club as a DH for a couple years
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| 12:58 |
: Utley seems like fewest
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| 12:58 |
I ask you a crazy trade question. Who says no? |
| 12:58 |
: me!
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| 12:58 |
A package of Brett Gardner and Greg Bird. What SP would it cost the Indians? |
| 12:58 |
: this is the exact scenario I’ve been thinking a Salazar trade could work around
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| 1:00 |
What’s the worst beat you’ve had in hold em? I had an Ace-high flush and while getting my winnings someone at the table noticed the loser’s flush ended up being a straight flush. Pot was about 250-300$. |
| 1:00 |
: way too many to remember but this one always comes to mind
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| 1:01 |
:
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| 1:01 |
: that’s from my home game
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| 1:01 |
: sure there have been sicker though
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| 1:01 |
A Ray’s Place maven… or a other? |
| 1:02 |
: Ray’s for lunch… Zephyr for drinking
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| 1:02 |
Carlos Rodon had some seriously extreme splits last year. Did he figure-it-out-put-it-all-together-turn-the-corner? |
| 1:02 |
: he was in College the year before
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| 1:03 |
: he’s got some time to work out the righties thing
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| 1:03 |
: also, obligatory “small sample” alert that you probably don’t need to be reminded of
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| 1:03 |
Is Terry Francona as cool & funny a guy as he seems? |
| 1:03 |
: he’s the best
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| 1:03 |
Is Clevinger one of the reasons the Indians would consider trading a young ML SP? |
| 1:03 |
: I don’t think they’d view it that way, but his presence helps.
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| 1:04 |
: still no guarantee at all that he’s a reliable ML starter, though. had one very impressive season as a 24yo at AA.
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| 1:04 |
: encouraging, but not to the extent of “OK cool now we can trade away Danny Salazar and not worry about it”
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| 1:04 |
August, honestly, do you enjoy these chats or is it just something you have to do? I get the sense that for a couple writers its something they have to do |
| 1:04 |
: I enjoy them!
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| 1:05 |
: I’ve also only been doing them for a few weeks. Talk to me next year. haha
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| 1:05 |
What are the odds of Cleveland fangraphs meetup in the next year? |
| 1:05 |
: I think that would just be an August Fagerstrom meetup
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| 1:05 |
Does anyone offer Braves enough for Miller or Teheran for them to bite? |
| 1:06 |
: seems like the safe bet nowadays is to lean towards “yes” when considering whether the Braves will trade a good ML player
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| 1:06 |
: so I’ll say one of them gets dealt, sure
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| 1:06 |
I won’t ask you for a prediction because those just make the predictor look bad, but what team makes the most sense for Alex Gordon? |
| 1:06 |
: the Royals
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| 1:06 |
Do you love pecan pie as much as I do? |
| 1:06 |
: not my favorite pie
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| 1:06 |
Do you think the O’s should rebuild? Start moving anything not named Machado? I think they would be best served to draft and dev hitting and buy pitching, the Os track record with young pitching is questionable at best |
| 1:07 |
: I lean toward that side, yeah. They don’t seem to agree at the time, though
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| 1:07 |
Bauer for Ozuna, who says no? |
| 1:07 |
: Indians
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| 1:07 |
: Though an overwhelming majority of Indians fans seem to want this to happen
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| 1:08 |
I think I’ve been overrating Gardner for awhile. Just compared him to Gregor Blanco last 3 seasons. Blanco has a higher WAR/PA. |
| 1:08 |
: or underrating Gregor Blanco!
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| 1:08 |
Ever play a holdem tournament live in a casino? |
| 1:08 |
: I’m not a big tournament guy
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| 1:09 |
: I really like the ability to play deep stacked. I almost always play cash
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| 1:09 |
Are those Copags? Copags are quality. |
| 1:09 |
: yes indeed!
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| 1:09 |
: play weekly and only have to replace the deck every year or so. best cards money can buy imo
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| 1:10 |
There appears to be a substantial amount in that pot. I will be sending a letter for my rake. |
| 1:10 |
: those chip values aren’t accurate. chop off the extra 0 on the end. it was a couple hundred bucks i think though
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| 1:11 |
: alright, y’all. I’ve gotta go write about Gerardo Parra
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| 1:11 |
: thanks for chatting!
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| 1:11 |
: talk to ya all next week
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.