August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 1/19/16

august fagerstrom: Good morning! And soon-to-be afternoon! As always, I’ll be back around the top of the hour to kick things off, so let’s start filling up the queue

august fagerstrom: Today’s chat soundtrack: Boards of Canada – Music Has the Right to Children

august fagerstrom: alright, let’s begin

Bork: Mike Ilitch seems crazy. As in spend all his money on the Tigers while he’s still alive crazy. It’s awesome right now, but further on down the line could it really hurt the Tigers financially?

Q-Ball: Wow, the Tigers are headed for a financial train wreck! But Ilitch can’t take it with him, and Detroit isn’t going to throw a parade to Mike Ilitch’s fiscal prudence. Are the Tigers Exhibit A in how an owner can drive strategy in ways that doesn’t always make long-term baseball sense?

august fagerstrom: These two go hand-in-hand

august fagerstrom: Yeah, it could really hurt the Tigers down the line, and in all likelihood, it kind of will

august fagerstrom: But, to the point Jeff’s brought up recently, there’s a different evaluation process when a team has a fixed budget of X dollars, say $120 million, and they plan to spend it all. Then, it’s easier to quibble with how the dollars are spent, and whether the funds were used efficiently. When money honestly, truly, doesn’t matter, it’s hard to be too upset with a contract, or a number of contracts

august fagerstrom: Tigers fans might not be too happy several years down the road, when the Tigers are stuck with all these albatrosses, but I’d be willing to wager the the overwhelming majority of baseball fans would love to see their team push all-in like the Tigers have the last half-decade+, even at the risk of future Philliesdom

august fagerstrom: Tigers ownership graded out very well by the community when Jeff ran those polls a couple weeks bak

august fagerstrom: back*

Zonk: I think Dexter Fowler to the White Sox makes sense if the Sox feel they don’t have the scratch for Cespedes. White Sox have protected pick. What say you? Can you think of another home for Dexter?

august fagerstrom: It makes some sense, in that he provides an outfield upgrade over Garcia. I think a lot of what you think of the fit depends on how you think of Fowler’s outfield defense — that’s what the Sox really need to improve

august fagerstrom: As for other options, none of the other protected-pick teams make much sense, except for maybe the Padres. I could see the Cardinals making a run. They’ve already received two comp picks for Heyward/Lackey, and would only have to give up the last pick of the first round, and could use some more certainty with their Grichuk/Piscotty/Pham-heavy outfield

Gus: Convince a fellow tribe fan to be optimistic.

august fagerstrom: your team might have the best rotation in baseball

Guest: The Astros will have an 81 million dollar payroll in 2016 when Gattis/Castro settle. That puts them around 22-24 in payroll. In a mid market. In the 4th largest city in America. With 2000 new season ticket buyers. On a team that is one of, if not the best team in the AL. Im disgusted. I wish Manfred would step in and end this

august fagerstrom: FWIW, reports this morning indicate the Stros could be a player for Cespedes

august fagerstrom: also, the Astros are still a really good team. when you don’t have a limitless budget (see: Tigers), flexibility is valuable

Q-Ball: Who do you think is the best FO in baseball? The worst?

august fagerstrom: Best: Cubs, and small market teams like the Rays, Indians and A’s are impressive, though comparing those with the Cubs are kind of apples and oranges. Worst: D’backs? Rockies? Twins seem kind of weird, too

TJ: Do the White Sox make another big move ?

august fagerstrom: It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them sign Cespedes

Q-Ball: If you were GM of the Rockies, and had full control, what moves would you make with the club?

august fagerstrom: how much weight do I have in pushing for relocation?

august fagerstrom: starting to think it’s simply not possible to build a sustainable winner at altitude

august fagerstrom: it’s a cop-out answer, but I honestly don’t know. It depends so much on whatever the loads of research they’ve surely done on team-building at Coors would show.

august fagerstrom: I do like the strategy of signing hitters and trading for pitchers

Eminor3rd: What do the White Sox do now? I don’t blame them for not wanting to pay Cespedes $130m+, but it’s hard to swallow leaving that black hole in RF after trading for Frazier, no?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, especially when a potential black hole still exists at SS, maybe even 1B/DH depending on what you think of LaRoche. It would be way more comforting if they at least had a platoon for Garcia. Him as an everyday player on a contender is scary

Warehouse: Upton in Detroit – do we see an increase from last year and, if so, how much?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, not unreasonable to expect an uptick due to ballpark. Upton’s probably what he’s been the last few years though: wRC+ between 120 and 130 with meh defense and solid baserunning

Zonk: What players stand out to you as really intelligent, based on your experience?

august fagerstrom: Chris Archer is one of the smartest people I’ve ever talked to

august fagerstrom: Super down-to-earth, too. I did a story on him at a local youth event in Cleveland at a little league park. We talked about that for 20 minutes or so and then ended up shooting the shit for another 20 minutes off the record about books on a park bench. He’s a really personable, insightful dude

august fagerstrom: As far as baseball stuff goes, Brandon Moss thinks about the game in a very intelligent way, and obviously Trevor Bauer knows his stuff. I’d love to talk to Votto

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Is Upton’s signing the first domino to fall in a run of free agent hitters? It seems like the market for hitters this year has taken an awfully long time to play out.

august fagerstrom: aren’t too many dominoes left, are there?

august fagerstrom: seems like the domino thing never really happened

Q-Ball: With the Tigers and White Sox making major additions this offseason, Royals kind of treading water, how do you rank the AL Central at this point?

august fagerstrom: I rank it as a complete and total crapshoot, maybe moreso than any division. The only thing I think I’d be confident in is ranking the Twins as the fifth-best team, though still a decent club

august fagerstrom: gun to my head, I probably say:

august fagerstrom: Royals/Indians top 2 in some order, Tigers 3rd, White Sox 4th and Royals 5th?

august fagerstrom: sorry, Twins 5th

Willy: What do you think about the Mariners chances at the WC

august fagerstrom: it exists.

august fagerstrom: it exists for 14 other teams in the AL, too, though.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Consider the following hypothetical: Mike Trout suffers a catastrophic injury this year and it saps his baseball playing ability so much that he can only manage another five seasons (or whatever he needs to get to the 10 year HOF eligibility threshold) at straight replacement level play. Is his otherworldly start to his career enough to get him into the HOF?

august fagerstrom: if he’s literally worth 0.0 WAR over the next five seasons, then no, I think he tragically misses out

august fagerstrom: if he plays 2 more full years, and is then replacement level for 3 seasons, putting him probably at 50ish WAR or so, then yeah, I think he gets in

august fagerstrom: or even if he can just manage, like, 6-7 WAR over the next five years somehow, just being a contributor in some way for several more seasons, I think he gets close. really would have a hard time seeing a guy who only contributed *at all* in 5 seasons making it, though

NutButters: Are the Yankees really going to patch up their middle relief on the hopes of Shreve returning to his early form, or the emergence of Lindgren? Any chance Fister could be had on a one year incentive laden contract to become the new Warren?

august fagerstrom: Fister’s probably going to sign with the intention of being a starter.

august fagerstrom: Nova’s probably the swingman right now, right? Could be an interesting option out of the bullpen, as any former starter is

august fagerstrom: Beyond that, the middle relief work might be sketchy, but between Shreve/Lindgren/Rumbelow/Mitchell/Pinder you hope you find something, and those guys only matter if the starter can’t make it 6, for the most part

august fagerstrom: I think they’ll be able to live with occasionally having to bridge the gap with one inning of those guys

bobthewalrus: What kind of return could the Os get if they wanted to trade Adam Jones?

august fagerstrom: well, a trade of Adam Jones in the present seems entirely unlikely, to begin with. the Orioles didn’t sign Chris Davis to trade Adam Jones

august fagerstrom: so assuming this scenario begins next year, that leaves 2 expensive years of Jones at ages 31 and 32. the bat has been declining for four consecutive seasons, and the plate discipline seems to hint at a high potential bust rate when some of the power goes. Jones, to me, seems like a scary aging bet. I’m not sure the Orioles would be able to get a very substantial return

august fagerstrom: perhaps a flawed prospect or a couple interesting lower level guys

2-D: What do you think of the Dee Gordon extension?

august fagerstrom: I think it’s fine. Gordon improved offensively and defensively last year, is in his prime, and extensions usually look team friendly when they happen

august fagerstrom: whether it actually keeps Gordon in Miami is anyone’s guess, but the value seems in line

Cory S.: Do you get the feeling that even though the Tigers’ added lots of depth to their BP, it will still be a glaring weakness? Depth Chart has them ranked 27th with a projected 1.8 WAR.

august fagerstrom: I actually kind of like the look of the pen. It’s the rotation that I think could burn them

Bill: Central?: Indians, Tigers, Royals, Twins, White Sox?

august fagerstrom: I switched a couple teams around when I did this earlier, but this is close to what I had and also entirely reasonable. I don’t think there’s any arrangement that would look silly, really, aside from maybe a first-place Twins/last-place Royals argument

Kvn: Cespedes likely goes to ChiSox or Angels now, right?

august fagerstrom: Seem like the two most likely destinations, though I still wouldn’t rule out Texas, St. Louis, or apparently even the Nationals yet

Guest: How good do you think Justin turner can be next season?

august fagerstrom: as good as he’s been the last couple years, which is a 4+ WAR player when healthy, but I certainly wouldn’t count on anything more than that

Lars: At the end of the season, which of Dipoto’s moves do you think will look the best? The worst?

august fagerstrom: Aoki at 1/5 strikes me as particularly shrewd, and Iwakuma at 1/12 could pay major dividends, given innings

august fagerstrom: Not crazy over Cishek 2/10, and especially not crazy over their apparent insistence of using him in the 9th rather than Benoit, but roles can easily be changed, and that’s the worst that two payments of $5M can do to a baseball team?

J: Doesn’t it feel like pitchers are being highly prioritized this offseason?

august fagerstrom: yes. the amount of money given to mid-rotation innings-eaters is particularly surprising. it should’ve always been considered a possibility that Price and Greinke blew what we expected out of the water. the 5/80 baseline for the Leake’s and Kennedy’s of the world are the unexpected ones

Curtis: Knebel a good late flier for possible saves in MIL?

august fagerstrom: Blazek and Jeffress in the mix, too

K-Man: Who is the greatest living player?

august fagerstrom: Barry Bonds

Phil: Shouldn’t the O’s be all-in on a pillow contract for Fister to close out their offseason? With that defense it seems a good fit and they MUST get a 5th MLB-caliber starter.

august fagerstrom: yeah, the O’s really need more starting pitching. their rotation is entirely suspect

august fagerstrom: and at this point, it’s pretty much down to splurging on Gallardo, or betting on a Fister/Latos bounceback if you want any upside with an iota of reliability

Curtis: Can Banuelos pull 25 st/4.00 era in ATL this year?

august fagerstrom: now a couple years removed from TJ, we should really get an idea of who he is this year. not really sold on the arsenal. 4.00 ERA over 150+ innings is probably an upper-bound projection

Jim: Steamer has Nelson Cruz looking at a 1.6 WAR 2016. He’s getting older, obviously, but how long would he need to outperform projections for the projections to change? This question is valid for any player I guess.

august fagerstrom: the projections are changing every year. his outlook as a hitter has gotten better and better the last couple seasons, while he also gets older and older

august fagerstrom: he’s been worth less than 2 WAR more often than he’s been worth more than 2 WAR in his decade-long career, and now he’s 35

august fagerstrom: he’s not going to suddenly begin projecting as a 4 win playet

august fagerstrom: player*

Todd: I have long thought that a trade centered around T. Bauer from the Indians for C. Dickerson from Rockies would make a lot of sense for both sides. Why aren’t the teams talking along those lines…or am I crazy?

august fagerstrom: makes sense in principle. Entirely possible the Rockies want nothing to do with Bauer, too

Eric: Over/Under 110 games played for Jose Reyes in 2016

august fagerstrom: between possible suspension and health risk, I guess I’d take the under

Art Vandelay: “…On a team that is one of, if not the best team in the AL. I’m disgusted.” I’m very confused by this stance, shouldn’t you be happy that your team is so good without crippling their future selves like the Tigers? A good team with a low payroll is still a good team. Enjoy it.

august fagerstrom: kinda where I stand too

Bork: Dumb Armchair Rockies GM here. Just sign/trade for extreme groundball pitchers and then sign/trade for high contact hitters.

august fagerstrom: Rockies have been targeting ground ball pitchers for years with nothing to show for it, though

Carson: After Iwakuma falling to the M’s, they are in a tricky – but good – situation with their rotation. If everyone is healthy out of spring training, what do they do? Keep a guy they traded Brad Miller for out of the rotation? Keep a guy they traded Carson Smith for out of the rotation? Paxton gets more AAA time?

august fagerstrom: Paxton, to me, seems like the odd man out, but I think I’ve always been lower on Paxon than most

august fagerstrom: other possibility is Karns. with health, Felix, Iwakuma, Walker and Miley should all be considered rotation locks

Buff: If the Rockies don’t trade one of their outfielders before the start of the season, how likely is it that they do so before trade deadline, and which is/are most likely to go?

august fagerstrom: if they don’t do it by Opening Day, it might be even less likely they do it by the trade deadline, because you never know who’s going to get hurt or how they’ll play. also think Dickerson to first remains a possibility

august fagerstrom: Gonzalez still strikes me as the most likely to go, regardless of what reports out of Colorado say

Nelson: Im sure this has happened before, but 3 of the 4 major award winner were arb cases (and Harper was pre-arb) How does a team go into the hearing- Well Josh Donaldson, you were good, but not really that good.

august fagerstrom: they wouldn’t make the argument that Donaldson wasn’t good, but rather they’d point to things like regression, based on historical comps, defensive aging curves, etc.

John: Any chance the Indians could deal for Carlos Gomez? Perhaps with a package centered around Bauer or Perez + Anderson?

august fagerstrom: possible but unlikely

Zonk: Speaking of White Sox, they must really hate Alexei to not want to pay him even $4 mil. Or they love Tyler Saladino. Which is it? Palehose seem really thin at SS right now.

august fagerstrom: well the option was for $10M with a $1M buyout, but I get your point that the Padres getting him for $4M looks like a steal. that definitely seemed like a questionable move at the time, but perhaps the fact that he could only get $4M on the market says something about him that we aren’t seeing

Jesse: Has there been an example in recent memory of someone taking the Dipoto approach of buying low on just about every offseason move? If so, how did it turn out?

august fagerstrom: not sure. would be interesting to look into. for what it’s worth, I think the Mariners have had a sneaky good offseasn

Nelson: How many teams would take on Miggy’s contract right now?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think many would

Eric: Do you think Fowler is going to have to wait until after the draft to sign?

august fagerstrom: no

Steve: Bradley Zimmer – David Murphy or Grady Sizemore?

august fagerstrom: inbetween!

august fagerstrom: also, Grady Sizemore is like an impossible comp to put on anybody

august fagerstrom: predicting “Hall of Famer turned nobody” is difficult

august fagerstrom: if you really want a Bradley Zimmer comp, go with Christian Yelich

Crazy Buck Martinez: Bottom 3 teams in the AL now?

august fagerstrom: Twins, Orioles, A’s?

Crazy Buck Martinez: Best Lineup in Baseball?

august fagerstrom: Blue Jays AL, Cubs NL

Sirras: Gun to your head, why are people holding guns to your head to ask questions about baseball?

august fagerstrom: the world is a scary place

Meowmix: I find Justin Upton to be really boring for some reason – not bad, just boring. Are there any otherwise decent players that for some reason make you say “Meh”?

august fagerstrom: agree that Upton strikes me as strangely uncompelling, given how good he is.

august fagerstrom: maybe Evan Longoria?

august fagerstrom: just a good hitter and good player without any real remarkable qualities that stick out

Sirras: Mets, Cubs, Indians as the top three rotations in baseball (not necessarily in that order) – you buying? If no, who are you replacing and with whom?

august fagerstrom: yeah, those 3 comfortably stick out from the rest in my eyes

Josh: thoughts on a DH in the NL? there was recent noise this weekend about it… as a traditionalist, I would love it… you know cause the DH has been around my entire life and then some… time to get rid of the crazy variation that forces different leagues to alloacte resources differently yet compete against each other

august fagerstrom: I’m all for it and think it will be a reality before too long

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: That Trout hypothetical was kind of a long winded way of asking if he had accomplished enough in his career thus far to elicit an HOF induction, while accounting for the 10 year service time requirement.

august fagerstrom: just shy. but close

august fagerstrom: which is completely and utterly insane to think about

Guest: Could you see a scenario where the Mariners move the fences back at Safeco?

august fagerstrom: not anytime soon, no

Sirras: Build your ideal pitching arsenal by selecting 3-4 pitches from 3-4 different pitchers

august fagerstrom: ooh! i love this

august fagerstrom: can I mix relievers and starters?

august fagerstrom: that seems unfair. we’ll stick to separate

august fagerstrom: for relievers, you start with Chapman’s fastball, obviously

august fagerstrom: then add in Jansen’s cutter for same-handed batters……. Familia’s changeup for opposite-handed batters and….. Kimbrel’s curve as the neutralizer? Betances’? Cody Allen’s?

august fagerstrom: for starters, the first pitch that I’d need to have is Cole Hamels’ changeup

august fagerstrom: that one strikes me as entirely obvious

august fagerstrom: would definitely take Fernandez or Kluber’s breaking ball, too. Give me Fernandez. Darvish’s slider comes to mind, but I’m not sure its shape is the perfect fit when we’ve already got the Fernandez breaking ball. Maybe would want something more horizontal, like Liriano’s. And then give my Syndergaard’s fastball

august fagerstrom: that was fun

august fagerstrom: So, our reliever is Chapman fastball, Jansen cutter, Familia split-change and Kimbrel curve. Our starter is Syndergaard fastball, Fernandez breaking ball, Liriano slider and Hamels change

august fagerstrom: good pitchers

K-Man: What’s your favorite home run of all time?

august fagerstrom: Bonds off Percival

K-Man: Are you going to keep the regular chatting role or is the Fagerstrom-experience axed in favor of the Farnsworth-event?

august fagerstrom: not sure! think I’ll continue to chat, but Farnsworth’s gotta get mixed in here somehow

Brent Henry: You’re willing to post a “what would the O’s get for A Jones” question but not any of my music recommendations? How dare you.

august fagerstrom: I’m saving them internally!

august fagerstrom: they’ll be listened to, and they’re much appreciated

Greg: You say the Twins 5th in the Central. They’ve got a nice looking offense coming together. Sano, Buxton, Plouff, Park, Mauer. Rebound for Dozier?

august fagerstrom: I say the Twins 5th in the AL Central under the presumption that all 5 teams in the AL Central are playoff contenders, as well as the other 10 teams in the American League

august fagerstrom: Twins have some exciting spots and some not-so-exciting spots, just like the rest of their division rivals

Joe: When John Coppolella was asked about his opinion of the WAR stat during a twitter question session, he replied that it’s a useful stat but overrates defense. Is that a common belief among GMs & front offices?

august fagerstrom: not sure, but he’s certainly not the first to have that opinion

august fagerstrom: More often than “overrate” defense, the gripe you hear is that it places too much weight on defense, given our relative confidence in the ability to evaluate single-season defensive performances. Maybe those are the same things, but it feels like there’s a distinction

august fagerstrom: Like, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think a player can be worth 30 defensive runs a season, a la Simmons or Kiermaier. So in that sense, I don’t totally agree with the notion that defense is “overrated.” But if you don’t take defensive metrics at face value, and therefore don’t take WAR at face value due to the fact that it treats its confidence in evaluating offense and defense as equal, then I’d say that’s a fair gripe

Arthur: Do you think it’d be wise for the Mets to trade any of their young pitching? If so, who and for what?

august fagerstrom: nope

august fagerstrom: if anyone, Wheeler, but that sure is selling low

Jay: August who is the better pitcher Tyson Ross or tanaka?

august fagerstrom: Tanaka, I guess

Derek: As a Phillies fan, I want Aaron Nola to become an ace. From what I read and see, he has three plus pitches with superb command. However, everyone pegs him as a #2 or high #3. What do you think he could add that would elevate him to Acehood?

august fagerstrom: same thing that elevates any #2 upside guy to acehood — improved command, more movement, more velo. hard to see those things coming. with Nola, though, he’s young, and he’s already been effective, and the upside is there. you hear him pegged as #2 or a higher #3 because people want to be generally conservative when projecting out toward the future. he’s got as good a chance to develop into an ace as most young guys with #2 labels being put on them

Raindog: Do the O’s have anything to trade? They desperately need a corner OF and a SP, but what do they have to give?

august fagerstrom: I was thinking about this earlier. Just given the state of the Orioles roster at the beginning of the offseason, I think they made as much sense as any AL team to blow it up, but there’s also not much to blow up. Machado isn’t going anywhere, and Jones doesn’t have massive trade value, and Gausman’s not exactly the kind of piece you want to give up in a rebuild, either. they were in an interesting spot, and that’s how you end up trying to stick around contention by resigning Chris Davis and Darren O’Day

august fagerstrom: which I think were fine moves. just a weird spot for their roster

Sirras: You need (for some strange reason) to have a pitcher paint your house by throwing a sponge against it. If they throw too hard, they’ll break the wall. If they are inaccurate, it’ll be patchy-looking. If they throw inconsistent speeds, it’ll be patchy-looking as well. Who do you ask to paint your house?

august fagerstrom: Mark Buehrle is painting this house.

august fagerstrom: Mark Buehrle might literally paint a house during the 2016 baseball season, too

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Carlos Correa looks like he has the makings of a masher at the plate, with legitimate 35+ HR potential and good wheels. That’s a potential MVP candidate. But have there been rumblings behind the scenes that he may just not have the range for SS? He looks like a future 3B once he fills out. Maybe within the next 3-4 years.

august fagerstrom: yeah, this has been the thought for a while. he looks fine for now, and it seems like guys who impress early end up sticking longer than what was expected before their debut. he probably won’t be a SS forever, but it’s not unreasonable to think he lasts beyond 3-4 years

Raindog: Fowler, if they can afford him, would make a ton of sense for an Orioles team that needs another OF and a leadoff man, yes?

august fagerstrom: it’s another fit that makes some sense, yeah.

Bork: Brett Cecil continues to dominate this season. What kind of contract does he get next off season? 3/30 a starting point?

august fagerstrom: O’Day money seems reasonable

Morris: What kind of player will michael conforto be in his prime? Can you see him putting together a few 5 WAR seasons?

august fagerstrom: not sure he’ll have the defense/baserunning numbers to go along with the bat to rack up that kind of consistent overall value, though my god did he grade well in left last year

august fagerstrom: there’s certainly some sample size issues in 400 innings of left field, but I guess better for the numbers to have a plus sign in front of them than a negative

GN: Any idea if anyone else was truly in on Davis or what the next best offer was?

august fagerstrom: nope. all anyone ever heard for real was Baltimore

Cam Newton: When will someone get 100% hall of fame vote and who will it be?

august fagerstrom: Jeter challenges Griffey. if Jeter doesn’t get it, it might never happen, and if it does, I’d guess it’d be someone we don’t yet know about

Zonk: I wish I was GM of the Phillies right now. Because I am going to look like a genius when we are the beasts of the NL East in 2018+. Want to join me as an assistant?

august fagerstrom: Phillies future is shockingly bright, given what we all thought of that organization just a couple years ago

august fagerstrom: they appear to have done well in their rebuild

PS: If you were the Yankees, would you ever be tempted to try and stretch Dellin back out to a starter?

august fagerstrom: nah

august fagerstrom: he’s immensely valuable where he is, and he throws 2 pitches. he’s a reliever

Ernie Camacho: Yo August! Are the 2016 Steamer splits you drew from for your Tigers post this morning publicly available? I’d love to see how some of the Tribe platoon pieces are projected to split.

august fagerstrom: I got those from Jared Cross, who does the Steamer projections. they’re not public yet, but they will be

tony: there is not a more boring yet productive player out there than Matt Holliday.

august fagerstrom: great answer

Sirras: Build a 5-tool player using 5 tools from 5 different players

august fagerstrom: this one seems easier than the pitchers. Billy Hamilton’s speed, Jose Altuve’s hit, Giancarlo’s Power, Kiermaier’s glove, Puig’s arm

august fagerstrom: might actually take Kiermaier’s glove AND arm tbh

Sirras: How many chats would a person have to ask a question in before you would begin to recognize the name?

august fagerstrom: I almost never look at the names

j6takish: You know that scene in airplane where everyone is killing themselves rather than listen to the guys story because its so boring? That’s what I imagine it is like to talk to mark teixiera

august fagerstrom: welp!