August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 2/2/16

august fagerstrom: it’s February!

august fagerstrom: we’ll chat at noon

august fagerstrom: chat soundtrack: Pixies – Come On Pilgrim

august fagerstrom: and then probably also Surfer Rosa because Come on Pilgrim is so short but damn if that’s not one of the best EP’s ever

Joe in GA: Are you the prospect guy or just the weird name guy? I forget.

august fagerstrom: weird name guy only

Northsider: Great music choice. Just spent my morning with Surfer Rosa!

august fagerstrom: *fist bump*

Joe: Is Andrew Cashner a fit for the Orioles? What would it take to get him, if so?

august fagerstrom: absolutely, and it shouldn’t take too much. he’s a FA next year, owed $7M this year coming off a season in which he had a -1 RA9-WAR

august fagerstrom: he’s obviously much better than that with considerable upside, but he doesn’t have immense trade value

Bork: The Ian Kennedy contract keeps getting worse and worse. A $6M buyout if he decides to opt-out? What?

august fagerstrom: yeah, it’s definitely a bad contract. I’ve been thinking about it, though, and in a perhaps misguided way, I can kind of see where the Royals are coming from, if they truly think they’re going back in the tank when Hosmer/Cain/Moustakas/everybody walks after 2017. I mean, if he’s not good, and they’re saddled with the contract through the rebuilding years, they might just… not care? and if he’s good and walks, then he’s good during the time that they want good players?

august fagerstrom: I don’t know, that’s probably not a good way of thinking about it, and the Royals probably aren’t / shouldn’t plan on just being bad starting in 2018

august fagerstrom: but it’s maybe a way to rationalize it?

august fagerstrom: there’s gotta be rationalization in there somewhere

Stu: Surely, the Royals are shaking in their boots as the Indians have signed 34 year old Napoli, 35 year old Rajai, and now possibly 37 year old Uribe? And they wonder why fans dont go to games

august fagerstrom: got a pretty good roster in a division that seems pretty up for grabs

j6takish: besides inventing a time machine to go back and try harder to sign upton/cespedes, what do the white sox do?

august fagerstrom: sounds like Andre Ethier, which would be a nice fit, though it wouldn’t do a ton to help that whole “putrid outfield defense” thing

august fagerstrom: then again, neither might Fowler. or Upton

Richard: What are your expectations for Steven Souza this year? Is he a 20/20 guy? Does Dickerson’s arrival dampen his stock?

august fagerstrom: yeah, Souza’s probably going to start the year in the minors and needs an injury or something to get the call back up

august fagerstrom: Guyer definitely leapfrogged him in the pecking order last year, and obviously Kiermaier/Dickerson/Jennings/Pearce are above him on the outfield depth chart. He’s their 5th outfielder

Matt: If a short stop fielded every ball perfectly that was in the upper limit of possible range, how many wins is that worth?

august fagerstrom: depends on your definition of “possible range” but I’d guess 5 wins? Andrelton’s peaked at ~3 so far and I can’t imagine there’s *too* many he’s missing out on

The Other Sox: Is there anyone the White Sox can sign to make them the favorites in the AL Central?

august fagerstrom: not at this point, no, but the division looks to be so up for grabs that their spot on the win curve could make any addition pretty impactful

Raindog: True or false: the difference in expected production between Fowler and Austin Jackson will not be worth the difference in money they get + a draft pick.

august fagerstrom: prooooobably true

Raindog: Over/under on Hyun-soo Kim this season: 0.7 WAR

august fagerstrom: over

Trystan: When do you think the ETAs of the Nationals: Turner, Giolito, Robles and Lopez may be?

august fagerstrom: Turner’s the closest. Could even crack Opening Day but I kinda doubt it

august fagerstrom: Giolito’s arrival depends on health of current rotation. They’d probably like to exercise caution but if something happens I could see him being up fairly quick too

august fagerstrom: Don’t know much about Robles and Lopez but they seem to be further off

Trystan: Would Papelbon be worse than Trump?

august fagerstrom: at being the President?

august fagerstrom: yeah

PJ: If you were to theoretically line up Goldy/Votto’s careers once they are done, who has the advantage as a hitter for each season in which they were the same age? So far, their 25-27 years are fairly similar.

august fagerstrom: still see Votto aging better than anyone

Trystan: In your travels have you ever seen a grip that has truly astounded you? Any pitcher you know have small hands?

august fagerstrom: better question for Eno

Gary: Something I find frustrating as a fan: why aren’t obviously good players extended ASAP, when it’s most favorable to the team? We all know the Orioles should have extended Machado after his first season, but why haven’t the Red Sox jumped on Betts and Boegarts, the Mets Syndergaard and deGrom, etc etc?

august fagerstrom: players have to agree to the extension, too

august fagerstrom: delaying it = betting on yourself for more money

Nelson: Is corey Dickerson gonna be a platoon player in TB?

august fagerstrom: he should be

august fagerstrom: Dickerson/Morrison should go to the bench for Guyer/Pearce against all lefties pretty much

Alex: About what year do you think the peak difference between smart front offices and dumb ones was (or is it this year)?

august fagerstrom: total speculation but maybe like 2008 or so? seems even the laggards are catching up now

Nelson: Would adding Freese even give the tribe an extra half win over internal option?

august fagerstrom: yeah I think him or Uribe could add 0.5 – 1.0 WAR, given your opinion of Urshela’s 2016 floor/ceiling

august fagerstrom: half a win probably more realistic

august fagerstrom: unless you’re exceptionally bearish on Urshela

Guest: Bundy for Cashner, who says no?

august fagerstrom: Orioles Orioles Orioles

Derek: So I’ve been listening heavily to Mars Volta lately. Who’s a MLB player that’s like them? Super weird and makes no sense at first, but after digging a little deeper, you begin to realize they’re one of the better acts in the last few decades?

august fagerstrom: Chris Young?

august fagerstrom: the big one

august fagerstrom: also good choice also At the Drive In reunion!

PS: Greg Bird–talk me off ledge

august fagerstrom: if everything went right for the Yankees this year he wasn’t in the picture anyway

august fagerstrom: hurts depth more than it hurts the present day Yankees

august fagerstrom: the more worrisome concern is that it’s a lingering issue

Trystan: Do you think pitching for flyouts is dying out?

Trystan: Will the flyout…die out?

august fagerstrom: THE CLOTHES OFF… POSE OFF

august fagerstrom: not much evidence toward that theory – http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2015&month=0&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Trystan: Would you rather throw 100 with a slider or 95 with a curve?

august fagerstrom: I’d love to crack 70

Tonald Drump: How is wRC calculated?

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

Juan Pablo Taquito: Give me your expected end of 2016 SS top 5

august fagerstrom: doing this by WAR?

august fagerstrom: Correa

august fagerstrom: Seager

august fagerstrom: Lindor

august fagerstrom: Bogaerts

august fagerstrom: Tulowitzki

Trystan: I would like a fourth pitch behind my Sinker, Change and Curve but I pitch sidearm and can’t get the rotations on a slider. Thoughts? Eephus?

august fagerstrom: 4seam?

Schmohawk: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez this year? How much of a concern is his shoulder?

august fagerstrom: shoulders are always scary, maybe even moreso than elbows, but if the stuff looks to be there early, he might be the best pitcher in St. Louis

Bork: Will you be my valentine?

august fagerstrom: sure thing, Bork.

E5: They changed Zach Godley from reliever to starter last year with good results. Any opinion on his ability to stick in the rotation?

august fagerstrom: well there’s almost no chance he opens in the rotation

august fagerstrom: he’s probably the 7th or 8th option. command problems, lack of pedigree, I wouldn’t be super optimistic of him as anything more than a decent depth piece

Guest: If you had to bet on one team in the AL to win 100 games, who would it be?

august fagerstrom: Astros

MRK III: Which 5 guys from the recent top 100 prospect lists do you think make the biggest impact this year, excluding guys who have already been called up (Seager, Buxton, etc)?

august fagerstrom: real life? coming from someone whose entire knowledge of prospects is what he reads on the internet, i’ll say: Crawford, Arcia, Giolito… Gallo and… Berrios?

Chris: What do the Red Sox do if/when Rusney and JBJ falter? Castillo has shown no sign of being a major league starter and neither has JBJ sans one month last year at the plate.

august fagerstrom: Bradley’s a major leaguer on the glove alone

august fagerstrom: and his bat those first couple years was way worse than expected based on his minor league track record. He’s not last year’s JBJ at the plate, but I’d wager he’s closer to that than the first two years

august fagerstrom: Young and Holt are useful depth pieces if Rusney just isn’t that good, which I agree is a definite possibility

Buff: Arodys Vizcaino: over/under 20 saves?

august fagerstrom: over

august fagerstrom: wait

august fagerstrom: yeah

Juan Pablo Taquito: Which top 20 pitcher gets TJ this year?

august fagerstrom: let’s not

E5: Jason Rogers decent playing time in PIT? Jaso isn’t going to lock 1B down full time, right?

august fagerstrom: anyone’s guess, but if he even plays a passable 1B, then yeah, he’s playing everyday vs. RHP with Morse handling lefties

august fagerstrom: shouldn’t count on Rogers getting much PT at all until we see Jaso at first

Tonald Drump: What happened to Howie Kendrick? How did he make such bad business decisions?

august fagerstrom: qualifying offer is not good for players

Free Gucci: Are you a believer in Jeff Samardzija?

august fagerstrom: believer that he’ll be better than last year

august fagerstrom: believer that the National League is quite a bit friendlier than the AL, especially when you play half your games on the west coast at AT&T

Nate: Most likely landing spot for Fowler?

august fagerstrom: the Angels can’t seriously keep doing what they’re doing, right?

Jeet: Sano was the ugly stepsister to Buxton’s star potential. What happened to Buxton? Do you think Max Kepler (who everyone is superhigh on) will have the same fate?

august fagerstrom: he struggled in the first 40 games of his major league career and has dealt with injuries for the better part of 2 years

august fagerstrom: and he’s 21

august fagerstrom: with insane upside still

august fagerstrom: even money on Buxton having a better career than Sano still

august fagerstrom: at least

E5: Why are you so excited about February? February, even in a leap year, is the shortest month, therefore the dumbest. That’s sound reasoning, right?

august fagerstrom: less excitement moreso than a statement of fact. I’m pretty liberal in my exclamation point usage

august fagerstrom: February is a pretty trash month tbh

Raindog: Would a year of Jay Bruce at $13M cost the O’s less than Cashner? Should they even want him given the last two years?

august fagerstrom: yes/probably

Bill: % chance we’ve seen Kris Bryant’s best season?

august fagerstrom: by WAR? 55%

august fagerstrom: by wRC+? 20%

tom selleck: cashner for rizzo, who says no?

august fagerstrom: what

Free Gucci: Do you think Addison Russell moves up on the order if he hits or do they keep rolling with him at 9th

august fagerstrom: no reason for him to hit higher than 8th in that lineup

tom selleck: how many wins is the best manager worth? worst manager?

august fagerstrom: I think the worst manager can cost you more than the best manager can win you

august fagerstrom: literally pulling this completely out of my rear end but my gut tells me the best managers are worth like 3 wins and the worst managers could be like -4 if they don’t get fired?

Gary: Kinsler a Hall of Famer? Already has 45 WAR on BREF, only 33. Is his case pretty much identical to Dustin Pedroia’s?

august fagerstrom: nope

august fagerstrom: neither is Pedroia

K-Man: Who’s the better 3B, Turner or Arenado?

august fagerstrom: Arenado

Tricep: Think Upton will hit 30+ HR?

august fagerstrom: I would take the under

Richard: Martin Perez a bounce back guy this year? xFIP numbers were a lot better than the actual ERA & I hope his 5.5 K% can rise in his 2nd year from TJ….

august fagerstrom: I’m not a big fan, personally

august fagerstrom: he’s pretty much ground balls only

august fagerstrom: which is nice, but he lacks plus command or plus stuff. not much room for error

Derek: Most under rated NL/AL hitter and pitcher? Most over rated?

august fagerstrom: not sure the general public realizes how good Mookie Betts and AJ Pollock are

august fagerstrom: probably the 3rd and 4th-best CFers in baseball and top 15-20 overall players

august fagerstrom: maybe you were looking for lesser known guys but oh well

tom selleck: will trout be viewed as the best player of this decade?

august fagerstrom: yes

Sheriff : Whose #1: Trout vs Harper?

august fagerstrom: Trout

jtt: I’ve successfully thrown a curve ball one time in my life but it was in front of dozens of my peers at a pickup game. It was a perfect 12-6 and since it was probably only going like 65mph it had like 4 feet of drop. Everyone was in quiet awe. I proceeded to retire 3 batters all on flyouts while working around 3 walks

august fagerstrom: I was always a middle infielder but one time I pitched and I somehow struck out the side on three curveballs. the plan was that I would under no circumstance pitch a second inning, but the first went so well that I came back out for a second. first-pitch curveball got absolutely hammered and I didn’t pitch anymore

Garg: Do you think Kang comes back and hits 30 bombs or are we still waiting/seeing?

august fagerstrom: why don’t we set our sights on 20 first

Deranged Jays fan: Does my team have a shot at winning the East again?

august fagerstrom: sure

august fagerstrom: I’d probably have em behind the Red Sox and Yankees but, like every AL division, it’s a total tossup

Ping Pong: I have a feeling Wainwright will be fresh and ready to rock. Where are you on him?

august fagerstrom: he’s come back from TJ once already with success, and he looked like vintage Waino in limited time back last year. he’s probably not 220 innings ace he used to be, but no reason he can’t be a solid “No. 2”

Shape: What would it take for Miami to win the East?

august fagerstrom: dark thoughts

Bird Alert: Do you think each of the Indians’ “Big Three” have better results this year due to improved defense behind them?

august fagerstrom: yeah, full year of good defense is better than half year of good defense

august fagerstrom: they had some pretty brutal sequencing last year, too

august fagerstrom: particularly Carrasco IIRC

FireDrayton: Have the Astros done enough this offseason? Feels like they could have been more aggressive, but maybe they’ve got enough in the pipeline?

august fagerstrom: agreed but they’re probably the best team in the AL, IMO

Eric Blair: If the jays are out of contention by the trade deadline and decide to blowup the team, they have the players to sell to build a very impressive team for a number of years. Yes, no, maybe?

august fagerstrom: yep, and good lord would that fanbase hate Shapiro

Butthead : Do the Dodgers have an advantage facing Grienke since they’ve helped him develop, know the repertoire, timing etc? Or am I overthinking this

august fagerstrom: probably overthinking it

Derek: Speaking of who gets TJ this year, I got into a Reddit argument about ppl who did a gambling pool on which pitcher gets TJS first. I said its in poor taste and I got flamed for it. Humans are mean aren’t they?

august fagerstrom: google Derby Dead Pool

Derek: If Pedro Alverez signs with NYY and is a strict platoon, what would his triple slash look like?

august fagerstrom: no room for him in NYY

august fagerstrom: there wasn’t room for Bird, there certainly won’t suddenly be room for Alvarez

Ross: Is James Paxton a top 5 lefty starter in baseball if he can just stay healthy?

august fagerstrom: no

Adam: Do you think it’s good everybody is writing the nats off? They seem to be better when expectations are lower

august fagerstrom: are they? Nats look to be a pretty good team

Matt: What is the real difference between Bryant and Sano? Bryant seems to have a lot more hype, but they seem pretty similar to me. I might even like Sano more.

august fagerstrom: speed and glove, mostly. agree that the offense is about equal

K-Man: the Sano article was great, thank you for that

august fagerstrom: appreciate that

E5: Once on a camping trip my mother once hit me on the head when I was wearing a baseball cap, right on that button thing. It hurt like the dickens so I called her a b#^ch. She got upset and walked away so I threw DD batteries into the bonfire. They exploded an hour later, sent ash flying all over the campsite, but no one was hurt. I showed her!!!!

august fagerstrom: that’ll do.