August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 2/9/16

august fagerstrom: hi all! we’ll get this thing started shortly after noon EST

august fagerstrom: soundtrack: The White Stripes – White Blood Cells

august fagerstrom: let’s begin!@

The Dude of NY: After reading your Gallardo article, would you say, as of now, the White Sox are the most star-and-scrub team in baseball?

august fagerstrom: them or the Angels

Bork: Is this where we talk about the big Leafs/Sens deal???

august fagerstrom: I guess not because I have no idea what that means

hi eno: hi august

august fagerstrom: hi hi eno

Rob: Which makes more sense for the White Sox, signing Fowler and losing the comp pick or signing Austin Jackson and keeping the pick?

august fagerstrom: I think the latter, which is why there might an argument to be made AGAINST my Gallardo post today saying they should just sign Latos or even someone like Lincecum or Masterson for cheap to build the depth without sacrificing the pick, but I also think the difference of the level of certainty with Gallardo/Latos is much higher than the difference between Fowler/Jackson, so I’d be more willing to part with the 28th selection to ensure you get the 180 IP from Gallardo

august fagerstrom: Gallardo+Jackson seems pretty perfect for the Sox

cecilfielder: What happened to brady aiken? Never heard his name post draft last year

august fagerstrom: He had TJ in March so he was still working his way back. Every indication I have is that the org is pretty high on him and thinks they got a steal

Raindog: Agreed with your article about Gallardo fitting better with ChiSox than O’s. But the O’s still need another pitcher, so I’ve been imagining someone like Latos, or maybe Lincecum to provide ~150 acceptable innings. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: Latos could be a bargain, but as I discussed above, if I’m Chicago and I’m giving up the pick to someone, I’d rather it go to the pitcher because I see a wider gap between Gallardo/Latos than Fowler/Jackson

Petey: Great album choice. Jack White is the best live show you’ll ever see.

august fagerstrom: Funny story: I saw him play with The Dead Weather at Bonnaroo in, I believe, 2010. He primarily drums in that band, but he came out from behind the set to play lead guitar for one song. It’s like 95 degrees and sunny in the middle of Tennessee, mind you, and I shit you not, the moment he plucks a chord on the guitar, the skies open up and a light rain falls. It was the most amazing feeling. It rained for about 4 minutes, or, shortly after he stopped playing guitar. It was the only rain of the entire weekend

august fagerstrom: Jack White playing guitar opened up the skies

Estivage: Surely it doesn’t make sense for the Rays to be in for Desmond. Small upgrade at best over Miller, won’t come cheap and that No.13 pick is massive for small market teams.

august fagerstrom: yeah I don’t see the fit

Richard: Any health concerns for Wacha & C. Martinez after last September ? Thanks

august fagerstrom: Shoulders are always worrisome, but you’d rather they happen then, giving them a full offseason to recover and build strength, rather than have something pop up in ST and they have to work through it on the fly

Big Man Boss: Expectations for Blake Swihart in 2016?

august fagerstrom: You just hope to see big improvements defensively, because without them he’s no longer a major leaguer

Lee: Is Mark Teixeira a HOFer?

august fagerstrom: no

GSon: Are you going to Goodyear for a glimpse, a round or two of golf and the sunshine?..

august fagerstrom: Still up in the air whether I go. If I do go, a round or two of golf won’t have anything to do with it, though, because I have absolutely 0 golfing ability

Jimmers: Will Marte bat cleanup this year? His numbers last year in that slot: 196 AB’s – .327/.373/.464. Or will it depend on the pitching matchup?

august fagerstrom: using batting order splits is a surefire way to have a bad time

august fagerstrom: the only batting order split I’d ever put any credence in is maybe leadoff, only in the first inning. and even then, I’d need a pretty massive sample to convince me that a guy is significantly different in that spot than any other

El Jefe: 2 part question. Better 2016 and better career – Carlos Rodon or Carlos Martinez?

august fagerstrom: lot of it depends on how Martinez looks early in ST — see if there’s any lingering shoulder issues, but health aside, I’ll take Martinez next year and probably Rodon long-term

rustydude: After a solid debut in MLB last season, Eduardo Rodriguez finished with a 4-ish ERA and FIP. Steamer projects a similar performance in 2016. Meanwhile, reports are that he’s working on some new pitches, i.e. cutter. Do you find any reason to be a little more optimistic than the projections show?

august fagerstrom: I think you can always talk yourself a little bit one way or the other based your own “eye test” or things that projections don’t see like the addition of a pitch, etc. If your heart believes he’ll be better than the projection, let yourself believe it. For what it’s worth, I am an E-Rod fan, generally speaking, but there’s nothing specific I can point to that makes me, personally, expect him to beat his projection

Natitude Adjuster: Who will spend more days on the DL in 2016: Anthony Rendon or Stephen Strasburg?

august fagerstrom: if this was an actual bet I would bet on the pitcher

Raindog: Austin Jackson seems like a potential bargain to me. Only 29 years old, 2.3 WAR last year, plays CF worthy defense. Chat hosts keep saying he had a bad second half, but his second half wRC+ was 108. Am I missing something?

august fagerstrom: I can’t speak for others, but I think the general cause for concern with Jackson is that he doesnt have the power or speed to make up for what appears to be rapidly eroding strike zone control, and there have been mixed reviews on him defensively in CF

august fagerstrom: I agree that he could be a potential bargain, but he’s also the kind of player that’s like one more decline away from being useless

Guest: My favorite fangraphs writer has long hair, is way into music, and is of western European descent.

august fagerstrom: Agreed. Eno is great.

BurleighGrimes: What is the most exciting trade that is going to happen between today and opening day?

august fagerstrom: the Javy Baez one

Bork: Are the Orioles in the worst possible position in regards to their starting pitching? They can’t give up a draft pick, but the (decent) starting pitching left has a draft pick attached, and if they were to go after one of those, they really should of gone after one that would bring more value.

august fagerstrom: yeah, I really thought they’d have addressed the rotation through a more substantial trade, or a smaller deal for a guy like Happ or Fister without draft pick compensation

august fagerstrom: I probably like the Orioles outlook, as a whole, less than any other AL team

jtt: If they are going to sign Gallardo they may as well sign fowler afterwards

august fagerstrom: Wouldn

august fagerstrom: Wouldn’t usually hate this line of thinking, but worth remembering that the only guy the White Sox got in the first 4 rounds last year was Fulmer

august fagerstrom: Tough to totally gut the front end of their draft back to back years

Merv Summers Dang It: How much better should Carrasco be than Cueto this year? Or…not?

august fagerstrom: would certainly count on him being better

august fagerstrom: Carrasco is just way more dominant than Cueto. A healthy Cueto is tough to beat by *much* though

Ross: Do you think we see more first half Cano this year or the second half monster version?

august fagerstrom: The first half Cano was the surprise

august fagerstrom: He’s always been more like the second half one

TheOtherSoxFan: Given their division, what might be the White Sox’s reasons for not taking a chance on Ian Desmond and, say, Austin Jackson or some other outfielder who is at least replacement level?

august fagerstrom: Well those guys are still out there and the White Sox could still sign them

august fagerstrom: I think Jackson makes a ton of sense, and I think there’s a pretty good chance the Sox end up with at least one of Jackson/Fowler/Desmond and probably a pitcher, too

Raindog: The White Sox and Orioles have identical needs, don’t they? Another SP and an OF. Is it taking forever because the teams just waiting for one of Fowler/Jackson/Gallardo/Latos to blink?

august fagerstrom: It’s the qualifying offer. Both teams would rather *have* Fowler and Gallardo, but both teams would rather *sign* Jackson and Latos

Bron: Did you know there is a Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence? What score would you get?

august fagerstrom: i have never smoked a cigarette before so hopefully 0, if that’s the best score

august fagerstrom: Though my mom smoked in the house growing up so maybe I would register on there somewhere

Russel: What are your expectations for Rob Kaminsky this year and beyond? After watching video of him I can’t help but see a smaller Drew Pomeranz.

august fagerstrom: he’s definitely more of a low-ceiling, high-floor type

august fagerstrom: The key is adding a third pitch beyond the curve. That was the main emphasis of development last year. He needs another weapon if he wants to be more than a back-end ground baller

cecilfielder: What city are you based out of?

august fagerstrom: Kent for now, downtown Cleveland very soon

Derek: Is Glasnow going to do what Syndergaard or Harvey did last year? Also I cannot recommend Jack White live enough…saw him back to back in Miami last year and I couldn’t breathe because I was so happy.

august fagerstrom: you never want to expect a Syndergaard or a Harvey, but Glasnow’s got as good an arm as any young pitcher who will likely make an impact this year, aside from probably Giolito

Ross: More likely to happen; Cano rebounds to previous MVP candidate form or Cruz repeats last years numbers?

august fagerstrom: Cano

Russel: Who do you see making the Tribe’s opening day roster out of Robinson, Grossman, Choice, Almonte, Butler, Cowgill, Davis, Naquin, Ramsey, and Walters?

august fagerstrom: well Almonte is the starting center fielder

august fagerstrom: that one’s a lock

august fagerstrom: I’d say opening day OF is Davis-Almonte-Chisenhall with Cowgill and probably Butler on the bench

august fagerstrom: Naquin first one up if they need an OF

njs: there’s been some debate about aj pollock’s projections being super low (he’s projected for 4 WAR but has produced ~6.6 WAR over his entire time in the bigs… which is about 1500 PAs). thoughts? (ditto goldschmidt: he hit 7.5 WAR last year and is projected for something like 6 this year).

august fagerstrom: yep, I’d take the over on both of those, and it’s already one of the best projected one-two batter combo’s in baseball, even with the seemingly low projections. Steamer totally isn’t buying the last ~800 PA from Pollock

Ernie Camacho: % probability that one of Uribe or Freese is the Tribe’s opening day third baseman?

august fagerstrom: 40%

GG: Why do people think the Red Sox are going to be good? Is it really that outlandish that I don’t think Price and Kimbrel are enough? I see Boston last in the division again.

august fagerstrom: Well obviously Price and Kimbrel are massive upgrades, and that bullpen is stacked with Smith, too, but I wrote about this earlier: I think one of the big things people forget about is that regression goes both ways. Hanley and Panda were worth like -5 WAR last year. Even if they’re just average players, you’re talking like a 7-9 win swing

august fagerstrom: Nobody should actually expect those two to be the two worst players in all of baseball again

Cory S.: Swihart not a major leaguer as is? Had a .312 wOBA and a .712 OPS as a rookie who was surprisingly pushed into a role. League average is .296 wOBA and .678 OPS. He was also only 23.

august fagerstrom: Right but if he needs to improve with the glove to stick at catcher, because if he’s not a catcher, the bat doesn’t play anywhere else

Danny: No need to go into too much detail or even share if you don’t want to, but what happened with the Cleveland gig?

august fagerstrom: with MLB? That was just an internship

Rick: Cespedes, Meyers, Castro, Heyward, Sano: Which of these position changes is most likely to go the way of Hanley Ramirez?

august fagerstrom: Sano, easily

Duke: Don’t understand the love for the LAD. Aside from Gonzalez, Kershaw and Jansen, they have a great degree of uncertainty at every position. Why does Fangraphs rate them so highly?

august fagerstrom: Well we don’t choose what the projections say, but it’s got a lot to do with fantastic depth and a top-3 player in baseball

august fagerstrom: I guess we have differing views of “uncertainty” too with respect to guys like Seager and Puig

august fagerstrom: I’ll take uncertainty when the uncertainty is “uncertain whether he’ll just be a 3-win player or one of the very best in baseball at his position”

Cecil Fielder: Speaking of cigarettes, that report about yopenis cespenis smoking too much between innings cracked me up

august fagerstrom: One of my favorite stories in recent memories

august fagerstrom: Still kinda cant believe it

Geebs: With what’s left on the FA market, what if anything can the O’s do to be serious contenders in the east?

august fagerstrom: It’s too late to be a “serious” contender I think. The good thing about the AL is, there’s not enough separation for anyone to be out of it. O’s have a chance, I just see them as more of a longshot than most due to that rotation right now

Bork: How true is the quickly made Cleveland tourism video?

august fagerstrom: Obviously embellished and they highlight the poor spots, but all of that stuff is real. There are very nice parts of Cleveland, too, though. Downtown is nice and has made big strides in recent years

Mike: Yulieski Gourriel: which team scoops him up?

august fagerstrom: auto-response: Dodgers

Guest: Any guess what tlop stands for the new kanye album?

august fagerstrom: no idea but god damn I can’t wait any longer

Bubba Starling: Do the Royals really go into the season with a Dyson/Orlando platoon in RF? Why not give Eibner a look? He’s gotten better and better, excelled in AAA last year, and put on a Ruthian spring training with the big league team before that.

august fagerstrom: Dyson/Orlando has the chance to be a sneaky valuable platoon

august fagerstrom: I’d love that if I were a Royals fan

august fagerstrom: Dyson’s had roughly 2 full seasons worth of PA and has 10 career WAR!

august fagerstrom: Obviously propped up some by defensive metrics and only facing righties, but it’s not a horribly small sample of defense and he’s expected to continue only facing righties!

august fagerstrom: Gordon-Cain-Dyson/Orlando everyday platoon is a huge upgrade from Gordon-Cain-Rios with Dyson and Orlando on the bench

Russel: Do you think TJ House ever gets confused for Johnny Manziel?

august fagerstrom: i do not

Bad Hermit: I saw you on TV. Has your cease and desist order arrived from Rust Cohle yet? Or is the lack of a mustache a material difference?

august fagerstrom: lemme google that name real quick…

august fagerstrom: I am way better kempt than that dude

august fagerstrom: better kempt? more kempt?

Ryan: Multiple references to Chris Cotillo in your article, you buy him as a legitimate source?

august fagerstrom: yeah

august fagerstrom: plus he’s been chasing Gallado the most, so those were the tweets that popped up when I twitter searched “Gallardo”

Bork: How high are you on Tulo’s durability this year?

august fagerstrom: as high as ever, which is not much

august fagerstrom: at least one 15-day DL stint should be expected

Alan: Hey August, can you rank who you think will be the top 5 pitching performers for the NL east this year (in order)

august fagerstrom: well Kerhsaw

august fagerstrom: then…… Fernandez, Arrieta, Scherzer and the 5th one is tough. I’ll go with Syndergaard

august fagerstrom: also think I just got tricked into a fantasy question

Guest: Why does war hate dh’s?

august fagerstrom: because they’re only like 60% of a full player

doc ellis: does kevin kiermeier ever significantly progress as a hitter, or is this what he is? is he a MVP candidate as a 110 wRC+ bat?

august fagerstrom: I think he is what he is, and no he’s not

august fagerstrom: he is super good, though

august fagerstrom: but voters would never seriously consider someone who hits as little as he does for MVP, no matter how good the glove/base running is

Chad: At what age/year of experience do we have enough data/knowledge to confidently predict someone as a plus or minus outfield defender? In Soler’s case, what is the chance he has to improve to a average/plus defender?

august fagerstrom: well generally you want 3 years, or ~3000ish innings

august fagerstrom: but it’s not like you can’t use the eye test, too

august fagerstrom: scouts never liked Soler’s glove, and he hasn’t *looked* good, and the first year’s worth of numbers are bad enough to where it would take a lot of squinting to see an average defender

august fagerstrom: What he’s done so far has just backed up what scouts expected him to do, and I don’t think many eyes would disagree with the numbers. Makes it a little easier to buy into 1 year’s worth of defensive data. It’s when the numbers disagree with the eyes/scouts that you want more data before you draw a conclusion

kp: Which two teams ( one AL one NL) do you feel more strongly about than most others this coming season?

august fagerstrom: Think I still like the Dbacks more than most in the NL, and it’s hard to get a gauge for how the general population feels about the Red Sox but I like them more than any other team in the AL East

Hero: Do you see Danny Salazar taking another step forward in 2016 or did we see his peak this past seasons? Furthermore, would you say he has a “safe” floor? Thank you

august fagerstrom: I’m personally higher on Salazar than most, and think he puts himself up near the Kluber/Carrasco company this year. Maybe this is a bias that comes from being around the team every day, but he’s really a student of the game, and changed so much about the way he pitched last year, and the way he *thought* about pitching, that it makes it easier to see him taking another step forward. I’m sure you could say that about plenty of pitchers, which is why I admit my bias that comes from being around him more than others, but he really impressed me both on and off the field last year

august fagerstrom: Big Salazar fan

august fagerstrom: And yeah, the swing-and-miss stuff he’s got keeps his floor pretty high

Justin: You said something about the most exciting trade being “the Javy Baez one”. Know something that we don’t’?

august fagerstrom: nope, just answered the question with the first thing that came to mind

Harry Arrieta: I think the Cubs should lead off with Bryant and Schwarber who get on base and will hit for plenty of power but also strike out a bit, and follow them with Rizzo, Heyward, and Zobrist who aren’t likely to strand too many runners and will also get on base at high clips. I seem to be the only Cub fan I know that is thinking this way. Does it make sense or would you go with the traditional line of thought for their lineup?

august fagerstrom: Think you’d “waste” too much power leading off Bryant or Schwarber. Lead off Zobrist and get a similar OBP and not as many “empty” solo homers

august fagerstrom: Heyward, rather

Guest: Wait cespedes is a chain smoker?

august fagerstrom: yes he smokes cigarettes in the god damn tunnels between innings

Riley: Im sorry, I hate to be this guy, but syndergaard, conforto and wheeler for trout who says no?

august fagerstrom: everybody all at once and me too, right now

august fagerstrom: NO

GSon: As a golden flash and former resident (half a house on college st).. It doesn’t seem to be a wise financial decision to be moving to the down town area of the north coast.. have you had a concussion or are suffering from concussion-like symptoms?

august fagerstrom: gets me a block away from the stadium, which is essentially my office

august fagerstrom: Commuting 45 minutes every day was a bitch last year

Won I: If you were building a bullpen who would you start with – Kimbrel, Jansen or Betances?

august fagerstrom: Betances

august fagerstrom: not much difference in talent between those 3, and Betances has less mileage/can throw more innings

Danny: For a month there, Rusney was performing like a $70 million dollar player. Do you think he has a breakout season? Maybe top 25 OF?

august fagerstrom: Not buying the bat — wrote about this last week. Defense/speed keep his floor relatively high though

Gruden: Do you think Neil Walker gets QO this upcoming offseason? If so, does that make the trade for Niese an enormous win for the Mets?

august fagerstrom: Yes he does and yes I like that trade for the Mets, though “enormous” may be overstating it

War2d2: On the Soler topic: do you think it’s a fair assessment to say that his best-case comp would be Nelson Cruz? Or is his more of a less-power/more-average guy? (emphasis on “best case,” I realize not everyone hits their top comp)

august fagerstrom: Yeah I don’t think he’s quite as boom or bust as Cruz, but it’s a fair-ish comp

august fagerstrom: Maybe pre-40 homer every year Cruz would be better

January: My name is also a month!

august fagerstrom: nice!

Guest: What’s up with everyone acting like being dubbed the “best team on paper” is a bad thing? This amazes me every time. “Oh the Cubs are the best team on paper? Cool look at the ’15 Nats LOL” As if that’s supposed to mean being good on paper means you suck or something.

august fagerstrom: More than anything I think it comes to, every year, there’s a preseason “favorite” right? And most years, that favorite doesn’t win, because it’s basically IMPOSSIBLE to pick a WS champ in February. So then people deduct “well the favorite never wins, so I dont want my team to be the favorite.” But that’s a silly way of thinking. Favorite means just that, favorite

august fagerstrom: And yeah, the Nats last year certainly didn’t help

K-Man: Why “dapperslacks”?

august fagerstrom: have always loved that juxtaposition of words that you never hear anyone use anymore

august fagerstrom: use that for my screename for everything

Gruden: People have been saying that the Indians and Cubs rotation has potential to be better than that of the Mets. I think this is crazy bc i think the Mets big 3 is better than any pitcher on either team besides Arrietta (lester wildly overrated). Can you weigh in?

august fagerstrom: Yeah I disagree. Don’t think there’s much discernible difference. I think you could just as easily argue that the best three pitchers are Arrieta, Kluber and Carrasco

august fagerstrom: To me, the better argument would be the depth of the Mets’ rotation setting them apart. Their 3rd and 4th-best pitchers are better than Chicago’s and Cleveland’s

Batman: Re: Cespedes – are there any other instances of this with other players you’ve heard of? I’m sure they try to hide it and/or TV does a good job covering it up (like with golfers, for instance), so just wondering if it’s more of a thing than we may realize.

august fagerstrom: nope I’d never heard of it and didn’t realize until I heard the Cespedes thing that I want to know more than anything which ballplayers smoke

Chuck: Tips for growing hair out?

august fagerstrom: buy a nice shampoo (go to an actual salon and get a coconut-oil based shampoo. the oils found in store-bought shampoos actually damage your hair) and only shampoo once every 2 or 3 showers

august fagerstrom: wear hats through the awkward stages

Matt: But August…It seems like that “on-paper-champ-who-fails-to do-anything” is always the Nationals, doesn’t it?

august fagerstrom: if “always” is “the last 2 years” then I guess

august fagerstrom: and even 2 years ago I dont think they were the consensus slam dunk that they were last year

kevinthecomic: Does anyone ever call you Auggie? I had an Uncle Auggie. He lived in Niagara Falls, NY. Did you know him?

august fagerstrom: a few, but moreso when I was younger. I don’t mind it

Dale: If some team signs Mike Trout as a free agent, is that a splash or a big catch?

august fagerstrom: BOOOOOOOO

august fagerstrom: we’ll end on Dale’s bad joke