August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 3/29/16

august fagerstrom: Heyyo! Chat begins at noon. Soundtrack: Mogwai — Mogwai Young Team

august fagerstrom: Alright, let’s do this

Bork: Is Joey Votto’s new uh…batting stance…the best thing ever?

august fagerstrom: Yes, yes it is.

august fagerstrom:

august fagerstrom: “I’m thinking.” is the greatest response he could’ve possibly given. I love the idea that he thinks so hard he has to bend over

august fagerstrom: I think #TrollVotto might already be in effect

Domingo Santana: Over/Under 22 home runs?

august fagerstrom: Over! But I’m probably biased. Love me some Domingo.

Carlos Martinez: Am i the best pitcher in Missouri?

august fagerstrom: Well Adam Wainwright probably has that title due to his career accolades. But I think you’re currently the pitcher most likely to have a dominant season, yes.

Rerto: Any chance Gregerson closes to start the year for the Astros with Giles struggling this Spring?

august fagerstrom: Would reek of a cheap Astros arbitration ploy if it were the case. Gregerson is good, but he’s nowhere near the pitcher Giles is

JV: Storen or Osuna win the closer job?

Ritt Momney: Blue Jays supposed to be announcing the closer today…who ya got?

august fagerstrom: Probably Storen. Seems that’s been the thought all along. He’s more “proven,” arbitration prices probably come into play here, and there isn’t much difference between the 2

august fagerstrom: Osuna’s probably a bit better but there’s not enough difference between the two to make a fuss

marcus: will Tyler White be any good?

august fagerstrom: I have my doubts. Actually writing a post about this to go up either tomorrow or Thursday

august fagerstrom: Some of his comps are less than inspiring, though his minor league numbers are admittedly pretty crazy

Tom: Do you like Joe Smith, Joakim Soria, Pedro Strop, Kelvin Herrea, or Kevin Jepsen to pick up some holds in a saves/holds league?

august fagerstrom: Sure. Those guys will get some holds this yaer.

august fagerstrom: year*

Andrew: Does giving up on Rusney Castillo this soon seem shortsighted?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sold on him ever being an above-average big league hitter, and it’s not like the Red Sox are lacking in OF depth. He’s got more value to other teams in CF than he does to the Red Sox in LF, especially given that the Monster likely deflates his defensive value

august fagerstrom: I don’t think it’s a bad idae

august fagerstrom: Especially with Benintendi not far behind, as Cameron noted in his column this morning

august fagerstrom: OF defense* is what I meant to say, not depth

ewell: What are your thoughts on Sano and, more importantly: if he were a pitcher, who would he be?

august fagerstrom: My thoughts on Sano are that he’s going to be one of the very best hitters in baseball as soon as this year

august fagerstrom: If he were a pitcher he’d be Kenley Jansen. Just absolutely overpowering with the one thing he does

Bron: What does Freeman do this year? IS it possible to have a good year in such a bad lineup?

august fagerstrom: Sure it is. The wrist is far more problematic than the lineup

Big Joe Montferrant: If you (August Fagerstrom) were given 100 AB vs Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, which would you have more success against (1995 Maddux and 2001 Randy Johnson)??

august fagerstrom: Goodness.

august fagerstrom: I guess it would have to be Maddux, right? There’s at least a chance I can hit 90. I don’t think I ever touch 97. Not to mention I’ve got better bat control from the left side of the plate, so I’d be way more likely to at least put a ball in play lefty vs. Maddux than I would righty vs. Johnson

august fagerstrom: Though I’m quite certain I’d go 0-for-100. Could hopefully make contact against Maddux a couple times though

Otis: How many ABs do you see John Jaso getting in Pittsburgh? I know he’s platooned, but only 3 LHP starters in the entire division, and only Lester with any real major league resume.

august fagerstrom: Is that 3 LHP starters thing real? That’s kind of remarkable

august fagerstrom: Still, with his (assumed) defensive limitations, left-handed relievers, injury concerns, it’s hard to see him topping 400 in any possible scenario, and 300 is the more likely bet

august fagerstrom: (That’s PAs, not ABs)

Bork: How high are you on Aaron Sanchez? Think he’s got his control issues figured out?

august fagerstrom: Even though I lobbied for him to get the rotation spot, I’m still not *super* high on him. Not ready to say he’s solved his control issues yet, and he could really use a third pitch

august fagerstrom: That being said, he’s an adjustment away from having a really, really high ceiling. The movement on that 2-seamer at 96 is just insane.

Zorak: I know, I know, spring stats are meaningless, but I got Pat Corbin for cheap in my fantasy auction and god damnit I’m excited! That K/BB ratio tho

august fagerstrom: Should be more excited about what Corbin did last year. He barely missed a beat from his 2013 season when he was considered one of the next aces in baseball

Brian: Hi August, Do you think AJ Reed and/or Jose Berrios will come up to THE SHOW16 before June? Thank You

august fagerstrom: Berrios, I doubt, because if the Twins have a pitcher struggle or get hurt, Duffey is probably the first one up

august fagerstrom: Reed is maybe a little more likely if White struggles, because they don’t have any faith in Singleton and might be forced into putting Reed’s bat into the lineup if they get off to a slow start. Still unlikely either franchise starts the clock before they need to,t hough

august fagerstrom: That’s just the general rule of thumb across baseball

august fagerstrom: If a guy isn’t cracking the Opening Day roster, his team probably isn’t starting his clock a year earlier than they have to

Mark: As a Ph. D. chemist may I note that Rob Arthur’s existence makes me feel bad.

august fagerstrom: Rob seems like one of those guys you can’t do anything but love (and his writing is amazing), but he also makes you hate him just a *little bit* inside for being such a better, more well-rounded person than you are

august fagerstrom: I say that having never met or spoken to the guy

Matt Hardpee: So now that we know Harvey isn’t up to being a #1, should the Mets convert him to a reliever?

august fagerstrom: -__-

Michael: Would you be surprised if Correa was the AL MVP this year?

august fagerstrom: I guess not.

august fagerstrom: I mean I guess it would be a little surprising Trout didn’t win it, but it’s tough to ever take one guy vs. the field, and Correa is probably the leading candidate for the field

Playing with the Young Team: Farquhar or Colome?

august fagerstrom: If any team were to truly stick to a closer by committee, it’d be the Rays

august fagerstrom: So, both.

Bron: Whats the biggest trade left this offseason?

august fagerstrom: Not much time left, but I still feel like the A’s and Rays will each make a move

august fagerstrom: Rays need to do something with the Loney/Morrison/OF logjam, and the A’s are in a similar situation with all their OFs

GSon: Excited to see Tyler Naquin starting in CF for the Tribe?.. Does he remind you more of Dr Smooth, or Grady?

august fagerstrom: Neither

august fagerstrom: He’s a 4th outfielder with a good glove. Fans are probably too excited for him, even though he is the best CF option they have

august fagerstrom: That’s more a reflection of the Indians having a really bad outfield than it is him being a future everyday CFer though

Jon: In the next couple of years, do you think the “Angels wasting Trout” situation ever gets to the point where he demands or asks to be traded?

august fagerstrom: Doesn’t strike me as a Trout move

august fagerstrom: Could see his agent speaking up though

august fagerstrom: It’s such an ugly situation over there

august fagerstrom: Between the contracts and the farm system, I can’t see how they can turn it around in the next few years

Zorak: Think Sano makes it through the whole season in the outfield? If he’s a Hanley-esque disaster in right, how does he gets in to the Twins line-up? Bench Mauer or hope somebody gets hurt?

august fagerstrom: Trade Trevor Plouffe

Erik: Would prospects be brought up significantly earlier if service time didn’t matter? Did, say, Kris Bryant gain anything in a month of AAA that he wouldn’t have gained in the majors? Will J.P. Crawford be a better player five years from now if he rakes in AAA until September, rather than struggling in the Majors for a bit?

august fagerstrom: For sure

august fagerstrom: AJ Reed and Kris Bryant would have both been on the Opening Day roster

august fagerstrom: And plenty others

Dead Space: Explosions in the Sky are so good.

august fagerstrom: So good.

august fagerstrom: Been on a big post-rock kick lately — Mogwai, EiTS, Godspeed

Brian: What are your thoughts on Anthony Rendon?

august fagerstrom: The injury concerns aren’t just limited to last year — he was hurt in the minors a bunch too

august fagerstrom: So that’s problematic

august fagerstrom: That being said if he’s healthy he’s a 4-5 WAR player

GSon: how long before the need for offense makes the Indians wish they had made a deal to bring in a bat (e.d. Rangers Mazara/Brinson/Gallo + another prospect for Anderson / Tomlin / Bauer)?

august fagerstrom: Those trade proposals are nuts — Rangers would never give any of those guys up for Anderson, Tomlin, and/or Bauer

august fagerstrom: I do think the Indians will be forced into a midseason trade for a bat though

Forsyth: Now that the Red Sox are officially going with a Holt/Young platoon, O/U on wRC+ in LF: 120?

august fagerstrom: Steamer projects Holt for a 92 wRC+ vs. RHP and Young 112 vs. LHP. I’ll take the under

Luis: Is Marcus Stroman an ace at the end of the 2016 campaign?

august fagerstrom: Is Marcus Stroman an ace now?

Big Joe Montferrant: How did Ben Sheets finish 8th in Cy Young voting in 2004??? 264-32 K-BB, 7.2 WAR, 0.97 WHIP, 162 ERA+, 2.65 FIP and Roy Oswalt finished 3rd with 4.0 WAR, 124 ERA+, 1.25 WHIP, 3.17 FIP.. Same amount of innings (237).

august fagerstrom: He had a losing record on a 67-win team

august fagerstrom: We’ve come a long way since 2004

august fagerstrom: Oswalt won 20 games

WildThing: What’s your thoughts on Hector Olivera? He’s hitting for a high average, but not as much power. Any projections for him this year?

august fagerstrom: League-averageish bat who needs to not be a disaster in LF to have much value

Tom: Who makes the biggest impact this year: Glasnow, Giolito, or Urias?

august fagerstrom: Giolito

Vic: Any opinion on Jake Cave and Colin Walsh this year?

august fagerstrom: not really

august fagerstrom: sorry

Vic: What’s the latest will Will Smith’s ligament? Surgery?

august fagerstrom: From Adam McCalvy 30 minutes ago: “No surgery yet for Will Smith (knee). Will rest 3 more weeks, then try playing catch for 3 weeks after that. Then, reassess surgical option.”

august fagerstrom: Doesn’t sound great

august fagerstrom: Jeremy Jeffress is suddenly a pretty good closer option

Ren: Who is the least exciting closer with the best chance of keeping his job all year?

august fagerstrom: Huh. This is tough because guys like David Hernandez (if he’s even the Phillies’ closer) and JJ Hoover are almost certainly going to lose their jobs at some point, so can’t be them

august fagerstrom: Maybe Huston Street? Definitely not exciting, Joe Smith is doubtful to take over a closer job, the Angels traded away Trevor Gott

The Edge Of Forever: Were you surprised to see the Indians starting rotation ranked behind the Cubs?

august fagerstrom: No because they’ve been ranked behind the Cubs on our depth charts all offseason

august fagerstrom: None of the rankings were a surprise, given I manage the depth chart team

august fagerstrom: As to which rotation is actually better, I think it’s a toss up

august fagerstrom: Either the Indians, Mets, Cubs or Nationals have the best rotation in baseball as things stand now. There isn’t a right or wrong answer as to who’s the best

august fagerstrom: I do like the Mets and Indians a bit more than the other two, though.

Chief Wahoo: Do you think Salazar can take the next step and ascend to the level of greatness, or will his control hold him back?

august fagerstrom: First one is more likely. I am a big Salazar believer

Erik: How much value is there in having an IF/OF guy on the bench? It seems like it could bring a lot of added flexibility, but the bench is usually big enough to fill all the roles you need. Have any teams used this “extra” bench spot in an interesting way?

august fagerstrom: Mike Aviles allowed the Indians to carry an 8-man bullpen for much of the last two years. The Cubs could do the same if they wanted this year because of Javy Baez

august fagerstrom: I don’t think the flexibility has a ton of value (less than a win) but it’s a nice preference thing

Matt: If I’m taking a flyer between the two of Adam Conley and Sean Manaea, who am I more likely to win with? Manaea isn’t breaking camp, but he should be there soon.

august fagerstrom: Conley more certain for innings, Manaea higher upside

august fagerstrom: Depends what you need

august fagerstrom: Just answered a fantasy question

Slew: Expected slash line for Naquin?

august fagerstrom: Steamer’s projection looks fine to me. .260/.317/.374 with plus defense

Josh: Dont get me wrong were not talking about stellar talent here, but how do you see playing time going in Oakland with Crips, Cahan, and Billy Butler?

august fagerstrom: No idea — this is why I think they make a trade

Milo: I have a few Chris Bassitt and Rich Hill shares, but I’m not liking what I see so far this spring. I tend to be a patient owner, but I may need to drop one before the season as no one is liking them in trade talks. Who would you keep of the two?

august fagerstrom: Man. I guess Hill. You’d be kicking yourself if you pass up on what you saw at the end of last year and he ends up being really good

mtsw: Given Orioles paucity of plausible starters, could we see something wacky like a Matusz/Bundy tandem later in the year?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think Matusz ever makes another start

august fagerstrom: Could see Bundy in there

JV: Predictions for Byron Buxton this season? 10 homers, 25 steals and a 320 OBP? Along with the great D obviously

august fagerstrom: That’s definitely possible, and I’d even take the over on steals

august fagerstrom: He’s an 80 runner with great base stealing instincts.

Kvn: Some are already preemptively criticizing the Oriole’s reaction to Hyun-soo Kim’s ST struggles by invoking Kang’s similar line last year in PIT. How bad does an international guy you expect to start have to be in ST to justify jettisoning him?

august fagerstrom: I think it would be foolish to give up on him already

Curtis: What do you think happened with the Ms and Montero? had a good AAA season…only 26…new regime cutting old regime loose?

august fagerstrom: What happened was Montero is a designated hitter and he can’t hit. He has literally no value

Jay: Some questions: Is Profar still on the radar as a solid or better major leaguer? Is he trade bait for the Rangers? What do you think of Shane Greene? And Bracho in Ariz.?

august fagerstrom: Yes he is and given the Rangers middle infield situation, I think he’s definitely a trade possibility, especially when the Rangers realize their rotation is not a competitive one

Mike: August, it’s hindsight now but if they could, would the Jays like to undo the Chavez-Hendriks trade?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I don’t love that move. If Chavez spends > 75% of his time in the bullpen, which he will if things go according to plan, then they’d be better off with Hendriks. Not to mention Chavez is a FA after this year while Hendriks isn’t even arb-eligible until next year

august fagerstrom: That being said, Chavez’s ability to move seamlessly between the rotation and bullpen has its value, and the Blue Jays have enviable starting pitching depth, especially given some of the uncertainty that surrounds their rotation

august fagerstrom: Plus Storen/Osuna/Cecil is a nasty, underrated back end of a bullpen

august fagerstrom: I guess it’s close to a wash. I could definitely see the argument for undoing it, though.

Playing with the Young Team: Look at you bragging about about your switch hitting

august fagerstrom: Not like I was very good from either side

Slew: Nah. It’s Randy. You’re just hoping for a walk. You’re not hitting either of them.

august fagerstrom: Maybe this was actually the correct answer

Bubba: Do you think Conforto will be the everyday LF or is he platooning with someone? Also do you think he hits in the middle of that lineup this year?

august fagerstrom: Think he’s an everyday talent, but the appeal of getting Cespedes out of CF vs. LHP in favor of Lagares probably moves him to the bench more often than not

Milo: Could you see Justin Turner possibly having a breakout year? Granted, he’s always a health risk, but if he gets 550 AB’s this season, I could see him being REALLY good. Am I just a Dodgers homer?

august fagerstrom: Depends what your definition of a “breakout year” is — I’d argue he had it 2 seasons ago

august fagerstrom: He already has been REALLY good. Just hasn’t been able to stay on the field

august fagerstrom: Since joining the Dodgers, he has the same wRC+ as Anthony Rizzo and Edwin Encarnacion

El Ashaban: If I told you that one of these following people received an MVP vote, who would surprise you the least: Hector Olivera, Chris Carter, or Denard Span?

august fagerstrom: Jesus. I guess Olivera, because we’ve already seen what Carter and Span can’t do

Colin: When the Cubs signed Dexter Fowler, people said that they had signed an adequate center fielder and now Jason Heyward could go back to playing RF. Looking at the projections, Fowler doesn’t seem to be that great of a fielder, so why does this rhetoric around him being able to play a adequate centerfield exist?

august fagerstrom: Because he’s played a bunch of center field

august fagerstrom: Could be that public numbers are overstating his (negative) value, too

Jon: NL Central LHP Starters:
CHC: Lester
PIT: Liriano, Niese
STL: Garcia
CIN: Finnegan
MIL: None

august fagerstrom: Pirates seem pretty smart

august fagerstrom: Of course, they play games outside the division, too

Luis: Is AJ Reed as ready today as Kris Bryant was a year ago? Or does Bryant had better tools/ceiling?

august fagerstrom: Bryant is the better player, but the Astros’ need is just as large

Natitude Adjuster: Whoa, check out the Nats’ April regular season schedule: Braves, Braves, Marlins, Marlins, Marlins, Braves, Braves, Braves, Braves, Phillies, Phillies, Phillies, Marlins, Marlins, Marlins, Marlins, Twins, Twins, Twins, Phillies, Phillies, Phillies, Cards, Cards. Don’t be surprised if they get out to a “hot” start, and the national media starts fawning.

august fagerstrom: wow.

CamdenWarehouse: Does Swisher play in the majors this year? Ever again?

august fagerstrom: doubtful

Frank: Rusney Castillo + cash to the Indians for Cody Allen makes a ton of sense to me.

august fagerstrom: A contender trading away a top-10 closer to hand the job off to Zach McAllister and get a marginal OF upgrade does not make much sense

Nick: Holy hell August, looks like we’ve got a forecast for snow for the Tribe opener on Monday! I hope you’re ready to freeze in the bleachers like me. Kluber v Price!!

august fagerstrom: It’s nice and warm in the press box

Johnny5Alive: Mets bullpen has looked completely awful this spring. That was already a glaring weakness, but is this what prevents then from making the playoffs?

august fagerstrom: Would be more concerned about the defense, because that was bad before Spring Training

Zorn: Are you drafting Giancarlo in the 1st round this year or hands off?

august fagerstrom: I did this, yes.

Mike: Who’s the closer in Colorado?

august fagerstrom: Jake McGee, I think

Andre: I keep thinking that the Yankees are in trouble if Luis Severino is their best SP this season, because that will mean that Tanaka and Pineda are both hurt. But, is it possible that he will be their best SP even if those guys are healthy?

august fagerstrom: Very possible

andrew: Did the cubs really need Dexter Fowler, couldn’t Matt Murton on a minor league signing provide similar production (with less speed) at a much cheaper cost?

august fagerstrom: who

Johnny5Alive: Dodgers hammered with injuries. They had depth, but does this change their projection at all? Still supposed to run away with the division?

august fagerstrom: I mean, yeah, it obviously makes them worse, but I think they’re still (pretty clear?) favorites for the division

Forsyth: Those wRC+ numbers seem excessively low for Holt/Young. Particularly given Young had a 162 last year and Holt a 121. Very odd.

august fagerstrom: Holt career 87 wRC+ vs. RHP, Young 122 vs. LHP and he’s now 32. Single-season platoon split numbers are not your friend

Greg: Surprised to see Velasquez in the 5th spot for the Phils?

august fagerstrom: Nope. He might have the highest upside of any arm on their 25

ctw: who makes a bigger impact this year, Taillon or Glasnow?

august fagerstrom: Glasnow, easy

august fagerstrom: Glasnow will be up ASAP. Taillon isn’t even a guarantee to debut I don’t think

august fagerstrom: He probably will, but it’s not a sure thing, and Glasnow is 100% to pitch this year

Trainman: Correa has an insane slash line so far in spring, he has been getting on a ton with walks. Do you believe a spring training performance Can translate to regular season success?

august fagerstrom: http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2015/03/baseball-statistics

august fagerstrom: Walks, strikeouts, isolated power can be very small clues

august fagerstrom: Nothing should change your opinion of a guy much at all, though

august fagerstrom: Maybe bump his projected wRC+ up or down by a couple points

E2Brute:

august fagerstrom: Seems like a great place to end. Awesome performance of an awesome song.

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting guys. Talk to you next week.

august fagerstrom: -30-