August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 4/5/16

august fagerstrom: Welcome to a baseball chat, live from the Progressive Field press box at Opening Day 2.0

BRING IT JASO:

august fagerstrom: WHO IS THIS

BK: How’s the weather down there?

august fagerstrom: It’s cold. It’s not snowing. So, same as yesterday

nick franklin: am i no longer a thing?

august fagerstrom: As a prospect worth getting excited over? Probably not. You could probably still do some things in the bigs though. The glove isn’t good enough to hold down short, and you don’t make any contact. Sounds like a bench player.

Taveras Ghost: Hammel going to repeat last year this year?

august fagerstrom: Sure. He’s pretty much done it three of the last four years

JDogg: Is Giolito as advanced a pitcher as Thor was this time last year?

august fagerstrom: Perhaps even moreso, based on what I’ve read

Tom: Am I the only one who hopes their is some form of discipline for Chase Utley for that slide last night?

august fagerstrom: Did he actually break any rules? I’m honestly no sure.

august fagerstrom: not*

Sean: Did you see CarGo’s homerun last night? Line drive that cleared the pool in AZ. Apex of 48 feet. Unreal.

august fagerstrom: Found out earlier today that Madison Bumgarner has allowed 17 home runs ever to left-handed batters, and Carlos Gonzalez is responsible for five of them.

august fagerstrom: Huh.

BK: What do you think Bonds would slash if they decided to use him as a player-coach?

august fagerstrom: The most interesting thing is how pitchers approached him

august fagerstrom: He’d draw his walks either way, just because of how good is pitch recognition is

august fagerstrom: And as long as he didn’t just get heater after heater down the plate, I feel like he could post like a 10% walk rate or something

august fagerstrom: I think some power is still in there, too? Especially based on that home run derby he won against the Marlins players earlier this year. But probably the swing wouldn’t be consistent enough to consistently put bat to ball

august fagerstrom: Maybe like .210/.310/.460 or something?

august fagerstrom: I did not mean to write .460. I meant to write .360.

august fagerstrom: Either way, it’s probably way off. I just can’t tell if that’s ridiculous because the guy is fucking 51 and he’d be way worse, or if it’s ridiculous because the guy is Barry Bonds, and he’d actually still OPS like .900

Taveras Ghost: Would the real Jason Kipnis please stand up? Is he 2013, 2014 or 2015?

august fagerstrom: It’s definitely not 2014. The oblique killed him. I’d say his true talent level is probably something like a 115 wRC+ and average (or slightly below) defense

Matt: Greinke is doomed, right?

august fagerstrom: Can the Diamondbacks opt out

Gary: What’s your impression of the new changes at Progressive Field?

august fagerstrom: I think the stadium is significantly nicer than it was 2 years ago. The food is amazing. Right field bar is fun. To be honest I haven’t gotten the chance to peep the changes behind home plate yet

august fagerstrom: Pictures looked cool though, and the idea is nice. I’ve always appreciate the stadium where the concourse is open

Chad: Will Reyes play this year anywhere?

august fagerstrom: Hard to hell, but let’s say I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t

august fagerstrom: Tell. Hard to tell.

Dancing Dan Mcgrewww: who hangs up first: Mike Trout for Puig, Seager, Turner, Urias, De Leon, Barnes and Kiki Hernedenz to round it out

august fagerstrom: The Dodgers, like 4 or 5 names in

Az : Does Arizona actually give up anything to get a Bourn or Venable?

august fagerstrom: Could maybe see Bourn even though I don’t think it would be a great move

august fagerstrom: Venable would just be forcing a non-center fielder into center field, which is what they’re doing now anyway

Bork: Small sample size but I’m super high on Michael Saunders so far. If he’s healthy, how high is his ceiling?

august fagerstrom: Like a 115 wRC+ vs. RHP and the bench vs. LHP. Not very high

PPD: Hey August, any idea when NERD scores are coming back this year?

august fagerstrom: Think Carson usually fires them up sometime around late April

CamdenWarehouse: I’ve seen a few people predict Dusty Baker will win manager of the year. I know manager of the year is the dregs of the preseason prediction party, but it got me thinking about if Dusty should stand a chance. Matt Williams was fired largely because his incredibly talented team collapsed. If Dusty then takes that team with largely the same level of talent to playoffs, isn’t he just doing what a manger who should keep his job should be able to do? That doesn’t seem like a winner of manager of the year.

august fagerstrom: Manager of the Year is so weird. It’s basically just “manager of the team that did better than they did last year and made the playoffs”

august fagerstrom: If the Nationals make the playoffs, which seems pretty likely relative to how little we actually know, Dusty will be a MotY favorite

Some other guy: Did we learn anything from the Dodgers’ two-touchdown win over the Padres, other than Kershaw is a very good pitcher?

august fagerstrom: nope and we didn’t learn the second thing either

august fagerstrom: we did learn some fun facts, though!

JDogg: Good sign that Rendon attempted a steal last night?

august fagerstrom: Well he got thrown out, and he only attempted one in the spring. Steal attempts were another thing that Dan Rosenheck’s work revealed stabilizes relatively quickly from the spring

august fagerstrom: Wouldn’t think too much about it

Bork: This might be an incredibly stupid question, but if Brett Cecil continues to put up insane numbers, will he be offered a QO?

august fagerstrom: Would you feel comfortable with your favorite team paying Brett Cecil $4 million more than the current highest paid reliever?

William Ding: Buxton not looking good at the plate with 3 Ks swinging yesterday. Rushed to fast to MLB or the second coming of Delmon Young?

august fagerstrom: Thing about Buxton is, he’s a major leaguer even if the bat is a total disaster. His defense in CF could rival Kiermaier

august fagerstrom: So the Young comp isn’t even close

august fagerstrom: And I don’t think the bat will be a disaster

Trainman: Will there be more than 5 runs combined in that Indians Red Sox game?

august fagerstrom: I’ll say no

Tom: I kinda expect David Price to give up 6 runs in 6 innings today.

august fagerstrom: Tom’ll say yes

Gerald: Aybar, Francoeur, Grilli, Pierzynski, Jim Johnson, Kelly Johnson, Drew Stubbs, Julio Teheran…all traded from ATL by 8/1?

august fagerstrom: who wants Jeff Francouer

JDogg: Tigers fan here … what specifically happened to Salty and why did he become so cheap?

august fagerstrom: Catcher defense might be more important than catcher offense, and Saltalamacchia is one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball

thomez: Do you have any commentary on Ramsey and Walters being DFA’d ? What do you foresee as their futures?

august fagerstrom: fringy guys that get DFA’d and actually maybe get major league plate appearances

Trainman: I watched the white sox – As game last night, white sox look like a much improved team. Sale had a rough third but offensively the lineup looks more complete, defensively looks a bit better, their bullpen looks more complete. Are we under rating the white sox?

august fagerstrom: I picked them to win the division!

august fagerstrom: so

Erik: Clayton Kershaw is currently leading the league in Defense according to the leaderboard. How? Did he get tons of comebackers? I don’t know enough about that statistic to understand how that’s possible.

august fagerstrom: It’s possible because one year of defensive data is subject to tons of noise, let alone one game

august fagerstrom: Don’t even look at any of that for a couple months

chris: Is Tyson Ross’s 1.3 WHIP from last year combined with this awful first start a reason to worry about him?

august fagerstrom: No

august fagerstrom: Tyson Ross was still an amazing pitcher even with that 1.3 WHIP and one start shouldn’t much change your opinion

august fagerstrom: also don’t look at WHIP

mtsw: Is there a James Shields to the Twins trade that makes sense?

august fagerstrom: probably not. James Shields makes a lot of money, and the Twins probably feel pretty confident about their pitching depth, what with Berrios and Duffey in the minors

Joe: Why in the hell is Daniel Nava hitting directly in front of Mike Trout?

august fagerstrom: because Angels

Lightning Rod: Should we be worried about Greinke or was he just tipping pitches like Pedro Martinez was saying?

august fagerstrom: apparently he was sick. And sometimes humans are fallible

august fagerstrom: Just gonna go ahead and answer all the “should we be worried about _____ after one game” questions right now by saying the answer is No, to all of them

Erik: Did any team play more quintessentially like themselves than the Phillies so far? Howard dropping easy throws and hitting weak grounders with RISP and a nice bullpen implosion looks to be a perfect preview for the season.

august fagerstrom: Royals seem pretty Royalsy

august fagerstrom: Cespedes dropping the fly ball made for a pretty fun (or not, if you’re a Mets fan), flashback, too

Stenzy: Most underrated lineup in baseball?

august fagerstrom: Lot of people think this is a playoff team, so maybe not a good answer, but I feel like the Mets’ lineup gets underrated on account of how good the pitching is

Shane: Do you see Shane Greene having success SP in DET this year, given that he can feel the ball again?

august fagerstrom: Would definitely count on him being closer to 2014 Shane Greene than last year’s version

august fagerstrom: Hitting 97 and striking out a third of batters faced in the spring can only be a good thing

Connor: Is the red sox/Indians game going to happen today?

august fagerstrom: Yes

august fagerstrom: For real this time

mtsw: Did everyone who predicted Chris Sale to win AL Cy Young this year overlook that the White Sox defense is an enormous dumpster fire at almost every position?

august fagerstrom: Frazier and Lawrie should be plus in the infield. Rollins is probably a minus at SS but I’m not sure I’d go so far as dumpster fire. Jackson should be fine in CF. I’m not sure it’s actually as bad as you’re making it sound

august fagerstrom: Moving Eaton to a corner could make him fine. Whichever position Melky/Avisail play will be a dumpster fire, true. And it’s not like it’s a *good* defense

august fagerstrom: I also don’t anticipate them being the worst in the league like they were last year

Open Mike Eagle: Who is ahead in the race to the majors…Berrios, Snell, Giolito, DeLeon, Glasnow? Please rank of possible sir

august fagerstrom: Glasnow should be first up. Pirates need help. Giolito’s arrival is dictated by success of Roark/Ross. If either of them falters even a bit, he’ll be up alongside Glasnow the first day possible

Erik: How are plays scores with the shift on? Is it still 5-3 if the third baseman is to the right of second base, or 4-3 if the second baseman is playing right field?

august fagerstrom: Yep. Has to do with the fielder, not his location on the field

august fagerstrom: Can put an asterisk next to it if it’s a shifted play or something

Stenzy: Matt Duffy seems to have ridiculous bat speed with quick wrists. Is that something scouts missed or how can a player actually increase that like he has?

august fagerstrom: Sure. Get stronger and fine tune your mechanics

Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: I made a boo-boo with my roster construction and need to get rid of one of Schoop or Dozier. Feel like I could get more in a trade for BD and I like Schoops upside, but Dozier obviously a more proven commodity…

august fagerstrom: is this a question

Paxton Barry: Am I worth 5/110M?

august fagerstrom: Yes and the Mad Dogs will probably give it to you even though they say they’re rebuilding

lloyd: will mike trout ever play in a world series with the angels?

august fagerstrom: No

joey: am i the only one who’s unreasonably excited for the knuckleball duel scheduled for saturday?

august fagerstrom: no because now that I know about it, I am too

Erik: Trying out MLB.TV for the first time. Any announcers you’d recommend tuning into regardless of the quality of the matchup, other than the obvious Vin Scully?

august fagerstrom: This should help, even though it’s a few years old: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/broadcast-rankings-radio-and-tv-master-list/

august fagerstrom: Also, Carson will be updating this shortly

august fagerstrom: I literally used that list to choose my announcer every game last year

Poor Man’s Rick Reed: Greg Maddux admitted to setting up hitters by giving them something to hit early and then shutting them down when it mattered. What are the chances Joey went full #TrollVotto with those early swings yesterday, so he could drive in important runs later? Keep in mind, nobody will persuade me that this is not happening.

august fagerstrom: I’ll allow it

Mike: So, pitch fx misclassified some Kershaw pitches as change ups, but he did throw two and one was good… What I want to know is what if Kershaw gets better? WHAT IF!?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, the one Mike Axisa giffed was actually pretty nasty looking

august fagerstrom: That shouldn’t be fair

august fagerstrom: If he’s gonna add a good changeup (which, last night proved very little, mind you), he should be forced to ditch the curve or something

forever it: Could Mark Reynolds take over everyday 1B duties for Colorado?

august fagerstrom: Yeah. Not like Ben Paulsen is the future or anything. Reynolds isn’t either though, so Paulsen would have to play his way out of plate appearances first

Bork: Do you ever have nightmares about Lebron opting out and wake up in a cold sweat?

august fagerstrom: He’s not going anywhere

august fagerstrom: It’s the rest of the team around him that’s going to change this offseason

chris: Is Naquin here to stay on the Tribe roster?

august fagerstrom: Yep. They’ve got no one else to play CF

The Dude: How do you rank/perceive these three OF Hail Marys: Ozuna, D Santana, M Taylor?

august fagerstrom: in that order

September Nastyriver: Scooter Gennett has one HR off of a left-handed pitcher: MadBum

august fagerstrom: damnit! Screwed up my own fun fact. Should’ve went with that, rather than Bumgarner’s No. allowed to lefties

Bruce: Did the Indians and the Braves both lose the Bourn/Swisher for Johnson trade?

august fagerstrom: Nobody wins with those three guys

august fagerstrom: Chris Johnson hit one home run, so I guess the Indians win

august fagerstrom: They said they did it for roster flexibility, which makes sense, but I guess they also could’ve just done what the Braves did and cut them both

august fagerstrom: Did it with Johnson anyway

Guest: Think Julio Urias sees some significant time in the Dodgers rotation this year? He’s so good…but so young still

august fagerstrom: DeLeon probably has dibs, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Urias up later in the season

Erik: Is there a list somewhere of when various stats become reliable? When is the first time we can confidently say we know something, and what?

august fagerstrom: This should help:

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-samples-become-reliable/

Halp: Tons of attention on teams using the shift this year. Most announcers are against it and say the teams pitchers are against it as well. What say you?

august fagerstrom: If it wasn’t a good idea, I don’t think every team would be doing it more and more every year

august fagerstrom: Announcers tend to not be great baseball strategists

Bruce: Projection systems are understandibly not super high on Justin Turners 2016 offensive output. Given 500 ABs, do you think its a safe bet he goes over his Steamer .273/11Hrs?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I’d take the over. He’s a significantly different hitter than the pre-Dodgers guy that’s still being considered in his projection

Halp: Roman Quinn for Trevor Bauer who says no?

august fagerstrom: the Phillies

You Better You Better You Betts: What’s your belief in where the best hitter in a lineup should hit:2 or 3? I say this because Sunday Pirates placed McCutchen 2 and Freese 3rd. Or does it really even matter?

august fagerstrom: The best hitter should usually hit second, but no, it doesn’t really matter that much

august fagerstrom: Teams should always do the thing that puts them in the best position to win, but fans generally get way too worked up over lineup construction, relative to how much of a difference it actually makes

Art Vandelay: May looked pretty good in the bullpen yesterday for Minnesota. Two strong innings. No question, he just seems like he’s going to be a force this year.

august fagerstrom: He’s a good pitcher. Surprised he’s effectively being made into a full-time reliever so quickly

Make WAR not Love: pillar catch yesterday, early club house leader for best play of the year. Thats going to be tough to top

august fagerstrom: Might have been more impressed by Billy Hamilton’s play TBH

Bryceroni: Trevor story over/under 500 PA’s this season?

august fagerstrom: Over. He’s the Rockies everyday shortstop

Reginald Denton III: Sale had a rough third last night, but it was right after a long top half of the inning in which the Sox plated 4 runs. Anything to the notion that after a starting pitcher sits for a long offensive half inning he’s cold the next inning and more vulnerable?

august fagerstrom: Not sure off the top of my head. This feels like something Russell Carleton would have written about

Frank: You don’t have to tell us which ones, but are there teams you have negative emotional feelings towards for one reason or another?

august fagerstrom: nope!

august fagerstrom: I root for/against nobody in baseball, and pay more attention to the Indians than other teams because I’m here every day

Craig: When the Blue Jays traded for Troy Tulowitzki, everyone just talked about the bat. But, he is still one of the best defensive SS in the game, and much much better than Jose Reyes. His range is really good and his arm is still a strength. Do you think even as his bat slows down, that his defense can still be good enough that he’ll remain one of the best SS in the game according to WAR?

august fagerstrom: Well his defense will slow down as the bat slows down

august fagerstrom: Probably even quicker, in fact

Kevin: What do you think are the best stats to look at when evaluating pitcher performance?

august fagerstrom: K-BB%, GB%

august fagerstrom: Swinging strikes

WLX: Do high leverage Relievers get the same Score for WAR that a mop up guy gets? Seems like not all outs are created equal from a pitchers standpoint?

august fagerstrom: Yes, leverage is in reliever WAR

You Better You Better You Betts: Cespedes is playing in center today with Conforto DHing and De Aza in left. What’s wrong with Collins?

august fagerstrom: How certain are we that De Aza is a better center fielder than Cespedes? I’m not

CB: Who do you draft if you were the GM of the Browns at #2?

august fagerstrom: couldn’t tell you the name of a single player in the NFL draft

august fagerstrom: that’s not true actually. I know who Joey Bosa is. so I’ll say him, because I can’t say anyone else

Bork: There needs to be a 24/7 series just following around Votto. Not the Reds. Votto.

august fagerstrom: I’d tune in

Greg Oden: Will Bryce Harper ever play in a World Series with the Nationals?

august fagerstrom: He has a better chance than Trout

august fagerstrom: Even considering fewer years with the team

BEAST: Do you expect Ortiz to continue with a similar level of production to 2014-2015 in his final year? Would be amazing for a 40-year-old.

august fagerstrom: at this point, I don’t think we have much reason to believe he’ll decline. If he hasn’t already, I guess he’s just not going to

e: Did you only pick the white sox to win the division so you wouldnt look like a homer?

august fagerstrom: No, I think it’s reasonable to believe with Brantley’s injury, Chisenhall’s injury, a starting CF who’s never seen major league pitching, and two veterans (Byrd/Uribe) who essentially didn’t have a ST, that the Indians could get off to a slow start despite being (I think) the most talented team in the division

august fagerstrom: Though fear of being called a homer likely influenced my subconscious

Erik: If the Cubs wim the world series under Epstein in the next few years, does he go into the Hall of Fame? Would mean he ended the two big curses, rather quickly too.

august fagerstrom: Yes

April Dirtybrook: Any chance that Adonis Garcia has gone all JD Martinez on us (selling out for power at the expense of contact) in order to give himself a chance at a major league career?

august fagerstrom: Wouldn’t go that far yet, but he’s certainly an interesting story

Turbo Sloth: Are you aware of a collection of the best names “including nicknames” in baseball history? I find some great ones just looking for other players in the fangraphs search bar

august fagerstrom: Tough to beat this collection: http://cespedesfamilybarbecue.com/2016/01/12/introducing-the-cfbbq-best-name-bracket-presented-by-baseball-reference/

Jay: Do you believe the Red sox have a plan? they seem to blow everything up every few years

august fagerstrom: I’d imagine they have a plan, yes. I also imagine with a different GM, that plan has now changed

CamdenWarehouse: are you excited for The Arm?

august fagerstrom: Very.

Jason: What will it take to get attendance in Cleveland turned around?

august fagerstrom: Probably a World Series appearance

e: I dont want to put the TV above the fireplace. My wife wants to put the TV above the fireplace. Are we putting the TV above the fireplace?

august fagerstrom: Probably but for the record I’m on your side. In all likelihood your TV will be too high.

Zorak: Should the Rockies draft/develop only hitters, and then use those hitters to trade for already developed starters?

august fagerstrom: It’s a reasonable idea, but it’s not like those already developed starters will be somehow immune to the litany of Coors Field effects

august fagerstrom: National Anthem break

Erik: Is there merit to the idea that having pitchers be comfortable with the defensive alignment behind them outweighs or at least partially offsets the benefit of shifting? If I’m afraid to pitch to certain spots due to that discomfort, isn’t that potentially a big problem?

august fagerstrom: Not sure it would outweigh it, but I think it’s a real thing worth considering in certain cases

august fagerstrom: Believe the Dodgers have/do consider this with Kershaw in fact? Could be mistaken about that.

Art Vandelay: Speaking of Russell Carleton, are you a believer in the Times-through-the-order penalty, or do you agree that it probably just has more to do with pitch count?

august fagerstrom: Well, pitch count/fatigue obviously has something to do with it, I don’t think anyone argues that it doesn’t. But it also has a lot to do with seeing the pitcher multiple times

Not really Dave Lang: What are the best baseball podcasts

august fagerstrom: I listen to the FG one and Effectively Wild. Mike Petriello does some cool stuff on the Statcast podcast, especially when he talks to players, and Jonah Keri’s podcast is always great, though his new one with Nerdist isn’t quite baseball-specific

august fagerstrom: Though still great

Chad: Gavin Floyd gonna get any starts this year or will they go Hutchison if an injury happens or when Sanchez is out of innings?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think Hutchison is probably the first guy, and Chavez might be ahead of Floyd. I’d still probably take the over on 0.5 starts from Floyd though

Not really Dave Lang: Why does Kevin Kiermaier lead off

august fagerstrom: .325 OBP with speed vs. RHP isn’t terrible for a leadoff guy, and there’s probably some value in making/keeping a star happy

august fagerstrom: He has no business leading off vs. LHP, but I don’t think he does, correct?

Cube Jockey: Most likely Cards pitcher to pick up a Cy Young vote is…?

august fagerstrom: Carlos Martinez

Harold Reynolds: mumble mumble mumble

august fagerstrom: Good point, Harold

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting, everyone

august fagerstrom: Time for baseball

august fagerstrom: Until next week!