August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 5/17/16

august fagerstrom: Just a heads up: probably gonna be a few minutes late

august fagerstrom: OK, everyone’s heads are now *up*

august fagerstrom: OK, I’m here!

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

august fagerstrom: Bork is the official mascot of the August Fagerstrom Tuesday Chat

Zorak: Should we be more worried about deGrom or Harvey? Or will both work it out as the season progresses?

august fagerstrom: deGrom’s velocity, coupled with his strikeout rate and public comments, certainly don’t paint a rosy picture. That being said, he still doesn’t walk anyone, and he’s got good enough offspeed stuff to continue getting whiffs and grounders, so it’s not like he’s about to be a disaster

august fagerstrom: Based on the swinging strike rate, the strikeouts should come up, too

august fagerstrom: The worry for a guy like deGrom is simply “maybe not a top-10 pitcher in baseball but still really good” which is fine, since this is the same team that has Noah Syndergaard

august fagerstrom: Harvey is a little more confusing, but I’m less concerned about him than deGrom. With deGrom, there’s the obvious velocity drop to point to, and the obvious public comments. Harvey just seems a little off. He’s still mostly got his stuff, it’s just been a bit worse

august fagerstrom: Doesn’t seem like he’s too far removed from being himself

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Odor: 80 punch tool?

august fagerstrom: Relative to other baseball players, who are mostly terrible at fighting, maybe

mtsw: Berrios got shelled last night and didn’t make it out of the first inning. Just a bad night or a sign he got pushed up too early?

august fagerstrom: He was/is ready to pitch in the bigs

Ronnie: Can you tell which line is Koufax 61-66 & which is Kershaw career?

A: 1,673 IP | 9.81 K/9 | 2.53 BB/9 | 0.54 HR/9 | 63 ERA- | 66 FIP-

B: 1,632 IP | 9.44 K/9 | 2.27 BB/9 | 0.64 HR/9 | 63 ERA- | 68 FIP-

august fagerstrom: No, no I cannot

Nate: Can Fredi Gonzalez be too shocked he was going to get fired? This was something that was pretty much guaranteed to happen since January, was it not?

august fagerstrom: He was the most likely manager to be in-season fired before the season began, yah

BeckyWitGudHair: Teheran and vizcaino for carson fulmer, Tyler danish, Jordan guerrero and micker adolfo. Who says no?

august fagerstrom: The Braves because Micker Adolfo is clearly not a real person and therefore has no trade value

Neal Huntington: What do the Pirates do with Jon Niese once the Super 2 deadline passes? They’re paying him a lot to suck, plus they traded Walker to get him.

august fagerstrom: I’d say Locke’s the first one out. Niese’s peripherals aside from his HR/FB% aren’t far off

august fagerstrom: and he’s just better than Locke anyway

Pie: Thoughts on Richards with respect to his ability to come back at full strength this year?

august fagerstrom: Not liking his chances

Neal Huntington: Can Nomar Mazara keep up this level of production throughout the whole season or is he due for significant regression.

august fagerstrom: He can keep up a 109 wRC+ for the rest of the season, yes

august fagerstrom: He could be quite a bit better than that, too. Or worse!

Dickie Thon: There’s a couple glaring holes in the Royals’ rotation right now. I know that Duffy/Flynn game on Sunday was just a bullpen day but do you think they might give some thought to moving Duffy back into the rotation? His numbers are really good albeit in short spurts of relief work.

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure I buy Duffy as a starter. The durability and platoon splits make me think he’s the kind of guy who can be a real weapon out of the pen and a liability in the rotation. The real problem is that I’m not sure the Royals have any better alternatives

Well-Beered Englishman: How long does Bartolo have to keep being Bartolo before he’s a Hall of Fame candidate?

august fagerstrom: Longer than what’s possible

JayDun: Carlos Rodon a few days ago: “I’ve never been a guy that’s been super command, I’ve been a guy that has overpowered people. And I think I just need to stick to that. So what if I walk someone? So what if I walk four or five? I’m still going to go six innings, still going to give you a quality start. That’s the way I’ve got to think. I’ve just got to be that bulldog that says ‘Screw it, I’m going to come at you with everything I’ve got. Mano-y-mano, let’s see if you can hit it.’ And most of the time they don’t.”

august fagerstrom: This is pretty much how Trevor Bauer thinks too

Zorak: Is Wilmer Flores, aside from being last year’s cult hero, just not a good baseball player? Career .285 OBP with middling defense, I think the Mets will want to upgrade their utility players at the deadline.

august fagerstrom: He’s a fine bench piece

august fagerstrom: He’s probably not a starter on a contender, and certainly not at shortstop

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is anyone who fancied themselves a contender before the season at the point where the only logical course of action is to blow it up and rebuild? Seems like the Angels are dangerously close to that point.

august fagerstrom: Problem with the Angels is that a rebuild is literally starting with nothing, and there’s not much to rebuild with

august fagerstrom: Hence all the Trout talks we heard a couple weeks ago

august fagerstrom: Next-closest team to needing to cash in on veterans is probably the Yankees, with Chapman and Gardner being the most obvious candidates

Trainman: Hey August, I’m getting married this Friday and then going on a honeymoon so I won’t be back until the early part of June. When I get back from the honeymoon, who will be the division leaders, and what will be the biggest newsworthy thing that happens in baseball? Thanks August!

august fagerstrom: Division leaders will be Boston, Chicago, Texas, Washington, Chicago and the Dodgers, and Yu Darvish will be back! Congrats on becoming a married person!

Jason: When looking at the projections for a team’s ROS record, how are a team’s minor leaguers taken into consideration? Are they used in these projections?

august fagerstrom: If they’re on the 40-man, then yeah. You can see the inputs for every team’s RoS projections by going to our depth charts: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

2-D: What did you think of that 30 for 30?

august fagerstrom: Cleveland one? Didn’t watch it

Sirras: We’ve said nice things about the Reds’ bullpen. Can you find nice things to say about the Atlanta baseball team’s anything?

august fagerstrom: Arodys Vizcaino is really good!

Bork: How is your Cleveland Lebrons going to do against the Toronto Trashbros?

august fagerstrom: win the hoop points, hopefully

Trainman: Cervelli just signed a 3 year deal extension with Pittsburgh, 31 mil over 3 years. Thoughts? Seems fair for both teams, although Cervelli’s ISO is way down early on.

august fagerstrom: Offense doesn’t have to be great for baseball’s best (?) pitch framer to be worth some dollars

LISTEN TO KAYTRANADA: Is it possible Votto is just in IDGAF mode? I know you’re not supposed to assume professional athletes are capable of that but he doesn’t even look like Joey Votto anymore.

august fagerstrom: 135 wRC+ in y

august fagerstrom: May*

Pop! Pop!: Could we get Pop up % on the fangraphs leaderboard?

august fagerstrom: IFFB% is similar

Roughned Odor: How long am I going to be suspended?

august fagerstrom: Heyman recently mentioned 8 games, which seems light

Nick in CLE: Holy Cody Anderson. Even with the Indians’ jam-packed schedule over the next several days, surely we can expect Francona has to send him down and bring up a replacement, right?

august fagerstrom: Cody Anderson didn’t look like a major league pitcher last year (ERA aside) and he hasn’t looked like a major league pitcher this year. I doubt he remains on the major league roster much longer

Questioner: How come no one ever knows the exact date a player in AAA meets the team control requirement? You always hear ‘Player X won’t be called up until later this year so the team can retain a year of control’, but no one ever knows when that date is. Does it differ by player? How is it calculated? Thanks!

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/

Chuncey Wiggins: Would you like to say a few words for the dearly departed Fredi Gonzalez?

august fagerstrom: later dude

Dougy : What would the NYY need to add to Chapman to pry DeLeon away from LAD?

august fagerstrom: The Yankees got him for Caleb Cotham and Rookie Davis

august fagerstrom: Jose De Leon is a top 25 prospect in baseball

august fagerstrom: I think that answers the question

A. Reitz: A lot of people have been down on Avisail Garcia. But if you consider the spring and last month, he’s been…not terrible. ROS prediction for him?

august fagerstrom: FWIW, my RoS projection for guys almost never differs much from the RoS projections we host here on the site. It would need to be an exceptional circumstance for me to think the projections are that far off

august fagerstrom: so, like, league-average hitter, with almost no value anywhere else

We The People: respectfully request an article about how awesome Jose Altuve is.

august fagerstrom: Eno wrote about his power stroke a few weeks back: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-altuve-power-hitter/

august fagerstrom: also Mike Petriello recently wrote a really good thing about him: http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/178446982/jose-altuve-tapping-into-power-potential

Questioner: Article idea ‘The Recent All Bust Team’, Beckham, Ackley, etc…

august fagerstrom: It’s a real bummer writing negative articles. That’s why I tried to find nice things to say about the Reds bullpen today (while also hopefully making it clear that no one in there is a part of the future)

J!mbo: Prince Fielder: how much of a rebound can be expected? Everyone’s saying he looks like burnt toast, but the stats don’t look *that* bad under the hood.

august fagerstrom: He’s had below league average power since coming to Texas, and it’s completely gone this year. He’s got a huge shift problem, and no longer has an elite walk rate. He might not be more than a league average hitter at this point, which for a slow DH, is almost worthless

august fagerstrom: He’s not far from Billy Butler territory, as crazy as it is to think

Bork: OFFICIAL MASCOT? And I’m slacking off at work so I’m technically being paid for it. WIN WIN

august fagerstrom: congrats

Tyler: Could Ordor be charged with assault for that punch?

august fagerstrom: I always wonder about this. If that happened outside a bar in front of cops he would be. There are cops on the field. There’s probably some legal distinction I’m missing here, but I don’t know why he couldn’t/shouldn’t be

Bobby Miloski: Which MLB player would have the most success playing basketball?

august fagerstrom: Chris Young had NBA talent, if I’m not mistaken. Probably too old to do much now, though

Yazara: Is Nomar Mazara a lock for the AL ROY?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure he’s even the favorite. Byung-ho Park has been better

wait-this-isnt-jeff-sullivan: The Mariner’s bullpen was amazing. Then it collapsed in the last few days. We can assume that their true talent level is somewhere in the middle, but with Furbush, Zych, and Benoit coming back soon-ish, could we have a pretty good M’s bullpen by the all-star break?

august fagerstrom: I don’t see why not

LISTEN TO KAYTRANADA: I’m a Twins fan, but I think Francisco Lindor is my new favorite player. Tell me something I don’t know about him.

august fagerstrom: He wanted to be a dentist if not for baseball

Pole: What were deGrom’s obvious comments? Maybe not so obvious lol

august fagerstrom: “I’m still not feeling very comfortable on the mound”

august fagerstrom: http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/118560/jacob-degrom-im-still-not-feeling-very-comfortable-on-the-mound

LISTEN TO KAYTRANADA: you listen to Coloring Book yet?

august fagerstrom: Yeah. Meh.

LISTEN TO KAYTRANADA: FYI Berrios got sent down this morning

august fagerstrom: well how about that! doesn’t change my opinion that he’s ready. Hope this doesn’t become another Buxton thing

Dougy : Greater number: Braves wins or Cubs losses?

august fagerstrom: This is a fantastic question

august fagerstrom: Projections say 103 losses for Braves, 101 wins for Cubs

august fagerstrom: I kinda think the Cubs win more than 101

august fagerstrom: but I also kinda think the Braves lose more than 103………

august fagerstrom: Gonna say Braves wind up with like 108 and the Cubs 107?

august fagerstrom: God those numbers are so big

august fagerstrom: And somehow don’t seem crazy at all

Hungry: What would Ian Desmond have to do to make the Hall of Fame?

august fagerstrom: be not Ian Desmond

Biscuit: Hey August what are the chances Mike Foltynewicz can outperform Corey Kluber over the next 3 seasons combined?

august fagerstrom: so low

Trainman: Looking at Jhoulys Chacin… is this a shrewd move by the Angels? His metrics look pretty solid. Is it shocking to say be may be their second best pitcher right now besides Santiago?

august fagerstrom: says a lot more about the Angels than Jhoulys Chacin

Bobby: Julio Terehan is over-rated. He is not an ace. Why do people think he will get ace-value in trades? Just because he’s the best pitcher on a lousy team, doesn’t mean he’ll get ace value in trades.

august fagerstrom: Reasonable people don’t think Julio Teheran is an ace

august fagerstrom: or maybe even a #2

august fagerstrom: he’s a solid, young, still relatively cheap pitcher

Tom Traubert: You’d think being his free agent walk year that Aybar would, I don’t know, at least try to be good? The guy looks like he’s never played baseball before.

august fagerstrom: i bet he is trying

viet conigliaro: is mookie betts still better than jackie bradley jr.?

august fagerstrom: yes

The Average Sports Fan: I thought watching the Reds Bullpen was depressing. Reading about the Reds bullpen is just as depressing. Is there any hope?

august fagerstrom: no

august fagerstrom: how’s that for depressing?

Jim: Would Arizona trade pollock goldsmith and archie for trout

august fagerstrom: if they can get Trout and keep Goldschmidt, absolutely

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Hee Seop Choi, Brian Bannister, Rickie Ledee, Bobby Jenks, Mark Bellhorn

august fagerstrom: totally OK with making this a recurring feature of my chat

august fagerstrom: old-but-still-somewhat-recent baseball names are some of the best nostalgias

Neal Huntington: Is Matt Joyce good enough to be a starter? Or is he better off the bench so as to not be over exposed?

august fagerstrom: he’s a platoon player

David: Trout for Pederson, Hernandez, De Leon, Holmes and Verdugo. Who says no?

august fagerstrom: The Angels

cdmcmahon: Clevinger was supposedly just scratched so he possibly on the way up for Anderson’s spot?

august fagerstrom: Saw that. Wouldn’t surprise me. Clevinger is the better pitcher

Fielders : Doesn’t Gattis being the part time DH lead to less at bats?

august fagerstrom: not sure what this is referring to but Gattis is apparently ready to catch again

Matt: Your answer on Chapman was unfair and out-of-context. They got him for nothing because he was “potentially a criminal, almost certaily to-be-suspended and we have no idea for how long” Aroldis Chapman. At the deadline, he’s the same Aroldis Chapman that would have been available last year, except without the full year of control. At very minimum, I’d say the Giles trade is a closer comp, to a Chapman trade, not the Chapman trade.

august fagerstrom: This is a fair point. My bad. He’s still a closer on the last year of his deal with character concerns. You’re not getting a top-25 prospect for him.

Matt: Re Odor getting charges against him, wouldn’t Bautista have to press charges to incite? There’s probably something in the MLBPA about physical confrontations and a player’s right to press charges.

august fagerstrom: yeah this

fivetoolmike: Tell the truth: you just made up Layne Somsen so your Reds bullpen article would have a funny ending, right?

august fagerstrom: saw him pitch in real life yesterday! actual person!

E: RE: Guys who played in the MLB – fresh list next week

august fagerstrom: yesssss

august fagerstrom: can’t wait

august fagerstrom: OK, that’s all for this week. Stay tuned next week for another list of guys who once played in the MLB from E

august fagerstrom: thanks for chatting everyone

august fagerstrom: peace