August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 5/3/16

august fagerstrom: let’s do a chat!

august fagerstrom: I wanted this week’s chat soundtrack to be the new Drake record, but unfortunately it’s horribly boring, so instead watch the new Radiohead video and then listen to a bunch of other Radiohead while you’re at it

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

Shawn: Outside of a few bad pitches, Matt Moore has looked great so far this year. Think this is the year he finally puts it all together?

august fagerstrom: I’ve never been a big Moore believer, but I touched upon him a bit in the Rays post I wrote last week. Everything he’s doing — velocity, movement, command — either looks exactly like rookie season Moore, or better

august fagerstrom: I think this is the first time we’ve seen him healthy in 3 years. His command’s sharper than it’s ever been. I’ll go ahead and puta “buy” label on him

Cory: What can the Tigers do to fix their rotation? It has two good starters and then nothing else. Fulmer looks like he’s definitely good enough to stick. Should they try to make an early trade?

august fagerstrom: The weird thing is, the rotation looks exactly like what it should’ve been expected to look like. Zimmermann’s been a bit better than expected, Verlander a bit worse, but Pelfrey is terrible, Sanchez hasn’t looked right for 2 years and they’ve got no depth

august fagerstrom: I suppose they could make a trade, but I also don’t think the viewpoint on their rotation has changed much from the preseason, and they were apparently fine with it preseason

Dan: Is Victor Martinez officially back? Guy is raking.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, he was pretty clearly playing through injury last year. Amazing what guys can do when they’re not compensating for an injury

j6takish: Is Sandovals injury real?

august fagerstrom: Yeah. I thought it was fake when they 15’d him. You don’t fake a surgery

Erik: I think you mentioned liking Radiohead before. Heard the new song yet? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI2oS2hoL0k

august fagerstrom: Beat you to it!

august fagerstrom: Well actually you posted this before I did, but I hadn’t seen it yet!

august fagerstrom: Like it! Like the video! Love Radiohead!

Mike: how much crap can the braves throw at the wall until something sticks? There has to be another halfway decent major leaguer in the system somewhere, right?

august fagerstrom: a lot.

august fagerstrom: a lot of crap.

Total Clown: Stroman has previously looked like he was trying to induce lots of groundouts. This past start, it seemed to me like he was actively trying to K people. Is it plausible that actively decided to try to get Ks again, like some sort of philosophical change of approach?

august fagerstrom: That is certainly something a person can do, yes

august fagerstrom: Whether or not *this* individual person is doing it, I’m not qualified to say, having not seen either of the starts in question

Jimmy Sak: Latos can’t possibly keep this up? Right? He’s gotta be a sell high guy because I just sold him for Carpenter.

august fagerstrom: He can’t keep *this* up, no, but Latos has never really been a bad pitcher. He’s just been hurt. He’s always gotten the job done when he can take the mound. Wrote about him in the offseason as someone who I thought could be a steal if he just stayed healthy

august fagerstrom: The strikeouts are a bit worrisome. He’s putting too many balls in play. But I’ve been a Latos believer, and a sub-2 ERA through *five whole starts* to begin the year’s not gonna change that stance, I don’t think

Sam: What the heck is going on with Russell Martin at the plate? I don’t see him striking out 40+% of the time that much longer, but is there reason to believe significant offensive regression is coming this season?

august fagerstrom: He’s seeing a bunch more pitches in the zone this year. That’s never a good sign

Danny Almonte: Chris Carter showing any real signs of a new approach, or is he just getting lucky? ROS expectation?

august fagerstrom: He’s doing the same thing all the Brewers hitters are under this new regime: swinging way, way less

august fagerstrom: Tough to say whether that’s a positive change for him in the long haul, but it’s something different, at least

Earl: Yan Gomes still a good hitting catcher? As far as his bat goes, amongst catchers, where would you rank him? top 10, top 5?

august fagerstrom: I haven’t been sold that he’s even the best catcher on the team for more than a year, now, but now the guy who I think is better has a fractured thumb.

august fagerstrom: Last year’s struggles were easier to write off, due to the injury

august fagerstrom: This year is a bit more frightening, though it’s obviously still early. The approach is just terrible though. Seems like the kind of thing that could be exploited. He needs to adjust back

Erik: Despite the hot start, the Phillies’ playoff odds are still 0.1%. Even if you don’t think they’re nearly as good as their record shows, that seems quite low. Does that demonstrate better how much humans overreact to small samples, or how computers are slow to react to new data?

august fagerstrom: little bit of both!

august fagerstrom: whenever you start to get excited about the Phillies maybe being a real team in 2015, take another gander at the lineup

Oliver: Tell me good things about Domingo Santana

august fagerstrom: He hits the ball so god damn hard

Night Man: Has michael conforto’s play so far this season change how you view him going forward? What kind of player is michael for 2016 and beyond? Thanks August

august fagerstrom: Yeah, definitely. He’s been one of the more encouraging stories this season. Seems like a guy who might just be better than he was originally given credit for

august fagerstrom: Could be a 130 wRC+ guy moving forward.

Jackbob: Is August Fagerstrom your real name? Sounds like a great literary protagonist

august fagerstrom: It is very much my real name

Jake : Quintana will be a top 3 pitcher in the American League by the end of the year. How unrealistic is that statement?

august fagerstrom: A bit but he’s really really good and I plan on writing about him very soon, I think

Jason: Carlos Correa’s 2016 has been an interesting one so far. He’s increased his BB% by 6.5 points, and his wRC+ is 131 (compared to 133 in 2015). His K% is also up by more than 4%, his ISO is down almost 80 points, he hasn’t hit a HR since the 2nd game of the season, and he’s swinging at fewer pitches this year, even though he’s seeing more strikes. Anything to be concerned about here, or is this just a combination of a young hitter learning to make adjustments and small sample size?

august fagerstrom: The most concerning thing is the defense, I think

Conrad: With no real place for Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar on the current Rangers roster given their talent levels, would a trade at the deadline at the latest make sense? Healthy Tyson Ross for one or both of Profar and Gallo?

august fagerstrom: I do not think I’d want my team trading for Tyson Ross right now

august fagerstrom: But, yeah, the Rangers might be the most obvious fit for a team with an excess of bats and a need for pitching. I’d be shocked if they don’t make a significant trade for an arm at some point this year

The Dude of NY: Anthony Rizzzo has an ISO of .345 but a BABIP of .188. How do you explain those numbers? HOW?

august fagerstrom: He hits a lot of fly balls, and home runs aren’t included in BABIP, and that’s damn near half his hits

Bill: Eickhoff or Nola?

august fagerstrom: Nola for floor, Eickhoff for ceiling? Or maybe just Nola for both.

Trainman: Byung Ho Park: getting more impressed everyday with him. Still too small of a sample size or do we say this guy is the real deal?

august fagerstrom: Well the power is very real

august fagerstrom: That was never in question

august fagerstrom: It was the contact that was the question. And the contact is still extremely low, about as low as a successful hitter’s contact rate can possibly be, but you can make a 69% contact rate work with his kind of power

august fagerstrom: Would still like to see that come up a bit, though, and it certainly can’t go down much further

Dr Johnny Fever: Any thoughts on Iwakuma’s not-so-great start to the season?

august fagerstrom: Certainly can’t ignore the fact that he failed a physical in the offseason.

Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: Hey August. Who do you see as more likely to return to their career norms, Martin or Tulowitzki?

august fagerstrom: I’m not real high on either. Scary thing about Tulo is the decline started last year

Brett Lawrie’s Empty Redbull Can: What is wrong with Jason Heyward?

august fagerstrom: He hasn’t hit many hits or homers

CecilFielder: JBJ -1.3 Def this year. Is this just a little wonky or has he looked worse this year?

august fagerstrom: I haven’t seen enough of him to say for sure, but it’s almost always the safe bet to just assume “a little wonky”

Up the Foxes: Run far, run fast from Keuchel?

august fagerstrom: I think Dave made a good point when he wrote about him a couple weeks back, that he was already pitching at the point where he couldn’t afford to lose any more velocity, and he lost velocity

august fagerstrom: It’s like an exponential drop when you’re below 90 mph for each mph lost

august fagerstrom: That’s not a great sign

Erik: Does the Phillies hot start accelerate the timelines for promotions for Nick Williams and JP Crawford? Both are off to good starts in the minors, and the Phillies are weak at corner outfield and shortstop. Any chance we see one or both in a few weeks, rather than a few months?

august fagerstrom: I doubt it. I think the Phillies probably understand that they’re still not a legitimate contender this year

Arnie: What happens to Mazara once Choo gets activated. He is playing too well to be sent back down to the minors.

august fagerstrom: Wrote about this whole thing yesterday

Up the Foxes: I can’t believe Freddie Free wants to be part of that rebuild regardless of the new stadium. The ATL farm system isn’t too well stocked. Do you see him being exiled from Bravo Island by the years’ end?

august fagerstrom: The ATL farm system is pretty well stocked

Eldridge Cleaver: Guess on when Trea Turner gets called up? Is there a way to formulate an expectation on this assuming service time were the only consideration?

august fagerstrom: It’s gotta be soon. He is crushing the minors, and Espinosa is Espinos’ing

august fagerstrom: I think this is pretty clearly a service time thing, but I also think it’s one of the more obvious scenarios where a team needs to just bite the bullet and promote the guy that will help them win more ballgames

Kim: On the Mariners team page, Adam Lind has been worth -0.6 WAR. When I look at overall players sorted worst –> best, he’s nowhere to be found. What am I doing wrong? Also, what the heck is he doing wrong?

august fagerstrom: He probably doesn’t have enough playing time to qualify for the overall leaderboards, is what’s happening

august fagerstrom: Just alter the min. PA threshold

Eric: Polanco is breaking out! But where have the steals gone?

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t worry about the steals when he’s hitting the way he is

August’s real father : It’s amazing that the Astros are essentially cooked already. At first it was a pitching problem, but now they can’t hit either. When do they become desperate enough to bring up Reed?

august fagerstrom: I think Reed was going to come up when he was going to come up anyway

august fagerstrom: Not sure how much this will have accelerated their timetable

MattInMinny: Given that Buxton has had two relatively lengthy shots at the big league level and has looked atrocious in both (like Bartolo Colon bad), shouldn’t the Twins be giving Max Kepler the next extended shot to replace the also-awful Danny Santana in CF?

august fagerstrom: Maybe, but it’s way too soon to give up on Buxton just yet

Cody: Views or TLOP?

august fagerstrom: TLOP x1000000

TY: top 5 Radiohead albums

august fagerstrom: Kid A > OKC > Rainbows > TKOL Basement session > Thief

August’s real father : The Yankees are without question the worst team in the AL

august fagerstrom: you heard it here first, from my real father!

Mike T.: any luck finding a new favorite sandwich joint?

august fagerstrom: I’ve got a couple prospects.

august fagerstrom: I quite enjoyed a place called Al’s Deli the other day.

Vic: Naquin seems to be emerging as a regular for the Indians. While he doesn’t profile as a star, does he seem likely to be able to hold the job in CF. especially given the lack of other CF options.

august fagerstrom: To be honest, I haven’t been impressed. He has 16 striekouts, one walk, and a .500 BABIP

august fagerstrom: His swing/approach just doesn’t look like a major league swing/approach. I can’t see this lasting for much longer

gcarter: No team has had 700 walks since Giants had Bonds. Think the Cubs get there this year?

august fagerstrom: They’re on pace for 871 right now, and I think they’re walking at something close to their true-talent level, so yeah, totally doable

Matt: With Albies, Swanson, and Ruiz coming up at the end of the year, and Inciarte returning next week, are the Braves really going to be this bad for very long? That’s four major upgrades.

august fagerstrom: How certain are we that those 3 guys are all being promoted this season?

august fagerstrom: I, for one, am not

Erik: The Cubs’ run differential is double anyone else’s. Is there anything that can stop them winning the World Series other than luck or injuries?

august fagerstrom: yeah, baseball

Bork: Is Arenado a product of Coors or just THAT good?

august fagerstrom: both

MP: Is there anything positive about Lorenzo Cain’s struggles this year at the plate? Does he turn it around? Thanks

august fagerstrom: Wrote about this last week

Bork: Why did the Red Sox not insure Sandovals contract?

august fagerstrom: I have no idea. To be honest, I’ve never even thought about this concept before

jaypo: If the Angels were to break the bank and spend big for Harper, but every other area stayed exactly the same… What would their record look like?

august fagerstrom: Like, 7 wins better than their true-talent level right now?

TKDC: Is it now safe to comfortably go back to the boring assumption that Trout is the best player baseball?

august fagerstrom: There’s not a right or wrong answer between Trout and Harper

august fagerstrom: That said, I still learn toward Trout

Slide’nURdms: How about my boy Ricky Nolasco? Two weeks ago you we’re all like “don’t do this to yourself brah.” And I was like “damn, I thought I’d found a serviceable arm, brah.” But now he’s a month in and 35th in xFIP, 26th in SIERA, and 21st in K-BB% brah. What say you now?

august fagerstrom: I say seriously, don’t do this to yourself, brah

august fagerstrom: Look at his career xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%, and then look at his career in actually preventing runs

august fagerstrom: He might be the single biggest xFIP outlier in baseball

august fagerstrom: His ERA is worse than league average now, and there’s 0 reason to expect it to get better

Nick: How fast do you think syndergaard would throw if he came on in relief?

august fagerstrom: This is actually a really interesting question, because I’m not convinced it would actually be *that* much harder. I think he’s just going out and operating at like 90% intent, when most starters operate at like 70% intent

august fagerstrom: He might pick up another tick, but I’m not sure how much higher he could really go

Reginald Denton III: Wow, the chat interface looks different today. Another upgrade?

august fagerstrom: Seems like it. This interface is much more clean. I’m a fan.

Socks: You said you spent close to two hours watching clips of Jose Iglesias for your article this morning. Where do you find these clips? Enduring endlessly repeating ads on mlb.com would drive me crazy

august fagerstrom: I mostly use the Inside Edge spray charts to find the made/missed plays, then track them down with MLB.tv

august fagerstrom: It gives you inning and batter, so they’re pretty easy to find once you locate the game

Larry: August, in your last chat you said that Barry Bonds was the greatest player ever. Are you kidding me? From the Hall of Stats page on Babe Ruth:

august fagerstrom: I’m not kidding you.

august fagerstrom: I think the answer to this question is dependent more on what the actual question is. No one dominated the game quite like Ruth, for sure. I have 0 doubts Barry Bonds was a far more talented baseball player than Ruth in a vacuum, though

august fagerstrom: The latter is the question I was answering. I think you’re more interested in the former.

Chris: Better ROS: Matt Harvey or Danny Salazar?

august fagerstrom: Harve

august fagerstrom: Harvey was better to begin with, and Salazar hasn’t looked good all season

august fagerstrom: No idea how his ERA is what it is. His command has been atrocious dating back to the spring

H. Rowengartner: Sorry if this was asked already (I’m working for the man today), but do you think Machado will get enough reps to gain SS eligibility?

august fagerstrom: Yes

Scott: I’m glad, for your sake and the sake of your readership, that you weren’t actually fired.

august fagerstrom: me too!

Scott: Is Adrian Beltre a HOFer?

august fagerstrom: Yes

august fagerstrom: I hope I get to vote for him. I don’t think he’ll need my help, though

John: Cubs your #1 team so far?? What can slow them down?

august fagerstrom: They are easily the best team in baseball

Cory: You ever listen to Death Grips?

august fagerstrom: A bunch. Pretty excited for their new record, though I haven’t been huge on the last couple since NLDW

august fagerstrom: sorry, since Government Plates

august fagerstrom: I think actually Government Plates was last week’s chat soundtrack, in fact

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

august fagerstrom: every week

Andrew: JD Martinez changes his approach and becomes an all-star; Velasquez and Appel seem to be reaching their potential; Domingo Santana and Jon Villar start to show promise; ken Giles arrives and is a gas can…at what point do we suspect that the Astros are doing something wrong with player development?

august fagerstrom: no credit for McHugh, McCullers, Keuchel, Altuve, Springer, etc?

JD: Do you put any stock in the theory that if Lucroy were to get traded he’d suffer at the plate because the acquiring team would want him to focus on handling the staff first and hitting second?

august fagerstrom: I put more stock into the theory that whichever team trades for him won’t get full Lucroy value right off the bat because the pitching staff would be unfamiliar with him

jaypo: Gomez failed a physical and has been TERRIBLE this year. Iwakuma failed a physical and has been bad. If a player on my team fails a physical, is it all downhill from there? Or am I using confirmation bias on these two examples?

august fagerstrom: No, it’s definitely a very real cause for concern

august fagerstrom: Gomez in particular looks totally broken

Cheesy Garlic Bread: Guys like Chris Young / Estrada have been dubbed fip / peripherals beaters. Are there any pitchers who consistently under perform their fip / peripherals?

august fagerstrom: Ricky Nolasco and Joe Blanton are the first two that come to mind

Snarfle: The thing with the Rangers good problem is that all of those guys except maybe Moreland seem untradeable or too young and good to trade (or in Desmond’s case, just signed).

august fagerstrom: Yep, this is definitely a complicating factor

august fagerstrom: The guy that probably makes the most sense to jettison might actually be Prince, and I’d be shocked if that contract is moved a second time

groucho: Do you believe, as I do, that Aledmys Diaz is the devil incarnate?

august fagerstrom: someone needs to investigate the Cardinals

august fagerstrom: again?

Cheesy Garlic Bread: Look into your crystal ball and tell me who wins the AL Central pennant.

august fagerstrom: still going with my preseason White Sox pick

Johnny Tsunami: What’s for lunch today?

august fagerstrom: good question!

august fagerstrom: I still haven’t eaten it yet, or breakfast, and so I need to go do that now

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting y’all

august fagerstrom: Be back next week