August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 5/10/16

august fagerstrom: chatty chat chat!

august fagerstrom: The soundtrack is the new Radiohead record, A Moon Shaped Pool, which I cannot link, but you can (and should) acquire. It is blissful and flawless

Byron: What’s wrong wi

august fagerstrom: off to a good start!

mtsw: Shouldn’t the Nationals assume (or strongly suspect) that if Boras is willing to do an extension for Strasburg, there must be something wrong with his elbow that they don’t know about?

august fagerstrom: I think this is something worth considering, but at the same time, Strasburg’s looked as good as ever lately, so it would be odd if *now* was the time when Boras felt the need to make that move

august fagerstrom: I’d guess Strasburg just wanted to stay in Washington, and that overruled Boras

Outta my way, Gyorkass: So, JT Realmuto passing Ozuna and being called out and being credited with a single, out at 2nd – when was the last time that happened in the majors prior to this?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure. I’d like to know, but I couldn’t figure out a way to Play Index it last night

rustydude: What’s the prognosis on Carrasco? Does he come back as good as ever? Will there be some rust? Is he the key to the Indians climbing back into it?

august fagerstrom: Well you’d certainly rather have a leg injury than an arm injury for a pitcher, though of course neither is ideal. Really just depends how quickly he can regain his mechanics with one hamstring being weaker than the other

CamdenWarehouse: Does Brad Ausmus make it through the season?

august fagerstrom: Doubtful

jen: I’m starting to lose hope for the Twins even for next season. I guess that’s not a question

august fagerstrom: 🙁

Bryce: If a player is walked at every at-bat, what is offensive WAR?

august fagerstrom: Well his wRC+ would be like 350

august fagerstrom: so

august fagerstrom: pretty high

Dug: Who is the top free agent Pitcher next year now that Strasburg is extended?

august fagerstrom: i literally think it’s Rich Hill

Anonymous Internet Commenter
Remember when “Anonymous Scout” was calling for Matz to get demoted after ONE bad start? Anonymous Internet Commenter thinks Anonymous Scout should be the one who suffers a demotion instead

august fagerstrom: no i do not remember that

august fagerstrom: bad scout, though

Zonk: Fun Fact: 6 teams have won more games this year at Turner Field than the Braves

august fagerstrom: https://twitter.com/obxleatherman/status/729778513675472896

august fagerstrom: I love that tweet so much

Danny: Favorite/Least favorite songs off of A Moon Shaped Pool?

august fagerstrom: Favorites: Decks Dark (OMG), Ful Stop, Identikit, The Numbers, Present Tense

august fagerstrom: Least favorites: None

august fagerstrom: It’s honestly a damn near flawless record. I can’t believe how good it is

rustydude: Now that we’re past April and sample sizes have become just a little bit meatier, why is Fielder still starting every day batting 3rd or 4th in the order? Is the rest of his contract dead money?

august fagerstrom: money/past performance

august fagerstrom: “He’s Prince Fielder,” is why

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Would a 52 year old Big Unit be able to put up a replacement level season out of the bullpen?

august fagerstrom: like literally right now? No

august fagerstrom: He’s been taking pictures since he retired, not pitching

Danny: Is Brandon Belt one of the best hitters in baseball?

august fagerstrom: depends how loose “one of” is

Danny: Kris Medlen can’t find the zone to save his life, why has he been such garbage this season?

august fagerstrom: I mean it’s not like this is the fall of Greg Maddux we’re talking about here

august fagerstrom: It’s Kris Medlen. He was OK, and when you lose a little bit off OK, you get bad

Taveras’ Ghost: Bryce Harper. Bat him lead off. Make them pitch to him. Or they put the lead off man on. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: I think you waste too many runs putting his power at the top of the order

CecilFielder: Is David Ortiz the best hitter we’ve seen at age 40?

august fagerstrom: Well I mean right now, yeah

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,4,6,11,12,13,21,-1,34,35,40,41,-1,23,37,38,50,61,-1,111,-1,203,199,58,3&season=2016&month=0&season1=1920&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=40,58&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

august fagerstrom: He’s got to finish with a 157 wRC+ or better to top Willie Mays

august fagerstrom: His updated Steamer projection has him finishing the year with a 144 wRC+

august fagerstrom: Which would still be the second-best hitter season by a 40-year-old ever

august fagerstrom: And that leaves 157 certainly within reach

Pinstripe Wizard: August, my man, what is the heck is wrong with Bryce Harper? He hasn’t hit a home run in 5 games. Of course, that’s only 6 ABs.

august fagerstrom: #trash

Zonk: Kris Bryant stated that he wanted to level his swing plane this year, in order to cut the Ks. His contact numbers have improved across the board significantly, resulting in a 13% lower K-Rate so far. Is this adjustment for real? Can you think of another player who did this?

august fagerstrom: I mean, players are making swing adjustments constantly. It’s pretty neat that Kris Bryant talked about is so openly using terms like “launch angle.” Might have to write about that, in fact

rick taylor: RICK. TAYLOR.

august fagerstrom: Rick Taylor, baby

Shane: What are your thoughts on Fernandez? His walk-rate has gone way up even though he’s thrown the ball in the zone more. I think it’s because hitters aren’t swinging at the curveball as much (a quick look reveals that the movement on his curve is way down). Do you think it’s concerning?

august fagerstrom: I’m a bit concerned about the command — he had one of the worst walk rates in the spring, too. I know the Marlins wanted him to change his approach a bit this offseason — pitching to more contact and going less all-out with the fastball

august fagerstrom: Could be he’s still trying to get used to that. Or could be that that’s not the best approach for him

Chris: Odubel Herrera has been a beast. Are you buying his start?

august fagerstrom: I’m buying Odubel Herrera as a useful starter on a good team, which I wasn’t before the season

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

Ken M: First thing you buy with 175 million?

august fagerstrom: A reuben

august fagerstrom: Like a REALLY good reuben

Zonk: Is this the Jacoby Ellsbury we can expect going forward, now and forever?

august fagerstrom: What he’s been for the last five years, you mean?

august fagerstrom: Yeah. We’re not getting 2011 back. Dunno what happened there.

Pinstripe Wizard: Outside of Cespedes, which player’s family BBQ would you most want to attend?

august fagerstrom: Puig’s

august fagerstrom: or Greinke’s

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: I heard you on the Pirate’s Pregame radio show yesterday. Good look, my dude.

august fagerstrom: Thanks man

Jacob: Is Severino worthy of a demotion?

august fagerstrom: No

Nelson: Is it just me or does Kluber seem to give up runs in the first or second innings a little more than most aces.

august fagerstrom: First inning maybe: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=klubeco01&year=Career&t=p#innng

Dancing Dan Mcgrewww: Would you trade Trout for Urias,Peddrson Seager, Puig, De Leon and Barnes?

august fagerstrom: Yes

Q-Ball: The Yankees are old, expensive, and not very good. They have some valuable trade pieces though. Should the Yankees do what they have never done: Blow it up in full re-build mode?

august fagerstrom: Thing about the Yankees is, they never need to go *full* re-build

august fagerstrom: They should never have anything but a top-5 payroll, probably

august fagerstrom: There’s a difference between that and realizing you’re not a contender and maximizing your future assets, though

SB: ROS – who’s production do you think is most sustainable? Happ, Porcello, R. Hill?

august fagerstrom: Rich god damn Hill

Lloyd Moseby: What’s your read on Aaron Sanchez so far? He’s looked like the Jays best pitcher in limited time. Where do you see his ceiling in the rotation?

august fagerstrom: will be writing about this very soon, I think

CamdenWarehouse: Is there a fine or suspension coming Harper’s way?

august fagerstrom: Would guess he gets fined, yeah

Questioner: Strasburg – how surprised are you at this extension, on a scale from “water is wet” to “Trump is the nominee”?

august fagerstrom: an 8

Matt: Is Felix Hernandez transforming into more of a Kris Medlan type of pitcher?

august fagerstrom: My favorite fun fact I’ve found in a while:

august fagerstrom: Before last night’s start, Felix was the only qualified starter in baseball without a whiff on an in-zone fastball all year

august fagerstrom: He literally had a 100% contact rate on in-zone fastballs before last night

august fagerstrom: Not sure if it changed or not

august fagerstrom: but, boy

asabin: Did we get too excited about Noah Syndergaard?

august fagerstrom: I’d call it an appropriate level of excitement

yojiveself: rasmus is now hitting like he is supposed to be hitting (.241). cut for ozuna? unable to trade him (no takers).

august fagerstrom: He was a 132 wRC+. That’s the best offensive season of his career.

Kvn: So we knew Manny Machado vaulted himself among the elite last year, but holy shit! If he’s anywhere close to as good of a SS as he is a 3B he’s got to be the most valuable player in baseball, right?

august fagerstrom: He’s closer to Trout and Harper than most think, probably, yeah

Pinstripe Wizard: Is it time to put Yordano Ventura in the pen? That walk rate is ridiculous.

august fagerstrom: And who do you replace him with? The Royals rotation is hot garbage

old tex: What are the chances bryce harper signs with the nationals long term?

august fagerstrom: Slim

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Are any teams who fashioned themselves contenders at the beginning of the season legitimately screwed? I guess a 13-20 Astros team looks better than a 6-14 Astros team, but they need to pull it together in a hurry, right?

august fagerstrom: The Twins are legitimately screwed

august fagerstrom: The Astros have to pull it together in a hurry, yes, but not screwed et

august fagerstrom: yet*

Pasa: Will MLB have an automated K zone within the next 10 years?

august fagerstrom: I’ll say no

Q-Ball: The Nationals are a good team, but the weekend series vs. Cubs exposed one big problem: Outside of Harper, their hitters don’t scare anybody. Should they make a deal, or hope for internal improvement?

august fagerstrom: They should call up Trea Turner, for starters. And yeah, they could probably serve to add a bat

Bridgeport Joe: Given the White Sox’s current lead in the AL Central and their ability to throw Sale and Quintana four times in a series, Chicago really has to be the AL favorite at this point, right?

august fagerstrom: I’m still partial to the Red Sox

august fagerstrom: But yeah, Chicago’s positioned themselves as well as anyone so far in terms of making it out of the AL

Zonk: Fangraphs has the Indians at 42.6% to win the division. Model may not account for Carrasco being hurt, because that seems high to me. How about you?

august fagerstrom: It does account for that. The projections are based off the playing time estimates provided for our depth charts, which are updated near-daily: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=5

Kvn: Rate on the “cooked” scale: Twins, Yankees, Angels

august fagerstrom: Angels: 30. They took all 10 cooked points from the Twins and Yankees

South Side Crede: White Sox have a 6 game lead already in their division, but Cleveland still has nearly the same division odds. What am I missing? I know it is early, but pitching and defense is there.

august fagerstrom: Projections like the Indians’ crop of position players by ~5 wins: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

Davey: Which SS do you want ROS: Cozart, Marte or Villar?

august fagerstrom: Marte

Not Byron: What’s wrong wi…th the Blue Jays offence? Anything sticking out to you? Are they simply all hitting the aging curve at similar times?

august fagerstrom: Tulo and Russell Martin look like legitimate decline candidates

Some other guy: Alex Wood is showing crazy home/road splits so far this season. Potentially anything to that, or just noise?

august fagerstrom: Noise

Mike: If the Yankees fall out of contention, could you see them trading Beltran and/or Tex?

august fagerstrom: Not gonna get much for either guy

august fagerstrom: phone — one second

august fagerstrom: ok, sorry about that. had to take that call

j6takish: If all the current mlb managers had to suit up and play for a season, who would post the most war? Paul molitor and dusty baker were probably the best players but are also the oldest. Brad ausmus and mike matheny are young but weren’t that great when they were in their prime. Im thinking maybe Robin ventura?

august fagerstrom: depends if you’re using BP WAR which counts pitch framing. if that’s the case I’d probably give it to Ausmus

Pinstripe Wizard: Favorite comedian?

august fagerstrom: Maybe cliche right now but nobody makes me laugh harder and more consistently than Louis CK. Also a fan of Bill Burr, Maron, Hannibal Buress, of course Mitch Hedberg and George Carlin, Chappelle is always great too

august fagerstrom: Doug Stanhope is a goody too that doesn’t get enough love

august fagerstrom: oh and Brian Regan. Brian Regan is the man

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Ben: Rays fan here, what’s up with Evan Longoria? Is he just a guy now? He was incredible when he came up as a rookie and the few years after that but got injuries. Now he’s been healthy for a while and in his prime years and he doesn’t really show much anymore. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I mean, with the bat he’s been “just a guy” for a few years now. Seems he lost the bat speed to punish the inside pitch for whatever reason

august fagerstrom: The glove keeps him valuable, but probably not for much longer

Kvn: Odds that Mark Trumbo has taken a legitimate step forward? Plate discipline is the best of his career right now.

august fagerstrom: Nothing sticks out to me as too much different

Nittanychris : Is Jose Altuve the best all-around player in the game?

august fagerstrom: ?

august fagerstrom: no?

august fagerstrom: is this a trick question

Ricky: If the Yankees are out of it by the trade deadline, chances that they will deal Chapman?

august fagerstrom: Pretty high

Bork: Do you believe in Kevin Pillar?

august fagerstrom: I never know what this question is asking me. How much am I supposed to believe in him?

Erik: A Moon Shaped Pool first made me mad with its alphabetical tracklist, then confused me, but now I think I love it, though I’m still confused. Is that anything other than exactly what you expect and hope for from a Radiohead album?

august fagerstrom: I expect nothing from a new Radiohead record. Except good music. If you go in expecting some certain type of sound, you’re doing it wrong

Anonymous Internet Commenter
The Pittsburgh Pirates are further out of first place than the Houston Astros. How nuts is that?

august fagerstrom: Wow

august fagerstrom: That is pretty nuts

Bork: What’s up with Price? Think he’s legit injured? Or are the Red Sox just destined to have terrible contracts every off season?

august fagerstrom: Think his mechanics are a bit out of wack, particularly from the stretch, which magnifies his issues because he’s been the worst version of himself when runners are on base and more damage can be done

august fagerstrom: Long as he gets that in check, which I suspect he will, he’ll be just fine

E: Remember these guys? Ronnie Belliard, Jeff Conine, Carlos Silva, Shea Hillenbrand, Mark Teahan, Shannon Stewart, Gil Meche. Those guys played baseball

august fagerstrom: Carlos Silva was my favorite player in baseball for a year or so

2-D: Do you think Chisenhall can be an acceptable defensive center fielder?

august fagerstrom: I guess? The whole package isn’t very good though

jerko: Is Chris Young really this bad? I mean his K rate is actually higher as well as his fb velo, but SO MANY DONGERS, August.

august fagerstrom: He’s got like no margin for error

august fagerstrom: Put it this way: he’d be about the least-surprising baseball to suddenly turn into a true-talent 5.00 ERA pitcher

august fagerstrom: pitcher in baseball*

story book ending: am i the best offensive ss in baseball now?

august fagerstrom: no

CamdenWarehouse: How much do the Jays regret the Dickey trade?

august fagerstrom: so hard

CecilFielder: Why don’t you like porcello? he looks great so far this year

august fagerstrom: has less to do with me not liking Porcello and more to do with Rich Hill being the second coming of Koufax

Scuba Steve: Do you see anything mechanical to explain Zack Cozart’s hot start?

august fagerstrom: I haven’t looked, so no

august fagerstrom: You probably shouldn’t get tooooo excited though

OddBall Herrera: Going on the (maybe correct) assumption that pitchers pitch differently with a lead, are you aware of anywhere that one could find pitchers’ splits when winning/losing a game? Or is there another stat out there to approximate it?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, it’s available on BR: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=klubeco01&year=Career&t=p#clutc

august fagerstrom: It’s pretty tough to do anything with, though, because of course if a pitcher’s team is losing, it’s because he’s pitched poorly, and vice-versa

CamdenWarehouse: The most entertaining pitcher in baseball is…

august fagerstrom: last year I said it was Johnny Cueto

august fagerstrom: Jose Fernandez is a lot of fun to watch. Syndergaard. Darvish when he’s healthy

Zorak: knock on wood the starters all stay healthy, do Mets go to a 6 man when Wheeler returns? Or consider Wheeler at AAA past his rehab stint (assuming he still has options)?

august fagerstrom: Colon could just go to the bullpen

Ricky: Thoughts on Stroman? K’s going to come up?

august fagerstrom: He seems real committed to getting ground balls

njs: why greinke’s bbq? dude seems like a stick in the mud to me.

august fagerstrom: he is fascinating

august fagerstrom: and I want to know where he comes from and why he is the way he is

Eric Weinstein: If the Yankees are still in last place at the deadline, do you think the Cubs could pry Chapman loose?

august fagerstrom: sure

august fagerstrom: that sure is a fun thing to consider, too

Reginald Denton III: Have many listens in are you on A Moon Shaped Pool?

august fagerstrom: like 8 or 9

OddBall Herrera: Should the Royals’ performance this season continue as it has been so far, and align pretty well with projections, the perpetually aggrieved “The Royals are super special in an unmeasurable way” crowd should have to fund a party for the Fangraphs staff, complete with fireworks and Pegasus rides.

august fagerstrom: I’m all for a Pegasus party if someone wants to throw it for us

Pasa: What has been the best/most exiting play in baseball so far?

august fagerstrom: I think the most excited I’ve gotten watching baseball this year was when I saw Steven Souza make this catch live: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25569169/watch-rays-steven-souza-makes-an-incredible-diving-catch

august fagerstrom: I think I shouted

Johnny Keeper: Who are the better stashes: Giolito or Snell? Reed or Gallo? Crawford or Arcia?

august fagerstrom: Giolito Reed and Crawford

mtsw: Say (god forbid) Mike Trout gets hurt. Are the Angels then worse than the Braves?

august fagerstrom: You can’t get much *worse* but they’d be in the conversation

CamdenWarehouse: Should the Cubs be giving more at bats to Baez?

august fagerstrom: Taking away from who?

Frank: You’re probably getting lots of AJ Reed questions. Thoughts on his struggles? Currently batting .223.

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t be too concerned

august fagerstrom: Power’s still there. Strikeouts are unchanged. Walks are unchanged. Could be running into batted ball luck or something. Kid can hit.

Houzer : think the Tigers could find a taker on VMart if they decide to sell this year?

august fagerstrom: Well only 14 teams can be interested

august fagerstrom: And of those 14, probably half will be out of contention

august fagerstrom: Makes it tough, especially given what he’s being paid

august fagerstrom: Though he’s doing everything he can to give himself value, certainly

Erik: Does the Strasbourg deal suggest we were wrong about Boras? Or is this an exception?

august fagerstrom: I think it’s an exception

OddBall Herrera: The instant the Twins give up on the season, Plouffe gets traded and the Sano-in-the-outfield experiment mercifully ends, no?

august fagerstrom: Probably yeah

kevinthecomic: Hey Augie! Thanks for chatting. What’s the deal with McHugh? Hidden injury? Forgot how to pitch? Bad luck? Something else?

august fagerstrom: Leaving too many pitches up

august fagerstrom: That, and probably some poor sequencing fortune.

august fagerstrom: But again, this is one of those things where, mid-rotation starters just don’t have much room for error

august fagerstrom: McHugh leaving a few too many pitches up is quite a bit different than Max Scherzer leaving a few too many pitches u

johnisforthegiants: I don’t care what the numbers say, the Cubs suck!

august fagerstrom: fair point

Bartolo Colon: How good/bad would Thor be if he had to throw his fastball at the same rate as I throw mine?

august fagerstrom: Still pretty darn good

PJ: Votto: First 16 games: .172/.258/.241 Last 17 games: .302/.457/.547

august fagerstrom: He’s pretty good

Bork: Do you believe Kevin Pillar can sustain his 5+ WAR/year. SORRY AUGUST.

august fagerstrom: Probably not, no

rustydude: Previous commenter mentioned Gil Meche. Are you aware of any other ball player, under contract, walking away from millions and simply retiring when his skills/ambition were diminished?

august fagerstrom: it literally happened like 2 months ago

Oliver: Why are so many Aces not acing right now?

august fagerstrom: Because they’ve made 6 or 7 starts

Reginald Denton III: This question doesn’t just apply to the new Radiohead album, but that could be considered as part of your answer. Or are you a music guy first, lyrics guy, or a combination? With regards to the new RH album, how much have you delved into the lyrics?

august fagerstrom: I’m definitely a texture/mood guy first

august fagerstrom: I only get into lyrics when I really want to learn more about an artist

august fagerstrom: or the potential meaning behind a song/record, etc

Scuba Steve: Which young SS projects as the better bat? J.P. Crawford or Orlando Arcia?

august fagerstrom: Crawford

BA24: HOLDS LEAGUE GIVENS OR GILES (ROS) ?

BA24: OZUNA OR GRICHUK OBP LEAGUE ?

august fagerstrom: please stop yelling at me

Oliver: Whos the least exciting SP to watch? Locke?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, probably

njs: how does FG update playing time estimates “near daily” for so many players?

august fagerstrom: We have a team of authors who each maintain one division. The playing time estimates are updated when there’s an injury/demotion/promotion/position change/etc

Pat: What is your favorite major and minor league park? What puts them at the top?

august fagerstrom: PNC is probably my favorite major league park at which to watch a game

august fagerstrom: I’ve been to I think 2 minor league parks

Ricky: So…is Rich Hill really, real? I mean…you seem to love him. Is it warranted?

august fagerstrom: It’s partially tongue-in-cheek, but I mean, he’s good

august fagerstrom: I think if everyone in baseball had to make a start tomorrow, and they all pitched to their current true-talent level, Hill would have one of the, like, 30 best games

yojiveself: you say literally a lot. do you know what the word actually means?

august fagerstrom: just checked and all four times I think it’s justified

august fagerstrom: though I did not notice I’d already used the word four times in this chat

august fagerstrom: that is a bit obnoxious I suppose

august fagerstrom: though so was your comment so I guess we’re even

Heimer Schmidt: Why doesn’t Xander Bogaerts get any respect in the best short stop in baseball argument?

august fagerstrom: because I think he’s pretty safely not it

august fagerstrom: Seems pretty clear, to me at least, that there’s a gap between Correa/Lindor and Crawford/Bogaerts

Art Vandelay: I have a hard time watching Joe Ross. He works so slowly. Is there a place to see the pace scores for pitchers this season?

august fagerstrom: Yep, PITCHf/x has this: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=15&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=11,d

august fagerstrom: Ross is about league average

august fagerstrom: You shouldn’t watch an Edinson Volquez start

Danny: Are you regularly moved to tears by music?

august fagerstrom: have cried at my fair share of concerts

august fagerstrom: alright guys, I gotta run. Thanks for chatting

august fagerstrom: same time and place next week

august fagerstrom: peace