August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 6/14/16

august fagerstrom: let’s do a chat!

Justin: Is there a site that has advanced stats for college players?

august fagerstrom: Not sure about advanced stuff, but The Baseball Cube is my go-to site for finding college stuff

einstein2u: I know it sounds crazy, but can Linecum be serviceable? maybe catch lightening in a bottle?

august fagerstrom: He can probably eat innings for a bad team

august fagerstrom: I doubt he’s much more than replacement level at this point though

Andy: plenty has been written of Yelich’s ceiling. What do you think his peak realistically looks like?

august fagerstrom: Something like what he’s doing right now

PL: Which team is furthest from its final position in the standings?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think much moves, tbh. Astros go up, maybe? Orioles down?

Tony: Is Choo’s playing time going to be limited with Rua, Desmond, and Mazara?

august fagerstrom: would guess Rua takes the PT hit before Choo

Erik: Why is it that defensive stats take so long to stabilize? Don’t defenders get approximately the same amount of plays in the field per game as hitter get at the plate?

august fagerstrom: Well no, they don’t. But also because there’s just so many variables that effect the outcome of a defensive play

august fagerstrom: That’s why something like velocity stabilizes so quickly — it’s pretty much up to one thing: how hard the pitcher throws the ball

august fagerstrom: So much can influence a defensive play

august fagerstrom: That brings in more noise

The Decadent Moose: Give us your thoughts on Jerad Eickhoff. The spotlight seems to be on VV and Nola. Eickhoff has quietly thrown some pristine innings.

august fagerstrom: Nasty curveball, surprisingly good command. Solid mid-rotation starter

Andrew: Has the ongoing mega-slump changed your thoughts on Conforto?

august fagerstrom: Certainly doesn’t help

august fagerstrom: The key is to not let the hot streak change your thoughts too much in the first place. It’s easy to let that happen early in a season

mtsw: What is the path to the Orioles have to having a non-terrible starting rotation now that Ubaldo Jimenez looks irretrievably done as a starter?

august fagerstrom: The path is rocky

CamdenWarehouse: First it was Soler not playing well taking away at bats from Baez and now Coghlan comes in. What is it going to take for Baez to get in the lineup everyday? He’s performing decently enough with inconsistent playing time. Why not see if regular at bats can unlock his full potential?

august fagerstrom: Would guess Maddon likes having his versatility off the bench

august fagerstrom: Also not like he’s been amazing or anything. Been a league-average bat who can play a bunch of positions. Sounds like a pretty great bench guy

Brian: There’s probably some regression coming, but what do you think of Whit Merrifield’s chances to be an average or above-average second baseman over the next three years?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think much of it

Lemmiwinks: What do you expect from Zach Eflin’s start today? He has got to be better than Urias, right?

august fagerstrom: He does not have to be better than Urias, no

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

I’m not your buddy, Guyer: Eovaldi is a top 20 starting pitcher by xFIP this season at 3.54. His ERA sits nearly a full run higher at 4.42. With no discernible Home/Road Splits, can we assume that Eo is similar to Nolasco in that with his bad fastball, he’ll always under-perform his peripherals?

august fagerstrom: Can’t say for sure that both stem from poor fastballs (though it’s a reasonable assumption), but yeah, with a third straight year like this, and a career ERA half a run higher than his FIP in 700 innings, it’s safe to say Eovaldi’s earned the reputation as a guy who’s stuff is far more enticing than his results

Curtis: How did the Mariners do in the amateur draft?

august fagerstrom: I have literally no idea

august fagerstrom: Just a heads up to clear the bases — if you wanna talk draft stuff, you’re in the wrong place. Eric Longenhagen should be chatting later this week. He’s your guy for that

august fagerstrom: I know that AJ Puk is a guy who exists and was drafted. And Riley Pint. And I learned about Mickey Moniak when he was the first player drafted. That’s about the extent of my draft knowledge

Bill: Do we see Brantley by the All Star Break?

august fagerstrom: I’d say no

Tim: Do Braves or Twins have better future?

august fagerstrom: Braves

Curtis: Will anything short of a World Series championship be a disappointment for the Cubs?

august fagerstrom: Depends on the fan

august fagerstrom: Or person, I guess

august fagerstrom: I’ve always been of the mindset that anything short of a World Series being a disappointment is an unreasonable expectation

august fagerstrom: But there’s nothing wrong with thinking another way

Mums: Other than the White Sox, are there any other teams who Jay Bruce or possibly Zack Cozart would be linked too or a good fit for?

august fagerstrom: Wrote about this last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-reds-season-has-actually-gone-according-to-plan/

Rob: Last nights comeback win aside, if the White Sox finish with 78-80 wins, do they begin the rebuild and finally sell? They will need to, right??

august fagerstrom: Probably should, yeah

Justin: Are there any indications that the Dodgers’ offense will improve sometime soon, or is this what it is at this point?

august fagerstrom: They’ve been bottom-10. Projections see top-10 rest of season. That’s an indication

Brett: Do you think Matt Kemp tops 30 HRs and 100 RBIs this season?

august fagerstrom: No

Del Unser: What’s your ROS ranking for future studs Paxton, Taijun, and J Gray?

august fagerstrom: I probably like Gray the most and Paxton the least

august fagerstrom: Though Paxton’s new fastball sure is intriguing

Erik: Xander Bogaerts currently tops the WAR leaderboard and is only 23. What are his chances of finishing the year at the top? Does he have a chance of breaking into the Trout/Harper tier? Or is he merely a pretty good player being buoyed by a .408 BABIP?

august fagerstrom: The latter, though I’d go with “really good” instead of “pretty good”

august fagerstrom: He’s an elite shortstop. He’s not the best player in baseball. He’s not Bryce Harper

Britt: What is going on with Yan Gomes? He has become such a black hole on offense that I have seen people on Twitter calling for the Indians to trade for Johnathan Lucroy. What’s scary is that he is not even getting on base. Is the ’15-16 Gomes the real Gomes and the ’13-14 Gomes just a mirage? What can the Indians do?

august fagerstrom: His approach has always been poor, and has seemed exploitable

august fagerstrom: Last year’s injury caused some bad habits that have sapped some of his authority and exacerbated the issue, I’d guess

august fagerstrom: A healthy Roberto Perez is the Indians best catcher

rustydude: Recent FG pieces on Shoemaker and Fulmer seem to indicate that changing pitch selection and frequency can make a big difference on performance. Seems like this could be applied to a lot of pitchers. Is there a failure in coaching here?

august fagerstrom: I’d say it is applied to a lot of pitchers

august fagerstrom: You don’t see it as much with veteran guys because, for the most part, they’ve already found what works

august fagerstrom: But every year there’s plenty of guys in Spring Training working on new pitches/new mixes that get carried over into the season

Erik: Which psychological effect is bigger: hitters trying to adjust their swing when facing a shift, or pitchers being afraid to make certain pitches with a shift behind them?

august fagerstrom: Would guess the former

Bork: Cleveland’s Big Three accounted for 84 points last night!!

august fagerstrom: one way of putting it

Argo: Eno thinks Jake Lamb is now a 30 HR guy after tinkering with his swing all winter, and based on his exit velocities fly ball trajectories. Between what we saw in Spring Training and the regular season, it sure does seem plausible. Are you as bullish on his future as Eno?

august fagerstrom: 30 is higher than I’d go, but I’m probably overly cautious

august fagerstrom: I do like Lamb quite a bit

Nick: Hi August! Do you think Almonte has anything to contribute to the Indians once his suspension for being a cheater is up? The Indians need outfield bodies, but I’m not very optimistic that he will have much of a positive effect on the team.

august fagerstrom: He’s no better than anything they’ve got out there now

Erik: Which team is most likely to make the playoffs this year and then miss the next 5? What about the reverse?

august fagerstrom: If the season ended today, the Orioles would be the team that’s in with the highest chance of missing the next five, IMO. Dodgers would be the out team with the best chance of being in

Kyle: Just saw a fellow Astros fan hope for a Matt Kemp trade. No question just *Face Palm*

august fagerstrom: I feel like every team’s fan base wants Matt Kemp. And every team’s fan base would be terribly misguided in that regard

august fagerstrom: The only reason you should want your team to acquire Matt Kemp is because that means the Padres gave your team a good prospect to take Matt Kemp away from them

Hypothetical Hippo: Hypothetical question: Let’s assume a team is a seller at the deadline and they knowingly have their potential trade candidates using steroids to increase their value. The player gets suspended a few weeks after getting trades. After the player is suspended, he mentions how the club pressured him into using the steroids. Would the team that traded for said player be able to sue, or would they be able to recoup the players they traded away?

august fagerstrom: Pretty sure the trade wouldn’t go through because the player would fail a physical/drug test before it was approved

Dock Ellis: Is George Springer going to run at all on the base paths? IIRC he was a potential 30/30 threat when he was a prospect.

august fagerstrom: He’s been pretty bad at it

august fagerstrom: Until he gets better, no incentive to run

august fagerstrom: 4/10 this year is awful. 25/37 career is below the breakeven point

zack cozart fan: is zack cozart actually quite good?

august fagerstrom: He’s an average starting shortstop, at least

august fagerstrom: His glove keeps his floor quite high

Sleeper Star: Playoff Odds Page Question: Does the ALDS/ALCS/WS (or that stupid senior circuit) column project how likely it is a team makes said part of the playoffs, or how likely it is to win that part… I.E., do the Red Sox have a 12.7% Probability of making the World Series, or 12.7% Probability of Winning the World Series?

august fagerstrom: Win that part

august fagerstrom: It used to tell you when you hovered over the column

august fagerstrom: Not sure why it’s not now

Curtis: What is your least favorite statistic?

august fagerstrom: Quality starts and saves are pretty weird

Tom: You buying this new, smoke throwing James Paxton?

august fagerstrom: I’m definitely buying that baseballs are coming from his left hand at 100 miles per hour

mtsw: Cubs just signed failed Orioles pitcher Brian Matusz to a minor league deal. Former #4 overall pick. How long until the Cubs turn him into the new Jake Arrieta?

august fagerstrom: Today

Steve: Does Aaron Sanchez have more potential than Noah Syndergaard?

august fagerstrom: He does not

august fagerstrom: Unless by “potential” you mean room left to grow? Because Syndergaard’s already amazing? If that’s the case, then sure, but that’d be a weird way to think about things

august fagerstrom: Aaron Sanchez will not be better than what Noah Syndergaard is right now

natsfan: Hello August! Do you expect Max Kepler to play regularly and contribute for Minny over the rest of this season?

august fagerstrom: I don’t see why not. He certainly seems like one of the best 25 players in the organization, and I’m not sure what else he’s got to prove in the minors

Allan G: Trying to picture a scenario where mets can pull off an Arenado trade. Matz, Flores, Robles, Dom Smith and another prospect at least close to being enough?

august fagerstrom: What’s Colorado’s incentive for trading Nolan Arenado?

Jake: Is Xander in the tier with Correa and Lindor in terms of future potential now? Seager may be in that tier as well.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, they’re all really, really good

august fagerstrom: It’s pretty insane

Max: Is Almora’s ceiling that of Inciarte? Inaccurate probably has more patience, and Almora may end up with a little more power but doesn’t seem to far off

august fagerstrom: I admittedly don’t know *too* much about Almora, but that sounds like a decent comp

august fagerstrom: Or at least player-type

august fagerstrom: Glove-first guy with enough bat to play

Steve: Does Yordano Ventura learn from this incident with the O’s or does he continue his childish ways?

august fagerstrom: You’d think if he was going to learn he’d have learned by now

ballsballsballs: More impressive: Kershaw 6 BBs or Ichiro 6 Ks? Also, keeping in mind that when Ichiro played in Japan the season was like 130 games, if he played his entire career in the US would he have passed Rose?

august fagerstrom: I think so, yeah

Brittany: Do you see the Indians seeking additional offensive help at the trade deadline (whether it’s another OF or if they get creative somehow)? Brantley’s absence will be felt at some point if everything remains the same and I am highly skeptical that this current outfield will keep up their production.

august fagerstrom: If they remain in contention, yeah, they should

Dave: Please rank Mets pitchers ROS

august fagerstrom: Syndergaard Matz deGrom Harvey

Curtis: Given that all teams need to be represented in the All-Star Game, who will be the weakest choice?

august fagerstrom: The Reds’ representative

Joe: Is there any hope in the wasteland that is the Twins Bullpen?

august fagerstrom: Trevor May!

Chuck: Chen having a harder time in the pitching friendlier NL than he did in that AL E mess, what gives?

august fagerstrom: Last I checked he’d been pitching down in the zone quite a bit more. Might be adjusting to a new approach, or perhaps that’s an indication that his command is off

Nathan: Why have the Blue Jays been so bad offensively? Their “role” players (Saunders and Smoak) have been good which is what was supposed to hold them back.

august fagerstrom: Injuries to their key players

august fagerstrom: Tulo hurt. Martin not himself. Encarnacion not himself

PS: Do you think the sox come down to earth a bit?

august fagerstrom: Not really

august fagerstrom: I’d say they’re the best team in the AL. 90+ wins seems perfectly fine. Their extrapolated record would have them at 94 now

Andy Marte’s Prospect Status: Does Frazier debut before Zimmer? 2017?

august fagerstrom: Still think Zimmer has the inside edge. One of em in 2017 for sure if not both

Frankie: With Brantley a huge question mark, what are the odds the Indians put either Zimmer or Frazier on the table to try and get an impact bat in the middle of the order?

august fagerstrom: Seems pretty short-sighted. Indians org typically doesn’t operate that way. Much more likely they move a lesser prospect for a smaller return

Duke: Thoughts on the Royals possibly selling off some assets IF they are a bit back of Cleveland/Detroit at the deadline? Hard to imagine them being better in 2017 when a few pieces leave and even more hard in 2018 after everyone leaves.

august fagerstrom: It’s going to be really interesting to see how they operate moving forward if faced with the reality that they’re not a contender.

august fagerstrom: I gotta imagine it’s a tough pill to swallow to have that thought a year after being champs with two consecutive WS appearances

august fagerstrom: But they really sold off most of the farm to get there. And like you mentioned, it’s impossible to ignore all the upcoming arb raises and free agent eligible guys

august fagerstrom: That being said, I can’t see them selling this year

august fagerstrom: Any teardown doesn’t happen until the offseason or next year, I don’t think

august fagerstrom: Still a lot of talent on that roster, and you could argue their position in the standings could have more to do with injuries than roster construction. Thinking could be get healthy and be back at it next year

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: how is tyler naquin so bad at playing outfield?

august fagerstrom: It’s been really bizarre

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Rod Barajas, Wes Helms, Tomo Ohka, Jarrod Washburn, B.J. Surhoff

august fagerstrom: Wes freaking Helms

Erik: Is there a link between the rise in fastball velocity and the rise in home runs? Or is the whole “faster in, faster out” idea bad physics?

august fagerstrom: The latter. Been largely (or all the way) disproven, IIRC

JT: The current ideal lineup is this? Would you change it?

C: Posey, 1B: Goldy, 2B: Altuve, SS: Correa 3B: Machado, LF: Cespedes, CF: Trout, RF: Harper

august fagerstrom: I’d want better defense up the middle

JT: Does Anibal Sanchez have more potential than Noah Syndergaard?

JT: Does Aaron Boone have more potential than Noah Syndergaard?

august fagerstrom: boone yes

I like guitar: Does Erik Johnson have a chance to be a quality starter now that he’s in the NL and pitching his home games at PETCO?

august fagerstrom: everyone’s got a chance I suppose

august fagerstrom: Sure wouldn’t be counting on Erik Johnson for much of anything though

I’m not your buddy, Guyer: Gerardo Parra seems like an underwhelming player for COL this season. The net result of his signing was the trade of Dickerson to TB for McGee. Is a package of McGee/Parra really more valuable than the 309/354/556 line that Dickerson put up in 2014 & 2015?

august fagerstrom: Nope. Weird moves when they happened, weird moves now

Slew: Say nice things about the Cleveland Indians.

august fagerstrom: They’re in first place and have a top-five starting rotation

Jumbo Shrimp: Does Jumbo Diaz deserve another chance to close for the Reds?

august fagerstrom: sure ok

Don’t Call Me Pedro: Why is there absolutely no news on Alex Guerrero? Where do you think he ends up?

august fagerstrom: because he’s not good

august fagerstrom: he ends up on somebody’s AAA team

Northsider: In regards to one of your answers: Do physicals for trades really include testing for steroids? Are there any limitations to what they can test? I’m only asking for a friend…

august fagerstrom: I’m honestly not sure. Would assume there’d be testing of some kind.

Curtis: Who’s call up are you most interested in ? of those who have yet to be called up….

august fagerstrom: Giolito

Nathan: Do you know any more about Yulieski Gurriel than I can read on Google?

august fagerstrom: Nope

Nate: Who wins the all-star game this year? NL look like clear winners right now

august fagerstrom: The NL’s pitching staff is a big joke

august fagerstrom: So crazy

Bork: how much more growth do you see in Polanco? What do you peg the probability to be of a 30/30 with a .300 average/.400 OBP in his prime?

august fagerstrom: The probability that anyone in baseball achieves that ever is insanely low

august fagerstrom: So, no

august fagerstrom: We’re seeing his growth right now

august fagerstrom: Running some numbers gimme a sec

august fagerstrom: 30/30/.300/.400 has happened 11 times in the history of baseball ever

august fagerstrom: Three of them were Bonds

august fagerstrom: Then Ken Williams, Mays, Ellis Burks, Larry Walker, Bagwell, Vlad, Bobby Abreu (!) and David Wright (!!)

august fagerstrom: Polanco’s projected for 18 homers and 22 steals this year with a ~.285 AVG and ~.350 OBP. That’s much closer to his ceiling

Nick: Is it even fair to put Lindor and Correa in the same tier anymore? Lindor has put up hitting numbers in line with Correa while playing far superior defense. Ahhh maybe I’m still just bitter about Correa winning the AL ROY.

august fagerstrom: Lindor has been way better than Correa in their first year

august fagerstrom: Think that’s undeniable

august fagerstrom: That being said, Lindor’s probably overperformed at the plate (though this is getting harder to believe with each day) and there’s still reasonably growth in Correa’s bat, potentially a lot of growth

august fagerstrom: Same tier, yeah. No question Lindor’s been better to date though

Dock Ellis: I’m still confused on how Matt Kemp has 15 HRs and 44 RBis and yet only has a .250 OBP. is he the millennial Ruben Sierra?

august fagerstrom: Yes

You Better You Better You Betts: Hi August! Really enjoyed your appearance on the EW podcast the other day and the four-man outfield/five-man infield articles. No question, just a compliment

august fagerstrom: thanks!

august fagerstrom: Talking to Sam and Ben is a pleasure

Bork: Someone else is using the Bork name. Interesting.

august fagerstrom: A Borkspiracy!

Dr. Frank Jobe: Not a question, but I am literally afraid that David Wright is going to die of baseball-related injuries.

august fagerstrom: main reason I quit watching football

Jordan: Do the Indians really have a top 5 staff? Nats Mets Cubs Dodgers all seem a tier above, then competition for the 5th slot is steep

august fagerstrom: I’d say so. Lists are all subjective though

Dougy: Carl Crawford seems like a great fit for CLE. Do you agree? You think they’ll sign him?

august fagerstrom: Carl Crawford’s no better than what they have

august fagerstrom: He was released outright for a reason

Big Joe Montferrant: You think Yelich has peaked at 24?

august fagerstrom: I think it’s unlikely he finishes a season with a wRC+ above 147 which is where he’s at right now

august fagerstrom: I’d say he’s performing at peak-level currently

Big Joe Montferrant: What happened to Paxton for tha Velocity spike?

august fagerstrom: New arm slot. Eno wrote this up just a couple days ago

Bork: Goodbye, friend!

august fagerstrom: Bye, Bork!

august fagerstrom: Bye, all!

august fagerstrom: Have a good week. Speak to you all in seven days. Thanks as always for hanging out