August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 6/7/16

august fagerstrom: hello, all!

august fagerstrom: chatting at the top of the hour

august fagerstrom: chat soundtrack, in celebration of a new Avalanches track, is The Avalanches — Since I Left You

august fagerstrom: also, that new track in question, which is different but good:

august fagerstrom: let us begin!

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: hi Bork!

Haynsie: (High pitched) Kawaaaaaaaaaaaaa Kayayayayayayayayayayayayaaaaaaa

august fagerstrom: and a Paul Hoynes hawk call! Wow. Off to a good start here

august fagerstrom: For those unfamiliar…

august fagerstrom: (probably all of you)

august fagerstrom: Legendary Indians beat writer Paul Hoynes possesses the ability to unleash a truly unbelievable sound, which he unleashes from the press box now and then. It’s called the Hawk Call. It can be heard at around the 7:15 mark of this video: http://blog.cleveland.com/bransonwright/2009/02/starting_blocks_video_q_and_a.html

august fagerstrom: It’s pretty amazing

Jerry DiPoto: How about Edwin Diaz’s debut last night? Hit 102 MPH – think he is a legit shutdown reliever already?

august fagerstrom: He’s been a top prospect in the system. Velocity is legit. I’d imagine they still want his future to be in the rotation, but he looks like an impact arm, yeah

august fagerstrom: 54 strikeouts and 7 walks in Triple-A this year. That’ll do.

The Farthammer: How many more atrocious outings does matt moore have before they send him back to the bullpen and bring up snell?

august fagerstrom: Not many.

august fagerstrom: Snell should be up

Big Perm: Thoughts on Albert Almora potentially getting the call to replace Soler?

august fagerstrom: He’s a 180 from Soler — plus-plus glove, questionable bat. Though I suppose what Soler’s done at the plate the last couple years could be described as questionable, too

august fagerstrom: It’s not like the Cubs are hurting for offense, and Almora will certainly help out the pitching staff.

august fagerstrom: It’s not a huge dropoff form Soler, if any. Surprise! The Cubs have more good players.

The Farthammer: should byung ho take a full season to adjust? 2 more months? crap shoot? or is he just chris carter and he is what he is

august fagerstrom: I mean I think it was a very real possibility from the beginning that he was Chris Carter

august fagerstrom: Obviously though Chris Carter is much more firmly entrenched in his Chris Carter-ness than Park

august fagerstrom: Park still has plenty of time to adjust

august fagerstrom: But it wouldn’t be a shock if this is what he was — ~10-15% better than average at the plate, tons of K’s, buncha dingers

Deeds: Is Jon Gray a top 50 SP here on out?

august fagerstrom: Rest of season projections say so: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=rfangraphsdc&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=20%2cd

Matt: Hey August, if you were the Astros, would you trade Alex Bregman for Julio Teheran?

august fagerstrom: nooooooooope

Jack: I’m sure I’m not the only one who’s going to ask about James Paxton and his newly discovered velocity, but here goes: He averaged 98 MPH on his fastball last night with a max of 101.3. Even if the stadium gun was running a little hot, that’s still elite velocity for any pitcher, but especially so for a LH starter. I have two questions: (1) Is there any explanation of that kind of velocity spike, and (2) Assuming he can maintain it, what should Mariners fans expect from him moving forward? Thanks!

august fagerstrom: I don’t believe the stadium gun was running hot — Indians pitchers were sitting in their typical velocity band. Paxton was literally sitting 98 and touching 100 last night

august fagerstrom: That’s obviously a very good thing

august fagerstrom: Explanation? Full health is the easiest one. He’s also pretty noticeable changed his mechanics, dropping his arm slot, which Sullivan touched on here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/james-paxton-was-horrible-and-promising/

august fagerstrom: As for question No. 2, that Sullivan piece will help, and I believe Eno is working on a follow-up as we speak

august fagerstrom: They should expect more than what they expected a couple months ago. That’s for sure

Benji: New Nick Cave & Bad Seeds album in September!!!! ………is it September yet?

august fagerstrom: Am very excited for this. Still holding out hope that another Grinderman record comes. That’s honestly my favorite Nick Cave project

Frank Abignale Jr.: I haven’t had a pleasant thought about Ricky Nolasco in years, BUT – he’s got five Ks per BB, he’s sub-4 in FIP and SIERA, and he’s got 14 Ks over his last two starts. Anything to all this to get excited about?

august fagerstrom: No

Belted: Where do you think the Giants will be looking for bullpen help? They clearly need a boost there.

august fagerstrom: They’ll be looking toward the Yankees.

Pedro Cerrano: Is George Springer due for any batting average regression?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think so. He took a huge step forward in his approach last year, and that’s continued into this year, so the drop in strikeout looks for real. The BABIP looks for real, too. He has the perfect high-BABIP profile — speed, line drives and grounders, opposite field tendencies

august fagerstrom: He should easily be able to maintain .330+ BABIPs

Erik: Loved the piece about the 5-man infield. In, say, 10 years, how common will 3- or 5-man infields be? Will there be only one or two opportunities per year for a team to do something so radical? Or are we talking more like once every other game or so?

august fagerstrom: I was honestly a little surprised that Kendrick was the only guy who stuck out. I mean, really, he was the *only* one who checked all the boxes, and even he didn’t check the fifth box of “actually being a hitter that teams need to worry about.” That was the whole reason Sam and Ben put the five-man infield on Scott David in the first place — he was killing them. Teams don’t necessarily need to get radical to stop Howie Kendrick, though I do think there are hits to be taken away there, which would make it advantageous for teams to do it regardless of whether Kendrick is beating them or not

august fagerstrom: I think we’ll see it sporadically within 10 years

august fagerstrom: Sporadically being the key word, though. The type of hitter for whom it makes sense is just so specific

august fagerstrom: In case anyone missed the piece in question — it went up pretty late yesterday and was on InstaGraphs — it can be found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/identifying-the-ideal-candidate-for-the-five-man-infield/

august fagerstrom: Four-man outfield version will be coming later today

Erik: Freddy Galvis is currently baseball’s 4th best defender, according to FanGraphs’ leaderboards. Are there any contenders who would trade anything worthwhile for a top defensive shortstop (if he really counts as one)?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think he counts as one. The 2,000 innings of him being an average-or-worse defender are more important than this year’s 500 innings of one defensive metric thinking he’s above average

august fagerstrom: That said, I haven’t seen much Galvis, so I don’t know whether he passes the eye test

Ben: Bounce-back-o-meeter: Carlos Gomez; Prince Fielder; Corey Dickerson; Michael Wacha

august fagerstrom: I’ll take Wacha

august fagerstrom: and probably Dickerson

august fagerstrom: Leaving Fielder alone

august fagerstrom: I’ll take Gomez next season, maybe, thinking he’ll be healthier than he is now

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What does a realistic Lucroy return look like? I’ve heard Profar + spare parts/lottery tickets come up a lot – do the Brewers even want that type of return?

august fagerstrom: My thinking is that they must be pretty far off what teams are willing to give, otherwise there’d been a deal by now

MATT DAMON: MATT DAMON

august fagerstrom: !!!

Jay Z: INTENSE QUESTION: What would be your top three walk-up to the plate songs? Also, off the top of your head are there any players you have run into with good/eclectic music tastes?

august fagerstrom: I’ve thought about this a lot before, and I always come back to the horn drop in RJD2’s “Ghostwriter” as my ideal walk-up music

august fagerstrom: And, no, haven’t had much music talk with ballplayers. a) because it’s just not a real natural thing to come up but moreso because b) ballplayers just don’t have the sort of time that I have to invest in finding and appreciating a wealth of different types of music

Nelson: That new avalanches isnt great. Or maybe my expectations were too high, or just my musical tastes have changed in the past 16 years

august fagerstrom: For me, it hits that perfect, indescribable medium of somehow sounding just like the old stuff that you’re used to while also introducing a totally new sound to keep it fresh

august fagerstrom: oh! you said *isn’t*

august fagerstrom: thought we were on the same page

august fagerstrom: I also had no expectations at all — I don’t whenever a group goes away for that long

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Which of the currently rebuilding franchises will be lauded as having executed the most successful rebuild 10 years down the road?

august fagerstrom: Phillies seem to be doing some kind of job

august fagerstrom: Like what the Brewers have going on, too

august fagerstrom: Not as big a fan of what the Reds have done, or the early-rebuild Brewers

august fagerstrom: sorry, Padres. early-rebuild Padres

Matt: What should I eat for lunch?

august fagerstrom: You can literally never go wrong with a Reuben.

Erik: Is deception the sort of thing that wears off as hitters start to see a pitcher regularly? If true, would that put a damper on hopes for Aaron Nola’s future?

august fagerstrom: Thought about going into this

august fagerstrom: Impossible to say, but it feels like it would be the sort of thing that batters can catch onto

august fagerstrom: That says, there’s different types of deception. Like, say, for example, a guy with a funky delivery — that effect might wear off sooner rather than later as guys get used to the timing or the visual

august fagerstrom: But with Nola being able to spot that fastball on the outer-edge the way he does, I mean, you just can’t do much against that

august fagerstrom: His average fastball is essentially a perfect fastball

N.W.enO: Is Cutch gonna finish as the Cutch of old?

august fagerstrom: I’d bet on it

Jay Z: Bauer looked great last night. Not just the command but I don’t remember his two seamer looking the good before. I know its just one start but do you feel like a good stretch is coming?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, Bauer looks like a totally different guy this year. I’d lost all faith after last year. Consider my faith restored

august fagerstrom: His two-seamer is filthy — it’s actually what inspired spreadsheet request that led to the Nola post. When he’s backdooring it, he’s unhittable

august fagerstrom: He’s focusing on ground balls now and only using the elevated four-seamer as a weapon rather than a go-to pitch that too often got him behind in counts.

august fagerstrom: Not ready to go back to “ace upside” from the Bauer prospect days, but he’s looking more and more like a capable, innings-eater mid-rotation guy. He looked like a future bullpen arm last year.

Erik: Fun Clayton Kershaw fact: over the past three years, his xFIPs have been 2.08, 2.09, and 2.09. He’s pretty good. Maybe about 2.09 xFIP good. Just throwing a number out there.

august fagerstrom: He’s also outperformed his xFIP by 60 points over his career

august fagerstrom: ZiPS projects his true-talent ERA *and* FIP as UNDER 2.00!!!!!

august fagerstrom: so silly

Jay Z: If I named a son August there is no chance people call him “Augie” correct?

august fagerstrom: Three people call me this

Rizz: Yesterday, it was said that Kyle Hendricks could never be Greg Maddux. What specifically makes this so?

august fagerstrom: because Greg Maddux in his prime was the best pitcher of all-time

august fagerstrom: (fight me)

Bork: Maybe Hoynes can go to the Cavs game and inspire them to not be trash.

august fagerstrom: ugh

august fagerstrom: 🙁

Ronnie: DRS (+27) & UZR (-26) have very different numerical opinions regarding Ryan Braun’s LF defense in a sample of almost 7,500 innings. Is he most likely just about average?

august fagerstrom: Huh.

august fagerstrom: That’s bizarre.

august fagerstrom: DRS and UZR both agree he’s been bad in RF the last two years. His negative UZR over his career is more than double his postiive DRS. Eye test has never done Braun any favors. Most recent data is mostly negative

august fagerstrom: I’d err on the side of below average. Maybe in the 0 to -5 range

Chris: Danny Salazar is gonna be ok, right???

august fagerstrom: ¯\_(?)_/¯

mike: speaking of cleveland. how do you see Naquin contributing to the major league ballclub this year?

august fagerstrom: still strikes me as a fourth outfielder

august fagerstrom: Indians have like five of those

Arquimedes Canyonero: Who would you say is the biggest FIP-buster in mlb right now? Gotta think Marco Estrada is on a short list. He was super impressive no-hitting the Sox into the 8th over the weekend

august fagerstrom: 2.74 ERA over his last 210 innings!

august fagerstrom: he is so much fun

august fagerstrom: https://twitter.com/AugustFG_/status/739793751699165184

Jason: Hard to tell what Nats are doing with Turner. Assuming no one lands on the DL, does he sit in AAA until rosters expand?

august fagerstrom: You’re right, it is hard to tell.

Erik: Does the decrease in pitcher durability lower the standards for pitchers getting into the Hall of Fame, or just mean that there will be fewer Hall of Fame pitchers going forward? It’s quite hard to reach benchmarks like 250 wins, 3000 strikeouts, or 60 WAR these days.

august fagerstrom: Lowers the standards

august fagerstrom: More emphasis should be placed on peak rather than longevity, IMO

donk: do you think the red sox will learn to stop putting players who aren’t outfielders in left field?

august fagerstrom: To be fair, it probably makes more sense for Boston to punt left field than any other team in baseball

Sirras: Homer, dinger, donger, dong, what is your favorite way to describe the four-base hit?

august fagerstrom: Dinger, easy

Kyle: Hey, August! What do you make of Addison Russell’s less-than-impressive performance this far into the season, and any thoughts on why Maddon would consistently bat a guy like La Stella at the front of the order in front of Russell who (seemingly) has a better skill set?

august fagerstrom: La Stella is probably a better hitter than Russell

august fagerstrom: Russell is so valuable because of the glove, and because he hits enough

Kyle: Should I worry about McCullers arm more since he is throwing nearly 50% breaking balls? Does the increase in breaking balls mostly explain both the higher strike-out and walk rates?

august fagerstrom: I still don’t think we have any idea what actually injures pitchers

august fagerstrom: From what I understand, high velocity fastballs are more worrisome than heavy reliance on breaking pitches

august fagerstrom: The breaking pitches thing basically started out as a guess

august fagerstrom: You should worry about all pitchers arms

Paul O-S: A little off topic, as a finance guy looking to get more into the sabermetrics do you have any suggested reading to learn more on the details of the subject? Lot’s of books out there (like in finance/Investing) it’s hard to pick out the top ones from reviews alone.

august fagerstrom: Ask Dave Cameron this tomorrow! He’s your finance guy.

Rick: If the postseason started now, which Cubs starter would you give the fourth starting job to? Jason Hammel or Kyle Hendricks?

august fagerstrom: Hendricks, easy

Pops: Trevor Bauer was hitting 98 on the Seattle gun last night, never saw that before.

august fagerstrom: Bauer’s game-by-game velocity: http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=545333&b_hand=-1&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017

august fagerstrom: Mostly unchanged

august fagerstrom: Paxton’s http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=572020&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=01/01/2016&endDate=01/01/2017

august fagerstrom: Picked up a tick from most recent start, which was already up many ticks

Sirras: What is your favorite month and why is it July?

august fagerstrom: October

august fagerstrom: Fall is the best season

Mike: How many worry points do you assign to Danny Salazar missing a start? Or are all the Indians worry points already used up on Michael Brantley?

august fagerstrom: I’d shift one Worry Point over

Alex: I don’t think the Cardinals sending down Wong is the wrong move but that’s putting an awful lot of faith in Diaz, no?

august fagerstrom: It is. I trust the Cardinals ability to make that decision, though.

SMOD ’16: How often do you look at age vs. competition when evaluating a prospect?

august fagerstrom: Always

toadstool: Article idea: Lance McCullers and his fastest-in-the-bigs curveball that he’s throwing damn near 50% of the time and still getting all the whiffs. That pitch is crazy.

august fagerstrom: Your article idea became an article reality just yesterday!

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/lance-mccullers-curveballs-like-nobody-curveballs/

Fredo: How good is Matz exactly? Top 20 SP?

august fagerstrom: ~right now~ he’s the second-best pitcher in New York

Jimmy: Do you have any super secret insight into Brantley’s shoulder? Seems like a baseline to expect him back around the all start break? (Perhaps more importantly, does Cleveland hang around the AL central long enough for his return to matter?)

august fagerstrom: I think August might be more realistic

Dave: How did we get to the point where the Braves and their fans are over-valuing Julio Terehan? A friend of mine, who is a braves fan, insists that if the Braves were to trade Terehan to the Red Sox, the braves should get nothing short of either Mookie Betts or Boegarts, or Mocada and either Bernadtindi/ Dever. I on the other hand don’t think the Red Sox would surrender any of those players straight up for Terehan.

august fagerstrom: Fans always overvalue their own players

Mike: Cleveland’s defense: Is it good, or no? It looks like the different metrics have vastly different opinions.

august fagerstrom: The infield is good. The outfield is questionable.

James: What’s the best MLB stadium? Camden Yards, right?

august fagerstrom: PNC Park

David: I hear Zimmer isn’t expected to be called up after super-two. Does this make any sense? He’s tearing up AA and appears to be exactly what the Indians need.

august fagerstrom: I’d be wary of a 30% K rate in Double-A jumping straight to the majors

august fagerstrom: Indians are always very cautious in promoting their prospects. They’re not going to change that out of a panic move

Guy: Nola and Velasquez. Could you explain their potentiality of being shut down please?

august fagerstrom: Velasquez will be limited

august fagerstrom: Nola threw 190 innings last year

august fagerstrom: Training wheels are off for him I’d say

Max Power: August! I played college baseball in Canada at Brock University and my walkup tracks were Ghostwriter and It Was a Good Day by Ice Cube. Had to share when I saw your fantastic choice.

august fagerstrom: Nice!

august fagerstrom: Since I Left You ended and I’ve now switched over to RJD2’s Deadringer

august fagerstrom: Such a good record

august fagerstrom: and as I type this Ghostwriter comes on!

august fagerstrom: hooray

august fagerstrom: also, hey look at that, Jameson Taillon is being called up

august fagerstrom: he beat Glasnow to the majors. Who’da thunk it

baby bull: why did San Diego pay half of Shields’ salary just to get 0 return in terms of prospects back, if they were going to eat the money anyway just let him pitch for you until you can get a useable prospect back, not a 17 yr old corner inf/of with a below avg projection

august fagerstrom: This assumes Shields value goes up over the season rather than down

august fagerstrom: He had very little trade value as is. Coulda got worse. They got what they could.

august fagerstrom: which is *something*

baby bull: lol Greg Maddux is obviously great but not the GOAT probably just outside of top 5

august fagerstrom: FWIW, seven-year pitcher peaks in the modern era:

august fagerstrom: 1. Maddux, 59.5 WAR
2. Pedro, 57.9
3. Clemens, 55.9
4. Unit, 55.2
5. Gibson, 53.4

James: So I remember Jeff’s article last year about Joey Votto stealing bases because Billy Hamilton was on 3rd so the catcher wouldn’t throw. Each time Votto looked like he was trying to bait a throw so Hamilton would score, so if that happened how would that affect his baserunning value?

august fagerstrom: That was actually my article!

august fagerstrom: and, well, if Hamilton scored, he’d obviously get a steal and that would help his baserunning value

august fagerstrom: I suppose technically even if Hamilton didn’t score, in a perfect world he could be assigned some fraction of value for Votto’s steal, but then again we can’t be 100% sure Votto wouldn’t have stolen without Hamilton on third anyway

Danny: Is Zach Britton’s two seam/sinker the best pitch in baseball? Regardless, what makes it so good? High 90’s with a lot of sink is just unhittable?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, what makes it so good is that it’s completely unlike anything else

august fagerstrom: This Sullivan piece from last year is good: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/zach-britton-s-sinker-is-truly-unlike-any-other-101014

Jay: I was pretty un-happy that Kris Bryant missed double-donging by a total of about 3 feet yesterday. Can you make me feel better about it?

august fagerstrom: He’ll have a few more cracks at it

Bork: Other then Happ’s last outing, he and Estrada have been steals when looking at their contract.

august fagerstrom: Yep! Two very good signings. Weird how it’s been the Blue Jays’ rotation carrying its lineup

august fagerstrom: Baseball is so easy to predict

Phil: What happened in 2002 to allow everyone access to batted ball data? Nothing ever goes before that. I can’t seem to pinpoint what was released or invented.

august fagerstrom: Baseball Info Solutions

Danny: One thing worth adding to the Aaron Nola piece. The curve has the most horizontal break of any curve in baseball, in the opposite direction of his two seam. So when the pitch leaves his hand, the ball could land in two different spots about two feet away from each other. That has got to be really difficult for a hitter.

august fagerstrom: Actually meant to include this and forgot! Darnit! Yeah, 10 inches of horizontal break one way on the two-seam, 10 inches the other way on the curveball

august fagerstrom: Nola is so much fun

baby bull: you say HOF standards should be based on peak not longevity, but how long of a HOF peak must they maintain? always comes back to longevity no? Chase Utley would be a HOF if just based off peak

august fagerstrom: Utley is a Hall of Famer, IMO

august fagerstrom: And I didn’t say it should be based solely on peak. Just that, for pitchers, the distribution should probably shift closer to peak than it’s been in the past

Duke: Any idea why home runs seem to be at 1999/2000 levels;
HR/PA%
2000 – 3%
2016 – 2.9%
2001 – 2.9%

august fagerstrom: Nope! This is the great baseball mystery

august fagerstrom: The best theory is that MLB changed the balls at the All-Star Break last year, but Ben Lindbergh and Rob Arthur did a good job of trying to debunk that theory here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseball-mystery-the-home-run-is-back-and-no-one-knows-why/

august fagerstrom: Read that piece. It’s got all the information you could want on the home run spike. And it’s just an awesome, awesome piece. One of my favorite pieces of baseball writing in the last year. They sent baseballs to a fucking laboratory.

njs: best walk up music: march of the republic (darth vader’s theme).

august fagerstrom: Not bad. I was gonna one-up you with Duel of the Fates, but I’m not sure how well it fits with a walk-up song in retrospect

august fagerstrom: Though now that we’re down this road, using a section of Johann Strauss’ Blue Danube Waltz as a walk-up song could be cool. One of my all-time favorite pieces of music

Bubba: Which announcers have the best home run calls? What are they?

august fagerstrom: For me, no one will ever top Tom Hamilton:

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Joe Crede, Jeff Fassero, Ryan Church, Damion Easley, Brandon Lyon

august fagerstrom: yesssssss

august fagerstrom: Jeff Fassero!

august fagerstrom: Unrelated to Sal Fasano, I believe

pirates hurdles: August, Paul O-S wasnt asking about finance, he was asking about Saber books like The Book, Big Data Baseball etc

august fagerstrom: Oh! I misinterpreted

august fagerstrom: Big Data Baseball is a great and recent read on the Pirates’ rebuild

DCguy: How many wins does Kershaw get this season? Another MVP season possibly?

august fagerstrom: He’s my MVP right now

Buctober: How many worry points for Liriano?

august fagerstrom: hella

Josh: What’s your take on Byron Buxton? Has he made the necessary adjustments to succeed long term in the majors?

august fagerstrom: Way too soon to tell. He’s still got crazy upside, though. Always has

Josh: What is Valencia’s true talent level at this point? .280/30 HR?

august fagerstrom: Seems a touch aggressive. .275/25?

Guy: How often does someone make a bad pun with your name to your face?

august fagerstrom: pretty much never

Buctober: I know its a homer vote, but PNC has gotta be the best. no bad seat in the house, primantis, and that view. 100/100, A++++

august fagerstrom: Make it a point to go at least once a summer. View from the upper deck behind home plate can’t be beat

Sam: Will Conforto rebound?

august fagerstrom: more of an outside shooter IMO

Mike: If I’m the Yankees, I’m demanding two out of Giolito, Turner or Robels from the Nationals for Miller or Chapman. Reasonable or no?

august fagerstrom: not at all

James: But PNC is a copy of Camden Yards…

august fagerstrom: except prettier

Duke: Hosmer has like a ~60% groundball rate this year, and like 55% for his career…chance he ever hits 30 HR?

august fagerstrom: not with that many grounders, no

august fagerstrom: This is fun, though:

august fagerstrom: Highest average distance on homers, Hosmer ranks second — http://hittrackeronline.com/golden_sledgehammer.php

august fagerstrom: Hosmer’s average HR distance this year: 421ft
Giancarlo average HR distance this year: 419ft

Tim: so tomorrow’s pitching matchup is Thor vs. Taillon? SEXYTIME

august fagerstrom: will be tuning into this

ctw: not to gloat, but pretty sure I called Taillon getting to majors before Glasnow in a chat (might’ve been yours, August) several weeks ago

august fagerstrom: congrats!

august fagerstrom: also-

august fagerstrom: not to gloat, but, *gloats*

august fagerstrom: 🙂

AyyMon: Kershaw total walks this season: +/- 22?

august fagerstrom: oh man

august fagerstrom: this is so good

august fagerstrom: over by like 3

august fagerstrom: i can’t believe that’s actually something that requires consideration

Mike: Dong is the absolute worst way to describe a home run.

august fagerstrom: unless used in the sense of “Long Ding Dong Johnson”

august fagerstrom: then it’s ok

Chris: Do you see Dylan Cease as being a potential front of the rotation starter? What are your thoughts on him?

august fagerstrom: This question has been submitted like 11 times. Please do not do that — once is enough. As for Dylan Cease, he’s a 19-year-old in Rookie Ball, and my opinion of him is certainly less important than any publicly available scouting report

august fagerstrom: I’d recommend those

Mike: Indians seem for real, right? Even though some guys (Tomlin, Salazar, Lindor possibly) are playing a little over expectation and may be expected to regress, they still have Kipnis, Kluber, Carrasco, Brantley (maybe) that could come in and pick up the slack if that happens.

august fagerstrom: They’re as for real (probably moreso) than any other team in the AL Central, I’d say

Teddy: Re Maddux: Isn’t it a little on the random side to say “seven year” peak?

august fagerstrom: Seven years is what JAWS uses, for what it’s worth

august fagerstrom: That’s why I went with it

pirates hurdles: Cervelli’s choice of “That’s Amore” played a big part in him going from the stiff that is replacing Russ Martin, to beloved fan favorite in just over a year.

august fagerstrom: walk up music goes a long way

august fagerstrom: Francisco Lindor is currently using the Space Jam theme, which I must say is amazing

Bork: Other then the Tigers, which team seems destined to be a full blown rebuild in the next few years?

august fagerstrom: I’m actually not sure the Tigers are

august fagerstrom: As long as Illitch is alive, they’re gonna be going for it

august fagerstrom: If this White Sox team doesn’t cut it they’re probably next

august fagerstrom: Royals will be in an interesting spot with all their stars getting expensive in arb/hitting free agency

august fagerstrom: Yankees roster is an obvious rebuild candidate but they’re the Yankees, so

Gary Bertier: Is Taillon/Kuhl/Glasnow/Cole the next Degrom/Thor/Harvey/Matz?

august fagerstrom: probably best to never expect a deGrom/Thor/Harvey/Matz

Mike: Say Cleveland either brings up Zimmer, gets Brantley back, or trades for an OF. Do you keep Jose Ramirez in the lineup everyday, and how? Does Uribe get benched?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, Jose Ramirez is easily one of Cleveland’s best nine players

Sean: Adam Dunn was 8-13 in his career against Kershaw with 4 HR. 3:1 K:BB.

august fagerstrom: Amazing

Britt: If Indians decide to be buyers is it possible that Chisenhall is part of a trade package along with some pitching prospects?

august fagerstrom: for an outfielder? sure

august fagerstrom: I thought they’d trade Lonnie in a package for an outfielder in the offseason

Snowflake: If Paxton keeps pitching like he did last night who gets bumped from the rotation when Felix returns?

august fagerstrom: gotta be Miley

Christopher Robin: Maddux had 12 straight seasons with over 5 WAR lol

august fagerstrom: Even more Amazing

Christopher Robin: Without looking it up, guess how many seasons Mo Vaughn had a WAR over 7

august fagerstrom: well I’d definitely guess 0, but since you’re asking, I’ll say 2?

august fagerstrom: Two over 6!

august fagerstrom: No 7s!

august fagerstrom: at least using fWAR

Homer: Also, saw that Kershaw walk question, here’s another fun one: Kershaw K/BB, greater or less than 10 by end of season

august fagerstrom: over

august fagerstrom: if we’re going with 25 walks from before

august fagerstrom: The strikeout rate is stable — he’s right now where he’s been the last two years, so that seems easy enough to project. Projections have him finishing with 288

august fagerstrom: If the true-talent walk rate has truly changed, which I think it has, then the projections could be slow to pick up on it

august fagerstrom: so if we say like, 25 walks instead of the 31 the projections have, that’s an 11.5 K/BB

august fagerstrom: 31 gets you 9.3 K/BB

XYZ: Wow, Mazara is way out in front on that HR distance leaderboard. That kid is going to be a superstar.

august fagerstrom: Watch the one he hit to center in Cleveland

august fagerstrom: You never see it come down

august fagerstrom: That doesn’t happen often in Cleveland

august fagerstrom: Also, HitTracker isn’t giving him the 491 that Statcast gave him for the homer off Santiago

august fagerstrom: So it’s not even being pulled up by what many thought was a data glitch

august fagerstrom: Power has been realllly impressive

Cony Tampana: Can there be a pitcher only hr derby?

august fagerstrom: Would never happen. Pitchers break easy enough as is

Cony Tampana: IS Hendricks the best high 80s pitcher in the game today?

august fagerstrom: Sure

august fagerstrom: How many other high-80’s pitchers are good at all?

august fagerstrom: How many are there, even?

Mike: Does anybody really want Chisenhall though?

august fagerstrom: He’s something

august fagerstrom: Which is why Cleveland would have no trouble including him in a package, was the point

Cony Tampana: The Cubs have a 99.6% chance to make the playoffs. What does the .4% look like?

august fagerstrom: it’s morbid

Mike: 25 walks over ~230 innings is amazing.

august fagerstrom: Clayton Kershaw is amazing

Zorak: When David Wright came up all of his walk-up songs were Dave Matthews Band. Now he uses “I got 5 on it” and it has dramatically raised my opinion of him as a person. In other news, RIP David Wright.

august fagerstrom: *pours one out*

Bork: Goodbye, friend!

august fagerstrom: Bork knows me too well!

august fagerstrom: That’s it for this week. Hopefully the extra 40 minutes this week helped make up for last week’s short sick chat.

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting everyone! This one was a lot of fun. Same time same place next week