August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 8/16/16

august fagerstrom: West coast chat!

august fagerstrom: Coming to you live from a coffee shop in Los Angeles, three hours earlier than I’m used to chatting

august fagerstrom: soundtrack: Portishead – Dummy

august fagerstrom: which record I purchased at the most insane record store I’ve ever visited yesterday (Amoeba Records in Hollywood)

august fagerstrom: was so overwhelming walking in there

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: hello, Bork!

Mike: Is there a way to differentiate between a hitter’s contact rate against RHP and LHP separately?

august fagerstrom: would take a few steps with BaseballSavant but you could do it

august fagerstrom: no easy way to generate a leaderboard, though, to my knowledge

Bork: Can we get a weekly take on Devon Travis? Because Devon Travis.

august fagerstrom: not underrated, hopefully!

Fire Kevin Cash: Kevin Kiermaier has about doubled his walk rate since coming back in July. Where did this come from and is it sustainable?

august fagerstrom: so many walks against lefties!

august fagerstrom: may have just generated me a topic idea, which might be my favorite part of these chats

Officer Mark Lemke: Opinion needed: Who is the more productive hitter next year and going forward: Joc Peterson or Conforto ?

august fagerstrom: I have long been a big Joc Pederson believer

Josh: Is Michael Gettys making believers, or is there still significant concerns about his hit tool?

august fagerstrom: reminder to new chatters: I am not a prospect guy! Therefore, it’s very possible I’ve never even heard of someone like Michael Gettys, or even Michael Gettys specifically. What you want is the Eric Longenhagen prospect chat on Mondays

Bork: Coco Crisp is upset the A’s are benching him so his $13m option doesn’t vest. Because his -0.4 WAR is totally worth starting him in left.

august fagerstrom: Id probably be upset about losing the potential of $13M too

Erik: Is it accurate to say that the Phillies and Yankees are in very similar situations? Both have lots of budget space and a recently reloaded farm system with plenty of guys in the high minors ready to contribute as early as next season. Do they have the same playoff ETA?

august fagerstrom: Even after the deals, the Yankees have the better current team, and the Yankees always feel like they can turn it on at a moment’s notice and contend if they want to with their market

august fagerstrom: but, yeah, the similarities are there

Ronnie: 1,624 IP 9.92 K9 2.34 BB9 0.51 HR9 2.26 ERA (60 ERA-) 2.45 FIP (63 FIP-) 51 WAR
1,632 IP 9.44 K9 2.27 BB9 0.64 HR9 2.19 ERA (63 ERA-) 2.22 FIP (68 FIP-) 46 WAR

Can you tell which string of numbers/letters is Sandy Koufax circa 1961-66 & which is Clayton Kershaw circa 2009-now?

august fagerstrom: nope!

august fagerstrom: Would really like to see Kershaw pitching again soon 🙁

Patrick: Is Mookie Betts the best outfielder in the MLB besides Mike Trout in your opinion?

august fagerstrom: If we’re playing the “You’re starting a team and you can pick one OF after Trout…” game I still take Harper

august fagerstrom: But Betts is probably the next guy, yeah. And, obviously, Harper isn’t presently *Harper*, so if we’re playing the “right now…” game, yeah, Betts has a strong case

Alex: Who has a better chance of getting in the HOF, Tulo or Votto? Who would you have said 2 years ago?

august fagerstrom: Votto and Votto

Gerb: You get to build a team from any AL teams outfield + infield + Starters + Bullpen, which 4 groups do you take ROS? NL?

august fagerstrom: If I can fudge things around just a bit, I’d certainly take a Reed-Altuve-Correa-Bregman infield moving forward. The OF seems like a pretty easy choice with Benintendi-Bradley-Betts. Indians rotation. Bullpen is tough. Probably the Orioles

august fagerstrom: NL is Cubs infield, still Pirates OF. Nats rotation if that means I get Giolito and Lopez too. And probably Cubs bullpen

august fagerstrom: RoS wouldn’t be significantly different

Jack: How much of the Dodgers injury issues are by design or just bad luck? Outside of Kershaw and a couple others (like ethier) it seems like this is what you get when you buy low on pitchers with histories of injuries. It’s kinda crazy that we are in the second week of august and they are only one game behind the Giants

august fagerstrom: Wrote about this in the offseason. I think it’s by design: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-kazmir-the-dodgers-and-health/

G-men : Who is closing for the GIANTS next year? In house or FA?

august fagerstrom: In-house. Strickland and Law both look like closers of the future

Farmer Realmuto: Crops are doing well this season, could use some rain though. Brb, taking Giancarlo out to pasture

august fagerstrom: solid callback

Chip Locke: Friendly reminder that Joey Votto is in the top 10 for WRC+ again.

august fagerstrom: he is amazing

E: Guys who played in the MLB – Geoff Jenkins, Jose Vidro, Matt Clement, Eddie Guardado, Rondell White

august fagerstrom: got it in early this week, well done

august fagerstrom: gonna add Jeromy Burnitz to the mix

august fagerstrom: always associated he and Geoff Jenkins together. big fan of that pairing

august fagerstrom: Jenkins: 24.5 career WAR
Burnitz: 25.1 career WAR

august fagerstrom: it goes deeper!

august fagerstrom: From 1998-01 with Milwaukee:

Jenkins 115 wRC+, 10.2 WAR
Burnitz: 117 wRC+, 12.2 WAR

august fagerstrom: this has been your important “Geoff Jenkins and Jeromy Burnitz similarity update”

Erik: Billy Hamilton is what he is at this point, right? How much extra value does he provide by scaring pitchers, which as far as I know isn’t quantified in any major metric? Around a win?

august fagerstrom: Ben Lindbergh wrote about this a couple years back: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/the-streak-is-over-bartolo-colon-draws-first-career-mlb-walk-081616

august fagerstrom: That’s not the link!

august fagerstrom: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/does-a-speedster-on-base-help-the-guy-at-the-plate-051314

august fagerstrom: That is!

august fagerstrom: Might be worth an update. As to your first question: he’s the weirdest 3-win player ever

Avi: How are you enjoying LaLa Land August?

august fagerstrom: Loving it! I’d never been to LA before, and now realize I had misconceptions. I figured I’d enjoy the time spent with my buddies and the gorgeous views but wouldn’t love the city/people. I’m shocked at how… sparse it can be

august fagerstrom: It’s not like NY where everyone is right on top of one another

august fagerstrom: Think I could live out here. Have taken a couple mountain hikes and good lord could I get used to that

Lloyd Braun: Who has better odds at making HOF: Halladay or Utley?

august fagerstrom: Should both be in, IMO. Maybe would give Halladay the voter’s edge

august fagerstrom: Think Utley will have the “if it weren’t for the injuries…” narrative, when in reality his peak was absolutely HoF-worthy and his counting stats IMO are good enough

Gerb: Is Kipnis at his Peak? If you ignore his injured 2014 season, he consistently keeps getting better. ’12 – 3.4 WAR, ’13 – 4.5 WAR, ’15 – 5.2 WAR, ’16 – On pace for about 6

august fagerstrom: Probably. He’s made changes to his swing this year to tap into more pull power. Used to be that Francona would always say the best Kipnis swing was the double off the opposite-field wall. He’s going for something different this year

Toki: Really coffee shop? We all know this is from a brewery that happens to serve coffee.

august fagerstrom: 9:30 here! Not drinking quite yet

Erik: Who would be the best gamble: Gomez, Puig, or A-Rod? And what teams have both the desire and the need to take that sort of gamble?

august fagerstrom: PuigPuigPuig

august fagerstrom: Kinda surprised we heard Gomez-MIA rumors before Puig honestly

JD15: What are your thoughts on the Cubs and Papelbon?

august fagerstrom: he’d be like their 6th-best reliever

Yulieski’s Squirriel: Gurriel – hitting for no power, no average, and has yet to walk. This is not what a veteran player should be doing in AA, even with a long layoff. I’m starting to smell another Hector Olivera (minus the personal issues)

august fagerstrom: literally 42 plate appearances

Alex: Do you have A-Rod in your top 5 players of all time? If not where abouts does he slot in?

august fagerstrom: top-10 modern era position players

JD15: What happens to Alex Bregman’s playing time when Gurriel is called up? Or is it one of the outfielders not named Springer who should be more worried?

august fagerstrom: the latter, probably

Matt: Have you ever stopped to consider that maybe Bork is just the computer that really created Watson (the less superior computer) and gave credit to the scientists because he’s just such a selfless guy?

august fagerstrom: the fact that he’s the first submission every week bar none does make me wonder

Erik: Could you make a legitimate case that WPA is a far better metric for determining awards than WAR, given that awards should account for context and should be descriptive rather than predictive? In that case, Zach Britton could possibly even be considered a runaway favorite for Cy Youn at this point.

august fagerstrom: I’m sympathetic to the idea. I’m a fan of result/context-based thinking for awards, but I know that’s not agreed upon by everybody and might even be a minority opinion

august fagerstrom: All the information should be used

JD15: What did the Cubs do to Adam Warren to make him not Adam Warren? I was so bummed that the Adam Warren experience ended so soon in Chicago.

august fagerstrom: Remember reading something about his slider once he got traded back to NYY

august fagerstrom: Here it is. From Kenny Ducey: http://bronx.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/02/larry-rothschild-has-already-brought-back-the-old-adam-warren/

Josh: What has gotten into Jose Ramirez, and how ‘real’ do you think this going forward into next season?

august fagerstrom: Always had a great approach. Just seems to be barreling the ball more consistently this year. Maybe he’s gotten stronger, maybe it’s a product of his approach, maybe it’s partially random distribution. He’s not this good. But he’s at least a league-average hitter who’s one of baseball’s best baserunners and can play anywhere on the diamond with at least average ability. A really useful player

senpaisanto:

august fagerstrom: excellent

LioneeR: In what situations should I look at k/9 and BB/9 vs K% and BB%.

august fagerstrom: there’s no situation where it’s better to look at the per nine stats rather than percentage

august fagerstrom: at least not that I can think of

august fagerstrom: K% and BB% are just the logical version of K/9 and BB/9, where it’s not randomly assumed that all pitchers face the same number of batters per inning

Ray: can we take a minute to imagine a Kevin Pillar that is even half decent with a bat, that would be a scary Kevin Pillar

august fagerstrom: you mean Kevin Kiermaier?

Tunnel Snakes Rule: Do you think relievers like Britton would generate more buzz for Cy Young if they could throw more innings like they would in the older days? Willie Hernandez won it in ’84 with only 32 saves and 140 IP, given he did have a sub 2.00 ERA

august fagerstrom: Of course

august fagerstrom: Though you’ve got to realize that more innings likely would reduce his performance in some way

august fagerstrom: Every team is striving for optimal usage

Maxamuz: How come I haven’t seen any NERD Game Scores for 5 days now?

august fagerstrom: Mr. Cistulli is on a leisure trip

Randy Savage: Nobody is talking about this being the last two months of Ryan Howard’s career.

august fagerstrom: probably because his career ended like 5 years ago

august fagerstrom: I’m sure he’ll get a writeup when it’s actually over

Erik: Has Maikel Franco been found out to be a fraud? Yes, he’s still young, but he’s now carried a 90 wRC+ for the better part of the year. Safe to say his ceiling is probably not much higher than a serviceable regular at this point, rather than the perennial all-star he looked to be trending towards last year?

august fagerstrom: Certainly not ready to write off that bat speed at 23

august fagerstrom: But, yeah. The shine has obviously dimmed significantly

august fagerstrom: Have a hard time not seeing an exciting ceiling, though

GSon: Mike Napoli has become that huge bat in the middle of the Indians lineup this season. Do the Indians try to extend him or would it be wise to offer the QO?…

august fagerstrom: I’d be wary of giving too much money/more than a year or two to a 35-year-old 1B/DH with a history of injury problems who was essentially unplayable a year prior

august fagerstrom: Particularly with Carlos Santana in the fold. Having two everyday 1B have already limited the Indians somewhat this year

august fagerstrom: Indians fans want to give him a lifetime extension. He’s been a saving grace for the 2015 club. I’m just not sure how much that changes what the future between the two should be

august fagerstrom: 2016 club!

august fagerstrom: It’s 2016

CamdenWarehouse: How do you know Harper isn’t presently Harper and it’s not 2015 that’s the anomaly?

august fagerstrom: well, he’s hurt

august fagerstrom: and 2015 happened, so based on that alone, I’d start my team with Harper

Matt: For Tulo’s HOF case – would you say his numbers are….too low?

august fagerstrom: booooooo

GSon: you have your choice to pick one of the two SS’s here.. which one do you want on your team Fransisco Lindor or Xander Bogaerts?..

GSon: and don’t say Correa

august fagerstrom: (Correa)

august fagerstrom: (Lindor)

Rick Roll: Does Mike Trout care that he’d have MVP awards if he was on a better team?

august fagerstrom: I’m sure it irks him but I’m also sure it’s far from his top concerns

Jose: Is this about what we expect from Kris Bryant for his career?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, this could be his peak-level production and I don’t think anyone would be disappointed

august fagerstrom: He could also be better. Not like a 160-170 wRC+ season would be unthinkable

Mike: Benitendi-Bradley-Betts or Marte-McCutchen-Polanco?

august fagerstrom: If I’m starting a team right now and service time/contracts, etc. are in play I’ll take Boston’s trio

Hank: If Robinson Cano has 3-4 more seasons like this one, is he in the conversation as the best 2B of all time and a sure fire HOF’er?

august fagerstrom: Well I’ll say that I reject the premise of assuming Cano will be a five-win player when he’s 37

august fagerstrom: But, yeah. If he puts up another 20+ WAR in his mid-to-late 30’s he’ll have a real strong HoF case. Wouldn’t make him Joe Morgan or Rogers Hornsby

august fagerstrom: Problem with that is, there’s plenty of guys in their early/mid-30’s who “if they put up another 20 WAR” would be Hall of Famers

august fagerstrom: That doesn’t really happen, though. Adrian Beltre is the exception, not the rule

Gabriel: Edwin Diaz will never start again right?

august fagerstrom: seems very doubtful

Guest: Why do people think guys who strike out a lot have higher bust potential? Like “if Joey Gallo doesn’t cut his strikeouts and he loses his power he is useless”. Isn’t that the same as saying if Billy Hamilton loses a step or Marin Prado stops hitting so many line drives he is useless?

august fagerstrom: Think it’s got more to do with Gallo’s one-dimensional nature as an all-bat player. Believe there’s also some studies that show high strikeout rates in the minors carry high MLB bust rates

Da Bum: Is Trea Turner essentially what everyone hoped Billy Hamilton would be? Speed is close and Turner can hit.

august fagerstrom: Could be! Obviously don’t expect a 130 wRC+ moving forward for Turner, but he could be a league-average hitter

august fagerstrom: or better

august fagerstrom: Hamilton’s also proven himself as one of baseball’s 10 or 5 most valuable defenders

august fagerstrom: Could make up a lot of the difference between the bats if Turner ends up just being a fringy SS or CF

Brian: How many trips to In-N-Out are planned for your trip? I would do a lot for a 2×2 Animal Style with a chocolate shake

august fagerstrom: had In-N-Out once and found it to be very mediocre. it’s not on the must-have list

august fagerstrom: I’ve had an insane amount of delicious food out here. Fast food burgers aren’t a top priortiy

Tyler: Weird question August but, what did you major in in college?

august fagerstrom: Applied communication with a focus in journalism

mike sixel: Is Mauer already a HoF player, or does he need more something?

august fagerstrom: Not a HoFer, the something he needs is for injuries/concussions to have not derailed his career at 30

august fagerstrom: 🙁

Hank: You know who was wildly underrated? Kenny Lofton and his 68.2 career WAR.

august fagerstrom: Don’t gotta tell me twice

august fagerstrom: Travesty that he was a first-year ballot casualty

Rick Roll: what are the guidelines for HOF voting? Is it something about being an ambassador of the game? And being dominant in your ERA?

august fagerstrom: aside from 10 years active/5 years retired: “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.”

august fagerstrom: open to interpretation/weighting

I’m not your buddy, Guyer: Zips & Steamer have Tyler Naquin at 3 HRs rest of season. Can he still win AL-ROY if he doesn’t exceed that projection?

august fagerstrom: Fulmer’s gonna make it real tough

Dock Ellis: Loved your Billy Hamilton article last week, but I was scared you were going to hurt your fingers with all the excitement you put into it! Are you the most injury prone writer at FG?

august fagerstrom: That’s very possible, which is concerning as I’m also the youngest

Dock Ellis: Just curious, what discs do you use when you play disc golf? Also, for or against the term “frolf”?

august fagerstrom: Have never used frolf. Innova/Discraft

CubbieBlues: Next year, Cubs are likely to lose Fowler and will probably lose Chapman, while Lester, Lackey and Zobrist will be another year older. The top prospects have mostly graduated. Going forward, is it safe to say that the Cubs look to be ‘pretty good’ rather than great?

august fagerstrom: A lot of teams will lose good players, and every team can also get new players, too. The Bryant/Rizzo/Arrieta core is great

august fagerstrom: Probably not worth spending too much time thinking about

Joe: If you, hypothetically, could arrange a team with Hamilton, Kiermaeir and Heyward in the OF, Simmons, Machado, Ahmed, and Goldschmidt as IF with a great catcher how much lower would the team ERA be than the team FIP?

august fagerstrom: sounds like another topic idea

august fagerstrom: writing these down. keep doing my job for me guys!!!

hydrant usage:

august fagerstrom: oh ho ho

Tondo: Thoughts on Yandy Diaz? Indians should add him soon to be postseason eligible, right?

august fagerstrom: Michael Martinez being in Cleveland and Yandy Diaz not being in Cleveland is bizarre

Rasta: Billy Hamilton has really been getting on base quite a bit lately. Obviously his .398 mark over the last 30 days isn’t the new norm but have his obp skills taken a step forward or has he just been lucky?

august fagerstrom: .407 BABIP obviously has a lot to do with that, but the spike in walk rate is worth monitoring

j6takish: Carson on a leisure trip? All of the other FG staff implies that his entire life is filled with leisure

august fagerstrom: he just takes more leisure trips than the average person, I think

Tondo: Will the Indians part with Andrew Miller or Cody Allen this offseason? I don’t see them paying both

august fagerstrom: Wouldn’t totally surprise me to see Allen’s arbitration raise price him out of the Indians plans

Red: Is there a regulation preventing the Red Sox from offering Ortiz a QO and netting a sandwich draft pick? Or does the player have to sign elsewhere for the pick to happen?

august fagerstrom: gotta sign

Justin: How good can Gregory Polanco be? Monster?

Greg P: Gregory Polanco is turning into a MONSTER

august fagerstrom: Justin, meet Greg. Greg, Justin

Da Bum: For next season and next season only, while assuming perfect health, you do you start your team with? Trout or Kershaw?

august fagerstrom: hitter

Mystery Team: If you had to pick one, would you rather have Stanton or rizzo? Feels like Stanton is hurt enough of the time to say rizzo, though it’s close

august fagerstrom: Rizzo’s just as good a hitter and doesn’t come with the injury history

august fagerstrom: Stanton’s only real advantage is defense, and Rizzo’s good for a first baseman

CubbieBlues: Toughest division for the next five years? It’s gotta be the NL Central, right?

august fagerstrom: gotta think so

Julio Pepper: Best 2B of all time…look up Joe Morgan’s player page. It’s eye popping.

august fagerstrom: yep

Uncle Leo: Should Rolen have just as good at chance at HOF as Beltre?

august fagerstrom: Nearly identical peaks. Beltre’s got way more longevity/cumulative stats, though

august fagerstrom: Think Rolen should get real consideration, maybe even should be in. Don’t think he gets in though. At the very least, he doesn’t have Beltre’s momentum

Tondo: Salazar-Naquin-Zimmer-F.Mejia for Trout ! Not enough?

august fagerstrom: Not nearly enough

Blah blah: If the season ended today who would you have winning each award: AL ROY, NL ROY, AL MVP, NL MVP, AL CY, NL CY

august fagerstrom: Fulmer, Seager, Trout, Bryant, Quintana, Kershaw

CamdenWarehouse: Turner’s speed is close to Hamilton’s?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, Turner might be the next-fastest guy in the majors. Been meaning to do a home-to-first comparison actually

august fagerstrom: maybe I’ll see if I can toss an IG up on this later today

njs: goeff jenkins was the one who looked like brett favre right?

august fagerstrom: shit, yeah

august fagerstrom: I guess he sort of did, didn’t he

august fagerstrom:

Mike: Whats the deal with the Indians continuing to play Naquin and Davis in CF now that Almonte, the guy who solidified CF defensively last year, is back?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure I agree that Almonte solidified CF defensively. Naquin always had a reputation as a stronger defender in the minors. Almonte takes realllly weird routes out there

august fagerstrom: I haven’t thought to question the alignment yet

Matt: Anti-“frolf” because it references, specific brand of disc, you enjoy your created words to have an entymalogical origin rather than just jamming two words together, or choice c that I can’t think of?

august fagerstrom: “disc golf” is fine for me

Da Bum: Watch much Olympics?

august fagerstrom: zero

Tondo: Follow up on Yandy Diaz: If you look at his minors age/level stats, he’s the closest thing to Matt Carpenter. Position flexibility and all

august fagerstrom: problem with that is Carpenter’s undergone massive and nearly unprecedented changes to get where he is now

august fagerstrom: tough to use a guy like Carpenter as a comp for anyone

Mike: Corey Seager is currently tied for the NL lead in fWAR. If the Dodgers win the division, what are the chances he wins the MVP?

august fagerstrom: pretty decent

Marc: Let’s say Mike Trout retired at the end of this season and never returned to the game. Is he a HoFer *right now*?

august fagerstrom: depends how it happened

august fagerstrom: if he just up and quit… no? I don’t think so? he’d need some sort of tragic career-ending injury/accident, which is awful to think of

Shane: Quintana Cy Young?? Isn’t a 4.07 xFIP concerning? What am I missing?

august fagerstrom: xFIP isn’t something that actually happens

Franklin Stubbs: Trout hasn’t played 10 years

august fagerstrom: right, yeah. this, too.

august fagerstrom: assuming that question was asked with suspended disbelief though

Maxamuz: No Kluber for CY?

august fagerstrom: as I wrote yesterday, it’s such an impossible question to answer right now with so little separation that I actually think a RP should be considered. Kluber’s right there, too. Quintana’s just the first name that comes to mind

august fagerstrom: Alright, y’all. thanks for hanging and chatting. gonna get to writing. thanks for the handful of you that gave me new topic ideas!

august fagerstrom: peace