The Reds Have a Raisel Iglesias Decision

Just six months ago, Raisel Iglesias was everyone’s favorite starting pitcher breakout candidate for 2016. The 26-year-old Cuban, signed for seven years and $27 million by the Cincinnati Reds in 2014, was coming off an impressive rookie campaign in which he struck out more than a quarter of all batters faced as a starter while exhibiting above-average command and a knack for getting ground balls, and he only got better as the year went on. Iglesias, alongside Anthony DeSclafani and John Lamb, was perhaps the most enticing pick of a trio of young Reds starters who have all provided us a painful reminder of the fickle and painful nature of choosing pitching as a profession.

DeSclafani spent the first two months of the season on the disabled list with a strained oblique. Lamb’s experienced decline across the board. And Iglesias hasn’t made a start since April, and last week earned his first career save.

Iglesias’ status update informs us of two important developments. The first being: everyone’s favorite starting pitcher breakout candidate for 2016 has been a reliever for the last two months. That’s disappointing, because fans want their exciting young starting pitchers to be start. The bullpen is rightly viewed as a downgrade. The fact that Iglesias earned a save, though, at least suggests that he’s been effective out of the bullpen, and effective might be an understatement. In 28 relief innings this season, Iglesias has allowed just two earned runs — good for a Britton-like 0.64 ERA — while striking out nearly 30% of the batters he’s faced.

The Reds made the switch in an effort to keep Iglesias healthy by limiting his workload, and also to provide stability to a bullpen that’s still among the worst the expansion era has ever seen. Thus far, Iglesias has thrived. He’s thrived, and beyond that, he’s expressed satisfaction with his new role. In early July, Iglesias told Cincinnati reporters through a translator that he “thinks [he doesn’t] want to go back and be a starter again” and that he wants to “start thinking about continuing [his] career as a closer.” Now, that time is here, and so the Reds have an interesting decision to make.

If it feels like we’ve been here before with Cincinatti, we have. We were here with Aroldis Chapman six years ago, which makes Reds fans who still haven’t gotten over the decision to make him a reliever shudder at the thought of it happening again with Iglesias. We were here with Tony Cingrani. On a smaller if not more recent level, we were here with Michael Lorenzen.

There’s a few key questions to ask when pondering whether to make the permanent switch from starter to reliever, and the Reds have asked them before. There’s not going to be a definitive answer here, but we can ask them again.

Question No. 1: Durability

Iglesias dealt with fatigue in his throwing shoulder near the end of last year, and an impingement in that same shoulder is what kept him out through much of the first two months of the season. Iglesias’ in-season is health is much of what necessitated the move to the bullpen in the first place, but the thing is, the durability concerns date back further than Iglesias’ shoulder issues.

From our own Eric Longenhagen’s scouting report on Iglesias in 2014, before his MLB debut:

“Whether he can sustain plus or better velocity for the duration of a start and/or duration of a season as a starter is debatable … My issue with Iglesias’ chances to start stem from the way he uses, or rather doesn’t use, his lower half. He’s very rotational, swiveling his body around east and west instead of driving off of his back foot and finishing out over his front leg. As such, Iglesias’ delivery is very dependent on his arm and his arm alone to generate that meal ticket velocity and it’s hard for me to see that holding water for 180+ innings annually.”

Iglesias and his wire-thin frame “screamed reliever, albeit a good one” to Longehagen in 2014, and of course, Iglesias was primarily used as a reliever in Cuba before signing with the Reds, who were one of the few teams to view him as a starter.

And then there’s this:

That’s Iglesias’ average fastball velocity, broken down by times through the order. Scouts were skeptical about Iglesias’ ability to hold up over the course of a full season. He hasn’t yet shown the ability to hold up over the course of a game. Score one for “move to bullpen.”

Question No. 2: Arsenal

Beyond durability, the other driving factor behind most starter-to-reliever transitions is lack of an effective third pitch. Longenhagen’s scouting report noted a plus slider, which Iglesias has thrown 30% of the time in the majors, but included below-average grades on both the curveball and changeup. The curve didn’t make its way to the bigs, but the changeup has shown well-above average ground ball rates over the last two years with average whiff rates. It’s been Iglesias’ worst pitch by results, and he’s shown a decently-sized platoon split, but the .720 OPS against the change is far from damning, and he’s continued throwing it even after his move to the bullpen, indicating that he and the Reds’ staff maintain some confidence in the pitch. Score one for “stick as a starter,” mostly.

Question No. 3: Upside

This is the one that makes it so hard to pull the trigger on that switch to the bullpen, no matter who’s involved. The upside for a starter can just be so greater than the upside for a reliever. And even with the trouble holding velocity and the potential platoon split issues, whether due to an inconsistent changeup or Iglesias’ sidearm release point, he’s been nothing but effective as a starter. The very best argument for keeping Iglesias in the rotation might be this:

K-BB% as a starter, 2015-16

• Raisel Iglesias, 26.2 K%, 6.8 BB%, 19.4 K-BB%
• Jake Arrieta, 26.3 K%, 6.8 BB%, 19.5 K-BB%

Of course, there’s plenty more to pitching that makes Arrieta worlds better than Iglesias, but there’s nothing easier to dream on than strikeouts and walks, and Iglesias as a starter has posted the kind of strikeout and walk figures that make it real easy to dream.

And so here we are. What it boils down to, really, is the durability. Raisel Iglesias was previously a reliever, he’s looked the part of a reliever, and now he might be back to square one. It’s easy to wonder what a bulked-up Iglesias with cleaner mechanics might look like, but despite his relative inexperience, he’s already 26, and it’s not like no one’s thought about ways to increase the durability. This is one of those cases where it’s tough to put forth a definitive answer from the outside, because so much of it has to do with what the organization knows about Iglesias, his arm, and his body.

Almost certainly, Iglesias has got what it takes to be a great reliever, and lord knows the Reds could use a weapon or two out of that bullpen. Problem is, he could have what it takes to be a good starter, too. Not the worst problem to have. Still stings to be wrong.