August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 8/23/16

august fagerstrom: I am here!

august fagerstrom: Let’s chat!

august fagerstrom: This week’s soundtrack, is of course, all the new Frank Ocean material

august fagerstrom: All of it is great. I’m actually partial to Endless right now, though Blond is growing on me. Interested to hear y’alls thoughts

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hello, Bork!

Bork: I’m off to the OB with Borkwife to see how Bork Jr is doing. HOPE YOU ENJOY YOUR BORKLESS CHAT

august fagerstrom: Goodbye, Bork!

CamdenWarehouse: Is it time to acknowledge the Zunino in the room?

august fagerstrom: It is! That plate discipline is fascinating, and with how valuable of a defensive catcher he is, the floor for his bat was/is so low for him to be a contributor. He looks like he could be there. Believe Sullivan is writing this up very soon.

Ember: How awesome is Gary Sanchez?

august fagerstrom: Sure has been awesome so far! Believe *I’ll* be writing *this* one up very soon.

Cubs Fan: Kris Bryant’s tearing the cover off the ball right now, so I have to ask- 1) what fWAR do you think he finishes at this year? and 2) what’s his peak? You would think it would be this, but his trajectory the last four years has been College MVP, MiLB MVP, RoY, and then likely NL MVP. When does he stop?

august fagerstrom: WS MVP? I guess? That’s the only other MVP there is to win

august fagerstrom: We’re probably seeing his peak right now, which is: settling in as an 7-8 WAR regular for a handful of years. AKA, the start to what could be a Hall of Fame career. He could break 8 wins this year

jon: Cubs BABIP suppression update: .254 BABIP against, .297 league average, 86 BABIP-. The record is in sight.

august fagerstrom: Yep! Been monitoring this. Remarkable

CamdenWarehouse: Is Edwin Encarnacion’s career really strange? slightly above average offensively through age 28 and then beginning with age 29 for at least 5 years he produces in the top tier with the bat.

august fagerstrom: It’s Jose Bautista’s career path, with the breakout coming two seasons later

j6takish: I would attend a fangraphs chat hosted by Bork. I trust that the Dave’s would screen him to make sure he is an interesting guy. I would also attend a Cistulli chat but I think I’m the only one who would welcome that

august fagerstrom: Cistulli chats are great

august fagerstrom: Both ones hosted over the internet, and also the ones conducted in person

GERB: Jose Ramirez’s chances of breaking the all time record for crossing home without a helmet on?

GERB: https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSvjM_xA-8spBEJZyKMNKf-GO6a9TlFll2sTxKWclkbYOwC9AoRMA

GERB: Every Time

august fagerstrom: It’s possible he’s already broken it

Jim Lonborg: What is the Red Sox’s best outfield alignment? Seems like they have three center fielders, not that that’s necessarily a bad thing, as Benintendi demonstrated last night.

august fagerstrom: I’ve no real reason to believe the current default alignment (LF-Benintendi, CF-Bradley, RF-Betts) isn’t the optimal one

Bo: Can you help me understand the difference between command and control? They just seem like two parts of the same scale of ability to locate pitches. Presumably you couldn’t have command but not control? Is the only reason we treat them as separate to broaden the range of terms we have to discuss the ability to throw pitches where you intend?

august fagerstrom: The way it’s commonly conveyed is: control is simply the ability to put the ball over the plate. Command is the ability to actually hit a spot.

august fagerstrom: Using those definitions, one can have control without command, but not really the other way around. I think of someone like Joe Blanton as having control, but not command

august fagerstrom: Blanton never walked anyone. But he also never executed enough pitches (whether it be elevated, on the edges, in the dirt, whatever) to consistently retire batters without putting pitches right over the middle and giving up homers

august fagerstrom: Control wasn’t Joe Blanton’s problem. Command was.

august fagerstrom: And probably a general lack of “stuff”

Jeremy: A Jays/Rangers playoff series would be the most exciting playoff matchup since_______

august fagerstrom: Jays/Rangers 2015?

david bowie and bing crosby: August: the O’s have placed Wieters on waivers and he’s cleared. Does this signal that a trade is close at hand and what team would want him given that he’d be a six week rental (not including playoffs)? Also: why would the O’s trade him if they can get compensation for him after the season? (Unless they got a decent SP which seems improbable.) I don’t understand this. Thx.

august fagerstrom: No, it doesn’t signal anything, really. Tons of guys get placed on waivers and pass with nothing happening. It’s a formality, mostly

Jack: Is there anyway corey seager gets into the MVP conversation. He has a slash line of 320/375/531 with an ISO of 219, a wRC+ of 146, and worth 6.5 WAR

august fagerstrom: Yeah, he’s absolutely in the conversation, if he’s not the frontrunner

august fagerstrom: He’s put up nearly identical offensive numbers to Bryant while playing a more challenging defensive position. Both play for playoff teams.

august fagerstrom: Seager has the higher WPA, the higher RE24

Ryan schimpf fan: Ryan Schimpf?!?! Talk about him.

august fagerstrom: Craig Edwards talked about him a whole bunch last month! http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-post-that-ryan-schimpf-made-necessary/

Mike Foltynewicz: Nice article about Aaron Sanchez’s sinker yesterday. Did you know that the velocity and movement on my sinker is almost identical to Aaron Sanchez’s? Where’s my article?

august fagerstrom: I did notice that actually!

august fagerstrom: It’s been written down

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Scott Podsednik, Christian Guzman, Victor Zambrano, Royce Clayton, Guillermo Mota

august fagerstrom: Triples king Cristian Guzman!

august fagerstrom: And Mike Piazza-hater Guillermo Mota!

august fagerstrom: and unlikely World Series hero Scott Podsednik!

august fagerstrom: That’s a solid batch.

Q-Ball: I refuse to believe the D-Backs front office is as dumb as Keith Law says. Right? Or is it really possible?

august fagerstrom: The evidence is all there for tou

august fagerstrom: you*

august fagerstrom: Sorry for slow chat this week btw, guys. Dealing with maintenance in my apartment. Will try to go longer to make up for it

Max: Given that at Coors (and other high altitude parks), the thin air kills movement on pitches, do you think there’s a particular type of pitcher that’s going to really struggle at Coors? Would someone like Rich Hill who relies so heavily on a curve and a rising fastball get killed?

august fagerstrom: There was talk this offseason that the new strategy was fastball-reliant guys to avoid this. Acquisitions of Jake McGee and Jason Motte signified the Rockies might be attempting this. I still like this theory

august fagerstrom: Obviously gonna need more time to see whether a) it’s actually an organizational philosophy and/or b) it works, but it makes more sense, on the surface, than some of the other ideas that have been floated/attempted

Q-Ball: Apparently Tony LaRussa is alot more familiar with the unwritten rules of baseball than the written ones….

august fagerstrom: heyo!

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How’s the shoulder holding up?

august fagerstrom: Both are feeling better! Thanks for asking. I’m not in constant pain like I was for a couple weeks. Yesterday marked 30 days away from my upcoming surgery. Just looking forward to getting it done and getting the rehab process underway

august fagerstrom: Not being able to do physical stuff is absolutely killing me

Kristen: Is TEX in trouble? Between Perez, Holland, Griffin and Colby Lewis, I don’t see a single SP capable of being a #3. And why can’t they develop SP’s?

august fagerstrom: There’s been a serious injury problem in Texas for a decade-plus. No idea why, but that can’t be good for pitcher development

august fagerstrom: As far as the rotation, the lack of depth is concerning, but every team in the AL has its flaw. The position player group is great, the top two starting pitchers are close to as good as it gets, and the bullpen is solid

august fagerstrom: I like the Rangers chances of coming out of the AL as much as anyone, even if you’re holding your breath for the first five innings of games three and four

Jeremy: Today’s Knuckleball ran a piece today basically saying it’s too early to dismiss Stewart, Watson, LaRussa, etc. because of injuries and lack of time in the positions. This in contrast to Dave’s article yesterday essentially calling for their dismissal. Your thoughts?

august fagerstrom: I think Dave’s article was very concise in shooting down that line of thinking

the process: bryant wasn’t little league mvp thus he’s a chump!

august fagerstrom: I’d be absolutely shocked if he wasn’t

Steve: Jameson Taillon is second behind Kershaw among SP in K/BB. In a Seagerless world would he be the NL Rookie of the Year?

august fagerstrom: Not with so few innings, I don’t think. Story, Diaz, Maeda, Matz, Gray, Oh all likely have stronger cases

Uncle Leo: Is there anyone right now (Kiermaier??) on prime Andruw Jones’ level as a defensive CF? The stats from his early years are ridiculous.

august fagerstrom: Tough to compare guys defensively across different eras of defensive metrics (tough to compare them even now), but it’s hard for anyone to envision anyone being much better out there than Kiermaier and Pillar currently are. They’re in the same tier at least, I think

Luke: Bottom of the ninth with a one run lead who do you rather have on the mound: Andrew Miller or Zach Britton?

august fagerstrom: Depends a lot on what my infield looks like

august fagerstrom: Even with how real Britton’s hit-suppression skills appear to be, I’ll take the guy pushing 50% strikeouts

august fagerstrom: The inning Miller threw against the A’s last night was jaw-dropping

London Tribe: If indeed the Dodgers are looking to part company with Puig, would the Indians be interested? Seems like a good fit, but it would presumably depend on how much the Dodgers would be asking. Seems like a trademark buy-low Tribe candidate though.

august fagerstrom: I don’t think anyone can reasonably say whether Team X or Y would be interested in Puig. On paper, he makes perfect sense as a fit for the Indians. Puig’s particular situation goes so far beyond paper, though.

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: So, August, any way for you to get a message to Lindor regarding his swing path? If he had another few degrees of loft, he might legitimately hit .400 instead of grounding into 20 DPs a year. And how great is he that his top-10 league WAR seems like he is leaving some hitting on the table?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sold that he’s leaving much hitting on the table. He’s still outperforming his projections

august fagerstrom: The projections are admittedly probably a bit low, as we’ve probably got enough evidence to support the claim that he’s changed fundamentally as a hitter since breaking into the bigs, therefore discounting the weight of his minor league numbers some, but his true-talent level being around the 115 wRC+ he’s at now doesn’t seem so far-fetched

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Orlando Arcia has been underwhelming in his MLB stint so far. Certainly, he’s young, and there are SSS issues in play, but is it better for his development to let him plunk around and figure out MLB pitching while on a low expectation team, does he need more time at AAA? When is one more appropriate than the other, does the team’s level of pressure/expectations dictate it?

august fagerstrom: Man, he’s had 77 plate appearances

august fagerstrom: He’s 21

august fagerstrom: Remember when Alex Bregman was a bust two weeks ago?

Jared: What are your thoughts on what the jays are doing with Sanchez? Which camp are you in.. limit a guys innings to prevent injury or let him throw and believe it will make him better in the long run because his arm will get used to the work.

august fagerstrom: It’s different in every case, and each team has loads of medical information on guys that we don’t have that makes their decisions far more informed than ours could ever be, so who are we to really say?

august fagerstrom: Generally, I’m more sympathetic toward the latter view. But tough to argue with what the team does. So many hours and so much information went into their decision

Erik: As a baseball fan and also decent human being, should I be worried that the Yankees will go right back to being good next year? It seems only just that Yankee fans endure their fair share of misery between powerhouse teams, but it looks like that may not happen.

august fagerstrom: It wouldn’t surprise me to see them be good next year, no

Q-Ball: In terms of COMMAND, is Kyle Hendricks tops in baseball? There’s no other way to explain what he’s doing with middling stuff

august fagerstrom: Tops? Almost certainly not. And impossible to say. It sure seems he possesses excellent command

august fagerstrom: I’m also not sure sure that middling stuff describes what Hendricks has. Stuff is not = to velocity. There’s still good life on that fastball

Nick: Did you bite the bullet and subscribe to Apple Music for the new Frank Ocean music? I really want to hear it, but I already subscribe to Spotify, and it would be a pain to pay for more than one music subscription service.

august fagerstrom: I guess I already have it? Idk

august fagerstrom: It’s worked for me

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Sporcle taught me today that Chase Utley had a nearly 60 WAR stretch from ’05-’14. I had no idea he was that good for that long – is he HOF material, or does he miss out because so many other good players will take up the limited amount of votes?

august fagerstrom: If he’s on the ballot 10 years from now when I get my vote, I will likely be writing his name down

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How many holes have you aced in disc golf in your lifetime?

august fagerstrom: zero

august fagerstrom: I have also not been playing disc golf for very long

KJ: How would you describe Joey Votto since the all-star break? Does he have the most advanced approach at the plate?

august fagerstrom: I would describe him as Joey Votto, max

august fagerstrom: And to the latter question: yeah. Just, yeah.

Josh: FYI, Joe Blanton is the Dodgers’ primary setup man and has been by far their second best and second most consistent RP

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I was referring to starter Joe Blanton. That guy died. Reliever Joe Blanton is an entirely different human with entirely different DNA

Zonk: Say something nice about the Angels, without mentioning Mike Trout

august fagerstrom: asking the tough questions I see

hated ape: hi August — not sure if you can answer this. how often does Fangraphs’ defensive data update? For instance, if I look at DEF on a player page, it stays the same for a while and then one day changes. Can you shed any light?

august fagerstrom: once a week! can’t remember which day!

Nick: Corey Seager is behind only Crawford and Lindor in shortstop defensive value this year. When he was coming up as a prospect a common opinion was that he wouldn’t be able to handle the position. Is this a fluke? Is he good at defense?

august fagerstrom: I think it’s still too early to tell, though I think it’s fair to be more encouraged now than we all were a year ago. That being said, he still has a very unconventional body type for shortstop, so it’s still fair to wonder how gracefully that ages, which I believe was the root of most skepticism to begin with

Jack: Who is your Favorite to win the Cy Young this year? I feel like 6 different guys have a chance

august fagerstrom: My gut tells me that by the end of the year, I’ll feel that a White Sox pitcher is most deserving, but that Kluber ends up winning it

CamdenWarehouse: Troy Glaus’s 2000 season was awesome. Like really awesome. And he didn’t receive a single MVP vote. It makes me wonder what the best seasons were that received zero MVP consideration.

august fagerstrom: Someone has to have written this article

august fagerstrom: If not, I promise to write it in the offseason

august fagerstrom: or at award time

JP: Giants since the ASB have been terrible…once 8 games up in the division, they are now trying to hang on to a WC spot. O/U on their current playoff odds? (81.6%)

august fagerstrom: These two sentences seem to be in disagreement with one another. I certainly would not classify a team with a >80% chance of making the playoffs as “trying to hang onto a WC spot”

august fagerstrom: The Giants will very likely play in the postseason

Tony: Do you think the Rockies will ever find the correct recipe to develop Coors proof pitching? Or is baseball doomed to fail in high altitudes?

august fagerstrom: I certainly have my doubts

Jack: Jerad Eickhoff is a Texas Farmhand who is a #3

august fagerstrom: There ya go, Kristen! They did it!

TKDC: Someone did write the article. It was Roberto Clemente in 1968 or Lefty Grove in 1937 if you count pitchers.

august fagerstrom: Excellent! Do you have a link?

A cat: The Red Sox bullpen woes should be mitigated in the playoffs when two of Wright, Buchholz, Pomeranz and Rodriguez are dropped from the rotation. Any two of those could be the seventh and eighth inning setup guys over what they have now.

august fagerstrom: you heard it here first, guys!

CapnZippers: With Matz now hitting the DL, the Mets have lost Cespedes, Harvey, Wheeler (kinda cheating on this one), D’Arnaud, Duda, Cabrera, Wright, Lagares, Reyes and Henderson for significant periods of time (and there was chatter that they mismanaged Conforto’s wrist — Shocker!) First though, GOOD LORD this team has lost a lot of games to injury! Second thought, how is possible that management hasn’t looked towards the teams conditioning program as a problem?

august fagerstrom: How do we know they haven’t?

august fagerstrom: I’m quite sure it hasn’t gone unnoticed within the Mets’ FO that plenty of their guys have been hurt

august fagerstrom: It’s also very possible that they could look into it and determine that it’s a fluke! Injury seasons happen

Tom: Sandy Leon is 5th in WAR for catchers. Any thoughts?

august fagerstrom: my thoughts:

Chris K.: Sandy Leon: WTF??? No, really. WTF???

Pete: True or false: Roberto Perez is a good reminder that computer projections are smarter than we gullible humans and our narratives that explain away inconvenient stuff.

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure if this is referring to something I’ve said in the past, which is that Perez is one of the rare cases where I (mostly) disregarded the projections due to the fact that Perez played an entire AAA season with Bell’s palsy, but if that’s the case, I still stand by it. That was an absolute freak occurrence. That being said, Perez has been truly terrible this year, but I’d still take his RoS projection being closer to his career MLB numbers (83 wRC+) than his projected numbers (67 wRC+)

Cubbies: OT….Forgot to mention this in your last chat. My last name is July. Once dated a gal with a first name June. You ever date anyone with a month for a first or last name?

august fagerstrom: I have not!

august fagerstrom: It’s a shame that “June July” never came to frutition

august fagerstrom: Or maybe not

Moelicious: Is your Dad here today?

august fagerstrom: Doesn’t appear to be

TKDC: http://seamheads.com/baseballgauge/blog/?p=225

august fagerstrom: Here’s the best seasons without an MVP vote article, Camden!

august fagerstrom: Thanks for that, TKDC

august fagerstrom: Glaus comes in fifth among position players, looks like

Mike T.: August, what do you think scouts are going to see when Tebow performs for them?

august fagerstrom: a football player

Bill: I wish “at-bat” meant “plate appearance.” These days we use PA more, but “at-bat” is so much nicer to say.

august fagerstrom: agreed

Snowflake: I’m a Yankees fan. I swear I’d never heard the name Jon Lieber until I learned he led the 2004 team in pitcher WAR the other day. I think I just blocked out that year. Who the fuck is Jon Lieber?

august fagerstrom: production on “Who the fuck is Jon Lieber?” shirts to begin post haste

Pete: I promise that Roberto Perez question wasn’t directed at anything specific you ever said. He just happened to have one of the more believable narratives.

august fagerstrom: Ah. I think it’d be a fair criticism, either way

august fagerstrom: I think in most cases, we should succumb to the fact that the computers are smarter than us. In that case, where a non-injury physically affected his ability to perform for several hundred plate appearances, I’m sympathetic to the idea of throwing the data out the window, which the projections of course cannot do

Vince Clortho: Is this a young person chat? Jon Lieber was really good for a while! I’m only 37, damn you Time

august fagerstrom: FWIW, I’m 25 and remember Jon Lieber very clearly. I’m not sure how Snowflake missed him, though he was in NY for just one year, so it’s not entirely indefensible

august fagerstrom: Alright y’all, I know I said I’d go long, but the queue is starting to dry up and I’ve actually gotta jet. Thanks for chatting and reading!

august fagerstrom: Until next week…