The Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the best stories of the season’s first half. They were picked by virtually no one to win the National League Central, and though it’s far too early for any hardware to be awarded, there are reasons galore for the club’s success to date. The team is exceptionally strong up the middle, offensively and defensively, thanks to the cost-controlled group of Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura, Scooter Gennett and Carlos Gomez. Their lineup is balanced and strong, with five players between 11 and 14 home runs and between 40 RBI and 49 RBI entering Monday night’s action. They also are quite athletic, with above-average team speed and defense; plus the bullpen has been effective all season. Their stealth strength, though, just might be their healthy, durable starting rotation that has a very good chance to boast five ERA qualifiers this season — a trait that’s much more central to winning than you might think. Read the rest of this entry »

If you could build a prototypical pitcher, what would he be? The scout in you might emphasize size, physical projection, raw stuff, athleticism, endurance, and what the heck, let’s make him lefthanded. The analyst in you might focus on bat-missing ability, batted-ball mix and ability to manage contact. If you were lucky enough, and this pitching prototype turned out be everything you wanted, he might be as good as Clayton Kershaw. Every era has its greats, its true pitching giants, and this one is no exception. With apologies to Felix Hernandez, his closest competition, the current big man on campus is Mr. Kershaw. Read the rest of this entry »

Of the many new statistics brought into play by the so-called sabermetric revolution, FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, for the uninitiated) has arguably gained the most mainstream traction. Virtually everyone these days accepts the limitations of the ERA statistic, and appreciate the fact that FIP attempts to credit the pitcher for the outcomes which he truly controls, while trying to weed out the vagaries of context. This just in, though – FIP is far from perfect itself. Case in point – Chris Young, the NBA-sized righty now plying his trade for the Seattle Mariners, currently possesses a 3.15 ERA…..and a 5.00 FIP. Even this deep into the season, we’re accustomed to seeing pitchers with sizeable ERA/FIP disparities, but a 1.85 difference is beyond the pale. What on earth is going on here? Read the rest of this entry »

For all of the natural ebbs and flows of individual player performance, the game’s ruling class — the elite of the elite — is a fairly closed society that remains fairly static from year to year. Any given season might have its Yasiel Puig breaking through, or its Albert Pujols conceding his seat. But the core membership is fairly predictable. What might happen in any given year, though, is one of these elite players taking a temporary step up in class‚ reaching an even more rarified air than before. Over the past two weeks, we’ve taken a deeper look at the 2014 performances of some of the game’s elite and determined whether they have taken things to the next level. Today: Jose Bautista.

Jose Bautista’s path to greatness has been far from traditional. Any list of the game’s greats will turn up players who were once selected in the Rule 5 draft, purchased for cash, claimed on waivers, or traded multiple times, often for non-entities. Each and every one of these scenarios, believe it or not, apply to Bautista. A 20th round draft and follow selection in 2000 by the Pirates, Bautista was selected by the Orioles in the Rule 5 draft at the 2003 winter meetings. Less than six months later, Tampa Bay claimed him on waivers from the Orioles, only to sell him to the Royals less than a month later. He was then traded twice on the same day a month later, just before the 2004 trading deadline, winding up in Pittsburgh.

He was given every chance to succeed over three and a half seasons in the Pirates’ organization, before being moved along one last time, to the Blue Jays in exchange for catching prospect Robinzon Diaz. Yes, Bautista had showed a lot of promise with the bat, especially in the minor leagues, but no, absolutely no one saw what was coming next at the major league level with the Blue Jays.

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For all of the natural ebbs and flows of individual player performance from year to year, the game’s ruling class – the elite among the elite, the upper crust – is a fairly closed society that remains fairly static from year to year. Any given year might have its Yasiel Puig joining that group, or its Albert Pujols conceding his seat, but the core membership is fairly predictable. What might happen in any given season, however, is one of these elite players taking a temporary step up in class, reaching an even more rarified air than ever before. Let’s continue to take a deeper look at the 2014 performance of some of the game’s elite, and determine whether they in fact have taken things to the next level. Today, Tim Hudson.

Your first thought might be, Tim Hudson – elite? A brief perusal of his career numbers might be in order. Does 212-114, 3.41, career ERA+ of 124 grab you? His 2013 season (8-7, 3.97) might not look so hot on the surface, but his FIP was over a half-run lower, and his cumulative record in his three previous seasons with the Braves was 49-26. Wins and losses are obviously far from the only or preferred way to evaluate a starting pitcher, but Hudson sure has had a knack for winning – and not losing – throughout his career. 16 years in the big leagues, 11 times as an ERA qualifier, and he has reached double digits in losses exactly three times, and has a career high loss total of 12. He’s played on a lot of good teams, true, but he has played a large role in making those teams good.

Hudson was a 6th round draft pick out of Auburn in 1997, and was just as well known for his bat as his arm as an amateur. John Poloni, who was unfairly negatively singled out in the “Moneyball” book, believed in him as a pitcher and pushed hard for his selection. Depending on how things play out following Hudson’s career, Poloni just might be responsible for signing a Hall of Famer for a relative pittance.

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For all of the natural ebbs and flows of individual player performance, the game’s ruling class — the elite of the elite — is a fairly closed society that remains fairly static from year to year. Any given season might have its Yasiel Puig, or its Albert Pujols conceding his seat. But the core membership is fairly predictable. What might happen in any given year, though, is one of these elite players taking a temporary step up in class ‚ reaching an even more rarified air than before. This week, let’s take a deeper look at the 2014 performance of some of the game’s elite and determine whether they have taken things to the next level. Today: Giancarlo Stanton.

Stanton has hit for big power since he arrived on the major-league scene in 2010 at age 20, after decimating the minor leagues to the tune of a .272-.365-.565 line, with 91 homers in 1,226 at bats. Some guys gradually grow into their power, but not Stanton. At the major-league level it’s been more of the same, with Stanton posting a career .270-.359-.542 line despite playing his home games in one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in the majors.

Based on my own park factors, which were calculated utilizing granular batted ball data, Marlins Park was the third most pitcher-friendly park in MLB last season, with an overall park factor of 90.2. It was the fifth most pitcher-friendly park with regard to fly balls (76.1) and eighth most with regard to line drives (96.2). It had a home run park factor of 68, dead last among MLB parks. Does this affect Mr. Stanton? Well, no, as most of his home runs would leave Yellowstone with room to spare.

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For all of the natural ebbs and flows of individual player performance from year to year, the game’s ruling class – the elite among the elite, the upper crust – is a fairly closed society that remains fairly static from year to year. Any given year might have its Yasiel Puig joining that group, or its Albert Pujols conceding his seat, but the core membership is fairly predictable. What might happen in any given season, however, is one of these elite players taking a temporary step up in class, reaching an even more rarified air than ever before. This week, let’s take a deeper look at the 2014 performance of some of the game’s elite, and determine whether they in fact have taken things to the next level. Today, Felix Hernandez. Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, we took a look at the thought process of a club that opened the season with thoughts of contention might go through when deciding whether to shift gears and sell off assets. Today, let’s take a look some of the organizational processes that lead up to the final product – a significant deal that helps set such a club up for the future. Read the rest of this entry »

The draft is now behind us and the summer will soon be in full swing. For more than two-thirds of the population of baseball clubs, participation in a pennant race is currently a legitimate consideration, thanks both to general parity and the presence of a second wild card club in both leagues. What about the other teams? Some, like the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs, likely suspected that this would be their fate, and likely long ago put summer roster management plans in place. Others, however, like the Tampa Bay Rays and – in their minds, at least – the Philadelphia Phillies expected to contend, and now find their reality to be much different. How might the summer progress for unexpected sellers such as these? Read the rest of this entry »

Today, one of the key events on the baseball calendar takes place: the annual Rule 4 draft. Yup, that’s what it’s technically called, but it’s better known as the amateur draft, with 1,200 high school, college and junior college players hearing their names called over the three days of proceedings. Unlike the football and basketball drafts, the baseball version takes place a bit under the radar, with all but the most hardcore fans unfamiliar with the vast majority of the draftable players.

This is understandable, as all but the rarest of exceptions among players are not seen at the major league level for a while, unlike the instant gratification of the football and basketball drafts. This isn’t to say that the events of later this week aren’t vital to the short, intermediate and long-term future of all 30 clubs. On the contrary; the draft remains the cheapest way to turn a club around, though it does take time. There is a lot of player-specific draft content around this week, so let’s take a different tack and look at the process, the people involved – the who’s, what’s and where’s surrounding the baseball draft. Last time, we looked at the process from the very beginning through the end of the spring season. This time, we pick it up as the clubs enter their respective draft rooms. Read the rest of this entry »