Chances are that if you are fortunate enough to watch baseball games with a hardcore fan of an older generation, you hear complaints about the way baseball is played today compared to the “good old days”. Even with the draining of offense from the game over the past decade for obvious reasons, it does seem that almost every lineup is littered with power-focused, swing-and-miss types. One-run strategies are utilized less often, and speed seems to be less emphasized than in the past. Some of this is due to the game’s natural evolution, and a result of the encroachment of analysis into the game’s fabric.

An honest analyst with some scouting chops must realize that speed and athleticism are often at the core of the aspects of the game that are hardest to objectively measure, among them defense and baserunning. How much of the offensive and defensive impact of some of today’s fastest players is attributable to their speed? In light of some of the resulting answers to that questions, what is the Reds’ chance of success with their current Billy Hamilton experiment? Let’s use some batted-ball data to make some conclusions. Read the rest of this entry »

(Note: The 2014 numbers below do not include yesterday’s performances.)

It’s still April, and the sample sizes are still small, so it’s important not to overreact to early season performances, both positive and negative. Still, we have passed the eighth pole, and it’s not too early to peel back a layer or two of batted-ball data and identify a few players whose early season slumps may be about to cross the line toward becoming somewhat significant trends possibly indicative of a change in true talent level. Read the rest of this entry »

Fairly early in life, I’d venture to guess that many of us learned to play basic card games, from poker to rummy to blackjack. These games were often learned at home from parents or other older relatives, in a family bonding type of setting. At an early stage in this process, someone likely sat us down and handed down some helpful hints as to how to play the game well – if the dealer is showing a face card in blackjack, for instance, it might make sense to take another card – a hit – if you are holding 16, otherwise a scenario in which you would almost never take another card. Playing the game thusly doesn’t mean you’re always going to win, of course – it simply tilts the odds ever so slightly in your direction.

Whether you’re playing bridge, Scrabble, Monopoly or Trivial Pursuit, there are “little things” you can do within the rules that enhance your chances of winning. It’s called game theory, and understanding it is vital to success in any endeavor that includes an element of chance. Odds are that utilization of data has become more commonplace in your workplace, and is integral to the management of businesses of all types. For some reason, despite the proliferation of data and its increased usage in baseball today, basic tenets of game theory continue to go unheeded by managers/organizations, and unnoticed by announcers/traditional media/bloggers. Case in point – this past weekend’s Mariners-Marlins series. Read the rest of this entry »

There are a couple of very broad ways for pitchers to keep the opposition off of the scoreboard. One is to impose your will, maximizing K’s and minimizing BB’s – in most cases, pitchers excelling in those areas possess obvious, in-your-face tools and skills that are very easy to see. The other way is much more subtle – to manage contact, optimizing the batted-ball mix allowed and minimizing the authority with which the ball is impacted. Sometimes, pitchers more skilled in this area fly beneath the radar a bit compared to their more dominant counterparts. If you can accomplish both, however, you’ve got something. Based on the very early returns of the 2014 season, the Oakland A’s might have something. Read the rest of this entry »

The big righthander reared back and fired one last time, and Dodger catcher John Roseboro popped it up to shortstop Luis Aparicio to cap a 6-0, four-hit complete-game shutout, giving the Orioles a 2-0 lead in the 1966 World Series that they would go on to sweep. It was an eclectic Series game to be sure – it marked Sandy Koufax‘ last major league appearance, and was marked – you might say defaced – by an amazing six Dodger errors, including an incredible three by center fielder Willie Davis. Perhaps most notable, however, was the identity of the pitcher who tossed the shutout.

At age 20, Jim Palmer had now truly arrived, following up a 15-win regular season with this heroic effort. The future could not appear brighter for a kid who, unbeknownst to anyone at the time, would pitch all of 49 major league innings over the next two seasons due to a serious shoulder injury. Why is any of this relevant? Because this is as close as anything in baseball history to a successful precedent for the comeback currently being attempted by the Yankees’ Michael Pineda. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re just over a week into the regular season, and many baseball memories – positive and negative – have been inserted into the history books. Ryan Braun‘s three-homer game, Emilio Bonifacio‘s rapid-fire succession of BABIP singles, Tim Hudson’s sensational Giants’ debut, a bunch of aces being aces, and the Mets/Phillies/Angels, etc.., bullpen implosions – just another week in paradise. While individual player statistical sample sizes are still way too small to draw meaningful conclusions, team totals are already ramping up, allowing us to make some somewhat informed judgments regarding what may be in store for some clubs the rest of the way. Read the rest of this entry »

On the morning after the opening game of the season, the first Australia game between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, I had a phone conversation with a scouting friend. The first thing out of both our mouths was basically the same – “Did you see Kershaw? 88 MPH! Didn’t look comfortable on the mound. Seemed to be laboring, etc., etc., etc..” Clayton Kershaw most certainly did not look like himself that day, and now will not likely pitch until May due to an upper back injury. While this may – hopefully – turn out to be nothing more than a minor blip in his overall career body of work, the fact that he only recently signed a record (for a pitcher) seven-year, $215M contract extension is the elephant in the room.

What if Kershaw’s days as a force of nature are over, or numbered? Why has the industry’s perfectly understandable previous aversion to extremely long contract extensions for pitchers seemingly been cast aside? What does the future hold for the recent beneficiaries – like Kershaw, Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander – of the clubs’ recent change in approach? Let’s take a look at some names from the game’s past to get a feel for these pitchers’ respective futures. Read the rest of this entry »

The week leading up to Opening Day 2014 turned out to be quite historic, with the clear two best players in the game locked into long-term contracts guaranteeing them nearly a cool half-billion. Obviously, the prognosis for the respective long-term efficacy of the two deals varies dramatically, with Cabrera’s extension locking up his age 33-40 seasons, compared to Trout’s doing the same to his age 23-28 campaigns. This week, let’s take a step back and put these two greats into some sort of historical perspective, then use that perspective to research their aging curves in order make some educated judgments regarding the Tigers’ and Angels’ investments. Today, let’s look at Mike Trout. Read the rest of this entry »

The week leading up to Opening Day 2014 turned out to be quite historic, with the clear two best players in the game locked into long-term contracts guaranteeing them nearly a cool half-billion. Obviously, the prognosis for the respective long-term efficacy of the two deals varies dramatically, with Cabrera’s extension locking up his age 33-40 seasons, compared to Trout’s doing the same to his age 23-28 campaigns. This week, let’s take a step back and put these two greats into some sort of historical perspective, then use that perspective to research their aging curves in order make some educated judgments regarding the Tigers’ and Angels’ investments. Today, let’s look at Miguel Cabrera. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past two weeks, we’ve been taking a look at some of the most interesting teams in baseball – one contender and one rebuilder from each league. What makes a team “interesting”? Taking advantage of the extreme nature of its ballpark, for a couple of clubs. Bucking some of the game’s most prevalent current trends and having success, for another. Or almost completely breaking from every pattern displayed in a club’s fairly successful recent past. In this final installment, let’s look at our NL rebuilder, the Colorado Rockies, who finally may have developed a concrete plan of attacking their ever-present conundrum – how on earth does one build a winning ballclub in Coors Field? Read the rest of this entry »