This is the second part of a three-part series highlighting a 20-year history of first-round catchers.

Since 2003, another 24 catchers have been drafted in the first round. This includes a 2007 draft that saw eight catchers taken, starting with Matt Wieters and ending with Ed Easley. Seven of those players have already reached the Majors with varying degrees of success: Wieters, Daric Barton, Mitch Maier, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Landon Powell, Josh Donaldson and Jeff Clement (I’m not counting Buster Posey). Two of the 24 can already be qualified as busts, as neither Jon Poterson or Max Sapp are playing professional baseball. That leaves us with 15 players today to discuss.

Neil Walker, Pirates, 24, AAA, .336/.404/.601

Never good enough defensively to be a catcher, never enough bat for the third base experiment to work. But he’s competent and consistent, and now capable of playing first, second, third, left field and probably serves that emergency catcher role. He’ll be on a big league bench.

Brandon Snyder, Orioles, 23, AAA, .200/.289/.300

Snyder has shown some nice offensive improvements since his disastrous 2006 full-season debut, but has fallen off a cliff since reaching Norfolk in midseason 2009. I don’t see 2 WAR ever happening, as good as his 58 games at Bowie almost had me fooled.

Hank Conger, Angels, 22, AAA, .240/.325/.385

The warning sign I saw consistently with busts is a significant drop-off once reaching Double-A. At first blush, Conger’s 58-point OPS drop looks as it qualifies. But when considering the context — a tougher offensive environment, far more PA’s, improved patience — he actually improved. Conger isn’t the power bat we thought he might become, but if his defense allows it, his contact ability could certainly see him become Mike Lieberthal.

Devin Mesoraco, Reds, 22, High-A, .328/.418/.608

Was written off a little fast, considering his first two seasons were the Midwest League at 20 (.710 OPS, 83 G) and the Florida State League at 21 (.692 OPS, 92 G). He’s healthy now, and in the same place as a lot of his peers that chose to attend college instead. Showing every skill, including improved defense. I think he was written off too early, but I wait to see how he handles Double-A to elevate his prospect status too heavily.

J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays, 24, AAA, .226/.299/.391

I’m a little concerned about Arencibia. He was given much praise after a 2009 hot start in the FSL, but that was just half a season. He then finished that year up with a .282/.302/.496 line in Double-A, and now through 146 career AAA games, has a line of .234/.287/.434. There is juice in the bat, no other real skill. I don’t have high expectations.

Travis d’Arnaud, Blue Jays, 21, High-A, .328/.362/.547

On the shelf with a backstrain, d’Arnaud looked like he might be having a breakthrough season. There is a lot to like, but there is also a long way to go. Can’t wait to see what he can do when healthy.

Jackson Williams, Giants, 24, AA, .225/.389/.348

Has improved going up the ladder, but he started so low, that I’m not sure the future holds much. He was a budgetary pick the season the Giants had three first round picks, and is known more for his defense. It would be a smart thing for Williams to continue with this newfound patience, as defense and patience could lead to a long career backing up Buster Posey.

Mitch Canham, Padres, 25, AA, .200/.296/.290

It’s not looking good for Canham, who is the one person on the list so far that I really can’t see playing in the Major Leagues.

Ed Easley, Diamondbacks, 24, AA, .273/.377/.364

No power and marginal defensive skills aren’t a good combination. Easley was a questionable first-round pick when it happened, and he’s done nothing to make me think he’s a Major Leaguer.

Buster Posey, Giants, 23, AAA, .338/.435/.535

And has thrown out 46% of opposing baserunners. The Giants affinity to Bengie Molina remains the most baffling aspect of this Major League season for me. #freebuster

Kyle Skipworth, Marlins, 20, Low-A, .273/.329/.516

If the Marlins had taken the conservative route with Skipworth and held him until short-season ball last year, his prospect status would be much higher today. As it stands, Skipworth is repeating Low-A, and doing a very nice job of it. His defense is much improved, the power is back. But his 10/43 walk-to-strikeout rate leaves much to be desired. I don’t have real high hopes, but the talent is there.

Jason Castro, Astros, 23, AAA, .259/.394/.296

Has now played 96 games above the California League, and has 19 extra-base hits in 400 plate appearances. I like the defense, I like the walk rate, and he makes enough contact. But until Castro starts to hit the ball with authority, the brightness of his future is in question. A good-not-great prospect.

Tony Sanchez, Pirates, 22, High-A, .294/.401/.460

This is, to a degree, where Castro was a year ago. The difference is that Sanchez is doing it in a much more difficult environment, and is much less polished defensively. He’s going to make the Majors, but the chance of him becoming a star doesn’t seem high for me.

Steven Baron, Mariners, 19, Low-A, .176/.208/.231

There was a lot of wondering why the Mariners were so into Baron, and it isn’t going to stop soon. Baron is overmatched as a teenager in the Midwest League, and not waiting to play him in the Northwest League seems like a bad decision. If he makes the Majors down the road, it will not be for his bat. But that will have to come a long way to even have that discussion.

Josh Phegley, White Sox.

Phegley is currently on the Disabled List with ITP Syndrome, a virus that attacks platelets in your body. Baseball has been put on hold for the Indiana University product, and we wish him the best of luck in his comeback.

We learned yesterday that just 8 of the 31 catchers drafted in a 15-year stretch ever contributed 12 WAR or more at the Major League level. If so, we can expect just 3-4 members of this group to do it. My guess is Posey, one of Sanchez/Castro, d’Arnaud and one of Conger/Mesoraco.

Yesterday, Erik Manning penned a really nice reminder piece about the lackluster history of first round draft picks. I have seen the traffic jumps at enough websites to know that fans are becoming really interested in their respective organization’s bonus babies, but it’s important that pieces like Erik remind us what we’re getting into. With his permission, I’m kicking off a series in which I look at this position by position, with 3 elements: 15 years of history at a given position (in a similar manner to Erik’s), then a look at current minor leaguers at that position, and finally, a look at the prospective first round draftees. We’ll see how it goes, but we begin today with the backstops.

From 1988-2002, thirty-one catchers were drafted in the first round of the June Amateur Draft. Ten draftees would never play in the Major Leagues, a group that includes six high school picks, the one junior college player, and three college guys. Another eight picks can safely be called busts, having produced between -2.4 and 0.1 WAR at the big league level. This group consists of five college players and three high school busts. This leaves 13 players that have produced 2 WAR or greater in the Majors. Here they are, ranked by their pre-2010 career WAR, according to Rally’s historical database:

Name               WAR    From
Jason Kendall      37.1    HS
Joe Mauer          33.1    HS
Jason Varitek      22.6     U
Charles Johnson    21.9     U
Paul Konerko       17.2    HS
Mike Lieberthal    15.4    HS
Dan Wilson         13.7     U
Jayson Werth       13.4    HS
Scott Hatteberg     8.5     U
Brent Mayne         4.2     U
Ramon Castro        3.0    PR
Ben Davis           3.0    HS
Mark Johnson        2.0    HS

So, we have certainly established that the “boom or bust” perception of high school draftees holds water with the catcher position, which had a higher percentage of busts, but also the better production of WAR in the Majors. You can see that three players that were drafted as catchers — Paul Konerko, Jayson Werth, Scott Hatteberg — would have varying degrees of success in the Majors at a different position. My next step was to look at their minor league performances to try and identify some common theme. This began with looking at their builds on the minor league pages at Baseball-Reference.

Builds

I see three subsets of builds that are common among the 13 players. First, we have the smallish catchers, between 6-0 and 6-1, from 170 to 190 pounds. This consisted of these five catchers: Kendall, Lieberthal, Hatteberg, Mayne, and Johnson. Then, you have the guys that are 6-2 and 6-3, with their weight usually in the 200’s: Varitek, Johnson, Konerko, Wilson, Castro. And then the odd ducks are the tall guys: Joe Mauer, Jayson Werth and Ben Davis. While there is some variance within each subset, I think these work as solid outlines.

Low-A Production

Eight of the 13 players spent time in Low-A, with University of Miami product Charles Johnson producing the best (.827 OPS) batting line, and high school draftee Mark Johnson (.624 OPS) as the worst. The other six were all between .677 and .785 in the OPS column. And those numbers, I should mention, are what the top two catchers in this study, Jason Kendall and Joe Mauer, respectively produced at the level.

High-A Production

This is definitely where you can begin to separate the men from the boys. Five players had an OPS above .780, from highest to lowest in this order: Kendall, Mauer, Paul Konerko, Mark Johnson and Jayson Werth. This group is still in the process of completing very solid big league careers. Then, you have the three that were below .720 in OPS: Ramon Castro, Ben Davis and Scott Hatteberg. Not as solid.

Double-A Production

A wide variance again, but again, it’s Kendall, Mauer, Konerko leading the way, accompanied by Mark and Charles Johnson. For what it’s worth, first round catchers seem to speak well for using MLE’s in long-term projections: the best players performed the best at High-A and above. Only Jason Varitek (.733 OPS) seems to buck the trend.

Triple-A Production

I tend not to look at these numbers much, because there is a lot of noise. But Paul Konerko dominated AAA (1.030 OPS), while guys like Davis, Liberthal and Dan Wilson really struggled. Mark Johnson and Ramon Castro have been AAA lifers, and have proven themselves as full-fledged Quad-A players. Not a lot to look at here.

Bust Production

Of course, none of the above helps us identify busts if we don’t compare it with the 58% of first round catchers that were not successful in the Majors. It would be nice if all the busts were like Scott Heard or Jim Gonzalez, guys that were bad out of the gate and never teased prospect analysts. But how do we explain guys like Jeff Mathis?

What I’ve found from a lot of these players that separates them from the ones that would reach the Majors is a significant drop in production upon the move to Double-A. Mathis was deservedly a great prospect after a .884 OPS in High-A at a young age, but when he went down to .726 the next season, more warning signs should have gone off than actually did. Same holds true for marginal prospects like Ryan Christianson, and for a bad defensive player like Jeremy Brown. Finding a way to continue improving, and slight improvements from year to year might hold more weight than the numbers themselves.

Tomorrow, I’ll be back looking at the minor league players that were once first-round catchers, and see if they are on their way to becoming busts or big league success stories.

The Twins promoted 2009 first-round pick Kyle Gibson to Double-A yesterday on the heels of his seventh start in the Florida State League, which lowered his ERA to 1.87 in 43.1 innings. Gibson was the 22nd overall pick last season out of the University of Missouri, where he dropped in the draft due to concerns over a predraft stress fracture in his throwing arm. Minnesota’s great scouting department saw an opportunity to get great value — Gibson was a potential top 10 pick entering the spring — and gave him $1.85 million, more than five hundred thousand above slot.

Gibson is a prototypical Twins draftee, as he combines solid sinker-slider (and an improved changeup) stuff with fantastic command. He has walked 2.5 batters per nine so far this season, but should be capable of even better numbers than that down the road. But where the Twins have usually found success with flyball pitchers in the past — Baker, Slowey, Garza, etc. — Gibson promises to throw an arm into the Minnesota rotation capable of a 50% groundball rate. I say this with confidence both due to the scouting reports on the tilt he gets from a 6-6 frame, his command, and two starts this season:

April 19: His third start of the season, Gibson scattered seven hits and two earned runs in seven innings against Tampa’s High-A affiliate. However, most impressively, Gibson recorded 16 groundball outs, and not a single fly out. Of the seven hits, however, five were put in the air. Still, for the game, 18 of the 23 batters to put a ball in play hit it on the ground.

April 29: Gibson’s best start to date, he allowed just one hit and one walk in a complete game shutout against Jupiter. The lone hit was a groundball, one of 17 that he would induce on the game. Only one batter recorded a fly out, and not until the ninth inning.

After struggling in his first start — allowing two home runs and eight baserunners in just 3.2 innings — Gibson tightened things up and finished his Fort Myers career with this: 39.2 IP, 27 H, 6 ER, 0 HR, 10 BB, 33 K, and a GO/AO ratio of 6.3. He moves to a New Britain team that has a cumulative .333 BABIP, so Gibson will need better infield defense to find sustained success at this higher level. Redgardless of the outcome, I do think Gibson will be capable of helping the Twins as early as next season, and he might just be the top prospect in their loaded system at the moment. And again, the Twins scouting department comes off as one of the game’s smartest, getting some of the best value in the first round by rolling the dice on an injured pitcher.

After being swept by the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Cubs have informed top prospect Starlin Castro that he has been promoted to the Major League’s, according to ESPN’s Enrique Rojas. Castro will join the team for this weekend’s tilt in Cincinnati, and presumably, will become the starting shortstop, with Ryan Theriot moving across the bag to second base. Castro turned 20 on March 24, and has a cumulative 243 plate appearances above A-ball.

During those 57 games in Double-A, spread out over the last two seasons, Castro hit .332/.384/.482. In 26 games this year, Castro had failed to get a hit just four times, and recorded multi-hit games 16 times. The Cubs are calling him up following a four-game stretch where Castro went 9-for-17 with two walks and two extra-base hits. This winter, I profiled Castro in a two–part series, and found noticeable statistical, physical and positional similarities between Castro and Garry Templeton. The former Cardinal was also called up from Double-A at the age of 20, although he didn’t make his debut until August 9, 1976.

Before the season, I suggested the Atlanta Braves should not open the season with Jason Heyward on the 25-man roster, because it would cost the team a year of service time that could be added by just waiting three weeks. This is essentially the approach the Cubs have taken with Castro, signalling the team probably wanted to break north with him after a fantastic Spring Training, but given the service time, Castro’s age and the possibility of a Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker platoon working at second base, wisely decided against it. While this is surely a rash move that will draw ire from Cubs fans ready to compare Castro to Corey Patterson, and the Cubs will likely have Castro become a Super Two arbitration-eligible player, they have likely retained his rights for the 2016 season.

I can find 27 examples of a middle infielder debuting in the Major Leagues at 20, but just 7 examples in the last 30 years: Wally Backman, Roberto Alomar, Wil Cordero, Luis Castillo, Jose Reyes, Jose Lopez and Elvis Andrus. Of that group, only Andrus and Castillo made the jump, and Castillo would be returned to Triple-A for parts of the next two seasons. The Cubs are in rare, but not uncharted, territory with this aggressive promotion of an elite talent. On Monday, I plan to further investigate whether this is any effect of a prospect being “rushed” by jumping Triple-A.

There will be varied opinions on how this move will effect Castro’s development, there is also the factor of whether or not Castro will make the Cubs better. Castro is essentially replacing the duo of Fontenot and Baker, a second base team that has put up a cumulative .262/.310/.346 batting line this year. ZiPS had Fontenot projected at .266/.331/.406 the rest of the season, and Baker at a similar .258/.319/.429. This .330 wOBA is Castro’s benchmark, a level he must hit at for Jim Hendry’s drastic move to hold any kind of water. There are also the defensive ramifications, as Baker and Fontenot both had 1.5 UZR through the last fielding update.

In Ryan Theriot’s career, he has 536 innings at second base, and nearly 3,700 at shortstop. He’s been +16.5 UZR/150 in his limited time at second, and has established himself as +4.5 UZR/150 at shortstop. The reports on Castro’s defense have varied, but at worst, the agreements seem to praise his plus arm and caution his average range. Castro must be +5 UZR/150 at shortstop this year, and Theriot will have to continue to be an excellent up the middle defender.

However this is portrayed by people, the Cubs did not call up Castro on a whim. Whether the thinking behind the move is misguided will be a consistent point of discussion during Castro’s tenure on the north side, and it will begin with the wins and losses this team sees as a result of their middle infield play this season. If Castro doesn’t have a .330 wOBA and +5 UZR/150 defense, then I really can’t justify what Jim Hendry is trying to do here. As I said, the benchmark has been set.

I continue to steal from Dave Cameron’s review format below. Here’s what seems clear after a month of minor league action:

Brandon Belt likes wood.

What a coup it was when the Texas Longhorns managed to convince Brandon Belt to come to Austin, rather than sign with the Atlanta Braves, following his freshman season at San Jacinto Junior College. Belt was considered one of the top JuCo transfers in the nation, a big left-handed slugger that could double as a power southpaw out of the bullpen. However, in two seasons with Texas, Belt never took the jump that scouts and coaches alike expected. Yes, his junior season he still sported a .329/.429/.532 batting line, but by college first base standards, this is hardly other-worldly.

Given his build, his potential, his batting practice showings, Belt still showed enough to be drafted in the fifth round last season by the San Francisco Giants. Assigned to San Jose of the California League for his professional debut, Belt has been a revelation since moving to wood bats. He is one of four hitters in the minors batting .400, he leads the minors with a .510 on-base percentage, and his .640 slugging ranks 14th. Belt has essentially been platooned with the SJ Giants — he only has 8 AB against LHP — but is showing patience, bat control and gap power that make him a real prospect.

In 75 at-bats through 24 games, Belt has just 8 strikeouts against 17 walks. He has 12 extra-base hits, and has even managed seven steals. This is what Augie Garrido and the Texas staff thought they were getting when Belt arrived in Austin, but Belt is showing the rare skill to have more comfort with wood than aluminum. He is a real prospect, and looks to be a great pick by San Francisco.

Derek Holland should be in the Majors.

The Rangers are experiencing a wild change in fortune this season, as, for the first time in who-knows-how-long, the pitching staff (121 ERA+) is currently outpacing the offensive output (82 OPS+). I don’t know how long this will last — Justin Smoak hasn’t hit his stride, Nelson Cruz is on the shelf — but it’s clear that with C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis and even Rich Harden, the Texas staff is the best it has been in awhile. And yet, it could be better.

We have written before on this site about Derek Holland’s misfortune last season — a 6.12 ERA vs. a 4.38 xFIP. And when Holland suffered an injury in Spring Training, it became pretty clear that he had earned a ticket back to Triple-A. But now through six minor league starts, it seems silly for him to be wasting time with minor league hitters. Through 38.2 innings, Holland has allowed one home run, 7 walks and struck out 37 batters (0.93 ERA). He is ready.

When the realization hits that Scott Feldman isn’t good, or that Holland is better than Matt Harrison, I don’t know. But locked in a dogfight division, the Rangers would be best served finding clarity about their best pitching staff soon.

The Giants farm system just wins, baby.

More a fun tidbit than a telling statistic, I do think it’s noteworthy that the San Francisco Giants four minor league affiliates are a combined 61-42, two games better in the standings than any other Major League team. This is not indicative, nor should it be a factor, of any farm system rankings (the Mets are second), but I do think the 21 point advantage the Giants have in winning percentage over their competition is noteworthy.

The Low-A Augusta Greenjackets are 16-11, and have received a team-leading five home runs from catcher Tommy Joseph, and 2009 first-round pick Zack Wheeler’s last two starts have been great: 9.2 innings, 6 hits, 0 ER, 6 walks, 13 strikeouts. I’ve mentioned Belt’s contributions to the 13-11 San Jose Giants, who have another college bloomer in former NC State ace Eric Surkamp, who continues to be brilliant in all three FIP categories.

The Richmond Flying Squirrels, the Giants new Double-A affiliate, are 15-11 despite little contributions from actual prospects: Thomas Neal (.235/.324/.357), Brandon Crawford (.224/.324/.353) or Roger Kieschnick (.284/.324/.337). Leading the charge are the 17-9 Fresno Grizzlies,armed with Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner, but getting their biggest contributions from good ol’ Joe Borchard, hitting .360/.455/.640.

Florida Marlins OF prospect Mike Stanton leads all the minor leagues with 13 home runs in 25 games. He’s playing in a league that typically depresses run scoring, in a home park that (as recently as two years ago) doesn’t make home runs easy (.94 HR Park Factor). If Stanton continues at this torrid pace, he will almost surely bypass AAA and move straight to Miami. Until then, he’ll have to make do as the Minors Top Hitting Prospect.

When he does get the call, teams will scramble for scouting reports to look for an edge over the Marlins newest toy. Talents like Stanton are the types that can swing a race in the second half, so you can bet NL East teams are hot after the big slugger’s weaknesses. He hasn’t shown many this year, but I thought going over a spray chart of his balls in play might tell us something. It does.

The 13 Home Runs

In all, we have six home runs to left, two to left-center, three to center field, and two home runs hit the opposite way. Six were off pitchers that have, at one time or another, been praised as legit big league prospects: Erik Cordier, Jake Thompson, Sean Watson, Dallas Buck, Justin Cassel and Nick Hill. Three home runs were against left-handed pitchers, and just two were on the road, but this is more a product of opportunity than an indictment of weakness.

The Ball-in-Play Hits

Culled from the play-by-play logs at MiLB.com, these certainly bear out some interesting results. Stanton has 18 hits this season that didn’t clear the fence: 12 singles and six doubles. Of those hits, six were classified as line drives, two as fly balls, and 10 as ground balls.

But most interesting is this; only 1 of the 18 hits was collected by a fielder on the right side; a line drive double on April 28. Of the other 17 hits, four were collected by the center fielder, four by an infielder on the left side, and the remaining nine went to left field. This means that throwing in the home runs, of Stanton’s 31 hits this season, just three have been hit the opposite way.

The Ball-in-Play Ground Outs

In total, Stanton has made 32 ball-in-play outs this season, and 14 of them have been ground balls. Again, we see a pull-heavy approach from the slugger. Half of his ground outs this season have been to the shortstop, and three more to the third baseman. Given that one ground out was to the pitcher, Stanton has grounded out to the right side just three times.

The Ball-in-Play Air Outs

First of all, I should note, Stanton has popped out to an infielder seven times this season. I don’t know how telling this is for the purposes of creating a spray chart, as an infield fly is just a ball that comes off the bat wrong. But it also represents Stanton’s most consistent opposite field approach: four of his seven infield flies when to the 1B or 2B.

This leaves us with 11 fly outs, which actually are a little more proportionate than the rest of his balls in play. Stanton has recorded an out to the left fielder five times, to the center fielder three times, and to the right fielder three times. That includes his lone sacrifice fly on the season, which went to right.

Note on the Danger of Minor League Batted Ball Conclusions

Not once this season has Mike Stanton recorded an out, and it noted in the play by play logs as a line drive. This classification seems to be very after-the-fact, so this should serve as a cautionary tale of drawing conclusions in a minor league prospect’s LD% or FB%. I can say however, with some confidence, that Stanton has a 11.1 IFFB% this season. But I just can’t believe he’s really hitting 1.000/1.000/2.375 on line drives this season. Whether his actual GB% is 38.1%, or his HR/FB% is actually 40.6%, as the play-by-play logs suggest, I leave that up to you.

Conclusions

Of course, sample size warnings apply here quite a bit, especially because Stanton only has 63 balls in play this season. Fans of True Three Outcomes players will be thrilled that one of their own is baseball’s top hitting prospect, as Stanton’s TTO% is 56.8% through 25 games.

If the Marlins do summon Stanton to Miami this season, you can bet that teams will know just how pull-heavy he really is. Of those 63 balls in play, just 13 (20.6%) have been hit the opposite way. If we remove infield flies from that number, we get 9 out of 56 (16.1%). While we don’t yet have the data to know Stanton’s preferences against different pitch types, his pull-happy nature should suggest that teams pitch him outside early and often when he debuts.

Whether it’s the lack of tradeable picks, the problems signing draftees, or the wait to see draftees help at the Major League level, the baseball Amateur Draft is the least accessible draft of any major sport. And every year, as more fans become interested in the draft, I always get questions from confused people that don’t understand why their team — that doesn’t have a viable third baseman in the organization — doesn’t take Joe Schmo, a solid third base prospect from College X.

In a sport that admirably sticks to Best Player Available more than any other, it is worth wondering what the draft might look like if a farm system’s strengths and weaknesses were considered. Because it’s a nice way to review these farms, and review potential top 10 prospects, I’ve looked into this alternate reality today. This is no projection of what will happen in one month, but a thought exercise on what could if teams took a more macro view in their draft rooms.

1. Washington Nationals. The most important need for the Nationals is identity and profit margin, and the only prospect in this draft that can effect either is Bryce Harper. Yes, they have Derek Norris behind the plate, but it’s not as if Harper’s value is tied to his position. It’s tied to his bat, and frankly, it’s also tied to his hype. Signing the two most hyped prospects of the decade will create real interest in this franchise. The pick: Bryce Harper.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates. A 6.79 team ERA doesn’t even tell the full story on how bad the Pirates need pitching in their system. There are some arms that have varying degrees of supporters (Morris, Lincoln, Owens, Locke) and some solid arms in Extended Spring Training, but not nearly enough to match an offense that should have Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen blossoming simultaneously. They need a pitcher that will be ready then. The pick: Deck McGuire.

3. Baltimore Orioles. While the offensive core of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis is more accomplished, I believe the young pitching that Baltimore has dedicated to developing is their real strength. You have Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, followed by lots of depth from Zach Britton to Matt Hobgood. So I think this team could use some athleticism up the middle to pair with that offensive core, someone to pair with last year’s pick of Mychael Givens. The pick: Manny Machado.

4. Kansas City Royals. The Royals would be tempted to take Jameson Taillon, but for the purpose of this article, I think Mike Montgomery, Tim Melville, Tyler Sample and others meets KC’s quota for projectable prep pitchers. The breakouts of Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are encouraging, but search far and wide, and you don’t see outfielders anywhere in this system. This draft doesn’t line up perfectly for that type of player, but in this exercise, we have to fill the need. The pick: Michael Choice.

5. Cleveland Indians. The deepest farm system in baseball, so the most difficult to choose a weakness. But while I’ve praised the depth of pitchers in the organization, a lot of them are guys that might end up as relievers: Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Alex White and others. You can never have too much pitching, and given the collection they have, someone set on the starter-or-bust path would fit well with the other arms. The pick: Karsten Whitson.

6. Arizona Diamondbacks. A lot of Arizona’s youth is in the Major Leagues, leaving the minor leagues lacking much talent. The team ERA nearing 6, and the lack of any discernible healthy pitching prospect means the Snakes should certainly head in that direction. They won’t have this Major League offensive core forever, so they might also prefer a college arm that will reach the Majors in time for Justin Upton’s peak. The pick: Drew Pomeranz.

7. New York Mets. This has been praised as a pitching-heavy draft, and that’s good, because this is another team that needs more pitching. Jeurys Familia and Kyle Allen are struggling, Jennry Mejia is in the bullpen, and a guy like Brad Holt has not broke out like expected. This team also should show its fan base that they will spend in the draft, something they have not done in a few years. Landing the top high school arm fits both “needs”. The pick: Jameson Taillon.

8. Houston Astros. One of the Major League’s weakest farm systems, although if you want to get positive, Jordan Lyles and Tanner Bushue are a pair of recently drafted pitchers that turned in very good Aprils. You can’t say the same for any offensive prospect south of Koby Clemens, and even the highly touted players they do have (Jason Castro, Jio Mier) aren’t players that figure to fit in the middle of the order. They need power. The pick: Zack Cox.

9. San Diego Padres. I would guess that few organizations had a more discouraging April on the farm than the Padres. Yes, Drew Cumberland is finally healthy, and Simon Castro is capable of handling Double-A, but everywhere else you look, prospects are slumping. The outfield and third base are the two things that San Diego doesn’t need, but I still think building an offense should be the first priority. The pick: Christian Colon.

10. Oakland Athletics. Let’s run down the list. The catcher position has Suzuki in the Majors, Stassi’s investment in the minors. First base is a logjam led by Chris Carter. Second base should be held down by Jemile Weeks, although the team still has hopes for Eric Sogard. Shortstop is a mix between Cliff Pennington and Grant Green. Third base is a weakness, but Zack Cox is gone. There is a lot of depth in the outfield. So, given the adage that you can never have too much pitching, and because this draft supports that ideology, we’re going there. The pick: Chris Sale.

The lessons from week three on the farm.

Carlos Peguero and Koby Clemens can hit for power outside of California.

In 2008, Peguero and Clemens were both sent to High-A for the first time as 21 year olds. After a modest cumulative line of .283/.345/.451, the Mariners and Astros respectively opted to return them to High-A in 2009. This time both in the California League, they were among the hitter haven league’s most dangerous players, Peguero hitting .271/.335/.560 while Clemens posted a career-best .345/.419/.636 batting line. However, neither was given much publicity this winter as an offensive prospect, as the assumption was that both had seen inflation effects due to playing in High Desert and Lancaster.

In the last week, Peguero accumulated a hit in every game (dropping his average to .378, somehow), and hit six home runs to join Mike Stanton atop the minor league home run leaderboard (with 9 total). Clemens wasn’t as prolific, but with two more homers, he’s leading the Texas League with seven jacks through 19 games. Now scouts and prospect analysts alike are being forced to retrace our steps, and make sure the initial opinions of these players were fair. I think it was with Clemens, certainly, who has now been relegated to first base and strikes out too often. His patience was always slightly above-average, but not enough to handle the offense needed to stay at first base. I’m now guessing he eventually spends time in the Major Leagues, a testament to a lot of improvement in 2-3 years, but I’d be surprised if he spent much time starting.

Peguero, on the other hand, might be something. Strikeouts have always been his problem, but the whiffs are down significantly this season. The power has always been there, but there is nothing untapped about it anymore. A team like the Mariners, low on power and in a field beneficial to left-handed pull hitters, might be able to get something out of a guy like this.

Ethan Hollingsworth has a good FIP.

Zero home runs. One walk, two HBP’s. Twenty-five strikeouts. 26 innings in four starts. All told, we’re talking about a FIP of 1.62 for the Colorado Rockies fourth-round pick in the 2008 Amateur Draft. In the California League.

Last season had to be considered a disappointment for the 22-year-old Western Michigan product, as he posted a 4.37 ERA between Low- and High-A. But taken in context, and things look a little better. First, half his season was in Asheville, the South Atlantic League’s most hitter-friendly environment. His ERA splits in that league were telling: 6.07 ERA at home, 2.06 on the road. Then he went to the California League, an environment death on pitchers and fielders alike. While plagued by 77 hits allowed in 59.3 innings there, the .392 BABIP certainly seemed a little high.

Back in Modesto to start this season, Hollingsworth isn’t giving his fielders much to work with. He’s a pretty traditional low-90s, 4-pitch guy, but there’s something to be said for those pitchers that have the confidence to attack the zone with their stuff. I always go back to a guy like Joe Mays when thinking about pitchers like Hollingsworth, and if Mays can have middling success in the Majors, I don’t see why Hollingsworth can’t, too.

The Salem Red Sox have a good middle of the order.

Three players on the High-A Salem Red Sox roster are responsible for 13 of the team’s 19 home runs. These three are batting .365 and slugging .630, while the rest of the team is hitting .247 with a .365 SLG. There is just no denying that the 14-6 Red Sox owe their winning record to the performances of Ryan Lavarnway, Will Middlebrooks and Oscar Tejeda.

Lavarnway is the elder statesman of the group, as he will turn 23 in August. A sixth-round pick in 2008 out of Yale, Lavarnway was a guy that hit .467/.531/.873 as a sophomore, and followed it up with an injury-shortened .398/.541/.824 junior season. While his catching abilities are debateable, as he’s fairly green at the position, and is still only splitting time there this season. But the bat will play, as he’s now at .360/.407/.667. I’d like to see Boston commit to turning him into a catcher while challenging his bat, so we can really see what’s here.

Middlebrooks was a guy the Red Sox bought away from a two-sport scholarship at Texas A&M on the signing deadline in 2007, and has looked very raw ever since. But things seem to be coming together a bit for Middlebrooks this year, and he’s now showing some consistent patience and gap power. He’s hitting .353/.421/.559 in the earlygoing, and continuing to show off a rocket arm at the hot corner.

Finally, there is Tejeda, the youngest of the sluggers at just 20 years old. You can sort of tell as much, what with his 17-1 K/BB ratio through 78 plate appearances. But he’s also growing up quickly, as his five home runs are already the highest he’s hit in a single-season. Anytime a 20-year-old middle infield is hitting .382/.385/.658 in High-A, it’s big time news. While I’m not as quick to anoint him as a breakout prospect as I am Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, he might just be the one with the biggest potential of all.

Kansas City Royals top pitching prospect Mike Montgomery was promoted to Double-A yesterday, so in all likelihood, the record books will read his Carolina League career thusly: 90 batters faced, 33 strikeouts versus 4 walks, 14 hits, 1.71 GO/AO ratio, five runs allowed. His second start, a 13 strikeout, 2 hit, 1 run performance over seven innings was called by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper (on Twitter), “[the] best minor league pitching performance I’ve ever seen in person.”

Montgomery, who will turn 21 on July 1, is headed to a more advanced, more offensive-friendly atmosphere, and away from the cozy confines of Wilmington. But if anyone is geared to succeed at such a young age in Double-A, it’s a 6-5 southpaw (death against left-handed hitters) capable of touching 95 mph with quickly-advancing secondary stuff. On the whole, we’re talking about a guy that has thrust himself into the argument of the Minors Top Southpaw, joining a group that already features a pair of future aces in Aroldis Chapman and Martin Perez.

This early season success story isn’t the only good news on the Kansas City farm front, as we have seen a bounce back year from a number of Royals prospects. Surely none more than former first-round pick Eric Hosmer, who reached base four times last night to increase his batting line to a rather ridiculous .446/.532/.631. Hosmer has drawn 12 walks in 78 plate appearances, and has a strikeout rate just north of 12%. With healthy eyes and a healthy hand, Hosmer is regaining the status that made him the 2008 draft’s consensus top prep slugger. You have to think at some point the Royals will look to get him out of Wilmington and to Northwest Arkansas, an environment more conducive to showing off the prodigious power that has been praised more in batting practices than games thus far in his career.

This might have been the rationale behind Mike Moustakas moving up to Double-A this season, as he was a candidate to repeat High-A after his poor 2009 season. I can testify to Moustakas’ ability to put on a batting practice show the same as Hosmer, so the Royals brass had to be encouraged when he began his season (late, due to a minor injury) with a two home run performance last Thursday. The California product added another blast on Saturday, and has struck out just once in his first 22 plate appearances at Double-A. While plate discipline will always be one area that Alex Gordon holds the advantage, Moustakas is quickly closing the gap in all the other areas of the game.

When the Royals minor league season began with the surprise retirement of Danny Duffy, it looked like the Royals 2010 season was bound to be as comical at the minor league level as it was in the Major Leagues. But things are looking a little brighter with the early season performances of Montgomery, Hosmer and Moustakas. Here are the other highs and lows we’ve seen through the first 18 games of the minor league season:

— Aaron Crow is getting groundballs (3.33 GO/AO), but not strikeouts (5.0 K/9) through four Double-A starts. Most concerning are the five home runs allowed, although this also means we are seeing an unsustainably high BABIP (.348) and HR/FB%. The strikeouts are all that concerns me so far.

— You have to love the re-emergence of Johnny Giavotella, who is hitting .377/.473/.459 through 17 games in Double-A. The little second baseman has been especially hot in his last eight games, where he’s 17-or-32 with six walks. Not like the Royals could use it.

— Not a long of good things are showing up in Tim Melville’s lines in Wilmington, as he’s allowed something like 34 of the 70 batters he has faced to reach base. I’ve yet to hear a good explanation for the struggles, which might be as simple as he’s unable to find the strike zone. Too early to worry, but you can’t count him as an early season success story.

— How about Derrick Robinson and his .308/.400/.462 batting line? Most impressive are the 10 walks in 17 games, including two yesterday, which led to a perfect 4-for-4 day on the basepaths. This almost reminds me of when the light finally came on for Denard Span in 2008, and he realized just how dangerous a patient, fleet-footed, slap hitter could be.

— The dominance that Wil Myers showed in short-season ball last year might not have been a good thing for him, because I’m not sure the Royals would have sent him to the Midwest League at 19 years old otherwise. The .225/.282/.408 batting line isn’t where you’d like it, but look between the lines and there’s some good things: two home runs in last 3 games, a 1.013 OPS in a tiny sample vs. LHP, and he’s thrown out 7-of-17 baserunners. Like most MWL teenagers, he’s in over his head, but he has the talent to have long-term success in Burlington.

— Out goes Danny Duffy, in comes John Lamb as the second southpaw in the Royals farm system. Lamb’s full season debut, also at 19 in Burlington, has begun exquisitely, with a 1.00 ERA, 23 strikeouts and 23 baserunners in 18 innings. I am depressed to have missed seeing Lamb live two weeks ago, but early praise has been around the advancement of his change-up, giving a real second weapon against right-handed hitters. He’s one to look out for.

Ultimately, the reason we gave Kansas City the nod over Houston for the #29 spot in our organizational rankings was because the Royals had more upside in their minor league system. Depth is always nice in the minors, but most important is the development of stars. I see a few with the potential listed above, and that might just lead to an improvement upon #29 next year.

Looking to fill the void of injured Designated Hitter Carlos Guillen, the Tigers called up one of the minor leagues’ hottest hitters, and their number 8 prospect (as ranked by Marc Hulet), Brennan Boesch. A third-round pick in the 2006 draft, Boesch was hitting .379/.455/.621 in his first season in Triple-A, and figures to be a regular against right-handed pitchers in the Tigers lineup.

This newfound role could be a sign of things to come, as Hulet wrote in his Tigers prospect rankings that, “[Boesch’s] career OPS of .654 against southpaws suggests that a platoon role is in Boesch’s MLB future.” This has continued to look true in Toledo, where Boesch is hitting an empty (no BB, no XBH) .294 against LHP’s. Since we haven’t evaluated a prospect in WAR terms in awhile, let’s unscientifically see what Boesch could become if relegated to platoon status in his team-controlled seasons. Going through the peripheral skills:

Playing Time: We’re going to just look at the platoon outcome for his career today, which would mean something between 500-550 plate appearances per season. We’ll middle it, and give Boesch +17.5 in replacement per season.

Position: Replacing Guillen and his big frame might make people think Boesch is a DH, but playing him as such would be a waste. To quote Baseball America’s summation of him before the 2006 draft, which still holds true today, “Boesch has significant athletic ability for a big man, allowing him to move well for his size, and could play either outfield corner thanks to a slightly above-average arm and average speed.” So let’s go with -6 for his corner outfield positional adjustment, and +2.5 for his defense.

Power: The strength of Boesch’s game. He led the Eastern League with 28 home runs in the hitter-friendly Erie park last season, but only hit 17 home runs in 1,000 plate appearances in pitcher-friendly environments in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues in the two years prior. Still, given his 7 extra base hits in 66 plate appearances in Triple-A prior to the call-up, I am going to assume that Boesch can hit the long ball.

Plate Discipline: And, the weakness of Boesch’s game. To quote Kevin Goldstein, who ranked Boesch as the Tigers #15 prospect, “He’s a massive outfielder with massive power and massive holes in his swing.” I can recall many scouts worried that Boesch had a metal bat swing when he came out of Cal, and while the Tigers scouts rejection of that notion has been validated to some degree, Boesch swings through a lot of pitches. He also doesn’t walk much, with a career BB% between 6-6.5 percent. In 525 PA’s, I’d expect something like 31.5 walks and 115.5 strikeouts.

Doing some behind-the-scenes math work to these evaluations, I have Boesch something like .280/.328/.439 in the Majors, although I admit that’s a pessimistic power projection. This works out to a .338 wOBA, which would be something like +3.5 with the bat.

So, adding up our WAR calculation, I think that the Tiger scould expect about 1.75 WAR from Boesch given 525 plate appearances in a corner outfield platoon role. Detroit fans would probably like to think they could do better, so the play for Dave Dombrowski and company might be to trade Boesch this July should he have much success in this forthcoming cup of coffee.